SPC Sep 28, 2024 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

11 months 1 week ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Discussion... A weakening, positive-tilt mid/upper trough will drift east over the central/southern Appalachians. Similar to prior days, a confined belt of stronger mid-level southwesterlies will remain present from eastern Georgia into the eastern Carolinas. The surface pattern in the East will remain quite diffuse. Isolated thunderstorms are possible, mainly during Monday afternoon, centered on parts of central/eastern NC/VA. Weak mid/upper-level lapse rates and nebulous forcing for ascent will remain limiting factors to storm intensity. Daytime heating of a moist low-level airmass and lift from sea breeze boundaries will promote isolated to scattered thunderstorms in a weakly sheared environment across the Florida Peninsula. In the West, potential for very isolated afternoon thunderstorms should shift southeast from the eastern Great Basin on Sunday to the southern Rockies and Mogollon Rim on Monday. Scant buoyancy and nebulous large-scale ascent suggest thunderstorm probabilities are only around 10 percent. ..Grams.. 09/28/2024 Read more

SPC Sep 28, 2024 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

11 months 1 week ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely on Sunday. ...Eastern Great Basin... Very isolated thunderstorm development is possible on Sunday afternoon amid scattered high-based, low-topped convection. A low-amplitude mid-level low currently off the southern CA coast should progress into southern CA before stalling Sunday night. Weak forcing for ascent combined with recycled 700-mb moisture within the Four Corners States may be adequate for a 10 percent chance of thunderstorms. The more moist spectrum of guidance suggests buoyancy will remain scant. Even with the low thunder probability, very large surface temperature-dew point spreads will support dry microburst potential and locally strong gusts. ...Upper OH Valley to the Lower Mid-Atlantic... Ahead of the positive-tilt mid/upper trough drifting east across KY/TN, isolated lower-topped thunderstorms will be possible, mainly during Sunday afternoon. Mid-level temperatures will be relatively warm east-southeast of the trough and cooler to the northeast. Boundary-layer warming will be more limited with northern extent amid abundant cloud coverage and early-day showers. As such, instability will be weak regionwide. A confined belt of stronger mid-level southwesterlies should be over GA into the Carolinas. Within this sub-region, the warm temperatures and poor lapse rates aloft will probably hold thunder probs around 10 percent or less, yielding negligible severe concern. ..Grams.. 09/28/2024 Read more

SPC Sep 28, 2024 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

11 months 1 week ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely on Sunday. ...Eastern Great Basin... Very isolated thunderstorm development is possible on Sunday afternoon amid scattered high-based, low-topped convection. A low-amplitude mid-level low currently off the southern CA coast should progress into southern CA before stalling Sunday night. Weak forcing for ascent combined with recycled 700-mb moisture within the Four Corners States may be adequate for a 10 percent chance of thunderstorms. The more moist spectrum of guidance suggests buoyancy will remain scant. Even with the low thunder probability, very large surface temperature-dew point spreads will support dry microburst potential and locally strong gusts. ...Upper OH Valley to the Lower Mid-Atlantic... Ahead of the positive-tilt mid/upper trough drifting east across KY/TN, isolated lower-topped thunderstorms will be possible, mainly during Sunday afternoon. Mid-level temperatures will be relatively warm east-southeast of the trough and cooler to the northeast. Boundary-layer warming will be more limited with northern extent amid abundant cloud coverage and early-day showers. As such, instability will be weak regionwide. A confined belt of stronger mid-level southwesterlies should be over GA into the Carolinas. Within this sub-region, the warm temperatures and poor lapse rates aloft will probably hold thunder probs around 10 percent or less, yielding negligible severe concern. ..Grams.. 09/28/2024 Read more

SPC Sep 28, 2024 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

11 months 1 week ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely on Sunday. ...Eastern Great Basin... Very isolated thunderstorm development is possible on Sunday afternoon amid scattered high-based, low-topped convection. A low-amplitude mid-level low currently off the southern CA coast should progress into southern CA before stalling Sunday night. Weak forcing for ascent combined with recycled 700-mb moisture within the Four Corners States may be adequate for a 10 percent chance of thunderstorms. The more moist spectrum of guidance suggests buoyancy will remain scant. Even with the low thunder probability, very large surface temperature-dew point spreads will support dry microburst potential and locally strong gusts. ...Upper OH Valley to the Lower Mid-Atlantic... Ahead of the positive-tilt mid/upper trough drifting east across KY/TN, isolated lower-topped thunderstorms will be possible, mainly during Sunday afternoon. Mid-level temperatures will be relatively warm east-southeast of the trough and cooler to the northeast. Boundary-layer warming will be more limited with northern extent amid abundant cloud coverage and early-day showers. As such, instability will be weak regionwide. A confined belt of stronger mid-level southwesterlies should be over GA into the Carolinas. Within this sub-region, the warm temperatures and poor lapse rates aloft will probably hold thunder probs around 10 percent or less, yielding negligible severe concern. ..Grams.. 09/28/2024 Read more

SPC Sep 28, 2024 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

11 months 1 week ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely on Sunday. ...Eastern Great Basin... Very isolated thunderstorm development is possible on Sunday afternoon amid scattered high-based, low-topped convection. A low-amplitude mid-level low currently off the southern CA coast should progress into southern CA before stalling Sunday night. Weak forcing for ascent combined with recycled 700-mb moisture within the Four Corners States may be adequate for a 10 percent chance of thunderstorms. The more moist spectrum of guidance suggests buoyancy will remain scant. Even with the low thunder probability, very large surface temperature-dew point spreads will support dry microburst potential and locally strong gusts. ...Upper OH Valley to the Lower Mid-Atlantic... Ahead of the positive-tilt mid/upper trough drifting east across KY/TN, isolated lower-topped thunderstorms will be possible, mainly during Sunday afternoon. Mid-level temperatures will be relatively warm east-southeast of the trough and cooler to the northeast. Boundary-layer warming will be more limited with northern extent amid abundant cloud coverage and early-day showers. As such, instability will be weak regionwide. A confined belt of stronger mid-level southwesterlies should be over GA into the Carolinas. Within this sub-region, the warm temperatures and poor lapse rates aloft will probably hold thunder probs around 10 percent or less, yielding negligible severe concern. ..Grams.. 09/28/2024 Read more

SPC Sep 28, 2024 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

11 months 1 week ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely on Sunday. ...Eastern Great Basin... Very isolated thunderstorm development is possible on Sunday afternoon amid scattered high-based, low-topped convection. A low-amplitude mid-level low currently off the southern CA coast should progress into southern CA before stalling Sunday night. Weak forcing for ascent combined with recycled 700-mb moisture within the Four Corners States may be adequate for a 10 percent chance of thunderstorms. The more moist spectrum of guidance suggests buoyancy will remain scant. Even with the low thunder probability, very large surface temperature-dew point spreads will support dry microburst potential and locally strong gusts. ...Upper OH Valley to the Lower Mid-Atlantic... Ahead of the positive-tilt mid/upper trough drifting east across KY/TN, isolated lower-topped thunderstorms will be possible, mainly during Sunday afternoon. Mid-level temperatures will be relatively warm east-southeast of the trough and cooler to the northeast. Boundary-layer warming will be more limited with northern extent amid abundant cloud coverage and early-day showers. As such, instability will be weak regionwide. A confined belt of stronger mid-level southwesterlies should be over GA into the Carolinas. Within this sub-region, the warm temperatures and poor lapse rates aloft will probably hold thunder probs around 10 percent or less, yielding negligible severe concern. ..Grams.. 09/28/2024 Read more

SPC Sep 28, 2024 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

11 months 1 week ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely on Sunday. ...Eastern Great Basin... Very isolated thunderstorm development is possible on Sunday afternoon amid scattered high-based, low-topped convection. A low-amplitude mid-level low currently off the southern CA coast should progress into southern CA before stalling Sunday night. Weak forcing for ascent combined with recycled 700-mb moisture within the Four Corners States may be adequate for a 10 percent chance of thunderstorms. The more moist spectrum of guidance suggests buoyancy will remain scant. Even with the low thunder probability, very large surface temperature-dew point spreads will support dry microburst potential and locally strong gusts. ...Upper OH Valley to the Lower Mid-Atlantic... Ahead of the positive-tilt mid/upper trough drifting east across KY/TN, isolated lower-topped thunderstorms will be possible, mainly during Sunday afternoon. Mid-level temperatures will be relatively warm east-southeast of the trough and cooler to the northeast. Boundary-layer warming will be more limited with northern extent amid abundant cloud coverage and early-day showers. As such, instability will be weak regionwide. A confined belt of stronger mid-level southwesterlies should be over GA into the Carolinas. Within this sub-region, the warm temperatures and poor lapse rates aloft will probably hold thunder probs around 10 percent or less, yielding negligible severe concern. ..Grams.. 09/28/2024 Read more

SPC Sep 28, 2024 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

11 months 1 week ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. A relatively quiet convective day is forecast across the CONUS today. Afternoon thunderstorms may affect the higher terrain of northern NM and southern CO, as well as along a weak occluded front from lower MI into NY. Weak instability and limited shear will preclude severe storms. Scattered thunderstorms will also be possible this afternoon and tonight across the FL peninsula and along the GA/SC/NC coast. Weak winds aloft will limit the organization of these storms, with no severe activity expected. ..Hart/Weinman.. 09/28/2024 Read more

SPC Sep 28, 2024 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

11 months 1 week ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. A relatively quiet convective day is forecast across the CONUS today. Afternoon thunderstorms may affect the higher terrain of northern NM and southern CO, as well as along a weak occluded front from lower MI into NY. Weak instability and limited shear will preclude severe storms. Scattered thunderstorms will also be possible this afternoon and tonight across the FL peninsula and along the GA/SC/NC coast. Weak winds aloft will limit the organization of these storms, with no severe activity expected. ..Hart/Weinman.. 09/28/2024 Read more

SPC Sep 28, 2024 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

11 months 1 week ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. A relatively quiet convective day is forecast across the CONUS today. Afternoon thunderstorms may affect the higher terrain of northern NM and southern CO, as well as along a weak occluded front from lower MI into NY. Weak instability and limited shear will preclude severe storms. Scattered thunderstorms will also be possible this afternoon and tonight across the FL peninsula and along the GA/SC/NC coast. Weak winds aloft will limit the organization of these storms, with no severe activity expected. ..Hart/Weinman.. 09/28/2024 Read more

SPC Sep 28, 2024 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

11 months 1 week ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. A relatively quiet convective day is forecast across the CONUS today. Afternoon thunderstorms may affect the higher terrain of northern NM and southern CO, as well as along a weak occluded front from lower MI into NY. Weak instability and limited shear will preclude severe storms. Scattered thunderstorms will also be possible this afternoon and tonight across the FL peninsula and along the GA/SC/NC coast. Weak winds aloft will limit the organization of these storms, with no severe activity expected. ..Hart/Weinman.. 09/28/2024 Read more

SPC Sep 28, 2024 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

11 months 1 week ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. A relatively quiet convective day is forecast across the CONUS today. Afternoon thunderstorms may affect the higher terrain of northern NM and southern CO, as well as along a weak occluded front from lower MI into NY. Weak instability and limited shear will preclude severe storms. Scattered thunderstorms will also be possible this afternoon and tonight across the FL peninsula and along the GA/SC/NC coast. Weak winds aloft will limit the organization of these storms, with no severe activity expected. ..Hart/Weinman.. 09/28/2024 Read more

SPC Sep 28, 2024 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

11 months 1 week ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. A relatively quiet convective day is forecast across the CONUS today. Afternoon thunderstorms may affect the higher terrain of northern NM and southern CO, as well as along a weak occluded front from lower MI into NY. Weak instability and limited shear will preclude severe storms. Scattered thunderstorms will also be possible this afternoon and tonight across the FL peninsula and along the GA/SC/NC coast. Weak winds aloft will limit the organization of these storms, with no severe activity expected. ..Hart/Weinman.. 09/28/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

11 months 1 week ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1045 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024 Valid 281700Z - 291200Z Well above normal to record setting high temperatures are expected in western/southern Arizona today, and east-southeast sustained winds of 10-15 mph gusting to 25 mph with minimum RH of 5-15% will develop across southeast Arizona and far southwest New Mexico. This will lead to locally elevated conditions across southeast Arizona into far southwest New Mexico late this morning and during the afternoon. Otherwise the forecast remains on track and please see the previous forecast for more details. ..Nauslar.. 09/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1253 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... Increasing mid-level flow is expected over the Great Basin Saturday between a shortwave trough approaching the CA coast and a ridge centered over the Rockies. Cloud-free skies and heating throughout the day will result in a deeply mixed boundary layer and momentum transfer of this stronger flow to the surface. A few hours of sustained winds reaching 15-20 mph within the Elevated area, along with RH dropping as low as the upper single digits, are expected. In addition, an hour or two of critically sustained winds exceeding 20 mph will be possible within the southern half of the Elevated area, where seasonal ERC values are near the 90th percentile. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

11 months 1 week ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1045 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024 Valid 281700Z - 291200Z Well above normal to record setting high temperatures are expected in western/southern Arizona today, and east-southeast sustained winds of 10-15 mph gusting to 25 mph with minimum RH of 5-15% will develop across southeast Arizona and far southwest New Mexico. This will lead to locally elevated conditions across southeast Arizona into far southwest New Mexico late this morning and during the afternoon. Otherwise the forecast remains on track and please see the previous forecast for more details. ..Nauslar.. 09/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1253 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... Increasing mid-level flow is expected over the Great Basin Saturday between a shortwave trough approaching the CA coast and a ridge centered over the Rockies. Cloud-free skies and heating throughout the day will result in a deeply mixed boundary layer and momentum transfer of this stronger flow to the surface. A few hours of sustained winds reaching 15-20 mph within the Elevated area, along with RH dropping as low as the upper single digits, are expected. In addition, an hour or two of critically sustained winds exceeding 20 mph will be possible within the southern half of the Elevated area, where seasonal ERC values are near the 90th percentile. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

11 months 1 week ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1045 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024 Valid 281700Z - 291200Z Well above normal to record setting high temperatures are expected in western/southern Arizona today, and east-southeast sustained winds of 10-15 mph gusting to 25 mph with minimum RH of 5-15% will develop across southeast Arizona and far southwest New Mexico. This will lead to locally elevated conditions across southeast Arizona into far southwest New Mexico late this morning and during the afternoon. Otherwise the forecast remains on track and please see the previous forecast for more details. ..Nauslar.. 09/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1253 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... Increasing mid-level flow is expected over the Great Basin Saturday between a shortwave trough approaching the CA coast and a ridge centered over the Rockies. Cloud-free skies and heating throughout the day will result in a deeply mixed boundary layer and momentum transfer of this stronger flow to the surface. A few hours of sustained winds reaching 15-20 mph within the Elevated area, along with RH dropping as low as the upper single digits, are expected. In addition, an hour or two of critically sustained winds exceeding 20 mph will be possible within the southern half of the Elevated area, where seasonal ERC values are near the 90th percentile. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

11 months 1 week ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1045 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024 Valid 281700Z - 291200Z Well above normal to record setting high temperatures are expected in western/southern Arizona today, and east-southeast sustained winds of 10-15 mph gusting to 25 mph with minimum RH of 5-15% will develop across southeast Arizona and far southwest New Mexico. This will lead to locally elevated conditions across southeast Arizona into far southwest New Mexico late this morning and during the afternoon. Otherwise the forecast remains on track and please see the previous forecast for more details. ..Nauslar.. 09/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1253 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... Increasing mid-level flow is expected over the Great Basin Saturday between a shortwave trough approaching the CA coast and a ridge centered over the Rockies. Cloud-free skies and heating throughout the day will result in a deeply mixed boundary layer and momentum transfer of this stronger flow to the surface. A few hours of sustained winds reaching 15-20 mph within the Elevated area, along with RH dropping as low as the upper single digits, are expected. In addition, an hour or two of critically sustained winds exceeding 20 mph will be possible within the southern half of the Elevated area, where seasonal ERC values are near the 90th percentile. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

11 months 1 week ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1045 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024 Valid 281700Z - 291200Z Well above normal to record setting high temperatures are expected in western/southern Arizona today, and east-southeast sustained winds of 10-15 mph gusting to 25 mph with minimum RH of 5-15% will develop across southeast Arizona and far southwest New Mexico. This will lead to locally elevated conditions across southeast Arizona into far southwest New Mexico late this morning and during the afternoon. Otherwise the forecast remains on track and please see the previous forecast for more details. ..Nauslar.. 09/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1253 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... Increasing mid-level flow is expected over the Great Basin Saturday between a shortwave trough approaching the CA coast and a ridge centered over the Rockies. Cloud-free skies and heating throughout the day will result in a deeply mixed boundary layer and momentum transfer of this stronger flow to the surface. A few hours of sustained winds reaching 15-20 mph within the Elevated area, along with RH dropping as low as the upper single digits, are expected. In addition, an hour or two of critically sustained winds exceeding 20 mph will be possible within the southern half of the Elevated area, where seasonal ERC values are near the 90th percentile. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

11 months 1 week ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1045 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024 Valid 281700Z - 291200Z Well above normal to record setting high temperatures are expected in western/southern Arizona today, and east-southeast sustained winds of 10-15 mph gusting to 25 mph with minimum RH of 5-15% will develop across southeast Arizona and far southwest New Mexico. This will lead to locally elevated conditions across southeast Arizona into far southwest New Mexico late this morning and during the afternoon. Otherwise the forecast remains on track and please see the previous forecast for more details. ..Nauslar.. 09/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1253 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... Increasing mid-level flow is expected over the Great Basin Saturday between a shortwave trough approaching the CA coast and a ridge centered over the Rockies. Cloud-free skies and heating throughout the day will result in a deeply mixed boundary layer and momentum transfer of this stronger flow to the surface. A few hours of sustained winds reaching 15-20 mph within the Elevated area, along with RH dropping as low as the upper single digits, are expected. In addition, an hour or two of critically sustained winds exceeding 20 mph will be possible within the southern half of the Elevated area, where seasonal ERC values are near the 90th percentile. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Sep 28, 2024 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

11 months 1 week ago
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024 Valid 281300Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...Synopsis/Discussion... The mid/upper-level pattern features mean ridging over the West and troughing in the East. The pattern is anchored by a large, nearly stacked cyclone -- resulting from the combination of an antecedent midlatitude low with the post-tropical remnants of Helene. The cyclone should remain centered over the lower Ohio Valley region, drifting/wobbling erratically eastward over northern KY through the period, while continuing to fill. The strongest associated mid/ upper-level winds should remain mostly behind a low-level frontal zone extending from the northern Gulf across northern FL to the coastal Carolinas. South of the boundary across parts of peninsular FL, sufficient low-level moisture remains -- amid weak to negligible MLCINH and a deep troposphere with modest but sufficient lapse rates for convection. This will support scattered thunderstorms today over FL, with isolated thunderstorm potential over coastal areas of GA/Carolinas near the boundary. Dry midlevel air and lack of greater flow/shear should keep severe potential too isolated and disorganized for an outlook. Elsewhere, just east of the mean ridge and amid northerly flow very peripheral to the cyclone, a patch of marginally favorable low/ middle-level moisture should combine with diurnal heating of higher terrain over parts of northern NM and southern CO. Scattered showers are expected this afternoon, with isolated to widely scattered convection extending above a mid/upper-level stable layer and into icing regions suitable for lightning generation. Isolated thunderstorms also are possible amid weak but sufficient low-level moisture and instability around parts of the eastern Great Lakes. ..Edwards/Broyles.. 09/28/2024 Read more
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