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11 months 1 week ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0125 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024
Valid 301200Z - 011200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday.
...Discussion...
A weakening, positive-tilt mid/upper trough will drift east over the
central/southern Appalachians. Similar to prior days, a confined
belt of stronger mid-level southwesterlies will remain present from
eastern Georgia into the eastern Carolinas. The surface pattern in
the East will remain quite diffuse. Isolated thunderstorms are
possible, mainly during Monday afternoon, centered on parts of
central/eastern NC/VA. Weak mid/upper-level lapse rates and nebulous
forcing for ascent will remain limiting factors to storm intensity.
Daytime heating of a moist low-level airmass and lift from sea
breeze boundaries will promote isolated to scattered thunderstorms
in a weakly sheared environment across the Florida Peninsula.
In the West, potential for very isolated afternoon thunderstorms
should shift southeast from the eastern Great Basin on Sunday to the
southern Rockies and Mogollon Rim on Monday. Scant buoyancy and
nebulous large-scale ascent suggest thunderstorm probabilities are
only around 10 percent.
..Grams.. 09/28/2024
Read more
11 months 1 week ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1143 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely on Sunday.
...Eastern Great Basin...
Very isolated thunderstorm development is possible on Sunday
afternoon amid scattered high-based, low-topped convection. A
low-amplitude mid-level low currently off the southern CA coast
should progress into southern CA before stalling Sunday night. Weak
forcing for ascent combined with recycled 700-mb moisture within the
Four Corners States may be adequate for a 10 percent chance of
thunderstorms. The more moist spectrum of guidance suggests buoyancy
will remain scant. Even with the low thunder probability, very large
surface temperature-dew point spreads will support dry microburst
potential and locally strong gusts.
...Upper OH Valley to the Lower Mid-Atlantic...
Ahead of the positive-tilt mid/upper trough drifting east across
KY/TN, isolated lower-topped thunderstorms will be possible, mainly
during Sunday afternoon. Mid-level temperatures will be relatively
warm east-southeast of the trough and cooler to the northeast.
Boundary-layer warming will be more limited with northern extent
amid abundant cloud coverage and early-day showers. As such,
instability will be weak regionwide. A confined belt of stronger
mid-level southwesterlies should be over GA into the Carolinas.
Within this sub-region, the warm temperatures and poor lapse rates
aloft will probably hold thunder probs around 10 percent or less,
yielding negligible severe concern.
..Grams.. 09/28/2024
Read more
11 months 1 week ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1143 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely on Sunday.
...Eastern Great Basin...
Very isolated thunderstorm development is possible on Sunday
afternoon amid scattered high-based, low-topped convection. A
low-amplitude mid-level low currently off the southern CA coast
should progress into southern CA before stalling Sunday night. Weak
forcing for ascent combined with recycled 700-mb moisture within the
Four Corners States may be adequate for a 10 percent chance of
thunderstorms. The more moist spectrum of guidance suggests buoyancy
will remain scant. Even with the low thunder probability, very large
surface temperature-dew point spreads will support dry microburst
potential and locally strong gusts.
...Upper OH Valley to the Lower Mid-Atlantic...
Ahead of the positive-tilt mid/upper trough drifting east across
KY/TN, isolated lower-topped thunderstorms will be possible, mainly
during Sunday afternoon. Mid-level temperatures will be relatively
warm east-southeast of the trough and cooler to the northeast.
Boundary-layer warming will be more limited with northern extent
amid abundant cloud coverage and early-day showers. As such,
instability will be weak regionwide. A confined belt of stronger
mid-level southwesterlies should be over GA into the Carolinas.
Within this sub-region, the warm temperatures and poor lapse rates
aloft will probably hold thunder probs around 10 percent or less,
yielding negligible severe concern.
..Grams.. 09/28/2024
Read more
11 months 1 week ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1143 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely on Sunday.
...Eastern Great Basin...
Very isolated thunderstorm development is possible on Sunday
afternoon amid scattered high-based, low-topped convection. A
low-amplitude mid-level low currently off the southern CA coast
should progress into southern CA before stalling Sunday night. Weak
forcing for ascent combined with recycled 700-mb moisture within the
Four Corners States may be adequate for a 10 percent chance of
thunderstorms. The more moist spectrum of guidance suggests buoyancy
will remain scant. Even with the low thunder probability, very large
surface temperature-dew point spreads will support dry microburst
potential and locally strong gusts.
...Upper OH Valley to the Lower Mid-Atlantic...
Ahead of the positive-tilt mid/upper trough drifting east across
KY/TN, isolated lower-topped thunderstorms will be possible, mainly
during Sunday afternoon. Mid-level temperatures will be relatively
warm east-southeast of the trough and cooler to the northeast.
Boundary-layer warming will be more limited with northern extent
amid abundant cloud coverage and early-day showers. As such,
instability will be weak regionwide. A confined belt of stronger
mid-level southwesterlies should be over GA into the Carolinas.
Within this sub-region, the warm temperatures and poor lapse rates
aloft will probably hold thunder probs around 10 percent or less,
yielding negligible severe concern.
..Grams.. 09/28/2024
Read more
11 months 1 week ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1143 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely on Sunday.
...Eastern Great Basin...
Very isolated thunderstorm development is possible on Sunday
afternoon amid scattered high-based, low-topped convection. A
low-amplitude mid-level low currently off the southern CA coast
should progress into southern CA before stalling Sunday night. Weak
forcing for ascent combined with recycled 700-mb moisture within the
Four Corners States may be adequate for a 10 percent chance of
thunderstorms. The more moist spectrum of guidance suggests buoyancy
will remain scant. Even with the low thunder probability, very large
surface temperature-dew point spreads will support dry microburst
potential and locally strong gusts.
...Upper OH Valley to the Lower Mid-Atlantic...
Ahead of the positive-tilt mid/upper trough drifting east across
KY/TN, isolated lower-topped thunderstorms will be possible, mainly
during Sunday afternoon. Mid-level temperatures will be relatively
warm east-southeast of the trough and cooler to the northeast.
Boundary-layer warming will be more limited with northern extent
amid abundant cloud coverage and early-day showers. As such,
instability will be weak regionwide. A confined belt of stronger
mid-level southwesterlies should be over GA into the Carolinas.
Within this sub-region, the warm temperatures and poor lapse rates
aloft will probably hold thunder probs around 10 percent or less,
yielding negligible severe concern.
..Grams.. 09/28/2024
Read more
11 months 1 week ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1143 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely on Sunday.
...Eastern Great Basin...
Very isolated thunderstorm development is possible on Sunday
afternoon amid scattered high-based, low-topped convection. A
low-amplitude mid-level low currently off the southern CA coast
should progress into southern CA before stalling Sunday night. Weak
forcing for ascent combined with recycled 700-mb moisture within the
Four Corners States may be adequate for a 10 percent chance of
thunderstorms. The more moist spectrum of guidance suggests buoyancy
will remain scant. Even with the low thunder probability, very large
surface temperature-dew point spreads will support dry microburst
potential and locally strong gusts.
...Upper OH Valley to the Lower Mid-Atlantic...
Ahead of the positive-tilt mid/upper trough drifting east across
KY/TN, isolated lower-topped thunderstorms will be possible, mainly
during Sunday afternoon. Mid-level temperatures will be relatively
warm east-southeast of the trough and cooler to the northeast.
Boundary-layer warming will be more limited with northern extent
amid abundant cloud coverage and early-day showers. As such,
instability will be weak regionwide. A confined belt of stronger
mid-level southwesterlies should be over GA into the Carolinas.
Within this sub-region, the warm temperatures and poor lapse rates
aloft will probably hold thunder probs around 10 percent or less,
yielding negligible severe concern.
..Grams.. 09/28/2024
Read more
11 months 1 week ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1143 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely on Sunday.
...Eastern Great Basin...
Very isolated thunderstorm development is possible on Sunday
afternoon amid scattered high-based, low-topped convection. A
low-amplitude mid-level low currently off the southern CA coast
should progress into southern CA before stalling Sunday night. Weak
forcing for ascent combined with recycled 700-mb moisture within the
Four Corners States may be adequate for a 10 percent chance of
thunderstorms. The more moist spectrum of guidance suggests buoyancy
will remain scant. Even with the low thunder probability, very large
surface temperature-dew point spreads will support dry microburst
potential and locally strong gusts.
...Upper OH Valley to the Lower Mid-Atlantic...
Ahead of the positive-tilt mid/upper trough drifting east across
KY/TN, isolated lower-topped thunderstorms will be possible, mainly
during Sunday afternoon. Mid-level temperatures will be relatively
warm east-southeast of the trough and cooler to the northeast.
Boundary-layer warming will be more limited with northern extent
amid abundant cloud coverage and early-day showers. As such,
instability will be weak regionwide. A confined belt of stronger
mid-level southwesterlies should be over GA into the Carolinas.
Within this sub-region, the warm temperatures and poor lapse rates
aloft will probably hold thunder probs around 10 percent or less,
yielding negligible severe concern.
..Grams.. 09/28/2024
Read more
11 months 1 week ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1058 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024
Valid 281630Z - 291200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today.
A relatively quiet convective day is forecast across the CONUS
today. Afternoon thunderstorms may affect the higher terrain of
northern NM and southern CO, as well as along a weak occluded front
from lower MI into NY. Weak instability and limited shear will
preclude severe storms.
Scattered thunderstorms will also be possible this afternoon and
tonight across the FL peninsula and along the GA/SC/NC coast. Weak
winds aloft will limit the organization of these storms, with no
severe activity expected.
..Hart/Weinman.. 09/28/2024
Read more
11 months 1 week ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1058 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024
Valid 281630Z - 291200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today.
A relatively quiet convective day is forecast across the CONUS
today. Afternoon thunderstorms may affect the higher terrain of
northern NM and southern CO, as well as along a weak occluded front
from lower MI into NY. Weak instability and limited shear will
preclude severe storms.
Scattered thunderstorms will also be possible this afternoon and
tonight across the FL peninsula and along the GA/SC/NC coast. Weak
winds aloft will limit the organization of these storms, with no
severe activity expected.
..Hart/Weinman.. 09/28/2024
Read more
11 months 1 week ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1058 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024
Valid 281630Z - 291200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today.
A relatively quiet convective day is forecast across the CONUS
today. Afternoon thunderstorms may affect the higher terrain of
northern NM and southern CO, as well as along a weak occluded front
from lower MI into NY. Weak instability and limited shear will
preclude severe storms.
Scattered thunderstorms will also be possible this afternoon and
tonight across the FL peninsula and along the GA/SC/NC coast. Weak
winds aloft will limit the organization of these storms, with no
severe activity expected.
..Hart/Weinman.. 09/28/2024
Read more
11 months 1 week ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1058 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024
Valid 281630Z - 291200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today.
A relatively quiet convective day is forecast across the CONUS
today. Afternoon thunderstorms may affect the higher terrain of
northern NM and southern CO, as well as along a weak occluded front
from lower MI into NY. Weak instability and limited shear will
preclude severe storms.
Scattered thunderstorms will also be possible this afternoon and
tonight across the FL peninsula and along the GA/SC/NC coast. Weak
winds aloft will limit the organization of these storms, with no
severe activity expected.
..Hart/Weinman.. 09/28/2024
Read more
11 months 1 week ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1058 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024
Valid 281630Z - 291200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today.
A relatively quiet convective day is forecast across the CONUS
today. Afternoon thunderstorms may affect the higher terrain of
northern NM and southern CO, as well as along a weak occluded front
from lower MI into NY. Weak instability and limited shear will
preclude severe storms.
Scattered thunderstorms will also be possible this afternoon and
tonight across the FL peninsula and along the GA/SC/NC coast. Weak
winds aloft will limit the organization of these storms, with no
severe activity expected.
..Hart/Weinman.. 09/28/2024
Read more
11 months 1 week ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1058 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024
Valid 281630Z - 291200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today.
A relatively quiet convective day is forecast across the CONUS
today. Afternoon thunderstorms may affect the higher terrain of
northern NM and southern CO, as well as along a weak occluded front
from lower MI into NY. Weak instability and limited shear will
preclude severe storms.
Scattered thunderstorms will also be possible this afternoon and
tonight across the FL peninsula and along the GA/SC/NC coast. Weak
winds aloft will limit the organization of these storms, with no
severe activity expected.
..Hart/Weinman.. 09/28/2024
Read more
11 months 1 week ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1045 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024
Valid 281700Z - 291200Z
Well above normal to record setting high temperatures are expected
in western/southern Arizona today, and east-southeast sustained
winds of 10-15 mph gusting to 25 mph with minimum RH of 5-15% will
develop across southeast Arizona and far southwest New Mexico. This
will lead to locally elevated conditions across southeast Arizona
into far southwest New Mexico late this morning and during the
afternoon. Otherwise the forecast remains on track and please see
the previous forecast for more details.
..Nauslar.. 09/28/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1253 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024/
...Synopsis...
Increasing mid-level flow is expected over the Great Basin Saturday
between a shortwave trough approaching the CA coast and a ridge
centered over the Rockies. Cloud-free skies and heating throughout
the day will result in a deeply mixed boundary layer and momentum
transfer of this stronger flow to the surface. A few hours of
sustained winds reaching 15-20 mph within the Elevated area, along
with RH dropping as low as the upper single digits, are expected. In
addition, an hour or two of critically sustained winds exceeding 20
mph will be possible within the southern half of the Elevated area,
where seasonal ERC values are near the 90th percentile.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
11 months 1 week ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1045 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024
Valid 281700Z - 291200Z
Well above normal to record setting high temperatures are expected
in western/southern Arizona today, and east-southeast sustained
winds of 10-15 mph gusting to 25 mph with minimum RH of 5-15% will
develop across southeast Arizona and far southwest New Mexico. This
will lead to locally elevated conditions across southeast Arizona
into far southwest New Mexico late this morning and during the
afternoon. Otherwise the forecast remains on track and please see
the previous forecast for more details.
..Nauslar.. 09/28/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1253 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024/
...Synopsis...
Increasing mid-level flow is expected over the Great Basin Saturday
between a shortwave trough approaching the CA coast and a ridge
centered over the Rockies. Cloud-free skies and heating throughout
the day will result in a deeply mixed boundary layer and momentum
transfer of this stronger flow to the surface. A few hours of
sustained winds reaching 15-20 mph within the Elevated area, along
with RH dropping as low as the upper single digits, are expected. In
addition, an hour or two of critically sustained winds exceeding 20
mph will be possible within the southern half of the Elevated area,
where seasonal ERC values are near the 90th percentile.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
11 months 1 week ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1045 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024
Valid 281700Z - 291200Z
Well above normal to record setting high temperatures are expected
in western/southern Arizona today, and east-southeast sustained
winds of 10-15 mph gusting to 25 mph with minimum RH of 5-15% will
develop across southeast Arizona and far southwest New Mexico. This
will lead to locally elevated conditions across southeast Arizona
into far southwest New Mexico late this morning and during the
afternoon. Otherwise the forecast remains on track and please see
the previous forecast for more details.
..Nauslar.. 09/28/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1253 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024/
...Synopsis...
Increasing mid-level flow is expected over the Great Basin Saturday
between a shortwave trough approaching the CA coast and a ridge
centered over the Rockies. Cloud-free skies and heating throughout
the day will result in a deeply mixed boundary layer and momentum
transfer of this stronger flow to the surface. A few hours of
sustained winds reaching 15-20 mph within the Elevated area, along
with RH dropping as low as the upper single digits, are expected. In
addition, an hour or two of critically sustained winds exceeding 20
mph will be possible within the southern half of the Elevated area,
where seasonal ERC values are near the 90th percentile.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
11 months 1 week ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1045 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024
Valid 281700Z - 291200Z
Well above normal to record setting high temperatures are expected
in western/southern Arizona today, and east-southeast sustained
winds of 10-15 mph gusting to 25 mph with minimum RH of 5-15% will
develop across southeast Arizona and far southwest New Mexico. This
will lead to locally elevated conditions across southeast Arizona
into far southwest New Mexico late this morning and during the
afternoon. Otherwise the forecast remains on track and please see
the previous forecast for more details.
..Nauslar.. 09/28/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1253 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024/
...Synopsis...
Increasing mid-level flow is expected over the Great Basin Saturday
between a shortwave trough approaching the CA coast and a ridge
centered over the Rockies. Cloud-free skies and heating throughout
the day will result in a deeply mixed boundary layer and momentum
transfer of this stronger flow to the surface. A few hours of
sustained winds reaching 15-20 mph within the Elevated area, along
with RH dropping as low as the upper single digits, are expected. In
addition, an hour or two of critically sustained winds exceeding 20
mph will be possible within the southern half of the Elevated area,
where seasonal ERC values are near the 90th percentile.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
11 months 1 week ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1045 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024
Valid 281700Z - 291200Z
Well above normal to record setting high temperatures are expected
in western/southern Arizona today, and east-southeast sustained
winds of 10-15 mph gusting to 25 mph with minimum RH of 5-15% will
develop across southeast Arizona and far southwest New Mexico. This
will lead to locally elevated conditions across southeast Arizona
into far southwest New Mexico late this morning and during the
afternoon. Otherwise the forecast remains on track and please see
the previous forecast for more details.
..Nauslar.. 09/28/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1253 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024/
...Synopsis...
Increasing mid-level flow is expected over the Great Basin Saturday
between a shortwave trough approaching the CA coast and a ridge
centered over the Rockies. Cloud-free skies and heating throughout
the day will result in a deeply mixed boundary layer and momentum
transfer of this stronger flow to the surface. A few hours of
sustained winds reaching 15-20 mph within the Elevated area, along
with RH dropping as low as the upper single digits, are expected. In
addition, an hour or two of critically sustained winds exceeding 20
mph will be possible within the southern half of the Elevated area,
where seasonal ERC values are near the 90th percentile.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
11 months 1 week ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1045 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024
Valid 281700Z - 291200Z
Well above normal to record setting high temperatures are expected
in western/southern Arizona today, and east-southeast sustained
winds of 10-15 mph gusting to 25 mph with minimum RH of 5-15% will
develop across southeast Arizona and far southwest New Mexico. This
will lead to locally elevated conditions across southeast Arizona
into far southwest New Mexico late this morning and during the
afternoon. Otherwise the forecast remains on track and please see
the previous forecast for more details.
..Nauslar.. 09/28/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1253 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024/
...Synopsis...
Increasing mid-level flow is expected over the Great Basin Saturday
between a shortwave trough approaching the CA coast and a ridge
centered over the Rockies. Cloud-free skies and heating throughout
the day will result in a deeply mixed boundary layer and momentum
transfer of this stronger flow to the surface. A few hours of
sustained winds reaching 15-20 mph within the Elevated area, along
with RH dropping as low as the upper single digits, are expected. In
addition, an hour or two of critically sustained winds exceeding 20
mph will be possible within the southern half of the Elevated area,
where seasonal ERC values are near the 90th percentile.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
11 months 1 week ago
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0738 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024
Valid 281300Z - 291200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today.
...Synopsis/Discussion...
The mid/upper-level pattern features mean ridging over the West and
troughing in the East. The pattern is anchored by a large, nearly
stacked cyclone -- resulting from the combination of an antecedent
midlatitude low with the post-tropical remnants of Helene. The
cyclone should remain centered over the lower Ohio Valley region,
drifting/wobbling erratically eastward over northern KY through the
period, while continuing to fill. The strongest associated mid/
upper-level winds should remain mostly behind a low-level frontal
zone extending from the northern Gulf across northern FL to the
coastal Carolinas. South of the boundary across parts of peninsular
FL, sufficient low-level moisture remains -- amid weak to negligible
MLCINH and a deep troposphere with modest but sufficient lapse rates
for convection. This will support scattered thunderstorms today
over FL, with isolated thunderstorm potential over coastal areas of
GA/Carolinas near the boundary. Dry midlevel air and lack of
greater flow/shear should keep severe potential too isolated and
disorganized for an outlook.
Elsewhere, just east of the mean ridge and amid northerly flow very
peripheral to the cyclone, a patch of marginally favorable low/
middle-level moisture should combine with diurnal heating of higher
terrain over parts of northern NM and southern CO. Scattered
showers are expected this afternoon, with isolated to widely
scattered convection extending above a mid/upper-level stable layer
and into icing regions suitable for lightning generation. Isolated
thunderstorms also are possible amid weak but sufficient low-level
moisture and instability around parts of the eastern Great Lakes.
..Edwards/Broyles.. 09/28/2024
Read more
Checked
5 years 11 months ago
Storm Prediction Center
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