Severe Storms

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Minimal thunderstorm chances exist through the remainder of the period. ...Discussion... Very little lightning is noted across the CONUS as of 01Z. A few convective showers persist over interior parts of the FL Peninsula, where the air mass remains very moist with upper 70s F dewpoints. However, diurnal cooling and lack of appreciable lift should result in a further reduction in coverage this evening. Farther west under the upper ridge, isolated activity will weaken as well over the higher terrain of northern NM, with further thunderstorm chances below the 10% threshold. Overnight, additional thunderstorms will be possible over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and perhaps toward the Tampa FL area, within the deeper theta-e plume. Lack of shear and poor lapse rates aloft suggest weak activity. ..Jewell.. 09/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Minimal thunderstorm chances exist through the remainder of the period. ...Discussion... Very little lightning is noted across the CONUS as of 01Z. A few convective showers persist over interior parts of the FL Peninsula, where the air mass remains very moist with upper 70s F dewpoints. However, diurnal cooling and lack of appreciable lift should result in a further reduction in coverage this evening. Farther west under the upper ridge, isolated activity will weaken as well over the higher terrain of northern NM, with further thunderstorm chances below the 10% threshold. Overnight, additional thunderstorms will be possible over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and perhaps toward the Tampa FL area, within the deeper theta-e plume. Lack of shear and poor lapse rates aloft suggest weak activity. ..Jewell.. 09/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Minimal thunderstorm chances exist through the remainder of the period. ...Discussion... Very little lightning is noted across the CONUS as of 01Z. A few convective showers persist over interior parts of the FL Peninsula, where the air mass remains very moist with upper 70s F dewpoints. However, diurnal cooling and lack of appreciable lift should result in a further reduction in coverage this evening. Farther west under the upper ridge, isolated activity will weaken as well over the higher terrain of northern NM, with further thunderstorm chances below the 10% threshold. Overnight, additional thunderstorms will be possible over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and perhaps toward the Tampa FL area, within the deeper theta-e plume. Lack of shear and poor lapse rates aloft suggest weak activity. ..Jewell.. 09/29/2024 Read more

No watches are valid as of Sat Sep 28 23:28:02 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Sep 28 23:28:02 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0448 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 061200Z An upper-level trough will move over the northern Plains and western Great Lakes early next week followed by strong zonal flow aloft along the US-Canadian border. A cold front will sweep southeast through the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest D3/Monday and to the Gulf and East Coasts D5/Wednesday. Another cold front will slide south through the northern Intermountain West and northern Plains D4/Tuesday - D5/Wednesday. A thermal trough will extend through northwest California to off the southwest Oregon coast into mid-next week, with well above normal temperatures extending from the Desert Southwest through California and into portions of the central Intermountain West. ...D3/Monday: central/northern Plains... A dry cold front will push southeast across the northern and central Plains D3/Monday, with gusty winds overlapping low RH behind it. Widespread elevated conditions are expected, and an area of critical conditions is currently most likely in western/central Nebraska. Forecast uncertainty remains regarding the timing of the front and eastward extent of the dry air that will be monitored in subsequent outlooks. ...D4/Tuesday - D6/Thursday: northern Intermountain West and northern/central High Plains... Another dry cold front will push south through the northern Intermountain West and northern Plains with strong westerly flow aloft. Dry/breezy west-northwest winds are likely across the northern Intermountain West onto portions of the northern/central Plains beginning possibly on D4/Tuesday, with higher chances of dry/breezy conditions D5/Wednesday. The area of concern will shift south on D6/Thursday from the Sierra Front across portions of the Great Basin into Wyoming. While elevated conditions are likely across portions of these areas during this period, there is too much forecast uncertainty to delineate areas at this time. ...D3/Monday - D5/Wednesday: northwest California and southwest Oregon... Offshore winds are likely to develop at times, most likely overnight on mid/upper slopes, in portions of southwest Oregon and northwest California. The overlap of critical winds/RH will likely be relatively sporadic and isolated but will be monitored going forward. ...D5/Wednesday - D6/Thursday: southern/central Plains... Dry and breezy southerly winds are forecast to develop on portions of the southern/central Plains mid to late next week. Elevated conditions are possible if not likely, but there remains too much forecast uncertainty to issue probabilities of critical conditions at this time. ..Nauslar.. 09/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0448 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 061200Z An upper-level trough will move over the northern Plains and western Great Lakes early next week followed by strong zonal flow aloft along the US-Canadian border. A cold front will sweep southeast through the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest D3/Monday and to the Gulf and East Coasts D5/Wednesday. Another cold front will slide south through the northern Intermountain West and northern Plains D4/Tuesday - D5/Wednesday. A thermal trough will extend through northwest California to off the southwest Oregon coast into mid-next week, with well above normal temperatures extending from the Desert Southwest through California and into portions of the central Intermountain West. ...D3/Monday: central/northern Plains... A dry cold front will push southeast across the northern and central Plains D3/Monday, with gusty winds overlapping low RH behind it. Widespread elevated conditions are expected, and an area of critical conditions is currently most likely in western/central Nebraska. Forecast uncertainty remains regarding the timing of the front and eastward extent of the dry air that will be monitored in subsequent outlooks. ...D4/Tuesday - D6/Thursday: northern Intermountain West and northern/central High Plains... Another dry cold front will push south through the northern Intermountain West and northern Plains with strong westerly flow aloft. Dry/breezy west-northwest winds are likely across the northern Intermountain West onto portions of the northern/central Plains beginning possibly on D4/Tuesday, with higher chances of dry/breezy conditions D5/Wednesday. The area of concern will shift south on D6/Thursday from the Sierra Front across portions of the Great Basin into Wyoming. While elevated conditions are likely across portions of these areas during this period, there is too much forecast uncertainty to delineate areas at this time. ...D3/Monday - D5/Wednesday: northwest California and southwest Oregon... Offshore winds are likely to develop at times, most likely overnight on mid/upper slopes, in portions of southwest Oregon and northwest California. The overlap of critical winds/RH will likely be relatively sporadic and isolated but will be monitored going forward. ...D5/Wednesday - D6/Thursday: southern/central Plains... Dry and breezy southerly winds are forecast to develop on portions of the southern/central Plains mid to late next week. Elevated conditions are possible if not likely, but there remains too much forecast uncertainty to issue probabilities of critical conditions at this time. ..Nauslar.. 09/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0448 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 061200Z An upper-level trough will move over the northern Plains and western Great Lakes early next week followed by strong zonal flow aloft along the US-Canadian border. A cold front will sweep southeast through the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest D3/Monday and to the Gulf and East Coasts D5/Wednesday. Another cold front will slide south through the northern Intermountain West and northern Plains D4/Tuesday - D5/Wednesday. A thermal trough will extend through northwest California to off the southwest Oregon coast into mid-next week, with well above normal temperatures extending from the Desert Southwest through California and into portions of the central Intermountain West. ...D3/Monday: central/northern Plains... A dry cold front will push southeast across the northern and central Plains D3/Monday, with gusty winds overlapping low RH behind it. Widespread elevated conditions are expected, and an area of critical conditions is currently most likely in western/central Nebraska. Forecast uncertainty remains regarding the timing of the front and eastward extent of the dry air that will be monitored in subsequent outlooks. ...D4/Tuesday - D6/Thursday: northern Intermountain West and northern/central High Plains... Another dry cold front will push south through the northern Intermountain West and northern Plains with strong westerly flow aloft. Dry/breezy west-northwest winds are likely across the northern Intermountain West onto portions of the northern/central Plains beginning possibly on D4/Tuesday, with higher chances of dry/breezy conditions D5/Wednesday. The area of concern will shift south on D6/Thursday from the Sierra Front across portions of the Great Basin into Wyoming. While elevated conditions are likely across portions of these areas during this period, there is too much forecast uncertainty to delineate areas at this time. ...D3/Monday - D5/Wednesday: northwest California and southwest Oregon... Offshore winds are likely to develop at times, most likely overnight on mid/upper slopes, in portions of southwest Oregon and northwest California. The overlap of critical winds/RH will likely be relatively sporadic and isolated but will be monitored going forward. ...D5/Wednesday - D6/Thursday: southern/central Plains... Dry and breezy southerly winds are forecast to develop on portions of the southern/central Plains mid to late next week. Elevated conditions are possible if not likely, but there remains too much forecast uncertainty to issue probabilities of critical conditions at this time. ..Nauslar.. 09/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0448 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 061200Z An upper-level trough will move over the northern Plains and western Great Lakes early next week followed by strong zonal flow aloft along the US-Canadian border. A cold front will sweep southeast through the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest D3/Monday and to the Gulf and East Coasts D5/Wednesday. Another cold front will slide south through the northern Intermountain West and northern Plains D4/Tuesday - D5/Wednesday. A thermal trough will extend through northwest California to off the southwest Oregon coast into mid-next week, with well above normal temperatures extending from the Desert Southwest through California and into portions of the central Intermountain West. ...D3/Monday: central/northern Plains... A dry cold front will push southeast across the northern and central Plains D3/Monday, with gusty winds overlapping low RH behind it. Widespread elevated conditions are expected, and an area of critical conditions is currently most likely in western/central Nebraska. Forecast uncertainty remains regarding the timing of the front and eastward extent of the dry air that will be monitored in subsequent outlooks. ...D4/Tuesday - D6/Thursday: northern Intermountain West and northern/central High Plains... Another dry cold front will push south through the northern Intermountain West and northern Plains with strong westerly flow aloft. Dry/breezy west-northwest winds are likely across the northern Intermountain West onto portions of the northern/central Plains beginning possibly on D4/Tuesday, with higher chances of dry/breezy conditions D5/Wednesday. The area of concern will shift south on D6/Thursday from the Sierra Front across portions of the Great Basin into Wyoming. While elevated conditions are likely across portions of these areas during this period, there is too much forecast uncertainty to delineate areas at this time. ...D3/Monday - D5/Wednesday: northwest California and southwest Oregon... Offshore winds are likely to develop at times, most likely overnight on mid/upper slopes, in portions of southwest Oregon and northwest California. The overlap of critical winds/RH will likely be relatively sporadic and isolated but will be monitored going forward. ...D5/Wednesday - D6/Thursday: southern/central Plains... Dry and breezy southerly winds are forecast to develop on portions of the southern/central Plains mid to late next week. Elevated conditions are possible if not likely, but there remains too much forecast uncertainty to issue probabilities of critical conditions at this time. ..Nauslar.. 09/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA... The Elevated areas in the central/northern Plains and eastern Washington were expanded to reflect the latest high-resolution forecast guidance. Locally elevated conditions may develop farther east on the northern Plains into northwest Minnesota and in portions of eastern Oregon into southwest Idaho as well. Breezy offshore winds are likely to develop overnight in far southwest Oregon and northwest California, most likely affecting mid/upper slopes, and may result in locally elevated conditions. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track, and please see the previous discussion for more details. ..Nauslar.. 09/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... A deepening mid to upper-level trough and accompanying jet streak are expected to traverse the western Canadian provinces Sunday. At the surface, a low will deepen across the northern Rockies and tightening pressure gradients will develop from the northern Plains, into the Intermountain West, and Cascades. The result will be increasing surface winds within these areas. A dry return-flow regime over the northern Plains will unfold, where high confidence in the latest guidance suggests speeds around 15-25 mph by the afternoon. Persistent low moisture content of fine to medium fuels across this region, ERCs exceeding 95th percentiles, and RH in the low teens warrants a narrow Critical area from the NE Panhandle through west-central SD. Further west of this region, southwest to westerly winds of slightly lower speeds will impact central WY, southern MT, and portions of ID. Two other Elevated areas have also been included for the Great Basin and Columbia River Basin of WA. Fuels across the former region continue to become more receptive to fire spread due to persistent warm and dry conditions, but only transient elevated to critical south-southwest winds are anticipated. Dry, westerly downslope surface flow near 15 mph coinciding with RH in the upper teens preceding the trough will impact eastern WA. If later guidance suggest a deeper and/or slower trough progression, this Elevated area may need to be expanded. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA... The Elevated areas in the central/northern Plains and eastern Washington were expanded to reflect the latest high-resolution forecast guidance. Locally elevated conditions may develop farther east on the northern Plains into northwest Minnesota and in portions of eastern Oregon into southwest Idaho as well. Breezy offshore winds are likely to develop overnight in far southwest Oregon and northwest California, most likely affecting mid/upper slopes, and may result in locally elevated conditions. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track, and please see the previous discussion for more details. ..Nauslar.. 09/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... A deepening mid to upper-level trough and accompanying jet streak are expected to traverse the western Canadian provinces Sunday. At the surface, a low will deepen across the northern Rockies and tightening pressure gradients will develop from the northern Plains, into the Intermountain West, and Cascades. The result will be increasing surface winds within these areas. A dry return-flow regime over the northern Plains will unfold, where high confidence in the latest guidance suggests speeds around 15-25 mph by the afternoon. Persistent low moisture content of fine to medium fuels across this region, ERCs exceeding 95th percentiles, and RH in the low teens warrants a narrow Critical area from the NE Panhandle through west-central SD. Further west of this region, southwest to westerly winds of slightly lower speeds will impact central WY, southern MT, and portions of ID. Two other Elevated areas have also been included for the Great Basin and Columbia River Basin of WA. Fuels across the former region continue to become more receptive to fire spread due to persistent warm and dry conditions, but only transient elevated to critical south-southwest winds are anticipated. Dry, westerly downslope surface flow near 15 mph coinciding with RH in the upper teens preceding the trough will impact eastern WA. If later guidance suggest a deeper and/or slower trough progression, this Elevated area may need to be expanded. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA... The Elevated areas in the central/northern Plains and eastern Washington were expanded to reflect the latest high-resolution forecast guidance. Locally elevated conditions may develop farther east on the northern Plains into northwest Minnesota and in portions of eastern Oregon into southwest Idaho as well. Breezy offshore winds are likely to develop overnight in far southwest Oregon and northwest California, most likely affecting mid/upper slopes, and may result in locally elevated conditions. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track, and please see the previous discussion for more details. ..Nauslar.. 09/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... A deepening mid to upper-level trough and accompanying jet streak are expected to traverse the western Canadian provinces Sunday. At the surface, a low will deepen across the northern Rockies and tightening pressure gradients will develop from the northern Plains, into the Intermountain West, and Cascades. The result will be increasing surface winds within these areas. A dry return-flow regime over the northern Plains will unfold, where high confidence in the latest guidance suggests speeds around 15-25 mph by the afternoon. Persistent low moisture content of fine to medium fuels across this region, ERCs exceeding 95th percentiles, and RH in the low teens warrants a narrow Critical area from the NE Panhandle through west-central SD. Further west of this region, southwest to westerly winds of slightly lower speeds will impact central WY, southern MT, and portions of ID. Two other Elevated areas have also been included for the Great Basin and Columbia River Basin of WA. Fuels across the former region continue to become more receptive to fire spread due to persistent warm and dry conditions, but only transient elevated to critical south-southwest winds are anticipated. Dry, westerly downslope surface flow near 15 mph coinciding with RH in the upper teens preceding the trough will impact eastern WA. If later guidance suggest a deeper and/or slower trough progression, this Elevated area may need to be expanded. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA... The Elevated areas in the central/northern Plains and eastern Washington were expanded to reflect the latest high-resolution forecast guidance. Locally elevated conditions may develop farther east on the northern Plains into northwest Minnesota and in portions of eastern Oregon into southwest Idaho as well. Breezy offshore winds are likely to develop overnight in far southwest Oregon and northwest California, most likely affecting mid/upper slopes, and may result in locally elevated conditions. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track, and please see the previous discussion for more details. ..Nauslar.. 09/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... A deepening mid to upper-level trough and accompanying jet streak are expected to traverse the western Canadian provinces Sunday. At the surface, a low will deepen across the northern Rockies and tightening pressure gradients will develop from the northern Plains, into the Intermountain West, and Cascades. The result will be increasing surface winds within these areas. A dry return-flow regime over the northern Plains will unfold, where high confidence in the latest guidance suggests speeds around 15-25 mph by the afternoon. Persistent low moisture content of fine to medium fuels across this region, ERCs exceeding 95th percentiles, and RH in the low teens warrants a narrow Critical area from the NE Panhandle through west-central SD. Further west of this region, southwest to westerly winds of slightly lower speeds will impact central WY, southern MT, and portions of ID. Two other Elevated areas have also been included for the Great Basin and Columbia River Basin of WA. Fuels across the former region continue to become more receptive to fire spread due to persistent warm and dry conditions, but only transient elevated to critical south-southwest winds are anticipated. Dry, westerly downslope surface flow near 15 mph coinciding with RH in the upper teens preceding the trough will impact eastern WA. If later guidance suggest a deeper and/or slower trough progression, this Elevated area may need to be expanded. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA... The Elevated areas in the central/northern Plains and eastern Washington were expanded to reflect the latest high-resolution forecast guidance. Locally elevated conditions may develop farther east on the northern Plains into northwest Minnesota and in portions of eastern Oregon into southwest Idaho as well. Breezy offshore winds are likely to develop overnight in far southwest Oregon and northwest California, most likely affecting mid/upper slopes, and may result in locally elevated conditions. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track, and please see the previous discussion for more details. ..Nauslar.. 09/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... A deepening mid to upper-level trough and accompanying jet streak are expected to traverse the western Canadian provinces Sunday. At the surface, a low will deepen across the northern Rockies and tightening pressure gradients will develop from the northern Plains, into the Intermountain West, and Cascades. The result will be increasing surface winds within these areas. A dry return-flow regime over the northern Plains will unfold, where high confidence in the latest guidance suggests speeds around 15-25 mph by the afternoon. Persistent low moisture content of fine to medium fuels across this region, ERCs exceeding 95th percentiles, and RH in the low teens warrants a narrow Critical area from the NE Panhandle through west-central SD. Further west of this region, southwest to westerly winds of slightly lower speeds will impact central WY, southern MT, and portions of ID. Two other Elevated areas have also been included for the Great Basin and Columbia River Basin of WA. Fuels across the former region continue to become more receptive to fire spread due to persistent warm and dry conditions, but only transient elevated to critical south-southwest winds are anticipated. Dry, westerly downslope surface flow near 15 mph coinciding with RH in the upper teens preceding the trough will impact eastern WA. If later guidance suggest a deeper and/or slower trough progression, this Elevated area may need to be expanded. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...20Z Update... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 09/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1058 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024/ A relatively quiet convective day is forecast across the CONUS today. Afternoon thunderstorms may affect the higher terrain of northern NM and southern CO, as well as along a weak occluded front from lower MI into NY. Weak instability and limited shear will preclude severe storms. Scattered thunderstorms will also be possible this afternoon and tonight across the FL peninsula and along the GA/SC/NC coast. Weak winds aloft will limit the organization of these storms, with no severe activity expected. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...20Z Update... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 09/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1058 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024/ A relatively quiet convective day is forecast across the CONUS today. Afternoon thunderstorms may affect the higher terrain of northern NM and southern CO, as well as along a weak occluded front from lower MI into NY. Weak instability and limited shear will preclude severe storms. Scattered thunderstorms will also be possible this afternoon and tonight across the FL peninsula and along the GA/SC/NC coast. Weak winds aloft will limit the organization of these storms, with no severe activity expected. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...20Z Update... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 09/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1058 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024/ A relatively quiet convective day is forecast across the CONUS today. Afternoon thunderstorms may affect the higher terrain of northern NM and southern CO, as well as along a weak occluded front from lower MI into NY. Weak instability and limited shear will preclude severe storms. Scattered thunderstorms will also be possible this afternoon and tonight across the FL peninsula and along the GA/SC/NC coast. Weak winds aloft will limit the organization of these storms, with no severe activity expected. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...20Z Update... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 09/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1058 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024/ A relatively quiet convective day is forecast across the CONUS today. Afternoon thunderstorms may affect the higher terrain of northern NM and southern CO, as well as along a weak occluded front from lower MI into NY. Weak instability and limited shear will preclude severe storms. Scattered thunderstorms will also be possible this afternoon and tonight across the FL peninsula and along the GA/SC/NC coast. Weak winds aloft will limit the organization of these storms, with no severe activity expected. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...20Z Update... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 09/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1058 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024/ A relatively quiet convective day is forecast across the CONUS today. Afternoon thunderstorms may affect the higher terrain of northern NM and southern CO, as well as along a weak occluded front from lower MI into NY. Weak instability and limited shear will preclude severe storms. Scattered thunderstorms will also be possible this afternoon and tonight across the FL peninsula and along the GA/SC/NC coast. Weak winds aloft will limit the organization of these storms, with no severe activity expected. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Discussion... A weakening, positive-tilt mid/upper trough will drift east over the central/southern Appalachians. Similar to prior days, a confined belt of stronger mid-level southwesterlies will remain present from eastern Georgia into the eastern Carolinas. The surface pattern in the East will remain quite diffuse. Isolated thunderstorms are possible, mainly during Monday afternoon, centered on parts of central/eastern NC/VA. Weak mid/upper-level lapse rates and nebulous forcing for ascent will remain limiting factors to storm intensity. Daytime heating of a moist low-level airmass and lift from sea breeze boundaries will promote isolated to scattered thunderstorms in a weakly sheared environment across the Florida Peninsula. In the West, potential for very isolated afternoon thunderstorms should shift southeast from the eastern Great Basin on Sunday to the southern Rockies and Mogollon Rim on Monday. Scant buoyancy and nebulous large-scale ascent suggest thunderstorm probabilities are only around 10 percent. ..Grams.. 09/28/2024 Read more