Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0115 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS.... ...Synopsis... Very strong winds are in place behind a cold front which is moving across Montana early this morning. Some sustained winds over 30 mph have been reported with gusts over 50 mph. As this front moves southeast, these breezy conditions are expected to continue in the post-frontal airmass. Poor overnight recoveries are occurring across the central Plains this morning with some relative humidity less than 25-30 percent, which is expected to continue through morning. In the immediate wake of the cold front late this morning and during the early afternoon, relative humidities are expected to be low before colder air arrives. Therefore, some critical fire weather concerns are expected across portions of Nebraska and South Dakota this afternoon. Farther west, some dry and breezy conditions are possible in terrain-favored areas of northeast Utah and southwest Wyoming where an Elevated is in place to cover this threat. ..Bentley.. 09/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0115 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS.... ...Synopsis... Very strong winds are in place behind a cold front which is moving across Montana early this morning. Some sustained winds over 30 mph have been reported with gusts over 50 mph. As this front moves southeast, these breezy conditions are expected to continue in the post-frontal airmass. Poor overnight recoveries are occurring across the central Plains this morning with some relative humidity less than 25-30 percent, which is expected to continue through morning. In the immediate wake of the cold front late this morning and during the early afternoon, relative humidities are expected to be low before colder air arrives. Therefore, some critical fire weather concerns are expected across portions of Nebraska and South Dakota this afternoon. Farther west, some dry and breezy conditions are possible in terrain-favored areas of northeast Utah and southwest Wyoming where an Elevated is in place to cover this threat. ..Bentley.. 09/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0115 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS.... ...Synopsis... Very strong winds are in place behind a cold front which is moving across Montana early this morning. Some sustained winds over 30 mph have been reported with gusts over 50 mph. As this front moves southeast, these breezy conditions are expected to continue in the post-frontal airmass. Poor overnight recoveries are occurring across the central Plains this morning with some relative humidity less than 25-30 percent, which is expected to continue through morning. In the immediate wake of the cold front late this morning and during the early afternoon, relative humidities are expected to be low before colder air arrives. Therefore, some critical fire weather concerns are expected across portions of Nebraska and South Dakota this afternoon. Farther west, some dry and breezy conditions are possible in terrain-favored areas of northeast Utah and southwest Wyoming where an Elevated is in place to cover this threat. ..Bentley.. 09/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0115 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS.... ...Synopsis... Very strong winds are in place behind a cold front which is moving across Montana early this morning. Some sustained winds over 30 mph have been reported with gusts over 50 mph. As this front moves southeast, these breezy conditions are expected to continue in the post-frontal airmass. Poor overnight recoveries are occurring across the central Plains this morning with some relative humidity less than 25-30 percent, which is expected to continue through morning. In the immediate wake of the cold front late this morning and during the early afternoon, relative humidities are expected to be low before colder air arrives. Therefore, some critical fire weather concerns are expected across portions of Nebraska and South Dakota this afternoon. Farther west, some dry and breezy conditions are possible in terrain-favored areas of northeast Utah and southwest Wyoming where an Elevated is in place to cover this threat. ..Bentley.. 09/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0115 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS.... ...Synopsis... Very strong winds are in place behind a cold front which is moving across Montana early this morning. Some sustained winds over 30 mph have been reported with gusts over 50 mph. As this front moves southeast, these breezy conditions are expected to continue in the post-frontal airmass. Poor overnight recoveries are occurring across the central Plains this morning with some relative humidity less than 25-30 percent, which is expected to continue through morning. In the immediate wake of the cold front late this morning and during the early afternoon, relative humidities are expected to be low before colder air arrives. Therefore, some critical fire weather concerns are expected across portions of Nebraska and South Dakota this afternoon. Farther west, some dry and breezy conditions are possible in terrain-favored areas of northeast Utah and southwest Wyoming where an Elevated is in place to cover this threat. ..Bentley.. 09/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A weakening shortwave trough will progress east over the Lower Mid-Atlantic States on Tuesday and offshore Tuesday night. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible over eastern North Carolina to far southeast Virginia during the afternoon before the trough departs. A strong upper-level trough will move across parts of the northern Great Lakes. A surface cold front associated with this trough will similarly move eastward, progressing into the lower Ohio Valley and the lower Great Lakes through the afternoon and evening. With surface dewpoints in the low 60s, marginal surface-based buoyancy of 500-750 J/kg MLCAPE could develop ahead of the front. Warm 700 mb temperatures and weak low-level winds suggest severe storms are unlikely. Elsewhere, widely scattered to scattered storms are possible in the Florida Peninsula where sea breeze boundaries are likely to initiate storms in a moist environment. Mid-level moisture near the Mogollon Rim into parts of southern Arizona may promote isolated thunderstorm development during the afternoon. ..Wendt.. 09/30/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A weakening shortwave trough will progress east over the Lower Mid-Atlantic States on Tuesday and offshore Tuesday night. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible over eastern North Carolina to far southeast Virginia during the afternoon before the trough departs. A strong upper-level trough will move across parts of the northern Great Lakes. A surface cold front associated with this trough will similarly move eastward, progressing into the lower Ohio Valley and the lower Great Lakes through the afternoon and evening. With surface dewpoints in the low 60s, marginal surface-based buoyancy of 500-750 J/kg MLCAPE could develop ahead of the front. Warm 700 mb temperatures and weak low-level winds suggest severe storms are unlikely. Elsewhere, widely scattered to scattered storms are possible in the Florida Peninsula where sea breeze boundaries are likely to initiate storms in a moist environment. Mid-level moisture near the Mogollon Rim into parts of southern Arizona may promote isolated thunderstorm development during the afternoon. ..Wendt.. 09/30/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A weakening shortwave trough will progress east over the Lower Mid-Atlantic States on Tuesday and offshore Tuesday night. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible over eastern North Carolina to far southeast Virginia during the afternoon before the trough departs. A strong upper-level trough will move across parts of the northern Great Lakes. A surface cold front associated with this trough will similarly move eastward, progressing into the lower Ohio Valley and the lower Great Lakes through the afternoon and evening. With surface dewpoints in the low 60s, marginal surface-based buoyancy of 500-750 J/kg MLCAPE could develop ahead of the front. Warm 700 mb temperatures and weak low-level winds suggest severe storms are unlikely. Elsewhere, widely scattered to scattered storms are possible in the Florida Peninsula where sea breeze boundaries are likely to initiate storms in a moist environment. Mid-level moisture near the Mogollon Rim into parts of southern Arizona may promote isolated thunderstorm development during the afternoon. ..Wendt.. 09/30/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A weakening shortwave trough will progress east over the Lower Mid-Atlantic States on Tuesday and offshore Tuesday night. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible over eastern North Carolina to far southeast Virginia during the afternoon before the trough departs. A strong upper-level trough will move across parts of the northern Great Lakes. A surface cold front associated with this trough will similarly move eastward, progressing into the lower Ohio Valley and the lower Great Lakes through the afternoon and evening. With surface dewpoints in the low 60s, marginal surface-based buoyancy of 500-750 J/kg MLCAPE could develop ahead of the front. Warm 700 mb temperatures and weak low-level winds suggest severe storms are unlikely. Elsewhere, widely scattered to scattered storms are possible in the Florida Peninsula where sea breeze boundaries are likely to initiate storms in a moist environment. Mid-level moisture near the Mogollon Rim into parts of southern Arizona may promote isolated thunderstorm development during the afternoon. ..Wendt.. 09/30/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A weakening shortwave trough will progress east over the Lower Mid-Atlantic States on Tuesday and offshore Tuesday night. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible over eastern North Carolina to far southeast Virginia during the afternoon before the trough departs. A strong upper-level trough will move across parts of the northern Great Lakes. A surface cold front associated with this trough will similarly move eastward, progressing into the lower Ohio Valley and the lower Great Lakes through the afternoon and evening. With surface dewpoints in the low 60s, marginal surface-based buoyancy of 500-750 J/kg MLCAPE could develop ahead of the front. Warm 700 mb temperatures and weak low-level winds suggest severe storms are unlikely. Elsewhere, widely scattered to scattered storms are possible in the Florida Peninsula where sea breeze boundaries are likely to initiate storms in a moist environment. Mid-level moisture near the Mogollon Rim into parts of southern Arizona may promote isolated thunderstorm development during the afternoon. ..Wendt.. 09/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An intense upper trough will move quickly from MT across the northern Plains and upper MS Valley through 00Z, and to the upper Great Lakes into Tuesday morning. In the low levels, a cold front will push east in concert with the upper trough, extending from Lake MI into western TX by 12Z Tuesday. Due to lack of moisture and instability ahead of the front, thunderstorms are not forecast with this system. To the east, a positive-tilt upper trough will remain over parts of the Appalachians, with 40-45 kt 500 mb southwesterlies from GA into the Carolinas. A weak surface low is forecast over the central Carolinas, and sufficient convergence may exist to support scattered daytime thunderstorms. Deep-layer shear on the order of 40 kt will exist, with elongated hodographs in the mid and high levels. However, poor lapse rates aloft should limit any potential to mainly non-severe outflow/gusts. Elsewhere, mid 70s F dewpoints within a weak flow regime will again favor scattered daytime storms over the FL Peninsula. Midlevel lapse rates will remain poor, limiting storm intensity despite ample moisture. Finally, isolated weak thunderstorms may occur over parts of AZ and NM during the peak heating hours. While under a midlevel ridge, 500 mb temperatures will still be cool at around -10 C, aiding lapse rates. ..Jewell/Bentley.. 09/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An intense upper trough will move quickly from MT across the northern Plains and upper MS Valley through 00Z, and to the upper Great Lakes into Tuesday morning. In the low levels, a cold front will push east in concert with the upper trough, extending from Lake MI into western TX by 12Z Tuesday. Due to lack of moisture and instability ahead of the front, thunderstorms are not forecast with this system. To the east, a positive-tilt upper trough will remain over parts of the Appalachians, with 40-45 kt 500 mb southwesterlies from GA into the Carolinas. A weak surface low is forecast over the central Carolinas, and sufficient convergence may exist to support scattered daytime thunderstorms. Deep-layer shear on the order of 40 kt will exist, with elongated hodographs in the mid and high levels. However, poor lapse rates aloft should limit any potential to mainly non-severe outflow/gusts. Elsewhere, mid 70s F dewpoints within a weak flow regime will again favor scattered daytime storms over the FL Peninsula. Midlevel lapse rates will remain poor, limiting storm intensity despite ample moisture. Finally, isolated weak thunderstorms may occur over parts of AZ and NM during the peak heating hours. While under a midlevel ridge, 500 mb temperatures will still be cool at around -10 C, aiding lapse rates. ..Jewell/Bentley.. 09/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An intense upper trough will move quickly from MT across the northern Plains and upper MS Valley through 00Z, and to the upper Great Lakes into Tuesday morning. In the low levels, a cold front will push east in concert with the upper trough, extending from Lake MI into western TX by 12Z Tuesday. Due to lack of moisture and instability ahead of the front, thunderstorms are not forecast with this system. To the east, a positive-tilt upper trough will remain over parts of the Appalachians, with 40-45 kt 500 mb southwesterlies from GA into the Carolinas. A weak surface low is forecast over the central Carolinas, and sufficient convergence may exist to support scattered daytime thunderstorms. Deep-layer shear on the order of 40 kt will exist, with elongated hodographs in the mid and high levels. However, poor lapse rates aloft should limit any potential to mainly non-severe outflow/gusts. Elsewhere, mid 70s F dewpoints within a weak flow regime will again favor scattered daytime storms over the FL Peninsula. Midlevel lapse rates will remain poor, limiting storm intensity despite ample moisture. Finally, isolated weak thunderstorms may occur over parts of AZ and NM during the peak heating hours. While under a midlevel ridge, 500 mb temperatures will still be cool at around -10 C, aiding lapse rates. ..Jewell/Bentley.. 09/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An intense upper trough will move quickly from MT across the northern Plains and upper MS Valley through 00Z, and to the upper Great Lakes into Tuesday morning. In the low levels, a cold front will push east in concert with the upper trough, extending from Lake MI into western TX by 12Z Tuesday. Due to lack of moisture and instability ahead of the front, thunderstorms are not forecast with this system. To the east, a positive-tilt upper trough will remain over parts of the Appalachians, with 40-45 kt 500 mb southwesterlies from GA into the Carolinas. A weak surface low is forecast over the central Carolinas, and sufficient convergence may exist to support scattered daytime thunderstorms. Deep-layer shear on the order of 40 kt will exist, with elongated hodographs in the mid and high levels. However, poor lapse rates aloft should limit any potential to mainly non-severe outflow/gusts. Elsewhere, mid 70s F dewpoints within a weak flow regime will again favor scattered daytime storms over the FL Peninsula. Midlevel lapse rates will remain poor, limiting storm intensity despite ample moisture. Finally, isolated weak thunderstorms may occur over parts of AZ and NM during the peak heating hours. While under a midlevel ridge, 500 mb temperatures will still be cool at around -10 C, aiding lapse rates. ..Jewell/Bentley.. 09/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An intense upper trough will move quickly from MT across the northern Plains and upper MS Valley through 00Z, and to the upper Great Lakes into Tuesday morning. In the low levels, a cold front will push east in concert with the upper trough, extending from Lake MI into western TX by 12Z Tuesday. Due to lack of moisture and instability ahead of the front, thunderstorms are not forecast with this system. To the east, a positive-tilt upper trough will remain over parts of the Appalachians, with 40-45 kt 500 mb southwesterlies from GA into the Carolinas. A weak surface low is forecast over the central Carolinas, and sufficient convergence may exist to support scattered daytime thunderstorms. Deep-layer shear on the order of 40 kt will exist, with elongated hodographs in the mid and high levels. However, poor lapse rates aloft should limit any potential to mainly non-severe outflow/gusts. Elsewhere, mid 70s F dewpoints within a weak flow regime will again favor scattered daytime storms over the FL Peninsula. Midlevel lapse rates will remain poor, limiting storm intensity despite ample moisture. Finally, isolated weak thunderstorms may occur over parts of AZ and NM during the peak heating hours. While under a midlevel ridge, 500 mb temperatures will still be cool at around -10 C, aiding lapse rates. ..Jewell/Bentley.. 09/30/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0755 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024 Valid 300100Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast for the remainder of the period. ...Discussion... Scattered low-topped convection remains ongoing from WV into VA and central NC, where weak instability exists. This activity will continue to diminish with the loss of heating. To the south, stronger storms exist over the east-central FL Peninsula near Cape Canaveral. However, this activity is mostly producing heavy rain and lightning in a weak-shear environment, and will continue to spread offshore. Additional isolated activity cannot be ruled out a bit farther south and within the instability axis. Elsewhere, high-based convection from northern AZ across UT will gradually weaken as well with the loss of heating and as the influence of the upper trough to the north lessens. ..Jewell.. 09/30/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0755 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024 Valid 300100Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast for the remainder of the period. ...Discussion... Scattered low-topped convection remains ongoing from WV into VA and central NC, where weak instability exists. This activity will continue to diminish with the loss of heating. To the south, stronger storms exist over the east-central FL Peninsula near Cape Canaveral. However, this activity is mostly producing heavy rain and lightning in a weak-shear environment, and will continue to spread offshore. Additional isolated activity cannot be ruled out a bit farther south and within the instability axis. Elsewhere, high-based convection from northern AZ across UT will gradually weaken as well with the loss of heating and as the influence of the upper trough to the north lessens. ..Jewell.. 09/30/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0755 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024 Valid 300100Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast for the remainder of the period. ...Discussion... Scattered low-topped convection remains ongoing from WV into VA and central NC, where weak instability exists. This activity will continue to diminish with the loss of heating. To the south, stronger storms exist over the east-central FL Peninsula near Cape Canaveral. However, this activity is mostly producing heavy rain and lightning in a weak-shear environment, and will continue to spread offshore. Additional isolated activity cannot be ruled out a bit farther south and within the instability axis. Elsewhere, high-based convection from northern AZ across UT will gradually weaken as well with the loss of heating and as the influence of the upper trough to the north lessens. ..Jewell.. 09/30/2024 Read more

No watches are valid as of Sun Sep 29 23:52:01 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Sep 29 23:52:01 UTC 2024.