Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1034 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Valid 301700Z - 011200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA... The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed based on trends in recent guidance. Mid-morning observations depict a strong cold front pushing southeast across the central and northern Plains. Post-frontal winds between 15-25 mph (gusting to 35-45 mph) are being reported with RH values beginning to fall with the diurnal heating cycle. Confidence remains high in several hours of critical fire weather conditions for central NE into central SD. 12z guidance that has captured the progression of the front and wind/RH trends the best - namely the RAP and HRRR - suggest dry/breezy post-frontal conditions may extended as far east as the MN/WI border by late afternoon, necessitating a slight eastward expansion of the Elevated risk area. Elevated wind/RH criteria may be met as far south as southeast CO, southern KS, and northwest OK later tonight; however, fuel conditions are not as dry compared to locations further north, and the strongest winds will likely be offset from peak heating. These concerns precluded a southward expansion despite reasonably high confidence in somewhat dry/windy conditions. ..Moore.. 09/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0115 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... Very strong winds are in place behind a cold front which is moving across Montana early this morning. Some sustained winds over 30 mph have been reported with gusts over 50 mph. As this front moves southeast, these breezy conditions are expected to continue in the post-frontal airmass. Poor overnight recoveries are occurring across the central Plains this morning with some relative humidity less than 25-30 percent, which is expected to continue through morning. In the immediate wake of the cold front late this morning and during the early afternoon, relative humidities are expected to be low before colder air arrives. Therefore, some critical fire weather concerns are expected across portions of Nebraska and South Dakota this afternoon. Farther west, some dry and breezy conditions are possible in terrain-favored areas of northeast Utah and southwest Wyoming where an Elevated is in place to cover this threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1034 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Valid 301700Z - 011200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA... The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed based on trends in recent guidance. Mid-morning observations depict a strong cold front pushing southeast across the central and northern Plains. Post-frontal winds between 15-25 mph (gusting to 35-45 mph) are being reported with RH values beginning to fall with the diurnal heating cycle. Confidence remains high in several hours of critical fire weather conditions for central NE into central SD. 12z guidance that has captured the progression of the front and wind/RH trends the best - namely the RAP and HRRR - suggest dry/breezy post-frontal conditions may extended as far east as the MN/WI border by late afternoon, necessitating a slight eastward expansion of the Elevated risk area. Elevated wind/RH criteria may be met as far south as southeast CO, southern KS, and northwest OK later tonight; however, fuel conditions are not as dry compared to locations further north, and the strongest winds will likely be offset from peak heating. These concerns precluded a southward expansion despite reasonably high confidence in somewhat dry/windy conditions. ..Moore.. 09/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0115 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... Very strong winds are in place behind a cold front which is moving across Montana early this morning. Some sustained winds over 30 mph have been reported with gusts over 50 mph. As this front moves southeast, these breezy conditions are expected to continue in the post-frontal airmass. Poor overnight recoveries are occurring across the central Plains this morning with some relative humidity less than 25-30 percent, which is expected to continue through morning. In the immediate wake of the cold front late this morning and during the early afternoon, relative humidities are expected to be low before colder air arrives. Therefore, some critical fire weather concerns are expected across portions of Nebraska and South Dakota this afternoon. Farther west, some dry and breezy conditions are possible in terrain-favored areas of northeast Utah and southwest Wyoming where an Elevated is in place to cover this threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1034 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Valid 301700Z - 011200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA... The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed based on trends in recent guidance. Mid-morning observations depict a strong cold front pushing southeast across the central and northern Plains. Post-frontal winds between 15-25 mph (gusting to 35-45 mph) are being reported with RH values beginning to fall with the diurnal heating cycle. Confidence remains high in several hours of critical fire weather conditions for central NE into central SD. 12z guidance that has captured the progression of the front and wind/RH trends the best - namely the RAP and HRRR - suggest dry/breezy post-frontal conditions may extended as far east as the MN/WI border by late afternoon, necessitating a slight eastward expansion of the Elevated risk area. Elevated wind/RH criteria may be met as far south as southeast CO, southern KS, and northwest OK later tonight; however, fuel conditions are not as dry compared to locations further north, and the strongest winds will likely be offset from peak heating. These concerns precluded a southward expansion despite reasonably high confidence in somewhat dry/windy conditions. ..Moore.. 09/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0115 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... Very strong winds are in place behind a cold front which is moving across Montana early this morning. Some sustained winds over 30 mph have been reported with gusts over 50 mph. As this front moves southeast, these breezy conditions are expected to continue in the post-frontal airmass. Poor overnight recoveries are occurring across the central Plains this morning with some relative humidity less than 25-30 percent, which is expected to continue through morning. In the immediate wake of the cold front late this morning and during the early afternoon, relative humidities are expected to be low before colder air arrives. Therefore, some critical fire weather concerns are expected across portions of Nebraska and South Dakota this afternoon. Farther west, some dry and breezy conditions are possible in terrain-favored areas of northeast Utah and southwest Wyoming where an Elevated is in place to cover this threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0737 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Valid 301300Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today, though a few strong storms may affect central/eastern North Carolina. ...Synopsis/Discussion... The main belt of mid/upper-level, midlatitude westerlies will continue to traverse the northwestern/north-central CONUS and central/southwestern Canada, buckled cyclonically around a prominent synoptic trough now located from eastern SK to central MT and western WY. This trough should phase with another now over central mainland Arctic Canada by the end of the period, resulting in a 500-mb low over southeastern Nunavut, with trough trailing over western Hudson Bay, northwesternmost ON, MN, and IA. Strongly difluent flow aloft will take shape southeast of the trough, across the Mississippi Valley, the Great Lakes from Michigan/Huron on down, the Ohio Valley, and much of the Appalachians. As that occurs, a longstanding, filling, weakening low now over southwestern WV will devolve today to an open-wave trough, losing amplitude rapidly and drifting eastward over the central Appalachians through the period. Part of a basal shortwave trough/vorticity lobe -- now apparent in moisture-channel imagery over eastern TN -- will eject eastward across northern NC and southern VA from this afternoon through tonight. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a quasistationary front across northern SC to just south of the southern Outer Banks, extending from a triple-point low near CAE. This boundary should shift northward over central/eastern NC through the day. Meanwhile, a cold front -- related to the strong northern-stream trough -- was drawn from central/southern MB across southern ND, central SD, northwestern NE, and southern WY. This front should sweep across most of the Great Plains and upper Mississippi Valley through the period, reaching northern Lower MI, IL, southwestern MO, southern OK, and the TX South Plains by 12Z. ...Central/eastern NC... Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon over the Piedmont and coastal plain, in an environment characterized by rich boundary-layer moisture (surface dewpoints commonly in upper 60 to mid 70s F) very weak ambient MLCINH easily removed by diurnal heating, but weak mid/upper-level lapse rates. This will result in 500-1200 J/kg MLCAPE over most of the area from he Piedmont to the Sounds, beneath a belt of sufficiently strong mid/upper flow to yield around 35-45-kt effective-shear magnitudes. Low-level hodographs over central/eastern NC this afternoon, from model forecast soundings, reasonably show curvature near the frontal zone, but with weak speeds in the lowest couple km that substantially limit SRH and vector shear. However, above 1 km, hodographs are somewhat long and straight, suggesting the potential for low-end supercells amidst the mode common multicellular modes. At this time, forecast shear appears too weak to support an unconditional tornado-threat area, but the scenario will be monitored for any mesoscale enhancement to shear (especially along boundaries) that may introduce such a risk. The gust threat appears subsevere at this time, though localized gusts approaching severe limits cannot be ruled out. ..Edwards/Broyles.. 09/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0737 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Valid 301300Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today, though a few strong storms may affect central/eastern North Carolina. ...Synopsis/Discussion... The main belt of mid/upper-level, midlatitude westerlies will continue to traverse the northwestern/north-central CONUS and central/southwestern Canada, buckled cyclonically around a prominent synoptic trough now located from eastern SK to central MT and western WY. This trough should phase with another now over central mainland Arctic Canada by the end of the period, resulting in a 500-mb low over southeastern Nunavut, with trough trailing over western Hudson Bay, northwesternmost ON, MN, and IA. Strongly difluent flow aloft will take shape southeast of the trough, across the Mississippi Valley, the Great Lakes from Michigan/Huron on down, the Ohio Valley, and much of the Appalachians. As that occurs, a longstanding, filling, weakening low now over southwestern WV will devolve today to an open-wave trough, losing amplitude rapidly and drifting eastward over the central Appalachians through the period. Part of a basal shortwave trough/vorticity lobe -- now apparent in moisture-channel imagery over eastern TN -- will eject eastward across northern NC and southern VA from this afternoon through tonight. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a quasistationary front across northern SC to just south of the southern Outer Banks, extending from a triple-point low near CAE. This boundary should shift northward over central/eastern NC through the day. Meanwhile, a cold front -- related to the strong northern-stream trough -- was drawn from central/southern MB across southern ND, central SD, northwestern NE, and southern WY. This front should sweep across most of the Great Plains and upper Mississippi Valley through the period, reaching northern Lower MI, IL, southwestern MO, southern OK, and the TX South Plains by 12Z. ...Central/eastern NC... Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon over the Piedmont and coastal plain, in an environment characterized by rich boundary-layer moisture (surface dewpoints commonly in upper 60 to mid 70s F) very weak ambient MLCINH easily removed by diurnal heating, but weak mid/upper-level lapse rates. This will result in 500-1200 J/kg MLCAPE over most of the area from he Piedmont to the Sounds, beneath a belt of sufficiently strong mid/upper flow to yield around 35-45-kt effective-shear magnitudes. Low-level hodographs over central/eastern NC this afternoon, from model forecast soundings, reasonably show curvature near the frontal zone, but with weak speeds in the lowest couple km that substantially limit SRH and vector shear. However, above 1 km, hodographs are somewhat long and straight, suggesting the potential for low-end supercells amidst the mode common multicellular modes. At this time, forecast shear appears too weak to support an unconditional tornado-threat area, but the scenario will be monitored for any mesoscale enhancement to shear (especially along boundaries) that may introduce such a risk. The gust threat appears subsevere at this time, though localized gusts approaching severe limits cannot be ruled out. ..Edwards/Broyles.. 09/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0737 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Valid 301300Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today, though a few strong storms may affect central/eastern North Carolina. ...Synopsis/Discussion... The main belt of mid/upper-level, midlatitude westerlies will continue to traverse the northwestern/north-central CONUS and central/southwestern Canada, buckled cyclonically around a prominent synoptic trough now located from eastern SK to central MT and western WY. This trough should phase with another now over central mainland Arctic Canada by the end of the period, resulting in a 500-mb low over southeastern Nunavut, with trough trailing over western Hudson Bay, northwesternmost ON, MN, and IA. Strongly difluent flow aloft will take shape southeast of the trough, across the Mississippi Valley, the Great Lakes from Michigan/Huron on down, the Ohio Valley, and much of the Appalachians. As that occurs, a longstanding, filling, weakening low now over southwestern WV will devolve today to an open-wave trough, losing amplitude rapidly and drifting eastward over the central Appalachians through the period. Part of a basal shortwave trough/vorticity lobe -- now apparent in moisture-channel imagery over eastern TN -- will eject eastward across northern NC and southern VA from this afternoon through tonight. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a quasistationary front across northern SC to just south of the southern Outer Banks, extending from a triple-point low near CAE. This boundary should shift northward over central/eastern NC through the day. Meanwhile, a cold front -- related to the strong northern-stream trough -- was drawn from central/southern MB across southern ND, central SD, northwestern NE, and southern WY. This front should sweep across most of the Great Plains and upper Mississippi Valley through the period, reaching northern Lower MI, IL, southwestern MO, southern OK, and the TX South Plains by 12Z. ...Central/eastern NC... Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon over the Piedmont and coastal plain, in an environment characterized by rich boundary-layer moisture (surface dewpoints commonly in upper 60 to mid 70s F) very weak ambient MLCINH easily removed by diurnal heating, but weak mid/upper-level lapse rates. This will result in 500-1200 J/kg MLCAPE over most of the area from he Piedmont to the Sounds, beneath a belt of sufficiently strong mid/upper flow to yield around 35-45-kt effective-shear magnitudes. Low-level hodographs over central/eastern NC this afternoon, from model forecast soundings, reasonably show curvature near the frontal zone, but with weak speeds in the lowest couple km that substantially limit SRH and vector shear. However, above 1 km, hodographs are somewhat long and straight, suggesting the potential for low-end supercells amidst the mode common multicellular modes. At this time, forecast shear appears too weak to support an unconditional tornado-threat area, but the scenario will be monitored for any mesoscale enhancement to shear (especially along boundaries) that may introduce such a risk. The gust threat appears subsevere at this time, though localized gusts approaching severe limits cannot be ruled out. ..Edwards/Broyles.. 09/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0737 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Valid 301300Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today, though a few strong storms may affect central/eastern North Carolina. ...Synopsis/Discussion... The main belt of mid/upper-level, midlatitude westerlies will continue to traverse the northwestern/north-central CONUS and central/southwestern Canada, buckled cyclonically around a prominent synoptic trough now located from eastern SK to central MT and western WY. This trough should phase with another now over central mainland Arctic Canada by the end of the period, resulting in a 500-mb low over southeastern Nunavut, with trough trailing over western Hudson Bay, northwesternmost ON, MN, and IA. Strongly difluent flow aloft will take shape southeast of the trough, across the Mississippi Valley, the Great Lakes from Michigan/Huron on down, the Ohio Valley, and much of the Appalachians. As that occurs, a longstanding, filling, weakening low now over southwestern WV will devolve today to an open-wave trough, losing amplitude rapidly and drifting eastward over the central Appalachians through the period. Part of a basal shortwave trough/vorticity lobe -- now apparent in moisture-channel imagery over eastern TN -- will eject eastward across northern NC and southern VA from this afternoon through tonight. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a quasistationary front across northern SC to just south of the southern Outer Banks, extending from a triple-point low near CAE. This boundary should shift northward over central/eastern NC through the day. Meanwhile, a cold front -- related to the strong northern-stream trough -- was drawn from central/southern MB across southern ND, central SD, northwestern NE, and southern WY. This front should sweep across most of the Great Plains and upper Mississippi Valley through the period, reaching northern Lower MI, IL, southwestern MO, southern OK, and the TX South Plains by 12Z. ...Central/eastern NC... Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon over the Piedmont and coastal plain, in an environment characterized by rich boundary-layer moisture (surface dewpoints commonly in upper 60 to mid 70s F) very weak ambient MLCINH easily removed by diurnal heating, but weak mid/upper-level lapse rates. This will result in 500-1200 J/kg MLCAPE over most of the area from he Piedmont to the Sounds, beneath a belt of sufficiently strong mid/upper flow to yield around 35-45-kt effective-shear magnitudes. Low-level hodographs over central/eastern NC this afternoon, from model forecast soundings, reasonably show curvature near the frontal zone, but with weak speeds in the lowest couple km that substantially limit SRH and vector shear. However, above 1 km, hodographs are somewhat long and straight, suggesting the potential for low-end supercells amidst the mode common multicellular modes. At this time, forecast shear appears too weak to support an unconditional tornado-threat area, but the scenario will be monitored for any mesoscale enhancement to shear (especially along boundaries) that may introduce such a risk. The gust threat appears subsevere at this time, though localized gusts approaching severe limits cannot be ruled out. ..Edwards/Broyles.. 09/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0737 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Valid 301300Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today, though a few strong storms may affect central/eastern North Carolina. ...Synopsis/Discussion... The main belt of mid/upper-level, midlatitude westerlies will continue to traverse the northwestern/north-central CONUS and central/southwestern Canada, buckled cyclonically around a prominent synoptic trough now located from eastern SK to central MT and western WY. This trough should phase with another now over central mainland Arctic Canada by the end of the period, resulting in a 500-mb low over southeastern Nunavut, with trough trailing over western Hudson Bay, northwesternmost ON, MN, and IA. Strongly difluent flow aloft will take shape southeast of the trough, across the Mississippi Valley, the Great Lakes from Michigan/Huron on down, the Ohio Valley, and much of the Appalachians. As that occurs, a longstanding, filling, weakening low now over southwestern WV will devolve today to an open-wave trough, losing amplitude rapidly and drifting eastward over the central Appalachians through the period. Part of a basal shortwave trough/vorticity lobe -- now apparent in moisture-channel imagery over eastern TN -- will eject eastward across northern NC and southern VA from this afternoon through tonight. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a quasistationary front across northern SC to just south of the southern Outer Banks, extending from a triple-point low near CAE. This boundary should shift northward over central/eastern NC through the day. Meanwhile, a cold front -- related to the strong northern-stream trough -- was drawn from central/southern MB across southern ND, central SD, northwestern NE, and southern WY. This front should sweep across most of the Great Plains and upper Mississippi Valley through the period, reaching northern Lower MI, IL, southwestern MO, southern OK, and the TX South Plains by 12Z. ...Central/eastern NC... Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon over the Piedmont and coastal plain, in an environment characterized by rich boundary-layer moisture (surface dewpoints commonly in upper 60 to mid 70s F) very weak ambient MLCINH easily removed by diurnal heating, but weak mid/upper-level lapse rates. This will result in 500-1200 J/kg MLCAPE over most of the area from he Piedmont to the Sounds, beneath a belt of sufficiently strong mid/upper flow to yield around 35-45-kt effective-shear magnitudes. Low-level hodographs over central/eastern NC this afternoon, from model forecast soundings, reasonably show curvature near the frontal zone, but with weak speeds in the lowest couple km that substantially limit SRH and vector shear. However, above 1 km, hodographs are somewhat long and straight, suggesting the potential for low-end supercells amidst the mode common multicellular modes. At this time, forecast shear appears too weak to support an unconditional tornado-threat area, but the scenario will be monitored for any mesoscale enhancement to shear (especially along boundaries) that may introduce such a risk. The gust threat appears subsevere at this time, though localized gusts approaching severe limits cannot be ruled out. ..Edwards/Broyles.. 09/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0737 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Valid 301300Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today, though a few strong storms may affect central/eastern North Carolina. ...Synopsis/Discussion... The main belt of mid/upper-level, midlatitude westerlies will continue to traverse the northwestern/north-central CONUS and central/southwestern Canada, buckled cyclonically around a prominent synoptic trough now located from eastern SK to central MT and western WY. This trough should phase with another now over central mainland Arctic Canada by the end of the period, resulting in a 500-mb low over southeastern Nunavut, with trough trailing over western Hudson Bay, northwesternmost ON, MN, and IA. Strongly difluent flow aloft will take shape southeast of the trough, across the Mississippi Valley, the Great Lakes from Michigan/Huron on down, the Ohio Valley, and much of the Appalachians. As that occurs, a longstanding, filling, weakening low now over southwestern WV will devolve today to an open-wave trough, losing amplitude rapidly and drifting eastward over the central Appalachians through the period. Part of a basal shortwave trough/vorticity lobe -- now apparent in moisture-channel imagery over eastern TN -- will eject eastward across northern NC and southern VA from this afternoon through tonight. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a quasistationary front across northern SC to just south of the southern Outer Banks, extending from a triple-point low near CAE. This boundary should shift northward over central/eastern NC through the day. Meanwhile, a cold front -- related to the strong northern-stream trough -- was drawn from central/southern MB across southern ND, central SD, northwestern NE, and southern WY. This front should sweep across most of the Great Plains and upper Mississippi Valley through the period, reaching northern Lower MI, IL, southwestern MO, southern OK, and the TX South Plains by 12Z. ...Central/eastern NC... Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon over the Piedmont and coastal plain, in an environment characterized by rich boundary-layer moisture (surface dewpoints commonly in upper 60 to mid 70s F) very weak ambient MLCINH easily removed by diurnal heating, but weak mid/upper-level lapse rates. This will result in 500-1200 J/kg MLCAPE over most of the area from he Piedmont to the Sounds, beneath a belt of sufficiently strong mid/upper flow to yield around 35-45-kt effective-shear magnitudes. Low-level hodographs over central/eastern NC this afternoon, from model forecast soundings, reasonably show curvature near the frontal zone, but with weak speeds in the lowest couple km that substantially limit SRH and vector shear. However, above 1 km, hodographs are somewhat long and straight, suggesting the potential for low-end supercells amidst the mode common multicellular modes. At this time, forecast shear appears too weak to support an unconditional tornado-threat area, but the scenario will be monitored for any mesoscale enhancement to shear (especially along boundaries) that may introduce such a risk. The gust threat appears subsevere at this time, though localized gusts approaching severe limits cannot be ruled out. ..Edwards/Broyles.. 09/30/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0339 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... Potential for severe weather continues to appear limited on Thursday and Friday as upper-level flow will remain primarily zonal across the CONUS along with a surface pattern that will not promote northward advection of moisture. By the weekend, the predictability of the upper-level pattern begins to decrease quickly. Both the GFS and ECMWF show flow trying to amplify in the northern half of the CONUS. However, the wave pattern between the two models is out of phase. The ECMWF would suggest at least some low potential for severe weather, given a greater southward advancement of an upper trough this weekend into early next week. Even if this evolution is to verify, this severe potential would be conditional on the magnitude and quality of moisture return after another front moves into the Gulf Coast region late next week. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0339 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... Potential for severe weather continues to appear limited on Thursday and Friday as upper-level flow will remain primarily zonal across the CONUS along with a surface pattern that will not promote northward advection of moisture. By the weekend, the predictability of the upper-level pattern begins to decrease quickly. Both the GFS and ECMWF show flow trying to amplify in the northern half of the CONUS. However, the wave pattern between the two models is out of phase. The ECMWF would suggest at least some low potential for severe weather, given a greater southward advancement of an upper trough this weekend into early next week. Even if this evolution is to verify, this severe potential would be conditional on the magnitude and quality of moisture return after another front moves into the Gulf Coast region late next week. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0339 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... Potential for severe weather continues to appear limited on Thursday and Friday as upper-level flow will remain primarily zonal across the CONUS along with a surface pattern that will not promote northward advection of moisture. By the weekend, the predictability of the upper-level pattern begins to decrease quickly. Both the GFS and ECMWF show flow trying to amplify in the northern half of the CONUS. However, the wave pattern between the two models is out of phase. The ECMWF would suggest at least some low potential for severe weather, given a greater southward advancement of an upper trough this weekend into early next week. Even if this evolution is to verify, this severe potential would be conditional on the magnitude and quality of moisture return after another front moves into the Gulf Coast region late next week. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0339 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... Potential for severe weather continues to appear limited on Thursday and Friday as upper-level flow will remain primarily zonal across the CONUS along with a surface pattern that will not promote northward advection of moisture. By the weekend, the predictability of the upper-level pattern begins to decrease quickly. Both the GFS and ECMWF show flow trying to amplify in the northern half of the CONUS. However, the wave pattern between the two models is out of phase. The ECMWF would suggest at least some low potential for severe weather, given a greater southward advancement of an upper trough this weekend into early next week. Even if this evolution is to verify, this severe potential would be conditional on the magnitude and quality of moisture return after another front moves into the Gulf Coast region late next week. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0339 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... Potential for severe weather continues to appear limited on Thursday and Friday as upper-level flow will remain primarily zonal across the CONUS along with a surface pattern that will not promote northward advection of moisture. By the weekend, the predictability of the upper-level pattern begins to decrease quickly. Both the GFS and ECMWF show flow trying to amplify in the northern half of the CONUS. However, the wave pattern between the two models is out of phase. The ECMWF would suggest at least some low potential for severe weather, given a greater southward advancement of an upper trough this weekend into early next week. Even if this evolution is to verify, this severe potential would be conditional on the magnitude and quality of moisture return after another front moves into the Gulf Coast region late next week. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0339 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... Potential for severe weather continues to appear limited on Thursday and Friday as upper-level flow will remain primarily zonal across the CONUS along with a surface pattern that will not promote northward advection of moisture. By the weekend, the predictability of the upper-level pattern begins to decrease quickly. Both the GFS and ECMWF show flow trying to amplify in the northern half of the CONUS. However, the wave pattern between the two models is out of phase. The ECMWF would suggest at least some low potential for severe weather, given a greater southward advancement of an upper trough this weekend into early next week. Even if this evolution is to verify, this severe potential would be conditional on the magnitude and quality of moisture return after another front moves into the Gulf Coast region late next week. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A zonal flow pattern aloft is expected to develop by Wednesday morning across the CONUS. The jet stream will be positioned along the Canadian border. Stable conditions in the northern tier of states should generally preclude thunderstorm development with any embedded shortwave troughs. Farther south, upper-level ridging will also minimize thunderstorm potential. Two exceptions are within the Florida Peninsula where the sea breeze will provide sufficient lift for storms during the afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible within a portion of the Mogollon Rim where mid-level moisture still remains. ..Wendt.. 09/30/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A zonal flow pattern aloft is expected to develop by Wednesday morning across the CONUS. The jet stream will be positioned along the Canadian border. Stable conditions in the northern tier of states should generally preclude thunderstorm development with any embedded shortwave troughs. Farther south, upper-level ridging will also minimize thunderstorm potential. Two exceptions are within the Florida Peninsula where the sea breeze will provide sufficient lift for storms during the afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible within a portion of the Mogollon Rim where mid-level moisture still remains. ..Wendt.. 09/30/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A zonal flow pattern aloft is expected to develop by Wednesday morning across the CONUS. The jet stream will be positioned along the Canadian border. Stable conditions in the northern tier of states should generally preclude thunderstorm development with any embedded shortwave troughs. Farther south, upper-level ridging will also minimize thunderstorm potential. Two exceptions are within the Florida Peninsula where the sea breeze will provide sufficient lift for storms during the afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible within a portion of the Mogollon Rim where mid-level moisture still remains. ..Wendt.. 09/30/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A zonal flow pattern aloft is expected to develop by Wednesday morning across the CONUS. The jet stream will be positioned along the Canadian border. Stable conditions in the northern tier of states should generally preclude thunderstorm development with any embedded shortwave troughs. Farther south, upper-level ridging will also minimize thunderstorm potential. Two exceptions are within the Florida Peninsula where the sea breeze will provide sufficient lift for storms during the afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible within a portion of the Mogollon Rim where mid-level moisture still remains. ..Wendt.. 09/30/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A zonal flow pattern aloft is expected to develop by Wednesday morning across the CONUS. The jet stream will be positioned along the Canadian border. Stable conditions in the northern tier of states should generally preclude thunderstorm development with any embedded shortwave troughs. Farther south, upper-level ridging will also minimize thunderstorm potential. Two exceptions are within the Florida Peninsula where the sea breeze will provide sufficient lift for storms during the afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible within a portion of the Mogollon Rim where mid-level moisture still remains. ..Wendt.. 09/30/2024 Read more