Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1022 AM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA... The previous forecast remains on track with surface observations showing strengthening winds across central MT and parts of western ND as a surface low begins to deepen across southern SK. This trend will continue as the low deepens further across the southern Canadian Prairies this afternoon. Both the Elevated and Critical risk areas were expanded eastward with this update based on recent 12 UTC guidance, which suggests the axis of stronger 925-850 mb winds (and by extension the corridor with the strongest surface gusts) may be displaced slightly further east than previously anticipated and centered over the western to central Dakotas by peak heating. The 12 UTC GGW sounding sampled these stronger winds just above the nocturnal inversion; elevated to critical fire weather conditions should begin by around 18 UTC as this inversion is mixed out. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 10/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... A strong area of high pressure will initially dominate the pattern across the western 2/3rds of the CONUS for the first half of the day today. However, by midday lee troughing will start to strengthen across Alberta. This will tighten the pressure gradient across the northern Rockies and northern High Plains and result in gusty winds across Montana, the western Dakotas, and into the Nebraska Panhandle/northeast Colorado. The greatest confidence in 20+ mph sustained winds and low relative humidity, in the vicinity of dry fuels, is across eastern Montana and western North Dakota where the Critical delineation is present. Some strong winds are also possible across north-central Montana where relative humidity is expected to be in the low 20s. However, despite conditions that will likely meet Critical criteria, fuels are not that dry across this region and thus, an Elevated area is likely sufficient for the threat. An additional area of dry and breezy conditions is present across southern Wyoming, where winds of 15 to 20 mph are possible with single digit relative humidity. Finally, quite substantial dry and breezy conditions, meeting Critical criteria, are expected across southwest New Mexico and southeast Arizona. However, fuels in this region are not dry enough to support a significant fire threat. Therefore, no Elevated or Critical areas are warranted. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1022 AM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA... The previous forecast remains on track with surface observations showing strengthening winds across central MT and parts of western ND as a surface low begins to deepen across southern SK. This trend will continue as the low deepens further across the southern Canadian Prairies this afternoon. Both the Elevated and Critical risk areas were expanded eastward with this update based on recent 12 UTC guidance, which suggests the axis of stronger 925-850 mb winds (and by extension the corridor with the strongest surface gusts) may be displaced slightly further east than previously anticipated and centered over the western to central Dakotas by peak heating. The 12 UTC GGW sounding sampled these stronger winds just above the nocturnal inversion; elevated to critical fire weather conditions should begin by around 18 UTC as this inversion is mixed out. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 10/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... A strong area of high pressure will initially dominate the pattern across the western 2/3rds of the CONUS for the first half of the day today. However, by midday lee troughing will start to strengthen across Alberta. This will tighten the pressure gradient across the northern Rockies and northern High Plains and result in gusty winds across Montana, the western Dakotas, and into the Nebraska Panhandle/northeast Colorado. The greatest confidence in 20+ mph sustained winds and low relative humidity, in the vicinity of dry fuels, is across eastern Montana and western North Dakota where the Critical delineation is present. Some strong winds are also possible across north-central Montana where relative humidity is expected to be in the low 20s. However, despite conditions that will likely meet Critical criteria, fuels are not that dry across this region and thus, an Elevated area is likely sufficient for the threat. An additional area of dry and breezy conditions is present across southern Wyoming, where winds of 15 to 20 mph are possible with single digit relative humidity. Finally, quite substantial dry and breezy conditions, meeting Critical criteria, are expected across southwest New Mexico and southeast Arizona. However, fuels in this region are not dry enough to support a significant fire threat. Therefore, no Elevated or Critical areas are warranted. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1022 AM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA... The previous forecast remains on track with surface observations showing strengthening winds across central MT and parts of western ND as a surface low begins to deepen across southern SK. This trend will continue as the low deepens further across the southern Canadian Prairies this afternoon. Both the Elevated and Critical risk areas were expanded eastward with this update based on recent 12 UTC guidance, which suggests the axis of stronger 925-850 mb winds (and by extension the corridor with the strongest surface gusts) may be displaced slightly further east than previously anticipated and centered over the western to central Dakotas by peak heating. The 12 UTC GGW sounding sampled these stronger winds just above the nocturnal inversion; elevated to critical fire weather conditions should begin by around 18 UTC as this inversion is mixed out. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 10/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... A strong area of high pressure will initially dominate the pattern across the western 2/3rds of the CONUS for the first half of the day today. However, by midday lee troughing will start to strengthen across Alberta. This will tighten the pressure gradient across the northern Rockies and northern High Plains and result in gusty winds across Montana, the western Dakotas, and into the Nebraska Panhandle/northeast Colorado. The greatest confidence in 20+ mph sustained winds and low relative humidity, in the vicinity of dry fuels, is across eastern Montana and western North Dakota where the Critical delineation is present. Some strong winds are also possible across north-central Montana where relative humidity is expected to be in the low 20s. However, despite conditions that will likely meet Critical criteria, fuels are not that dry across this region and thus, an Elevated area is likely sufficient for the threat. An additional area of dry and breezy conditions is present across southern Wyoming, where winds of 15 to 20 mph are possible with single digit relative humidity. Finally, quite substantial dry and breezy conditions, meeting Critical criteria, are expected across southwest New Mexico and southeast Arizona. However, fuels in this region are not dry enough to support a significant fire threat. Therefore, no Elevated or Critical areas are warranted. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0725 AM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024 Valid 011300Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, the main belt of westerlies is expected to remain near the Canadian border through the period, extending across more of the Great Lakes with time. That will occur as a synoptic- scale trough -- evident in moisture-channel imagery from a low over westernmost parts of Hudson Bay across northwestern ON to the upper Mississippi Valley -- ejects northeastward over northern ON, and James and Hudson Bays, through the period. This stronger flow will remain well poleward of thunder potential today near a weakening/ ejecting trough over the Tidewater region, south of a weak front over FL, and under or south of a weakening synoptic ridge over parts of CO/NM/AZ. Vertical shear and lapse rates aloft will be too weak in any of those areas to support organized severe potential. Locally strong gusts may accompany the high-based convection in AZ, with a deep/well-mixed subcloud layer, but only modest (5-15 kt) midlevel easterlies. A cold front sweeping across the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, lower Mississippi Valley, and southern Plains, should encounter a marginally moist/unstable airmass for isolated thunder, within a band of convection over parts of the eastern Great Lakes. ..Edwards/Dean.. 10/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0725 AM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024 Valid 011300Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, the main belt of westerlies is expected to remain near the Canadian border through the period, extending across more of the Great Lakes with time. That will occur as a synoptic- scale trough -- evident in moisture-channel imagery from a low over westernmost parts of Hudson Bay across northwestern ON to the upper Mississippi Valley -- ejects northeastward over northern ON, and James and Hudson Bays, through the period. This stronger flow will remain well poleward of thunder potential today near a weakening/ ejecting trough over the Tidewater region, south of a weak front over FL, and under or south of a weakening synoptic ridge over parts of CO/NM/AZ. Vertical shear and lapse rates aloft will be too weak in any of those areas to support organized severe potential. Locally strong gusts may accompany the high-based convection in AZ, with a deep/well-mixed subcloud layer, but only modest (5-15 kt) midlevel easterlies. A cold front sweeping across the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, lower Mississippi Valley, and southern Plains, should encounter a marginally moist/unstable airmass for isolated thunder, within a band of convection over parts of the eastern Great Lakes. ..Edwards/Dean.. 10/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0725 AM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024 Valid 011300Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, the main belt of westerlies is expected to remain near the Canadian border through the period, extending across more of the Great Lakes with time. That will occur as a synoptic- scale trough -- evident in moisture-channel imagery from a low over westernmost parts of Hudson Bay across northwestern ON to the upper Mississippi Valley -- ejects northeastward over northern ON, and James and Hudson Bays, through the period. This stronger flow will remain well poleward of thunder potential today near a weakening/ ejecting trough over the Tidewater region, south of a weak front over FL, and under or south of a weakening synoptic ridge over parts of CO/NM/AZ. Vertical shear and lapse rates aloft will be too weak in any of those areas to support organized severe potential. Locally strong gusts may accompany the high-based convection in AZ, with a deep/well-mixed subcloud layer, but only modest (5-15 kt) midlevel easterlies. A cold front sweeping across the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, lower Mississippi Valley, and southern Plains, should encounter a marginally moist/unstable airmass for isolated thunder, within a band of convection over parts of the eastern Great Lakes. ..Edwards/Dean.. 10/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0725 AM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024 Valid 011300Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, the main belt of westerlies is expected to remain near the Canadian border through the period, extending across more of the Great Lakes with time. That will occur as a synoptic- scale trough -- evident in moisture-channel imagery from a low over westernmost parts of Hudson Bay across northwestern ON to the upper Mississippi Valley -- ejects northeastward over northern ON, and James and Hudson Bays, through the period. This stronger flow will remain well poleward of thunder potential today near a weakening/ ejecting trough over the Tidewater region, south of a weak front over FL, and under or south of a weakening synoptic ridge over parts of CO/NM/AZ. Vertical shear and lapse rates aloft will be too weak in any of those areas to support organized severe potential. Locally strong gusts may accompany the high-based convection in AZ, with a deep/well-mixed subcloud layer, but only modest (5-15 kt) midlevel easterlies. A cold front sweeping across the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, lower Mississippi Valley, and southern Plains, should encounter a marginally moist/unstable airmass for isolated thunder, within a band of convection over parts of the eastern Great Lakes. ..Edwards/Dean.. 10/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0725 AM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024 Valid 011300Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, the main belt of westerlies is expected to remain near the Canadian border through the period, extending across more of the Great Lakes with time. That will occur as a synoptic- scale trough -- evident in moisture-channel imagery from a low over westernmost parts of Hudson Bay across northwestern ON to the upper Mississippi Valley -- ejects northeastward over northern ON, and James and Hudson Bays, through the period. This stronger flow will remain well poleward of thunder potential today near a weakening/ ejecting trough over the Tidewater region, south of a weak front over FL, and under or south of a weakening synoptic ridge over parts of CO/NM/AZ. Vertical shear and lapse rates aloft will be too weak in any of those areas to support organized severe potential. Locally strong gusts may accompany the high-based convection in AZ, with a deep/well-mixed subcloud layer, but only modest (5-15 kt) midlevel easterlies. A cold front sweeping across the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, lower Mississippi Valley, and southern Plains, should encounter a marginally moist/unstable airmass for isolated thunder, within a band of convection over parts of the eastern Great Lakes. ..Edwards/Dean.. 10/01/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0319 AM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... Recent model guidance has come into better agreement with regard to the upper-level pattern this weekend into early next week. As zonal flow begins to break down this Friday, an upper-level trough will dig southeastward and strengthen. Though conditional and uncertain, some severe threat could develop in association with this trough. After this trough exits the East Coast, ridging aloft and at the surface is expected to develop in its wake. On Saturday, a cold front will move through the Upper Midwest. Some moisture return is possible on the western flank of the surface ridge, but the quality of this moisture is highly uncertain. Wind fields would support organized storms in parts of the upper Mississippi Valley, but predictability remains quite low. For Sunday, the upper-level trough will continue southeastward with some intensification expected, especially towards Monday morning. A similar setup to Saturday will occur in parts of the upper Ohio Valley region. The strongest shear will likely be post-frontal, but some stronger storms could develop along the front during the afternoon. Moisture return ahead of the boundary remains a question and will be the key to severe potential. A strong mid-level jet will dig into the Mid-Atlantic Monday morning. Given the misaligned timing of the trough with diurnal heating, it is not clear that sufficient buoyancy will be present for an organized severe threat. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0319 AM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... Recent model guidance has come into better agreement with regard to the upper-level pattern this weekend into early next week. As zonal flow begins to break down this Friday, an upper-level trough will dig southeastward and strengthen. Though conditional and uncertain, some severe threat could develop in association with this trough. After this trough exits the East Coast, ridging aloft and at the surface is expected to develop in its wake. On Saturday, a cold front will move through the Upper Midwest. Some moisture return is possible on the western flank of the surface ridge, but the quality of this moisture is highly uncertain. Wind fields would support organized storms in parts of the upper Mississippi Valley, but predictability remains quite low. For Sunday, the upper-level trough will continue southeastward with some intensification expected, especially towards Monday morning. A similar setup to Saturday will occur in parts of the upper Ohio Valley region. The strongest shear will likely be post-frontal, but some stronger storms could develop along the front during the afternoon. Moisture return ahead of the boundary remains a question and will be the key to severe potential. A strong mid-level jet will dig into the Mid-Atlantic Monday morning. Given the misaligned timing of the trough with diurnal heating, it is not clear that sufficient buoyancy will be present for an organized severe threat. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0319 AM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... Recent model guidance has come into better agreement with regard to the upper-level pattern this weekend into early next week. As zonal flow begins to break down this Friday, an upper-level trough will dig southeastward and strengthen. Though conditional and uncertain, some severe threat could develop in association with this trough. After this trough exits the East Coast, ridging aloft and at the surface is expected to develop in its wake. On Saturday, a cold front will move through the Upper Midwest. Some moisture return is possible on the western flank of the surface ridge, but the quality of this moisture is highly uncertain. Wind fields would support organized storms in parts of the upper Mississippi Valley, but predictability remains quite low. For Sunday, the upper-level trough will continue southeastward with some intensification expected, especially towards Monday morning. A similar setup to Saturday will occur in parts of the upper Ohio Valley region. The strongest shear will likely be post-frontal, but some stronger storms could develop along the front during the afternoon. Moisture return ahead of the boundary remains a question and will be the key to severe potential. A strong mid-level jet will dig into the Mid-Atlantic Monday morning. Given the misaligned timing of the trough with diurnal heating, it is not clear that sufficient buoyancy will be present for an organized severe threat. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0319 AM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... Recent model guidance has come into better agreement with regard to the upper-level pattern this weekend into early next week. As zonal flow begins to break down this Friday, an upper-level trough will dig southeastward and strengthen. Though conditional and uncertain, some severe threat could develop in association with this trough. After this trough exits the East Coast, ridging aloft and at the surface is expected to develop in its wake. On Saturday, a cold front will move through the Upper Midwest. Some moisture return is possible on the western flank of the surface ridge, but the quality of this moisture is highly uncertain. Wind fields would support organized storms in parts of the upper Mississippi Valley, but predictability remains quite low. For Sunday, the upper-level trough will continue southeastward with some intensification expected, especially towards Monday morning. A similar setup to Saturday will occur in parts of the upper Ohio Valley region. The strongest shear will likely be post-frontal, but some stronger storms could develop along the front during the afternoon. Moisture return ahead of the boundary remains a question and will be the key to severe potential. A strong mid-level jet will dig into the Mid-Atlantic Monday morning. Given the misaligned timing of the trough with diurnal heating, it is not clear that sufficient buoyancy will be present for an organized severe threat. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0319 AM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... Recent model guidance has come into better agreement with regard to the upper-level pattern this weekend into early next week. As zonal flow begins to break down this Friday, an upper-level trough will dig southeastward and strengthen. Though conditional and uncertain, some severe threat could develop in association with this trough. After this trough exits the East Coast, ridging aloft and at the surface is expected to develop in its wake. On Saturday, a cold front will move through the Upper Midwest. Some moisture return is possible on the western flank of the surface ridge, but the quality of this moisture is highly uncertain. Wind fields would support organized storms in parts of the upper Mississippi Valley, but predictability remains quite low. For Sunday, the upper-level trough will continue southeastward with some intensification expected, especially towards Monday morning. A similar setup to Saturday will occur in parts of the upper Ohio Valley region. The strongest shear will likely be post-frontal, but some stronger storms could develop along the front during the afternoon. Moisture return ahead of the boundary remains a question and will be the key to severe potential. A strong mid-level jet will dig into the Mid-Atlantic Monday morning. Given the misaligned timing of the trough with diurnal heating, it is not clear that sufficient buoyancy will be present for an organized severe threat. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0319 AM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... Recent model guidance has come into better agreement with regard to the upper-level pattern this weekend into early next week. As zonal flow begins to break down this Friday, an upper-level trough will dig southeastward and strengthen. Though conditional and uncertain, some severe threat could develop in association with this trough. After this trough exits the East Coast, ridging aloft and at the surface is expected to develop in its wake. On Saturday, a cold front will move through the Upper Midwest. Some moisture return is possible on the western flank of the surface ridge, but the quality of this moisture is highly uncertain. Wind fields would support organized storms in parts of the upper Mississippi Valley, but predictability remains quite low. For Sunday, the upper-level trough will continue southeastward with some intensification expected, especially towards Monday morning. A similar setup to Saturday will occur in parts of the upper Ohio Valley region. The strongest shear will likely be post-frontal, but some stronger storms could develop along the front during the afternoon. Moisture return ahead of the boundary remains a question and will be the key to severe potential. A strong mid-level jet will dig into the Mid-Atlantic Monday morning. Given the misaligned timing of the trough with diurnal heating, it is not clear that sufficient buoyancy will be present for an organized severe threat. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... Generally zonal flow aloft is expected to continue across the northern CONUS. Upper-level ridging will remain in place across the central/southern CONUS. At the surface, a weakening cold front will be positioned along the Gulf Coast into northern Florida. A secondary, stronger cold front will move southward into the central Plains extending northeastward into the Midwest. Typical diurnally driven thunderstorms are expected in parts of the Florida Peninsula. Towards Friday morning, a very weak disturbance moving northward through the central Gulf may promote additional thunderstorms from southeastern Louisiana into the Florida Panhandle. Some elevated instability is possible near the cold front in northern Missouri as mid-level cooling and modest 850 mb moistening occurs. Given the weak low-level jet and limited moisture, convective development appears unlikely. ..Wendt.. 10/01/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... Generally zonal flow aloft is expected to continue across the northern CONUS. Upper-level ridging will remain in place across the central/southern CONUS. At the surface, a weakening cold front will be positioned along the Gulf Coast into northern Florida. A secondary, stronger cold front will move southward into the central Plains extending northeastward into the Midwest. Typical diurnally driven thunderstorms are expected in parts of the Florida Peninsula. Towards Friday morning, a very weak disturbance moving northward through the central Gulf may promote additional thunderstorms from southeastern Louisiana into the Florida Panhandle. Some elevated instability is possible near the cold front in northern Missouri as mid-level cooling and modest 850 mb moistening occurs. Given the weak low-level jet and limited moisture, convective development appears unlikely. ..Wendt.. 10/01/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... Generally zonal flow aloft is expected to continue across the northern CONUS. Upper-level ridging will remain in place across the central/southern CONUS. At the surface, a weakening cold front will be positioned along the Gulf Coast into northern Florida. A secondary, stronger cold front will move southward into the central Plains extending northeastward into the Midwest. Typical diurnally driven thunderstorms are expected in parts of the Florida Peninsula. Towards Friday morning, a very weak disturbance moving northward through the central Gulf may promote additional thunderstorms from southeastern Louisiana into the Florida Panhandle. Some elevated instability is possible near the cold front in northern Missouri as mid-level cooling and modest 850 mb moistening occurs. Given the weak low-level jet and limited moisture, convective development appears unlikely. ..Wendt.. 10/01/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... Generally zonal flow aloft is expected to continue across the northern CONUS. Upper-level ridging will remain in place across the central/southern CONUS. At the surface, a weakening cold front will be positioned along the Gulf Coast into northern Florida. A secondary, stronger cold front will move southward into the central Plains extending northeastward into the Midwest. Typical diurnally driven thunderstorms are expected in parts of the Florida Peninsula. Towards Friday morning, a very weak disturbance moving northward through the central Gulf may promote additional thunderstorms from southeastern Louisiana into the Florida Panhandle. Some elevated instability is possible near the cold front in northern Missouri as mid-level cooling and modest 850 mb moistening occurs. Given the weak low-level jet and limited moisture, convective development appears unlikely. ..Wendt.. 10/01/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... Generally zonal flow aloft is expected to continue across the northern CONUS. Upper-level ridging will remain in place across the central/southern CONUS. At the surface, a weakening cold front will be positioned along the Gulf Coast into northern Florida. A secondary, stronger cold front will move southward into the central Plains extending northeastward into the Midwest. Typical diurnally driven thunderstorms are expected in parts of the Florida Peninsula. Towards Friday morning, a very weak disturbance moving northward through the central Gulf may promote additional thunderstorms from southeastern Louisiana into the Florida Panhandle. Some elevated instability is possible near the cold front in northern Missouri as mid-level cooling and modest 850 mb moistening occurs. Given the weak low-level jet and limited moisture, convective development appears unlikely. ..Wendt.. 10/01/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING... ...Synopsis... An elongated mid-level jet will extend along the US/Canada border on Wednesday. At the surface, a cold front will move through the Plains with a weak surface low developing in the central Plains Wednesday night. Ahead of this front, some dry and breezy conditions are expected from the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle to the Upper Midwest. However, the majority of this region lacks dry fuels. Therefore, no Elevated area is justified in this region. An Elevated area has been drawn similar to the prior Day3 40% outlook across southern Wyoming where fuels are critically dry. Sustained winds of 25 to 30 mph are expected, as mid-level flow strengthens and a deeply-mixed airmass permits some of this stronger flow to reach the surface. Single-digit relative humidity is also expected across this region on Wednesday afternoon. Given the upper-end critical conditions expected, a Critical area has been added within the broader Elevated, where these conditions are expected to overlap the driest fuels across southeast Wyoming. ..Bentley.. 10/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more