Severe Storms

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0733 AM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024 Valid 021300Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... The mid/upper-level pattern will be characterized by a belt of gently difluent, west-northwesterly northern-stream flow from the Pacific Northwest to the Great Lakes. This flow will weaken considerably and become much more difluent over the Ohio Valley, mid Mississippi Valley and Appalachians. The strongest flow aloft will be well-displaced from any substantial low-level moisture/theta-e, which is expected to remain along and south of a quasistationary front draped across north-central FL. Scattered daytime thunderstorms are expected to form along FL East and West Coast sea breezes, shifting inland as the boundaries (including outflows from the first generation of convection nearer the coasts) merge. Weak deep-layer flow and lack of shear will preclude organized severe potential. Localized strong gusts are possible in wet downbursts with enhanced lift along colliding boundaries, 1500-2000 J/kg preconvective MLCAPE, and rich inflow- layer moisture (surface dewpoints 70s F and PW commonly over 2 inches). Elsewhere, very isolated/brief lightning may occur near the AZ/NM border and Mogollon Rim, but with barely enough moisture for convection, coverage is expected to be too small for a 10% area. ..Edwards/Dean.. 10/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0733 AM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024 Valid 021300Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... The mid/upper-level pattern will be characterized by a belt of gently difluent, west-northwesterly northern-stream flow from the Pacific Northwest to the Great Lakes. This flow will weaken considerably and become much more difluent over the Ohio Valley, mid Mississippi Valley and Appalachians. The strongest flow aloft will be well-displaced from any substantial low-level moisture/theta-e, which is expected to remain along and south of a quasistationary front draped across north-central FL. Scattered daytime thunderstorms are expected to form along FL East and West Coast sea breezes, shifting inland as the boundaries (including outflows from the first generation of convection nearer the coasts) merge. Weak deep-layer flow and lack of shear will preclude organized severe potential. Localized strong gusts are possible in wet downbursts with enhanced lift along colliding boundaries, 1500-2000 J/kg preconvective MLCAPE, and rich inflow- layer moisture (surface dewpoints 70s F and PW commonly over 2 inches). Elsewhere, very isolated/brief lightning may occur near the AZ/NM border and Mogollon Rim, but with barely enough moisture for convection, coverage is expected to be too small for a 10% area. ..Edwards/Dean.. 10/02/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 AM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... A strong upper trough will move through the Northern Plains and into the upper Great Lakes region on Saturday. An attendant cold front will move eastward along with the trough. This system will then move into the lower Great Lakes/Ohio Valley on Sunday before digging southeastward into the Mid-Atlantic on Monday. Thereafter, models forecast upper ridging to build in across much of the CONUS by the middle of next week, broadly reducing severe weather potential in the process. ...Upper Mississippi Valley... Forcing from the upper-level trough will be strong on Saturday. Storms could develop along the cold front and wind shear would be sufficient for organized storms. Uncertainty remains rather high as the quality of moisture return along the western flank of the anticyclone to the east will be key to overall magnitude of severe potential, should any materialize. ...Upper Ohio Valley... As the upper trough and cold front continue eastward, some destabilization could occur ahead of the front on Sunday afternoon. As with Saturday, moisture quality ahead of the front remains a major question. Severe potential remains uncertain. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 AM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... A strong upper trough will move through the Northern Plains and into the upper Great Lakes region on Saturday. An attendant cold front will move eastward along with the trough. This system will then move into the lower Great Lakes/Ohio Valley on Sunday before digging southeastward into the Mid-Atlantic on Monday. Thereafter, models forecast upper ridging to build in across much of the CONUS by the middle of next week, broadly reducing severe weather potential in the process. ...Upper Mississippi Valley... Forcing from the upper-level trough will be strong on Saturday. Storms could develop along the cold front and wind shear would be sufficient for organized storms. Uncertainty remains rather high as the quality of moisture return along the western flank of the anticyclone to the east will be key to overall magnitude of severe potential, should any materialize. ...Upper Ohio Valley... As the upper trough and cold front continue eastward, some destabilization could occur ahead of the front on Sunday afternoon. As with Saturday, moisture quality ahead of the front remains a major question. Severe potential remains uncertain. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 AM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... A strong upper trough will move through the Northern Plains and into the upper Great Lakes region on Saturday. An attendant cold front will move eastward along with the trough. This system will then move into the lower Great Lakes/Ohio Valley on Sunday before digging southeastward into the Mid-Atlantic on Monday. Thereafter, models forecast upper ridging to build in across much of the CONUS by the middle of next week, broadly reducing severe weather potential in the process. ...Upper Mississippi Valley... Forcing from the upper-level trough will be strong on Saturday. Storms could develop along the cold front and wind shear would be sufficient for organized storms. Uncertainty remains rather high as the quality of moisture return along the western flank of the anticyclone to the east will be key to overall magnitude of severe potential, should any materialize. ...Upper Ohio Valley... As the upper trough and cold front continue eastward, some destabilization could occur ahead of the front on Sunday afternoon. As with Saturday, moisture quality ahead of the front remains a major question. Severe potential remains uncertain. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 AM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... A strong upper trough will move through the Northern Plains and into the upper Great Lakes region on Saturday. An attendant cold front will move eastward along with the trough. This system will then move into the lower Great Lakes/Ohio Valley on Sunday before digging southeastward into the Mid-Atlantic on Monday. Thereafter, models forecast upper ridging to build in across much of the CONUS by the middle of next week, broadly reducing severe weather potential in the process. ...Upper Mississippi Valley... Forcing from the upper-level trough will be strong on Saturday. Storms could develop along the cold front and wind shear would be sufficient for organized storms. Uncertainty remains rather high as the quality of moisture return along the western flank of the anticyclone to the east will be key to overall magnitude of severe potential, should any materialize. ...Upper Ohio Valley... As the upper trough and cold front continue eastward, some destabilization could occur ahead of the front on Sunday afternoon. As with Saturday, moisture quality ahead of the front remains a major question. Severe potential remains uncertain. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 AM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... A strong upper trough will move through the Northern Plains and into the upper Great Lakes region on Saturday. An attendant cold front will move eastward along with the trough. This system will then move into the lower Great Lakes/Ohio Valley on Sunday before digging southeastward into the Mid-Atlantic on Monday. Thereafter, models forecast upper ridging to build in across much of the CONUS by the middle of next week, broadly reducing severe weather potential in the process. ...Upper Mississippi Valley... Forcing from the upper-level trough will be strong on Saturday. Storms could develop along the cold front and wind shear would be sufficient for organized storms. Uncertainty remains rather high as the quality of moisture return along the western flank of the anticyclone to the east will be key to overall magnitude of severe potential, should any materialize. ...Upper Ohio Valley... As the upper trough and cold front continue eastward, some destabilization could occur ahead of the front on Sunday afternoon. As with Saturday, moisture quality ahead of the front remains a major question. Severe potential remains uncertain. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 AM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... A strong upper trough will move through the Northern Plains and into the upper Great Lakes region on Saturday. An attendant cold front will move eastward along with the trough. This system will then move into the lower Great Lakes/Ohio Valley on Sunday before digging southeastward into the Mid-Atlantic on Monday. Thereafter, models forecast upper ridging to build in across much of the CONUS by the middle of next week, broadly reducing severe weather potential in the process. ...Upper Mississippi Valley... Forcing from the upper-level trough will be strong on Saturday. Storms could develop along the cold front and wind shear would be sufficient for organized storms. Uncertainty remains rather high as the quality of moisture return along the western flank of the anticyclone to the east will be key to overall magnitude of severe potential, should any materialize. ...Upper Ohio Valley... As the upper trough and cold front continue eastward, some destabilization could occur ahead of the front on Sunday afternoon. As with Saturday, moisture quality ahead of the front remains a major question. Severe potential remains uncertain. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 AM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... Ridging aloft will continue in the southern half of the CONUS on Friday. A lead upper-level shortwave will move through the upper Great Lakes into the Northeast while a stronger trough will move through the Northwest and northern Rockies. At the surface a cold front will progress eastward together with the lead trough into the Northeast, reaching southwestward into the central Plains. A deep surface cyclone will develop in the Canadian Prairie in response to the western upper trough. Thunderstorms will again be possible along the Gulf Coast near the remnant, weak boundary. Diurnally driven storms are also expected in parts of the Florida Peninsula. Additional storms may develop in the southern Appalachians with a northward moving weak disturbance. Farther west, isolated thunderstorms may develop in central Idaho as strong mid-level ascent overspreads the terrain. ..Wendt.. 10/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 AM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... Ridging aloft will continue in the southern half of the CONUS on Friday. A lead upper-level shortwave will move through the upper Great Lakes into the Northeast while a stronger trough will move through the Northwest and northern Rockies. At the surface a cold front will progress eastward together with the lead trough into the Northeast, reaching southwestward into the central Plains. A deep surface cyclone will develop in the Canadian Prairie in response to the western upper trough. Thunderstorms will again be possible along the Gulf Coast near the remnant, weak boundary. Diurnally driven storms are also expected in parts of the Florida Peninsula. Additional storms may develop in the southern Appalachians with a northward moving weak disturbance. Farther west, isolated thunderstorms may develop in central Idaho as strong mid-level ascent overspreads the terrain. ..Wendt.. 10/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 AM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... Ridging aloft will continue in the southern half of the CONUS on Friday. A lead upper-level shortwave will move through the upper Great Lakes into the Northeast while a stronger trough will move through the Northwest and northern Rockies. At the surface a cold front will progress eastward together with the lead trough into the Northeast, reaching southwestward into the central Plains. A deep surface cyclone will develop in the Canadian Prairie in response to the western upper trough. Thunderstorms will again be possible along the Gulf Coast near the remnant, weak boundary. Diurnally driven storms are also expected in parts of the Florida Peninsula. Additional storms may develop in the southern Appalachians with a northward moving weak disturbance. Farther west, isolated thunderstorms may develop in central Idaho as strong mid-level ascent overspreads the terrain. ..Wendt.. 10/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 AM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... Ridging aloft will continue in the southern half of the CONUS on Friday. A lead upper-level shortwave will move through the upper Great Lakes into the Northeast while a stronger trough will move through the Northwest and northern Rockies. At the surface a cold front will progress eastward together with the lead trough into the Northeast, reaching southwestward into the central Plains. A deep surface cyclone will develop in the Canadian Prairie in response to the western upper trough. Thunderstorms will again be possible along the Gulf Coast near the remnant, weak boundary. Diurnally driven storms are also expected in parts of the Florida Peninsula. Additional storms may develop in the southern Appalachians with a northward moving weak disturbance. Farther west, isolated thunderstorms may develop in central Idaho as strong mid-level ascent overspreads the terrain. ..Wendt.. 10/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 AM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... Ridging aloft will continue in the southern half of the CONUS on Friday. A lead upper-level shortwave will move through the upper Great Lakes into the Northeast while a stronger trough will move through the Northwest and northern Rockies. At the surface a cold front will progress eastward together with the lead trough into the Northeast, reaching southwestward into the central Plains. A deep surface cyclone will develop in the Canadian Prairie in response to the western upper trough. Thunderstorms will again be possible along the Gulf Coast near the remnant, weak boundary. Diurnally driven storms are also expected in parts of the Florida Peninsula. Additional storms may develop in the southern Appalachians with a northward moving weak disturbance. Farther west, isolated thunderstorms may develop in central Idaho as strong mid-level ascent overspreads the terrain. ..Wendt.. 10/02/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The upper-level pattern will start to become less zonal on Thursday with a ridge traversing the Northwest and some troughing developing over the Upper Midwest. The surface pattern will be somewhat nebulous during the day Thursday with surface high pressure building into the northern Plains. Some breezy northeasterly flow may develop in portions of the Plains as this high moves south and the pressure gradient tightens. However, winds do not look that strong at this time, and the cooler airmass should lead to relative humidity mostly above 25 percent. Therefore, some localized elevated conditions are possible, but no Elevated delineation is justified at this time. ..Bentley.. 10/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The upper-level pattern will start to become less zonal on Thursday with a ridge traversing the Northwest and some troughing developing over the Upper Midwest. The surface pattern will be somewhat nebulous during the day Thursday with surface high pressure building into the northern Plains. Some breezy northeasterly flow may develop in portions of the Plains as this high moves south and the pressure gradient tightens. However, winds do not look that strong at this time, and the cooler airmass should lead to relative humidity mostly above 25 percent. Therefore, some localized elevated conditions are possible, but no Elevated delineation is justified at this time. ..Bentley.. 10/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The upper-level pattern will start to become less zonal on Thursday with a ridge traversing the Northwest and some troughing developing over the Upper Midwest. The surface pattern will be somewhat nebulous during the day Thursday with surface high pressure building into the northern Plains. Some breezy northeasterly flow may develop in portions of the Plains as this high moves south and the pressure gradient tightens. However, winds do not look that strong at this time, and the cooler airmass should lead to relative humidity mostly above 25 percent. Therefore, some localized elevated conditions are possible, but no Elevated delineation is justified at this time. ..Bentley.. 10/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The upper-level pattern will start to become less zonal on Thursday with a ridge traversing the Northwest and some troughing developing over the Upper Midwest. The surface pattern will be somewhat nebulous during the day Thursday with surface high pressure building into the northern Plains. Some breezy northeasterly flow may develop in portions of the Plains as this high moves south and the pressure gradient tightens. However, winds do not look that strong at this time, and the cooler airmass should lead to relative humidity mostly above 25 percent. Therefore, some localized elevated conditions are possible, but no Elevated delineation is justified at this time. ..Bentley.. 10/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING... ...Synopsis... An elongated mid-level jet will extend along the US/Canada border today. At the surface, a cold front will move through the Plains with a weak surface low developing in the central Plains tonight. Ahead of this front, some dry and breezy conditions are expected from the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle to the Upper Midwest. Fuels are moist from central Kansas southward, but north of this region, fuels have dried out and some threat for large fire exists. The greatest change to the prior Day 2 fire weather outlook was the addition of much of the northern Plains across the Dakotas and into far eastern Montana. Fuels in this region are very dry, and forecast guidance indicates 15 to 25 mph winds with 15 to 25 percent relative humidity are possible across much of this region. Elevated fire weather conditions are also expected across southern Wyoming where fuels are critically dry and sustained winds of 25 to 30 mph are expected, as mid-level flow strengthens and a deeply mixed airmass permits some of this stronger flow to reach the surface. Single-digit relative humidity is also expected across this region on this afternoon. Most of this region should experience Elevated fire-weather conditions, with some critical conditions across portions of south-central and southeast Wyoming where the Critical delineation is present. ..Bentley.. 10/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING... ...Synopsis... An elongated mid-level jet will extend along the US/Canada border today. At the surface, a cold front will move through the Plains with a weak surface low developing in the central Plains tonight. Ahead of this front, some dry and breezy conditions are expected from the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle to the Upper Midwest. Fuels are moist from central Kansas southward, but north of this region, fuels have dried out and some threat for large fire exists. The greatest change to the prior Day 2 fire weather outlook was the addition of much of the northern Plains across the Dakotas and into far eastern Montana. Fuels in this region are very dry, and forecast guidance indicates 15 to 25 mph winds with 15 to 25 percent relative humidity are possible across much of this region. Elevated fire weather conditions are also expected across southern Wyoming where fuels are critically dry and sustained winds of 25 to 30 mph are expected, as mid-level flow strengthens and a deeply mixed airmass permits some of this stronger flow to reach the surface. Single-digit relative humidity is also expected across this region on this afternoon. Most of this region should experience Elevated fire-weather conditions, with some critical conditions across portions of south-central and southeast Wyoming where the Critical delineation is present. ..Bentley.. 10/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING... ...Synopsis... An elongated mid-level jet will extend along the US/Canada border today. At the surface, a cold front will move through the Plains with a weak surface low developing in the central Plains tonight. Ahead of this front, some dry and breezy conditions are expected from the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle to the Upper Midwest. Fuels are moist from central Kansas southward, but north of this region, fuels have dried out and some threat for large fire exists. The greatest change to the prior Day 2 fire weather outlook was the addition of much of the northern Plains across the Dakotas and into far eastern Montana. Fuels in this region are very dry, and forecast guidance indicates 15 to 25 mph winds with 15 to 25 percent relative humidity are possible across much of this region. Elevated fire weather conditions are also expected across southern Wyoming where fuels are critically dry and sustained winds of 25 to 30 mph are expected, as mid-level flow strengthens and a deeply mixed airmass permits some of this stronger flow to reach the surface. Single-digit relative humidity is also expected across this region on this afternoon. Most of this region should experience Elevated fire-weather conditions, with some critical conditions across portions of south-central and southeast Wyoming where the Critical delineation is present. ..Bentley.. 10/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more