Severe Storms

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 AM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... In mid/upper levels, a nearly zonal northern-stream pattern will prevail either side of the Canadian border, from the Pacific Coast across the Great Lakes to New England. The main feature perturbing that belt for this period will be a strongly positively tilted trough, currently over south-central parts of SK/MB northwestward to north-central AB. This trough will amplify and pivot southeastward/ eastward across northern ON, northern MN and Lake Superior into tonight. By 12Z, the trailing part of this feature should be moving across the western U.P of MI, northern WI and central MN. A weak shortwave trough -- evident in moisture-channel imagery over eastern OR and southwestern ID -- may reach the Quad Cities area of IA/IL by 12Z tomorrow and phase with the larger trough. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a frontal wave low over northwestern KS, with warm front eastward to west-central/ northwestern MO, and cold front across east-central CO. The low should migrate eastward through the period, reaching north-central/ northwestern MO by 12Z, with cold front trailing across southern KS, western OK and the TX South Plains, and warm front extending to east-central MO and southern IL. ...Mid/upper Mississippi Valley... Capping and meager boundary-layer moisture will inhibit convective potential today along/ahead of the front and low. However, an area of isolated to scattered elevated thunderstorms is possible overnight northeast of the low, supported by large-scale DCVA/lift ahead of the ejecting shortwave trough, and warm advection/ isentropic lift to LFC of increasingly moist parcels above the surface. Activity should be rooted in the 700-800-mb layer, amidst MUCAPE roughly 500-800 J/kg, and around 35-40 kt effective-shear magnitudes. This may support small hail, especially early in the convective cycle when cells are still at least somewhat discrete. Modes should become messier and precip more expansive fairly quickly, as inflow-layer moisture and MUCAPE only slowly increase in the immediate upstream airmass to the southwest. The overall severe threat appears too limited and conditional for an outlook at this time. ..Edwards/Dean.. 10/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 AM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... In mid/upper levels, a nearly zonal northern-stream pattern will prevail either side of the Canadian border, from the Pacific Coast across the Great Lakes to New England. The main feature perturbing that belt for this period will be a strongly positively tilted trough, currently over south-central parts of SK/MB northwestward to north-central AB. This trough will amplify and pivot southeastward/ eastward across northern ON, northern MN and Lake Superior into tonight. By 12Z, the trailing part of this feature should be moving across the western U.P of MI, northern WI and central MN. A weak shortwave trough -- evident in moisture-channel imagery over eastern OR and southwestern ID -- may reach the Quad Cities area of IA/IL by 12Z tomorrow and phase with the larger trough. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a frontal wave low over northwestern KS, with warm front eastward to west-central/ northwestern MO, and cold front across east-central CO. The low should migrate eastward through the period, reaching north-central/ northwestern MO by 12Z, with cold front trailing across southern KS, western OK and the TX South Plains, and warm front extending to east-central MO and southern IL. ...Mid/upper Mississippi Valley... Capping and meager boundary-layer moisture will inhibit convective potential today along/ahead of the front and low. However, an area of isolated to scattered elevated thunderstorms is possible overnight northeast of the low, supported by large-scale DCVA/lift ahead of the ejecting shortwave trough, and warm advection/ isentropic lift to LFC of increasingly moist parcels above the surface. Activity should be rooted in the 700-800-mb layer, amidst MUCAPE roughly 500-800 J/kg, and around 35-40 kt effective-shear magnitudes. This may support small hail, especially early in the convective cycle when cells are still at least somewhat discrete. Modes should become messier and precip more expansive fairly quickly, as inflow-layer moisture and MUCAPE only slowly increase in the immediate upstream airmass to the southwest. The overall severe threat appears too limited and conditional for an outlook at this time. ..Edwards/Dean.. 10/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 AM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... In mid/upper levels, a nearly zonal northern-stream pattern will prevail either side of the Canadian border, from the Pacific Coast across the Great Lakes to New England. The main feature perturbing that belt for this period will be a strongly positively tilted trough, currently over south-central parts of SK/MB northwestward to north-central AB. This trough will amplify and pivot southeastward/ eastward across northern ON, northern MN and Lake Superior into tonight. By 12Z, the trailing part of this feature should be moving across the western U.P of MI, northern WI and central MN. A weak shortwave trough -- evident in moisture-channel imagery over eastern OR and southwestern ID -- may reach the Quad Cities area of IA/IL by 12Z tomorrow and phase with the larger trough. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a frontal wave low over northwestern KS, with warm front eastward to west-central/ northwestern MO, and cold front across east-central CO. The low should migrate eastward through the period, reaching north-central/ northwestern MO by 12Z, with cold front trailing across southern KS, western OK and the TX South Plains, and warm front extending to east-central MO and southern IL. ...Mid/upper Mississippi Valley... Capping and meager boundary-layer moisture will inhibit convective potential today along/ahead of the front and low. However, an area of isolated to scattered elevated thunderstorms is possible overnight northeast of the low, supported by large-scale DCVA/lift ahead of the ejecting shortwave trough, and warm advection/ isentropic lift to LFC of increasingly moist parcels above the surface. Activity should be rooted in the 700-800-mb layer, amidst MUCAPE roughly 500-800 J/kg, and around 35-40 kt effective-shear magnitudes. This may support small hail, especially early in the convective cycle when cells are still at least somewhat discrete. Modes should become messier and precip more expansive fairly quickly, as inflow-layer moisture and MUCAPE only slowly increase in the immediate upstream airmass to the southwest. The overall severe threat appears too limited and conditional for an outlook at this time. ..Edwards/Dean.. 10/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 AM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... In mid/upper levels, a nearly zonal northern-stream pattern will prevail either side of the Canadian border, from the Pacific Coast across the Great Lakes to New England. The main feature perturbing that belt for this period will be a strongly positively tilted trough, currently over south-central parts of SK/MB northwestward to north-central AB. This trough will amplify and pivot southeastward/ eastward across northern ON, northern MN and Lake Superior into tonight. By 12Z, the trailing part of this feature should be moving across the western U.P of MI, northern WI and central MN. A weak shortwave trough -- evident in moisture-channel imagery over eastern OR and southwestern ID -- may reach the Quad Cities area of IA/IL by 12Z tomorrow and phase with the larger trough. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a frontal wave low over northwestern KS, with warm front eastward to west-central/ northwestern MO, and cold front across east-central CO. The low should migrate eastward through the period, reaching north-central/ northwestern MO by 12Z, with cold front trailing across southern KS, western OK and the TX South Plains, and warm front extending to east-central MO and southern IL. ...Mid/upper Mississippi Valley... Capping and meager boundary-layer moisture will inhibit convective potential today along/ahead of the front and low. However, an area of isolated to scattered elevated thunderstorms is possible overnight northeast of the low, supported by large-scale DCVA/lift ahead of the ejecting shortwave trough, and warm advection/ isentropic lift to LFC of increasingly moist parcels above the surface. Activity should be rooted in the 700-800-mb layer, amidst MUCAPE roughly 500-800 J/kg, and around 35-40 kt effective-shear magnitudes. This may support small hail, especially early in the convective cycle when cells are still at least somewhat discrete. Modes should become messier and precip more expansive fairly quickly, as inflow-layer moisture and MUCAPE only slowly increase in the immediate upstream airmass to the southwest. The overall severe threat appears too limited and conditional for an outlook at this time. ..Edwards/Dean.. 10/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 AM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... In mid/upper levels, a nearly zonal northern-stream pattern will prevail either side of the Canadian border, from the Pacific Coast across the Great Lakes to New England. The main feature perturbing that belt for this period will be a strongly positively tilted trough, currently over south-central parts of SK/MB northwestward to north-central AB. This trough will amplify and pivot southeastward/ eastward across northern ON, northern MN and Lake Superior into tonight. By 12Z, the trailing part of this feature should be moving across the western U.P of MI, northern WI and central MN. A weak shortwave trough -- evident in moisture-channel imagery over eastern OR and southwestern ID -- may reach the Quad Cities area of IA/IL by 12Z tomorrow and phase with the larger trough. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a frontal wave low over northwestern KS, with warm front eastward to west-central/ northwestern MO, and cold front across east-central CO. The low should migrate eastward through the period, reaching north-central/ northwestern MO by 12Z, with cold front trailing across southern KS, western OK and the TX South Plains, and warm front extending to east-central MO and southern IL. ...Mid/upper Mississippi Valley... Capping and meager boundary-layer moisture will inhibit convective potential today along/ahead of the front and low. However, an area of isolated to scattered elevated thunderstorms is possible overnight northeast of the low, supported by large-scale DCVA/lift ahead of the ejecting shortwave trough, and warm advection/ isentropic lift to LFC of increasingly moist parcels above the surface. Activity should be rooted in the 700-800-mb layer, amidst MUCAPE roughly 500-800 J/kg, and around 35-40 kt effective-shear magnitudes. This may support small hail, especially early in the convective cycle when cells are still at least somewhat discrete. Modes should become messier and precip more expansive fairly quickly, as inflow-layer moisture and MUCAPE only slowly increase in the immediate upstream airmass to the southwest. The overall severe threat appears too limited and conditional for an outlook at this time. ..Edwards/Dean.. 10/03/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0339 AM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... A strong upper trough will broaden across the Upper Midwest into parts of the Northeast on Sunday. An associated cold front will move through the upper Ohio Valley on Sunday and off the Mid-Atlantic Coast early to mid morning on Monday. Thereafter, broad troughing will remain in the Northeast until late in the week as an expansive upper ridge envelops much of the CONUS. ...Upper-Ohio Valley Vicinity... The cold front will continue eastward on Sunday, moving through Ohio during the mid/late afternoon. Moisture return ahead of the front will be the main source of uncertainty in terms of how much severe threat there could be. Mid-level forcing will be sufficient, but low-level veering ahead of the front suggests uncertain storm coverage. A conditional threat for damaging winds exists during the late afternoon. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0339 AM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... A strong upper trough will broaden across the Upper Midwest into parts of the Northeast on Sunday. An associated cold front will move through the upper Ohio Valley on Sunday and off the Mid-Atlantic Coast early to mid morning on Monday. Thereafter, broad troughing will remain in the Northeast until late in the week as an expansive upper ridge envelops much of the CONUS. ...Upper-Ohio Valley Vicinity... The cold front will continue eastward on Sunday, moving through Ohio during the mid/late afternoon. Moisture return ahead of the front will be the main source of uncertainty in terms of how much severe threat there could be. Mid-level forcing will be sufficient, but low-level veering ahead of the front suggests uncertain storm coverage. A conditional threat for damaging winds exists during the late afternoon. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0339 AM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... A strong upper trough will broaden across the Upper Midwest into parts of the Northeast on Sunday. An associated cold front will move through the upper Ohio Valley on Sunday and off the Mid-Atlantic Coast early to mid morning on Monday. Thereafter, broad troughing will remain in the Northeast until late in the week as an expansive upper ridge envelops much of the CONUS. ...Upper-Ohio Valley Vicinity... The cold front will continue eastward on Sunday, moving through Ohio during the mid/late afternoon. Moisture return ahead of the front will be the main source of uncertainty in terms of how much severe threat there could be. Mid-level forcing will be sufficient, but low-level veering ahead of the front suggests uncertain storm coverage. A conditional threat for damaging winds exists during the late afternoon. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0339 AM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... A strong upper trough will broaden across the Upper Midwest into parts of the Northeast on Sunday. An associated cold front will move through the upper Ohio Valley on Sunday and off the Mid-Atlantic Coast early to mid morning on Monday. Thereafter, broad troughing will remain in the Northeast until late in the week as an expansive upper ridge envelops much of the CONUS. ...Upper-Ohio Valley Vicinity... The cold front will continue eastward on Sunday, moving through Ohio during the mid/late afternoon. Moisture return ahead of the front will be the main source of uncertainty in terms of how much severe threat there could be. Mid-level forcing will be sufficient, but low-level veering ahead of the front suggests uncertain storm coverage. A conditional threat for damaging winds exists during the late afternoon. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0339 AM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... A strong upper trough will broaden across the Upper Midwest into parts of the Northeast on Sunday. An associated cold front will move through the upper Ohio Valley on Sunday and off the Mid-Atlantic Coast early to mid morning on Monday. Thereafter, broad troughing will remain in the Northeast until late in the week as an expansive upper ridge envelops much of the CONUS. ...Upper-Ohio Valley Vicinity... The cold front will continue eastward on Sunday, moving through Ohio during the mid/late afternoon. Moisture return ahead of the front will be the main source of uncertainty in terms of how much severe threat there could be. Mid-level forcing will be sufficient, but low-level veering ahead of the front suggests uncertain storm coverage. A conditional threat for damaging winds exists during the late afternoon. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0339 AM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... A strong upper trough will broaden across the Upper Midwest into parts of the Northeast on Sunday. An associated cold front will move through the upper Ohio Valley on Sunday and off the Mid-Atlantic Coast early to mid morning on Monday. Thereafter, broad troughing will remain in the Northeast until late in the week as an expansive upper ridge envelops much of the CONUS. ...Upper-Ohio Valley Vicinity... The cold front will continue eastward on Sunday, moving through Ohio during the mid/late afternoon. Moisture return ahead of the front will be the main source of uncertainty in terms of how much severe threat there could be. Mid-level forcing will be sufficient, but low-level veering ahead of the front suggests uncertain storm coverage. A conditional threat for damaging winds exists during the late afternoon. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Potential for severe storms appears low on Saturday. ...Synopsis... A potent upper-level shortwave trough will make quick progress across the northern Plains and move into the upper Mississippi Valley by early evening. A deep surface cyclone within the Canadian Prairie will move east along with its parent upper-level system. Attendant to this cyclone, a cold front will quickly through Minnesota, Wisconsin, and eventually much of Michigan by early Sunday morning. ...Upper-Mississippi Valley Vicinity... Ahead of the cold front, some moisture return is expected to occur. However, this moisture return will have no connection to the Gulf due to a previous frontal passage to near the Gulf Coast. Lack of low-level moisture will likely preclude any potential for surface-based storms. By early evening, strong mid-level ascent, linear frontal forcing, and 850 mb warm air advection should promote scattered storm development from the Mississippi Valley into parts of Wisconsin. Deep-layer winds will be strong, but effective shear will only be marginal given the elevated nature of the convection. 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE could support some stronger updrafts that could produce small hail. The marginal effective shear and messy storm modes should preclude any greater risk. ..Wendt.. 10/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Potential for severe storms appears low on Saturday. ...Synopsis... A potent upper-level shortwave trough will make quick progress across the northern Plains and move into the upper Mississippi Valley by early evening. A deep surface cyclone within the Canadian Prairie will move east along with its parent upper-level system. Attendant to this cyclone, a cold front will quickly through Minnesota, Wisconsin, and eventually much of Michigan by early Sunday morning. ...Upper-Mississippi Valley Vicinity... Ahead of the cold front, some moisture return is expected to occur. However, this moisture return will have no connection to the Gulf due to a previous frontal passage to near the Gulf Coast. Lack of low-level moisture will likely preclude any potential for surface-based storms. By early evening, strong mid-level ascent, linear frontal forcing, and 850 mb warm air advection should promote scattered storm development from the Mississippi Valley into parts of Wisconsin. Deep-layer winds will be strong, but effective shear will only be marginal given the elevated nature of the convection. 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE could support some stronger updrafts that could produce small hail. The marginal effective shear and messy storm modes should preclude any greater risk. ..Wendt.. 10/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Potential for severe storms appears low on Saturday. ...Synopsis... A potent upper-level shortwave trough will make quick progress across the northern Plains and move into the upper Mississippi Valley by early evening. A deep surface cyclone within the Canadian Prairie will move east along with its parent upper-level system. Attendant to this cyclone, a cold front will quickly through Minnesota, Wisconsin, and eventually much of Michigan by early Sunday morning. ...Upper-Mississippi Valley Vicinity... Ahead of the cold front, some moisture return is expected to occur. However, this moisture return will have no connection to the Gulf due to a previous frontal passage to near the Gulf Coast. Lack of low-level moisture will likely preclude any potential for surface-based storms. By early evening, strong mid-level ascent, linear frontal forcing, and 850 mb warm air advection should promote scattered storm development from the Mississippi Valley into parts of Wisconsin. Deep-layer winds will be strong, but effective shear will only be marginal given the elevated nature of the convection. 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE could support some stronger updrafts that could produce small hail. The marginal effective shear and messy storm modes should preclude any greater risk. ..Wendt.. 10/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Potential for severe storms appears low on Saturday. ...Synopsis... A potent upper-level shortwave trough will make quick progress across the northern Plains and move into the upper Mississippi Valley by early evening. A deep surface cyclone within the Canadian Prairie will move east along with its parent upper-level system. Attendant to this cyclone, a cold front will quickly through Minnesota, Wisconsin, and eventually much of Michigan by early Sunday morning. ...Upper-Mississippi Valley Vicinity... Ahead of the cold front, some moisture return is expected to occur. However, this moisture return will have no connection to the Gulf due to a previous frontal passage to near the Gulf Coast. Lack of low-level moisture will likely preclude any potential for surface-based storms. By early evening, strong mid-level ascent, linear frontal forcing, and 850 mb warm air advection should promote scattered storm development from the Mississippi Valley into parts of Wisconsin. Deep-layer winds will be strong, but effective shear will only be marginal given the elevated nature of the convection. 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE could support some stronger updrafts that could produce small hail. The marginal effective shear and messy storm modes should preclude any greater risk. ..Wendt.. 10/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Potential for severe storms appears low on Saturday. ...Synopsis... A potent upper-level shortwave trough will make quick progress across the northern Plains and move into the upper Mississippi Valley by early evening. A deep surface cyclone within the Canadian Prairie will move east along with its parent upper-level system. Attendant to this cyclone, a cold front will quickly through Minnesota, Wisconsin, and eventually much of Michigan by early Sunday morning. ...Upper-Mississippi Valley Vicinity... Ahead of the cold front, some moisture return is expected to occur. However, this moisture return will have no connection to the Gulf due to a previous frontal passage to near the Gulf Coast. Lack of low-level moisture will likely preclude any potential for surface-based storms. By early evening, strong mid-level ascent, linear frontal forcing, and 850 mb warm air advection should promote scattered storm development from the Mississippi Valley into parts of Wisconsin. Deep-layer winds will be strong, but effective shear will only be marginal given the elevated nature of the convection. 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE could support some stronger updrafts that could produce small hail. The marginal effective shear and messy storm modes should preclude any greater risk. ..Wendt.. 10/03/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 AM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OREGON...NORTHERN NEVADA...FAR NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA...AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO.... ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level trough will approach and eventually overspread the Pacific Northwest on Friday. Ahead of this trough, a strong surface cyclone will develop in Alberta, which will result in a tightening surface pressure gradient across much of the Pacific Northwest and the northern Rockies. In addition, 60+ mph of mid-level flow will move across the Northwest and northern Great Basin. This stronger mid-level flow will overspread a deeply mixed airmass across southeast Oregon and northern Nevada and vicinity, which will result in even stronger winds across this region. Sustained winds of 25 to 30 mph are expected with relative humidity ranging from 15 percent to 25 percent. Given the critically dry nature of the fuels in this area, a Critical delineation was warranted. As the pressure gradient tightens across the northern Rockies and northern Plains, strong winds are expected to develop both across southern Wyoming and from the Nebraska Panhandle northward across the western Dakotas. Single-digit relative humidities are forecast across southern Wyoming with 15 to 25 percent relative humidity in the Plains. An Elevated delineation is warranted for both areas, and if winds trend stronger in Wyoming or relative humidity drier in the Plains, a Critical area may also need to be considered in these areas in later outlooks. ..Bentley.. 10/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 AM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OREGON...NORTHERN NEVADA...FAR NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA...AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO.... ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level trough will approach and eventually overspread the Pacific Northwest on Friday. Ahead of this trough, a strong surface cyclone will develop in Alberta, which will result in a tightening surface pressure gradient across much of the Pacific Northwest and the northern Rockies. In addition, 60+ mph of mid-level flow will move across the Northwest and northern Great Basin. This stronger mid-level flow will overspread a deeply mixed airmass across southeast Oregon and northern Nevada and vicinity, which will result in even stronger winds across this region. Sustained winds of 25 to 30 mph are expected with relative humidity ranging from 15 percent to 25 percent. Given the critically dry nature of the fuels in this area, a Critical delineation was warranted. As the pressure gradient tightens across the northern Rockies and northern Plains, strong winds are expected to develop both across southern Wyoming and from the Nebraska Panhandle northward across the western Dakotas. Single-digit relative humidities are forecast across southern Wyoming with 15 to 25 percent relative humidity in the Plains. An Elevated delineation is warranted for both areas, and if winds trend stronger in Wyoming or relative humidity drier in the Plains, a Critical area may also need to be considered in these areas in later outlooks. ..Bentley.. 10/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 AM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OREGON...NORTHERN NEVADA...FAR NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA...AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO.... ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level trough will approach and eventually overspread the Pacific Northwest on Friday. Ahead of this trough, a strong surface cyclone will develop in Alberta, which will result in a tightening surface pressure gradient across much of the Pacific Northwest and the northern Rockies. In addition, 60+ mph of mid-level flow will move across the Northwest and northern Great Basin. This stronger mid-level flow will overspread a deeply mixed airmass across southeast Oregon and northern Nevada and vicinity, which will result in even stronger winds across this region. Sustained winds of 25 to 30 mph are expected with relative humidity ranging from 15 percent to 25 percent. Given the critically dry nature of the fuels in this area, a Critical delineation was warranted. As the pressure gradient tightens across the northern Rockies and northern Plains, strong winds are expected to develop both across southern Wyoming and from the Nebraska Panhandle northward across the western Dakotas. Single-digit relative humidities are forecast across southern Wyoming with 15 to 25 percent relative humidity in the Plains. An Elevated delineation is warranted for both areas, and if winds trend stronger in Wyoming or relative humidity drier in the Plains, a Critical area may also need to be considered in these areas in later outlooks. ..Bentley.. 10/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 AM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OREGON...NORTHERN NEVADA...FAR NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA...AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO.... ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level trough will approach and eventually overspread the Pacific Northwest on Friday. Ahead of this trough, a strong surface cyclone will develop in Alberta, which will result in a tightening surface pressure gradient across much of the Pacific Northwest and the northern Rockies. In addition, 60+ mph of mid-level flow will move across the Northwest and northern Great Basin. This stronger mid-level flow will overspread a deeply mixed airmass across southeast Oregon and northern Nevada and vicinity, which will result in even stronger winds across this region. Sustained winds of 25 to 30 mph are expected with relative humidity ranging from 15 percent to 25 percent. Given the critically dry nature of the fuels in this area, a Critical delineation was warranted. As the pressure gradient tightens across the northern Rockies and northern Plains, strong winds are expected to develop both across southern Wyoming and from the Nebraska Panhandle northward across the western Dakotas. Single-digit relative humidities are forecast across southern Wyoming with 15 to 25 percent relative humidity in the Plains. An Elevated delineation is warranted for both areas, and if winds trend stronger in Wyoming or relative humidity drier in the Plains, a Critical area may also need to be considered in these areas in later outlooks. ..Bentley.. 10/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more