Severe Storms

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 AM CDT Fri Oct 04 2024 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance continues to show cyclonic flow aloft persisting over the northeast CONUS from D4/Monday into D6/Wednesday before extensive upper ridging over the western and central CONUS builds eastward and displaces the cyclone. Even with this cyclonic flow persisting early next week, much of the low-level moisture will likely be off the Northeast coast by early D4/Monday. Modest low-level moisture will likely linger across much of the Southeast and Gulf Coast for much of the week, with some thunderstorm threat persisting, predominately across the FL Peninsula. Dry and stable conditions are currently expected elsewhere across the CONUS as upper ridging builds eastward and the continental airmass remains in place. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 AM CDT Fri Oct 04 2024 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance continues to show cyclonic flow aloft persisting over the northeast CONUS from D4/Monday into D6/Wednesday before extensive upper ridging over the western and central CONUS builds eastward and displaces the cyclone. Even with this cyclonic flow persisting early next week, much of the low-level moisture will likely be off the Northeast coast by early D4/Monday. Modest low-level moisture will likely linger across much of the Southeast and Gulf Coast for much of the week, with some thunderstorm threat persisting, predominately across the FL Peninsula. Dry and stable conditions are currently expected elsewhere across the CONUS as upper ridging builds eastward and the continental airmass remains in place. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 AM CDT Fri Oct 04 2024 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance continues to show cyclonic flow aloft persisting over the northeast CONUS from D4/Monday into D6/Wednesday before extensive upper ridging over the western and central CONUS builds eastward and displaces the cyclone. Even with this cyclonic flow persisting early next week, much of the low-level moisture will likely be off the Northeast coast by early D4/Monday. Modest low-level moisture will likely linger across much of the Southeast and Gulf Coast for much of the week, with some thunderstorm threat persisting, predominately across the FL Peninsula. Dry and stable conditions are currently expected elsewhere across the CONUS as upper ridging builds eastward and the continental airmass remains in place. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 AM CDT Fri Oct 04 2024 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance continues to show cyclonic flow aloft persisting over the northeast CONUS from D4/Monday into D6/Wednesday before extensive upper ridging over the western and central CONUS builds eastward and displaces the cyclone. Even with this cyclonic flow persisting early next week, much of the low-level moisture will likely be off the Northeast coast by early D4/Monday. Modest low-level moisture will likely linger across much of the Southeast and Gulf Coast for much of the week, with some thunderstorm threat persisting, predominately across the FL Peninsula. Dry and stable conditions are currently expected elsewhere across the CONUS as upper ridging builds eastward and the continental airmass remains in place. Read more

MD 2129 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST IA INTO FAR NORTHEAST MO/NORTHWEST IL
Mesoscale Discussion 2129 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 AM CDT Fri Oct 04 2024 Areas affected...South-central/southeast IA into far northeast MO/northwest IL Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 040711Z - 040915Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated hail is possible overnight. DISCUSSION...Elevated convection has increased in coverage and intensity over the last 1-2 hours across parts of Iowa, within a low-level warm advection regime. Recent intensification has occurred with a cell south of Des Moines, with other semi-discrete cells noted along the southwest periphery of the ongoing convection. These storms have developed within the northern periphery of a gradually expanding elevated buoyancy plume, with MUCAPE generally around 500-1000 J/kg. Moderate west-southwesterly flow aloft is supporting effective shear of 25-35 kt for convection rooted within the 800-700 mb layer, sufficient for some storm organization. Relatively steep midlevel lapse rates and cool temperatures aloft will continue to support an isolated severe-hail threat with any stronger storms that can remain semi-discrete overnight. ..Dean/Gleason.. 10/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...EAX... LAT...LON 41319410 41749247 41839148 41729101 41309081 40589084 40369141 40669330 40709354 41319410 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CDT Fri Oct 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the middle and upper Ohio Valley as well across the Gulf Coast Sunday. Severe thunderstorms are not currently anticipated. ...Middle/Upper OH Valley... A maturing mid-latitude cyclone will likely be over northwest Ontario early Sunday morning. A pair of fast-moving, low-amplitude shortwave troughs will move through the base of this cyclone during the period, helping induce a more negative tilt while also pulling the cyclone eastward. Primary surface low associated with this system will remain occluded over Ontario throughout the period. However, a secondary triple-point low will likely be over central Ontario early Sunday, with its associated cold front extending southwestward through the Mid MS Valley. This low is forecast to push eastward across eastern Ontario during the day, with the cold front progressing eastward/southeastward as well. Some low-level moisture return is anticipated ahead of this front across the middle/upper OH Valley, although the best moisture will be confined to a narrow axis just ahead of the front. This buoyancy, coupled with increasing large-scale forcing for ascent, could contribute to enough buoyancy for thunderstorm development along and just ahead of the front. However, the quality of this moisture return and associated buoyancy remain uncertain, with the veered low-level flow ahead of the front and narrow character of the warm sector also limiting factors. Low predictability within this scenario merits precluding introducing low severe probabilities with this outlook. ...Gulf Coast into the Coastal GA and FL Peninsula... Easterly/northeasterly low-level flow will persist for another day across the northern Gulf of Mexico, as a broad area of low pressure remains in place. Showers and thunderstorms are possible within the moist airmass, but weak shear should keep storm severity low. ..Mosier.. 10/04/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CDT Fri Oct 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the middle and upper Ohio Valley as well across the Gulf Coast Sunday. Severe thunderstorms are not currently anticipated. ...Middle/Upper OH Valley... A maturing mid-latitude cyclone will likely be over northwest Ontario early Sunday morning. A pair of fast-moving, low-amplitude shortwave troughs will move through the base of this cyclone during the period, helping induce a more negative tilt while also pulling the cyclone eastward. Primary surface low associated with this system will remain occluded over Ontario throughout the period. However, a secondary triple-point low will likely be over central Ontario early Sunday, with its associated cold front extending southwestward through the Mid MS Valley. This low is forecast to push eastward across eastern Ontario during the day, with the cold front progressing eastward/southeastward as well. Some low-level moisture return is anticipated ahead of this front across the middle/upper OH Valley, although the best moisture will be confined to a narrow axis just ahead of the front. This buoyancy, coupled with increasing large-scale forcing for ascent, could contribute to enough buoyancy for thunderstorm development along and just ahead of the front. However, the quality of this moisture return and associated buoyancy remain uncertain, with the veered low-level flow ahead of the front and narrow character of the warm sector also limiting factors. Low predictability within this scenario merits precluding introducing low severe probabilities with this outlook. ...Gulf Coast into the Coastal GA and FL Peninsula... Easterly/northeasterly low-level flow will persist for another day across the northern Gulf of Mexico, as a broad area of low pressure remains in place. Showers and thunderstorms are possible within the moist airmass, but weak shear should keep storm severity low. ..Mosier.. 10/04/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CDT Fri Oct 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the middle and upper Ohio Valley as well across the Gulf Coast Sunday. Severe thunderstorms are not currently anticipated. ...Middle/Upper OH Valley... A maturing mid-latitude cyclone will likely be over northwest Ontario early Sunday morning. A pair of fast-moving, low-amplitude shortwave troughs will move through the base of this cyclone during the period, helping induce a more negative tilt while also pulling the cyclone eastward. Primary surface low associated with this system will remain occluded over Ontario throughout the period. However, a secondary triple-point low will likely be over central Ontario early Sunday, with its associated cold front extending southwestward through the Mid MS Valley. This low is forecast to push eastward across eastern Ontario during the day, with the cold front progressing eastward/southeastward as well. Some low-level moisture return is anticipated ahead of this front across the middle/upper OH Valley, although the best moisture will be confined to a narrow axis just ahead of the front. This buoyancy, coupled with increasing large-scale forcing for ascent, could contribute to enough buoyancy for thunderstorm development along and just ahead of the front. However, the quality of this moisture return and associated buoyancy remain uncertain, with the veered low-level flow ahead of the front and narrow character of the warm sector also limiting factors. Low predictability within this scenario merits precluding introducing low severe probabilities with this outlook. ...Gulf Coast into the Coastal GA and FL Peninsula... Easterly/northeasterly low-level flow will persist for another day across the northern Gulf of Mexico, as a broad area of low pressure remains in place. Showers and thunderstorms are possible within the moist airmass, but weak shear should keep storm severity low. ..Mosier.. 10/04/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CDT Fri Oct 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the middle and upper Ohio Valley as well across the Gulf Coast Sunday. Severe thunderstorms are not currently anticipated. ...Middle/Upper OH Valley... A maturing mid-latitude cyclone will likely be over northwest Ontario early Sunday morning. A pair of fast-moving, low-amplitude shortwave troughs will move through the base of this cyclone during the period, helping induce a more negative tilt while also pulling the cyclone eastward. Primary surface low associated with this system will remain occluded over Ontario throughout the period. However, a secondary triple-point low will likely be over central Ontario early Sunday, with its associated cold front extending southwestward through the Mid MS Valley. This low is forecast to push eastward across eastern Ontario during the day, with the cold front progressing eastward/southeastward as well. Some low-level moisture return is anticipated ahead of this front across the middle/upper OH Valley, although the best moisture will be confined to a narrow axis just ahead of the front. This buoyancy, coupled with increasing large-scale forcing for ascent, could contribute to enough buoyancy for thunderstorm development along and just ahead of the front. However, the quality of this moisture return and associated buoyancy remain uncertain, with the veered low-level flow ahead of the front and narrow character of the warm sector also limiting factors. Low predictability within this scenario merits precluding introducing low severe probabilities with this outlook. ...Gulf Coast into the Coastal GA and FL Peninsula... Easterly/northeasterly low-level flow will persist for another day across the northern Gulf of Mexico, as a broad area of low pressure remains in place. Showers and thunderstorms are possible within the moist airmass, but weak shear should keep storm severity low. ..Mosier.. 10/04/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CDT Fri Oct 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the middle and upper Ohio Valley as well across the Gulf Coast Sunday. Severe thunderstorms are not currently anticipated. ...Middle/Upper OH Valley... A maturing mid-latitude cyclone will likely be over northwest Ontario early Sunday morning. A pair of fast-moving, low-amplitude shortwave troughs will move through the base of this cyclone during the period, helping induce a more negative tilt while also pulling the cyclone eastward. Primary surface low associated with this system will remain occluded over Ontario throughout the period. However, a secondary triple-point low will likely be over central Ontario early Sunday, with its associated cold front extending southwestward through the Mid MS Valley. This low is forecast to push eastward across eastern Ontario during the day, with the cold front progressing eastward/southeastward as well. Some low-level moisture return is anticipated ahead of this front across the middle/upper OH Valley, although the best moisture will be confined to a narrow axis just ahead of the front. This buoyancy, coupled with increasing large-scale forcing for ascent, could contribute to enough buoyancy for thunderstorm development along and just ahead of the front. However, the quality of this moisture return and associated buoyancy remain uncertain, with the veered low-level flow ahead of the front and narrow character of the warm sector also limiting factors. Low predictability within this scenario merits precluding introducing low severe probabilities with this outlook. ...Gulf Coast into the Coastal GA and FL Peninsula... Easterly/northeasterly low-level flow will persist for another day across the northern Gulf of Mexico, as a broad area of low pressure remains in place. Showers and thunderstorms are possible within the moist airmass, but weak shear should keep storm severity low. ..Mosier.. 10/04/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CDT Fri Oct 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the middle and upper Ohio Valley as well across the Gulf Coast Sunday. Severe thunderstorms are not currently anticipated. ...Middle/Upper OH Valley... A maturing mid-latitude cyclone will likely be over northwest Ontario early Sunday morning. A pair of fast-moving, low-amplitude shortwave troughs will move through the base of this cyclone during the period, helping induce a more negative tilt while also pulling the cyclone eastward. Primary surface low associated with this system will remain occluded over Ontario throughout the period. However, a secondary triple-point low will likely be over central Ontario early Sunday, with its associated cold front extending southwestward through the Mid MS Valley. This low is forecast to push eastward across eastern Ontario during the day, with the cold front progressing eastward/southeastward as well. Some low-level moisture return is anticipated ahead of this front across the middle/upper OH Valley, although the best moisture will be confined to a narrow axis just ahead of the front. This buoyancy, coupled with increasing large-scale forcing for ascent, could contribute to enough buoyancy for thunderstorm development along and just ahead of the front. However, the quality of this moisture return and associated buoyancy remain uncertain, with the veered low-level flow ahead of the front and narrow character of the warm sector also limiting factors. Low predictability within this scenario merits precluding introducing low severe probabilities with this outlook. ...Gulf Coast into the Coastal GA and FL Peninsula... Easterly/northeasterly low-level flow will persist for another day across the northern Gulf of Mexico, as a broad area of low pressure remains in place. Showers and thunderstorms are possible within the moist airmass, but weak shear should keep storm severity low. ..Mosier.. 10/04/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 AM CDT Fri Oct 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough and associated surface lee trough will progress over the Plains states and quickly eject into the Upper Mississippi Valley tomorrow (Saturday). Strong southerly flow will precede the surface lee trough, with a strong northwesterly surface wind shift noted behind a cold front that is poised to sweep across the northern Plains tomorrow afternoon. Widespread Elevated highlights have been introduced where sustained surface winds should exceed 15 mph amid 15-25 percent RH and very dry fuels. Critical highlights are in place along the Colorado/Wyoming border into portions of the Central Plains, where 25+ mph sustained northwesterly surface winds and 15 percent RH is expected immediately behind the cold front. ..Squitieri.. 10/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 AM CDT Fri Oct 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough and associated surface lee trough will progress over the Plains states and quickly eject into the Upper Mississippi Valley tomorrow (Saturday). Strong southerly flow will precede the surface lee trough, with a strong northwesterly surface wind shift noted behind a cold front that is poised to sweep across the northern Plains tomorrow afternoon. Widespread Elevated highlights have been introduced where sustained surface winds should exceed 15 mph amid 15-25 percent RH and very dry fuels. Critical highlights are in place along the Colorado/Wyoming border into portions of the Central Plains, where 25+ mph sustained northwesterly surface winds and 15 percent RH is expected immediately behind the cold front. ..Squitieri.. 10/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 AM CDT Fri Oct 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough and associated surface lee trough will progress over the Plains states and quickly eject into the Upper Mississippi Valley tomorrow (Saturday). Strong southerly flow will precede the surface lee trough, with a strong northwesterly surface wind shift noted behind a cold front that is poised to sweep across the northern Plains tomorrow afternoon. Widespread Elevated highlights have been introduced where sustained surface winds should exceed 15 mph amid 15-25 percent RH and very dry fuels. Critical highlights are in place along the Colorado/Wyoming border into portions of the Central Plains, where 25+ mph sustained northwesterly surface winds and 15 percent RH is expected immediately behind the cold front. ..Squitieri.. 10/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 AM CDT Fri Oct 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough and associated surface lee trough will progress over the Plains states and quickly eject into the Upper Mississippi Valley tomorrow (Saturday). Strong southerly flow will precede the surface lee trough, with a strong northwesterly surface wind shift noted behind a cold front that is poised to sweep across the northern Plains tomorrow afternoon. Widespread Elevated highlights have been introduced where sustained surface winds should exceed 15 mph amid 15-25 percent RH and very dry fuels. Critical highlights are in place along the Colorado/Wyoming border into portions of the Central Plains, where 25+ mph sustained northwesterly surface winds and 15 percent RH is expected immediately behind the cold front. ..Squitieri.. 10/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 AM CDT Fri Oct 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough and associated surface lee trough will progress over the Plains states and quickly eject into the Upper Mississippi Valley tomorrow (Saturday). Strong southerly flow will precede the surface lee trough, with a strong northwesterly surface wind shift noted behind a cold front that is poised to sweep across the northern Plains tomorrow afternoon. Widespread Elevated highlights have been introduced where sustained surface winds should exceed 15 mph amid 15-25 percent RH and very dry fuels. Critical highlights are in place along the Colorado/Wyoming border into portions of the Central Plains, where 25+ mph sustained northwesterly surface winds and 15 percent RH is expected immediately behind the cold front. ..Squitieri.. 10/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 AM CDT Fri Oct 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough and associated surface lee trough will progress over the Plains states and quickly eject into the Upper Mississippi Valley tomorrow (Saturday). Strong southerly flow will precede the surface lee trough, with a strong northwesterly surface wind shift noted behind a cold front that is poised to sweep across the northern Plains tomorrow afternoon. Widespread Elevated highlights have been introduced where sustained surface winds should exceed 15 mph amid 15-25 percent RH and very dry fuels. Critical highlights are in place along the Colorado/Wyoming border into portions of the Central Plains, where 25+ mph sustained northwesterly surface winds and 15 percent RH is expected immediately behind the cold front. ..Squitieri.. 10/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 AM CDT Fri Oct 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough and associated surface lee trough will progress over the Plains states and quickly eject into the Upper Mississippi Valley tomorrow (Saturday). Strong southerly flow will precede the surface lee trough, with a strong northwesterly surface wind shift noted behind a cold front that is poised to sweep across the northern Plains tomorrow afternoon. Widespread Elevated highlights have been introduced where sustained surface winds should exceed 15 mph amid 15-25 percent RH and very dry fuels. Critical highlights are in place along the Colorado/Wyoming border into portions of the Central Plains, where 25+ mph sustained northwesterly surface winds and 15 percent RH is expected immediately behind the cold front. ..Squitieri.. 10/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 AM CDT Fri Oct 04 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE HARNEY BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL WYOMING... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will rapidly traverse the northwestern CONUS while supporting the development of a pronounced surface cyclone across southern Saskatchewan today. As the surface cyclone quickly translates eastward through the period, a wide corridor of strong surface gradient winds will overlap with a dry boundary layer and overspread very dry fuels across portions of the northwestern to north-central U.S. Elevated highlights are in place across the Great Basin toward the Northern Plains. Widespread 15 mph sustained westerly surface winds are expected from eastern Oregon to central Wyoming, with the wind direction shifting to more southerly across the Plains states (given surface lee troughing). RH will drop to 15 percent over portions of the Intermountain West, with RH dipping to 20-25 percent in the Northern Plains. Sustained surface wind speeds are expected to reach 20-25 mph over portions of the Harney Basin into the northern Great Basin, as well as central Wyoming by afternoon peak heating, where Critical highlights have been introduced. ..Squitieri.. 10/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 AM CDT Fri Oct 04 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE HARNEY BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL WYOMING... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will rapidly traverse the northwestern CONUS while supporting the development of a pronounced surface cyclone across southern Saskatchewan today. As the surface cyclone quickly translates eastward through the period, a wide corridor of strong surface gradient winds will overlap with a dry boundary layer and overspread very dry fuels across portions of the northwestern to north-central U.S. Elevated highlights are in place across the Great Basin toward the Northern Plains. Widespread 15 mph sustained westerly surface winds are expected from eastern Oregon to central Wyoming, with the wind direction shifting to more southerly across the Plains states (given surface lee troughing). RH will drop to 15 percent over portions of the Intermountain West, with RH dipping to 20-25 percent in the Northern Plains. Sustained surface wind speeds are expected to reach 20-25 mph over portions of the Harney Basin into the northern Great Basin, as well as central Wyoming by afternoon peak heating, where Critical highlights have been introduced. ..Squitieri.. 10/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more