Severe Storms

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 PM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. today through tonight. ...Discussion... Seasonably high moisture content will generally remain confined to where the low-level easterlies prevail, across the southwestern Atlantic through the Gulf Basin during this period. The boundary layer does remain relatively moist across much of the southeastern U.S., but this region, and most areas east of the Mississippi Valley, are forecast to remain under the influence of surface high pressure. Still, weak to modest destabilization and orographic forcing with daytime heating may contribute to some thunderstorm development today across parts of the upper Tennessee Valley and Cumberland Plateau into the Blue Ridge. Otherwise, higher thunderstorm probabilities likely will remain focused across southern portions of the Florida Peninsula and immediate northwestern through north central Gulf coastal areas. An area of thunderstorm development, largely aided by ascent associated with lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, may be ongoing at 12Z this morning across parts of southeastern Iowa and adjacent northeastern Missouri/west central Illinois. But this appears likely to gradually diminish while slowly spreading southeastward across west central/central Illinois through mid to late morning. The stronger westerlies remain confined to the northern mid-latitudes, with one rather vigorous embedded short wave trough forecast to rapidly accelerate inland of the Pacific Northwest coast and across the northern Rockies by 12Z Saturday. Models indicate that this will be accompanied by cyclogenesis to the lee of the Canadian Rockies, and strong pre- and post-frontal lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields across the northern U.S. Rockies into Great Plains. Despite rather dry initial conditions, strong mid/upper forcing for ascent may contribute to at least weak high-based convection, near or above/to the cool side of the surging cold front. While it is possible that this could coincide with strong/gusty surface conditions, forecast soundings suggest minimal potential for these gusts to be related to moist convective processes, and it still appears unlikely that this convection will be accompanied by much, if any, lightning. ..Kerr/Squitieri.. 10/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 PM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. today through tonight. ...Discussion... Seasonably high moisture content will generally remain confined to where the low-level easterlies prevail, across the southwestern Atlantic through the Gulf Basin during this period. The boundary layer does remain relatively moist across much of the southeastern U.S., but this region, and most areas east of the Mississippi Valley, are forecast to remain under the influence of surface high pressure. Still, weak to modest destabilization and orographic forcing with daytime heating may contribute to some thunderstorm development today across parts of the upper Tennessee Valley and Cumberland Plateau into the Blue Ridge. Otherwise, higher thunderstorm probabilities likely will remain focused across southern portions of the Florida Peninsula and immediate northwestern through north central Gulf coastal areas. An area of thunderstorm development, largely aided by ascent associated with lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, may be ongoing at 12Z this morning across parts of southeastern Iowa and adjacent northeastern Missouri/west central Illinois. But this appears likely to gradually diminish while slowly spreading southeastward across west central/central Illinois through mid to late morning. The stronger westerlies remain confined to the northern mid-latitudes, with one rather vigorous embedded short wave trough forecast to rapidly accelerate inland of the Pacific Northwest coast and across the northern Rockies by 12Z Saturday. Models indicate that this will be accompanied by cyclogenesis to the lee of the Canadian Rockies, and strong pre- and post-frontal lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields across the northern U.S. Rockies into Great Plains. Despite rather dry initial conditions, strong mid/upper forcing for ascent may contribute to at least weak high-based convection, near or above/to the cool side of the surging cold front. While it is possible that this could coincide with strong/gusty surface conditions, forecast soundings suggest minimal potential for these gusts to be related to moist convective processes, and it still appears unlikely that this convection will be accompanied by much, if any, lightning. ..Kerr/Squitieri.. 10/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 PM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. today through tonight. ...Discussion... Seasonably high moisture content will generally remain confined to where the low-level easterlies prevail, across the southwestern Atlantic through the Gulf Basin during this period. The boundary layer does remain relatively moist across much of the southeastern U.S., but this region, and most areas east of the Mississippi Valley, are forecast to remain under the influence of surface high pressure. Still, weak to modest destabilization and orographic forcing with daytime heating may contribute to some thunderstorm development today across parts of the upper Tennessee Valley and Cumberland Plateau into the Blue Ridge. Otherwise, higher thunderstorm probabilities likely will remain focused across southern portions of the Florida Peninsula and immediate northwestern through north central Gulf coastal areas. An area of thunderstorm development, largely aided by ascent associated with lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, may be ongoing at 12Z this morning across parts of southeastern Iowa and adjacent northeastern Missouri/west central Illinois. But this appears likely to gradually diminish while slowly spreading southeastward across west central/central Illinois through mid to late morning. The stronger westerlies remain confined to the northern mid-latitudes, with one rather vigorous embedded short wave trough forecast to rapidly accelerate inland of the Pacific Northwest coast and across the northern Rockies by 12Z Saturday. Models indicate that this will be accompanied by cyclogenesis to the lee of the Canadian Rockies, and strong pre- and post-frontal lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields across the northern U.S. Rockies into Great Plains. Despite rather dry initial conditions, strong mid/upper forcing for ascent may contribute to at least weak high-based convection, near or above/to the cool side of the surging cold front. While it is possible that this could coincide with strong/gusty surface conditions, forecast soundings suggest minimal potential for these gusts to be related to moist convective processes, and it still appears unlikely that this convection will be accompanied by much, if any, lightning. ..Kerr/Squitieri.. 10/04/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 PM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN IOWA...ADJACENT NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... An area of developing thunderstorms overnight may pose a risk for small to marginally severe hail across parts of southeastern Iowa, adjacent northeastern Missouri and west central Illinois. ...01Z Update... Within the mid-latitude westerlies, one notable short wave trough is forecast to continue digging across the northern Great Plains Red River Valley toward the upper Great Lakes region tonight. The southern periphery of the surrounding cyclonic mid/upper-level flow currently curves across southern Nebraska through the Missouri/Iowa border vicinity, where it is beginning to overspread an initially quasi-stationary frontal zone. Models suggest that this regime will become increasingly divergent late this evening into the overnight hours, contributing to increasing forcing for ascent. Lower/mid-level ascent is already increasing across Iowa and surrounding portions of the Missouri Valley/Upper Midwest, in response to warm advection. It appears that this will lead to increasing thunderstorm development by 05-07Z across parts of central/southern Iowa, where guidance indicates a corridor of modest destabilization is possible associated with weak elevated moisture return above the frontal zone. Forecast soundings indicate most unstable CAPE may increase in excess of 1000 J/kg along this corridor, in the presence of modest potential cloud-bearing layer shear. Thermodynamic profiles may include sufficiently cool mid-levels (and steep lapse rates) to support a risk for marginally severe hail (up to around 1 inch or so in diameter) in a few of the stronger storms. ..Kerr.. 10/04/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 PM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN IOWA...ADJACENT NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... An area of developing thunderstorms overnight may pose a risk for small to marginally severe hail across parts of southeastern Iowa, adjacent northeastern Missouri and west central Illinois. ...01Z Update... Within the mid-latitude westerlies, one notable short wave trough is forecast to continue digging across the northern Great Plains Red River Valley toward the upper Great Lakes region tonight. The southern periphery of the surrounding cyclonic mid/upper-level flow currently curves across southern Nebraska through the Missouri/Iowa border vicinity, where it is beginning to overspread an initially quasi-stationary frontal zone. Models suggest that this regime will become increasingly divergent late this evening into the overnight hours, contributing to increasing forcing for ascent. Lower/mid-level ascent is already increasing across Iowa and surrounding portions of the Missouri Valley/Upper Midwest, in response to warm advection. It appears that this will lead to increasing thunderstorm development by 05-07Z across parts of central/southern Iowa, where guidance indicates a corridor of modest destabilization is possible associated with weak elevated moisture return above the frontal zone. Forecast soundings indicate most unstable CAPE may increase in excess of 1000 J/kg along this corridor, in the presence of modest potential cloud-bearing layer shear. Thermodynamic profiles may include sufficiently cool mid-levels (and steep lapse rates) to support a risk for marginally severe hail (up to around 1 inch or so in diameter) in a few of the stronger storms. ..Kerr.. 10/04/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 PM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN IOWA...ADJACENT NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... An area of developing thunderstorms overnight may pose a risk for small to marginally severe hail across parts of southeastern Iowa, adjacent northeastern Missouri and west central Illinois. ...01Z Update... Within the mid-latitude westerlies, one notable short wave trough is forecast to continue digging across the northern Great Plains Red River Valley toward the upper Great Lakes region tonight. The southern periphery of the surrounding cyclonic mid/upper-level flow currently curves across southern Nebraska through the Missouri/Iowa border vicinity, where it is beginning to overspread an initially quasi-stationary frontal zone. Models suggest that this regime will become increasingly divergent late this evening into the overnight hours, contributing to increasing forcing for ascent. Lower/mid-level ascent is already increasing across Iowa and surrounding portions of the Missouri Valley/Upper Midwest, in response to warm advection. It appears that this will lead to increasing thunderstorm development by 05-07Z across parts of central/southern Iowa, where guidance indicates a corridor of modest destabilization is possible associated with weak elevated moisture return above the frontal zone. Forecast soundings indicate most unstable CAPE may increase in excess of 1000 J/kg along this corridor, in the presence of modest potential cloud-bearing layer shear. Thermodynamic profiles may include sufficiently cool mid-levels (and steep lapse rates) to support a risk for marginally severe hail (up to around 1 inch or so in diameter) in a few of the stronger storms. ..Kerr.. 10/04/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 PM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN IOWA...ADJACENT NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... An area of developing thunderstorms overnight may pose a risk for small to marginally severe hail across parts of southeastern Iowa, adjacent northeastern Missouri and west central Illinois. ...01Z Update... Within the mid-latitude westerlies, one notable short wave trough is forecast to continue digging across the northern Great Plains Red River Valley toward the upper Great Lakes region tonight. The southern periphery of the surrounding cyclonic mid/upper-level flow currently curves across southern Nebraska through the Missouri/Iowa border vicinity, where it is beginning to overspread an initially quasi-stationary frontal zone. Models suggest that this regime will become increasingly divergent late this evening into the overnight hours, contributing to increasing forcing for ascent. Lower/mid-level ascent is already increasing across Iowa and surrounding portions of the Missouri Valley/Upper Midwest, in response to warm advection. It appears that this will lead to increasing thunderstorm development by 05-07Z across parts of central/southern Iowa, where guidance indicates a corridor of modest destabilization is possible associated with weak elevated moisture return above the frontal zone. Forecast soundings indicate most unstable CAPE may increase in excess of 1000 J/kg along this corridor, in the presence of modest potential cloud-bearing layer shear. Thermodynamic profiles may include sufficiently cool mid-levels (and steep lapse rates) to support a risk for marginally severe hail (up to around 1 inch or so in diameter) in a few of the stronger storms. ..Kerr.. 10/04/2024 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Oct 3 23:30:02 UTC 2024.

No watches are valid as of Thu Oct 3 23:30:02 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0325 PM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z Fire weather concerns will continue into the weekend across portions of the Rockies and into the central Plains. Long-range guidance continues to show good agreement in the evolution and progression of an upper-level trough (currently noted in water-vapor imagery across the northeast Pacific) across the Pacific Northwest and north-central U.S. through Saturday. A dry cold front is forecast to push southeast from the northern High Plains into the central Plains and Midwest through the day Saturday evening as an attendant surface low tracks across the southern Canadian Prairies in tandem with the upper wave. Dry, windy conditions behind this front will support widespread fire weather concerns. Upper-level ridging is expected to build across the western to central CONUS in the wake of Saturday's trough, which will result in unseasonably warm and dry conditions across the western two-thirds of the country. However, weak gradient winds limit predictability of widespread fire concerns heading into next week. ...D3/Saturday - Central Rockies into the Central Plains... Forecast guidance continues to show a strong wind signal ahead of and behind Saturday's cold front. Long-range ensembles show reasonably high probability for 20-30 mph winds across southern WY and from northern NE into the Dakotas. The strongest winds will likely occur across ND under the mid-level jet max, but cooler temperatures may limit RH reductions and limit confidence in the northern extent of the fire threat. Confidence in favorable overlap of strong winds, 15-20% RH, and receptive fuels increases with southward extent with the greatest fire threat expected from southern WY into central NE and far southern SD. The fire threat may peak during the mid/late morning hours across the central High Plains within the westerly downslope flow regime ahead of the front, followed by a wind shift with slightly higher RH, but strong northerly winds. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are possible further southeast from central KS into western IA within the pre-frontal dry return regime where fuels have been slowly drying. ..Moore.. 10/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0325 PM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z Fire weather concerns will continue into the weekend across portions of the Rockies and into the central Plains. Long-range guidance continues to show good agreement in the evolution and progression of an upper-level trough (currently noted in water-vapor imagery across the northeast Pacific) across the Pacific Northwest and north-central U.S. through Saturday. A dry cold front is forecast to push southeast from the northern High Plains into the central Plains and Midwest through the day Saturday evening as an attendant surface low tracks across the southern Canadian Prairies in tandem with the upper wave. Dry, windy conditions behind this front will support widespread fire weather concerns. Upper-level ridging is expected to build across the western to central CONUS in the wake of Saturday's trough, which will result in unseasonably warm and dry conditions across the western two-thirds of the country. However, weak gradient winds limit predictability of widespread fire concerns heading into next week. ...D3/Saturday - Central Rockies into the Central Plains... Forecast guidance continues to show a strong wind signal ahead of and behind Saturday's cold front. Long-range ensembles show reasonably high probability for 20-30 mph winds across southern WY and from northern NE into the Dakotas. The strongest winds will likely occur across ND under the mid-level jet max, but cooler temperatures may limit RH reductions and limit confidence in the northern extent of the fire threat. Confidence in favorable overlap of strong winds, 15-20% RH, and receptive fuels increases with southward extent with the greatest fire threat expected from southern WY into central NE and far southern SD. The fire threat may peak during the mid/late morning hours across the central High Plains within the westerly downslope flow regime ahead of the front, followed by a wind shift with slightly higher RH, but strong northerly winds. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are possible further southeast from central KS into western IA within the pre-frontal dry return regime where fuels have been slowly drying. ..Moore.. 10/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0325 PM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z Fire weather concerns will continue into the weekend across portions of the Rockies and into the central Plains. Long-range guidance continues to show good agreement in the evolution and progression of an upper-level trough (currently noted in water-vapor imagery across the northeast Pacific) across the Pacific Northwest and north-central U.S. through Saturday. A dry cold front is forecast to push southeast from the northern High Plains into the central Plains and Midwest through the day Saturday evening as an attendant surface low tracks across the southern Canadian Prairies in tandem with the upper wave. Dry, windy conditions behind this front will support widespread fire weather concerns. Upper-level ridging is expected to build across the western to central CONUS in the wake of Saturday's trough, which will result in unseasonably warm and dry conditions across the western two-thirds of the country. However, weak gradient winds limit predictability of widespread fire concerns heading into next week. ...D3/Saturday - Central Rockies into the Central Plains... Forecast guidance continues to show a strong wind signal ahead of and behind Saturday's cold front. Long-range ensembles show reasonably high probability for 20-30 mph winds across southern WY and from northern NE into the Dakotas. The strongest winds will likely occur across ND under the mid-level jet max, but cooler temperatures may limit RH reductions and limit confidence in the northern extent of the fire threat. Confidence in favorable overlap of strong winds, 15-20% RH, and receptive fuels increases with southward extent with the greatest fire threat expected from southern WY into central NE and far southern SD. The fire threat may peak during the mid/late morning hours across the central High Plains within the westerly downslope flow regime ahead of the front, followed by a wind shift with slightly higher RH, but strong northerly winds. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are possible further southeast from central KS into western IA within the pre-frontal dry return regime where fuels have been slowly drying. ..Moore.. 10/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0325 PM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z Fire weather concerns will continue into the weekend across portions of the Rockies and into the central Plains. Long-range guidance continues to show good agreement in the evolution and progression of an upper-level trough (currently noted in water-vapor imagery across the northeast Pacific) across the Pacific Northwest and north-central U.S. through Saturday. A dry cold front is forecast to push southeast from the northern High Plains into the central Plains and Midwest through the day Saturday evening as an attendant surface low tracks across the southern Canadian Prairies in tandem with the upper wave. Dry, windy conditions behind this front will support widespread fire weather concerns. Upper-level ridging is expected to build across the western to central CONUS in the wake of Saturday's trough, which will result in unseasonably warm and dry conditions across the western two-thirds of the country. However, weak gradient winds limit predictability of widespread fire concerns heading into next week. ...D3/Saturday - Central Rockies into the Central Plains... Forecast guidance continues to show a strong wind signal ahead of and behind Saturday's cold front. Long-range ensembles show reasonably high probability for 20-30 mph winds across southern WY and from northern NE into the Dakotas. The strongest winds will likely occur across ND under the mid-level jet max, but cooler temperatures may limit RH reductions and limit confidence in the northern extent of the fire threat. Confidence in favorable overlap of strong winds, 15-20% RH, and receptive fuels increases with southward extent with the greatest fire threat expected from southern WY into central NE and far southern SD. The fire threat may peak during the mid/late morning hours across the central High Plains within the westerly downslope flow regime ahead of the front, followed by a wind shift with slightly higher RH, but strong northerly winds. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are possible further southeast from central KS into western IA within the pre-frontal dry return regime where fuels have been slowly drying. ..Moore.. 10/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0325 PM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z Fire weather concerns will continue into the weekend across portions of the Rockies and into the central Plains. Long-range guidance continues to show good agreement in the evolution and progression of an upper-level trough (currently noted in water-vapor imagery across the northeast Pacific) across the Pacific Northwest and north-central U.S. through Saturday. A dry cold front is forecast to push southeast from the northern High Plains into the central Plains and Midwest through the day Saturday evening as an attendant surface low tracks across the southern Canadian Prairies in tandem with the upper wave. Dry, windy conditions behind this front will support widespread fire weather concerns. Upper-level ridging is expected to build across the western to central CONUS in the wake of Saturday's trough, which will result in unseasonably warm and dry conditions across the western two-thirds of the country. However, weak gradient winds limit predictability of widespread fire concerns heading into next week. ...D3/Saturday - Central Rockies into the Central Plains... Forecast guidance continues to show a strong wind signal ahead of and behind Saturday's cold front. Long-range ensembles show reasonably high probability for 20-30 mph winds across southern WY and from northern NE into the Dakotas. The strongest winds will likely occur across ND under the mid-level jet max, but cooler temperatures may limit RH reductions and limit confidence in the northern extent of the fire threat. Confidence in favorable overlap of strong winds, 15-20% RH, and receptive fuels increases with southward extent with the greatest fire threat expected from southern WY into central NE and far southern SD. The fire threat may peak during the mid/late morning hours across the central High Plains within the westerly downslope flow regime ahead of the front, followed by a wind shift with slightly higher RH, but strong northerly winds. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are possible further southeast from central KS into western IA within the pre-frontal dry return regime where fuels have been slowly drying. ..Moore.. 10/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0325 PM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z Fire weather concerns will continue into the weekend across portions of the Rockies and into the central Plains. Long-range guidance continues to show good agreement in the evolution and progression of an upper-level trough (currently noted in water-vapor imagery across the northeast Pacific) across the Pacific Northwest and north-central U.S. through Saturday. A dry cold front is forecast to push southeast from the northern High Plains into the central Plains and Midwest through the day Saturday evening as an attendant surface low tracks across the southern Canadian Prairies in tandem with the upper wave. Dry, windy conditions behind this front will support widespread fire weather concerns. Upper-level ridging is expected to build across the western to central CONUS in the wake of Saturday's trough, which will result in unseasonably warm and dry conditions across the western two-thirds of the country. However, weak gradient winds limit predictability of widespread fire concerns heading into next week. ...D3/Saturday - Central Rockies into the Central Plains... Forecast guidance continues to show a strong wind signal ahead of and behind Saturday's cold front. Long-range ensembles show reasonably high probability for 20-30 mph winds across southern WY and from northern NE into the Dakotas. The strongest winds will likely occur across ND under the mid-level jet max, but cooler temperatures may limit RH reductions and limit confidence in the northern extent of the fire threat. Confidence in favorable overlap of strong winds, 15-20% RH, and receptive fuels increases with southward extent with the greatest fire threat expected from southern WY into central NE and far southern SD. The fire threat may peak during the mid/late morning hours across the central High Plains within the westerly downslope flow regime ahead of the front, followed by a wind shift with slightly higher RH, but strong northerly winds. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are possible further southeast from central KS into western IA within the pre-frontal dry return regime where fuels have been slowly drying. ..Moore.. 10/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0325 PM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z Fire weather concerns will continue into the weekend across portions of the Rockies and into the central Plains. Long-range guidance continues to show good agreement in the evolution and progression of an upper-level trough (currently noted in water-vapor imagery across the northeast Pacific) across the Pacific Northwest and north-central U.S. through Saturday. A dry cold front is forecast to push southeast from the northern High Plains into the central Plains and Midwest through the day Saturday evening as an attendant surface low tracks across the southern Canadian Prairies in tandem with the upper wave. Dry, windy conditions behind this front will support widespread fire weather concerns. Upper-level ridging is expected to build across the western to central CONUS in the wake of Saturday's trough, which will result in unseasonably warm and dry conditions across the western two-thirds of the country. However, weak gradient winds limit predictability of widespread fire concerns heading into next week. ...D3/Saturday - Central Rockies into the Central Plains... Forecast guidance continues to show a strong wind signal ahead of and behind Saturday's cold front. Long-range ensembles show reasonably high probability for 20-30 mph winds across southern WY and from northern NE into the Dakotas. The strongest winds will likely occur across ND under the mid-level jet max, but cooler temperatures may limit RH reductions and limit confidence in the northern extent of the fire threat. Confidence in favorable overlap of strong winds, 15-20% RH, and receptive fuels increases with southward extent with the greatest fire threat expected from southern WY into central NE and far southern SD. The fire threat may peak during the mid/late morning hours across the central High Plains within the westerly downslope flow regime ahead of the front, followed by a wind shift with slightly higher RH, but strong northerly winds. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are possible further southeast from central KS into western IA within the pre-frontal dry return regime where fuels have been slowly drying. ..Moore.. 10/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 PM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast. However, a few strong storms are expected over parts of Iowa tonight. ...20Z Update... Scattered storms persist across the central FL Peninsula within a moist easterly flow regime south of the upper ridge. Moderate instability may support locally strong gusts within the diurnal and weakly sheared regime. To the west, a small area of strong thunderstorm potential is forecast from IA into northwest IL after 06Z, in association with a shortwave trough moving across the upper MS Valley. Lift near the 850 mb front along with steepening lapse rates may yield an elevated cluster of storms forming over south-central IA. Radar presentation of the initial activity may indicate hail in the strongest storm cores, but this may be short lived due to merging updrafts over time. While severe hail is not currently forecast, at least small hail appears likely. ..Jewell.. 10/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1123 AM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024/ ...Synopsis/Discussion... Morning surface observations depict a southwest/northeast-oriented quasi-stationary boundary extending from the central Plains into the Mid/Upper MS Valley. Within the base of a large-scale trough over the north-central CONUS, an embedded shortwave trough and related lift will overspread the boundary during the overnight/early morning hours. The associated low-level mass response will favor the east-northeastward movement of a weak frontal-wave low along the boundary -- promoting isolated to widely scattered elevated thunderstorms atop the frontal surface in the 06-12Z time frame (generally focused over eastern IA and northwest IL). Around 30-40 kt of effective shear could lead to a couple embedded cells capable of small to marginally severe hail initially, though the steeper midlevel lapse-rate plume and favorable instability should be displaced to the south of this activity -- generally limiting the severe threat. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 PM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast. However, a few strong storms are expected over parts of Iowa tonight. ...20Z Update... Scattered storms persist across the central FL Peninsula within a moist easterly flow regime south of the upper ridge. Moderate instability may support locally strong gusts within the diurnal and weakly sheared regime. To the west, a small area of strong thunderstorm potential is forecast from IA into northwest IL after 06Z, in association with a shortwave trough moving across the upper MS Valley. Lift near the 850 mb front along with steepening lapse rates may yield an elevated cluster of storms forming over south-central IA. Radar presentation of the initial activity may indicate hail in the strongest storm cores, but this may be short lived due to merging updrafts over time. While severe hail is not currently forecast, at least small hail appears likely. ..Jewell.. 10/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1123 AM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024/ ...Synopsis/Discussion... Morning surface observations depict a southwest/northeast-oriented quasi-stationary boundary extending from the central Plains into the Mid/Upper MS Valley. Within the base of a large-scale trough over the north-central CONUS, an embedded shortwave trough and related lift will overspread the boundary during the overnight/early morning hours. The associated low-level mass response will favor the east-northeastward movement of a weak frontal-wave low along the boundary -- promoting isolated to widely scattered elevated thunderstorms atop the frontal surface in the 06-12Z time frame (generally focused over eastern IA and northwest IL). Around 30-40 kt of effective shear could lead to a couple embedded cells capable of small to marginally severe hail initially, though the steeper midlevel lapse-rate plume and favorable instability should be displaced to the south of this activity -- generally limiting the severe threat. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 PM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast. However, a few strong storms are expected over parts of Iowa tonight. ...20Z Update... Scattered storms persist across the central FL Peninsula within a moist easterly flow regime south of the upper ridge. Moderate instability may support locally strong gusts within the diurnal and weakly sheared regime. To the west, a small area of strong thunderstorm potential is forecast from IA into northwest IL after 06Z, in association with a shortwave trough moving across the upper MS Valley. Lift near the 850 mb front along with steepening lapse rates may yield an elevated cluster of storms forming over south-central IA. Radar presentation of the initial activity may indicate hail in the strongest storm cores, but this may be short lived due to merging updrafts over time. While severe hail is not currently forecast, at least small hail appears likely. ..Jewell.. 10/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1123 AM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024/ ...Synopsis/Discussion... Morning surface observations depict a southwest/northeast-oriented quasi-stationary boundary extending from the central Plains into the Mid/Upper MS Valley. Within the base of a large-scale trough over the north-central CONUS, an embedded shortwave trough and related lift will overspread the boundary during the overnight/early morning hours. The associated low-level mass response will favor the east-northeastward movement of a weak frontal-wave low along the boundary -- promoting isolated to widely scattered elevated thunderstorms atop the frontal surface in the 06-12Z time frame (generally focused over eastern IA and northwest IL). Around 30-40 kt of effective shear could lead to a couple embedded cells capable of small to marginally severe hail initially, though the steeper midlevel lapse-rate plume and favorable instability should be displaced to the south of this activity -- generally limiting the severe threat. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 PM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast. However, a few strong storms are expected over parts of Iowa tonight. ...20Z Update... Scattered storms persist across the central FL Peninsula within a moist easterly flow regime south of the upper ridge. Moderate instability may support locally strong gusts within the diurnal and weakly sheared regime. To the west, a small area of strong thunderstorm potential is forecast from IA into northwest IL after 06Z, in association with a shortwave trough moving across the upper MS Valley. Lift near the 850 mb front along with steepening lapse rates may yield an elevated cluster of storms forming over south-central IA. Radar presentation of the initial activity may indicate hail in the strongest storm cores, but this may be short lived due to merging updrafts over time. While severe hail is not currently forecast, at least small hail appears likely. ..Jewell.. 10/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1123 AM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024/ ...Synopsis/Discussion... Morning surface observations depict a southwest/northeast-oriented quasi-stationary boundary extending from the central Plains into the Mid/Upper MS Valley. Within the base of a large-scale trough over the north-central CONUS, an embedded shortwave trough and related lift will overspread the boundary during the overnight/early morning hours. The associated low-level mass response will favor the east-northeastward movement of a weak frontal-wave low along the boundary -- promoting isolated to widely scattered elevated thunderstorms atop the frontal surface in the 06-12Z time frame (generally focused over eastern IA and northwest IL). Around 30-40 kt of effective shear could lead to a couple embedded cells capable of small to marginally severe hail initially, though the steeper midlevel lapse-rate plume and favorable instability should be displaced to the south of this activity -- generally limiting the severe threat. Read more