Severe Storms

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1215 AM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... Stronger flow aloft will continue to be confined to the northern tier of the CONUS on Friday. Two shortwave troughs will progress through this corridor. One will move from the upper Great Lakes into the Northeast while another will shift through the Northwest into the northern Rockies. Ridging aloft will be maintained in the southern two-thirds of the CONUS. A remnant surface boundary will be situated along the Gulf Coast. Another cold front will be draped from the Great Lakes into the central Plains. A few thunderstorms may be ongoing early Friday morning in the Mid-Mississippi Valley, as modest cooling aloft occurs on the southern flank of the passing shortwave and weak warm advection occurs with the low-level jet. Additional thunderstorms are possible with a weak northward-moving disturbance in the central/southern Appalachians as well as along the weak Gulf Coast boundary. Diurnally driven storms are likely in the Florida Peninsula. Severe thunderstorms are not expected with any of this activity. ..Wendt.. 10/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1215 AM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... Stronger flow aloft will continue to be confined to the northern tier of the CONUS on Friday. Two shortwave troughs will progress through this corridor. One will move from the upper Great Lakes into the Northeast while another will shift through the Northwest into the northern Rockies. Ridging aloft will be maintained in the southern two-thirds of the CONUS. A remnant surface boundary will be situated along the Gulf Coast. Another cold front will be draped from the Great Lakes into the central Plains. A few thunderstorms may be ongoing early Friday morning in the Mid-Mississippi Valley, as modest cooling aloft occurs on the southern flank of the passing shortwave and weak warm advection occurs with the low-level jet. Additional thunderstorms are possible with a weak northward-moving disturbance in the central/southern Appalachians as well as along the weak Gulf Coast boundary. Diurnally driven storms are likely in the Florida Peninsula. Severe thunderstorms are not expected with any of this activity. ..Wendt.. 10/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1215 AM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... Stronger flow aloft will continue to be confined to the northern tier of the CONUS on Friday. Two shortwave troughs will progress through this corridor. One will move from the upper Great Lakes into the Northeast while another will shift through the Northwest into the northern Rockies. Ridging aloft will be maintained in the southern two-thirds of the CONUS. A remnant surface boundary will be situated along the Gulf Coast. Another cold front will be draped from the Great Lakes into the central Plains. A few thunderstorms may be ongoing early Friday morning in the Mid-Mississippi Valley, as modest cooling aloft occurs on the southern flank of the passing shortwave and weak warm advection occurs with the low-level jet. Additional thunderstorms are possible with a weak northward-moving disturbance in the central/southern Appalachians as well as along the weak Gulf Coast boundary. Diurnally driven storms are likely in the Florida Peninsula. Severe thunderstorms are not expected with any of this activity. ..Wendt.. 10/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 PM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... Weak deep layer flow will persist across the southern half of the CONUS, where mean upper level ridging will remain in place. A more amplified/fast upper flow patter will develop over the northern U.S./Great Lakes vicinity. At the surface, a cold front will sag south and east across much of the Midwest. Meager boundary layer moisture ahead of the front will limit instability, but a few thunderstorms may develop overnight across IA/IL. Severe storms are not expected. Isolated thunderstorm are expected further south across the central Gulf Coast region where deeper boundary layer moisture will be in place. Sufficient instability and a weak disturbance moving northward across the Gulf into the South will support isolated to scatter thunderstorms from the central Gulf Coast into FL. Weak deep layer flow and poor lapse rates will preclude severe thunderstorm potential. ..Leitman.. 10/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 PM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... Weak deep layer flow will persist across the southern half of the CONUS, where mean upper level ridging will remain in place. A more amplified/fast upper flow patter will develop over the northern U.S./Great Lakes vicinity. At the surface, a cold front will sag south and east across much of the Midwest. Meager boundary layer moisture ahead of the front will limit instability, but a few thunderstorms may develop overnight across IA/IL. Severe storms are not expected. Isolated thunderstorm are expected further south across the central Gulf Coast region where deeper boundary layer moisture will be in place. Sufficient instability and a weak disturbance moving northward across the Gulf into the South will support isolated to scatter thunderstorms from the central Gulf Coast into FL. Weak deep layer flow and poor lapse rates will preclude severe thunderstorm potential. ..Leitman.. 10/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 PM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... Weak deep layer flow will persist across the southern half of the CONUS, where mean upper level ridging will remain in place. A more amplified/fast upper flow patter will develop over the northern U.S./Great Lakes vicinity. At the surface, a cold front will sag south and east across much of the Midwest. Meager boundary layer moisture ahead of the front will limit instability, but a few thunderstorms may develop overnight across IA/IL. Severe storms are not expected. Isolated thunderstorm are expected further south across the central Gulf Coast region where deeper boundary layer moisture will be in place. Sufficient instability and a weak disturbance moving northward across the Gulf into the South will support isolated to scatter thunderstorms from the central Gulf Coast into FL. Weak deep layer flow and poor lapse rates will preclude severe thunderstorm potential. ..Leitman.. 10/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 PM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... Weak deep layer flow will persist across the southern half of the CONUS, where mean upper level ridging will remain in place. A more amplified/fast upper flow patter will develop over the northern U.S./Great Lakes vicinity. At the surface, a cold front will sag south and east across much of the Midwest. Meager boundary layer moisture ahead of the front will limit instability, but a few thunderstorms may develop overnight across IA/IL. Severe storms are not expected. Isolated thunderstorm are expected further south across the central Gulf Coast region where deeper boundary layer moisture will be in place. Sufficient instability and a weak disturbance moving northward across the Gulf into the South will support isolated to scatter thunderstorms from the central Gulf Coast into FL. Weak deep layer flow and poor lapse rates will preclude severe thunderstorm potential. ..Leitman.. 10/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 PM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... Weak deep layer flow will persist across the southern half of the CONUS, where mean upper level ridging will remain in place. A more amplified/fast upper flow patter will develop over the northern U.S./Great Lakes vicinity. At the surface, a cold front will sag south and east across much of the Midwest. Meager boundary layer moisture ahead of the front will limit instability, but a few thunderstorms may develop overnight across IA/IL. Severe storms are not expected. Isolated thunderstorm are expected further south across the central Gulf Coast region where deeper boundary layer moisture will be in place. Sufficient instability and a weak disturbance moving northward across the Gulf into the South will support isolated to scatter thunderstorms from the central Gulf Coast into FL. Weak deep layer flow and poor lapse rates will preclude severe thunderstorm potential. ..Leitman.. 10/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 PM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024 Valid 030100Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...01z Update... Isolated thunderstorms may continue across portions of the FL Peninsula the next few hours. Weak vertical shear and poor midlevel lapse rates will preclude severe thunderstorm potential. ..Leitman.. 10/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 PM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024 Valid 030100Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...01z Update... Isolated thunderstorms may continue across portions of the FL Peninsula the next few hours. Weak vertical shear and poor midlevel lapse rates will preclude severe thunderstorm potential. ..Leitman.. 10/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 PM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024 Valid 030100Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...01z Update... Isolated thunderstorms may continue across portions of the FL Peninsula the next few hours. Weak vertical shear and poor midlevel lapse rates will preclude severe thunderstorm potential. ..Leitman.. 10/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 PM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024 Valid 030100Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...01z Update... Isolated thunderstorms may continue across portions of the FL Peninsula the next few hours. Weak vertical shear and poor midlevel lapse rates will preclude severe thunderstorm potential. ..Leitman.. 10/03/2024 Read more

No watches are valid as of Wed Oct 2 22:34:02 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Oct 2 22:34:02 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0318 PM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z Fire weather concerns will be focused across the Pacific Northwest/Great Basin into the northern Rockies and central/northern Great Plains late this week into the weekend followed by decreasing potential for widespread fire weather concerns heading into next week. Confidence continues to increase in the arrival of an upper trough (currently noted over the northeastern Pacific in water-vapor imagery) on D3/Friday across the Pacific Northwest. This feature is forecast to quickly progress east into the northern Plains with an associated surface cyclone and attendant dry cold front. These features will support strengthening winds over regions with very dry fuels with the potential for critical fire weather conditions. Unseasonably warm and dry conditions are forecast to continue across much of the southwest to central CONUS through the middle of next week as an upper ridge builds east in the wake of the Fri/Sat system. Widespread fuel drying is anticipated during this period due to the hot/dry conditions, but relatively benign surface gradient winds should limit the potential for widespread wind-driven fire concerns. ...D3/Friday... Widespread fire weather concerns are anticipated on Friday. The greatest fire weather threat is expected to emerge across northern NV into adjacent areas of CA, OR, and ID where dry downslope flow will increase through the day with the arrival of strong westerly mid-level winds. Forecast guidance continues to trend towards stronger wind speeds with subsequent model runs, with the most recent GEFS showing 50-70% probability for sustained winds of 30 mph in the lee of the northern Sierra Nevada and southern Cascades. This trend also suggests that the areal coverage of elevated to critical fire weather conditions will be greater than previously expected, warranting not only higher risk probabilities, but an expansion of the 40% risk area into portions of southwest MT in the lee of the Bitterroot Mountains. Further east, increasing westerly flow across the WY Basin should promote elevated to critical fire weather conditions within a similar, but slightly weaker, downslope regime. Across the Plains, southerly winds are expected to strengthen across NE into the Dakotas as a surface low attendant to the approaching upper wave deepens in the lee of the Canadian Rockies. Moisture recovery is expected to be minimal in the wake of today's (Wednesday's) frontal passage across the northern Plains. RH reductions within the dry return flow regime remain somewhat uncertain, but a strong wind signal among a variety of guidance suites coupled with very dry fuels (ERCs above the 90th percentile) should promote a fire weather concern. ...D4/Saturday... A dry cold front is expected to push southeast across the northern to central Plains through the day on Saturday as the upper wave and attendant surface low progress quickly into the Great Lakes region. Sustained northwesterly winds behind the front are expected to be fairly strong, most likely between 20-30 mph, with the strongest winds expected across the Dakotas. Confidence in the fire weather potential is greatest across southern WY into western NE where the driest conditions will overlap with 20+ mph winds. Confidence in critical conditions decreases with northward extent where cooler post-frontal air may limit RH reductions. Further forecast refinements are expected, but in general this synoptic regime will likely resemble the recent frontal intrusion into the Plains on Mon, Sept 30, which resulted in widespread critical fire weather conditions. ..Moore.. 10/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0318 PM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z Fire weather concerns will be focused across the Pacific Northwest/Great Basin into the northern Rockies and central/northern Great Plains late this week into the weekend followed by decreasing potential for widespread fire weather concerns heading into next week. Confidence continues to increase in the arrival of an upper trough (currently noted over the northeastern Pacific in water-vapor imagery) on D3/Friday across the Pacific Northwest. This feature is forecast to quickly progress east into the northern Plains with an associated surface cyclone and attendant dry cold front. These features will support strengthening winds over regions with very dry fuels with the potential for critical fire weather conditions. Unseasonably warm and dry conditions are forecast to continue across much of the southwest to central CONUS through the middle of next week as an upper ridge builds east in the wake of the Fri/Sat system. Widespread fuel drying is anticipated during this period due to the hot/dry conditions, but relatively benign surface gradient winds should limit the potential for widespread wind-driven fire concerns. ...D3/Friday... Widespread fire weather concerns are anticipated on Friday. The greatest fire weather threat is expected to emerge across northern NV into adjacent areas of CA, OR, and ID where dry downslope flow will increase through the day with the arrival of strong westerly mid-level winds. Forecast guidance continues to trend towards stronger wind speeds with subsequent model runs, with the most recent GEFS showing 50-70% probability for sustained winds of 30 mph in the lee of the northern Sierra Nevada and southern Cascades. This trend also suggests that the areal coverage of elevated to critical fire weather conditions will be greater than previously expected, warranting not only higher risk probabilities, but an expansion of the 40% risk area into portions of southwest MT in the lee of the Bitterroot Mountains. Further east, increasing westerly flow across the WY Basin should promote elevated to critical fire weather conditions within a similar, but slightly weaker, downslope regime. Across the Plains, southerly winds are expected to strengthen across NE into the Dakotas as a surface low attendant to the approaching upper wave deepens in the lee of the Canadian Rockies. Moisture recovery is expected to be minimal in the wake of today's (Wednesday's) frontal passage across the northern Plains. RH reductions within the dry return flow regime remain somewhat uncertain, but a strong wind signal among a variety of guidance suites coupled with very dry fuels (ERCs above the 90th percentile) should promote a fire weather concern. ...D4/Saturday... A dry cold front is expected to push southeast across the northern to central Plains through the day on Saturday as the upper wave and attendant surface low progress quickly into the Great Lakes region. Sustained northwesterly winds behind the front are expected to be fairly strong, most likely between 20-30 mph, with the strongest winds expected across the Dakotas. Confidence in the fire weather potential is greatest across southern WY into western NE where the driest conditions will overlap with 20+ mph winds. Confidence in critical conditions decreases with northward extent where cooler post-frontal air may limit RH reductions. Further forecast refinements are expected, but in general this synoptic regime will likely resemble the recent frontal intrusion into the Plains on Mon, Sept 30, which resulted in widespread critical fire weather conditions. ..Moore.. 10/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0318 PM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z Fire weather concerns will be focused across the Pacific Northwest/Great Basin into the northern Rockies and central/northern Great Plains late this week into the weekend followed by decreasing potential for widespread fire weather concerns heading into next week. Confidence continues to increase in the arrival of an upper trough (currently noted over the northeastern Pacific in water-vapor imagery) on D3/Friday across the Pacific Northwest. This feature is forecast to quickly progress east into the northern Plains with an associated surface cyclone and attendant dry cold front. These features will support strengthening winds over regions with very dry fuels with the potential for critical fire weather conditions. Unseasonably warm and dry conditions are forecast to continue across much of the southwest to central CONUS through the middle of next week as an upper ridge builds east in the wake of the Fri/Sat system. Widespread fuel drying is anticipated during this period due to the hot/dry conditions, but relatively benign surface gradient winds should limit the potential for widespread wind-driven fire concerns. ...D3/Friday... Widespread fire weather concerns are anticipated on Friday. The greatest fire weather threat is expected to emerge across northern NV into adjacent areas of CA, OR, and ID where dry downslope flow will increase through the day with the arrival of strong westerly mid-level winds. Forecast guidance continues to trend towards stronger wind speeds with subsequent model runs, with the most recent GEFS showing 50-70% probability for sustained winds of 30 mph in the lee of the northern Sierra Nevada and southern Cascades. This trend also suggests that the areal coverage of elevated to critical fire weather conditions will be greater than previously expected, warranting not only higher risk probabilities, but an expansion of the 40% risk area into portions of southwest MT in the lee of the Bitterroot Mountains. Further east, increasing westerly flow across the WY Basin should promote elevated to critical fire weather conditions within a similar, but slightly weaker, downslope regime. Across the Plains, southerly winds are expected to strengthen across NE into the Dakotas as a surface low attendant to the approaching upper wave deepens in the lee of the Canadian Rockies. Moisture recovery is expected to be minimal in the wake of today's (Wednesday's) frontal passage across the northern Plains. RH reductions within the dry return flow regime remain somewhat uncertain, but a strong wind signal among a variety of guidance suites coupled with very dry fuels (ERCs above the 90th percentile) should promote a fire weather concern. ...D4/Saturday... A dry cold front is expected to push southeast across the northern to central Plains through the day on Saturday as the upper wave and attendant surface low progress quickly into the Great Lakes region. Sustained northwesterly winds behind the front are expected to be fairly strong, most likely between 20-30 mph, with the strongest winds expected across the Dakotas. Confidence in the fire weather potential is greatest across southern WY into western NE where the driest conditions will overlap with 20+ mph winds. Confidence in critical conditions decreases with northward extent where cooler post-frontal air may limit RH reductions. Further forecast refinements are expected, but in general this synoptic regime will likely resemble the recent frontal intrusion into the Plains on Mon, Sept 30, which resulted in widespread critical fire weather conditions. ..Moore.. 10/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0318 PM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z Fire weather concerns will be focused across the Pacific Northwest/Great Basin into the northern Rockies and central/northern Great Plains late this week into the weekend followed by decreasing potential for widespread fire weather concerns heading into next week. Confidence continues to increase in the arrival of an upper trough (currently noted over the northeastern Pacific in water-vapor imagery) on D3/Friday across the Pacific Northwest. This feature is forecast to quickly progress east into the northern Plains with an associated surface cyclone and attendant dry cold front. These features will support strengthening winds over regions with very dry fuels with the potential for critical fire weather conditions. Unseasonably warm and dry conditions are forecast to continue across much of the southwest to central CONUS through the middle of next week as an upper ridge builds east in the wake of the Fri/Sat system. Widespread fuel drying is anticipated during this period due to the hot/dry conditions, but relatively benign surface gradient winds should limit the potential for widespread wind-driven fire concerns. ...D3/Friday... Widespread fire weather concerns are anticipated on Friday. The greatest fire weather threat is expected to emerge across northern NV into adjacent areas of CA, OR, and ID where dry downslope flow will increase through the day with the arrival of strong westerly mid-level winds. Forecast guidance continues to trend towards stronger wind speeds with subsequent model runs, with the most recent GEFS showing 50-70% probability for sustained winds of 30 mph in the lee of the northern Sierra Nevada and southern Cascades. This trend also suggests that the areal coverage of elevated to critical fire weather conditions will be greater than previously expected, warranting not only higher risk probabilities, but an expansion of the 40% risk area into portions of southwest MT in the lee of the Bitterroot Mountains. Further east, increasing westerly flow across the WY Basin should promote elevated to critical fire weather conditions within a similar, but slightly weaker, downslope regime. Across the Plains, southerly winds are expected to strengthen across NE into the Dakotas as a surface low attendant to the approaching upper wave deepens in the lee of the Canadian Rockies. Moisture recovery is expected to be minimal in the wake of today's (Wednesday's) frontal passage across the northern Plains. RH reductions within the dry return flow regime remain somewhat uncertain, but a strong wind signal among a variety of guidance suites coupled with very dry fuels (ERCs above the 90th percentile) should promote a fire weather concern. ...D4/Saturday... A dry cold front is expected to push southeast across the northern to central Plains through the day on Saturday as the upper wave and attendant surface low progress quickly into the Great Lakes region. Sustained northwesterly winds behind the front are expected to be fairly strong, most likely between 20-30 mph, with the strongest winds expected across the Dakotas. Confidence in the fire weather potential is greatest across southern WY into western NE where the driest conditions will overlap with 20+ mph winds. Confidence in critical conditions decreases with northward extent where cooler post-frontal air may limit RH reductions. Further forecast refinements are expected, but in general this synoptic regime will likely resemble the recent frontal intrusion into the Plains on Mon, Sept 30, which resulted in widespread critical fire weather conditions. ..Moore.. 10/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0318 PM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z Fire weather concerns will be focused across the Pacific Northwest/Great Basin into the northern Rockies and central/northern Great Plains late this week into the weekend followed by decreasing potential for widespread fire weather concerns heading into next week. Confidence continues to increase in the arrival of an upper trough (currently noted over the northeastern Pacific in water-vapor imagery) on D3/Friday across the Pacific Northwest. This feature is forecast to quickly progress east into the northern Plains with an associated surface cyclone and attendant dry cold front. These features will support strengthening winds over regions with very dry fuels with the potential for critical fire weather conditions. Unseasonably warm and dry conditions are forecast to continue across much of the southwest to central CONUS through the middle of next week as an upper ridge builds east in the wake of the Fri/Sat system. Widespread fuel drying is anticipated during this period due to the hot/dry conditions, but relatively benign surface gradient winds should limit the potential for widespread wind-driven fire concerns. ...D3/Friday... Widespread fire weather concerns are anticipated on Friday. The greatest fire weather threat is expected to emerge across northern NV into adjacent areas of CA, OR, and ID where dry downslope flow will increase through the day with the arrival of strong westerly mid-level winds. Forecast guidance continues to trend towards stronger wind speeds with subsequent model runs, with the most recent GEFS showing 50-70% probability for sustained winds of 30 mph in the lee of the northern Sierra Nevada and southern Cascades. This trend also suggests that the areal coverage of elevated to critical fire weather conditions will be greater than previously expected, warranting not only higher risk probabilities, but an expansion of the 40% risk area into portions of southwest MT in the lee of the Bitterroot Mountains. Further east, increasing westerly flow across the WY Basin should promote elevated to critical fire weather conditions within a similar, but slightly weaker, downslope regime. Across the Plains, southerly winds are expected to strengthen across NE into the Dakotas as a surface low attendant to the approaching upper wave deepens in the lee of the Canadian Rockies. Moisture recovery is expected to be minimal in the wake of today's (Wednesday's) frontal passage across the northern Plains. RH reductions within the dry return flow regime remain somewhat uncertain, but a strong wind signal among a variety of guidance suites coupled with very dry fuels (ERCs above the 90th percentile) should promote a fire weather concern. ...D4/Saturday... A dry cold front is expected to push southeast across the northern to central Plains through the day on Saturday as the upper wave and attendant surface low progress quickly into the Great Lakes region. Sustained northwesterly winds behind the front are expected to be fairly strong, most likely between 20-30 mph, with the strongest winds expected across the Dakotas. Confidence in the fire weather potential is greatest across southern WY into western NE where the driest conditions will overlap with 20+ mph winds. Confidence in critical conditions decreases with northward extent where cooler post-frontal air may limit RH reductions. Further forecast refinements are expected, but in general this synoptic regime will likely resemble the recent frontal intrusion into the Plains on Mon, Sept 30, which resulted in widespread critical fire weather conditions. ..Moore.. 10/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0318 PM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z Fire weather concerns will be focused across the Pacific Northwest/Great Basin into the northern Rockies and central/northern Great Plains late this week into the weekend followed by decreasing potential for widespread fire weather concerns heading into next week. Confidence continues to increase in the arrival of an upper trough (currently noted over the northeastern Pacific in water-vapor imagery) on D3/Friday across the Pacific Northwest. This feature is forecast to quickly progress east into the northern Plains with an associated surface cyclone and attendant dry cold front. These features will support strengthening winds over regions with very dry fuels with the potential for critical fire weather conditions. Unseasonably warm and dry conditions are forecast to continue across much of the southwest to central CONUS through the middle of next week as an upper ridge builds east in the wake of the Fri/Sat system. Widespread fuel drying is anticipated during this period due to the hot/dry conditions, but relatively benign surface gradient winds should limit the potential for widespread wind-driven fire concerns. ...D3/Friday... Widespread fire weather concerns are anticipated on Friday. The greatest fire weather threat is expected to emerge across northern NV into adjacent areas of CA, OR, and ID where dry downslope flow will increase through the day with the arrival of strong westerly mid-level winds. Forecast guidance continues to trend towards stronger wind speeds with subsequent model runs, with the most recent GEFS showing 50-70% probability for sustained winds of 30 mph in the lee of the northern Sierra Nevada and southern Cascades. This trend also suggests that the areal coverage of elevated to critical fire weather conditions will be greater than previously expected, warranting not only higher risk probabilities, but an expansion of the 40% risk area into portions of southwest MT in the lee of the Bitterroot Mountains. Further east, increasing westerly flow across the WY Basin should promote elevated to critical fire weather conditions within a similar, but slightly weaker, downslope regime. Across the Plains, southerly winds are expected to strengthen across NE into the Dakotas as a surface low attendant to the approaching upper wave deepens in the lee of the Canadian Rockies. Moisture recovery is expected to be minimal in the wake of today's (Wednesday's) frontal passage across the northern Plains. RH reductions within the dry return flow regime remain somewhat uncertain, but a strong wind signal among a variety of guidance suites coupled with very dry fuels (ERCs above the 90th percentile) should promote a fire weather concern. ...D4/Saturday... A dry cold front is expected to push southeast across the northern to central Plains through the day on Saturday as the upper wave and attendant surface low progress quickly into the Great Lakes region. Sustained northwesterly winds behind the front are expected to be fairly strong, most likely between 20-30 mph, with the strongest winds expected across the Dakotas. Confidence in the fire weather potential is greatest across southern WY into western NE where the driest conditions will overlap with 20+ mph winds. Confidence in critical conditions decreases with northward extent where cooler post-frontal air may limit RH reductions. Further forecast refinements are expected, but in general this synoptic regime will likely resemble the recent frontal intrusion into the Plains on Mon, Sept 30, which resulted in widespread critical fire weather conditions. ..Moore.. 10/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more