Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING... ...Synopsis... An elongated mid-level jet will extend along the US/Canada border today. At the surface, a cold front will move through the Plains with a weak surface low developing in the central Plains tonight. Ahead of this front, some dry and breezy conditions are expected from the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle to the Upper Midwest. Fuels are moist from central Kansas southward, but north of this region, fuels have dried out and some threat for large fire exists. The greatest change to the prior Day 2 fire weather outlook was the addition of much of the northern Plains across the Dakotas and into far eastern Montana. Fuels in this region are very dry, and forecast guidance indicates 15 to 25 mph winds with 15 to 25 percent relative humidity are possible across much of this region. Elevated fire weather conditions are also expected across southern Wyoming where fuels are critically dry and sustained winds of 25 to 30 mph are expected, as mid-level flow strengthens and a deeply mixed airmass permits some of this stronger flow to reach the surface. Single-digit relative humidity is also expected across this region on this afternoon. Most of this region should experience Elevated fire-weather conditions, with some critical conditions across portions of south-central and southeast Wyoming where the Critical delineation is present. ..Bentley.. 10/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 PM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A quasi-zonal upper-level jet will be present across the northern CONUS on Thursday. Southern portions of the CONUS will experience modest upper-level ridging. At the surface, a remnant cold front will remain along the Gulf Coast with a secondary, stronger cold front moving into the central Plains and parts of the Upper Midwest. Thunderstorms are most likely to the south of the Gulf Coast boundary. Scattered storms can be expected during the afternoon in the Florida Peninsula. Towards Friday morning, a weak disturbance should promote thunderstorms from southeast Louisiana into the Florida Panhandle. An isolated storm or two is possible in northern Missouri overnight Thursday as elevated instability develops in the area. Very weak forcing will keep coverage below 10% should initiation occur. Severe weather is not expected with any activity. ..Wendt.. 10/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 PM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A quasi-zonal upper-level jet will be present across the northern CONUS on Thursday. Southern portions of the CONUS will experience modest upper-level ridging. At the surface, a remnant cold front will remain along the Gulf Coast with a secondary, stronger cold front moving into the central Plains and parts of the Upper Midwest. Thunderstorms are most likely to the south of the Gulf Coast boundary. Scattered storms can be expected during the afternoon in the Florida Peninsula. Towards Friday morning, a weak disturbance should promote thunderstorms from southeast Louisiana into the Florida Panhandle. An isolated storm or two is possible in northern Missouri overnight Thursday as elevated instability develops in the area. Very weak forcing will keep coverage below 10% should initiation occur. Severe weather is not expected with any activity. ..Wendt.. 10/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 PM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A quasi-zonal upper-level jet will be present across the northern CONUS on Thursday. Southern portions of the CONUS will experience modest upper-level ridging. At the surface, a remnant cold front will remain along the Gulf Coast with a secondary, stronger cold front moving into the central Plains and parts of the Upper Midwest. Thunderstorms are most likely to the south of the Gulf Coast boundary. Scattered storms can be expected during the afternoon in the Florida Peninsula. Towards Friday morning, a weak disturbance should promote thunderstorms from southeast Louisiana into the Florida Panhandle. An isolated storm or two is possible in northern Missouri overnight Thursday as elevated instability develops in the area. Very weak forcing will keep coverage below 10% should initiation occur. Severe weather is not expected with any activity. ..Wendt.. 10/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 PM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A quasi-zonal upper-level jet will be present across the northern CONUS on Thursday. Southern portions of the CONUS will experience modest upper-level ridging. At the surface, a remnant cold front will remain along the Gulf Coast with a secondary, stronger cold front moving into the central Plains and parts of the Upper Midwest. Thunderstorms are most likely to the south of the Gulf Coast boundary. Scattered storms can be expected during the afternoon in the Florida Peninsula. Towards Friday morning, a weak disturbance should promote thunderstorms from southeast Louisiana into the Florida Panhandle. An isolated storm or two is possible in northern Missouri overnight Thursday as elevated instability develops in the area. Very weak forcing will keep coverage below 10% should initiation occur. Severe weather is not expected with any activity. ..Wendt.. 10/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 PM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A quasi-zonal upper-level jet will be present across the northern CONUS on Thursday. Southern portions of the CONUS will experience modest upper-level ridging. At the surface, a remnant cold front will remain along the Gulf Coast with a secondary, stronger cold front moving into the central Plains and parts of the Upper Midwest. Thunderstorms are most likely to the south of the Gulf Coast boundary. Scattered storms can be expected during the afternoon in the Florida Peninsula. Towards Friday morning, a weak disturbance should promote thunderstorms from southeast Louisiana into the Florida Panhandle. An isolated storm or two is possible in northern Missouri overnight Thursday as elevated instability develops in the area. Very weak forcing will keep coverage below 10% should initiation occur. Severe weather is not expected with any activity. ..Wendt.. 10/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 PM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A relatively dry and/or stable pattern will exist across most of the CONUS today, with high pressure centered over the Great Basin and lower MO/mid MS Valleys. Strong west to northwest flow aloft will exist across the northern tier of states, around the southern periphery of a large upper-level cyclone over central Canada. The greatest chance for general thunderstorms will be relegated to the FL Peninsula, where a stalled boundary will exist. Here, mid 70s F dewpoints and daytime heating will yield around 2000 J/kg MLCAPE, and midlevel lapse rates will be poor. Shear will be weak, but outflow will likely be produced as storm coverage increases during the afternoon over the interior. ..Jewell/Bentley.. 10/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 PM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A relatively dry and/or stable pattern will exist across most of the CONUS today, with high pressure centered over the Great Basin and lower MO/mid MS Valleys. Strong west to northwest flow aloft will exist across the northern tier of states, around the southern periphery of a large upper-level cyclone over central Canada. The greatest chance for general thunderstorms will be relegated to the FL Peninsula, where a stalled boundary will exist. Here, mid 70s F dewpoints and daytime heating will yield around 2000 J/kg MLCAPE, and midlevel lapse rates will be poor. Shear will be weak, but outflow will likely be produced as storm coverage increases during the afternoon over the interior. ..Jewell/Bentley.. 10/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 PM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A relatively dry and/or stable pattern will exist across most of the CONUS today, with high pressure centered over the Great Basin and lower MO/mid MS Valleys. Strong west to northwest flow aloft will exist across the northern tier of states, around the southern periphery of a large upper-level cyclone over central Canada. The greatest chance for general thunderstorms will be relegated to the FL Peninsula, where a stalled boundary will exist. Here, mid 70s F dewpoints and daytime heating will yield around 2000 J/kg MLCAPE, and midlevel lapse rates will be poor. Shear will be weak, but outflow will likely be produced as storm coverage increases during the afternoon over the interior. ..Jewell/Bentley.. 10/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 PM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A relatively dry and/or stable pattern will exist across most of the CONUS today, with high pressure centered over the Great Basin and lower MO/mid MS Valleys. Strong west to northwest flow aloft will exist across the northern tier of states, around the southern periphery of a large upper-level cyclone over central Canada. The greatest chance for general thunderstorms will be relegated to the FL Peninsula, where a stalled boundary will exist. Here, mid 70s F dewpoints and daytime heating will yield around 2000 J/kg MLCAPE, and midlevel lapse rates will be poor. Shear will be weak, but outflow will likely be produced as storm coverage increases during the afternoon over the interior. ..Jewell/Bentley.. 10/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 PM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A relatively dry and/or stable pattern will exist across most of the CONUS today, with high pressure centered over the Great Basin and lower MO/mid MS Valleys. Strong west to northwest flow aloft will exist across the northern tier of states, around the southern periphery of a large upper-level cyclone over central Canada. The greatest chance for general thunderstorms will be relegated to the FL Peninsula, where a stalled boundary will exist. Here, mid 70s F dewpoints and daytime heating will yield around 2000 J/kg MLCAPE, and midlevel lapse rates will be poor. Shear will be weak, but outflow will likely be produced as storm coverage increases during the afternoon over the interior. ..Jewell/Bentley.. 10/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 PM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A relatively dry and/or stable pattern will exist across most of the CONUS today, with high pressure centered over the Great Basin and lower MO/mid MS Valleys. Strong west to northwest flow aloft will exist across the northern tier of states, around the southern periphery of a large upper-level cyclone over central Canada. The greatest chance for general thunderstorms will be relegated to the FL Peninsula, where a stalled boundary will exist. Here, mid 70s F dewpoints and daytime heating will yield around 2000 J/kg MLCAPE, and midlevel lapse rates will be poor. Shear will be weak, but outflow will likely be produced as storm coverage increases during the afternoon over the interior. ..Jewell/Bentley.. 10/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0726 PM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... Scattered thunderstorms persist this evening within the moist air mass over the FL Peninsula, where wind fields aloft are light. Storm coverage should gradually decrease as the air mass is overturned and boundary layer cools. Elsewhere, isolated lightning flashes cannot be ruled out in association with the upper trough moving across eastern Ontario and affecting the lower Great Lakes. Lapse rates and instability remain weak in this region. Easterly winds aloft will also carry isolated thunderstorms over far southern AZ westward along the Mexican border this evening, where they may persist in association with Gulf of CA moisture. Any marginally severe threat thus appears most likely across the international border. ..Jewell.. 10/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0726 PM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... Scattered thunderstorms persist this evening within the moist air mass over the FL Peninsula, where wind fields aloft are light. Storm coverage should gradually decrease as the air mass is overturned and boundary layer cools. Elsewhere, isolated lightning flashes cannot be ruled out in association with the upper trough moving across eastern Ontario and affecting the lower Great Lakes. Lapse rates and instability remain weak in this region. Easterly winds aloft will also carry isolated thunderstorms over far southern AZ westward along the Mexican border this evening, where they may persist in association with Gulf of CA moisture. Any marginally severe threat thus appears most likely across the international border. ..Jewell.. 10/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0726 PM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... Scattered thunderstorms persist this evening within the moist air mass over the FL Peninsula, where wind fields aloft are light. Storm coverage should gradually decrease as the air mass is overturned and boundary layer cools. Elsewhere, isolated lightning flashes cannot be ruled out in association with the upper trough moving across eastern Ontario and affecting the lower Great Lakes. Lapse rates and instability remain weak in this region. Easterly winds aloft will also carry isolated thunderstorms over far southern AZ westward along the Mexican border this evening, where they may persist in association with Gulf of CA moisture. Any marginally severe threat thus appears most likely across the international border. ..Jewell.. 10/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0726 PM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... Scattered thunderstorms persist this evening within the moist air mass over the FL Peninsula, where wind fields aloft are light. Storm coverage should gradually decrease as the air mass is overturned and boundary layer cools. Elsewhere, isolated lightning flashes cannot be ruled out in association with the upper trough moving across eastern Ontario and affecting the lower Great Lakes. Lapse rates and instability remain weak in this region. Easterly winds aloft will also carry isolated thunderstorms over far southern AZ westward along the Mexican border this evening, where they may persist in association with Gulf of CA moisture. Any marginally severe threat thus appears most likely across the international border. ..Jewell.. 10/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0726 PM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... Scattered thunderstorms persist this evening within the moist air mass over the FL Peninsula, where wind fields aloft are light. Storm coverage should gradually decrease as the air mass is overturned and boundary layer cools. Elsewhere, isolated lightning flashes cannot be ruled out in association with the upper trough moving across eastern Ontario and affecting the lower Great Lakes. Lapse rates and instability remain weak in this region. Easterly winds aloft will also carry isolated thunderstorms over far southern AZ westward along the Mexican border this evening, where they may persist in association with Gulf of CA moisture. Any marginally severe threat thus appears most likely across the international border. ..Jewell.. 10/02/2024 Read more

No watches are valid as of Tue Oct 1 23:41:02 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Oct 1 23:41:02 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 PM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to persist into the weekend across the north/northwestern CONUS with critical fire weather conditions possible. Latest forecast guidance continues to show the gradual building of an anomalously strong upper ridge over the southern/southwestern CONUS through early next week. This will maintain hot/dry conditions across much of the central and western CONUS that should continue to promote drying fuels. Additionally, this will maintain the strongest mid-level flow largely along the U.S./Canadian border. Fire weather concerns will be possible across the northern two-thirds of the country as shortwave troughs embedded within the mean flow (and their associated surface lows/cold fronts) propagate east along the international border. The most prominent of these will likely impact the Pacific Northwest into the northern Plains D4/Friday into D5/Saturday. ...D3/Friday - Northern Great Basin and southern WY... Afternoon water-vapor imagery depicts an upper disturbance along and south of the Aleutian Islands. Long-range guidance continues to show reasonably good agreement that this feature will undergo some amplification as it approaches the Pacific Northwest by Friday afternoon. The combination of surface pressure falls ahead of the upper wave and increasing westerly flow over the southern Cascades and northern Sierra Nevada will promote dry and windy conditions across northern NV into adjacent areas of CA, OR, and ID. Similarly, strengthening westerly winds across the northern Rockies will induce a dry/windy downslope regime through the WY basin. Ensemble guidance continues to show some spread regarding the exact timing of the upper wave, which will influence the overlap of the strongest mid-level winds with peak heating and precludes higher risk probabilities at this time. ...D5/Saturday - Southern WY into the central/northern Plains... A dry cold front is forecast to push southeast from the northern High Plains into the central Plains through D5/Saturday in tandem with the passage of the upper-level trough. A regime similar to yesterday (Monday) appears likely with dry conditions and only modest temperature reductions behind the front accompanied by very strong (20-30 mph) winds. With no appreciable rainfall forecast for the Plains through the weekend, fuels should remain receptive and will support the fire weather concern. Confidence in reaching critical-criteria RH reductions is highest across southern WY into adjacent parts of NE/CO, but the coverage of sub-20% RH across much of the Plains is somewhat uncertain at this range. Regardless, the overall synoptic pattern appears favorable for at least a wind-driven fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 10/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more