Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 PM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN WYOMING... An Elevated risk area has been introduced to portions of the mid-Missouri River Valley into the upper Mississippi River Valley. Latest forecast guidance has come into better agreement regarding wind speeds and RH reductions ahead of the approaching cold front. Moisture return within the dry return pattern will be minimal and should allow RH reductions well into the 20-25% range. Sustained winds between 15-25 mph should be common and will support elevated fire weather concerns. An additional Elevated risk area was considered along the SD/ND border into eastern ND within the post-frontal regime. However, deterministic and ensemble guidance shows somewhat more spread/less certainty regarding the timing of the front and the degree of post-frontal RH reductions. Trends will continue to be monitored and additional highlights may be needed. ..Moore.. 10/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... An elongated mid-level jet will extend along the US/Canada border on Wednesday. At the surface, a cold front will move through the Plains with a weak surface low developing in the central Plains Wednesday night. Ahead of this front, some dry and breezy conditions are expected from the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle to the Upper Midwest. However, the majority of this region lacks dry fuels. Therefore, no Elevated area is justified in this region. An Elevated area has been drawn similar to the prior Day3 40% outlook across southern Wyoming where fuels are critically dry. Sustained winds of 25 to 30 mph are expected, as mid-level flow strengthens and a deeply-mixed airmass permits some of this stronger flow to reach the surface. Single-digit relative humidity is also expected across this region on Wednesday afternoon. Given the upper-end critical conditions expected, a Critical area has been added within the broader Elevated, where these conditions are expected to overlap the driest fuels across southeast Wyoming. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 PM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN WYOMING... An Elevated risk area has been introduced to portions of the mid-Missouri River Valley into the upper Mississippi River Valley. Latest forecast guidance has come into better agreement regarding wind speeds and RH reductions ahead of the approaching cold front. Moisture return within the dry return pattern will be minimal and should allow RH reductions well into the 20-25% range. Sustained winds between 15-25 mph should be common and will support elevated fire weather concerns. An additional Elevated risk area was considered along the SD/ND border into eastern ND within the post-frontal regime. However, deterministic and ensemble guidance shows somewhat more spread/less certainty regarding the timing of the front and the degree of post-frontal RH reductions. Trends will continue to be monitored and additional highlights may be needed. ..Moore.. 10/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... An elongated mid-level jet will extend along the US/Canada border on Wednesday. At the surface, a cold front will move through the Plains with a weak surface low developing in the central Plains Wednesday night. Ahead of this front, some dry and breezy conditions are expected from the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle to the Upper Midwest. However, the majority of this region lacks dry fuels. Therefore, no Elevated area is justified in this region. An Elevated area has been drawn similar to the prior Day3 40% outlook across southern Wyoming where fuels are critically dry. Sustained winds of 25 to 30 mph are expected, as mid-level flow strengthens and a deeply-mixed airmass permits some of this stronger flow to reach the surface. Single-digit relative humidity is also expected across this region on Wednesday afternoon. Given the upper-end critical conditions expected, a Critical area has been added within the broader Elevated, where these conditions are expected to overlap the driest fuels across southeast Wyoming. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 AM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Discussion... Quasi-zonal flow aloft will prevail across most of the northern half of the U.S. Wednesday, while weak ridging affects the southern half of the country. A remnant cold front extending from the western Atlantic into the Gulf of Mexico will keep the moist/tropical airmass suppressed, with a dry airmass expected across the U.S. away from the Atlantic and Gulf Coast states. Thunderstorm potential will remain similarly suppressed, mainly near and south of the cold front across the Florida Peninsula. Very weak lower to middle tropospheric flow across this area precludes any appreciable severe risk. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not anticipated. ..Goss.. 10/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 AM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Discussion... Quasi-zonal flow aloft will prevail across most of the northern half of the U.S. Wednesday, while weak ridging affects the southern half of the country. A remnant cold front extending from the western Atlantic into the Gulf of Mexico will keep the moist/tropical airmass suppressed, with a dry airmass expected across the U.S. away from the Atlantic and Gulf Coast states. Thunderstorm potential will remain similarly suppressed, mainly near and south of the cold front across the Florida Peninsula. Very weak lower to middle tropospheric flow across this area precludes any appreciable severe risk. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not anticipated. ..Goss.. 10/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 AM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Discussion... Quasi-zonal flow aloft will prevail across most of the northern half of the U.S. Wednesday, while weak ridging affects the southern half of the country. A remnant cold front extending from the western Atlantic into the Gulf of Mexico will keep the moist/tropical airmass suppressed, with a dry airmass expected across the U.S. away from the Atlantic and Gulf Coast states. Thunderstorm potential will remain similarly suppressed, mainly near and south of the cold front across the Florida Peninsula. Very weak lower to middle tropospheric flow across this area precludes any appreciable severe risk. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not anticipated. ..Goss.. 10/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 AM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Discussion... Quasi-zonal flow aloft will prevail across most of the northern half of the U.S. Wednesday, while weak ridging affects the southern half of the country. A remnant cold front extending from the western Atlantic into the Gulf of Mexico will keep the moist/tropical airmass suppressed, with a dry airmass expected across the U.S. away from the Atlantic and Gulf Coast states. Thunderstorm potential will remain similarly suppressed, mainly near and south of the cold front across the Florida Peninsula. Very weak lower to middle tropospheric flow across this area precludes any appreciable severe risk. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not anticipated. ..Goss.. 10/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 AM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Discussion... Quasi-zonal flow aloft will prevail across most of the northern half of the U.S. Wednesday, while weak ridging affects the southern half of the country. A remnant cold front extending from the western Atlantic into the Gulf of Mexico will keep the moist/tropical airmass suppressed, with a dry airmass expected across the U.S. away from the Atlantic and Gulf Coast states. Thunderstorm potential will remain similarly suppressed, mainly near and south of the cold front across the Florida Peninsula. Very weak lower to middle tropospheric flow across this area precludes any appreciable severe risk. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not anticipated. ..Goss.. 10/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 AM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Discussion... Quasi-zonal flow aloft will prevail across most of the northern half of the U.S. Wednesday, while weak ridging affects the southern half of the country. A remnant cold front extending from the western Atlantic into the Gulf of Mexico will keep the moist/tropical airmass suppressed, with a dry airmass expected across the U.S. away from the Atlantic and Gulf Coast states. Thunderstorm potential will remain similarly suppressed, mainly near and south of the cold front across the Florida Peninsula. Very weak lower to middle tropospheric flow across this area precludes any appreciable severe risk. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not anticipated. ..Goss.. 10/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 AM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Discussion... Quasi-zonal flow aloft will prevail across most of the northern half of the U.S. Wednesday, while weak ridging affects the southern half of the country. A remnant cold front extending from the western Atlantic into the Gulf of Mexico will keep the moist/tropical airmass suppressed, with a dry airmass expected across the U.S. away from the Atlantic and Gulf Coast states. Thunderstorm potential will remain similarly suppressed, mainly near and south of the cold front across the Florida Peninsula. Very weak lower to middle tropospheric flow across this area precludes any appreciable severe risk. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not anticipated. ..Goss.. 10/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. Scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms will be possible over parts of the FL peninsula, and over eastern NC/southeast VA. Ample low-level moisture is present in these areas, along with strong daytime heating. However, poor mid-level lapse rates and weak wind fields below 4km will limit the intensity of storms, with no severe activity expected. Showers and a few thunderstorms will affect the central/eastern Great Lakes region today/tonight as a cold front sweeps across the area. Weak instability will preclude organized severe concerns. A few thunderstorms are expected later today over parts of southern AZ, western NM, and southern CO. While the strongest cells could produce gusty winds over southern AZ, no organized severe activity is expected. ..Hart/Weinman.. 10/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. Scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms will be possible over parts of the FL peninsula, and over eastern NC/southeast VA. Ample low-level moisture is present in these areas, along with strong daytime heating. However, poor mid-level lapse rates and weak wind fields below 4km will limit the intensity of storms, with no severe activity expected. Showers and a few thunderstorms will affect the central/eastern Great Lakes region today/tonight as a cold front sweeps across the area. Weak instability will preclude organized severe concerns. A few thunderstorms are expected later today over parts of southern AZ, western NM, and southern CO. While the strongest cells could produce gusty winds over southern AZ, no organized severe activity is expected. ..Hart/Weinman.. 10/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. Scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms will be possible over parts of the FL peninsula, and over eastern NC/southeast VA. Ample low-level moisture is present in these areas, along with strong daytime heating. However, poor mid-level lapse rates and weak wind fields below 4km will limit the intensity of storms, with no severe activity expected. Showers and a few thunderstorms will affect the central/eastern Great Lakes region today/tonight as a cold front sweeps across the area. Weak instability will preclude organized severe concerns. A few thunderstorms are expected later today over parts of southern AZ, western NM, and southern CO. While the strongest cells could produce gusty winds over southern AZ, no organized severe activity is expected. ..Hart/Weinman.. 10/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. Scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms will be possible over parts of the FL peninsula, and over eastern NC/southeast VA. Ample low-level moisture is present in these areas, along with strong daytime heating. However, poor mid-level lapse rates and weak wind fields below 4km will limit the intensity of storms, with no severe activity expected. Showers and a few thunderstorms will affect the central/eastern Great Lakes region today/tonight as a cold front sweeps across the area. Weak instability will preclude organized severe concerns. A few thunderstorms are expected later today over parts of southern AZ, western NM, and southern CO. While the strongest cells could produce gusty winds over southern AZ, no organized severe activity is expected. ..Hart/Weinman.. 10/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. Scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms will be possible over parts of the FL peninsula, and over eastern NC/southeast VA. Ample low-level moisture is present in these areas, along with strong daytime heating. However, poor mid-level lapse rates and weak wind fields below 4km will limit the intensity of storms, with no severe activity expected. Showers and a few thunderstorms will affect the central/eastern Great Lakes region today/tonight as a cold front sweeps across the area. Weak instability will preclude organized severe concerns. A few thunderstorms are expected later today over parts of southern AZ, western NM, and southern CO. While the strongest cells could produce gusty winds over southern AZ, no organized severe activity is expected. ..Hart/Weinman.. 10/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. Scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms will be possible over parts of the FL peninsula, and over eastern NC/southeast VA. Ample low-level moisture is present in these areas, along with strong daytime heating. However, poor mid-level lapse rates and weak wind fields below 4km will limit the intensity of storms, with no severe activity expected. Showers and a few thunderstorms will affect the central/eastern Great Lakes region today/tonight as a cold front sweeps across the area. Weak instability will preclude organized severe concerns. A few thunderstorms are expected later today over parts of southern AZ, western NM, and southern CO. While the strongest cells could produce gusty winds over southern AZ, no organized severe activity is expected. ..Hart/Weinman.. 10/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. Scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms will be possible over parts of the FL peninsula, and over eastern NC/southeast VA. Ample low-level moisture is present in these areas, along with strong daytime heating. However, poor mid-level lapse rates and weak wind fields below 4km will limit the intensity of storms, with no severe activity expected. Showers and a few thunderstorms will affect the central/eastern Great Lakes region today/tonight as a cold front sweeps across the area. Weak instability will preclude organized severe concerns. A few thunderstorms are expected later today over parts of southern AZ, western NM, and southern CO. While the strongest cells could produce gusty winds over southern AZ, no organized severe activity is expected. ..Hart/Weinman.. 10/01/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1022 AM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA... The previous forecast remains on track with surface observations showing strengthening winds across central MT and parts of western ND as a surface low begins to deepen across southern SK. This trend will continue as the low deepens further across the southern Canadian Prairies this afternoon. Both the Elevated and Critical risk areas were expanded eastward with this update based on recent 12 UTC guidance, which suggests the axis of stronger 925-850 mb winds (and by extension the corridor with the strongest surface gusts) may be displaced slightly further east than previously anticipated and centered over the western to central Dakotas by peak heating. The 12 UTC GGW sounding sampled these stronger winds just above the nocturnal inversion; elevated to critical fire weather conditions should begin by around 18 UTC as this inversion is mixed out. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 10/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... A strong area of high pressure will initially dominate the pattern across the western 2/3rds of the CONUS for the first half of the day today. However, by midday lee troughing will start to strengthen across Alberta. This will tighten the pressure gradient across the northern Rockies and northern High Plains and result in gusty winds across Montana, the western Dakotas, and into the Nebraska Panhandle/northeast Colorado. The greatest confidence in 20+ mph sustained winds and low relative humidity, in the vicinity of dry fuels, is across eastern Montana and western North Dakota where the Critical delineation is present. Some strong winds are also possible across north-central Montana where relative humidity is expected to be in the low 20s. However, despite conditions that will likely meet Critical criteria, fuels are not that dry across this region and thus, an Elevated area is likely sufficient for the threat. An additional area of dry and breezy conditions is present across southern Wyoming, where winds of 15 to 20 mph are possible with single digit relative humidity. Finally, quite substantial dry and breezy conditions, meeting Critical criteria, are expected across southwest New Mexico and southeast Arizona. However, fuels in this region are not dry enough to support a significant fire threat. Therefore, no Elevated or Critical areas are warranted. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1022 AM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA... The previous forecast remains on track with surface observations showing strengthening winds across central MT and parts of western ND as a surface low begins to deepen across southern SK. This trend will continue as the low deepens further across the southern Canadian Prairies this afternoon. Both the Elevated and Critical risk areas were expanded eastward with this update based on recent 12 UTC guidance, which suggests the axis of stronger 925-850 mb winds (and by extension the corridor with the strongest surface gusts) may be displaced slightly further east than previously anticipated and centered over the western to central Dakotas by peak heating. The 12 UTC GGW sounding sampled these stronger winds just above the nocturnal inversion; elevated to critical fire weather conditions should begin by around 18 UTC as this inversion is mixed out. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 10/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... A strong area of high pressure will initially dominate the pattern across the western 2/3rds of the CONUS for the first half of the day today. However, by midday lee troughing will start to strengthen across Alberta. This will tighten the pressure gradient across the northern Rockies and northern High Plains and result in gusty winds across Montana, the western Dakotas, and into the Nebraska Panhandle/northeast Colorado. The greatest confidence in 20+ mph sustained winds and low relative humidity, in the vicinity of dry fuels, is across eastern Montana and western North Dakota where the Critical delineation is present. Some strong winds are also possible across north-central Montana where relative humidity is expected to be in the low 20s. However, despite conditions that will likely meet Critical criteria, fuels are not that dry across this region and thus, an Elevated area is likely sufficient for the threat. An additional area of dry and breezy conditions is present across southern Wyoming, where winds of 15 to 20 mph are possible with single digit relative humidity. Finally, quite substantial dry and breezy conditions, meeting Critical criteria, are expected across southwest New Mexico and southeast Arizona. However, fuels in this region are not dry enough to support a significant fire threat. Therefore, no Elevated or Critical areas are warranted. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1022 AM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA... The previous forecast remains on track with surface observations showing strengthening winds across central MT and parts of western ND as a surface low begins to deepen across southern SK. This trend will continue as the low deepens further across the southern Canadian Prairies this afternoon. Both the Elevated and Critical risk areas were expanded eastward with this update based on recent 12 UTC guidance, which suggests the axis of stronger 925-850 mb winds (and by extension the corridor with the strongest surface gusts) may be displaced slightly further east than previously anticipated and centered over the western to central Dakotas by peak heating. The 12 UTC GGW sounding sampled these stronger winds just above the nocturnal inversion; elevated to critical fire weather conditions should begin by around 18 UTC as this inversion is mixed out. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 10/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... A strong area of high pressure will initially dominate the pattern across the western 2/3rds of the CONUS for the first half of the day today. However, by midday lee troughing will start to strengthen across Alberta. This will tighten the pressure gradient across the northern Rockies and northern High Plains and result in gusty winds across Montana, the western Dakotas, and into the Nebraska Panhandle/northeast Colorado. The greatest confidence in 20+ mph sustained winds and low relative humidity, in the vicinity of dry fuels, is across eastern Montana and western North Dakota where the Critical delineation is present. Some strong winds are also possible across north-central Montana where relative humidity is expected to be in the low 20s. However, despite conditions that will likely meet Critical criteria, fuels are not that dry across this region and thus, an Elevated area is likely sufficient for the threat. An additional area of dry and breezy conditions is present across southern Wyoming, where winds of 15 to 20 mph are possible with single digit relative humidity. Finally, quite substantial dry and breezy conditions, meeting Critical criteria, are expected across southwest New Mexico and southeast Arizona. However, fuels in this region are not dry enough to support a significant fire threat. Therefore, no Elevated or Critical areas are warranted. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1022 AM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA... The previous forecast remains on track with surface observations showing strengthening winds across central MT and parts of western ND as a surface low begins to deepen across southern SK. This trend will continue as the low deepens further across the southern Canadian Prairies this afternoon. Both the Elevated and Critical risk areas were expanded eastward with this update based on recent 12 UTC guidance, which suggests the axis of stronger 925-850 mb winds (and by extension the corridor with the strongest surface gusts) may be displaced slightly further east than previously anticipated and centered over the western to central Dakotas by peak heating. The 12 UTC GGW sounding sampled these stronger winds just above the nocturnal inversion; elevated to critical fire weather conditions should begin by around 18 UTC as this inversion is mixed out. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 10/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... A strong area of high pressure will initially dominate the pattern across the western 2/3rds of the CONUS for the first half of the day today. However, by midday lee troughing will start to strengthen across Alberta. This will tighten the pressure gradient across the northern Rockies and northern High Plains and result in gusty winds across Montana, the western Dakotas, and into the Nebraska Panhandle/northeast Colorado. The greatest confidence in 20+ mph sustained winds and low relative humidity, in the vicinity of dry fuels, is across eastern Montana and western North Dakota where the Critical delineation is present. Some strong winds are also possible across north-central Montana where relative humidity is expected to be in the low 20s. However, despite conditions that will likely meet Critical criteria, fuels are not that dry across this region and thus, an Elevated area is likely sufficient for the threat. An additional area of dry and breezy conditions is present across southern Wyoming, where winds of 15 to 20 mph are possible with single digit relative humidity. Finally, quite substantial dry and breezy conditions, meeting Critical criteria, are expected across southwest New Mexico and southeast Arizona. However, fuels in this region are not dry enough to support a significant fire threat. Therefore, no Elevated or Critical areas are warranted. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more