Severe Storms

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 PM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z Fire weather concerns will persist intermittently through the extended period across the western half of the CONUS. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show a general ridging pattern over the southern half of the country, which will continue to favor stronger mid/upper-level flow along the U.S./Canadian border. This regime will favor seasonal to above-normal temperatures for the Plains into the West and mostly dry conditions. Consequently, dry fuels will likely be maintained and gradually expand in coverage for many locations. Fire weather concerns will emerge as shortwave troughs embedded within the mean zonal flow (and their attendant surface lows/fronts) propagate across the northern CONUS. ...D3/Wednesday - Southern Wyoming... Strong zonal flow is expected to persist across the northern CONUS through late D3/Wednesday. This will maintain a downslope flow regime into the WY Basin with afternoon RH values forecast to reach into the teens to low 20s. Deterministic and ensemble guidance show a signal for 15-25 mph winds, and with ERCs generally near the 90th percentile, elevated to critical fire weather conditions appear likely. ...D3/Wednesday - Coastal Southern CA... Upper ridging over the Great Basin combined with a weak coastal low will promote a modest offshore flow regime across southern CA. Unseasonably hot temperatures will continue to dry fuels and maintain very dry conditions. Localized elevated fire weather conditions are possible - mainly within the higher coastal terrain - late Wednesday into early Thursday morning. ...D5/Friday - northern Great Basin... Latest water-vapor imagery reveals a broad upper trough over the central Pacific, which is forecast to reach the West Coast by D5/Friday. Stronger flow overspreading the Pacific Northwest will promote downslope winds and surface pressure falls in the lee of the Cascades/northern Sierra Nevada. While run-to-run trends continue to show some variability regarding the strength of the winds, recent European solutions, which typically under-forecast winds, align with latest GEFS wind probabilities and suggests fire weather concerns may emerge during D5/Friday afternoon. ...D6/Saturday - northern Rockies/High Plains... The upper trough that is forecast to reach the Pacific Northwest on D5/Friday is expected to migrate into the northern Plains through D6/Saturday. As this occurs, lee cyclogenesis is probable and should support strengthening low-level pressure gradient winds both ahead of and behind the primary surface trough/cold front. While some uncertainty remains regarding the degree of RH reductions across the region, very dry fuels already in place (ERCs well above the 90th percentile) combined with a strong wind signal hint that a fire concern is possible. Further adjustments/expansions into the Plains are possible as guidance continues to come into better alignment. ..Moore.. 09/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 PM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z Fire weather concerns will persist intermittently through the extended period across the western half of the CONUS. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show a general ridging pattern over the southern half of the country, which will continue to favor stronger mid/upper-level flow along the U.S./Canadian border. This regime will favor seasonal to above-normal temperatures for the Plains into the West and mostly dry conditions. Consequently, dry fuels will likely be maintained and gradually expand in coverage for many locations. Fire weather concerns will emerge as shortwave troughs embedded within the mean zonal flow (and their attendant surface lows/fronts) propagate across the northern CONUS. ...D3/Wednesday - Southern Wyoming... Strong zonal flow is expected to persist across the northern CONUS through late D3/Wednesday. This will maintain a downslope flow regime into the WY Basin with afternoon RH values forecast to reach into the teens to low 20s. Deterministic and ensemble guidance show a signal for 15-25 mph winds, and with ERCs generally near the 90th percentile, elevated to critical fire weather conditions appear likely. ...D3/Wednesday - Coastal Southern CA... Upper ridging over the Great Basin combined with a weak coastal low will promote a modest offshore flow regime across southern CA. Unseasonably hot temperatures will continue to dry fuels and maintain very dry conditions. Localized elevated fire weather conditions are possible - mainly within the higher coastal terrain - late Wednesday into early Thursday morning. ...D5/Friday - northern Great Basin... Latest water-vapor imagery reveals a broad upper trough over the central Pacific, which is forecast to reach the West Coast by D5/Friday. Stronger flow overspreading the Pacific Northwest will promote downslope winds and surface pressure falls in the lee of the Cascades/northern Sierra Nevada. While run-to-run trends continue to show some variability regarding the strength of the winds, recent European solutions, which typically under-forecast winds, align with latest GEFS wind probabilities and suggests fire weather concerns may emerge during D5/Friday afternoon. ...D6/Saturday - northern Rockies/High Plains... The upper trough that is forecast to reach the Pacific Northwest on D5/Friday is expected to migrate into the northern Plains through D6/Saturday. As this occurs, lee cyclogenesis is probable and should support strengthening low-level pressure gradient winds both ahead of and behind the primary surface trough/cold front. While some uncertainty remains regarding the degree of RH reductions across the region, very dry fuels already in place (ERCs well above the 90th percentile) combined with a strong wind signal hint that a fire concern is possible. Further adjustments/expansions into the Plains are possible as guidance continues to come into better alignment. ..Moore.. 09/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 PM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z Fire weather concerns will persist intermittently through the extended period across the western half of the CONUS. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show a general ridging pattern over the southern half of the country, which will continue to favor stronger mid/upper-level flow along the U.S./Canadian border. This regime will favor seasonal to above-normal temperatures for the Plains into the West and mostly dry conditions. Consequently, dry fuels will likely be maintained and gradually expand in coverage for many locations. Fire weather concerns will emerge as shortwave troughs embedded within the mean zonal flow (and their attendant surface lows/fronts) propagate across the northern CONUS. ...D3/Wednesday - Southern Wyoming... Strong zonal flow is expected to persist across the northern CONUS through late D3/Wednesday. This will maintain a downslope flow regime into the WY Basin with afternoon RH values forecast to reach into the teens to low 20s. Deterministic and ensemble guidance show a signal for 15-25 mph winds, and with ERCs generally near the 90th percentile, elevated to critical fire weather conditions appear likely. ...D3/Wednesday - Coastal Southern CA... Upper ridging over the Great Basin combined with a weak coastal low will promote a modest offshore flow regime across southern CA. Unseasonably hot temperatures will continue to dry fuels and maintain very dry conditions. Localized elevated fire weather conditions are possible - mainly within the higher coastal terrain - late Wednesday into early Thursday morning. ...D5/Friday - northern Great Basin... Latest water-vapor imagery reveals a broad upper trough over the central Pacific, which is forecast to reach the West Coast by D5/Friday. Stronger flow overspreading the Pacific Northwest will promote downslope winds and surface pressure falls in the lee of the Cascades/northern Sierra Nevada. While run-to-run trends continue to show some variability regarding the strength of the winds, recent European solutions, which typically under-forecast winds, align with latest GEFS wind probabilities and suggests fire weather concerns may emerge during D5/Friday afternoon. ...D6/Saturday - northern Rockies/High Plains... The upper trough that is forecast to reach the Pacific Northwest on D5/Friday is expected to migrate into the northern Plains through D6/Saturday. As this occurs, lee cyclogenesis is probable and should support strengthening low-level pressure gradient winds both ahead of and behind the primary surface trough/cold front. While some uncertainty remains regarding the degree of RH reductions across the region, very dry fuels already in place (ERCs well above the 90th percentile) combined with a strong wind signal hint that a fire concern is possible. Further adjustments/expansions into the Plains are possible as guidance continues to come into better alignment. ..Moore.. 09/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Valid 302000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to possibly severe thunderstorms may affect central/eastern North Carolina through early evening. ...20z Update... The previous outlook remains on track, with isolated strong storms possible across eastern North Carolina through early evening. No changes are needed with the 20z update. ..Leitman.. 09/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1108 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024/ ...NC... Late morning surface analysis and visible satellite imagery show a weak boundary extending across eastern NC. Strong heating will occur along and to the south of the boundary this afternoon, where dewpoints are in the mid 70s. Despite the high/increasing low level theta-e, CAPE profiles will be limited by poor mid-level lapse rates but will still be sufficient for scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Low-level winds are weak, but forecast soundings show veering in the lowest 2km near the boundary, and sufficient southwesterly flow aloft for storm-scale organization. This suggests a scenario somewhat similar to yesterday in southern VA, albeit a little more favorable. A few rotating storms are possible, with some potential for a tornado or two or locally strong wind gusts with the more organized cells. Therefore have added a narrow MRGL risk area in vicinity of the surface boundary. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Valid 302000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to possibly severe thunderstorms may affect central/eastern North Carolina through early evening. ...20z Update... The previous outlook remains on track, with isolated strong storms possible across eastern North Carolina through early evening. No changes are needed with the 20z update. ..Leitman.. 09/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1108 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024/ ...NC... Late morning surface analysis and visible satellite imagery show a weak boundary extending across eastern NC. Strong heating will occur along and to the south of the boundary this afternoon, where dewpoints are in the mid 70s. Despite the high/increasing low level theta-e, CAPE profiles will be limited by poor mid-level lapse rates but will still be sufficient for scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Low-level winds are weak, but forecast soundings show veering in the lowest 2km near the boundary, and sufficient southwesterly flow aloft for storm-scale organization. This suggests a scenario somewhat similar to yesterday in southern VA, albeit a little more favorable. A few rotating storms are possible, with some potential for a tornado or two or locally strong wind gusts with the more organized cells. Therefore have added a narrow MRGL risk area in vicinity of the surface boundary. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Valid 302000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to possibly severe thunderstorms may affect central/eastern North Carolina through early evening. ...20z Update... The previous outlook remains on track, with isolated strong storms possible across eastern North Carolina through early evening. No changes are needed with the 20z update. ..Leitman.. 09/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1108 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024/ ...NC... Late morning surface analysis and visible satellite imagery show a weak boundary extending across eastern NC. Strong heating will occur along and to the south of the boundary this afternoon, where dewpoints are in the mid 70s. Despite the high/increasing low level theta-e, CAPE profiles will be limited by poor mid-level lapse rates but will still be sufficient for scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Low-level winds are weak, but forecast soundings show veering in the lowest 2km near the boundary, and sufficient southwesterly flow aloft for storm-scale organization. This suggests a scenario somewhat similar to yesterday in southern VA, albeit a little more favorable. A few rotating storms are possible, with some potential for a tornado or two or locally strong wind gusts with the more organized cells. Therefore have added a narrow MRGL risk area in vicinity of the surface boundary. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Valid 302000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to possibly severe thunderstorms may affect central/eastern North Carolina through early evening. ...20z Update... The previous outlook remains on track, with isolated strong storms possible across eastern North Carolina through early evening. No changes are needed with the 20z update. ..Leitman.. 09/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1108 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024/ ...NC... Late morning surface analysis and visible satellite imagery show a weak boundary extending across eastern NC. Strong heating will occur along and to the south of the boundary this afternoon, where dewpoints are in the mid 70s. Despite the high/increasing low level theta-e, CAPE profiles will be limited by poor mid-level lapse rates but will still be sufficient for scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Low-level winds are weak, but forecast soundings show veering in the lowest 2km near the boundary, and sufficient southwesterly flow aloft for storm-scale organization. This suggests a scenario somewhat similar to yesterday in southern VA, albeit a little more favorable. A few rotating storms are possible, with some potential for a tornado or two or locally strong wind gusts with the more organized cells. Therefore have added a narrow MRGL risk area in vicinity of the surface boundary. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Valid 302000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to possibly severe thunderstorms may affect central/eastern North Carolina through early evening. ...20z Update... The previous outlook remains on track, with isolated strong storms possible across eastern North Carolina through early evening. No changes are needed with the 20z update. ..Leitman.. 09/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1108 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024/ ...NC... Late morning surface analysis and visible satellite imagery show a weak boundary extending across eastern NC. Strong heating will occur along and to the south of the boundary this afternoon, where dewpoints are in the mid 70s. Despite the high/increasing low level theta-e, CAPE profiles will be limited by poor mid-level lapse rates but will still be sufficient for scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Low-level winds are weak, but forecast soundings show veering in the lowest 2km near the boundary, and sufficient southwesterly flow aloft for storm-scale organization. This suggests a scenario somewhat similar to yesterday in southern VA, albeit a little more favorable. A few rotating storms are possible, with some potential for a tornado or two or locally strong wind gusts with the more organized cells. Therefore have added a narrow MRGL risk area in vicinity of the surface boundary. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Valid 302000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to possibly severe thunderstorms may affect central/eastern North Carolina through early evening. ...20z Update... The previous outlook remains on track, with isolated strong storms possible across eastern North Carolina through early evening. No changes are needed with the 20z update. ..Leitman.. 09/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1108 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024/ ...NC... Late morning surface analysis and visible satellite imagery show a weak boundary extending across eastern NC. Strong heating will occur along and to the south of the boundary this afternoon, where dewpoints are in the mid 70s. Despite the high/increasing low level theta-e, CAPE profiles will be limited by poor mid-level lapse rates but will still be sufficient for scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Low-level winds are weak, but forecast soundings show veering in the lowest 2km near the boundary, and sufficient southwesterly flow aloft for storm-scale organization. This suggests a scenario somewhat similar to yesterday in southern VA, albeit a little more favorable. A few rotating storms are possible, with some potential for a tornado or two or locally strong wind gusts with the more organized cells. Therefore have added a narrow MRGL risk area in vicinity of the surface boundary. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 PM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA... ...Northern High Plains... The primary change for this forecast update is to introduce a Critical risk area to portions of northeast MT into northwestern ND. Latest ensemble guidance shows reasonably good agreement in several hours of sustained 20-25 mph with RH reductions into the low 20s and possibly upper teens under the low-level thermal trough. Critical conditions are possible further south along the High Plains into western SD and far northwest NE, but recent high-res guidance suggests such conditions may be more localized compared to areas further north. ...southern New Mexico and Arizona... Breezy, 15-20 mph pressure gradient winds are expected across southern NM into AZ tomorrow afternoon as surface high pressure builds along the southern High Plains. Unseasonably warm temperatures will promote 15-20% RH values by late afternoon. Elevated fire weather conditions are likely, but fuel status remains somewhat uncertain with ERCs generally near the 50-60th percentile based on recent fuel analyses. ..Moore.. 09/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0117 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... On Tuesday, lee troughing will resume across Alberta, which will result in a strengthening pressure gradient and another cold front moving across the northern Rockies/northern Plains. Some dry and breezy conditions are possible ahead of and behind this cold front. Some drier/windier conditions are possible within the broader Elevated area which extends from north-central Montana to far northeast Colorado. However, confidence in where this may occur is too low at this time to add a Critical delineation. In addition, dry and breezy conditions are possible in terrain-favored regions of southern Wyoming. Fuels are also critically dry in this region and will dry further with dry and breezy conditions Monday. An Elevated area has been added to address this threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 PM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA... ...Northern High Plains... The primary change for this forecast update is to introduce a Critical risk area to portions of northeast MT into northwestern ND. Latest ensemble guidance shows reasonably good agreement in several hours of sustained 20-25 mph with RH reductions into the low 20s and possibly upper teens under the low-level thermal trough. Critical conditions are possible further south along the High Plains into western SD and far northwest NE, but recent high-res guidance suggests such conditions may be more localized compared to areas further north. ...southern New Mexico and Arizona... Breezy, 15-20 mph pressure gradient winds are expected across southern NM into AZ tomorrow afternoon as surface high pressure builds along the southern High Plains. Unseasonably warm temperatures will promote 15-20% RH values by late afternoon. Elevated fire weather conditions are likely, but fuel status remains somewhat uncertain with ERCs generally near the 50-60th percentile based on recent fuel analyses. ..Moore.. 09/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0117 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... On Tuesday, lee troughing will resume across Alberta, which will result in a strengthening pressure gradient and another cold front moving across the northern Rockies/northern Plains. Some dry and breezy conditions are possible ahead of and behind this cold front. Some drier/windier conditions are possible within the broader Elevated area which extends from north-central Montana to far northeast Colorado. However, confidence in where this may occur is too low at this time to add a Critical delineation. In addition, dry and breezy conditions are possible in terrain-favored regions of southern Wyoming. Fuels are also critically dry in this region and will dry further with dry and breezy conditions Monday. An Elevated area has been added to address this threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 PM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA... ...Northern High Plains... The primary change for this forecast update is to introduce a Critical risk area to portions of northeast MT into northwestern ND. Latest ensemble guidance shows reasonably good agreement in several hours of sustained 20-25 mph with RH reductions into the low 20s and possibly upper teens under the low-level thermal trough. Critical conditions are possible further south along the High Plains into western SD and far northwest NE, but recent high-res guidance suggests such conditions may be more localized compared to areas further north. ...southern New Mexico and Arizona... Breezy, 15-20 mph pressure gradient winds are expected across southern NM into AZ tomorrow afternoon as surface high pressure builds along the southern High Plains. Unseasonably warm temperatures will promote 15-20% RH values by late afternoon. Elevated fire weather conditions are likely, but fuel status remains somewhat uncertain with ERCs generally near the 50-60th percentile based on recent fuel analyses. ..Moore.. 09/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0117 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... On Tuesday, lee troughing will resume across Alberta, which will result in a strengthening pressure gradient and another cold front moving across the northern Rockies/northern Plains. Some dry and breezy conditions are possible ahead of and behind this cold front. Some drier/windier conditions are possible within the broader Elevated area which extends from north-central Montana to far northeast Colorado. However, confidence in where this may occur is too low at this time to add a Critical delineation. In addition, dry and breezy conditions are possible in terrain-favored regions of southern Wyoming. Fuels are also critically dry in this region and will dry further with dry and breezy conditions Monday. An Elevated area has been added to address this threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 PM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA... ...Northern High Plains... The primary change for this forecast update is to introduce a Critical risk area to portions of northeast MT into northwestern ND. Latest ensemble guidance shows reasonably good agreement in several hours of sustained 20-25 mph with RH reductions into the low 20s and possibly upper teens under the low-level thermal trough. Critical conditions are possible further south along the High Plains into western SD and far northwest NE, but recent high-res guidance suggests such conditions may be more localized compared to areas further north. ...southern New Mexico and Arizona... Breezy, 15-20 mph pressure gradient winds are expected across southern NM into AZ tomorrow afternoon as surface high pressure builds along the southern High Plains. Unseasonably warm temperatures will promote 15-20% RH values by late afternoon. Elevated fire weather conditions are likely, but fuel status remains somewhat uncertain with ERCs generally near the 50-60th percentile based on recent fuel analyses. ..Moore.. 09/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0117 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... On Tuesday, lee troughing will resume across Alberta, which will result in a strengthening pressure gradient and another cold front moving across the northern Rockies/northern Plains. Some dry and breezy conditions are possible ahead of and behind this cold front. Some drier/windier conditions are possible within the broader Elevated area which extends from north-central Montana to far northeast Colorado. However, confidence in where this may occur is too low at this time to add a Critical delineation. In addition, dry and breezy conditions are possible in terrain-favored regions of southern Wyoming. Fuels are also critically dry in this region and will dry further with dry and breezy conditions Monday. An Elevated area has been added to address this threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 PM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA... ...Northern High Plains... The primary change for this forecast update is to introduce a Critical risk area to portions of northeast MT into northwestern ND. Latest ensemble guidance shows reasonably good agreement in several hours of sustained 20-25 mph with RH reductions into the low 20s and possibly upper teens under the low-level thermal trough. Critical conditions are possible further south along the High Plains into western SD and far northwest NE, but recent high-res guidance suggests such conditions may be more localized compared to areas further north. ...southern New Mexico and Arizona... Breezy, 15-20 mph pressure gradient winds are expected across southern NM into AZ tomorrow afternoon as surface high pressure builds along the southern High Plains. Unseasonably warm temperatures will promote 15-20% RH values by late afternoon. Elevated fire weather conditions are likely, but fuel status remains somewhat uncertain with ERCs generally near the 50-60th percentile based on recent fuel analyses. ..Moore.. 09/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0117 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... On Tuesday, lee troughing will resume across Alberta, which will result in a strengthening pressure gradient and another cold front moving across the northern Rockies/northern Plains. Some dry and breezy conditions are possible ahead of and behind this cold front. Some drier/windier conditions are possible within the broader Elevated area which extends from north-central Montana to far northeast Colorado. However, confidence in where this may occur is too low at this time to add a Critical delineation. In addition, dry and breezy conditions are possible in terrain-favored regions of southern Wyoming. Fuels are also critically dry in this region and will dry further with dry and breezy conditions Monday. An Elevated area has been added to address this threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 PM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA... ...Northern High Plains... The primary change for this forecast update is to introduce a Critical risk area to portions of northeast MT into northwestern ND. Latest ensemble guidance shows reasonably good agreement in several hours of sustained 20-25 mph with RH reductions into the low 20s and possibly upper teens under the low-level thermal trough. Critical conditions are possible further south along the High Plains into western SD and far northwest NE, but recent high-res guidance suggests such conditions may be more localized compared to areas further north. ...southern New Mexico and Arizona... Breezy, 15-20 mph pressure gradient winds are expected across southern NM into AZ tomorrow afternoon as surface high pressure builds along the southern High Plains. Unseasonably warm temperatures will promote 15-20% RH values by late afternoon. Elevated fire weather conditions are likely, but fuel status remains somewhat uncertain with ERCs generally near the 50-60th percentile based on recent fuel analyses. ..Moore.. 09/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0117 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... On Tuesday, lee troughing will resume across Alberta, which will result in a strengthening pressure gradient and another cold front moving across the northern Rockies/northern Plains. Some dry and breezy conditions are possible ahead of and behind this cold front. Some drier/windier conditions are possible within the broader Elevated area which extends from north-central Montana to far northeast Colorado. However, confidence in where this may occur is too low at this time to add a Critical delineation. In addition, dry and breezy conditions are possible in terrain-favored regions of southern Wyoming. Fuels are also critically dry in this region and will dry further with dry and breezy conditions Monday. An Elevated area has been added to address this threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 2128 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 2128 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Areas affected...eastern North Carolina Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 301724Z - 301930Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into early evening across eastern North Carolina. This activity should mostly be sub-severe, but sporadic strong gusts 45-60 mph and perhaps a brief spin-up or two will be possible. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms will increase in coverage over the next couple of hours in the vicinity of a surface boundary draped across eastern NC. Temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s F amid dewpoints in the low 70s F are contributing to modest MLCAPE across the region. Poor midlevel lapse rates should largely limit updraft intensity. However, pockets of steeper low-level lapse rates and moderate vertical shear should allow for transient organized cells capable of producing gusty winds. Vertically veering low-level winds amid locally enhanced low-level shear in the vicinity of the surface boundary will be responsible for somewhat enlarged, curved hodographs. Ongoing convection has shown some signs of weak rotation, and this should continue through the afternoon. Given the moist boundary-layer, a brief spin-up or two could occur. The overall environment is expected to remain marginal, and any stronger/organized convection will be sporadic/transient, precluding watch issuance. ..Leitman/Hart.. 09/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM... LAT...LON 34407763 35047917 35367948 35987920 36327771 36257675 35787646 34797663 34407763 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 PM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A quiet mid-level pattern for thunderstorms is expected across much of the CONUS with zonal flow over the north and a series of anticyclones/ridging across the south. Stable conditions in the north should preclude thunderstorm development with embedded low-amplitude shortwave impulses. Across the south, isolated thunderstorms will remain possible over the FL Peninsula, centered on the central portion, where the sea breeze should provide sufficient lift during the afternoon. Very isolated thunderstorms are also possible within a portion of the Mogollon Rim where limited mid-level moisture remains. ..Grams.. 09/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 PM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A quiet mid-level pattern for thunderstorms is expected across much of the CONUS with zonal flow over the north and a series of anticyclones/ridging across the south. Stable conditions in the north should preclude thunderstorm development with embedded low-amplitude shortwave impulses. Across the south, isolated thunderstorms will remain possible over the FL Peninsula, centered on the central portion, where the sea breeze should provide sufficient lift during the afternoon. Very isolated thunderstorms are also possible within a portion of the Mogollon Rim where limited mid-level moisture remains. ..Grams.. 09/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 PM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A quiet mid-level pattern for thunderstorms is expected across much of the CONUS with zonal flow over the north and a series of anticyclones/ridging across the south. Stable conditions in the north should preclude thunderstorm development with embedded low-amplitude shortwave impulses. Across the south, isolated thunderstorms will remain possible over the FL Peninsula, centered on the central portion, where the sea breeze should provide sufficient lift during the afternoon. Very isolated thunderstorms are also possible within a portion of the Mogollon Rim where limited mid-level moisture remains. ..Grams.. 09/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 PM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A quiet mid-level pattern for thunderstorms is expected across much of the CONUS with zonal flow over the north and a series of anticyclones/ridging across the south. Stable conditions in the north should preclude thunderstorm development with embedded low-amplitude shortwave impulses. Across the south, isolated thunderstorms will remain possible over the FL Peninsula, centered on the central portion, where the sea breeze should provide sufficient lift during the afternoon. Very isolated thunderstorms are also possible within a portion of the Mogollon Rim where limited mid-level moisture remains. ..Grams.. 09/30/2024 Read more