Severe Storms

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 PM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to persist into the weekend across the north/northwestern CONUS with critical fire weather conditions possible. Latest forecast guidance continues to show the gradual building of an anomalously strong upper ridge over the southern/southwestern CONUS through early next week. This will maintain hot/dry conditions across much of the central and western CONUS that should continue to promote drying fuels. Additionally, this will maintain the strongest mid-level flow largely along the U.S./Canadian border. Fire weather concerns will be possible across the northern two-thirds of the country as shortwave troughs embedded within the mean flow (and their associated surface lows/cold fronts) propagate east along the international border. The most prominent of these will likely impact the Pacific Northwest into the northern Plains D4/Friday into D5/Saturday. ...D3/Friday - Northern Great Basin and southern WY... Afternoon water-vapor imagery depicts an upper disturbance along and south of the Aleutian Islands. Long-range guidance continues to show reasonably good agreement that this feature will undergo some amplification as it approaches the Pacific Northwest by Friday afternoon. The combination of surface pressure falls ahead of the upper wave and increasing westerly flow over the southern Cascades and northern Sierra Nevada will promote dry and windy conditions across northern NV into adjacent areas of CA, OR, and ID. Similarly, strengthening westerly winds across the northern Rockies will induce a dry/windy downslope regime through the WY basin. Ensemble guidance continues to show some spread regarding the exact timing of the upper wave, which will influence the overlap of the strongest mid-level winds with peak heating and precludes higher risk probabilities at this time. ...D5/Saturday - Southern WY into the central/northern Plains... A dry cold front is forecast to push southeast from the northern High Plains into the central Plains through D5/Saturday in tandem with the passage of the upper-level trough. A regime similar to yesterday (Monday) appears likely with dry conditions and only modest temperature reductions behind the front accompanied by very strong (20-30 mph) winds. With no appreciable rainfall forecast for the Plains through the weekend, fuels should remain receptive and will support the fire weather concern. Confidence in reaching critical-criteria RH reductions is highest across southern WY into adjacent parts of NE/CO, but the coverage of sub-20% RH across much of the Plains is somewhat uncertain at this range. Regardless, the overall synoptic pattern appears favorable for at least a wind-driven fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 10/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 PM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to persist into the weekend across the north/northwestern CONUS with critical fire weather conditions possible. Latest forecast guidance continues to show the gradual building of an anomalously strong upper ridge over the southern/southwestern CONUS through early next week. This will maintain hot/dry conditions across much of the central and western CONUS that should continue to promote drying fuels. Additionally, this will maintain the strongest mid-level flow largely along the U.S./Canadian border. Fire weather concerns will be possible across the northern two-thirds of the country as shortwave troughs embedded within the mean flow (and their associated surface lows/cold fronts) propagate east along the international border. The most prominent of these will likely impact the Pacific Northwest into the northern Plains D4/Friday into D5/Saturday. ...D3/Friday - Northern Great Basin and southern WY... Afternoon water-vapor imagery depicts an upper disturbance along and south of the Aleutian Islands. Long-range guidance continues to show reasonably good agreement that this feature will undergo some amplification as it approaches the Pacific Northwest by Friday afternoon. The combination of surface pressure falls ahead of the upper wave and increasing westerly flow over the southern Cascades and northern Sierra Nevada will promote dry and windy conditions across northern NV into adjacent areas of CA, OR, and ID. Similarly, strengthening westerly winds across the northern Rockies will induce a dry/windy downslope regime through the WY basin. Ensemble guidance continues to show some spread regarding the exact timing of the upper wave, which will influence the overlap of the strongest mid-level winds with peak heating and precludes higher risk probabilities at this time. ...D5/Saturday - Southern WY into the central/northern Plains... A dry cold front is forecast to push southeast from the northern High Plains into the central Plains through D5/Saturday in tandem with the passage of the upper-level trough. A regime similar to yesterday (Monday) appears likely with dry conditions and only modest temperature reductions behind the front accompanied by very strong (20-30 mph) winds. With no appreciable rainfall forecast for the Plains through the weekend, fuels should remain receptive and will support the fire weather concern. Confidence in reaching critical-criteria RH reductions is highest across southern WY into adjacent parts of NE/CO, but the coverage of sub-20% RH across much of the Plains is somewhat uncertain at this range. Regardless, the overall synoptic pattern appears favorable for at least a wind-driven fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 10/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 PM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to persist into the weekend across the north/northwestern CONUS with critical fire weather conditions possible. Latest forecast guidance continues to show the gradual building of an anomalously strong upper ridge over the southern/southwestern CONUS through early next week. This will maintain hot/dry conditions across much of the central and western CONUS that should continue to promote drying fuels. Additionally, this will maintain the strongest mid-level flow largely along the U.S./Canadian border. Fire weather concerns will be possible across the northern two-thirds of the country as shortwave troughs embedded within the mean flow (and their associated surface lows/cold fronts) propagate east along the international border. The most prominent of these will likely impact the Pacific Northwest into the northern Plains D4/Friday into D5/Saturday. ...D3/Friday - Northern Great Basin and southern WY... Afternoon water-vapor imagery depicts an upper disturbance along and south of the Aleutian Islands. Long-range guidance continues to show reasonably good agreement that this feature will undergo some amplification as it approaches the Pacific Northwest by Friday afternoon. The combination of surface pressure falls ahead of the upper wave and increasing westerly flow over the southern Cascades and northern Sierra Nevada will promote dry and windy conditions across northern NV into adjacent areas of CA, OR, and ID. Similarly, strengthening westerly winds across the northern Rockies will induce a dry/windy downslope regime through the WY basin. Ensemble guidance continues to show some spread regarding the exact timing of the upper wave, which will influence the overlap of the strongest mid-level winds with peak heating and precludes higher risk probabilities at this time. ...D5/Saturday - Southern WY into the central/northern Plains... A dry cold front is forecast to push southeast from the northern High Plains into the central Plains through D5/Saturday in tandem with the passage of the upper-level trough. A regime similar to yesterday (Monday) appears likely with dry conditions and only modest temperature reductions behind the front accompanied by very strong (20-30 mph) winds. With no appreciable rainfall forecast for the Plains through the weekend, fuels should remain receptive and will support the fire weather concern. Confidence in reaching critical-criteria RH reductions is highest across southern WY into adjacent parts of NE/CO, but the coverage of sub-20% RH across much of the Plains is somewhat uncertain at this range. Regardless, the overall synoptic pattern appears favorable for at least a wind-driven fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 10/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through the remainder of today into tonight. ...20z Update... Severe potential across the CONUS remains low. Minor trimming was done to the thunder areas across parts of FL, and the western Great Lakes where thunder is no longer expected. Otherwise, the prior forecast remains valid with no changes, see the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 10/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1115 AM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024/ Scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms will be possible over parts of the FL peninsula, and over eastern NC/southeast VA. Ample low-level moisture is present in these areas, along with strong daytime heating. However, poor mid-level lapse rates and weak wind fields below 4km will limit the intensity of storms, with no severe activity expected. Showers and a few thunderstorms will affect the central/eastern Great Lakes region today/tonight as a cold front sweeps across the area. Weak instability will preclude organized severe concerns. A few thunderstorms are expected later today over parts of southern AZ, western NM, and southern CO. While the strongest cells could produce gusty winds over southern AZ, no organized severe activity is expected. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through the remainder of today into tonight. ...20z Update... Severe potential across the CONUS remains low. Minor trimming was done to the thunder areas across parts of FL, and the western Great Lakes where thunder is no longer expected. Otherwise, the prior forecast remains valid with no changes, see the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 10/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1115 AM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024/ Scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms will be possible over parts of the FL peninsula, and over eastern NC/southeast VA. Ample low-level moisture is present in these areas, along with strong daytime heating. However, poor mid-level lapse rates and weak wind fields below 4km will limit the intensity of storms, with no severe activity expected. Showers and a few thunderstorms will affect the central/eastern Great Lakes region today/tonight as a cold front sweeps across the area. Weak instability will preclude organized severe concerns. A few thunderstorms are expected later today over parts of southern AZ, western NM, and southern CO. While the strongest cells could produce gusty winds over southern AZ, no organized severe activity is expected. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through the remainder of today into tonight. ...20z Update... Severe potential across the CONUS remains low. Minor trimming was done to the thunder areas across parts of FL, and the western Great Lakes where thunder is no longer expected. Otherwise, the prior forecast remains valid with no changes, see the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 10/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1115 AM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024/ Scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms will be possible over parts of the FL peninsula, and over eastern NC/southeast VA. Ample low-level moisture is present in these areas, along with strong daytime heating. However, poor mid-level lapse rates and weak wind fields below 4km will limit the intensity of storms, with no severe activity expected. Showers and a few thunderstorms will affect the central/eastern Great Lakes region today/tonight as a cold front sweeps across the area. Weak instability will preclude organized severe concerns. A few thunderstorms are expected later today over parts of southern AZ, western NM, and southern CO. While the strongest cells could produce gusty winds over southern AZ, no organized severe activity is expected. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through the remainder of today into tonight. ...20z Update... Severe potential across the CONUS remains low. Minor trimming was done to the thunder areas across parts of FL, and the western Great Lakes where thunder is no longer expected. Otherwise, the prior forecast remains valid with no changes, see the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 10/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1115 AM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024/ Scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms will be possible over parts of the FL peninsula, and over eastern NC/southeast VA. Ample low-level moisture is present in these areas, along with strong daytime heating. However, poor mid-level lapse rates and weak wind fields below 4km will limit the intensity of storms, with no severe activity expected. Showers and a few thunderstorms will affect the central/eastern Great Lakes region today/tonight as a cold front sweeps across the area. Weak instability will preclude organized severe concerns. A few thunderstorms are expected later today over parts of southern AZ, western NM, and southern CO. While the strongest cells could produce gusty winds over southern AZ, no organized severe activity is expected. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through the remainder of today into tonight. ...20z Update... Severe potential across the CONUS remains low. Minor trimming was done to the thunder areas across parts of FL, and the western Great Lakes where thunder is no longer expected. Otherwise, the prior forecast remains valid with no changes, see the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 10/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1115 AM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024/ Scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms will be possible over parts of the FL peninsula, and over eastern NC/southeast VA. Ample low-level moisture is present in these areas, along with strong daytime heating. However, poor mid-level lapse rates and weak wind fields below 4km will limit the intensity of storms, with no severe activity expected. Showers and a few thunderstorms will affect the central/eastern Great Lakes region today/tonight as a cold front sweeps across the area. Weak instability will preclude organized severe concerns. A few thunderstorms are expected later today over parts of southern AZ, western NM, and southern CO. While the strongest cells could produce gusty winds over southern AZ, no organized severe activity is expected. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through the remainder of today into tonight. ...20z Update... Severe potential across the CONUS remains low. Minor trimming was done to the thunder areas across parts of FL, and the western Great Lakes where thunder is no longer expected. Otherwise, the prior forecast remains valid with no changes, see the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 10/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1115 AM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024/ Scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms will be possible over parts of the FL peninsula, and over eastern NC/southeast VA. Ample low-level moisture is present in these areas, along with strong daytime heating. However, poor mid-level lapse rates and weak wind fields below 4km will limit the intensity of storms, with no severe activity expected. Showers and a few thunderstorms will affect the central/eastern Great Lakes region today/tonight as a cold front sweeps across the area. Weak instability will preclude organized severe concerns. A few thunderstorms are expected later today over parts of southern AZ, western NM, and southern CO. While the strongest cells could produce gusty winds over southern AZ, no organized severe activity is expected. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through the remainder of today into tonight. ...20z Update... Severe potential across the CONUS remains low. Minor trimming was done to the thunder areas across parts of FL, and the western Great Lakes where thunder is no longer expected. Otherwise, the prior forecast remains valid with no changes, see the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 10/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1115 AM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024/ Scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms will be possible over parts of the FL peninsula, and over eastern NC/southeast VA. Ample low-level moisture is present in these areas, along with strong daytime heating. However, poor mid-level lapse rates and weak wind fields below 4km will limit the intensity of storms, with no severe activity expected. Showers and a few thunderstorms will affect the central/eastern Great Lakes region today/tonight as a cold front sweeps across the area. Weak instability will preclude organized severe concerns. A few thunderstorms are expected later today over parts of southern AZ, western NM, and southern CO. While the strongest cells could produce gusty winds over southern AZ, no organized severe activity is expected. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Discussion... Fast, weakly cyclonic flow aloft will prevail across the northern half of the U.S. Thursday, while slack flow -- and weak ridging -- prevails over the south. Low-level moisture/instability will remain confined to the southeastern Atlantic and Gulf Coast states through the period. Showers and a few thunderstorms will again be possible across Florida, focused near diurnal/sea-breeze boundaries. Some potential for lightning will also evolve across the central Gulf Coast region, as a weak mid-level disturbance over the Gulf drifts northward. Given limited buoyancy and generally weak flow aloft, severe-weather risk will remain low. ..Goss.. 10/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Discussion... Fast, weakly cyclonic flow aloft will prevail across the northern half of the U.S. Thursday, while slack flow -- and weak ridging -- prevails over the south. Low-level moisture/instability will remain confined to the southeastern Atlantic and Gulf Coast states through the period. Showers and a few thunderstorms will again be possible across Florida, focused near diurnal/sea-breeze boundaries. Some potential for lightning will also evolve across the central Gulf Coast region, as a weak mid-level disturbance over the Gulf drifts northward. Given limited buoyancy and generally weak flow aloft, severe-weather risk will remain low. ..Goss.. 10/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Discussion... Fast, weakly cyclonic flow aloft will prevail across the northern half of the U.S. Thursday, while slack flow -- and weak ridging -- prevails over the south. Low-level moisture/instability will remain confined to the southeastern Atlantic and Gulf Coast states through the period. Showers and a few thunderstorms will again be possible across Florida, focused near diurnal/sea-breeze boundaries. Some potential for lightning will also evolve across the central Gulf Coast region, as a weak mid-level disturbance over the Gulf drifts northward. Given limited buoyancy and generally weak flow aloft, severe-weather risk will remain low. ..Goss.. 10/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Discussion... Fast, weakly cyclonic flow aloft will prevail across the northern half of the U.S. Thursday, while slack flow -- and weak ridging -- prevails over the south. Low-level moisture/instability will remain confined to the southeastern Atlantic and Gulf Coast states through the period. Showers and a few thunderstorms will again be possible across Florida, focused near diurnal/sea-breeze boundaries. Some potential for lightning will also evolve across the central Gulf Coast region, as a weak mid-level disturbance over the Gulf drifts northward. Given limited buoyancy and generally weak flow aloft, severe-weather risk will remain low. ..Goss.. 10/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Discussion... Fast, weakly cyclonic flow aloft will prevail across the northern half of the U.S. Thursday, while slack flow -- and weak ridging -- prevails over the south. Low-level moisture/instability will remain confined to the southeastern Atlantic and Gulf Coast states through the period. Showers and a few thunderstorms will again be possible across Florida, focused near diurnal/sea-breeze boundaries. Some potential for lightning will also evolve across the central Gulf Coast region, as a weak mid-level disturbance over the Gulf drifts northward. Given limited buoyancy and generally weak flow aloft, severe-weather risk will remain low. ..Goss.. 10/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Discussion... Fast, weakly cyclonic flow aloft will prevail across the northern half of the U.S. Thursday, while slack flow -- and weak ridging -- prevails over the south. Low-level moisture/instability will remain confined to the southeastern Atlantic and Gulf Coast states through the period. Showers and a few thunderstorms will again be possible across Florida, focused near diurnal/sea-breeze boundaries. Some potential for lightning will also evolve across the central Gulf Coast region, as a weak mid-level disturbance over the Gulf drifts northward. Given limited buoyancy and generally weak flow aloft, severe-weather risk will remain low. ..Goss.. 10/01/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 PM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN WYOMING... An Elevated risk area has been introduced to portions of the mid-Missouri River Valley into the upper Mississippi River Valley. Latest forecast guidance has come into better agreement regarding wind speeds and RH reductions ahead of the approaching cold front. Moisture return within the dry return pattern will be minimal and should allow RH reductions well into the 20-25% range. Sustained winds between 15-25 mph should be common and will support elevated fire weather concerns. An additional Elevated risk area was considered along the SD/ND border into eastern ND within the post-frontal regime. However, deterministic and ensemble guidance shows somewhat more spread/less certainty regarding the timing of the front and the degree of post-frontal RH reductions. Trends will continue to be monitored and additional highlights may be needed. ..Moore.. 10/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... An elongated mid-level jet will extend along the US/Canada border on Wednesday. At the surface, a cold front will move through the Plains with a weak surface low developing in the central Plains Wednesday night. Ahead of this front, some dry and breezy conditions are expected from the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle to the Upper Midwest. However, the majority of this region lacks dry fuels. Therefore, no Elevated area is justified in this region. An Elevated area has been drawn similar to the prior Day3 40% outlook across southern Wyoming where fuels are critically dry. Sustained winds of 25 to 30 mph are expected, as mid-level flow strengthens and a deeply-mixed airmass permits some of this stronger flow to reach the surface. Single-digit relative humidity is also expected across this region on Wednesday afternoon. Given the upper-end critical conditions expected, a Critical area has been added within the broader Elevated, where these conditions are expected to overlap the driest fuels across southeast Wyoming. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 PM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN WYOMING... An Elevated risk area has been introduced to portions of the mid-Missouri River Valley into the upper Mississippi River Valley. Latest forecast guidance has come into better agreement regarding wind speeds and RH reductions ahead of the approaching cold front. Moisture return within the dry return pattern will be minimal and should allow RH reductions well into the 20-25% range. Sustained winds between 15-25 mph should be common and will support elevated fire weather concerns. An additional Elevated risk area was considered along the SD/ND border into eastern ND within the post-frontal regime. However, deterministic and ensemble guidance shows somewhat more spread/less certainty regarding the timing of the front and the degree of post-frontal RH reductions. Trends will continue to be monitored and additional highlights may be needed. ..Moore.. 10/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... An elongated mid-level jet will extend along the US/Canada border on Wednesday. At the surface, a cold front will move through the Plains with a weak surface low developing in the central Plains Wednesday night. Ahead of this front, some dry and breezy conditions are expected from the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle to the Upper Midwest. However, the majority of this region lacks dry fuels. Therefore, no Elevated area is justified in this region. An Elevated area has been drawn similar to the prior Day3 40% outlook across southern Wyoming where fuels are critically dry. Sustained winds of 25 to 30 mph are expected, as mid-level flow strengthens and a deeply-mixed airmass permits some of this stronger flow to reach the surface. Single-digit relative humidity is also expected across this region on Wednesday afternoon. Given the upper-end critical conditions expected, a Critical area has been added within the broader Elevated, where these conditions are expected to overlap the driest fuels across southeast Wyoming. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 PM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN WYOMING... An Elevated risk area has been introduced to portions of the mid-Missouri River Valley into the upper Mississippi River Valley. Latest forecast guidance has come into better agreement regarding wind speeds and RH reductions ahead of the approaching cold front. Moisture return within the dry return pattern will be minimal and should allow RH reductions well into the 20-25% range. Sustained winds between 15-25 mph should be common and will support elevated fire weather concerns. An additional Elevated risk area was considered along the SD/ND border into eastern ND within the post-frontal regime. However, deterministic and ensemble guidance shows somewhat more spread/less certainty regarding the timing of the front and the degree of post-frontal RH reductions. Trends will continue to be monitored and additional highlights may be needed. ..Moore.. 10/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... An elongated mid-level jet will extend along the US/Canada border on Wednesday. At the surface, a cold front will move through the Plains with a weak surface low developing in the central Plains Wednesday night. Ahead of this front, some dry and breezy conditions are expected from the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle to the Upper Midwest. However, the majority of this region lacks dry fuels. Therefore, no Elevated area is justified in this region. An Elevated area has been drawn similar to the prior Day3 40% outlook across southern Wyoming where fuels are critically dry. Sustained winds of 25 to 30 mph are expected, as mid-level flow strengthens and a deeply-mixed airmass permits some of this stronger flow to reach the surface. Single-digit relative humidity is also expected across this region on Wednesday afternoon. Given the upper-end critical conditions expected, a Critical area has been added within the broader Elevated, where these conditions are expected to overlap the driest fuels across southeast Wyoming. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 PM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN WYOMING... An Elevated risk area has been introduced to portions of the mid-Missouri River Valley into the upper Mississippi River Valley. Latest forecast guidance has come into better agreement regarding wind speeds and RH reductions ahead of the approaching cold front. Moisture return within the dry return pattern will be minimal and should allow RH reductions well into the 20-25% range. Sustained winds between 15-25 mph should be common and will support elevated fire weather concerns. An additional Elevated risk area was considered along the SD/ND border into eastern ND within the post-frontal regime. However, deterministic and ensemble guidance shows somewhat more spread/less certainty regarding the timing of the front and the degree of post-frontal RH reductions. Trends will continue to be monitored and additional highlights may be needed. ..Moore.. 10/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... An elongated mid-level jet will extend along the US/Canada border on Wednesday. At the surface, a cold front will move through the Plains with a weak surface low developing in the central Plains Wednesday night. Ahead of this front, some dry and breezy conditions are expected from the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle to the Upper Midwest. However, the majority of this region lacks dry fuels. Therefore, no Elevated area is justified in this region. An Elevated area has been drawn similar to the prior Day3 40% outlook across southern Wyoming where fuels are critically dry. Sustained winds of 25 to 30 mph are expected, as mid-level flow strengthens and a deeply-mixed airmass permits some of this stronger flow to reach the surface. Single-digit relative humidity is also expected across this region on Wednesday afternoon. Given the upper-end critical conditions expected, a Critical area has been added within the broader Elevated, where these conditions are expected to overlap the driest fuels across southeast Wyoming. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more