Severe Storms

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Discussion... Weak flow aloft will prevail across the southern half of the U.S. Thursday, where general ridging aloft will prevail. Over the northern half of the country, faster flow will reside, with a trough forecast to progress across the north-central states and eventually reach the Upper Great Lakes. At the surface, a cold front will advance eastward across the Great Lakes, and more slowly southward across the Plains. Meager low-level moisture is expected ahead of this front, however, with the richer/tropical moisture remaining confined to the Southeast and Gulf Coast states. Thus, lack of appreciable instability should preclude thunderstorm activity with this front. As a weak disturbance aloft drifts northward out of the central Gulf of Mexico and into the central Gulf Coast states, showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected to evolve, from the mouth of the Mississippi River to Florida. However, weak flow aloft will preclude any appreciable risk for severe weather through the period. ..Goss.. 10/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Discussion... Weak flow aloft will prevail across the southern half of the U.S. Thursday, where general ridging aloft will prevail. Over the northern half of the country, faster flow will reside, with a trough forecast to progress across the north-central states and eventually reach the Upper Great Lakes. At the surface, a cold front will advance eastward across the Great Lakes, and more slowly southward across the Plains. Meager low-level moisture is expected ahead of this front, however, with the richer/tropical moisture remaining confined to the Southeast and Gulf Coast states. Thus, lack of appreciable instability should preclude thunderstorm activity with this front. As a weak disturbance aloft drifts northward out of the central Gulf of Mexico and into the central Gulf Coast states, showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected to evolve, from the mouth of the Mississippi River to Florida. However, weak flow aloft will preclude any appreciable risk for severe weather through the period. ..Goss.. 10/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Discussion... Weak flow aloft will prevail across the southern half of the U.S. Thursday, where general ridging aloft will prevail. Over the northern half of the country, faster flow will reside, with a trough forecast to progress across the north-central states and eventually reach the Upper Great Lakes. At the surface, a cold front will advance eastward across the Great Lakes, and more slowly southward across the Plains. Meager low-level moisture is expected ahead of this front, however, with the richer/tropical moisture remaining confined to the Southeast and Gulf Coast states. Thus, lack of appreciable instability should preclude thunderstorm activity with this front. As a weak disturbance aloft drifts northward out of the central Gulf of Mexico and into the central Gulf Coast states, showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected to evolve, from the mouth of the Mississippi River to Florida. However, weak flow aloft will preclude any appreciable risk for severe weather through the period. ..Goss.. 10/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Discussion... Weak flow aloft will prevail across the southern half of the U.S. Thursday, where general ridging aloft will prevail. Over the northern half of the country, faster flow will reside, with a trough forecast to progress across the north-central states and eventually reach the Upper Great Lakes. At the surface, a cold front will advance eastward across the Great Lakes, and more slowly southward across the Plains. Meager low-level moisture is expected ahead of this front, however, with the richer/tropical moisture remaining confined to the Southeast and Gulf Coast states. Thus, lack of appreciable instability should preclude thunderstorm activity with this front. As a weak disturbance aloft drifts northward out of the central Gulf of Mexico and into the central Gulf Coast states, showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected to evolve, from the mouth of the Mississippi River to Florida. However, weak flow aloft will preclude any appreciable risk for severe weather through the period. ..Goss.. 10/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Discussion... Weak flow aloft will prevail across the southern half of the U.S. Thursday, where general ridging aloft will prevail. Over the northern half of the country, faster flow will reside, with a trough forecast to progress across the north-central states and eventually reach the Upper Great Lakes. At the surface, a cold front will advance eastward across the Great Lakes, and more slowly southward across the Plains. Meager low-level moisture is expected ahead of this front, however, with the richer/tropical moisture remaining confined to the Southeast and Gulf Coast states. Thus, lack of appreciable instability should preclude thunderstorm activity with this front. As a weak disturbance aloft drifts northward out of the central Gulf of Mexico and into the central Gulf Coast states, showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected to evolve, from the mouth of the Mississippi River to Florida. However, weak flow aloft will preclude any appreciable risk for severe weather through the period. ..Goss.. 10/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Discussion... Weak flow aloft will prevail across the southern half of the U.S. Thursday, where general ridging aloft will prevail. Over the northern half of the country, faster flow will reside, with a trough forecast to progress across the north-central states and eventually reach the Upper Great Lakes. At the surface, a cold front will advance eastward across the Great Lakes, and more slowly southward across the Plains. Meager low-level moisture is expected ahead of this front, however, with the richer/tropical moisture remaining confined to the Southeast and Gulf Coast states. Thus, lack of appreciable instability should preclude thunderstorm activity with this front. As a weak disturbance aloft drifts northward out of the central Gulf of Mexico and into the central Gulf Coast states, showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected to evolve, from the mouth of the Mississippi River to Florida. However, weak flow aloft will preclude any appreciable risk for severe weather through the period. ..Goss.. 10/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis... Latest visible satellite imagery and surface observations indicate a quasi-stationary surface boundary extending across portions of northern FL. South of the boundary, diurnal heating of a moist air mass, coupled with sea breeze circulations, will support scattered diurnal thunderstorm development. Deep tropospheric moisture and steepening low-level lapse rates may support a few wet microbursts with strong-gust potential over central FL -- where any localized clustering occurs. However, weak deep-layer shear and poor midlevel lapse rates should limit the organization and intensity of storms. ..Weinman.. 10/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis... Latest visible satellite imagery and surface observations indicate a quasi-stationary surface boundary extending across portions of northern FL. South of the boundary, diurnal heating of a moist air mass, coupled with sea breeze circulations, will support scattered diurnal thunderstorm development. Deep tropospheric moisture and steepening low-level lapse rates may support a few wet microbursts with strong-gust potential over central FL -- where any localized clustering occurs. However, weak deep-layer shear and poor midlevel lapse rates should limit the organization and intensity of storms. ..Weinman.. 10/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis... Latest visible satellite imagery and surface observations indicate a quasi-stationary surface boundary extending across portions of northern FL. South of the boundary, diurnal heating of a moist air mass, coupled with sea breeze circulations, will support scattered diurnal thunderstorm development. Deep tropospheric moisture and steepening low-level lapse rates may support a few wet microbursts with strong-gust potential over central FL -- where any localized clustering occurs. However, weak deep-layer shear and poor midlevel lapse rates should limit the organization and intensity of storms. ..Weinman.. 10/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis... Latest visible satellite imagery and surface observations indicate a quasi-stationary surface boundary extending across portions of northern FL. South of the boundary, diurnal heating of a moist air mass, coupled with sea breeze circulations, will support scattered diurnal thunderstorm development. Deep tropospheric moisture and steepening low-level lapse rates may support a few wet microbursts with strong-gust potential over central FL -- where any localized clustering occurs. However, weak deep-layer shear and poor midlevel lapse rates should limit the organization and intensity of storms. ..Weinman.. 10/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis... Latest visible satellite imagery and surface observations indicate a quasi-stationary surface boundary extending across portions of northern FL. South of the boundary, diurnal heating of a moist air mass, coupled with sea breeze circulations, will support scattered diurnal thunderstorm development. Deep tropospheric moisture and steepening low-level lapse rates may support a few wet microbursts with strong-gust potential over central FL -- where any localized clustering occurs. However, weak deep-layer shear and poor midlevel lapse rates should limit the organization and intensity of storms. ..Weinman.. 10/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis... Latest visible satellite imagery and surface observations indicate a quasi-stationary surface boundary extending across portions of northern FL. South of the boundary, diurnal heating of a moist air mass, coupled with sea breeze circulations, will support scattered diurnal thunderstorm development. Deep tropospheric moisture and steepening low-level lapse rates may support a few wet microbursts with strong-gust potential over central FL -- where any localized clustering occurs. However, weak deep-layer shear and poor midlevel lapse rates should limit the organization and intensity of storms. ..Weinman.. 10/02/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1035 AM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST WYOMING... The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments made based on morning observations and latest guidance. 12 UTC 925 and 850 mb analyses continue to show the low-level thermal trough oriented from southeast WY into the eastern Dakotas - largely aligned with the surface trough. As such, the warmest/driest conditions will likely remain offset slightly from the strongest winds (which are already increasing to 15-20 knots on either side of the surface trough) through the afternoon, and limits confidence in the coverage/duration of critical conditions. The Elevated risk areas were both expanded based on where observations are already showing dry/windy conditions, and on morning HREF guidance with a slight bias towards recent HRRR solutions that have accurately captured morning trends. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 10/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... An elongated mid-level jet will extend along the US/Canada border today. At the surface, a cold front will move through the Plains with a weak surface low developing in the central Plains tonight. Ahead of this front, some dry and breezy conditions are expected from the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle to the Upper Midwest. Fuels are moist from central Kansas southward, but north of this region, fuels have dried out and some threat for large fire exists. The greatest change to the prior Day 2 fire weather outlook was the addition of much of the northern Plains across the Dakotas and into far eastern Montana. Fuels in this region are very dry, and forecast guidance indicates 15 to 25 mph winds with 15 to 25 percent relative humidity are possible across much of this region. Elevated fire weather conditions are also expected across southern Wyoming where fuels are critically dry and sustained winds of 25 to 30 mph are expected, as mid-level flow strengthens and a deeply mixed airmass permits some of this stronger flow to reach the surface. Single-digit relative humidity is also expected across this region on this afternoon. Most of this region should experience Elevated fire-weather conditions, with some critical conditions across portions of south-central and southeast Wyoming where the Critical delineation is present. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1035 AM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST WYOMING... The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments made based on morning observations and latest guidance. 12 UTC 925 and 850 mb analyses continue to show the low-level thermal trough oriented from southeast WY into the eastern Dakotas - largely aligned with the surface trough. As such, the warmest/driest conditions will likely remain offset slightly from the strongest winds (which are already increasing to 15-20 knots on either side of the surface trough) through the afternoon, and limits confidence in the coverage/duration of critical conditions. The Elevated risk areas were both expanded based on where observations are already showing dry/windy conditions, and on morning HREF guidance with a slight bias towards recent HRRR solutions that have accurately captured morning trends. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 10/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... An elongated mid-level jet will extend along the US/Canada border today. At the surface, a cold front will move through the Plains with a weak surface low developing in the central Plains tonight. Ahead of this front, some dry and breezy conditions are expected from the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle to the Upper Midwest. Fuels are moist from central Kansas southward, but north of this region, fuels have dried out and some threat for large fire exists. The greatest change to the prior Day 2 fire weather outlook was the addition of much of the northern Plains across the Dakotas and into far eastern Montana. Fuels in this region are very dry, and forecast guidance indicates 15 to 25 mph winds with 15 to 25 percent relative humidity are possible across much of this region. Elevated fire weather conditions are also expected across southern Wyoming where fuels are critically dry and sustained winds of 25 to 30 mph are expected, as mid-level flow strengthens and a deeply mixed airmass permits some of this stronger flow to reach the surface. Single-digit relative humidity is also expected across this region on this afternoon. Most of this region should experience Elevated fire-weather conditions, with some critical conditions across portions of south-central and southeast Wyoming where the Critical delineation is present. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1035 AM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST WYOMING... The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments made based on morning observations and latest guidance. 12 UTC 925 and 850 mb analyses continue to show the low-level thermal trough oriented from southeast WY into the eastern Dakotas - largely aligned with the surface trough. As such, the warmest/driest conditions will likely remain offset slightly from the strongest winds (which are already increasing to 15-20 knots on either side of the surface trough) through the afternoon, and limits confidence in the coverage/duration of critical conditions. The Elevated risk areas were both expanded based on where observations are already showing dry/windy conditions, and on morning HREF guidance with a slight bias towards recent HRRR solutions that have accurately captured morning trends. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 10/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... An elongated mid-level jet will extend along the US/Canada border today. At the surface, a cold front will move through the Plains with a weak surface low developing in the central Plains tonight. Ahead of this front, some dry and breezy conditions are expected from the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle to the Upper Midwest. Fuels are moist from central Kansas southward, but north of this region, fuels have dried out and some threat for large fire exists. The greatest change to the prior Day 2 fire weather outlook was the addition of much of the northern Plains across the Dakotas and into far eastern Montana. Fuels in this region are very dry, and forecast guidance indicates 15 to 25 mph winds with 15 to 25 percent relative humidity are possible across much of this region. Elevated fire weather conditions are also expected across southern Wyoming where fuels are critically dry and sustained winds of 25 to 30 mph are expected, as mid-level flow strengthens and a deeply mixed airmass permits some of this stronger flow to reach the surface. Single-digit relative humidity is also expected across this region on this afternoon. Most of this region should experience Elevated fire-weather conditions, with some critical conditions across portions of south-central and southeast Wyoming where the Critical delineation is present. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1035 AM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST WYOMING... The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments made based on morning observations and latest guidance. 12 UTC 925 and 850 mb analyses continue to show the low-level thermal trough oriented from southeast WY into the eastern Dakotas - largely aligned with the surface trough. As such, the warmest/driest conditions will likely remain offset slightly from the strongest winds (which are already increasing to 15-20 knots on either side of the surface trough) through the afternoon, and limits confidence in the coverage/duration of critical conditions. The Elevated risk areas were both expanded based on where observations are already showing dry/windy conditions, and on morning HREF guidance with a slight bias towards recent HRRR solutions that have accurately captured morning trends. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 10/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... An elongated mid-level jet will extend along the US/Canada border today. At the surface, a cold front will move through the Plains with a weak surface low developing in the central Plains tonight. Ahead of this front, some dry and breezy conditions are expected from the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle to the Upper Midwest. Fuels are moist from central Kansas southward, but north of this region, fuels have dried out and some threat for large fire exists. The greatest change to the prior Day 2 fire weather outlook was the addition of much of the northern Plains across the Dakotas and into far eastern Montana. Fuels in this region are very dry, and forecast guidance indicates 15 to 25 mph winds with 15 to 25 percent relative humidity are possible across much of this region. Elevated fire weather conditions are also expected across southern Wyoming where fuels are critically dry and sustained winds of 25 to 30 mph are expected, as mid-level flow strengthens and a deeply mixed airmass permits some of this stronger flow to reach the surface. Single-digit relative humidity is also expected across this region on this afternoon. Most of this region should experience Elevated fire-weather conditions, with some critical conditions across portions of south-central and southeast Wyoming where the Critical delineation is present. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1035 AM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST WYOMING... The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments made based on morning observations and latest guidance. 12 UTC 925 and 850 mb analyses continue to show the low-level thermal trough oriented from southeast WY into the eastern Dakotas - largely aligned with the surface trough. As such, the warmest/driest conditions will likely remain offset slightly from the strongest winds (which are already increasing to 15-20 knots on either side of the surface trough) through the afternoon, and limits confidence in the coverage/duration of critical conditions. The Elevated risk areas were both expanded based on where observations are already showing dry/windy conditions, and on morning HREF guidance with a slight bias towards recent HRRR solutions that have accurately captured morning trends. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 10/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... An elongated mid-level jet will extend along the US/Canada border today. At the surface, a cold front will move through the Plains with a weak surface low developing in the central Plains tonight. Ahead of this front, some dry and breezy conditions are expected from the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle to the Upper Midwest. Fuels are moist from central Kansas southward, but north of this region, fuels have dried out and some threat for large fire exists. The greatest change to the prior Day 2 fire weather outlook was the addition of much of the northern Plains across the Dakotas and into far eastern Montana. Fuels in this region are very dry, and forecast guidance indicates 15 to 25 mph winds with 15 to 25 percent relative humidity are possible across much of this region. Elevated fire weather conditions are also expected across southern Wyoming where fuels are critically dry and sustained winds of 25 to 30 mph are expected, as mid-level flow strengthens and a deeply mixed airmass permits some of this stronger flow to reach the surface. Single-digit relative humidity is also expected across this region on this afternoon. Most of this region should experience Elevated fire-weather conditions, with some critical conditions across portions of south-central and southeast Wyoming where the Critical delineation is present. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1035 AM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST WYOMING... The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments made based on morning observations and latest guidance. 12 UTC 925 and 850 mb analyses continue to show the low-level thermal trough oriented from southeast WY into the eastern Dakotas - largely aligned with the surface trough. As such, the warmest/driest conditions will likely remain offset slightly from the strongest winds (which are already increasing to 15-20 knots on either side of the surface trough) through the afternoon, and limits confidence in the coverage/duration of critical conditions. The Elevated risk areas were both expanded based on where observations are already showing dry/windy conditions, and on morning HREF guidance with a slight bias towards recent HRRR solutions that have accurately captured morning trends. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 10/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... An elongated mid-level jet will extend along the US/Canada border today. At the surface, a cold front will move through the Plains with a weak surface low developing in the central Plains tonight. Ahead of this front, some dry and breezy conditions are expected from the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle to the Upper Midwest. Fuels are moist from central Kansas southward, but north of this region, fuels have dried out and some threat for large fire exists. The greatest change to the prior Day 2 fire weather outlook was the addition of much of the northern Plains across the Dakotas and into far eastern Montana. Fuels in this region are very dry, and forecast guidance indicates 15 to 25 mph winds with 15 to 25 percent relative humidity are possible across much of this region. Elevated fire weather conditions are also expected across southern Wyoming where fuels are critically dry and sustained winds of 25 to 30 mph are expected, as mid-level flow strengthens and a deeply mixed airmass permits some of this stronger flow to reach the surface. Single-digit relative humidity is also expected across this region on this afternoon. Most of this region should experience Elevated fire-weather conditions, with some critical conditions across portions of south-central and southeast Wyoming where the Critical delineation is present. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0733 AM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024 Valid 021300Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... The mid/upper-level pattern will be characterized by a belt of gently difluent, west-northwesterly northern-stream flow from the Pacific Northwest to the Great Lakes. This flow will weaken considerably and become much more difluent over the Ohio Valley, mid Mississippi Valley and Appalachians. The strongest flow aloft will be well-displaced from any substantial low-level moisture/theta-e, which is expected to remain along and south of a quasistationary front draped across north-central FL. Scattered daytime thunderstorms are expected to form along FL East and West Coast sea breezes, shifting inland as the boundaries (including outflows from the first generation of convection nearer the coasts) merge. Weak deep-layer flow and lack of shear will preclude organized severe potential. Localized strong gusts are possible in wet downbursts with enhanced lift along colliding boundaries, 1500-2000 J/kg preconvective MLCAPE, and rich inflow- layer moisture (surface dewpoints 70s F and PW commonly over 2 inches). Elsewhere, very isolated/brief lightning may occur near the AZ/NM border and Mogollon Rim, but with barely enough moisture for convection, coverage is expected to be too small for a 10% area. ..Edwards/Dean.. 10/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0733 AM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024 Valid 021300Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... The mid/upper-level pattern will be characterized by a belt of gently difluent, west-northwesterly northern-stream flow from the Pacific Northwest to the Great Lakes. This flow will weaken considerably and become much more difluent over the Ohio Valley, mid Mississippi Valley and Appalachians. The strongest flow aloft will be well-displaced from any substantial low-level moisture/theta-e, which is expected to remain along and south of a quasistationary front draped across north-central FL. Scattered daytime thunderstorms are expected to form along FL East and West Coast sea breezes, shifting inland as the boundaries (including outflows from the first generation of convection nearer the coasts) merge. Weak deep-layer flow and lack of shear will preclude organized severe potential. Localized strong gusts are possible in wet downbursts with enhanced lift along colliding boundaries, 1500-2000 J/kg preconvective MLCAPE, and rich inflow- layer moisture (surface dewpoints 70s F and PW commonly over 2 inches). Elsewhere, very isolated/brief lightning may occur near the AZ/NM border and Mogollon Rim, but with barely enough moisture for convection, coverage is expected to be too small for a 10% area. ..Edwards/Dean.. 10/02/2024 Read more