Severe Storms

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 PM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A quiet mid-level pattern for thunderstorms is expected across much of the CONUS with zonal flow over the north and a series of anticyclones/ridging across the south. Stable conditions in the north should preclude thunderstorm development with embedded low-amplitude shortwave impulses. Across the south, isolated thunderstorms will remain possible over the FL Peninsula, centered on the central portion, where the sea breeze should provide sufficient lift during the afternoon. Very isolated thunderstorms are also possible within a portion of the Mogollon Rim where limited mid-level moisture remains. ..Grams.. 09/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 PM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A quiet mid-level pattern for thunderstorms is expected across much of the CONUS with zonal flow over the north and a series of anticyclones/ridging across the south. Stable conditions in the north should preclude thunderstorm development with embedded low-amplitude shortwave impulses. Across the south, isolated thunderstorms will remain possible over the FL Peninsula, centered on the central portion, where the sea breeze should provide sufficient lift during the afternoon. Very isolated thunderstorms are also possible within a portion of the Mogollon Rim where limited mid-level moisture remains. ..Grams.. 09/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Discussion... Scattered thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday afternoon across the central FL Peninsula where a moderately buoyant air mass persists. A low-amplitude upper impulse will pass to its north across the Southeast, but deep-layer shear is expected to remain weak. In combination with marginal mid-level lapse rates, the severe-storm threat appears negligible. Across eastern NC to far southeast VA, a weakening shortwave trough will progress across the region and offshore Tuesday evening/night. Isolated thunderstorms will remain possible through the afternoon. Over the central to lower Great Lakes, a vigorous shortwave trough will move across ON and the northern Great Lakes. A surface cold front ahead of this trough will similarly move eastward, reaching Lower MI to IN by afternoon. With surface dewpoints in the low 60s, meager surface-based buoyancy should develop ahead of the front. But warm 700-mb temperatures and weak mid-level lapse rates, especially with southern extent along the front, suggest instability will remain limited and thunderstorm coverage will be sparse. With the bulk of stronger mid/upper flow lagging behind the front, severe storms are not anticipated. Limited mid-level moisture from the Mogollon Rim into southern AZ may promote very isolated thunderstorms during the afternoon. ..Grams.. 09/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Discussion... Scattered thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday afternoon across the central FL Peninsula where a moderately buoyant air mass persists. A low-amplitude upper impulse will pass to its north across the Southeast, but deep-layer shear is expected to remain weak. In combination with marginal mid-level lapse rates, the severe-storm threat appears negligible. Across eastern NC to far southeast VA, a weakening shortwave trough will progress across the region and offshore Tuesday evening/night. Isolated thunderstorms will remain possible through the afternoon. Over the central to lower Great Lakes, a vigorous shortwave trough will move across ON and the northern Great Lakes. A surface cold front ahead of this trough will similarly move eastward, reaching Lower MI to IN by afternoon. With surface dewpoints in the low 60s, meager surface-based buoyancy should develop ahead of the front. But warm 700-mb temperatures and weak mid-level lapse rates, especially with southern extent along the front, suggest instability will remain limited and thunderstorm coverage will be sparse. With the bulk of stronger mid/upper flow lagging behind the front, severe storms are not anticipated. Limited mid-level moisture from the Mogollon Rim into southern AZ may promote very isolated thunderstorms during the afternoon. ..Grams.. 09/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Discussion... Scattered thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday afternoon across the central FL Peninsula where a moderately buoyant air mass persists. A low-amplitude upper impulse will pass to its north across the Southeast, but deep-layer shear is expected to remain weak. In combination with marginal mid-level lapse rates, the severe-storm threat appears negligible. Across eastern NC to far southeast VA, a weakening shortwave trough will progress across the region and offshore Tuesday evening/night. Isolated thunderstorms will remain possible through the afternoon. Over the central to lower Great Lakes, a vigorous shortwave trough will move across ON and the northern Great Lakes. A surface cold front ahead of this trough will similarly move eastward, reaching Lower MI to IN by afternoon. With surface dewpoints in the low 60s, meager surface-based buoyancy should develop ahead of the front. But warm 700-mb temperatures and weak mid-level lapse rates, especially with southern extent along the front, suggest instability will remain limited and thunderstorm coverage will be sparse. With the bulk of stronger mid/upper flow lagging behind the front, severe storms are not anticipated. Limited mid-level moisture from the Mogollon Rim into southern AZ may promote very isolated thunderstorms during the afternoon. ..Grams.. 09/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Discussion... Scattered thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday afternoon across the central FL Peninsula where a moderately buoyant air mass persists. A low-amplitude upper impulse will pass to its north across the Southeast, but deep-layer shear is expected to remain weak. In combination with marginal mid-level lapse rates, the severe-storm threat appears negligible. Across eastern NC to far southeast VA, a weakening shortwave trough will progress across the region and offshore Tuesday evening/night. Isolated thunderstorms will remain possible through the afternoon. Over the central to lower Great Lakes, a vigorous shortwave trough will move across ON and the northern Great Lakes. A surface cold front ahead of this trough will similarly move eastward, reaching Lower MI to IN by afternoon. With surface dewpoints in the low 60s, meager surface-based buoyancy should develop ahead of the front. But warm 700-mb temperatures and weak mid-level lapse rates, especially with southern extent along the front, suggest instability will remain limited and thunderstorm coverage will be sparse. With the bulk of stronger mid/upper flow lagging behind the front, severe storms are not anticipated. Limited mid-level moisture from the Mogollon Rim into southern AZ may promote very isolated thunderstorms during the afternoon. ..Grams.. 09/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Discussion... Scattered thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday afternoon across the central FL Peninsula where a moderately buoyant air mass persists. A low-amplitude upper impulse will pass to its north across the Southeast, but deep-layer shear is expected to remain weak. In combination with marginal mid-level lapse rates, the severe-storm threat appears negligible. Across eastern NC to far southeast VA, a weakening shortwave trough will progress across the region and offshore Tuesday evening/night. Isolated thunderstorms will remain possible through the afternoon. Over the central to lower Great Lakes, a vigorous shortwave trough will move across ON and the northern Great Lakes. A surface cold front ahead of this trough will similarly move eastward, reaching Lower MI to IN by afternoon. With surface dewpoints in the low 60s, meager surface-based buoyancy should develop ahead of the front. But warm 700-mb temperatures and weak mid-level lapse rates, especially with southern extent along the front, suggest instability will remain limited and thunderstorm coverage will be sparse. With the bulk of stronger mid/upper flow lagging behind the front, severe storms are not anticipated. Limited mid-level moisture from the Mogollon Rim into southern AZ may promote very isolated thunderstorms during the afternoon. ..Grams.. 09/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Discussion... Scattered thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday afternoon across the central FL Peninsula where a moderately buoyant air mass persists. A low-amplitude upper impulse will pass to its north across the Southeast, but deep-layer shear is expected to remain weak. In combination with marginal mid-level lapse rates, the severe-storm threat appears negligible. Across eastern NC to far southeast VA, a weakening shortwave trough will progress across the region and offshore Tuesday evening/night. Isolated thunderstorms will remain possible through the afternoon. Over the central to lower Great Lakes, a vigorous shortwave trough will move across ON and the northern Great Lakes. A surface cold front ahead of this trough will similarly move eastward, reaching Lower MI to IN by afternoon. With surface dewpoints in the low 60s, meager surface-based buoyancy should develop ahead of the front. But warm 700-mb temperatures and weak mid-level lapse rates, especially with southern extent along the front, suggest instability will remain limited and thunderstorm coverage will be sparse. With the bulk of stronger mid/upper flow lagging behind the front, severe storms are not anticipated. Limited mid-level moisture from the Mogollon Rim into southern AZ may promote very isolated thunderstorms during the afternoon. ..Grams.. 09/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Discussion... Scattered thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday afternoon across the central FL Peninsula where a moderately buoyant air mass persists. A low-amplitude upper impulse will pass to its north across the Southeast, but deep-layer shear is expected to remain weak. In combination with marginal mid-level lapse rates, the severe-storm threat appears negligible. Across eastern NC to far southeast VA, a weakening shortwave trough will progress across the region and offshore Tuesday evening/night. Isolated thunderstorms will remain possible through the afternoon. Over the central to lower Great Lakes, a vigorous shortwave trough will move across ON and the northern Great Lakes. A surface cold front ahead of this trough will similarly move eastward, reaching Lower MI to IN by afternoon. With surface dewpoints in the low 60s, meager surface-based buoyancy should develop ahead of the front. But warm 700-mb temperatures and weak mid-level lapse rates, especially with southern extent along the front, suggest instability will remain limited and thunderstorm coverage will be sparse. With the bulk of stronger mid/upper flow lagging behind the front, severe storms are not anticipated. Limited mid-level moisture from the Mogollon Rim into southern AZ may promote very isolated thunderstorms during the afternoon. ..Grams.. 09/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1108 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Valid 301630Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to possibly severe thunderstorms may affect central/eastern North Carolina this afternoon. ...NC... Late morning surface analysis and visible satellite imagery show a weak boundary extending across eastern NC. Strong heating will occur along and to the south of the boundary this afternoon, where dewpoints are in the mid 70s. Despite the high/increasing low level theta-e, CAPE profiles will be limited by poor mid-level lapse rates but will still be sufficient for scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Low-level winds are weak, but forecast soundings show veering in the lowest 2km near the boundary, and sufficient southwesterly flow aloft for storm-scale organization. This suggests a scenario somewhat similar to yesterday in southern VA, albeit a little more favorable. A few rotating storms are possible, with some potential for a tornado or two or locally strong wind gusts with the more organized cells. Therefore have added a narrow MRGL risk area in vicinity of the surface boundary. ..Hart/Weinman.. 09/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1108 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Valid 301630Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to possibly severe thunderstorms may affect central/eastern North Carolina this afternoon. ...NC... Late morning surface analysis and visible satellite imagery show a weak boundary extending across eastern NC. Strong heating will occur along and to the south of the boundary this afternoon, where dewpoints are in the mid 70s. Despite the high/increasing low level theta-e, CAPE profiles will be limited by poor mid-level lapse rates but will still be sufficient for scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Low-level winds are weak, but forecast soundings show veering in the lowest 2km near the boundary, and sufficient southwesterly flow aloft for storm-scale organization. This suggests a scenario somewhat similar to yesterday in southern VA, albeit a little more favorable. A few rotating storms are possible, with some potential for a tornado or two or locally strong wind gusts with the more organized cells. Therefore have added a narrow MRGL risk area in vicinity of the surface boundary. ..Hart/Weinman.. 09/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1108 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Valid 301630Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to possibly severe thunderstorms may affect central/eastern North Carolina this afternoon. ...NC... Late morning surface analysis and visible satellite imagery show a weak boundary extending across eastern NC. Strong heating will occur along and to the south of the boundary this afternoon, where dewpoints are in the mid 70s. Despite the high/increasing low level theta-e, CAPE profiles will be limited by poor mid-level lapse rates but will still be sufficient for scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Low-level winds are weak, but forecast soundings show veering in the lowest 2km near the boundary, and sufficient southwesterly flow aloft for storm-scale organization. This suggests a scenario somewhat similar to yesterday in southern VA, albeit a little more favorable. A few rotating storms are possible, with some potential for a tornado or two or locally strong wind gusts with the more organized cells. Therefore have added a narrow MRGL risk area in vicinity of the surface boundary. ..Hart/Weinman.. 09/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1108 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Valid 301630Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to possibly severe thunderstorms may affect central/eastern North Carolina this afternoon. ...NC... Late morning surface analysis and visible satellite imagery show a weak boundary extending across eastern NC. Strong heating will occur along and to the south of the boundary this afternoon, where dewpoints are in the mid 70s. Despite the high/increasing low level theta-e, CAPE profiles will be limited by poor mid-level lapse rates but will still be sufficient for scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Low-level winds are weak, but forecast soundings show veering in the lowest 2km near the boundary, and sufficient southwesterly flow aloft for storm-scale organization. This suggests a scenario somewhat similar to yesterday in southern VA, albeit a little more favorable. A few rotating storms are possible, with some potential for a tornado or two or locally strong wind gusts with the more organized cells. Therefore have added a narrow MRGL risk area in vicinity of the surface boundary. ..Hart/Weinman.. 09/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1108 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Valid 301630Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to possibly severe thunderstorms may affect central/eastern North Carolina this afternoon. ...NC... Late morning surface analysis and visible satellite imagery show a weak boundary extending across eastern NC. Strong heating will occur along and to the south of the boundary this afternoon, where dewpoints are in the mid 70s. Despite the high/increasing low level theta-e, CAPE profiles will be limited by poor mid-level lapse rates but will still be sufficient for scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Low-level winds are weak, but forecast soundings show veering in the lowest 2km near the boundary, and sufficient southwesterly flow aloft for storm-scale organization. This suggests a scenario somewhat similar to yesterday in southern VA, albeit a little more favorable. A few rotating storms are possible, with some potential for a tornado or two or locally strong wind gusts with the more organized cells. Therefore have added a narrow MRGL risk area in vicinity of the surface boundary. ..Hart/Weinman.. 09/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1108 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Valid 301630Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to possibly severe thunderstorms may affect central/eastern North Carolina this afternoon. ...NC... Late morning surface analysis and visible satellite imagery show a weak boundary extending across eastern NC. Strong heating will occur along and to the south of the boundary this afternoon, where dewpoints are in the mid 70s. Despite the high/increasing low level theta-e, CAPE profiles will be limited by poor mid-level lapse rates but will still be sufficient for scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Low-level winds are weak, but forecast soundings show veering in the lowest 2km near the boundary, and sufficient southwesterly flow aloft for storm-scale organization. This suggests a scenario somewhat similar to yesterday in southern VA, albeit a little more favorable. A few rotating storms are possible, with some potential for a tornado or two or locally strong wind gusts with the more organized cells. Therefore have added a narrow MRGL risk area in vicinity of the surface boundary. ..Hart/Weinman.. 09/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1108 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Valid 301630Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to possibly severe thunderstorms may affect central/eastern North Carolina this afternoon. ...NC... Late morning surface analysis and visible satellite imagery show a weak boundary extending across eastern NC. Strong heating will occur along and to the south of the boundary this afternoon, where dewpoints are in the mid 70s. Despite the high/increasing low level theta-e, CAPE profiles will be limited by poor mid-level lapse rates but will still be sufficient for scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Low-level winds are weak, but forecast soundings show veering in the lowest 2km near the boundary, and sufficient southwesterly flow aloft for storm-scale organization. This suggests a scenario somewhat similar to yesterday in southern VA, albeit a little more favorable. A few rotating storms are possible, with some potential for a tornado or two or locally strong wind gusts with the more organized cells. Therefore have added a narrow MRGL risk area in vicinity of the surface boundary. ..Hart/Weinman.. 09/30/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1034 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Valid 301700Z - 011200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA... The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed based on trends in recent guidance. Mid-morning observations depict a strong cold front pushing southeast across the central and northern Plains. Post-frontal winds between 15-25 mph (gusting to 35-45 mph) are being reported with RH values beginning to fall with the diurnal heating cycle. Confidence remains high in several hours of critical fire weather conditions for central NE into central SD. 12z guidance that has captured the progression of the front and wind/RH trends the best - namely the RAP and HRRR - suggest dry/breezy post-frontal conditions may extended as far east as the MN/WI border by late afternoon, necessitating a slight eastward expansion of the Elevated risk area. Elevated wind/RH criteria may be met as far south as southeast CO, southern KS, and northwest OK later tonight; however, fuel conditions are not as dry compared to locations further north, and the strongest winds will likely be offset from peak heating. These concerns precluded a southward expansion despite reasonably high confidence in somewhat dry/windy conditions. ..Moore.. 09/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0115 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... Very strong winds are in place behind a cold front which is moving across Montana early this morning. Some sustained winds over 30 mph have been reported with gusts over 50 mph. As this front moves southeast, these breezy conditions are expected to continue in the post-frontal airmass. Poor overnight recoveries are occurring across the central Plains this morning with some relative humidity less than 25-30 percent, which is expected to continue through morning. In the immediate wake of the cold front late this morning and during the early afternoon, relative humidities are expected to be low before colder air arrives. Therefore, some critical fire weather concerns are expected across portions of Nebraska and South Dakota this afternoon. Farther west, some dry and breezy conditions are possible in terrain-favored areas of northeast Utah and southwest Wyoming where an Elevated is in place to cover this threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1034 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Valid 301700Z - 011200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA... The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed based on trends in recent guidance. Mid-morning observations depict a strong cold front pushing southeast across the central and northern Plains. Post-frontal winds between 15-25 mph (gusting to 35-45 mph) are being reported with RH values beginning to fall with the diurnal heating cycle. Confidence remains high in several hours of critical fire weather conditions for central NE into central SD. 12z guidance that has captured the progression of the front and wind/RH trends the best - namely the RAP and HRRR - suggest dry/breezy post-frontal conditions may extended as far east as the MN/WI border by late afternoon, necessitating a slight eastward expansion of the Elevated risk area. Elevated wind/RH criteria may be met as far south as southeast CO, southern KS, and northwest OK later tonight; however, fuel conditions are not as dry compared to locations further north, and the strongest winds will likely be offset from peak heating. These concerns precluded a southward expansion despite reasonably high confidence in somewhat dry/windy conditions. ..Moore.. 09/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0115 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... Very strong winds are in place behind a cold front which is moving across Montana early this morning. Some sustained winds over 30 mph have been reported with gusts over 50 mph. As this front moves southeast, these breezy conditions are expected to continue in the post-frontal airmass. Poor overnight recoveries are occurring across the central Plains this morning with some relative humidity less than 25-30 percent, which is expected to continue through morning. In the immediate wake of the cold front late this morning and during the early afternoon, relative humidities are expected to be low before colder air arrives. Therefore, some critical fire weather concerns are expected across portions of Nebraska and South Dakota this afternoon. Farther west, some dry and breezy conditions are possible in terrain-favored areas of northeast Utah and southwest Wyoming where an Elevated is in place to cover this threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1034 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Valid 301700Z - 011200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA... The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed based on trends in recent guidance. Mid-morning observations depict a strong cold front pushing southeast across the central and northern Plains. Post-frontal winds between 15-25 mph (gusting to 35-45 mph) are being reported with RH values beginning to fall with the diurnal heating cycle. Confidence remains high in several hours of critical fire weather conditions for central NE into central SD. 12z guidance that has captured the progression of the front and wind/RH trends the best - namely the RAP and HRRR - suggest dry/breezy post-frontal conditions may extended as far east as the MN/WI border by late afternoon, necessitating a slight eastward expansion of the Elevated risk area. Elevated wind/RH criteria may be met as far south as southeast CO, southern KS, and northwest OK later tonight; however, fuel conditions are not as dry compared to locations further north, and the strongest winds will likely be offset from peak heating. These concerns precluded a southward expansion despite reasonably high confidence in somewhat dry/windy conditions. ..Moore.. 09/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0115 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... Very strong winds are in place behind a cold front which is moving across Montana early this morning. Some sustained winds over 30 mph have been reported with gusts over 50 mph. As this front moves southeast, these breezy conditions are expected to continue in the post-frontal airmass. Poor overnight recoveries are occurring across the central Plains this morning with some relative humidity less than 25-30 percent, which is expected to continue through morning. In the immediate wake of the cold front late this morning and during the early afternoon, relative humidities are expected to be low before colder air arrives. Therefore, some critical fire weather concerns are expected across portions of Nebraska and South Dakota this afternoon. Farther west, some dry and breezy conditions are possible in terrain-favored areas of northeast Utah and southwest Wyoming where an Elevated is in place to cover this threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1034 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Valid 301700Z - 011200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA... The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed based on trends in recent guidance. Mid-morning observations depict a strong cold front pushing southeast across the central and northern Plains. Post-frontal winds between 15-25 mph (gusting to 35-45 mph) are being reported with RH values beginning to fall with the diurnal heating cycle. Confidence remains high in several hours of critical fire weather conditions for central NE into central SD. 12z guidance that has captured the progression of the front and wind/RH trends the best - namely the RAP and HRRR - suggest dry/breezy post-frontal conditions may extended as far east as the MN/WI border by late afternoon, necessitating a slight eastward expansion of the Elevated risk area. Elevated wind/RH criteria may be met as far south as southeast CO, southern KS, and northwest OK later tonight; however, fuel conditions are not as dry compared to locations further north, and the strongest winds will likely be offset from peak heating. These concerns precluded a southward expansion despite reasonably high confidence in somewhat dry/windy conditions. ..Moore.. 09/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0115 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... Very strong winds are in place behind a cold front which is moving across Montana early this morning. Some sustained winds over 30 mph have been reported with gusts over 50 mph. As this front moves southeast, these breezy conditions are expected to continue in the post-frontal airmass. Poor overnight recoveries are occurring across the central Plains this morning with some relative humidity less than 25-30 percent, which is expected to continue through morning. In the immediate wake of the cold front late this morning and during the early afternoon, relative humidities are expected to be low before colder air arrives. Therefore, some critical fire weather concerns are expected across portions of Nebraska and South Dakota this afternoon. Farther west, some dry and breezy conditions are possible in terrain-favored areas of northeast Utah and southwest Wyoming where an Elevated is in place to cover this threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more