Severe Storms

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper low resulting from interaction between Tropical Cyclone Helene and a mid-latitude cyclone will begin the period over the Lower OH Valley. Some very modest eastward progression of this system is forecast throughout the day. A surface low will be stacked beneath the upper low, with modest low-level moisture arcing cyclonically around this low from GA and Carolinas into the OH Valley. Despite the presence of this low-level moisture, relatively warm profiles will promote stable conditions, and deep convection is not anticipated. Farther south across the FL Peninsula, ample low-level moisture (i.e. dewpoints in the mid 70s) will help support modest buoyancy as temperatures warm into the upper 80s/low 90s amid strong daytime heating. Weak low-level convergence will foster afternoon thunderstorm development within this destabilized airmass. Weak shear should keep the severe-thunderstorm potential low. Expansive upper ridging that covers much of the Southwest and extends into the northern Plains is forecast to remain largely in place on Saturday. Modest moisture, characterized by PW values near 0.75", is expected beneath this ridging from the Four Corners vicinity into the central/southern Rockies. Some deeper convection is possible during peak heating across the southern Rockies, but forecast soundings suggest most convection will not be deep enough for charge separation except perhaps on an isolated basis. Thunderstorm potential should remain below 10%. ..Mosier.. 09/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper low resulting from interaction between Tropical Cyclone Helene and a mid-latitude cyclone will begin the period over the Lower OH Valley. Some very modest eastward progression of this system is forecast throughout the day. A surface low will be stacked beneath the upper low, with modest low-level moisture arcing cyclonically around this low from GA and Carolinas into the OH Valley. Despite the presence of this low-level moisture, relatively warm profiles will promote stable conditions, and deep convection is not anticipated. Farther south across the FL Peninsula, ample low-level moisture (i.e. dewpoints in the mid 70s) will help support modest buoyancy as temperatures warm into the upper 80s/low 90s amid strong daytime heating. Weak low-level convergence will foster afternoon thunderstorm development within this destabilized airmass. Weak shear should keep the severe-thunderstorm potential low. Expansive upper ridging that covers much of the Southwest and extends into the northern Plains is forecast to remain largely in place on Saturday. Modest moisture, characterized by PW values near 0.75", is expected beneath this ridging from the Four Corners vicinity into the central/southern Rockies. Some deeper convection is possible during peak heating across the southern Rockies, but forecast soundings suggest most convection will not be deep enough for charge separation except perhaps on an isolated basis. Thunderstorm potential should remain below 10%. ..Mosier.. 09/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper low resulting from interaction between Tropical Cyclone Helene and a mid-latitude cyclone will begin the period over the Lower OH Valley. Some very modest eastward progression of this system is forecast throughout the day. A surface low will be stacked beneath the upper low, with modest low-level moisture arcing cyclonically around this low from GA and Carolinas into the OH Valley. Despite the presence of this low-level moisture, relatively warm profiles will promote stable conditions, and deep convection is not anticipated. Farther south across the FL Peninsula, ample low-level moisture (i.e. dewpoints in the mid 70s) will help support modest buoyancy as temperatures warm into the upper 80s/low 90s amid strong daytime heating. Weak low-level convergence will foster afternoon thunderstorm development within this destabilized airmass. Weak shear should keep the severe-thunderstorm potential low. Expansive upper ridging that covers much of the Southwest and extends into the northern Plains is forecast to remain largely in place on Saturday. Modest moisture, characterized by PW values near 0.75", is expected beneath this ridging from the Four Corners vicinity into the central/southern Rockies. Some deeper convection is possible during peak heating across the southern Rockies, but forecast soundings suggest most convection will not be deep enough for charge separation except perhaps on an isolated basis. Thunderstorm potential should remain below 10%. ..Mosier.. 09/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper low resulting from interaction between Tropical Cyclone Helene and a mid-latitude cyclone will begin the period over the Lower OH Valley. Some very modest eastward progression of this system is forecast throughout the day. A surface low will be stacked beneath the upper low, with modest low-level moisture arcing cyclonically around this low from GA and Carolinas into the OH Valley. Despite the presence of this low-level moisture, relatively warm profiles will promote stable conditions, and deep convection is not anticipated. Farther south across the FL Peninsula, ample low-level moisture (i.e. dewpoints in the mid 70s) will help support modest buoyancy as temperatures warm into the upper 80s/low 90s amid strong daytime heating. Weak low-level convergence will foster afternoon thunderstorm development within this destabilized airmass. Weak shear should keep the severe-thunderstorm potential low. Expansive upper ridging that covers much of the Southwest and extends into the northern Plains is forecast to remain largely in place on Saturday. Modest moisture, characterized by PW values near 0.75", is expected beneath this ridging from the Four Corners vicinity into the central/southern Rockies. Some deeper convection is possible during peak heating across the southern Rockies, but forecast soundings suggest most convection will not be deep enough for charge separation except perhaps on an isolated basis. Thunderstorm potential should remain below 10%. ..Mosier.. 09/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper low resulting from interaction between Tropical Cyclone Helene and a mid-latitude cyclone will begin the period over the Lower OH Valley. Some very modest eastward progression of this system is forecast throughout the day. A surface low will be stacked beneath the upper low, with modest low-level moisture arcing cyclonically around this low from GA and Carolinas into the OH Valley. Despite the presence of this low-level moisture, relatively warm profiles will promote stable conditions, and deep convection is not anticipated. Farther south across the FL Peninsula, ample low-level moisture (i.e. dewpoints in the mid 70s) will help support modest buoyancy as temperatures warm into the upper 80s/low 90s amid strong daytime heating. Weak low-level convergence will foster afternoon thunderstorm development within this destabilized airmass. Weak shear should keep the severe-thunderstorm potential low. Expansive upper ridging that covers much of the Southwest and extends into the northern Plains is forecast to remain largely in place on Saturday. Modest moisture, characterized by PW values near 0.75", is expected beneath this ridging from the Four Corners vicinity into the central/southern Rockies. Some deeper convection is possible during peak heating across the southern Rockies, but forecast soundings suggest most convection will not be deep enough for charge separation except perhaps on an isolated basis. Thunderstorm potential should remain below 10%. ..Mosier.. 09/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper low resulting from interaction between Tropical Cyclone Helene and a mid-latitude cyclone will begin the period over the Lower OH Valley. Some very modest eastward progression of this system is forecast throughout the day. A surface low will be stacked beneath the upper low, with modest low-level moisture arcing cyclonically around this low from GA and Carolinas into the OH Valley. Despite the presence of this low-level moisture, relatively warm profiles will promote stable conditions, and deep convection is not anticipated. Farther south across the FL Peninsula, ample low-level moisture (i.e. dewpoints in the mid 70s) will help support modest buoyancy as temperatures warm into the upper 80s/low 90s amid strong daytime heating. Weak low-level convergence will foster afternoon thunderstorm development within this destabilized airmass. Weak shear should keep the severe-thunderstorm potential low. Expansive upper ridging that covers much of the Southwest and extends into the northern Plains is forecast to remain largely in place on Saturday. Modest moisture, characterized by PW values near 0.75", is expected beneath this ridging from the Four Corners vicinity into the central/southern Rockies. Some deeper convection is possible during peak heating across the southern Rockies, but forecast soundings suggest most convection will not be deep enough for charge separation except perhaps on an isolated basis. Thunderstorm potential should remain below 10%. ..Mosier.. 09/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper low resulting from interaction between Tropical Cyclone Helene and a mid-latitude cyclone will begin the period over the Lower OH Valley. Some very modest eastward progression of this system is forecast throughout the day. A surface low will be stacked beneath the upper low, with modest low-level moisture arcing cyclonically around this low from GA and Carolinas into the OH Valley. Despite the presence of this low-level moisture, relatively warm profiles will promote stable conditions, and deep convection is not anticipated. Farther south across the FL Peninsula, ample low-level moisture (i.e. dewpoints in the mid 70s) will help support modest buoyancy as temperatures warm into the upper 80s/low 90s amid strong daytime heating. Weak low-level convergence will foster afternoon thunderstorm development within this destabilized airmass. Weak shear should keep the severe-thunderstorm potential low. Expansive upper ridging that covers much of the Southwest and extends into the northern Plains is forecast to remain largely in place on Saturday. Modest moisture, characterized by PW values near 0.75", is expected beneath this ridging from the Four Corners vicinity into the central/southern Rockies. Some deeper convection is possible during peak heating across the southern Rockies, but forecast soundings suggest most convection will not be deep enough for charge separation except perhaps on an isolated basis. Thunderstorm potential should remain below 10%. ..Mosier.. 09/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper low resulting from interaction between Tropical Cyclone Helene and a mid-latitude cyclone will begin the period over the Lower OH Valley. Some very modest eastward progression of this system is forecast throughout the day. A surface low will be stacked beneath the upper low, with modest low-level moisture arcing cyclonically around this low from GA and Carolinas into the OH Valley. Despite the presence of this low-level moisture, relatively warm profiles will promote stable conditions, and deep convection is not anticipated. Farther south across the FL Peninsula, ample low-level moisture (i.e. dewpoints in the mid 70s) will help support modest buoyancy as temperatures warm into the upper 80s/low 90s amid strong daytime heating. Weak low-level convergence will foster afternoon thunderstorm development within this destabilized airmass. Weak shear should keep the severe-thunderstorm potential low. Expansive upper ridging that covers much of the Southwest and extends into the northern Plains is forecast to remain largely in place on Saturday. Modest moisture, characterized by PW values near 0.75", is expected beneath this ridging from the Four Corners vicinity into the central/southern Rockies. Some deeper convection is possible during peak heating across the southern Rockies, but forecast soundings suggest most convection will not be deep enough for charge separation except perhaps on an isolated basis. Thunderstorm potential should remain below 10%. ..Mosier.. 09/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper low resulting from interaction between Tropical Cyclone Helene and a mid-latitude cyclone will begin the period over the Lower OH Valley. Some very modest eastward progression of this system is forecast throughout the day. A surface low will be stacked beneath the upper low, with modest low-level moisture arcing cyclonically around this low from GA and Carolinas into the OH Valley. Despite the presence of this low-level moisture, relatively warm profiles will promote stable conditions, and deep convection is not anticipated. Farther south across the FL Peninsula, ample low-level moisture (i.e. dewpoints in the mid 70s) will help support modest buoyancy as temperatures warm into the upper 80s/low 90s amid strong daytime heating. Weak low-level convergence will foster afternoon thunderstorm development within this destabilized airmass. Weak shear should keep the severe-thunderstorm potential low. Expansive upper ridging that covers much of the Southwest and extends into the northern Plains is forecast to remain largely in place on Saturday. Modest moisture, characterized by PW values near 0.75", is expected beneath this ridging from the Four Corners vicinity into the central/southern Rockies. Some deeper convection is possible during peak heating across the southern Rockies, but forecast soundings suggest most convection will not be deep enough for charge separation except perhaps on an isolated basis. Thunderstorm potential should remain below 10%. ..Mosier.. 09/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper low resulting from interaction between Tropical Cyclone Helene and a mid-latitude cyclone will begin the period over the Lower OH Valley. Some very modest eastward progression of this system is forecast throughout the day. A surface low will be stacked beneath the upper low, with modest low-level moisture arcing cyclonically around this low from GA and Carolinas into the OH Valley. Despite the presence of this low-level moisture, relatively warm profiles will promote stable conditions, and deep convection is not anticipated. Farther south across the FL Peninsula, ample low-level moisture (i.e. dewpoints in the mid 70s) will help support modest buoyancy as temperatures warm into the upper 80s/low 90s amid strong daytime heating. Weak low-level convergence will foster afternoon thunderstorm development within this destabilized airmass. Weak shear should keep the severe-thunderstorm potential low. Expansive upper ridging that covers much of the Southwest and extends into the northern Plains is forecast to remain largely in place on Saturday. Modest moisture, characterized by PW values near 0.75", is expected beneath this ridging from the Four Corners vicinity into the central/southern Rockies. Some deeper convection is possible during peak heating across the southern Rockies, but forecast soundings suggest most convection will not be deep enough for charge separation except perhaps on an isolated basis. Thunderstorm potential should remain below 10%. ..Mosier.. 09/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper low resulting from interaction between Tropical Cyclone Helene and a mid-latitude cyclone will begin the period over the Lower OH Valley. Some very modest eastward progression of this system is forecast throughout the day. A surface low will be stacked beneath the upper low, with modest low-level moisture arcing cyclonically around this low from GA and Carolinas into the OH Valley. Despite the presence of this low-level moisture, relatively warm profiles will promote stable conditions, and deep convection is not anticipated. Farther south across the FL Peninsula, ample low-level moisture (i.e. dewpoints in the mid 70s) will help support modest buoyancy as temperatures warm into the upper 80s/low 90s amid strong daytime heating. Weak low-level convergence will foster afternoon thunderstorm development within this destabilized airmass. Weak shear should keep the severe-thunderstorm potential low. Expansive upper ridging that covers much of the Southwest and extends into the northern Plains is forecast to remain largely in place on Saturday. Modest moisture, characterized by PW values near 0.75", is expected beneath this ridging from the Four Corners vicinity into the central/southern Rockies. Some deeper convection is possible during peak heating across the southern Rockies, but forecast soundings suggest most convection will not be deep enough for charge separation except perhaps on an isolated basis. Thunderstorm potential should remain below 10%. ..Mosier.. 09/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper low resulting from interaction between Tropical Cyclone Helene and a mid-latitude cyclone will begin the period over the Lower OH Valley. Some very modest eastward progression of this system is forecast throughout the day. A surface low will be stacked beneath the upper low, with modest low-level moisture arcing cyclonically around this low from GA and Carolinas into the OH Valley. Despite the presence of this low-level moisture, relatively warm profiles will promote stable conditions, and deep convection is not anticipated. Farther south across the FL Peninsula, ample low-level moisture (i.e. dewpoints in the mid 70s) will help support modest buoyancy as temperatures warm into the upper 80s/low 90s amid strong daytime heating. Weak low-level convergence will foster afternoon thunderstorm development within this destabilized airmass. Weak shear should keep the severe-thunderstorm potential low. Expansive upper ridging that covers much of the Southwest and extends into the northern Plains is forecast to remain largely in place on Saturday. Modest moisture, characterized by PW values near 0.75", is expected beneath this ridging from the Four Corners vicinity into the central/southern Rockies. Some deeper convection is possible during peak heating across the southern Rockies, but forecast soundings suggest most convection will not be deep enough for charge separation except perhaps on an isolated basis. Thunderstorm potential should remain below 10%. ..Mosier.. 09/27/2024 Read more

WW 0688 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 688 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE CRE TO 25 WNW GSB TO 30 N RDU TO 15 W DAN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2125. ..GRAMS..09/27/24 ATTN...WFO...RAH...MHX...AKQ...ILM...GSP...RNK...CAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 688 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC013-015-017-019-029-031-041-047-049-053-055-061-065-069-073- 077-079-083-091-095-101-103-107-117-127-129-131-133-137-139-141- 143-147-163-177-181-183-185-187-191-195-271740- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAUFORT BERTIE BLADEN BRUNSWICK CAMDEN CARTERET CHOWAN COLUMBUS CRAVEN CURRITUCK DARE DUPLIN EDGECOMBE FRANKLIN GATES GRANVILLE GREENE HALIFAX HERTFORD HYDE JOHNSTON JONES LENOIR MARTIN NASH NEW HANOVER NORTHAMPTON ONSLOW PAMLICO PASQUOTANK PENDER PERQUIMANS PITT SAMPSON TYRRELL VANCE WAKE WARREN WASHINGTON WAYNE WILSON Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes will be possible this afternoon across parts of North Carolina and Virginia. ...Synopsis... The center of Helene is tracking quickly northward across the mountains over western NC/east TN, with a band of strong convection to the east of the low extending from southern VA into eastern NC. Local VAD profiles, surface observations, and model guidance indicate a continuing very favorable environment for transient rotating updrafts along this line and the risk of a few tornadoes. Guidance suggests that low-level wind shear will slowly weaken this afternoon throughout the northeastern quadrant of the system, with the line of convection lifting northeastward into a progressively less moist air mass. Little diurnal heating is expected ahead of the line, limiting destabilization. These trends would suggest the overall risk of tornadoes will also slowly weaken by evening. ..Hart/Weinman.. 09/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes will be possible this afternoon across parts of North Carolina and Virginia. ...Synopsis... The center of Helene is tracking quickly northward across the mountains over western NC/east TN, with a band of strong convection to the east of the low extending from southern VA into eastern NC. Local VAD profiles, surface observations, and model guidance indicate a continuing very favorable environment for transient rotating updrafts along this line and the risk of a few tornadoes. Guidance suggests that low-level wind shear will slowly weaken this afternoon throughout the northeastern quadrant of the system, with the line of convection lifting northeastward into a progressively less moist air mass. Little diurnal heating is expected ahead of the line, limiting destabilization. These trends would suggest the overall risk of tornadoes will also slowly weaken by evening. ..Hart/Weinman.. 09/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes will be possible this afternoon across parts of North Carolina and Virginia. ...Synopsis... The center of Helene is tracking quickly northward across the mountains over western NC/east TN, with a band of strong convection to the east of the low extending from southern VA into eastern NC. Local VAD profiles, surface observations, and model guidance indicate a continuing very favorable environment for transient rotating updrafts along this line and the risk of a few tornadoes. Guidance suggests that low-level wind shear will slowly weaken this afternoon throughout the northeastern quadrant of the system, with the line of convection lifting northeastward into a progressively less moist air mass. Little diurnal heating is expected ahead of the line, limiting destabilization. These trends would suggest the overall risk of tornadoes will also slowly weaken by evening. ..Hart/Weinman.. 09/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes will be possible this afternoon across parts of North Carolina and Virginia. ...Synopsis... The center of Helene is tracking quickly northward across the mountains over western NC/east TN, with a band of strong convection to the east of the low extending from southern VA into eastern NC. Local VAD profiles, surface observations, and model guidance indicate a continuing very favorable environment for transient rotating updrafts along this line and the risk of a few tornadoes. Guidance suggests that low-level wind shear will slowly weaken this afternoon throughout the northeastern quadrant of the system, with the line of convection lifting northeastward into a progressively less moist air mass. Little diurnal heating is expected ahead of the line, limiting destabilization. These trends would suggest the overall risk of tornadoes will also slowly weaken by evening. ..Hart/Weinman.. 09/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes will be possible this afternoon across parts of North Carolina and Virginia. ...Synopsis... The center of Helene is tracking quickly northward across the mountains over western NC/east TN, with a band of strong convection to the east of the low extending from southern VA into eastern NC. Local VAD profiles, surface observations, and model guidance indicate a continuing very favorable environment for transient rotating updrafts along this line and the risk of a few tornadoes. Guidance suggests that low-level wind shear will slowly weaken this afternoon throughout the northeastern quadrant of the system, with the line of convection lifting northeastward into a progressively less moist air mass. Little diurnal heating is expected ahead of the line, limiting destabilization. These trends would suggest the overall risk of tornadoes will also slowly weaken by evening. ..Hart/Weinman.. 09/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes will be possible this afternoon across parts of North Carolina and Virginia. ...Synopsis... The center of Helene is tracking quickly northward across the mountains over western NC/east TN, with a band of strong convection to the east of the low extending from southern VA into eastern NC. Local VAD profiles, surface observations, and model guidance indicate a continuing very favorable environment for transient rotating updrafts along this line and the risk of a few tornadoes. Guidance suggests that low-level wind shear will slowly weaken this afternoon throughout the northeastern quadrant of the system, with the line of convection lifting northeastward into a progressively less moist air mass. Little diurnal heating is expected ahead of the line, limiting destabilization. These trends would suggest the overall risk of tornadoes will also slowly weaken by evening. ..Hart/Weinman.. 09/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes will be possible this afternoon across parts of North Carolina and Virginia. ...Synopsis... The center of Helene is tracking quickly northward across the mountains over western NC/east TN, with a band of strong convection to the east of the low extending from southern VA into eastern NC. Local VAD profiles, surface observations, and model guidance indicate a continuing very favorable environment for transient rotating updrafts along this line and the risk of a few tornadoes. Guidance suggests that low-level wind shear will slowly weaken this afternoon throughout the northeastern quadrant of the system, with the line of convection lifting northeastward into a progressively less moist air mass. Little diurnal heating is expected ahead of the line, limiting destabilization. These trends would suggest the overall risk of tornadoes will also slowly weaken by evening. ..Hart/Weinman.. 09/27/2024 Read more