Severe Storms

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely on Sunday. ...Synopsis... The upper-level low across the lower Ohio Valley will continue to weaken on Sunday. A stronger upper-level trough will move eastward across the northern Rockies into the northern Plains. At the surface, weak southerly flow will bring some moisture northward into parts of the Carolinas. A few thunderstorms are possible from Florida into areas near the Southeast Coast. Some drier air aloft is expected to move into central/eastern North Carolina. Models suggest this area may experience enough surface heating to promote around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Though weakening with time, mid-level southwesterly winds will be around 40-45 kts during the afternoon. A stronger storm or two is possible. However, forcing will be nebulous and thermodynamic profiles show continued warm-core system characteristics/influences (i.e., weak lapse rates aloft, subsidence at upper levels). Updrafts will likely struggle in these conditions and severe weather appears unlikely at this time. ..Wendt.. 09/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely on Sunday. ...Synopsis... The upper-level low across the lower Ohio Valley will continue to weaken on Sunday. A stronger upper-level trough will move eastward across the northern Rockies into the northern Plains. At the surface, weak southerly flow will bring some moisture northward into parts of the Carolinas. A few thunderstorms are possible from Florida into areas near the Southeast Coast. Some drier air aloft is expected to move into central/eastern North Carolina. Models suggest this area may experience enough surface heating to promote around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Though weakening with time, mid-level southwesterly winds will be around 40-45 kts during the afternoon. A stronger storm or two is possible. However, forcing will be nebulous and thermodynamic profiles show continued warm-core system characteristics/influences (i.e., weak lapse rates aloft, subsidence at upper levels). Updrafts will likely struggle in these conditions and severe weather appears unlikely at this time. ..Wendt.. 09/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely on Sunday. ...Synopsis... The upper-level low across the lower Ohio Valley will continue to weaken on Sunday. A stronger upper-level trough will move eastward across the northern Rockies into the northern Plains. At the surface, weak southerly flow will bring some moisture northward into parts of the Carolinas. A few thunderstorms are possible from Florida into areas near the Southeast Coast. Some drier air aloft is expected to move into central/eastern North Carolina. Models suggest this area may experience enough surface heating to promote around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Though weakening with time, mid-level southwesterly winds will be around 40-45 kts during the afternoon. A stronger storm or two is possible. However, forcing will be nebulous and thermodynamic profiles show continued warm-core system characteristics/influences (i.e., weak lapse rates aloft, subsidence at upper levels). Updrafts will likely struggle in these conditions and severe weather appears unlikely at this time. ..Wendt.. 09/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely on Sunday. ...Synopsis... The upper-level low across the lower Ohio Valley will continue to weaken on Sunday. A stronger upper-level trough will move eastward across the northern Rockies into the northern Plains. At the surface, weak southerly flow will bring some moisture northward into parts of the Carolinas. A few thunderstorms are possible from Florida into areas near the Southeast Coast. Some drier air aloft is expected to move into central/eastern North Carolina. Models suggest this area may experience enough surface heating to promote around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Though weakening with time, mid-level southwesterly winds will be around 40-45 kts during the afternoon. A stronger storm or two is possible. However, forcing will be nebulous and thermodynamic profiles show continued warm-core system characteristics/influences (i.e., weak lapse rates aloft, subsidence at upper levels). Updrafts will likely struggle in these conditions and severe weather appears unlikely at this time. ..Wendt.. 09/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely on Sunday. ...Synopsis... The upper-level low across the lower Ohio Valley will continue to weaken on Sunday. A stronger upper-level trough will move eastward across the northern Rockies into the northern Plains. At the surface, weak southerly flow will bring some moisture northward into parts of the Carolinas. A few thunderstorms are possible from Florida into areas near the Southeast Coast. Some drier air aloft is expected to move into central/eastern North Carolina. Models suggest this area may experience enough surface heating to promote around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Though weakening with time, mid-level southwesterly winds will be around 40-45 kts during the afternoon. A stronger storm or two is possible. However, forcing will be nebulous and thermodynamic profiles show continued warm-core system characteristics/influences (i.e., weak lapse rates aloft, subsidence at upper levels). Updrafts will likely struggle in these conditions and severe weather appears unlikely at this time. ..Wendt.. 09/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely on Sunday. ...Synopsis... The upper-level low across the lower Ohio Valley will continue to weaken on Sunday. A stronger upper-level trough will move eastward across the northern Rockies into the northern Plains. At the surface, weak southerly flow will bring some moisture northward into parts of the Carolinas. A few thunderstorms are possible from Florida into areas near the Southeast Coast. Some drier air aloft is expected to move into central/eastern North Carolina. Models suggest this area may experience enough surface heating to promote around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Though weakening with time, mid-level southwesterly winds will be around 40-45 kts during the afternoon. A stronger storm or two is possible. However, forcing will be nebulous and thermodynamic profiles show continued warm-core system characteristics/influences (i.e., weak lapse rates aloft, subsidence at upper levels). Updrafts will likely struggle in these conditions and severe weather appears unlikely at this time. ..Wendt.. 09/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely on Sunday. ...Synopsis... The upper-level low across the lower Ohio Valley will continue to weaken on Sunday. A stronger upper-level trough will move eastward across the northern Rockies into the northern Plains. At the surface, weak southerly flow will bring some moisture northward into parts of the Carolinas. A few thunderstorms are possible from Florida into areas near the Southeast Coast. Some drier air aloft is expected to move into central/eastern North Carolina. Models suggest this area may experience enough surface heating to promote around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Though weakening with time, mid-level southwesterly winds will be around 40-45 kts during the afternoon. A stronger storm or two is possible. However, forcing will be nebulous and thermodynamic profiles show continued warm-core system characteristics/influences (i.e., weak lapse rates aloft, subsidence at upper levels). Updrafts will likely struggle in these conditions and severe weather appears unlikely at this time. ..Wendt.. 09/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely on Sunday. ...Synopsis... The upper-level low across the lower Ohio Valley will continue to weaken on Sunday. A stronger upper-level trough will move eastward across the northern Rockies into the northern Plains. At the surface, weak southerly flow will bring some moisture northward into parts of the Carolinas. A few thunderstorms are possible from Florida into areas near the Southeast Coast. Some drier air aloft is expected to move into central/eastern North Carolina. Models suggest this area may experience enough surface heating to promote around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Though weakening with time, mid-level southwesterly winds will be around 40-45 kts during the afternoon. A stronger storm or two is possible. However, forcing will be nebulous and thermodynamic profiles show continued warm-core system characteristics/influences (i.e., weak lapse rates aloft, subsidence at upper levels). Updrafts will likely struggle in these conditions and severe weather appears unlikely at this time. ..Wendt.. 09/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely on Sunday. ...Synopsis... The upper-level low across the lower Ohio Valley will continue to weaken on Sunday. A stronger upper-level trough will move eastward across the northern Rockies into the northern Plains. At the surface, weak southerly flow will bring some moisture northward into parts of the Carolinas. A few thunderstorms are possible from Florida into areas near the Southeast Coast. Some drier air aloft is expected to move into central/eastern North Carolina. Models suggest this area may experience enough surface heating to promote around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Though weakening with time, mid-level southwesterly winds will be around 40-45 kts during the afternoon. A stronger storm or two is possible. However, forcing will be nebulous and thermodynamic profiles show continued warm-core system characteristics/influences (i.e., weak lapse rates aloft, subsidence at upper levels). Updrafts will likely struggle in these conditions and severe weather appears unlikely at this time. ..Wendt.. 09/27/2024 Read more

WW 0686 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 686 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 E DAB TO 30 WNW DAB TO 30 N GNV TO 40 WSW VDI. ..BROYLES..09/27/24 ATTN...WFO...JAX...MLB...TBW...TAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 686 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC003-007-019-031-035-089-107-109-125-270740- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAKER BRADFORD CLAY DUVAL FLAGLER NASSAU PUTNAM ST. JOHNS UNION GAC001-005-025-039-049-127-161-229-299-305-270740- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE APPLING BACON BRANTLEY CAMDEN CHARLTON GLYNN JEFF DAVIS PIERCE WARE WAYNE AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-550-270740- CW Read more

WW 0686 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 686 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 E DAB TO 30 WNW DAB TO 30 N GNV TO 40 WSW VDI. ..BROYLES..09/27/24 ATTN...WFO...JAX...MLB...TBW...TAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 686 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC003-007-019-031-035-089-107-109-125-270740- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAKER BRADFORD CLAY DUVAL FLAGLER NASSAU PUTNAM ST. JOHNS UNION GAC001-005-025-039-049-127-161-229-299-305-270740- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE APPLING BACON BRANTLEY CAMDEN CHARLTON GLYNN JEFF DAVIS PIERCE WARE WAYNE AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-550-270740- CW Read more

MD 2122 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 686...687... FOR NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO THE CAROLINAS
Mesoscale Discussion 2122 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1146 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Areas affected...northern Florida into the Carolinas Concerning...Tornado Watch 686...687... Valid 270446Z - 270645Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 686, 687 continues. SUMMARY...The environment remains conditionally favorable for supercells producing tornadoes, primary over southeast Georgia into South Carolina. DISCUSSION...Unstable air continues to wrap northwestward ahead of Helene, with the high theta-e air mass now inland across eastern SC and GA. Very strong gusts continue into the Jacksonville FL area within the well-mixed boundary layer where temperatures are in the 80s F. Dewpoints are also averaging 78- 80 F along the coast farther north. While severe cell coverage has decreased compared to a few hours ago, conditions remain quite favorable for tornadoes should additional bands of storms form. This is quite possible through tonight as low-level flow remains confluent. In addition, the high dewpoints will easily favor development with relatively minimal lift. As such, the tornado watch will continue from GA into southern NC for some time. Areas to the south into central FL should eventually see a waning threat as convergence weakens due to the system pulling rapidly north. ..Jewell.. 09/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...MLB...GSP...TBW...JAX... FFC...TAE... LAT...LON 30798131 29768122 28258158 27838200 27628254 27748280 28178285 28728277 29328280 29878249 30448244 30998268 31528316 32148319 32758283 33418224 34238159 34678111 34888007 34767914 34477855 33857838 33507889 33057918 32557994 32148048 31728102 30798131 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis... The upper-level low across the Ohio Valley will be in the process of weakening on Saturday. There will be a lingering mid-level jet across parts of Southeast into the southern Appalachians. However, dry air wrapping into the Southeast, along with remaining cloud cover and precipitation, should keep convection shallow and surface-based buoyancy to a minimum. Rich moisture will remain across much of the Florida Peninsula. Sufficient surface heating is expected to promote the development of isolated thunderstorms during the afternoon. Poor lapse rates aloft and the displacement of the stronger mid-level winds well to the north will keep severe potential low with this activity. A pocket of mid-level moisture in the Four Corners vicinity may promote some convection in the higher terrain of south-central Colorado into north-central New Mexico. Forecast soundings suggest most convection will not be deep enough for charge separation except perhaps on an isolated basis. Thunderstorm potential should remain below 10%. ..Wendt.. 09/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis... The upper-level low across the Ohio Valley will be in the process of weakening on Saturday. There will be a lingering mid-level jet across parts of Southeast into the southern Appalachians. However, dry air wrapping into the Southeast, along with remaining cloud cover and precipitation, should keep convection shallow and surface-based buoyancy to a minimum. Rich moisture will remain across much of the Florida Peninsula. Sufficient surface heating is expected to promote the development of isolated thunderstorms during the afternoon. Poor lapse rates aloft and the displacement of the stronger mid-level winds well to the north will keep severe potential low with this activity. A pocket of mid-level moisture in the Four Corners vicinity may promote some convection in the higher terrain of south-central Colorado into north-central New Mexico. Forecast soundings suggest most convection will not be deep enough for charge separation except perhaps on an isolated basis. Thunderstorm potential should remain below 10%. ..Wendt.. 09/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis... The upper-level low across the Ohio Valley will be in the process of weakening on Saturday. There will be a lingering mid-level jet across parts of Southeast into the southern Appalachians. However, dry air wrapping into the Southeast, along with remaining cloud cover and precipitation, should keep convection shallow and surface-based buoyancy to a minimum. Rich moisture will remain across much of the Florida Peninsula. Sufficient surface heating is expected to promote the development of isolated thunderstorms during the afternoon. Poor lapse rates aloft and the displacement of the stronger mid-level winds well to the north will keep severe potential low with this activity. A pocket of mid-level moisture in the Four Corners vicinity may promote some convection in the higher terrain of south-central Colorado into north-central New Mexico. Forecast soundings suggest most convection will not be deep enough for charge separation except perhaps on an isolated basis. Thunderstorm potential should remain below 10%. ..Wendt.. 09/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis... The upper-level low across the Ohio Valley will be in the process of weakening on Saturday. There will be a lingering mid-level jet across parts of Southeast into the southern Appalachians. However, dry air wrapping into the Southeast, along with remaining cloud cover and precipitation, should keep convection shallow and surface-based buoyancy to a minimum. Rich moisture will remain across much of the Florida Peninsula. Sufficient surface heating is expected to promote the development of isolated thunderstorms during the afternoon. Poor lapse rates aloft and the displacement of the stronger mid-level winds well to the north will keep severe potential low with this activity. A pocket of mid-level moisture in the Four Corners vicinity may promote some convection in the higher terrain of south-central Colorado into north-central New Mexico. Forecast soundings suggest most convection will not be deep enough for charge separation except perhaps on an isolated basis. Thunderstorm potential should remain below 10%. ..Wendt.. 09/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis... The upper-level low across the Ohio Valley will be in the process of weakening on Saturday. There will be a lingering mid-level jet across parts of Southeast into the southern Appalachians. However, dry air wrapping into the Southeast, along with remaining cloud cover and precipitation, should keep convection shallow and surface-based buoyancy to a minimum. Rich moisture will remain across much of the Florida Peninsula. Sufficient surface heating is expected to promote the development of isolated thunderstorms during the afternoon. Poor lapse rates aloft and the displacement of the stronger mid-level winds well to the north will keep severe potential low with this activity. A pocket of mid-level moisture in the Four Corners vicinity may promote some convection in the higher terrain of south-central Colorado into north-central New Mexico. Forecast soundings suggest most convection will not be deep enough for charge separation except perhaps on an isolated basis. Thunderstorm potential should remain below 10%. ..Wendt.. 09/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis... The upper-level low across the Ohio Valley will be in the process of weakening on Saturday. There will be a lingering mid-level jet across parts of Southeast into the southern Appalachians. However, dry air wrapping into the Southeast, along with remaining cloud cover and precipitation, should keep convection shallow and surface-based buoyancy to a minimum. Rich moisture will remain across much of the Florida Peninsula. Sufficient surface heating is expected to promote the development of isolated thunderstorms during the afternoon. Poor lapse rates aloft and the displacement of the stronger mid-level winds well to the north will keep severe potential low with this activity. A pocket of mid-level moisture in the Four Corners vicinity may promote some convection in the higher terrain of south-central Colorado into north-central New Mexico. Forecast soundings suggest most convection will not be deep enough for charge separation except perhaps on an isolated basis. Thunderstorm potential should remain below 10%. ..Wendt.. 09/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis... The upper-level low across the Ohio Valley will be in the process of weakening on Saturday. There will be a lingering mid-level jet across parts of Southeast into the southern Appalachians. However, dry air wrapping into the Southeast, along with remaining cloud cover and precipitation, should keep convection shallow and surface-based buoyancy to a minimum. Rich moisture will remain across much of the Florida Peninsula. Sufficient surface heating is expected to promote the development of isolated thunderstorms during the afternoon. Poor lapse rates aloft and the displacement of the stronger mid-level winds well to the north will keep severe potential low with this activity. A pocket of mid-level moisture in the Four Corners vicinity may promote some convection in the higher terrain of south-central Colorado into north-central New Mexico. Forecast soundings suggest most convection will not be deep enough for charge separation except perhaps on an isolated basis. Thunderstorm potential should remain below 10%. ..Wendt.. 09/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis... The upper-level low across the Ohio Valley will be in the process of weakening on Saturday. There will be a lingering mid-level jet across parts of Southeast into the southern Appalachians. However, dry air wrapping into the Southeast, along with remaining cloud cover and precipitation, should keep convection shallow and surface-based buoyancy to a minimum. Rich moisture will remain across much of the Florida Peninsula. Sufficient surface heating is expected to promote the development of isolated thunderstorms during the afternoon. Poor lapse rates aloft and the displacement of the stronger mid-level winds well to the north will keep severe potential low with this activity. A pocket of mid-level moisture in the Four Corners vicinity may promote some convection in the higher terrain of south-central Colorado into north-central New Mexico. Forecast soundings suggest most convection will not be deep enough for charge separation except perhaps on an isolated basis. Thunderstorm potential should remain below 10%. ..Wendt.. 09/27/2024 Read more