Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... On Friday an upper-level ridge will remain in place over the Southwest and Rocky Mountains, while the remnants of Hurricane Helene rotate over the eastern CONUS centered near TN. This pattern will not favor widespread fire weather conditions, as any stronger mid-level flow and associated surface winds, accompanying a high latitude zonal jet streak, are expected to remain over the western and central provinces of Canada. Due to a lack of appreciable rainfall over the northern Great Plains, however, fuels will continue to become more receptive to ignition and spread there. ..Barnes.. 09/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... On Friday an upper-level ridge will remain in place over the Southwest and Rocky Mountains, while the remnants of Hurricane Helene rotate over the eastern CONUS centered near TN. This pattern will not favor widespread fire weather conditions, as any stronger mid-level flow and associated surface winds, accompanying a high latitude zonal jet streak, are expected to remain over the western and central provinces of Canada. Due to a lack of appreciable rainfall over the northern Great Plains, however, fuels will continue to become more receptive to ignition and spread there. ..Barnes.. 09/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... On Friday an upper-level ridge will remain in place over the Southwest and Rocky Mountains, while the remnants of Hurricane Helene rotate over the eastern CONUS centered near TN. This pattern will not favor widespread fire weather conditions, as any stronger mid-level flow and associated surface winds, accompanying a high latitude zonal jet streak, are expected to remain over the western and central provinces of Canada. Due to a lack of appreciable rainfall over the northern Great Plains, however, fuels will continue to become more receptive to ignition and spread there. ..Barnes.. 09/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... On Friday an upper-level ridge will remain in place over the Southwest and Rocky Mountains, while the remnants of Hurricane Helene rotate over the eastern CONUS centered near TN. This pattern will not favor widespread fire weather conditions, as any stronger mid-level flow and associated surface winds, accompanying a high latitude zonal jet streak, are expected to remain over the western and central provinces of Canada. Due to a lack of appreciable rainfall over the northern Great Plains, however, fuels will continue to become more receptive to ignition and spread there. ..Barnes.. 09/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... On Friday an upper-level ridge will remain in place over the Southwest and Rocky Mountains, while the remnants of Hurricane Helene rotate over the eastern CONUS centered near TN. This pattern will not favor widespread fire weather conditions, as any stronger mid-level flow and associated surface winds, accompanying a high latitude zonal jet streak, are expected to remain over the western and central provinces of Canada. Due to a lack of appreciable rainfall over the northern Great Plains, however, fuels will continue to become more receptive to ignition and spread there. ..Barnes.. 09/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... On Friday an upper-level ridge will remain in place over the Southwest and Rocky Mountains, while the remnants of Hurricane Helene rotate over the eastern CONUS centered near TN. This pattern will not favor widespread fire weather conditions, as any stronger mid-level flow and associated surface winds, accompanying a high latitude zonal jet streak, are expected to remain over the western and central provinces of Canada. Due to a lack of appreciable rainfall over the northern Great Plains, however, fuels will continue to become more receptive to ignition and spread there. ..Barnes.. 09/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... On Friday an upper-level ridge will remain in place over the Southwest and Rocky Mountains, while the remnants of Hurricane Helene rotate over the eastern CONUS centered near TN. This pattern will not favor widespread fire weather conditions, as any stronger mid-level flow and associated surface winds, accompanying a high latitude zonal jet streak, are expected to remain over the western and central provinces of Canada. Due to a lack of appreciable rainfall over the northern Great Plains, however, fuels will continue to become more receptive to ignition and spread there. ..Barnes.. 09/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... On Friday an upper-level ridge will remain in place over the Southwest and Rocky Mountains, while the remnants of Hurricane Helene rotate over the eastern CONUS centered near TN. This pattern will not favor widespread fire weather conditions, as any stronger mid-level flow and associated surface winds, accompanying a high latitude zonal jet streak, are expected to remain over the western and central provinces of Canada. Due to a lack of appreciable rainfall over the northern Great Plains, however, fuels will continue to become more receptive to ignition and spread there. ..Barnes.. 09/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... On Friday an upper-level ridge will remain in place over the Southwest and Rocky Mountains, while the remnants of Hurricane Helene rotate over the eastern CONUS centered near TN. This pattern will not favor widespread fire weather conditions, as any stronger mid-level flow and associated surface winds, accompanying a high latitude zonal jet streak, are expected to remain over the western and central provinces of Canada. Due to a lack of appreciable rainfall over the northern Great Plains, however, fuels will continue to become more receptive to ignition and spread there. ..Barnes.. 09/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... On Friday an upper-level ridge will remain in place over the Southwest and Rocky Mountains, while the remnants of Hurricane Helene rotate over the eastern CONUS centered near TN. This pattern will not favor widespread fire weather conditions, as any stronger mid-level flow and associated surface winds, accompanying a high latitude zonal jet streak, are expected to remain over the western and central provinces of Canada. Due to a lack of appreciable rainfall over the northern Great Plains, however, fuels will continue to become more receptive to ignition and spread there. ..Barnes.. 09/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... On Friday an upper-level ridge will remain in place over the Southwest and Rocky Mountains, while the remnants of Hurricane Helene rotate over the eastern CONUS centered near TN. This pattern will not favor widespread fire weather conditions, as any stronger mid-level flow and associated surface winds, accompanying a high latitude zonal jet streak, are expected to remain over the western and central provinces of Canada. Due to a lack of appreciable rainfall over the northern Great Plains, however, fuels will continue to become more receptive to ignition and spread there. ..Barnes.. 09/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0686 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 686 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..JEWELL..09/27/24 ATTN...WFO...JAX...MLB...TBW...TAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 686 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC001-003-007-009-015-017-019-023-027-029-031-035-041-047-049- 053-055-057-065-067-069-071-075-079-081-083-089-095-097-101-103- 105-107-109-115-117-119-121-123-125-127-270440- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALACHUA BAKER BRADFORD BREVARD CHARLOTTE CITRUS CLAY COLUMBIA DESOTO DIXIE DUVAL FLAGLER GILCHRIST HAMILTON HARDEE HERNANDO HIGHLANDS HILLSBOROUGH JEFFERSON LAFAYETTE LAKE LEE LEVY MADISON MANATEE MARION NASSAU ORANGE OSCEOLA PASCO PINELLAS POLK PUTNAM ST. JOHNS SARASOTA SEMINOLE SUMTER SUWANNEE TAYLOR UNION VOLUSIA GAC001-003-005-017-019-025-027-039-049-065-069-071-075-101-127- 155-161-173-185-229-275-277-287-299-305-321-270440- Read more

WW 0686 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 686 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..JEWELL..09/27/24 ATTN...WFO...JAX...MLB...TBW...TAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 686 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC001-003-007-009-015-017-019-023-027-029-031-035-041-047-049- 053-055-057-065-067-069-071-075-079-081-083-089-095-097-101-103- 105-107-109-115-117-119-121-123-125-127-270440- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALACHUA BAKER BRADFORD BREVARD CHARLOTTE CITRUS CLAY COLUMBIA DESOTO DIXIE DUVAL FLAGLER GILCHRIST HAMILTON HARDEE HERNANDO HIGHLANDS HILLSBOROUGH JEFFERSON LAFAYETTE LAKE LEE LEVY MADISON MANATEE MARION NASSAU ORANGE OSCEOLA PASCO PINELLAS POLK PUTNAM ST. JOHNS SARASOTA SEMINOLE SUMTER SUWANNEE TAYLOR UNION VOLUSIA GAC001-003-005-017-019-025-027-039-049-065-069-071-075-101-127- 155-161-173-185-229-275-277-287-299-305-321-270440- Read more

WW 0687 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 687 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..JEWELL..09/27/24 ATTN...WFO...FFC...CHS...CAE...RAH...ILM...GSP... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 687 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS GAC009-021-023-029-031-033-043-051-073-081-091-093-103-107-109- 125-141-153-163-165-167-169-175-179-181-183-189-191-209-235-245- 251-265-267-271-279-283-289-301-303-309-315-317-319-270440- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BALDWIN BIBB BLECKLEY BRYAN BULLOCH BURKE CANDLER CHATHAM COLUMBIA CRISP DODGE DOOLY EFFINGHAM EMANUEL EVANS GLASCOCK HANCOCK HOUSTON JEFFERSON JENKINS JOHNSON JONES LAURENS LIBERTY LINCOLN LONG MCDUFFIE MCINTOSH MONTGOMERY PULASKI RICHMOND SCREVEN TALIAFERRO TATTNALL TELFAIR TOOMBS TREUTLEN TWIGGS WARREN WASHINGTON WHEELER WILCOX WILKES WILKINSON NCC007-017-019-025-047-051-071-093-119-129-141-153-155-163-165- 179-270440- Read more

WW 0687 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 687 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..JEWELL..09/27/24 ATTN...WFO...FFC...CHS...CAE...RAH...ILM...GSP... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 687 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS GAC009-021-023-029-031-033-043-051-073-081-091-093-103-107-109- 125-141-153-163-165-167-169-175-179-181-183-189-191-209-235-245- 251-265-267-271-279-283-289-301-303-309-315-317-319-270440- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BALDWIN BIBB BLECKLEY BRYAN BULLOCH BURKE CANDLER CHATHAM COLUMBIA CRISP DODGE DOOLY EFFINGHAM EMANUEL EVANS GLASCOCK HANCOCK HOUSTON JEFFERSON JENKINS JOHNSON JONES LAURENS LIBERTY LINCOLN LONG MCDUFFIE MCINTOSH MONTGOMERY PULASKI RICHMOND SCREVEN TALIAFERRO TATTNALL TELFAIR TOOMBS TREUTLEN TWIGGS WARREN WASHINGTON WHEELER WILCOX WILKES WILKINSON NCC007-017-019-025-047-051-071-093-119-129-141-153-155-163-165- 179-270440- Read more

MD 2120 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 684... FOR FROM JACKSONVILLE NORTHWARD ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS
Mesoscale Discussion 2120 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0539 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Areas affected...from Jacksonville northward across much of southeast Georgia and the Carolinas Concerning...Tornado Watch 684... Valid 262239Z - 270315Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 684 continues. SUMMARY...The risk of tornadoes is likely to increase/spread northward through tonight across southeast Georgia, eastern South Carolina and southeast North Carolina. An isolated strong tornado cannot be ruled out. DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows a warm front/boundary from southern GA to just off the SC Coast this evening. South of this boundary, deeper tropical moisture exists with upper 70s F to near 80 F dewpoints, and as such, MLCAPE near the coast is already near 1000 J/kg, with larger values over 1500 J/kg off the eastern FL Peninsula. As Hurricane Helene continues northward this evening, wind fields across the region will strengthen, with 850 mb winds increasing dramatically after about 03Z. As such, the surface warm front will move ashore into SC, with further destabilization over parts of southeast GA as well. Effective SRH of 300-500 m2/s2 coincident with the instability axis will be common this evening, with even stronger shear but lower instability along the western fringe of the warm sector. An initial band of convection currently extends into the Jacksonville FL area, and embedded cells could rotate an produce a brief tornado. Additional bands of storms are likely to develop this evening and tonight as the warm advection processes increase. Given such strong shear, an isolated strong tornado cannot be ruled out late. ..Jewell.. 09/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC... LAT...LON 31907960 31088013 30598032 30148070 30028098 30028114 30378167 30598227 30838293 31168292 31708266 32898197 33368153 33958106 34827946 34867847 34767791 34337752 34057749 33697764 32917843 32497896 31907960 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR COASTAL REGIONS OF NORTHEAST FL...GA...SC...AND SOUTHERN NC... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes remain possible through tonight across the coastal Southeast in association with Hurricane Helene. The greatest relative threat is expected across parts of Florida into southeast Georgia, the Midlands and Low Country of South Carolina, and southern North Carolina. ...FL/GA into the Carolinas... Hurricane Helene will be making landfall this evening near the Florida Big Bend region, and continue moving quickly northward across Georgia into the overnight hours, per NHC forecasts. Wind profiles are already favorable for tornadic supercells across a broad region to the east/northeast of Helene, across parts of FL/GA into the Carolinas. Low-level shear/SRH will become extreme later tonight from north FL into eastern GA and the Carolinas, as Helene's large and intense wind field spreads over the region. Low-topped supercells with at least transient rotation are ongoing across parts of FL/GA into the Carolinas, and will likely continue through the evening. CAM guidance generally suggests that one or more bands of supercells will develop and/or persist into the overnight hours across parts of GA/SC and eventually into NC before 12Z Friday morning, in advance of an increasingly prominent midlevel dry slot. Tropical moisture (with dewpoints into the upper 70s F) will also be drawn farther inland during this time period, with MLCAPE increasing to near or above 1000 J/kg across coastal areas, with greater than 500 J/kg farther inland. This environment will support the potential for several nocturnal tornadoes. ..Dean.. 09/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR COASTAL REGIONS OF NORTHEAST FL...GA...SC...AND SOUTHERN NC... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes remain possible through tonight across the coastal Southeast in association with Hurricane Helene. The greatest relative threat is expected across parts of Florida into southeast Georgia, the Midlands and Low Country of South Carolina, and southern North Carolina. ...FL/GA into the Carolinas... Hurricane Helene will be making landfall this evening near the Florida Big Bend region, and continue moving quickly northward across Georgia into the overnight hours, per NHC forecasts. Wind profiles are already favorable for tornadic supercells across a broad region to the east/northeast of Helene, across parts of FL/GA into the Carolinas. Low-level shear/SRH will become extreme later tonight from north FL into eastern GA and the Carolinas, as Helene's large and intense wind field spreads over the region. Low-topped supercells with at least transient rotation are ongoing across parts of FL/GA into the Carolinas, and will likely continue through the evening. CAM guidance generally suggests that one or more bands of supercells will develop and/or persist into the overnight hours across parts of GA/SC and eventually into NC before 12Z Friday morning, in advance of an increasingly prominent midlevel dry slot. Tropical moisture (with dewpoints into the upper 70s F) will also be drawn farther inland during this time period, with MLCAPE increasing to near or above 1000 J/kg across coastal areas, with greater than 500 J/kg farther inland. This environment will support the potential for several nocturnal tornadoes. ..Dean.. 09/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR COASTAL REGIONS OF NORTHEAST FL...GA...SC...AND SOUTHERN NC... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes remain possible through tonight across the coastal Southeast in association with Hurricane Helene. The greatest relative threat is expected across parts of Florida into southeast Georgia, the Midlands and Low Country of South Carolina, and southern North Carolina. ...FL/GA into the Carolinas... Hurricane Helene will be making landfall this evening near the Florida Big Bend region, and continue moving quickly northward across Georgia into the overnight hours, per NHC forecasts. Wind profiles are already favorable for tornadic supercells across a broad region to the east/northeast of Helene, across parts of FL/GA into the Carolinas. Low-level shear/SRH will become extreme later tonight from north FL into eastern GA and the Carolinas, as Helene's large and intense wind field spreads over the region. Low-topped supercells with at least transient rotation are ongoing across parts of FL/GA into the Carolinas, and will likely continue through the evening. CAM guidance generally suggests that one or more bands of supercells will develop and/or persist into the overnight hours across parts of GA/SC and eventually into NC before 12Z Friday morning, in advance of an increasingly prominent midlevel dry slot. Tropical moisture (with dewpoints into the upper 70s F) will also be drawn farther inland during this time period, with MLCAPE increasing to near or above 1000 J/kg across coastal areas, with greater than 500 J/kg farther inland. This environment will support the potential for several nocturnal tornadoes. ..Dean.. 09/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR COASTAL REGIONS OF NORTHEAST FL...GA...SC...AND SOUTHERN NC... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes remain possible through tonight across the coastal Southeast in association with Hurricane Helene. The greatest relative threat is expected across parts of Florida into southeast Georgia, the Midlands and Low Country of South Carolina, and southern North Carolina. ...FL/GA into the Carolinas... Hurricane Helene will be making landfall this evening near the Florida Big Bend region, and continue moving quickly northward across Georgia into the overnight hours, per NHC forecasts. Wind profiles are already favorable for tornadic supercells across a broad region to the east/northeast of Helene, across parts of FL/GA into the Carolinas. Low-level shear/SRH will become extreme later tonight from north FL into eastern GA and the Carolinas, as Helene's large and intense wind field spreads over the region. Low-topped supercells with at least transient rotation are ongoing across parts of FL/GA into the Carolinas, and will likely continue through the evening. CAM guidance generally suggests that one or more bands of supercells will develop and/or persist into the overnight hours across parts of GA/SC and eventually into NC before 12Z Friday morning, in advance of an increasingly prominent midlevel dry slot. Tropical moisture (with dewpoints into the upper 70s F) will also be drawn farther inland during this time period, with MLCAPE increasing to near or above 1000 J/kg across coastal areas, with greater than 500 J/kg farther inland. This environment will support the potential for several nocturnal tornadoes. ..Dean.. 09/27/2024 Read more