Severe Storms

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0406 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 041200Z Along the northern periphery of an expansive midlevel anticyclone centered over the Four Corners vicinity, a midlevel trough -- accompanied by strong deep-layer westerly flow -- will track eastward from the Pacific Northwest across the northern Plains/Upper MS Valley through Day 6/Tuesday. Thereafter, an additional midlevel trough will advance eastward across the Northwest. On Day 4/Sunday, strong westerly flow accompanying the midlevel trough will cross the Northwest, promoting locally dry/windy conditions along/east of the Cascades. While this could favor elevated to perhaps locally critical fire-weather conditions, cool post-frontal surface temperatures limits confidence in the overlap of strong winds and warm/dry conditions. Farther east, lee troughing over the High Plains will favor dry/breezy conditions over the central Rockies and Plains. Similarly, confidence in the overlap of the strongest winds and low RH is currently too low to add Critical probabilities at this time. By Day 5/Monday, a swath of strong post-frontal surface winds will overspread the northern/central Plains, with an associated increase in fire-weather concerns where fuels are dry. 40-percent Critical probabilities have been added where confidence is highest in the overlap of strong winds and low RH. Thereafter, the strong westerly flow aloft across the northern CONUS could support additional fire-weather concerns -- especially across portions of the central Rockies/Plains. However, the details are unclear at this time. ..Weinman.. 09/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0406 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 041200Z Along the northern periphery of an expansive midlevel anticyclone centered over the Four Corners vicinity, a midlevel trough -- accompanied by strong deep-layer westerly flow -- will track eastward from the Pacific Northwest across the northern Plains/Upper MS Valley through Day 6/Tuesday. Thereafter, an additional midlevel trough will advance eastward across the Northwest. On Day 4/Sunday, strong westerly flow accompanying the midlevel trough will cross the Northwest, promoting locally dry/windy conditions along/east of the Cascades. While this could favor elevated to perhaps locally critical fire-weather conditions, cool post-frontal surface temperatures limits confidence in the overlap of strong winds and warm/dry conditions. Farther east, lee troughing over the High Plains will favor dry/breezy conditions over the central Rockies and Plains. Similarly, confidence in the overlap of the strongest winds and low RH is currently too low to add Critical probabilities at this time. By Day 5/Monday, a swath of strong post-frontal surface winds will overspread the northern/central Plains, with an associated increase in fire-weather concerns where fuels are dry. 40-percent Critical probabilities have been added where confidence is highest in the overlap of strong winds and low RH. Thereafter, the strong westerly flow aloft across the northern CONUS could support additional fire-weather concerns -- especially across portions of the central Rockies/Plains. However, the details are unclear at this time. ..Weinman.. 09/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0406 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 041200Z Along the northern periphery of an expansive midlevel anticyclone centered over the Four Corners vicinity, a midlevel trough -- accompanied by strong deep-layer westerly flow -- will track eastward from the Pacific Northwest across the northern Plains/Upper MS Valley through Day 6/Tuesday. Thereafter, an additional midlevel trough will advance eastward across the Northwest. On Day 4/Sunday, strong westerly flow accompanying the midlevel trough will cross the Northwest, promoting locally dry/windy conditions along/east of the Cascades. While this could favor elevated to perhaps locally critical fire-weather conditions, cool post-frontal surface temperatures limits confidence in the overlap of strong winds and warm/dry conditions. Farther east, lee troughing over the High Plains will favor dry/breezy conditions over the central Rockies and Plains. Similarly, confidence in the overlap of the strongest winds and low RH is currently too low to add Critical probabilities at this time. By Day 5/Monday, a swath of strong post-frontal surface winds will overspread the northern/central Plains, with an associated increase in fire-weather concerns where fuels are dry. 40-percent Critical probabilities have been added where confidence is highest in the overlap of strong winds and low RH. Thereafter, the strong westerly flow aloft across the northern CONUS could support additional fire-weather concerns -- especially across portions of the central Rockies/Plains. However, the details are unclear at this time. ..Weinman.. 09/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0406 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 041200Z Along the northern periphery of an expansive midlevel anticyclone centered over the Four Corners vicinity, a midlevel trough -- accompanied by strong deep-layer westerly flow -- will track eastward from the Pacific Northwest across the northern Plains/Upper MS Valley through Day 6/Tuesday. Thereafter, an additional midlevel trough will advance eastward across the Northwest. On Day 4/Sunday, strong westerly flow accompanying the midlevel trough will cross the Northwest, promoting locally dry/windy conditions along/east of the Cascades. While this could favor elevated to perhaps locally critical fire-weather conditions, cool post-frontal surface temperatures limits confidence in the overlap of strong winds and warm/dry conditions. Farther east, lee troughing over the High Plains will favor dry/breezy conditions over the central Rockies and Plains. Similarly, confidence in the overlap of the strongest winds and low RH is currently too low to add Critical probabilities at this time. By Day 5/Monday, a swath of strong post-frontal surface winds will overspread the northern/central Plains, with an associated increase in fire-weather concerns where fuels are dry. 40-percent Critical probabilities have been added where confidence is highest in the overlap of strong winds and low RH. Thereafter, the strong westerly flow aloft across the northern CONUS could support additional fire-weather concerns -- especially across portions of the central Rockies/Plains. However, the details are unclear at this time. ..Weinman.. 09/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0406 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 041200Z Along the northern periphery of an expansive midlevel anticyclone centered over the Four Corners vicinity, a midlevel trough -- accompanied by strong deep-layer westerly flow -- will track eastward from the Pacific Northwest across the northern Plains/Upper MS Valley through Day 6/Tuesday. Thereafter, an additional midlevel trough will advance eastward across the Northwest. On Day 4/Sunday, strong westerly flow accompanying the midlevel trough will cross the Northwest, promoting locally dry/windy conditions along/east of the Cascades. While this could favor elevated to perhaps locally critical fire-weather conditions, cool post-frontal surface temperatures limits confidence in the overlap of strong winds and warm/dry conditions. Farther east, lee troughing over the High Plains will favor dry/breezy conditions over the central Rockies and Plains. Similarly, confidence in the overlap of the strongest winds and low RH is currently too low to add Critical probabilities at this time. By Day 5/Monday, a swath of strong post-frontal surface winds will overspread the northern/central Plains, with an associated increase in fire-weather concerns where fuels are dry. 40-percent Critical probabilities have been added where confidence is highest in the overlap of strong winds and low RH. Thereafter, the strong westerly flow aloft across the northern CONUS could support additional fire-weather concerns -- especially across portions of the central Rockies/Plains. However, the details are unclear at this time. ..Weinman.. 09/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0406 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 041200Z Along the northern periphery of an expansive midlevel anticyclone centered over the Four Corners vicinity, a midlevel trough -- accompanied by strong deep-layer westerly flow -- will track eastward from the Pacific Northwest across the northern Plains/Upper MS Valley through Day 6/Tuesday. Thereafter, an additional midlevel trough will advance eastward across the Northwest. On Day 4/Sunday, strong westerly flow accompanying the midlevel trough will cross the Northwest, promoting locally dry/windy conditions along/east of the Cascades. While this could favor elevated to perhaps locally critical fire-weather conditions, cool post-frontal surface temperatures limits confidence in the overlap of strong winds and warm/dry conditions. Farther east, lee troughing over the High Plains will favor dry/breezy conditions over the central Rockies and Plains. Similarly, confidence in the overlap of the strongest winds and low RH is currently too low to add Critical probabilities at this time. By Day 5/Monday, a swath of strong post-frontal surface winds will overspread the northern/central Plains, with an associated increase in fire-weather concerns where fuels are dry. 40-percent Critical probabilities have been added where confidence is highest in the overlap of strong winds and low RH. Thereafter, the strong westerly flow aloft across the northern CONUS could support additional fire-weather concerns -- especially across portions of the central Rockies/Plains. However, the details are unclear at this time. ..Weinman.. 09/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0406 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 041200Z Along the northern periphery of an expansive midlevel anticyclone centered over the Four Corners vicinity, a midlevel trough -- accompanied by strong deep-layer westerly flow -- will track eastward from the Pacific Northwest across the northern Plains/Upper MS Valley through Day 6/Tuesday. Thereafter, an additional midlevel trough will advance eastward across the Northwest. On Day 4/Sunday, strong westerly flow accompanying the midlevel trough will cross the Northwest, promoting locally dry/windy conditions along/east of the Cascades. While this could favor elevated to perhaps locally critical fire-weather conditions, cool post-frontal surface temperatures limits confidence in the overlap of strong winds and warm/dry conditions. Farther east, lee troughing over the High Plains will favor dry/breezy conditions over the central Rockies and Plains. Similarly, confidence in the overlap of the strongest winds and low RH is currently too low to add Critical probabilities at this time. By Day 5/Monday, a swath of strong post-frontal surface winds will overspread the northern/central Plains, with an associated increase in fire-weather concerns where fuels are dry. 40-percent Critical probabilities have been added where confidence is highest in the overlap of strong winds and low RH. Thereafter, the strong westerly flow aloft across the northern CONUS could support additional fire-weather concerns -- especially across portions of the central Rockies/Plains. However, the details are unclear at this time. ..Weinman.. 09/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0406 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 041200Z Along the northern periphery of an expansive midlevel anticyclone centered over the Four Corners vicinity, a midlevel trough -- accompanied by strong deep-layer westerly flow -- will track eastward from the Pacific Northwest across the northern Plains/Upper MS Valley through Day 6/Tuesday. Thereafter, an additional midlevel trough will advance eastward across the Northwest. On Day 4/Sunday, strong westerly flow accompanying the midlevel trough will cross the Northwest, promoting locally dry/windy conditions along/east of the Cascades. While this could favor elevated to perhaps locally critical fire-weather conditions, cool post-frontal surface temperatures limits confidence in the overlap of strong winds and warm/dry conditions. Farther east, lee troughing over the High Plains will favor dry/breezy conditions over the central Rockies and Plains. Similarly, confidence in the overlap of the strongest winds and low RH is currently too low to add Critical probabilities at this time. By Day 5/Monday, a swath of strong post-frontal surface winds will overspread the northern/central Plains, with an associated increase in fire-weather concerns where fuels are dry. 40-percent Critical probabilities have been added where confidence is highest in the overlap of strong winds and low RH. Thereafter, the strong westerly flow aloft across the northern CONUS could support additional fire-weather concerns -- especially across portions of the central Rockies/Plains. However, the details are unclear at this time. ..Weinman.. 09/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0406 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 041200Z Along the northern periphery of an expansive midlevel anticyclone centered over the Four Corners vicinity, a midlevel trough -- accompanied by strong deep-layer westerly flow -- will track eastward from the Pacific Northwest across the northern Plains/Upper MS Valley through Day 6/Tuesday. Thereafter, an additional midlevel trough will advance eastward across the Northwest. On Day 4/Sunday, strong westerly flow accompanying the midlevel trough will cross the Northwest, promoting locally dry/windy conditions along/east of the Cascades. While this could favor elevated to perhaps locally critical fire-weather conditions, cool post-frontal surface temperatures limits confidence in the overlap of strong winds and warm/dry conditions. Farther east, lee troughing over the High Plains will favor dry/breezy conditions over the central Rockies and Plains. Similarly, confidence in the overlap of the strongest winds and low RH is currently too low to add Critical probabilities at this time. By Day 5/Monday, a swath of strong post-frontal surface winds will overspread the northern/central Plains, with an associated increase in fire-weather concerns where fuels are dry. 40-percent Critical probabilities have been added where confidence is highest in the overlap of strong winds and low RH. Thereafter, the strong westerly flow aloft across the northern CONUS could support additional fire-weather concerns -- especially across portions of the central Rockies/Plains. However, the details are unclear at this time. ..Weinman.. 09/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0406 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 041200Z Along the northern periphery of an expansive midlevel anticyclone centered over the Four Corners vicinity, a midlevel trough -- accompanied by strong deep-layer westerly flow -- will track eastward from the Pacific Northwest across the northern Plains/Upper MS Valley through Day 6/Tuesday. Thereafter, an additional midlevel trough will advance eastward across the Northwest. On Day 4/Sunday, strong westerly flow accompanying the midlevel trough will cross the Northwest, promoting locally dry/windy conditions along/east of the Cascades. While this could favor elevated to perhaps locally critical fire-weather conditions, cool post-frontal surface temperatures limits confidence in the overlap of strong winds and warm/dry conditions. Farther east, lee troughing over the High Plains will favor dry/breezy conditions over the central Rockies and Plains. Similarly, confidence in the overlap of the strongest winds and low RH is currently too low to add Critical probabilities at this time. By Day 5/Monday, a swath of strong post-frontal surface winds will overspread the northern/central Plains, with an associated increase in fire-weather concerns where fuels are dry. 40-percent Critical probabilities have been added where confidence is highest in the overlap of strong winds and low RH. Thereafter, the strong westerly flow aloft across the northern CONUS could support additional fire-weather concerns -- especially across portions of the central Rockies/Plains. However, the details are unclear at this time. ..Weinman.. 09/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0406 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 041200Z Along the northern periphery of an expansive midlevel anticyclone centered over the Four Corners vicinity, a midlevel trough -- accompanied by strong deep-layer westerly flow -- will track eastward from the Pacific Northwest across the northern Plains/Upper MS Valley through Day 6/Tuesday. Thereafter, an additional midlevel trough will advance eastward across the Northwest. On Day 4/Sunday, strong westerly flow accompanying the midlevel trough will cross the Northwest, promoting locally dry/windy conditions along/east of the Cascades. While this could favor elevated to perhaps locally critical fire-weather conditions, cool post-frontal surface temperatures limits confidence in the overlap of strong winds and warm/dry conditions. Farther east, lee troughing over the High Plains will favor dry/breezy conditions over the central Rockies and Plains. Similarly, confidence in the overlap of the strongest winds and low RH is currently too low to add Critical probabilities at this time. By Day 5/Monday, a swath of strong post-frontal surface winds will overspread the northern/central Plains, with an associated increase in fire-weather concerns where fuels are dry. 40-percent Critical probabilities have been added where confidence is highest in the overlap of strong winds and low RH. Thereafter, the strong westerly flow aloft across the northern CONUS could support additional fire-weather concerns -- especially across portions of the central Rockies/Plains. However, the details are unclear at this time. ..Weinman.. 09/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0406 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 041200Z Along the northern periphery of an expansive midlevel anticyclone centered over the Four Corners vicinity, a midlevel trough -- accompanied by strong deep-layer westerly flow -- will track eastward from the Pacific Northwest across the northern Plains/Upper MS Valley through Day 6/Tuesday. Thereafter, an additional midlevel trough will advance eastward across the Northwest. On Day 4/Sunday, strong westerly flow accompanying the midlevel trough will cross the Northwest, promoting locally dry/windy conditions along/east of the Cascades. While this could favor elevated to perhaps locally critical fire-weather conditions, cool post-frontal surface temperatures limits confidence in the overlap of strong winds and warm/dry conditions. Farther east, lee troughing over the High Plains will favor dry/breezy conditions over the central Rockies and Plains. Similarly, confidence in the overlap of the strongest winds and low RH is currently too low to add Critical probabilities at this time. By Day 5/Monday, a swath of strong post-frontal surface winds will overspread the northern/central Plains, with an associated increase in fire-weather concerns where fuels are dry. 40-percent Critical probabilities have been added where confidence is highest in the overlap of strong winds and low RH. Thereafter, the strong westerly flow aloft across the northern CONUS could support additional fire-weather concerns -- especially across portions of the central Rockies/Plains. However, the details are unclear at this time. ..Weinman.. 09/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0406 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 041200Z Along the northern periphery of an expansive midlevel anticyclone centered over the Four Corners vicinity, a midlevel trough -- accompanied by strong deep-layer westerly flow -- will track eastward from the Pacific Northwest across the northern Plains/Upper MS Valley through Day 6/Tuesday. Thereafter, an additional midlevel trough will advance eastward across the Northwest. On Day 4/Sunday, strong westerly flow accompanying the midlevel trough will cross the Northwest, promoting locally dry/windy conditions along/east of the Cascades. While this could favor elevated to perhaps locally critical fire-weather conditions, cool post-frontal surface temperatures limits confidence in the overlap of strong winds and warm/dry conditions. Farther east, lee troughing over the High Plains will favor dry/breezy conditions over the central Rockies and Plains. Similarly, confidence in the overlap of the strongest winds and low RH is currently too low to add Critical probabilities at this time. By Day 5/Monday, a swath of strong post-frontal surface winds will overspread the northern/central Plains, with an associated increase in fire-weather concerns where fuels are dry. 40-percent Critical probabilities have been added where confidence is highest in the overlap of strong winds and low RH. Thereafter, the strong westerly flow aloft across the northern CONUS could support additional fire-weather concerns -- especially across portions of the central Rockies/Plains. However, the details are unclear at this time. ..Weinman.. 09/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL AREAS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA...GEORGIA...SOUTH CAROLINA...AND FAR SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes remain possible this afternoon into tonight across the coastal Southeast in association with Hurricane Helene. The greatest threat is expected across parts of Florida into southeast Georgia, the Midlands and Low Country of South Carolina, and southern North Carolina. ...20Z... The Day 1 Convective Outlook remains on track. Multiple rainbands with embedded low-topped, rotating storms continue to progress across the FL Panhandle into central GA and SC. As the center of Hurricane Helene approaches the FL coastline later this evening, the vertical wind (and associated shear) profiles should increase further across northern FL into the Carolinas. Large, curved hodographs will support tornado potential with any embedded supercell structures that can develop amid surface-based buoyancy. The latest CAM guidance depicts an arc of low-topped supercells to the northeast of Helene's center moving across central and eastern SC between 06-12Z, when tornado potential will be maximized. If enough surface-based buoyancy can advect inland, a strong tornado could develop closer to the SC coastline. ..Squitieri.. 09/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024/ ...Florida/Georgia into the Carolinas... Hurricane Helene is currently centered about 200 miles southwest of SRQ. This system is characterized by a very broad/expansive wind field, with the VAD profiles at JAX and CLX showing 50 and 35 kt at 2 km, respectively. Stronger low-level winds are already in place across FL. Rotation has been noted in cells both off the central FL Panhandle south of TLH as well as from coastal GA into the SC Low Country. The general trend of rotation within the deeper, more cellular convection is expected to continue throughout the day into the evening across the entire region, with some chance for an increased frequency of rotating cells given the strengthening wind profiles. Best overlap between modest buoyancy and veering low-level wind profiles is still expected to occur from southeast GA northward into coastal SC and far southern NC (i.e. ILM vicinity). For much of this region, the higher dewpoints currently remain offshore, but additional advection inland is anticipated as the system moves northward. This additional low-level moisture should increase buoyancy slightly, which is expected to result in a relatively higher tornado threat. This relatively higher tornado risk is expected from 04Z to 18Z Friday, which bridges the Day 1 and Day 2 periods. As such, additional information regarding the tornado risk for this area can be found in the Day 2 Convective Outlook. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL AREAS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA...GEORGIA...SOUTH CAROLINA...AND FAR SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes remain possible this afternoon into tonight across the coastal Southeast in association with Hurricane Helene. The greatest threat is expected across parts of Florida into southeast Georgia, the Midlands and Low Country of South Carolina, and southern North Carolina. ...20Z... The Day 1 Convective Outlook remains on track. Multiple rainbands with embedded low-topped, rotating storms continue to progress across the FL Panhandle into central GA and SC. As the center of Hurricane Helene approaches the FL coastline later this evening, the vertical wind (and associated shear) profiles should increase further across northern FL into the Carolinas. Large, curved hodographs will support tornado potential with any embedded supercell structures that can develop amid surface-based buoyancy. The latest CAM guidance depicts an arc of low-topped supercells to the northeast of Helene's center moving across central and eastern SC between 06-12Z, when tornado potential will be maximized. If enough surface-based buoyancy can advect inland, a strong tornado could develop closer to the SC coastline. ..Squitieri.. 09/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024/ ...Florida/Georgia into the Carolinas... Hurricane Helene is currently centered about 200 miles southwest of SRQ. This system is characterized by a very broad/expansive wind field, with the VAD profiles at JAX and CLX showing 50 and 35 kt at 2 km, respectively. Stronger low-level winds are already in place across FL. Rotation has been noted in cells both off the central FL Panhandle south of TLH as well as from coastal GA into the SC Low Country. The general trend of rotation within the deeper, more cellular convection is expected to continue throughout the day into the evening across the entire region, with some chance for an increased frequency of rotating cells given the strengthening wind profiles. Best overlap between modest buoyancy and veering low-level wind profiles is still expected to occur from southeast GA northward into coastal SC and far southern NC (i.e. ILM vicinity). For much of this region, the higher dewpoints currently remain offshore, but additional advection inland is anticipated as the system moves northward. This additional low-level moisture should increase buoyancy slightly, which is expected to result in a relatively higher tornado threat. This relatively higher tornado risk is expected from 04Z to 18Z Friday, which bridges the Day 1 and Day 2 periods. As such, additional information regarding the tornado risk for this area can be found in the Day 2 Convective Outlook. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL AREAS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA...GEORGIA...SOUTH CAROLINA...AND FAR SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes remain possible this afternoon into tonight across the coastal Southeast in association with Hurricane Helene. The greatest threat is expected across parts of Florida into southeast Georgia, the Midlands and Low Country of South Carolina, and southern North Carolina. ...20Z... The Day 1 Convective Outlook remains on track. Multiple rainbands with embedded low-topped, rotating storms continue to progress across the FL Panhandle into central GA and SC. As the center of Hurricane Helene approaches the FL coastline later this evening, the vertical wind (and associated shear) profiles should increase further across northern FL into the Carolinas. Large, curved hodographs will support tornado potential with any embedded supercell structures that can develop amid surface-based buoyancy. The latest CAM guidance depicts an arc of low-topped supercells to the northeast of Helene's center moving across central and eastern SC between 06-12Z, when tornado potential will be maximized. If enough surface-based buoyancy can advect inland, a strong tornado could develop closer to the SC coastline. ..Squitieri.. 09/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024/ ...Florida/Georgia into the Carolinas... Hurricane Helene is currently centered about 200 miles southwest of SRQ. This system is characterized by a very broad/expansive wind field, with the VAD profiles at JAX and CLX showing 50 and 35 kt at 2 km, respectively. Stronger low-level winds are already in place across FL. Rotation has been noted in cells both off the central FL Panhandle south of TLH as well as from coastal GA into the SC Low Country. The general trend of rotation within the deeper, more cellular convection is expected to continue throughout the day into the evening across the entire region, with some chance for an increased frequency of rotating cells given the strengthening wind profiles. Best overlap between modest buoyancy and veering low-level wind profiles is still expected to occur from southeast GA northward into coastal SC and far southern NC (i.e. ILM vicinity). For much of this region, the higher dewpoints currently remain offshore, but additional advection inland is anticipated as the system moves northward. This additional low-level moisture should increase buoyancy slightly, which is expected to result in a relatively higher tornado threat. This relatively higher tornado risk is expected from 04Z to 18Z Friday, which bridges the Day 1 and Day 2 periods. As such, additional information regarding the tornado risk for this area can be found in the Day 2 Convective Outlook. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL AREAS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA...GEORGIA...SOUTH CAROLINA...AND FAR SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes remain possible this afternoon into tonight across the coastal Southeast in association with Hurricane Helene. The greatest threat is expected across parts of Florida into southeast Georgia, the Midlands and Low Country of South Carolina, and southern North Carolina. ...20Z... The Day 1 Convective Outlook remains on track. Multiple rainbands with embedded low-topped, rotating storms continue to progress across the FL Panhandle into central GA and SC. As the center of Hurricane Helene approaches the FL coastline later this evening, the vertical wind (and associated shear) profiles should increase further across northern FL into the Carolinas. Large, curved hodographs will support tornado potential with any embedded supercell structures that can develop amid surface-based buoyancy. The latest CAM guidance depicts an arc of low-topped supercells to the northeast of Helene's center moving across central and eastern SC between 06-12Z, when tornado potential will be maximized. If enough surface-based buoyancy can advect inland, a strong tornado could develop closer to the SC coastline. ..Squitieri.. 09/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024/ ...Florida/Georgia into the Carolinas... Hurricane Helene is currently centered about 200 miles southwest of SRQ. This system is characterized by a very broad/expansive wind field, with the VAD profiles at JAX and CLX showing 50 and 35 kt at 2 km, respectively. Stronger low-level winds are already in place across FL. Rotation has been noted in cells both off the central FL Panhandle south of TLH as well as from coastal GA into the SC Low Country. The general trend of rotation within the deeper, more cellular convection is expected to continue throughout the day into the evening across the entire region, with some chance for an increased frequency of rotating cells given the strengthening wind profiles. Best overlap between modest buoyancy and veering low-level wind profiles is still expected to occur from southeast GA northward into coastal SC and far southern NC (i.e. ILM vicinity). For much of this region, the higher dewpoints currently remain offshore, but additional advection inland is anticipated as the system moves northward. This additional low-level moisture should increase buoyancy slightly, which is expected to result in a relatively higher tornado threat. This relatively higher tornado risk is expected from 04Z to 18Z Friday, which bridges the Day 1 and Day 2 periods. As such, additional information regarding the tornado risk for this area can be found in the Day 2 Convective Outlook. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL AREAS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA...GEORGIA...SOUTH CAROLINA...AND FAR SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes remain possible this afternoon into tonight across the coastal Southeast in association with Hurricane Helene. The greatest threat is expected across parts of Florida into southeast Georgia, the Midlands and Low Country of South Carolina, and southern North Carolina. ...20Z... The Day 1 Convective Outlook remains on track. Multiple rainbands with embedded low-topped, rotating storms continue to progress across the FL Panhandle into central GA and SC. As the center of Hurricane Helene approaches the FL coastline later this evening, the vertical wind (and associated shear) profiles should increase further across northern FL into the Carolinas. Large, curved hodographs will support tornado potential with any embedded supercell structures that can develop amid surface-based buoyancy. The latest CAM guidance depicts an arc of low-topped supercells to the northeast of Helene's center moving across central and eastern SC between 06-12Z, when tornado potential will be maximized. If enough surface-based buoyancy can advect inland, a strong tornado could develop closer to the SC coastline. ..Squitieri.. 09/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024/ ...Florida/Georgia into the Carolinas... Hurricane Helene is currently centered about 200 miles southwest of SRQ. This system is characterized by a very broad/expansive wind field, with the VAD profiles at JAX and CLX showing 50 and 35 kt at 2 km, respectively. Stronger low-level winds are already in place across FL. Rotation has been noted in cells both off the central FL Panhandle south of TLH as well as from coastal GA into the SC Low Country. The general trend of rotation within the deeper, more cellular convection is expected to continue throughout the day into the evening across the entire region, with some chance for an increased frequency of rotating cells given the strengthening wind profiles. Best overlap between modest buoyancy and veering low-level wind profiles is still expected to occur from southeast GA northward into coastal SC and far southern NC (i.e. ILM vicinity). For much of this region, the higher dewpoints currently remain offshore, but additional advection inland is anticipated as the system moves northward. This additional low-level moisture should increase buoyancy slightly, which is expected to result in a relatively higher tornado threat. This relatively higher tornado risk is expected from 04Z to 18Z Friday, which bridges the Day 1 and Day 2 periods. As such, additional information regarding the tornado risk for this area can be found in the Day 2 Convective Outlook. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL AREAS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA...GEORGIA...SOUTH CAROLINA...AND FAR SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes remain possible this afternoon into tonight across the coastal Southeast in association with Hurricane Helene. The greatest threat is expected across parts of Florida into southeast Georgia, the Midlands and Low Country of South Carolina, and southern North Carolina. ...20Z... The Day 1 Convective Outlook remains on track. Multiple rainbands with embedded low-topped, rotating storms continue to progress across the FL Panhandle into central GA and SC. As the center of Hurricane Helene approaches the FL coastline later this evening, the vertical wind (and associated shear) profiles should increase further across northern FL into the Carolinas. Large, curved hodographs will support tornado potential with any embedded supercell structures that can develop amid surface-based buoyancy. The latest CAM guidance depicts an arc of low-topped supercells to the northeast of Helene's center moving across central and eastern SC between 06-12Z, when tornado potential will be maximized. If enough surface-based buoyancy can advect inland, a strong tornado could develop closer to the SC coastline. ..Squitieri.. 09/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024/ ...Florida/Georgia into the Carolinas... Hurricane Helene is currently centered about 200 miles southwest of SRQ. This system is characterized by a very broad/expansive wind field, with the VAD profiles at JAX and CLX showing 50 and 35 kt at 2 km, respectively. Stronger low-level winds are already in place across FL. Rotation has been noted in cells both off the central FL Panhandle south of TLH as well as from coastal GA into the SC Low Country. The general trend of rotation within the deeper, more cellular convection is expected to continue throughout the day into the evening across the entire region, with some chance for an increased frequency of rotating cells given the strengthening wind profiles. Best overlap between modest buoyancy and veering low-level wind profiles is still expected to occur from southeast GA northward into coastal SC and far southern NC (i.e. ILM vicinity). For much of this region, the higher dewpoints currently remain offshore, but additional advection inland is anticipated as the system moves northward. This additional low-level moisture should increase buoyancy slightly, which is expected to result in a relatively higher tornado threat. This relatively higher tornado risk is expected from 04Z to 18Z Friday, which bridges the Day 1 and Day 2 periods. As such, additional information regarding the tornado risk for this area can be found in the Day 2 Convective Outlook. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL AREAS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA...GEORGIA...SOUTH CAROLINA...AND FAR SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes remain possible this afternoon into tonight across the coastal Southeast in association with Hurricane Helene. The greatest threat is expected across parts of Florida into southeast Georgia, the Midlands and Low Country of South Carolina, and southern North Carolina. ...20Z... The Day 1 Convective Outlook remains on track. Multiple rainbands with embedded low-topped, rotating storms continue to progress across the FL Panhandle into central GA and SC. As the center of Hurricane Helene approaches the FL coastline later this evening, the vertical wind (and associated shear) profiles should increase further across northern FL into the Carolinas. Large, curved hodographs will support tornado potential with any embedded supercell structures that can develop amid surface-based buoyancy. The latest CAM guidance depicts an arc of low-topped supercells to the northeast of Helene's center moving across central and eastern SC between 06-12Z, when tornado potential will be maximized. If enough surface-based buoyancy can advect inland, a strong tornado could develop closer to the SC coastline. ..Squitieri.. 09/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024/ ...Florida/Georgia into the Carolinas... Hurricane Helene is currently centered about 200 miles southwest of SRQ. This system is characterized by a very broad/expansive wind field, with the VAD profiles at JAX and CLX showing 50 and 35 kt at 2 km, respectively. Stronger low-level winds are already in place across FL. Rotation has been noted in cells both off the central FL Panhandle south of TLH as well as from coastal GA into the SC Low Country. The general trend of rotation within the deeper, more cellular convection is expected to continue throughout the day into the evening across the entire region, with some chance for an increased frequency of rotating cells given the strengthening wind profiles. Best overlap between modest buoyancy and veering low-level wind profiles is still expected to occur from southeast GA northward into coastal SC and far southern NC (i.e. ILM vicinity). For much of this region, the higher dewpoints currently remain offshore, but additional advection inland is anticipated as the system moves northward. This additional low-level moisture should increase buoyancy slightly, which is expected to result in a relatively higher tornado threat. This relatively higher tornado risk is expected from 04Z to 18Z Friday, which bridges the Day 1 and Day 2 periods. As such, additional information regarding the tornado risk for this area can be found in the Day 2 Convective Outlook. Read more