Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were needed with this update. ..Weinman.. 09/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1246 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low on Friday. High pressure will continue to build in across the western US with warming temperatures and some drying of fuels. Overall, high pressure will keep winds light and fire concerns low. Across the eastern US, remnants of Hurricane Helene will bring strong winds but also widespread heavy rainfall. Overall, no overlap of Elevated/Critical conditions with receptive fuels is expected on Friday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were needed with this update. ..Weinman.. 09/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1246 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low on Friday. High pressure will continue to build in across the western US with warming temperatures and some drying of fuels. Overall, high pressure will keep winds light and fire concerns low. Across the eastern US, remnants of Hurricane Helene will bring strong winds but also widespread heavy rainfall. Overall, no overlap of Elevated/Critical conditions with receptive fuels is expected on Friday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were needed with this update. ..Weinman.. 09/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1246 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low on Friday. High pressure will continue to build in across the western US with warming temperatures and some drying of fuels. Overall, high pressure will keep winds light and fire concerns low. Across the eastern US, remnants of Hurricane Helene will bring strong winds but also widespread heavy rainfall. Overall, no overlap of Elevated/Critical conditions with receptive fuels is expected on Friday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were needed with this update. ..Weinman.. 09/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1246 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low on Friday. High pressure will continue to build in across the western US with warming temperatures and some drying of fuels. Overall, high pressure will keep winds light and fire concerns low. Across the eastern US, remnants of Hurricane Helene will bring strong winds but also widespread heavy rainfall. Overall, no overlap of Elevated/Critical conditions with receptive fuels is expected on Friday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were needed with this update. ..Weinman.. 09/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1246 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low on Friday. High pressure will continue to build in across the western US with warming temperatures and some drying of fuels. Overall, high pressure will keep winds light and fire concerns low. Across the eastern US, remnants of Hurricane Helene will bring strong winds but also widespread heavy rainfall. Overall, no overlap of Elevated/Critical conditions with receptive fuels is expected on Friday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were needed with this update. ..Weinman.. 09/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1246 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low on Friday. High pressure will continue to build in across the western US with warming temperatures and some drying of fuels. Overall, high pressure will keep winds light and fire concerns low. Across the eastern US, remnants of Hurricane Helene will bring strong winds but also widespread heavy rainfall. Overall, no overlap of Elevated/Critical conditions with receptive fuels is expected on Friday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were needed with this update. ..Weinman.. 09/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1246 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low on Friday. High pressure will continue to build in across the western US with warming temperatures and some drying of fuels. Overall, high pressure will keep winds light and fire concerns low. Across the eastern US, remnants of Hurricane Helene will bring strong winds but also widespread heavy rainfall. Overall, no overlap of Elevated/Critical conditions with receptive fuels is expected on Friday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were needed with this update. ..Weinman.. 09/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1246 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low on Friday. High pressure will continue to build in across the western US with warming temperatures and some drying of fuels. Overall, high pressure will keep winds light and fire concerns low. Across the eastern US, remnants of Hurricane Helene will bring strong winds but also widespread heavy rainfall. Overall, no overlap of Elevated/Critical conditions with receptive fuels is expected on Friday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were needed with this update. ..Weinman.. 09/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1246 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low on Friday. High pressure will continue to build in across the western US with warming temperatures and some drying of fuels. Overall, high pressure will keep winds light and fire concerns low. Across the eastern US, remnants of Hurricane Helene will bring strong winds but also widespread heavy rainfall. Overall, no overlap of Elevated/Critical conditions with receptive fuels is expected on Friday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were needed with this update. ..Weinman.. 09/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1246 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low on Friday. High pressure will continue to build in across the western US with warming temperatures and some drying of fuels. Overall, high pressure will keep winds light and fire concerns low. Across the eastern US, remnants of Hurricane Helene will bring strong winds but also widespread heavy rainfall. Overall, no overlap of Elevated/Critical conditions with receptive fuels is expected on Friday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were needed with this update. ..Weinman.. 09/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1246 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low on Friday. High pressure will continue to build in across the western US with warming temperatures and some drying of fuels. Overall, high pressure will keep winds light and fire concerns low. Across the eastern US, remnants of Hurricane Helene will bring strong winds but also widespread heavy rainfall. Overall, no overlap of Elevated/Critical conditions with receptive fuels is expected on Friday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were needed with this update. ..Weinman.. 09/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1246 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low on Friday. High pressure will continue to build in across the western US with warming temperatures and some drying of fuels. Overall, high pressure will keep winds light and fire concerns low. Across the eastern US, remnants of Hurricane Helene will bring strong winds but also widespread heavy rainfall. Overall, no overlap of Elevated/Critical conditions with receptive fuels is expected on Friday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 2116 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 684...685... FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA
Mesoscale Discussion 2116 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Areas affected...portions of eastern/southeastern Georgia Concerning...Tornado Watch 684...685... Valid 261752Z - 261845Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 684, 685 continues. SUMMARY...Low-topped supercells have shown increased low-level rotation over the last few hours across southeastern/eastern GA. The air mass in place is not overly favorable for tornadoes in the short term casting some uncertainty on the longevity of the tornado threat. A greater tornado risk should develop later today as Helene approaches. DISCUSSION...As of 1745 UTC, regional radar imagery shows a broad area of stratiform precipitation and embedded convective elements ongoing near a stationary front across potions of southern/eastern GA. North of the primary outer bands of TC Helene, substantial precipitation has been ongoing over the past 24. Despite strong low-level warm air advection, the precipitation has severely limited diurnal destabilization this far inland. With Buoyancy less than 250 J/kg of MUCAPE on SPC mesoanalysis, most of the convection is very low-topped and weak. Still, low-level hodographs have enlarged (and will continue to do so) through the day. This is supporting some tornado risk with the more robust cells in several weak bands. Eventually, a higher-theta E air mass should move in as the core of Helene approaches from the south later this afternoon/evening. This could support more buoyancy and a greater tornado risk. The primary uncertainty remains the limited buoyancy through the next several hours north of and west of Tornado Watch #685 and #684 respectively. A local extension of the active watches could be required to cover the more uncertain short-term tornado risk. However, the approach of Helene will eventually support a longer-fused tornado threat as low-level wind fields and buoyancy increase substantially. For now, the risk of tornadoes appears lower, though trends will continue to be monitored. ..Lyons/Mosier.. 09/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE... LAT...LON 31638231 31748395 31968427 32928364 33298289 33408240 33218227 32108210 31928211 31638231 Read more

MD 2115 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 684... FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...AND INTO EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA
Mesoscale Discussion 2115 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Areas affected...parts of central and eastern South Carolina...and into east-central and southeastern Georgia Concerning...Tornado Watch 684... Valid 261642Z - 261845Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 684 continues. SUMMARY...Potential for brief tornadoes will continue today. DISCUSSION...Occasional, brief spin-ups of low-level rotation have been observed via WSR-88D storm-relative velocity over the past couple of hours, across roughly the eastern half of WW 684. Weak circulations are currently most abundant with offshore, cellular convection just off the Georgia and southeastern South Carolina Coasts. With favorably veering low-level flow indicated, and expected to gradually increase through the day, occasional enhancements of low-level rotation within convective cells will pose ongoing risk for brief tornadoes across this area. ..Goss.. 09/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...JAX...FFC... LAT...LON 32298243 34348172 34678072 32747883 31308037 31438231 32298243 Read more

MD 2114 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 683... FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
Mesoscale Discussion 2114 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Areas affected...central and southern portions of the Florida Peninsula Concerning...Tornado Watch 683... Valid 261632Z - 261830Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 683 continues. SUMMARY...Local/brief tornado risk continues across the Florida Peninsula and adjacent coastal waters. DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a relative dearth of inland convection over central and southern Florida, despite the center of Helene only approximately 175 nm west of Naples Fl. With that said, additional/banded convection should affect the Peninsula over the next several hours as Helene moves slowly northward. Some hints of evolving/cellular convection are now noted over southern Florida from Lake Okeechobee south to the far southern Florida Coast, and cellular convection is also increasing near and just offshore from the Tampa Bay area. Given favorably strong/weakly veering low-level flow indicated across the area, risk for brief tornadoes continues with any cellular convection that evolves. ..Goss.. 09/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...KEY...TBW...JAX...TAE... LAT...LON 29108354 29608286 29418057 27697948 25727966 24868062 25278259 29108354 Read more

MD 2113 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 685... FOR CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 2113 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Areas affected...central portions of the Florida Panhandle Concerning...Tornado Watch 685... Valid 261620Z - 261815Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 685 continues. SUMMARY...Local risk for brief tornadoes will continue -- with greatest short-term potential over central portions of the Florida Panhandle. DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis reveals a nearly stationary north-south trough -- acting as a pseudo warm front and, as such, source of enhanced low-level vorticity -- extending from the Franklin/Gulf County vicinity on the Florida Coast, northward across far western Georgia and into the southern Appalachians. This boundary reflects the discontinuity between the moist/tropical airmass to the east, and the continental airmass to the west. Several/continued brief low-level spin-ups have been observed over the past couple of hours within this zone, and expect this local enhancement of tornado potential to continue over the next couple of hours, given increasingly favorably low-level flow and the nearly stationary character of this north-south boundary. ..Goss.. 09/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TAE... LAT...LON 29938539 30858521 30558448 29118399 28878488 29298555 29938539 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z The primary change with this update was to expand the Elevated highlights northwestward across portions of eastern MT. Here, surface observations already show a warming post-frontal air mass under mostly clear skies, and continued heating will result in 20-25 percent RH. These warm/dry conditions will overlap 20-25 mph sustained west-northwesterly surface winds for a couple hours this afternoon, and given dry fuels, elevated to locally critical conditions are expected. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 09/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1220 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... The pattern across the US on Thursday will be characterized by Hurricane Helene moving inland and becoming absorbed into the upper-level flow across the eastern US as a ridge of high pressure continues to be in place across the western US. Across the northern Rockies, a shortwave trough will traverse the northern periphery of the ridge with a dry cold front sagging southward into the northern Plains through the period. Ahead of the front, relative humidity around 15-20 percent will be possible across portions of eastern Wyoming into South Dakota. The frontal passage will bring an increase in surface winds, with sustained winds around 20-25 mph. There is some question as to what the duration of overlap will be between the lower relative humidity and stronger wind speeds. HREF probabilities of Elevated to Critical conditions remain generally around 30-40 percent. Fuels across much of eastern Wyoming into South Dakota are critically dry. Taking into account the possibility of briefly Elevated to locally Critical conditions, an Elevated area was included with this outlook given the uncertainty. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z The primary change with this update was to expand the Elevated highlights northwestward across portions of eastern MT. Here, surface observations already show a warming post-frontal air mass under mostly clear skies, and continued heating will result in 20-25 percent RH. These warm/dry conditions will overlap 20-25 mph sustained west-northwesterly surface winds for a couple hours this afternoon, and given dry fuels, elevated to locally critical conditions are expected. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 09/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1220 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... The pattern across the US on Thursday will be characterized by Hurricane Helene moving inland and becoming absorbed into the upper-level flow across the eastern US as a ridge of high pressure continues to be in place across the western US. Across the northern Rockies, a shortwave trough will traverse the northern periphery of the ridge with a dry cold front sagging southward into the northern Plains through the period. Ahead of the front, relative humidity around 15-20 percent will be possible across portions of eastern Wyoming into South Dakota. The frontal passage will bring an increase in surface winds, with sustained winds around 20-25 mph. There is some question as to what the duration of overlap will be between the lower relative humidity and stronger wind speeds. HREF probabilities of Elevated to Critical conditions remain generally around 30-40 percent. Fuels across much of eastern Wyoming into South Dakota are critically dry. Taking into account the possibility of briefly Elevated to locally Critical conditions, an Elevated area was included with this outlook given the uncertainty. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z The primary change with this update was to expand the Elevated highlights northwestward across portions of eastern MT. Here, surface observations already show a warming post-frontal air mass under mostly clear skies, and continued heating will result in 20-25 percent RH. These warm/dry conditions will overlap 20-25 mph sustained west-northwesterly surface winds for a couple hours this afternoon, and given dry fuels, elevated to locally critical conditions are expected. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 09/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1220 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... The pattern across the US on Thursday will be characterized by Hurricane Helene moving inland and becoming absorbed into the upper-level flow across the eastern US as a ridge of high pressure continues to be in place across the western US. Across the northern Rockies, a shortwave trough will traverse the northern periphery of the ridge with a dry cold front sagging southward into the northern Plains through the period. Ahead of the front, relative humidity around 15-20 percent will be possible across portions of eastern Wyoming into South Dakota. The frontal passage will bring an increase in surface winds, with sustained winds around 20-25 mph. There is some question as to what the duration of overlap will be between the lower relative humidity and stronger wind speeds. HREF probabilities of Elevated to Critical conditions remain generally around 30-40 percent. Fuels across much of eastern Wyoming into South Dakota are critically dry. Taking into account the possibility of briefly Elevated to locally Critical conditions, an Elevated area was included with this outlook given the uncertainty. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z The primary change with this update was to expand the Elevated highlights northwestward across portions of eastern MT. Here, surface observations already show a warming post-frontal air mass under mostly clear skies, and continued heating will result in 20-25 percent RH. These warm/dry conditions will overlap 20-25 mph sustained west-northwesterly surface winds for a couple hours this afternoon, and given dry fuels, elevated to locally critical conditions are expected. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 09/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1220 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... The pattern across the US on Thursday will be characterized by Hurricane Helene moving inland and becoming absorbed into the upper-level flow across the eastern US as a ridge of high pressure continues to be in place across the western US. Across the northern Rockies, a shortwave trough will traverse the northern periphery of the ridge with a dry cold front sagging southward into the northern Plains through the period. Ahead of the front, relative humidity around 15-20 percent will be possible across portions of eastern Wyoming into South Dakota. The frontal passage will bring an increase in surface winds, with sustained winds around 20-25 mph. There is some question as to what the duration of overlap will be between the lower relative humidity and stronger wind speeds. HREF probabilities of Elevated to Critical conditions remain generally around 30-40 percent. Fuels across much of eastern Wyoming into South Dakota are critically dry. Taking into account the possibility of briefly Elevated to locally Critical conditions, an Elevated area was included with this outlook given the uncertainty. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more