Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z The primary change with this update was to expand the Elevated highlights northwestward across portions of eastern MT. Here, surface observations already show a warming post-frontal air mass under mostly clear skies, and continued heating will result in 20-25 percent RH. These warm/dry conditions will overlap 20-25 mph sustained west-northwesterly surface winds for a couple hours this afternoon, and given dry fuels, elevated to locally critical conditions are expected. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 09/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1220 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... The pattern across the US on Thursday will be characterized by Hurricane Helene moving inland and becoming absorbed into the upper-level flow across the eastern US as a ridge of high pressure continues to be in place across the western US. Across the northern Rockies, a shortwave trough will traverse the northern periphery of the ridge with a dry cold front sagging southward into the northern Plains through the period. Ahead of the front, relative humidity around 15-20 percent will be possible across portions of eastern Wyoming into South Dakota. The frontal passage will bring an increase in surface winds, with sustained winds around 20-25 mph. There is some question as to what the duration of overlap will be between the lower relative humidity and stronger wind speeds. HREF probabilities of Elevated to Critical conditions remain generally around 30-40 percent. Fuels across much of eastern Wyoming into South Dakota are critically dry. Taking into account the possibility of briefly Elevated to locally Critical conditions, an Elevated area was included with this outlook given the uncertainty. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z The primary change with this update was to expand the Elevated highlights northwestward across portions of eastern MT. Here, surface observations already show a warming post-frontal air mass under mostly clear skies, and continued heating will result in 20-25 percent RH. These warm/dry conditions will overlap 20-25 mph sustained west-northwesterly surface winds for a couple hours this afternoon, and given dry fuels, elevated to locally critical conditions are expected. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 09/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1220 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... The pattern across the US on Thursday will be characterized by Hurricane Helene moving inland and becoming absorbed into the upper-level flow across the eastern US as a ridge of high pressure continues to be in place across the western US. Across the northern Rockies, a shortwave trough will traverse the northern periphery of the ridge with a dry cold front sagging southward into the northern Plains through the period. Ahead of the front, relative humidity around 15-20 percent will be possible across portions of eastern Wyoming into South Dakota. The frontal passage will bring an increase in surface winds, with sustained winds around 20-25 mph. There is some question as to what the duration of overlap will be between the lower relative humidity and stronger wind speeds. HREF probabilities of Elevated to Critical conditions remain generally around 30-40 percent. Fuels across much of eastern Wyoming into South Dakota are critically dry. Taking into account the possibility of briefly Elevated to locally Critical conditions, an Elevated area was included with this outlook given the uncertainty. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z The primary change with this update was to expand the Elevated highlights northwestward across portions of eastern MT. Here, surface observations already show a warming post-frontal air mass under mostly clear skies, and continued heating will result in 20-25 percent RH. These warm/dry conditions will overlap 20-25 mph sustained west-northwesterly surface winds for a couple hours this afternoon, and given dry fuels, elevated to locally critical conditions are expected. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 09/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1220 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... The pattern across the US on Thursday will be characterized by Hurricane Helene moving inland and becoming absorbed into the upper-level flow across the eastern US as a ridge of high pressure continues to be in place across the western US. Across the northern Rockies, a shortwave trough will traverse the northern periphery of the ridge with a dry cold front sagging southward into the northern Plains through the period. Ahead of the front, relative humidity around 15-20 percent will be possible across portions of eastern Wyoming into South Dakota. The frontal passage will bring an increase in surface winds, with sustained winds around 20-25 mph. There is some question as to what the duration of overlap will be between the lower relative humidity and stronger wind speeds. HREF probabilities of Elevated to Critical conditions remain generally around 30-40 percent. Fuels across much of eastern Wyoming into South Dakota are critically dry. Taking into account the possibility of briefly Elevated to locally Critical conditions, an Elevated area was included with this outlook given the uncertainty. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z The primary change with this update was to expand the Elevated highlights northwestward across portions of eastern MT. Here, surface observations already show a warming post-frontal air mass under mostly clear skies, and continued heating will result in 20-25 percent RH. These warm/dry conditions will overlap 20-25 mph sustained west-northwesterly surface winds for a couple hours this afternoon, and given dry fuels, elevated to locally critical conditions are expected. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 09/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1220 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... The pattern across the US on Thursday will be characterized by Hurricane Helene moving inland and becoming absorbed into the upper-level flow across the eastern US as a ridge of high pressure continues to be in place across the western US. Across the northern Rockies, a shortwave trough will traverse the northern periphery of the ridge with a dry cold front sagging southward into the northern Plains through the period. Ahead of the front, relative humidity around 15-20 percent will be possible across portions of eastern Wyoming into South Dakota. The frontal passage will bring an increase in surface winds, with sustained winds around 20-25 mph. There is some question as to what the duration of overlap will be between the lower relative humidity and stronger wind speeds. HREF probabilities of Elevated to Critical conditions remain generally around 30-40 percent. Fuels across much of eastern Wyoming into South Dakota are critically dry. Taking into account the possibility of briefly Elevated to locally Critical conditions, an Elevated area was included with this outlook given the uncertainty. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z The primary change with this update was to expand the Elevated highlights northwestward across portions of eastern MT. Here, surface observations already show a warming post-frontal air mass under mostly clear skies, and continued heating will result in 20-25 percent RH. These warm/dry conditions will overlap 20-25 mph sustained west-northwesterly surface winds for a couple hours this afternoon, and given dry fuels, elevated to locally critical conditions are expected. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 09/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1220 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... The pattern across the US on Thursday will be characterized by Hurricane Helene moving inland and becoming absorbed into the upper-level flow across the eastern US as a ridge of high pressure continues to be in place across the western US. Across the northern Rockies, a shortwave trough will traverse the northern periphery of the ridge with a dry cold front sagging southward into the northern Plains through the period. Ahead of the front, relative humidity around 15-20 percent will be possible across portions of eastern Wyoming into South Dakota. The frontal passage will bring an increase in surface winds, with sustained winds around 20-25 mph. There is some question as to what the duration of overlap will be between the lower relative humidity and stronger wind speeds. HREF probabilities of Elevated to Critical conditions remain generally around 30-40 percent. Fuels across much of eastern Wyoming into South Dakota are critically dry. Taking into account the possibility of briefly Elevated to locally Critical conditions, an Elevated area was included with this outlook given the uncertainty. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z The primary change with this update was to expand the Elevated highlights northwestward across portions of eastern MT. Here, surface observations already show a warming post-frontal air mass under mostly clear skies, and continued heating will result in 20-25 percent RH. These warm/dry conditions will overlap 20-25 mph sustained west-northwesterly surface winds for a couple hours this afternoon, and given dry fuels, elevated to locally critical conditions are expected. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 09/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1220 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... The pattern across the US on Thursday will be characterized by Hurricane Helene moving inland and becoming absorbed into the upper-level flow across the eastern US as a ridge of high pressure continues to be in place across the western US. Across the northern Rockies, a shortwave trough will traverse the northern periphery of the ridge with a dry cold front sagging southward into the northern Plains through the period. Ahead of the front, relative humidity around 15-20 percent will be possible across portions of eastern Wyoming into South Dakota. The frontal passage will bring an increase in surface winds, with sustained winds around 20-25 mph. There is some question as to what the duration of overlap will be between the lower relative humidity and stronger wind speeds. HREF probabilities of Elevated to Critical conditions remain generally around 30-40 percent. Fuels across much of eastern Wyoming into South Dakota are critically dry. Taking into account the possibility of briefly Elevated to locally Critical conditions, an Elevated area was included with this outlook given the uncertainty. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z The primary change with this update was to expand the Elevated highlights northwestward across portions of eastern MT. Here, surface observations already show a warming post-frontal air mass under mostly clear skies, and continued heating will result in 20-25 percent RH. These warm/dry conditions will overlap 20-25 mph sustained west-northwesterly surface winds for a couple hours this afternoon, and given dry fuels, elevated to locally critical conditions are expected. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 09/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1220 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... The pattern across the US on Thursday will be characterized by Hurricane Helene moving inland and becoming absorbed into the upper-level flow across the eastern US as a ridge of high pressure continues to be in place across the western US. Across the northern Rockies, a shortwave trough will traverse the northern periphery of the ridge with a dry cold front sagging southward into the northern Plains through the period. Ahead of the front, relative humidity around 15-20 percent will be possible across portions of eastern Wyoming into South Dakota. The frontal passage will bring an increase in surface winds, with sustained winds around 20-25 mph. There is some question as to what the duration of overlap will be between the lower relative humidity and stronger wind speeds. HREF probabilities of Elevated to Critical conditions remain generally around 30-40 percent. Fuels across much of eastern Wyoming into South Dakota are critically dry. Taking into account the possibility of briefly Elevated to locally Critical conditions, an Elevated area was included with this outlook given the uncertainty. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z The primary change with this update was to expand the Elevated highlights northwestward across portions of eastern MT. Here, surface observations already show a warming post-frontal air mass under mostly clear skies, and continued heating will result in 20-25 percent RH. These warm/dry conditions will overlap 20-25 mph sustained west-northwesterly surface winds for a couple hours this afternoon, and given dry fuels, elevated to locally critical conditions are expected. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 09/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1220 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... The pattern across the US on Thursday will be characterized by Hurricane Helene moving inland and becoming absorbed into the upper-level flow across the eastern US as a ridge of high pressure continues to be in place across the western US. Across the northern Rockies, a shortwave trough will traverse the northern periphery of the ridge with a dry cold front sagging southward into the northern Plains through the period. Ahead of the front, relative humidity around 15-20 percent will be possible across portions of eastern Wyoming into South Dakota. The frontal passage will bring an increase in surface winds, with sustained winds around 20-25 mph. There is some question as to what the duration of overlap will be between the lower relative humidity and stronger wind speeds. HREF probabilities of Elevated to Critical conditions remain generally around 30-40 percent. Fuels across much of eastern Wyoming into South Dakota are critically dry. Taking into account the possibility of briefly Elevated to locally Critical conditions, an Elevated area was included with this outlook given the uncertainty. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z The primary change with this update was to expand the Elevated highlights northwestward across portions of eastern MT. Here, surface observations already show a warming post-frontal air mass under mostly clear skies, and continued heating will result in 20-25 percent RH. These warm/dry conditions will overlap 20-25 mph sustained west-northwesterly surface winds for a couple hours this afternoon, and given dry fuels, elevated to locally critical conditions are expected. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 09/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1220 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... The pattern across the US on Thursday will be characterized by Hurricane Helene moving inland and becoming absorbed into the upper-level flow across the eastern US as a ridge of high pressure continues to be in place across the western US. Across the northern Rockies, a shortwave trough will traverse the northern periphery of the ridge with a dry cold front sagging southward into the northern Plains through the period. Ahead of the front, relative humidity around 15-20 percent will be possible across portions of eastern Wyoming into South Dakota. The frontal passage will bring an increase in surface winds, with sustained winds around 20-25 mph. There is some question as to what the duration of overlap will be between the lower relative humidity and stronger wind speeds. HREF probabilities of Elevated to Critical conditions remain generally around 30-40 percent. Fuels across much of eastern Wyoming into South Dakota are critically dry. Taking into account the possibility of briefly Elevated to locally Critical conditions, an Elevated area was included with this outlook given the uncertainty. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z The primary change with this update was to expand the Elevated highlights northwestward across portions of eastern MT. Here, surface observations already show a warming post-frontal air mass under mostly clear skies, and continued heating will result in 20-25 percent RH. These warm/dry conditions will overlap 20-25 mph sustained west-northwesterly surface winds for a couple hours this afternoon, and given dry fuels, elevated to locally critical conditions are expected. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 09/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1220 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... The pattern across the US on Thursday will be characterized by Hurricane Helene moving inland and becoming absorbed into the upper-level flow across the eastern US as a ridge of high pressure continues to be in place across the western US. Across the northern Rockies, a shortwave trough will traverse the northern periphery of the ridge with a dry cold front sagging southward into the northern Plains through the period. Ahead of the front, relative humidity around 15-20 percent will be possible across portions of eastern Wyoming into South Dakota. The frontal passage will bring an increase in surface winds, with sustained winds around 20-25 mph. There is some question as to what the duration of overlap will be between the lower relative humidity and stronger wind speeds. HREF probabilities of Elevated to Critical conditions remain generally around 30-40 percent. Fuels across much of eastern Wyoming into South Dakota are critically dry. Taking into account the possibility of briefly Elevated to locally Critical conditions, an Elevated area was included with this outlook given the uncertainty. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z The primary change with this update was to expand the Elevated highlights northwestward across portions of eastern MT. Here, surface observations already show a warming post-frontal air mass under mostly clear skies, and continued heating will result in 20-25 percent RH. These warm/dry conditions will overlap 20-25 mph sustained west-northwesterly surface winds for a couple hours this afternoon, and given dry fuels, elevated to locally critical conditions are expected. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 09/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1220 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... The pattern across the US on Thursday will be characterized by Hurricane Helene moving inland and becoming absorbed into the upper-level flow across the eastern US as a ridge of high pressure continues to be in place across the western US. Across the northern Rockies, a shortwave trough will traverse the northern periphery of the ridge with a dry cold front sagging southward into the northern Plains through the period. Ahead of the front, relative humidity around 15-20 percent will be possible across portions of eastern Wyoming into South Dakota. The frontal passage will bring an increase in surface winds, with sustained winds around 20-25 mph. There is some question as to what the duration of overlap will be between the lower relative humidity and stronger wind speeds. HREF probabilities of Elevated to Critical conditions remain generally around 30-40 percent. Fuels across much of eastern Wyoming into South Dakota are critically dry. Taking into account the possibility of briefly Elevated to locally Critical conditions, an Elevated area was included with this outlook given the uncertainty. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A PART OF THE NC/SC COASTAL PLAIN... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes will be most likely during the morning and remain possible into the afternoon on Friday, across parts of the Carolinas and southern Virginia, in association with Tropical Cyclone Helene. ...Carolinas/VA... TC Helene is forecast by NHC to become a tropical storm by 12Z Friday as it quickly progresses inland over the Southeast. This cyclone will further weaken as it rotates around and becomes further absorbed with an existing closed mid-level low over the Deep South. The associated low-level wind field, coincident with a rich tropical moisture plume on the eastern semicircle, will be strongest at the start of the period and weaken appreciably during the afternoon. Hodograph enlargement will be pronounced in the morning, but should still remain adequate for a tornado threat into the afternoon. A lower-topped convective band will be ongoing at 12Z, most likely centered over the Pee Dee of SC to the Piedmont of the NC/SC border area. This should advance quickly north through the rest of the morning into the afternoon across the NC Piedmont/Coastal Plain and southern VA. The greatest relative tornado threat should be along the NC/SC border area near the coast through late morning. As a dry slot punches rapidly north-northeast behind this band of convection, the severe risk will come to an abrupt end from south to north. Shrinking hodographs within the rich tropical moisture plume should result in a more spatially confined/waning threat later in the day. ..Grams.. 09/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A PART OF THE NC/SC COASTAL PLAIN... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes will be most likely during the morning and remain possible into the afternoon on Friday, across parts of the Carolinas and southern Virginia, in association with Tropical Cyclone Helene. ...Carolinas/VA... TC Helene is forecast by NHC to become a tropical storm by 12Z Friday as it quickly progresses inland over the Southeast. This cyclone will further weaken as it rotates around and becomes further absorbed with an existing closed mid-level low over the Deep South. The associated low-level wind field, coincident with a rich tropical moisture plume on the eastern semicircle, will be strongest at the start of the period and weaken appreciably during the afternoon. Hodograph enlargement will be pronounced in the morning, but should still remain adequate for a tornado threat into the afternoon. A lower-topped convective band will be ongoing at 12Z, most likely centered over the Pee Dee of SC to the Piedmont of the NC/SC border area. This should advance quickly north through the rest of the morning into the afternoon across the NC Piedmont/Coastal Plain and southern VA. The greatest relative tornado threat should be along the NC/SC border area near the coast through late morning. As a dry slot punches rapidly north-northeast behind this band of convection, the severe risk will come to an abrupt end from south to north. Shrinking hodographs within the rich tropical moisture plume should result in a more spatially confined/waning threat later in the day. ..Grams.. 09/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A PART OF THE NC/SC COASTAL PLAIN... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes will be most likely during the morning and remain possible into the afternoon on Friday, across parts of the Carolinas and southern Virginia, in association with Tropical Cyclone Helene. ...Carolinas/VA... TC Helene is forecast by NHC to become a tropical storm by 12Z Friday as it quickly progresses inland over the Southeast. This cyclone will further weaken as it rotates around and becomes further absorbed with an existing closed mid-level low over the Deep South. The associated low-level wind field, coincident with a rich tropical moisture plume on the eastern semicircle, will be strongest at the start of the period and weaken appreciably during the afternoon. Hodograph enlargement will be pronounced in the morning, but should still remain adequate for a tornado threat into the afternoon. A lower-topped convective band will be ongoing at 12Z, most likely centered over the Pee Dee of SC to the Piedmont of the NC/SC border area. This should advance quickly north through the rest of the morning into the afternoon across the NC Piedmont/Coastal Plain and southern VA. The greatest relative tornado threat should be along the NC/SC border area near the coast through late morning. As a dry slot punches rapidly north-northeast behind this band of convection, the severe risk will come to an abrupt end from south to north. Shrinking hodographs within the rich tropical moisture plume should result in a more spatially confined/waning threat later in the day. ..Grams.. 09/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A PART OF THE NC/SC COASTAL PLAIN... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes will be most likely during the morning and remain possible into the afternoon on Friday, across parts of the Carolinas and southern Virginia, in association with Tropical Cyclone Helene. ...Carolinas/VA... TC Helene is forecast by NHC to become a tropical storm by 12Z Friday as it quickly progresses inland over the Southeast. This cyclone will further weaken as it rotates around and becomes further absorbed with an existing closed mid-level low over the Deep South. The associated low-level wind field, coincident with a rich tropical moisture plume on the eastern semicircle, will be strongest at the start of the period and weaken appreciably during the afternoon. Hodograph enlargement will be pronounced in the morning, but should still remain adequate for a tornado threat into the afternoon. A lower-topped convective band will be ongoing at 12Z, most likely centered over the Pee Dee of SC to the Piedmont of the NC/SC border area. This should advance quickly north through the rest of the morning into the afternoon across the NC Piedmont/Coastal Plain and southern VA. The greatest relative tornado threat should be along the NC/SC border area near the coast through late morning. As a dry slot punches rapidly north-northeast behind this band of convection, the severe risk will come to an abrupt end from south to north. Shrinking hodographs within the rich tropical moisture plume should result in a more spatially confined/waning threat later in the day. ..Grams.. 09/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A PART OF THE NC/SC COASTAL PLAIN... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes will be most likely during the morning and remain possible into the afternoon on Friday, across parts of the Carolinas and southern Virginia, in association with Tropical Cyclone Helene. ...Carolinas/VA... TC Helene is forecast by NHC to become a tropical storm by 12Z Friday as it quickly progresses inland over the Southeast. This cyclone will further weaken as it rotates around and becomes further absorbed with an existing closed mid-level low over the Deep South. The associated low-level wind field, coincident with a rich tropical moisture plume on the eastern semicircle, will be strongest at the start of the period and weaken appreciably during the afternoon. Hodograph enlargement will be pronounced in the morning, but should still remain adequate for a tornado threat into the afternoon. A lower-topped convective band will be ongoing at 12Z, most likely centered over the Pee Dee of SC to the Piedmont of the NC/SC border area. This should advance quickly north through the rest of the morning into the afternoon across the NC Piedmont/Coastal Plain and southern VA. The greatest relative tornado threat should be along the NC/SC border area near the coast through late morning. As a dry slot punches rapidly north-northeast behind this band of convection, the severe risk will come to an abrupt end from south to north. Shrinking hodographs within the rich tropical moisture plume should result in a more spatially confined/waning threat later in the day. ..Grams.. 09/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A PART OF THE NC/SC COASTAL PLAIN... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes will be most likely during the morning and remain possible into the afternoon on Friday, across parts of the Carolinas and southern Virginia, in association with Tropical Cyclone Helene. ...Carolinas/VA... TC Helene is forecast by NHC to become a tropical storm by 12Z Friday as it quickly progresses inland over the Southeast. This cyclone will further weaken as it rotates around and becomes further absorbed with an existing closed mid-level low over the Deep South. The associated low-level wind field, coincident with a rich tropical moisture plume on the eastern semicircle, will be strongest at the start of the period and weaken appreciably during the afternoon. Hodograph enlargement will be pronounced in the morning, but should still remain adequate for a tornado threat into the afternoon. A lower-topped convective band will be ongoing at 12Z, most likely centered over the Pee Dee of SC to the Piedmont of the NC/SC border area. This should advance quickly north through the rest of the morning into the afternoon across the NC Piedmont/Coastal Plain and southern VA. The greatest relative tornado threat should be along the NC/SC border area near the coast through late morning. As a dry slot punches rapidly north-northeast behind this band of convection, the severe risk will come to an abrupt end from south to north. Shrinking hodographs within the rich tropical moisture plume should result in a more spatially confined/waning threat later in the day. ..Grams.. 09/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A PART OF THE NC/SC COASTAL PLAIN... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes will be most likely during the morning and remain possible into the afternoon on Friday, across parts of the Carolinas and southern Virginia, in association with Tropical Cyclone Helene. ...Carolinas/VA... TC Helene is forecast by NHC to become a tropical storm by 12Z Friday as it quickly progresses inland over the Southeast. This cyclone will further weaken as it rotates around and becomes further absorbed with an existing closed mid-level low over the Deep South. The associated low-level wind field, coincident with a rich tropical moisture plume on the eastern semicircle, will be strongest at the start of the period and weaken appreciably during the afternoon. Hodograph enlargement will be pronounced in the morning, but should still remain adequate for a tornado threat into the afternoon. A lower-topped convective band will be ongoing at 12Z, most likely centered over the Pee Dee of SC to the Piedmont of the NC/SC border area. This should advance quickly north through the rest of the morning into the afternoon across the NC Piedmont/Coastal Plain and southern VA. The greatest relative tornado threat should be along the NC/SC border area near the coast through late morning. As a dry slot punches rapidly north-northeast behind this band of convection, the severe risk will come to an abrupt end from south to north. Shrinking hodographs within the rich tropical moisture plume should result in a more spatially confined/waning threat later in the day. ..Grams.. 09/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A PART OF THE NC/SC COASTAL PLAIN... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes will be most likely during the morning and remain possible into the afternoon on Friday, across parts of the Carolinas and southern Virginia, in association with Tropical Cyclone Helene. ...Carolinas/VA... TC Helene is forecast by NHC to become a tropical storm by 12Z Friday as it quickly progresses inland over the Southeast. This cyclone will further weaken as it rotates around and becomes further absorbed with an existing closed mid-level low over the Deep South. The associated low-level wind field, coincident with a rich tropical moisture plume on the eastern semicircle, will be strongest at the start of the period and weaken appreciably during the afternoon. Hodograph enlargement will be pronounced in the morning, but should still remain adequate for a tornado threat into the afternoon. A lower-topped convective band will be ongoing at 12Z, most likely centered over the Pee Dee of SC to the Piedmont of the NC/SC border area. This should advance quickly north through the rest of the morning into the afternoon across the NC Piedmont/Coastal Plain and southern VA. The greatest relative tornado threat should be along the NC/SC border area near the coast through late morning. As a dry slot punches rapidly north-northeast behind this band of convection, the severe risk will come to an abrupt end from south to north. Shrinking hodographs within the rich tropical moisture plume should result in a more spatially confined/waning threat later in the day. ..Grams.. 09/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A PART OF THE NC/SC COASTAL PLAIN... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes will be most likely during the morning and remain possible into the afternoon on Friday, across parts of the Carolinas and southern Virginia, in association with Tropical Cyclone Helene. ...Carolinas/VA... TC Helene is forecast by NHC to become a tropical storm by 12Z Friday as it quickly progresses inland over the Southeast. This cyclone will further weaken as it rotates around and becomes further absorbed with an existing closed mid-level low over the Deep South. The associated low-level wind field, coincident with a rich tropical moisture plume on the eastern semicircle, will be strongest at the start of the period and weaken appreciably during the afternoon. Hodograph enlargement will be pronounced in the morning, but should still remain adequate for a tornado threat into the afternoon. A lower-topped convective band will be ongoing at 12Z, most likely centered over the Pee Dee of SC to the Piedmont of the NC/SC border area. This should advance quickly north through the rest of the morning into the afternoon across the NC Piedmont/Coastal Plain and southern VA. The greatest relative tornado threat should be along the NC/SC border area near the coast through late morning. As a dry slot punches rapidly north-northeast behind this band of convection, the severe risk will come to an abrupt end from south to north. Shrinking hodographs within the rich tropical moisture plume should result in a more spatially confined/waning threat later in the day. ..Grams.. 09/26/2024 Read more