Severe Storms

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0316 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... The upper low over the OH Valley will weaken and become an open wave early next week. Meanwhile, upper troughing across the east will be reinforced through midweek by a shortwave trough developing east/southeast across the Great Lakes. A surface cold front will develop east/southeast across much of the Plains and Midwest through Day 6/Tue. However stronger deep-layer flow will remain displaced well to the north and behind the front. Meanwhile, low-amplitude upper ridging will prevail across the Southwest/Four Corner, while a series of shortwave troughs migrate through more progressive northern stream flow near the international border in the vicinity of the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies. Overall severe thunderstorm potential appears low during the Day 4-8 period. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis... The closed mid/upper low will progress east across the OH/TN Valleys on Saturday, weakening with time. Enhanced southwesterly flow will prevail on the eastern periphery of this system, from parts of northern FL to the Mid-Atlantic. A moist boundary layer will also prevail across parts of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic vicinity. However, dry midlevels and poor lapse rates will limit instability across much of the region, with the exception being parts of the FL Peninsula. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across the FL Peninsula, but poor lapse rates, weak instability and only modest effective shear will limit severe thunderstorm potential. ..Leitman.. 09/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis... The closed mid/upper low will progress east across the OH/TN Valleys on Saturday, weakening with time. Enhanced southwesterly flow will prevail on the eastern periphery of this system, from parts of northern FL to the Mid-Atlantic. A moist boundary layer will also prevail across parts of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic vicinity. However, dry midlevels and poor lapse rates will limit instability across much of the region, with the exception being parts of the FL Peninsula. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across the FL Peninsula, but poor lapse rates, weak instability and only modest effective shear will limit severe thunderstorm potential. ..Leitman.. 09/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis... The closed mid/upper low will progress east across the OH/TN Valleys on Saturday, weakening with time. Enhanced southwesterly flow will prevail on the eastern periphery of this system, from parts of northern FL to the Mid-Atlantic. A moist boundary layer will also prevail across parts of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic vicinity. However, dry midlevels and poor lapse rates will limit instability across much of the region, with the exception being parts of the FL Peninsula. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across the FL Peninsula, but poor lapse rates, weak instability and only modest effective shear will limit severe thunderstorm potential. ..Leitman.. 09/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis... The closed mid/upper low will progress east across the OH/TN Valleys on Saturday, weakening with time. Enhanced southwesterly flow will prevail on the eastern periphery of this system, from parts of northern FL to the Mid-Atlantic. A moist boundary layer will also prevail across parts of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic vicinity. However, dry midlevels and poor lapse rates will limit instability across much of the region, with the exception being parts of the FL Peninsula. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across the FL Peninsula, but poor lapse rates, weak instability and only modest effective shear will limit severe thunderstorm potential. ..Leitman.. 09/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis... The closed mid/upper low will progress east across the OH/TN Valleys on Saturday, weakening with time. Enhanced southwesterly flow will prevail on the eastern periphery of this system, from parts of northern FL to the Mid-Atlantic. A moist boundary layer will also prevail across parts of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic vicinity. However, dry midlevels and poor lapse rates will limit instability across much of the region, with the exception being parts of the FL Peninsula. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across the FL Peninsula, but poor lapse rates, weak instability and only modest effective shear will limit severe thunderstorm potential. ..Leitman.. 09/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis... The closed mid/upper low will progress east across the OH/TN Valleys on Saturday, weakening with time. Enhanced southwesterly flow will prevail on the eastern periphery of this system, from parts of northern FL to the Mid-Atlantic. A moist boundary layer will also prevail across parts of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic vicinity. However, dry midlevels and poor lapse rates will limit instability across much of the region, with the exception being parts of the FL Peninsula. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across the FL Peninsula, but poor lapse rates, weak instability and only modest effective shear will limit severe thunderstorm potential. ..Leitman.. 09/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis... The closed mid/upper low will progress east across the OH/TN Valleys on Saturday, weakening with time. Enhanced southwesterly flow will prevail on the eastern periphery of this system, from parts of northern FL to the Mid-Atlantic. A moist boundary layer will also prevail across parts of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic vicinity. However, dry midlevels and poor lapse rates will limit instability across much of the region, with the exception being parts of the FL Peninsula. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across the FL Peninsula, but poor lapse rates, weak instability and only modest effective shear will limit severe thunderstorm potential. ..Leitman.. 09/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis... The closed mid/upper low will progress east across the OH/TN Valleys on Saturday, weakening with time. Enhanced southwesterly flow will prevail on the eastern periphery of this system, from parts of northern FL to the Mid-Atlantic. A moist boundary layer will also prevail across parts of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic vicinity. However, dry midlevels and poor lapse rates will limit instability across much of the region, with the exception being parts of the FL Peninsula. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across the FL Peninsula, but poor lapse rates, weak instability and only modest effective shear will limit severe thunderstorm potential. ..Leitman.. 09/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... A risk for a few tornadoes and damaging thunderstorm wind gusts exists from the central Appalachians into the Carolinas and southern Virginia on Friday. ...Central Appalachians and Southern Mid-Atlantic... The expansive, enhanced low/midlevel flow field on the eastern periphery of the remnants of Hurricane Helene will impact the central Appalachians east to portions of coastal SC/NC/southern VA through Friday afternoon/evening. Convective bands will likely be ongoing Friday morning across the Pee Dee region of SC, and lift northward through the afternoon. As a dry slot punches quickly north/northeast behind this band of convection, the severe risk will quickly come to an end from south to north by late afternoon or early evening. Supercell wind profiles, with enlarged, looping low-level hodographs are evident in forecast soundings around the region. Strong 0-1 km SRH and surface dewpoints in the mid 70s F (resulting in favorable low-level instability) will support a tornado risk with cells within the northward moving convective bands. Furthermore, given the already strong low-level flow field, strong thunderstorm wind gusts also will be possible. ...TN/OH Valley vicinity... Strong winds will likely occur from the central Appalachians westward across the OH/TN Valley vicinity as Helene tracks north/northwest and becomes absorbed by the mid/upper cyclone over the Mid-South region. However, these gusty winds will be tied to the transitioning tropical system, and less influenced by convective processes, precluding severe probabilities. ..Leitman.. 09/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... A risk for a few tornadoes and damaging thunderstorm wind gusts exists from the central Appalachians into the Carolinas and southern Virginia on Friday. ...Central Appalachians and Southern Mid-Atlantic... The expansive, enhanced low/midlevel flow field on the eastern periphery of the remnants of Hurricane Helene will impact the central Appalachians east to portions of coastal SC/NC/southern VA through Friday afternoon/evening. Convective bands will likely be ongoing Friday morning across the Pee Dee region of SC, and lift northward through the afternoon. As a dry slot punches quickly north/northeast behind this band of convection, the severe risk will quickly come to an end from south to north by late afternoon or early evening. Supercell wind profiles, with enlarged, looping low-level hodographs are evident in forecast soundings around the region. Strong 0-1 km SRH and surface dewpoints in the mid 70s F (resulting in favorable low-level instability) will support a tornado risk with cells within the northward moving convective bands. Furthermore, given the already strong low-level flow field, strong thunderstorm wind gusts also will be possible. ...TN/OH Valley vicinity... Strong winds will likely occur from the central Appalachians westward across the OH/TN Valley vicinity as Helene tracks north/northwest and becomes absorbed by the mid/upper cyclone over the Mid-South region. However, these gusty winds will be tied to the transitioning tropical system, and less influenced by convective processes, precluding severe probabilities. ..Leitman.. 09/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... A risk for a few tornadoes and damaging thunderstorm wind gusts exists from the central Appalachians into the Carolinas and southern Virginia on Friday. ...Central Appalachians and Southern Mid-Atlantic... The expansive, enhanced low/midlevel flow field on the eastern periphery of the remnants of Hurricane Helene will impact the central Appalachians east to portions of coastal SC/NC/southern VA through Friday afternoon/evening. Convective bands will likely be ongoing Friday morning across the Pee Dee region of SC, and lift northward through the afternoon. As a dry slot punches quickly north/northeast behind this band of convection, the severe risk will quickly come to an end from south to north by late afternoon or early evening. Supercell wind profiles, with enlarged, looping low-level hodographs are evident in forecast soundings around the region. Strong 0-1 km SRH and surface dewpoints in the mid 70s F (resulting in favorable low-level instability) will support a tornado risk with cells within the northward moving convective bands. Furthermore, given the already strong low-level flow field, strong thunderstorm wind gusts also will be possible. ...TN/OH Valley vicinity... Strong winds will likely occur from the central Appalachians westward across the OH/TN Valley vicinity as Helene tracks north/northwest and becomes absorbed by the mid/upper cyclone over the Mid-South region. However, these gusty winds will be tied to the transitioning tropical system, and less influenced by convective processes, precluding severe probabilities. ..Leitman.. 09/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... A risk for a few tornadoes and damaging thunderstorm wind gusts exists from the central Appalachians into the Carolinas and southern Virginia on Friday. ...Central Appalachians and Southern Mid-Atlantic... The expansive, enhanced low/midlevel flow field on the eastern periphery of the remnants of Hurricane Helene will impact the central Appalachians east to portions of coastal SC/NC/southern VA through Friday afternoon/evening. Convective bands will likely be ongoing Friday morning across the Pee Dee region of SC, and lift northward through the afternoon. As a dry slot punches quickly north/northeast behind this band of convection, the severe risk will quickly come to an end from south to north by late afternoon or early evening. Supercell wind profiles, with enlarged, looping low-level hodographs are evident in forecast soundings around the region. Strong 0-1 km SRH and surface dewpoints in the mid 70s F (resulting in favorable low-level instability) will support a tornado risk with cells within the northward moving convective bands. Furthermore, given the already strong low-level flow field, strong thunderstorm wind gusts also will be possible. ...TN/OH Valley vicinity... Strong winds will likely occur from the central Appalachians westward across the OH/TN Valley vicinity as Helene tracks north/northwest and becomes absorbed by the mid/upper cyclone over the Mid-South region. However, these gusty winds will be tied to the transitioning tropical system, and less influenced by convective processes, precluding severe probabilities. ..Leitman.. 09/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... A risk for a few tornadoes and damaging thunderstorm wind gusts exists from the central Appalachians into the Carolinas and southern Virginia on Friday. ...Central Appalachians and Southern Mid-Atlantic... The expansive, enhanced low/midlevel flow field on the eastern periphery of the remnants of Hurricane Helene will impact the central Appalachians east to portions of coastal SC/NC/southern VA through Friday afternoon/evening. Convective bands will likely be ongoing Friday morning across the Pee Dee region of SC, and lift northward through the afternoon. As a dry slot punches quickly north/northeast behind this band of convection, the severe risk will quickly come to an end from south to north by late afternoon or early evening. Supercell wind profiles, with enlarged, looping low-level hodographs are evident in forecast soundings around the region. Strong 0-1 km SRH and surface dewpoints in the mid 70s F (resulting in favorable low-level instability) will support a tornado risk with cells within the northward moving convective bands. Furthermore, given the already strong low-level flow field, strong thunderstorm wind gusts also will be possible. ...TN/OH Valley vicinity... Strong winds will likely occur from the central Appalachians westward across the OH/TN Valley vicinity as Helene tracks north/northwest and becomes absorbed by the mid/upper cyclone over the Mid-South region. However, these gusty winds will be tied to the transitioning tropical system, and less influenced by convective processes, precluding severe probabilities. ..Leitman.. 09/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR COASTAL AREAS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA...GEORGIA...AND SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes will be possible later today into tonight, in association with Hurricane Helene. The greatest threat is expected from parts of Florida into southeast Georgia, the Midlands and Low Country of South Carolina, and southern North Carolina. ...FL/GA into the Carolinas... Hurricane Helene is forecast to move north to north-northeast and accelerate across the eastern Gulf of Mexico today, with landfall expected in the Florida Big Bend region this evening. See NHC forecasts and advisories for more information. Increasing low-level flow/shear associated with Helene's large wind field will overspread the Florida Peninsula this morning, southeast Georgia and parts of SC by this afternoon, and eventually into parts of NC later tonight. Low-level hodographs will become quite large, with 0-1 km SRH increasing into at least the 250-500 m2/s2 range. This will support tornado potential with any low-topped supercells that are able to develop and persist within Helene's rain bands. Due to Helene's large size and fast forward speed, a broad region from Florida and Georgia northward into the Carolinas will see some risk for tornadoes. During the day, Helene's rain bands will overspread the FL Peninsula, with other outer bands potentially moving inland across parts of GA/SC and eventually NC through tonight. The Enhanced Risk has been maintained and expanded somewhat from extreme northeast FL into coastal GA/SC, where multiple low-topped supercells will be possible within an increasingly favorable environment. Some tornado potential will spread into parts of NC later tonight, with the northern extent of the primary tornado threat still somewhat uncertain and dependent on Helene's forward speed and track. ...Hudson Valley vicinity into southern New England... An upper low will move eastward across southern Quebec and adjacent portions of New England today. Strong large-scale ascent will aid in the development of convection during the afternoon from southern New England into the Hudson Valley. Lapse rates will be weak and buoyancy modest at best, but enhanced mid-level flow through the base of the upper low will support moderate to strong deep-layer vertical shear. Consequently, a few stronger storms capable of gusty winds are possible, but confidence in sufficient destabilization is too low for severe probabilities at this time. ..Dean.. 09/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR COASTAL AREAS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA...GEORGIA...AND SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes will be possible later today into tonight, in association with Hurricane Helene. The greatest threat is expected from parts of Florida into southeast Georgia, the Midlands and Low Country of South Carolina, and southern North Carolina. ...FL/GA into the Carolinas... Hurricane Helene is forecast to move north to north-northeast and accelerate across the eastern Gulf of Mexico today, with landfall expected in the Florida Big Bend region this evening. See NHC forecasts and advisories for more information. Increasing low-level flow/shear associated with Helene's large wind field will overspread the Florida Peninsula this morning, southeast Georgia and parts of SC by this afternoon, and eventually into parts of NC later tonight. Low-level hodographs will become quite large, with 0-1 km SRH increasing into at least the 250-500 m2/s2 range. This will support tornado potential with any low-topped supercells that are able to develop and persist within Helene's rain bands. Due to Helene's large size and fast forward speed, a broad region from Florida and Georgia northward into the Carolinas will see some risk for tornadoes. During the day, Helene's rain bands will overspread the FL Peninsula, with other outer bands potentially moving inland across parts of GA/SC and eventually NC through tonight. The Enhanced Risk has been maintained and expanded somewhat from extreme northeast FL into coastal GA/SC, where multiple low-topped supercells will be possible within an increasingly favorable environment. Some tornado potential will spread into parts of NC later tonight, with the northern extent of the primary tornado threat still somewhat uncertain and dependent on Helene's forward speed and track. ...Hudson Valley vicinity into southern New England... An upper low will move eastward across southern Quebec and adjacent portions of New England today. Strong large-scale ascent will aid in the development of convection during the afternoon from southern New England into the Hudson Valley. Lapse rates will be weak and buoyancy modest at best, but enhanced mid-level flow through the base of the upper low will support moderate to strong deep-layer vertical shear. Consequently, a few stronger storms capable of gusty winds are possible, but confidence in sufficient destabilization is too low for severe probabilities at this time. ..Dean.. 09/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR COASTAL AREAS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA...GEORGIA...AND SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes will be possible later today into tonight, in association with Hurricane Helene. The greatest threat is expected from parts of Florida into southeast Georgia, the Midlands and Low Country of South Carolina, and southern North Carolina. ...FL/GA into the Carolinas... Hurricane Helene is forecast to move north to north-northeast and accelerate across the eastern Gulf of Mexico today, with landfall expected in the Florida Big Bend region this evening. See NHC forecasts and advisories for more information. Increasing low-level flow/shear associated with Helene's large wind field will overspread the Florida Peninsula this morning, southeast Georgia and parts of SC by this afternoon, and eventually into parts of NC later tonight. Low-level hodographs will become quite large, with 0-1 km SRH increasing into at least the 250-500 m2/s2 range. This will support tornado potential with any low-topped supercells that are able to develop and persist within Helene's rain bands. Due to Helene's large size and fast forward speed, a broad region from Florida and Georgia northward into the Carolinas will see some risk for tornadoes. During the day, Helene's rain bands will overspread the FL Peninsula, with other outer bands potentially moving inland across parts of GA/SC and eventually NC through tonight. The Enhanced Risk has been maintained and expanded somewhat from extreme northeast FL into coastal GA/SC, where multiple low-topped supercells will be possible within an increasingly favorable environment. Some tornado potential will spread into parts of NC later tonight, with the northern extent of the primary tornado threat still somewhat uncertain and dependent on Helene's forward speed and track. ...Hudson Valley vicinity into southern New England... An upper low will move eastward across southern Quebec and adjacent portions of New England today. Strong large-scale ascent will aid in the development of convection during the afternoon from southern New England into the Hudson Valley. Lapse rates will be weak and buoyancy modest at best, but enhanced mid-level flow through the base of the upper low will support moderate to strong deep-layer vertical shear. Consequently, a few stronger storms capable of gusty winds are possible, but confidence in sufficient destabilization is too low for severe probabilities at this time. ..Dean.. 09/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR COASTAL AREAS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA...GEORGIA...AND SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes will be possible later today into tonight, in association with Hurricane Helene. The greatest threat is expected from parts of Florida into southeast Georgia, the Midlands and Low Country of South Carolina, and southern North Carolina. ...FL/GA into the Carolinas... Hurricane Helene is forecast to move north to north-northeast and accelerate across the eastern Gulf of Mexico today, with landfall expected in the Florida Big Bend region this evening. See NHC forecasts and advisories for more information. Increasing low-level flow/shear associated with Helene's large wind field will overspread the Florida Peninsula this morning, southeast Georgia and parts of SC by this afternoon, and eventually into parts of NC later tonight. Low-level hodographs will become quite large, with 0-1 km SRH increasing into at least the 250-500 m2/s2 range. This will support tornado potential with any low-topped supercells that are able to develop and persist within Helene's rain bands. Due to Helene's large size and fast forward speed, a broad region from Florida and Georgia northward into the Carolinas will see some risk for tornadoes. During the day, Helene's rain bands will overspread the FL Peninsula, with other outer bands potentially moving inland across parts of GA/SC and eventually NC through tonight. The Enhanced Risk has been maintained and expanded somewhat from extreme northeast FL into coastal GA/SC, where multiple low-topped supercells will be possible within an increasingly favorable environment. Some tornado potential will spread into parts of NC later tonight, with the northern extent of the primary tornado threat still somewhat uncertain and dependent on Helene's forward speed and track. ...Hudson Valley vicinity into southern New England... An upper low will move eastward across southern Quebec and adjacent portions of New England today. Strong large-scale ascent will aid in the development of convection during the afternoon from southern New England into the Hudson Valley. Lapse rates will be weak and buoyancy modest at best, but enhanced mid-level flow through the base of the upper low will support moderate to strong deep-layer vertical shear. Consequently, a few stronger storms capable of gusty winds are possible, but confidence in sufficient destabilization is too low for severe probabilities at this time. ..Dean.. 09/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR COASTAL AREAS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA...GEORGIA...AND SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes will be possible later today into tonight, in association with Hurricane Helene. The greatest threat is expected from parts of Florida into southeast Georgia, the Midlands and Low Country of South Carolina, and southern North Carolina. ...FL/GA into the Carolinas... Hurricane Helene is forecast to move north to north-northeast and accelerate across the eastern Gulf of Mexico today, with landfall expected in the Florida Big Bend region this evening. See NHC forecasts and advisories for more information. Increasing low-level flow/shear associated with Helene's large wind field will overspread the Florida Peninsula this morning, southeast Georgia and parts of SC by this afternoon, and eventually into parts of NC later tonight. Low-level hodographs will become quite large, with 0-1 km SRH increasing into at least the 250-500 m2/s2 range. This will support tornado potential with any low-topped supercells that are able to develop and persist within Helene's rain bands. Due to Helene's large size and fast forward speed, a broad region from Florida and Georgia northward into the Carolinas will see some risk for tornadoes. During the day, Helene's rain bands will overspread the FL Peninsula, with other outer bands potentially moving inland across parts of GA/SC and eventually NC through tonight. The Enhanced Risk has been maintained and expanded somewhat from extreme northeast FL into coastal GA/SC, where multiple low-topped supercells will be possible within an increasingly favorable environment. Some tornado potential will spread into parts of NC later tonight, with the northern extent of the primary tornado threat still somewhat uncertain and dependent on Helene's forward speed and track. ...Hudson Valley vicinity into southern New England... An upper low will move eastward across southern Quebec and adjacent portions of New England today. Strong large-scale ascent will aid in the development of convection during the afternoon from southern New England into the Hudson Valley. Lapse rates will be weak and buoyancy modest at best, but enhanced mid-level flow through the base of the upper low will support moderate to strong deep-layer vertical shear. Consequently, a few stronger storms capable of gusty winds are possible, but confidence in sufficient destabilization is too low for severe probabilities at this time. ..Dean.. 09/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR COASTAL AREAS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA...GEORGIA...AND SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes will be possible later today into tonight, in association with Hurricane Helene. The greatest threat is expected from parts of Florida into southeast Georgia, the Midlands and Low Country of South Carolina, and southern North Carolina. ...FL/GA into the Carolinas... Hurricane Helene is forecast to move north to north-northeast and accelerate across the eastern Gulf of Mexico today, with landfall expected in the Florida Big Bend region this evening. See NHC forecasts and advisories for more information. Increasing low-level flow/shear associated with Helene's large wind field will overspread the Florida Peninsula this morning, southeast Georgia and parts of SC by this afternoon, and eventually into parts of NC later tonight. Low-level hodographs will become quite large, with 0-1 km SRH increasing into at least the 250-500 m2/s2 range. This will support tornado potential with any low-topped supercells that are able to develop and persist within Helene's rain bands. Due to Helene's large size and fast forward speed, a broad region from Florida and Georgia northward into the Carolinas will see some risk for tornadoes. During the day, Helene's rain bands will overspread the FL Peninsula, with other outer bands potentially moving inland across parts of GA/SC and eventually NC through tonight. The Enhanced Risk has been maintained and expanded somewhat from extreme northeast FL into coastal GA/SC, where multiple low-topped supercells will be possible within an increasingly favorable environment. Some tornado potential will spread into parts of NC later tonight, with the northern extent of the primary tornado threat still somewhat uncertain and dependent on Helene's forward speed and track. ...Hudson Valley vicinity into southern New England... An upper low will move eastward across southern Quebec and adjacent portions of New England today. Strong large-scale ascent will aid in the development of convection during the afternoon from southern New England into the Hudson Valley. Lapse rates will be weak and buoyancy modest at best, but enhanced mid-level flow through the base of the upper low will support moderate to strong deep-layer vertical shear. Consequently, a few stronger storms capable of gusty winds are possible, but confidence in sufficient destabilization is too low for severe probabilities at this time. ..Dean.. 09/26/2024 Read more