Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low on Friday. High pressure will continue to build in across the western US with warming temperatures and some drying of fuels. Overall, high pressure will keep winds light and fire concerns low. Across the eastern US, remnants of Hurricane Helene will bring strong winds but also widespread heavy rainfall. Overall, no overlap of Elevated/Critical conditions with receptive fuels is expected on Friday. ..Thornton.. 09/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low on Friday. High pressure will continue to build in across the western US with warming temperatures and some drying of fuels. Overall, high pressure will keep winds light and fire concerns low. Across the eastern US, remnants of Hurricane Helene will bring strong winds but also widespread heavy rainfall. Overall, no overlap of Elevated/Critical conditions with receptive fuels is expected on Friday. ..Thornton.. 09/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low on Friday. High pressure will continue to build in across the western US with warming temperatures and some drying of fuels. Overall, high pressure will keep winds light and fire concerns low. Across the eastern US, remnants of Hurricane Helene will bring strong winds but also widespread heavy rainfall. Overall, no overlap of Elevated/Critical conditions with receptive fuels is expected on Friday. ..Thornton.. 09/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low on Friday. High pressure will continue to build in across the western US with warming temperatures and some drying of fuels. Overall, high pressure will keep winds light and fire concerns low. Across the eastern US, remnants of Hurricane Helene will bring strong winds but also widespread heavy rainfall. Overall, no overlap of Elevated/Critical conditions with receptive fuels is expected on Friday. ..Thornton.. 09/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low on Friday. High pressure will continue to build in across the western US with warming temperatures and some drying of fuels. Overall, high pressure will keep winds light and fire concerns low. Across the eastern US, remnants of Hurricane Helene will bring strong winds but also widespread heavy rainfall. Overall, no overlap of Elevated/Critical conditions with receptive fuels is expected on Friday. ..Thornton.. 09/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low on Friday. High pressure will continue to build in across the western US with warming temperatures and some drying of fuels. Overall, high pressure will keep winds light and fire concerns low. Across the eastern US, remnants of Hurricane Helene will bring strong winds but also widespread heavy rainfall. Overall, no overlap of Elevated/Critical conditions with receptive fuels is expected on Friday. ..Thornton.. 09/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Synopsis... The pattern across the US on Thursday will be characterized by Hurricane Helene moving inland and becoming absorbed into the upper-level flow across the eastern US as a ridge of high pressure continues to be in place across the western US. Across the northern Rockies, a shortwave trough will traverse the northern periphery of the ridge with a dry cold front sagging southward into the northern Plains through the period. Ahead of the front, relative humidity around 15-20 percent will be possible across portions of eastern Wyoming into South Dakota. The frontal passage will bring an increase in surface winds, with sustained winds around 20-25 mph. There is some question as to what the duration of overlap will be between the lower relative humidity and stronger wind speeds. HREF probabilities of Elevated to Critical conditions remain generally around 30-40 percent. Fuels across much of eastern Wyoming into South Dakota are critically dry. Taking into account the possibility of briefly Elevated to locally Critical conditions, an Elevated area was included with this outlook given the uncertainty. ..Thornton.. 09/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Synopsis... The pattern across the US on Thursday will be characterized by Hurricane Helene moving inland and becoming absorbed into the upper-level flow across the eastern US as a ridge of high pressure continues to be in place across the western US. Across the northern Rockies, a shortwave trough will traverse the northern periphery of the ridge with a dry cold front sagging southward into the northern Plains through the period. Ahead of the front, relative humidity around 15-20 percent will be possible across portions of eastern Wyoming into South Dakota. The frontal passage will bring an increase in surface winds, with sustained winds around 20-25 mph. There is some question as to what the duration of overlap will be between the lower relative humidity and stronger wind speeds. HREF probabilities of Elevated to Critical conditions remain generally around 30-40 percent. Fuels across much of eastern Wyoming into South Dakota are critically dry. Taking into account the possibility of briefly Elevated to locally Critical conditions, an Elevated area was included with this outlook given the uncertainty. ..Thornton.. 09/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Synopsis... The pattern across the US on Thursday will be characterized by Hurricane Helene moving inland and becoming absorbed into the upper-level flow across the eastern US as a ridge of high pressure continues to be in place across the western US. Across the northern Rockies, a shortwave trough will traverse the northern periphery of the ridge with a dry cold front sagging southward into the northern Plains through the period. Ahead of the front, relative humidity around 15-20 percent will be possible across portions of eastern Wyoming into South Dakota. The frontal passage will bring an increase in surface winds, with sustained winds around 20-25 mph. There is some question as to what the duration of overlap will be between the lower relative humidity and stronger wind speeds. HREF probabilities of Elevated to Critical conditions remain generally around 30-40 percent. Fuels across much of eastern Wyoming into South Dakota are critically dry. Taking into account the possibility of briefly Elevated to locally Critical conditions, an Elevated area was included with this outlook given the uncertainty. ..Thornton.. 09/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Synopsis... The pattern across the US on Thursday will be characterized by Hurricane Helene moving inland and becoming absorbed into the upper-level flow across the eastern US as a ridge of high pressure continues to be in place across the western US. Across the northern Rockies, a shortwave trough will traverse the northern periphery of the ridge with a dry cold front sagging southward into the northern Plains through the period. Ahead of the front, relative humidity around 15-20 percent will be possible across portions of eastern Wyoming into South Dakota. The frontal passage will bring an increase in surface winds, with sustained winds around 20-25 mph. There is some question as to what the duration of overlap will be between the lower relative humidity and stronger wind speeds. HREF probabilities of Elevated to Critical conditions remain generally around 30-40 percent. Fuels across much of eastern Wyoming into South Dakota are critically dry. Taking into account the possibility of briefly Elevated to locally Critical conditions, an Elevated area was included with this outlook given the uncertainty. ..Thornton.. 09/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Synopsis... The pattern across the US on Thursday will be characterized by Hurricane Helene moving inland and becoming absorbed into the upper-level flow across the eastern US as a ridge of high pressure continues to be in place across the western US. Across the northern Rockies, a shortwave trough will traverse the northern periphery of the ridge with a dry cold front sagging southward into the northern Plains through the period. Ahead of the front, relative humidity around 15-20 percent will be possible across portions of eastern Wyoming into South Dakota. The frontal passage will bring an increase in surface winds, with sustained winds around 20-25 mph. There is some question as to what the duration of overlap will be between the lower relative humidity and stronger wind speeds. HREF probabilities of Elevated to Critical conditions remain generally around 30-40 percent. Fuels across much of eastern Wyoming into South Dakota are critically dry. Taking into account the possibility of briefly Elevated to locally Critical conditions, an Elevated area was included with this outlook given the uncertainty. ..Thornton.. 09/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Synopsis... The pattern across the US on Thursday will be characterized by Hurricane Helene moving inland and becoming absorbed into the upper-level flow across the eastern US as a ridge of high pressure continues to be in place across the western US. Across the northern Rockies, a shortwave trough will traverse the northern periphery of the ridge with a dry cold front sagging southward into the northern Plains through the period. Ahead of the front, relative humidity around 15-20 percent will be possible across portions of eastern Wyoming into South Dakota. The frontal passage will bring an increase in surface winds, with sustained winds around 20-25 mph. There is some question as to what the duration of overlap will be between the lower relative humidity and stronger wind speeds. HREF probabilities of Elevated to Critical conditions remain generally around 30-40 percent. Fuels across much of eastern Wyoming into South Dakota are critically dry. Taking into account the possibility of briefly Elevated to locally Critical conditions, an Elevated area was included with this outlook given the uncertainty. ..Thornton.. 09/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible this evening from the southern Appalachians into parts of the Southeast. Some tornado threat may develop later tonight over Florida, in association with Hurricane Helene. ...Florida... Hurricane Helene is forecast to intensify and move north to north-northeastward across the southeast Gulf of Mexico tonight; see NHC forecasts/advisories for more information. Helene's large wind field will continue to overspread the Florida Peninsula and Keys tonight, with low-level shear/SRH becoming increasingly favorable for low-topped supercells with a potential tornado threat. Low-topped supercell potential prior to 12Z Thursday morning remains uncertain, with inland instability expected to remain relatively limited. Outer rain bands could begin to affect the western Peninsula later tonight, while convection may persist near a convergence zone near the east coast. ...Southern Appalachians vicinity into parts of the Southeast... Widespread precipitation is ongoing this evening within a corridor from the FL Panhandle into western NC/VA, but weak to locally moderate buoyancy persists east of this band, with regional VWPs and the 00Z RNK sounding depicting vertically veering wind profiles favorable for organized convection. Generally weak low/midlevel lapse rates will tend to limit storm intensity, but marginal supercell potential may persist through the evening, with a threat of isolated damaging gusts and possibly a tornado. ...Northern ID/northeast WA/northwest MT... While low-level moisture is limited, steep lapse rates and ascent attendant to an approaching mid/upper-level shortwave trough are supporting a high-based storm cluster currently moving across the ID Panhandle. This cluster has a history of 60-65 mph gusts, and will move across northwest MT early this evening, with a continued threat of strong to locally severe gusts. ..Dean.. 09/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible this evening from the southern Appalachians into parts of the Southeast. Some tornado threat may develop later tonight over Florida, in association with Hurricane Helene. ...Florida... Hurricane Helene is forecast to intensify and move north to north-northeastward across the southeast Gulf of Mexico tonight; see NHC forecasts/advisories for more information. Helene's large wind field will continue to overspread the Florida Peninsula and Keys tonight, with low-level shear/SRH becoming increasingly favorable for low-topped supercells with a potential tornado threat. Low-topped supercell potential prior to 12Z Thursday morning remains uncertain, with inland instability expected to remain relatively limited. Outer rain bands could begin to affect the western Peninsula later tonight, while convection may persist near a convergence zone near the east coast. ...Southern Appalachians vicinity into parts of the Southeast... Widespread precipitation is ongoing this evening within a corridor from the FL Panhandle into western NC/VA, but weak to locally moderate buoyancy persists east of this band, with regional VWPs and the 00Z RNK sounding depicting vertically veering wind profiles favorable for organized convection. Generally weak low/midlevel lapse rates will tend to limit storm intensity, but marginal supercell potential may persist through the evening, with a threat of isolated damaging gusts and possibly a tornado. ...Northern ID/northeast WA/northwest MT... While low-level moisture is limited, steep lapse rates and ascent attendant to an approaching mid/upper-level shortwave trough are supporting a high-based storm cluster currently moving across the ID Panhandle. This cluster has a history of 60-65 mph gusts, and will move across northwest MT early this evening, with a continued threat of strong to locally severe gusts. ..Dean.. 09/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible this evening from the southern Appalachians into parts of the Southeast. Some tornado threat may develop later tonight over Florida, in association with Hurricane Helene. ...Florida... Hurricane Helene is forecast to intensify and move north to north-northeastward across the southeast Gulf of Mexico tonight; see NHC forecasts/advisories for more information. Helene's large wind field will continue to overspread the Florida Peninsula and Keys tonight, with low-level shear/SRH becoming increasingly favorable for low-topped supercells with a potential tornado threat. Low-topped supercell potential prior to 12Z Thursday morning remains uncertain, with inland instability expected to remain relatively limited. Outer rain bands could begin to affect the western Peninsula later tonight, while convection may persist near a convergence zone near the east coast. ...Southern Appalachians vicinity into parts of the Southeast... Widespread precipitation is ongoing this evening within a corridor from the FL Panhandle into western NC/VA, but weak to locally moderate buoyancy persists east of this band, with regional VWPs and the 00Z RNK sounding depicting vertically veering wind profiles favorable for organized convection. Generally weak low/midlevel lapse rates will tend to limit storm intensity, but marginal supercell potential may persist through the evening, with a threat of isolated damaging gusts and possibly a tornado. ...Northern ID/northeast WA/northwest MT... While low-level moisture is limited, steep lapse rates and ascent attendant to an approaching mid/upper-level shortwave trough are supporting a high-based storm cluster currently moving across the ID Panhandle. This cluster has a history of 60-65 mph gusts, and will move across northwest MT early this evening, with a continued threat of strong to locally severe gusts. ..Dean.. 09/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible this evening from the southern Appalachians into parts of the Southeast. Some tornado threat may develop later tonight over Florida, in association with Hurricane Helene. ...Florida... Hurricane Helene is forecast to intensify and move north to north-northeastward across the southeast Gulf of Mexico tonight; see NHC forecasts/advisories for more information. Helene's large wind field will continue to overspread the Florida Peninsula and Keys tonight, with low-level shear/SRH becoming increasingly favorable for low-topped supercells with a potential tornado threat. Low-topped supercell potential prior to 12Z Thursday morning remains uncertain, with inland instability expected to remain relatively limited. Outer rain bands could begin to affect the western Peninsula later tonight, while convection may persist near a convergence zone near the east coast. ...Southern Appalachians vicinity into parts of the Southeast... Widespread precipitation is ongoing this evening within a corridor from the FL Panhandle into western NC/VA, but weak to locally moderate buoyancy persists east of this band, with regional VWPs and the 00Z RNK sounding depicting vertically veering wind profiles favorable for organized convection. Generally weak low/midlevel lapse rates will tend to limit storm intensity, but marginal supercell potential may persist through the evening, with a threat of isolated damaging gusts and possibly a tornado. ...Northern ID/northeast WA/northwest MT... While low-level moisture is limited, steep lapse rates and ascent attendant to an approaching mid/upper-level shortwave trough are supporting a high-based storm cluster currently moving across the ID Panhandle. This cluster has a history of 60-65 mph gusts, and will move across northwest MT early this evening, with a continued threat of strong to locally severe gusts. ..Dean.. 09/26/2024 Read more

No watches are valid as of Wed Sep 25 22:27:02 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Sep 25 22:27:02 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0442 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 031200Z Hurricane Helene will pull tropical moisture northward and absorb into a cutoff upper low in the Tennessee Valley region on Friday. This cutoff low will remain through at least Saturday before the pattern becomes more progressive. The combination of cool and moist conditions associated with this upper pattern will alleviate most fire weather concerns across the eastern CONUS through the extended period. Ridging will result in warm and dry conditions across much of the western CONUS during the period. While critically dry fuels are mostly sparse across the western CONUS presently, this extended warm/dry period may result in larger regions of critically dry fuels (particularly fine fuels) by the end of the weekend when the next trough crosses the western CONUS. At this time the forecast winds/relative humidity are not strong/dry enough to warrant any Critical probabilities, especially given the questionable/sparse dry fuels presently. ..Bentley.. 09/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0442 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 031200Z Hurricane Helene will pull tropical moisture northward and absorb into a cutoff upper low in the Tennessee Valley region on Friday. This cutoff low will remain through at least Saturday before the pattern becomes more progressive. The combination of cool and moist conditions associated with this upper pattern will alleviate most fire weather concerns across the eastern CONUS through the extended period. Ridging will result in warm and dry conditions across much of the western CONUS during the period. While critically dry fuels are mostly sparse across the western CONUS presently, this extended warm/dry period may result in larger regions of critically dry fuels (particularly fine fuels) by the end of the weekend when the next trough crosses the western CONUS. At this time the forecast winds/relative humidity are not strong/dry enough to warrant any Critical probabilities, especially given the questionable/sparse dry fuels presently. ..Bentley.. 09/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more