Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 09/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0113 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... A trough will traverse the northern portion of the western US ridge today, bringing enhanced mid-level flow over the Cascades into western Washington and Oregon. Across southwestern Oregon, sustained winds around 15-20 mph will overlap relative humidity reductions to around 20-25 percent. Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible. Receptive fuels in this region are spotty, which leads to low confidence in including an area at this time. In the lee of the Bighorn Mountains in Wyoming, some Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions will be possible. Overall, sustained Elevated to Critical wind speeds appear brief and localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 2 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0823 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Valid 251300Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE GULF COAST INTO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible this afternoon from parts of the Southeast and central/southern Appalachians to the Texas/Louisiana Gulf Coast. Some tornado threat may develop across the Florida Peninsula by this evening, in association with Tropical Cyclone Helene. ...Southeast and southern Appalachians... Widespread precipitation is expected from parts of the Southeast into the southern Appalachians, due to the combined influence of the mid/upper-level flow to the west and moisture streaming north from the Gulf of Mexico and Helene. While this will tend to limit available buoyancy in some areas, strong to locally severe storms will be possible with initial development, with preconvective MLCAPE of around 1000 J/kg possible. This will generally be coincident with favorable deep-layer shear, especially across the southern Appalachians vicinity where a few supercells could occur pending sufficient destabilization. Locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado could accompany the strongest storms, before low/mid-level lapse rates and buoyancy become increasingly weak with time, and an outflow-reinforced front sags southward across the region. ...Texas Gulf Coast/Middle Gulf Coast... Somewhat stronger diurnal destabilization will be possible from parts of central/east Texas into Louisiana, and perhaps into Mississippi, with MLCAPE potentially increasing above 1500 J/kg. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development will be possible near a southward-moving cold front. Effective shear will generally range from 25-35 kt, and a few modestly organized storms are possible. Isolated damaging gusts could accompany the strongest storms within this regime. ...Florida Peninsula and Keys... Helene's wind field is forecast to be rather large, especially on the east side of the circulation, associated with what is expected to be a strengthening Helene through the afternoon and night. Reference the National Hurricane Center for the latest Helene details. This scenario will result in modestly strengthening low-level shear/SRH across the Florida Peninsula during the day, but more so into the evening and overnight after the peak diurnal instability cycle. Instability will likely remain rather weak overall, and details regarding the intensity of any outer rain bands remain uncertain. However, some tropical-cyclone tornado threat could evolve across parts of the Florida Peninsula and Keys, mainly into tonight. ...Eastern Washington/northern Idaho/northwest Montana... While buoyancy is expected to remain quite weak, relatively steep mid-level lapse rates will support thunderstorm potential late this afternoon through early evening from eastern Washington into northern Idaho and northwest Montana, in advance of the approaching shortwave trough. Most guidance suggests that instability will remain too weak for an organized severe threat, although rather strong deep-layer flow/shear could support a strong storm or two with locally gusty winds and small hail. Subsequent outlooks will reevaluate the possibility of introducing low severe probabilities. ...Upper Ohio Valley to the Lower Great Lakes... Weak to locally moderate buoyancy may develop later today from parts of the upper Ohio Valley into the lower Great Lakes region, between a weakening cold front approaching from the west, and a slow-moving warm front draped from central Pennsylvania into western New York. Moderate southwesterly midlevel flow will support effective shear of 35-45 kt, sufficient for storm organization. However, with persistent cloud cover and mid-level lapse rates expected to remain rather weak, storm intensity and any attendant severe threat could be relatively limited. Confidence in sufficient destabilization remains too low to add severe probabilities. ..Guyer/Broyles.. 09/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 2 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0823 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Valid 251300Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE GULF COAST INTO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible this afternoon from parts of the Southeast and central/southern Appalachians to the Texas/Louisiana Gulf Coast. Some tornado threat may develop across the Florida Peninsula by this evening, in association with Tropical Cyclone Helene. ...Southeast and southern Appalachians... Widespread precipitation is expected from parts of the Southeast into the southern Appalachians, due to the combined influence of the mid/upper-level flow to the west and moisture streaming north from the Gulf of Mexico and Helene. While this will tend to limit available buoyancy in some areas, strong to locally severe storms will be possible with initial development, with preconvective MLCAPE of around 1000 J/kg possible. This will generally be coincident with favorable deep-layer shear, especially across the southern Appalachians vicinity where a few supercells could occur pending sufficient destabilization. Locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado could accompany the strongest storms, before low/mid-level lapse rates and buoyancy become increasingly weak with time, and an outflow-reinforced front sags southward across the region. ...Texas Gulf Coast/Middle Gulf Coast... Somewhat stronger diurnal destabilization will be possible from parts of central/east Texas into Louisiana, and perhaps into Mississippi, with MLCAPE potentially increasing above 1500 J/kg. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development will be possible near a southward-moving cold front. Effective shear will generally range from 25-35 kt, and a few modestly organized storms are possible. Isolated damaging gusts could accompany the strongest storms within this regime. ...Florida Peninsula and Keys... Helene's wind field is forecast to be rather large, especially on the east side of the circulation, associated with what is expected to be a strengthening Helene through the afternoon and night. Reference the National Hurricane Center for the latest Helene details. This scenario will result in modestly strengthening low-level shear/SRH across the Florida Peninsula during the day, but more so into the evening and overnight after the peak diurnal instability cycle. Instability will likely remain rather weak overall, and details regarding the intensity of any outer rain bands remain uncertain. However, some tropical-cyclone tornado threat could evolve across parts of the Florida Peninsula and Keys, mainly into tonight. ...Eastern Washington/northern Idaho/northwest Montana... While buoyancy is expected to remain quite weak, relatively steep mid-level lapse rates will support thunderstorm potential late this afternoon through early evening from eastern Washington into northern Idaho and northwest Montana, in advance of the approaching shortwave trough. Most guidance suggests that instability will remain too weak for an organized severe threat, although rather strong deep-layer flow/shear could support a strong storm or two with locally gusty winds and small hail. Subsequent outlooks will reevaluate the possibility of introducing low severe probabilities. ...Upper Ohio Valley to the Lower Great Lakes... Weak to locally moderate buoyancy may develop later today from parts of the upper Ohio Valley into the lower Great Lakes region, between a weakening cold front approaching from the west, and a slow-moving warm front draped from central Pennsylvania into western New York. Moderate southwesterly midlevel flow will support effective shear of 35-45 kt, sufficient for storm organization. However, with persistent cloud cover and mid-level lapse rates expected to remain rather weak, storm intensity and any attendant severe threat could be relatively limited. Confidence in sufficient destabilization remains too low to add severe probabilities. ..Guyer/Broyles.. 09/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 2 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0823 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Valid 251300Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE GULF COAST INTO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible this afternoon from parts of the Southeast and central/southern Appalachians to the Texas/Louisiana Gulf Coast. Some tornado threat may develop across the Florida Peninsula by this evening, in association with Tropical Cyclone Helene. ...Southeast and southern Appalachians... Widespread precipitation is expected from parts of the Southeast into the southern Appalachians, due to the combined influence of the mid/upper-level flow to the west and moisture streaming north from the Gulf of Mexico and Helene. While this will tend to limit available buoyancy in some areas, strong to locally severe storms will be possible with initial development, with preconvective MLCAPE of around 1000 J/kg possible. This will generally be coincident with favorable deep-layer shear, especially across the southern Appalachians vicinity where a few supercells could occur pending sufficient destabilization. Locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado could accompany the strongest storms, before low/mid-level lapse rates and buoyancy become increasingly weak with time, and an outflow-reinforced front sags southward across the region. ...Texas Gulf Coast/Middle Gulf Coast... Somewhat stronger diurnal destabilization will be possible from parts of central/east Texas into Louisiana, and perhaps into Mississippi, with MLCAPE potentially increasing above 1500 J/kg. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development will be possible near a southward-moving cold front. Effective shear will generally range from 25-35 kt, and a few modestly organized storms are possible. Isolated damaging gusts could accompany the strongest storms within this regime. ...Florida Peninsula and Keys... Helene's wind field is forecast to be rather large, especially on the east side of the circulation, associated with what is expected to be a strengthening Helene through the afternoon and night. Reference the National Hurricane Center for the latest Helene details. This scenario will result in modestly strengthening low-level shear/SRH across the Florida Peninsula during the day, but more so into the evening and overnight after the peak diurnal instability cycle. Instability will likely remain rather weak overall, and details regarding the intensity of any outer rain bands remain uncertain. However, some tropical-cyclone tornado threat could evolve across parts of the Florida Peninsula and Keys, mainly into tonight. ...Eastern Washington/northern Idaho/northwest Montana... While buoyancy is expected to remain quite weak, relatively steep mid-level lapse rates will support thunderstorm potential late this afternoon through early evening from eastern Washington into northern Idaho and northwest Montana, in advance of the approaching shortwave trough. Most guidance suggests that instability will remain too weak for an organized severe threat, although rather strong deep-layer flow/shear could support a strong storm or two with locally gusty winds and small hail. Subsequent outlooks will reevaluate the possibility of introducing low severe probabilities. ...Upper Ohio Valley to the Lower Great Lakes... Weak to locally moderate buoyancy may develop later today from parts of the upper Ohio Valley into the lower Great Lakes region, between a weakening cold front approaching from the west, and a slow-moving warm front draped from central Pennsylvania into western New York. Moderate southwesterly midlevel flow will support effective shear of 35-45 kt, sufficient for storm organization. However, with persistent cloud cover and mid-level lapse rates expected to remain rather weak, storm intensity and any attendant severe threat could be relatively limited. Confidence in sufficient destabilization remains too low to add severe probabilities. ..Guyer/Broyles.. 09/25/2024 Read more

MD 2107 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX
Mesoscale Discussion 2107 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0305 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Areas affected...Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 250805Z - 251000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...An isolated large hail and wind-damage threat may persist for another hour or two as a small complex of storms moves into the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex. The severe threat area is expected to remain small, and watch issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...The latest high-resolution radar imagery shows a small cluster of strong to severe storms located just to the north of the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex. RAP analysis suggests that the airmass is moderately unstable with MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg. The latest WSR-88D VWP from Fort Worth has 0-6 km shear near 45 knots, with gradually veering winds in the low to mid-levels. In addition, RAP forecast soundings have steep mid-level lapse rates around 700 mb. This should be enough to continue an isolated large-hail threat with transient supercell structures embedded in the cluster. An isolated wind-damage threat may also accompany the leading edge of the more intense cells. The threats are expected to continue for another hour or two. ..Broyles/Leitman.. 09/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD... LAT...LON 33259646 32999616 32719612 32419633 32279664 32279704 32409731 32569742 32969741 33239715 33259646 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0238 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe potential is expected to remain low during the Day 4-8 period. The upper cyclone over the Mid-South on Day 4/Sat slowly weaken an meander east/northeast through Day 5/Sun. General upper troughing over the eastern third of the CONUS will then be reinforced by a shortwave trough developing east from the northern Plains to the Northeast Days 6-8/Mon-Wed. As this shortwave trough shifts east early next week, a surface cold front will sweep across the Midwest. However, severe potential associated with this system will be mitigated by weak instability and poor alignment of stronger vertical shear. Meanwhile, an upper ridge will persist over the Great Basin and portions of the Plains, with generally weak deep-layer flow expected across these areas. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0238 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe potential is expected to remain low during the Day 4-8 period. The upper cyclone over the Mid-South on Day 4/Sat slowly weaken an meander east/northeast through Day 5/Sun. General upper troughing over the eastern third of the CONUS will then be reinforced by a shortwave trough developing east from the northern Plains to the Northeast Days 6-8/Mon-Wed. As this shortwave trough shifts east early next week, a surface cold front will sweep across the Midwest. However, severe potential associated with this system will be mitigated by weak instability and poor alignment of stronger vertical shear. Meanwhile, an upper ridge will persist over the Great Basin and portions of the Plains, with generally weak deep-layer flow expected across these areas. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0238 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe potential is expected to remain low during the Day 4-8 period. The upper cyclone over the Mid-South on Day 4/Sat slowly weaken an meander east/northeast through Day 5/Sun. General upper troughing over the eastern third of the CONUS will then be reinforced by a shortwave trough developing east from the northern Plains to the Northeast Days 6-8/Mon-Wed. As this shortwave trough shifts east early next week, a surface cold front will sweep across the Midwest. However, severe potential associated with this system will be mitigated by weak instability and poor alignment of stronger vertical shear. Meanwhile, an upper ridge will persist over the Great Basin and portions of the Plains, with generally weak deep-layer flow expected across these areas. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0238 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe potential is expected to remain low during the Day 4-8 period. The upper cyclone over the Mid-South on Day 4/Sat slowly weaken an meander east/northeast through Day 5/Sun. General upper troughing over the eastern third of the CONUS will then be reinforced by a shortwave trough developing east from the northern Plains to the Northeast Days 6-8/Mon-Wed. As this shortwave trough shifts east early next week, a surface cold front will sweep across the Midwest. However, severe potential associated with this system will be mitigated by weak instability and poor alignment of stronger vertical shear. Meanwhile, an upper ridge will persist over the Great Basin and portions of the Plains, with generally weak deep-layer flow expected across these areas. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0238 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe potential is expected to remain low during the Day 4-8 period. The upper cyclone over the Mid-South on Day 4/Sat slowly weaken an meander east/northeast through Day 5/Sun. General upper troughing over the eastern third of the CONUS will then be reinforced by a shortwave trough developing east from the northern Plains to the Northeast Days 6-8/Mon-Wed. As this shortwave trough shifts east early next week, a surface cold front will sweep across the Midwest. However, severe potential associated with this system will be mitigated by weak instability and poor alignment of stronger vertical shear. Meanwhile, an upper ridge will persist over the Great Basin and portions of the Plains, with generally weak deep-layer flow expected across these areas. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0238 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe potential is expected to remain low during the Day 4-8 period. The upper cyclone over the Mid-South on Day 4/Sat slowly weaken an meander east/northeast through Day 5/Sun. General upper troughing over the eastern third of the CONUS will then be reinforced by a shortwave trough developing east from the northern Plains to the Northeast Days 6-8/Mon-Wed. As this shortwave trough shifts east early next week, a surface cold front will sweep across the Midwest. However, severe potential associated with this system will be mitigated by weak instability and poor alignment of stronger vertical shear. Meanwhile, an upper ridge will persist over the Great Basin and portions of the Plains, with generally weak deep-layer flow expected across these areas. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA INTO SOUTHERN VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... A risk for a couple of tornadoes and damaging thunderstorm wind gusts exists across parts of North Carolina into southern Virginia on Friday. ...NC/VA... Strong low to midlevel southeasterly flow fields associated with the remnants of Tropical Cyclone Helene will persist through Friday afternoon across the southern Mid-Atlantic vicinity. Onshore low-level flow will maintain a high theta-e airmass, with surface dewpoints in the mid 70s F expected. Forecast soundings across the area show favorable low-level hodographs supporting rotation within cells in northwest moving convective bands. While lapse rates will remain poor, rich boundary-layer moisture should provide enough low-level instability to support occasional strong gusts and a couple of tornadoes through late afternoon/early evening. The northward extent of severe potential will be limited by weakening deep-layer flow beyond the 21-00z time frame and a cold front sagging southeast across VA. ..Leitman.. 09/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA INTO SOUTHERN VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... A risk for a couple of tornadoes and damaging thunderstorm wind gusts exists across parts of North Carolina into southern Virginia on Friday. ...NC/VA... Strong low to midlevel southeasterly flow fields associated with the remnants of Tropical Cyclone Helene will persist through Friday afternoon across the southern Mid-Atlantic vicinity. Onshore low-level flow will maintain a high theta-e airmass, with surface dewpoints in the mid 70s F expected. Forecast soundings across the area show favorable low-level hodographs supporting rotation within cells in northwest moving convective bands. While lapse rates will remain poor, rich boundary-layer moisture should provide enough low-level instability to support occasional strong gusts and a couple of tornadoes through late afternoon/early evening. The northward extent of severe potential will be limited by weakening deep-layer flow beyond the 21-00z time frame and a cold front sagging southeast across VA. ..Leitman.. 09/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA INTO SOUTHERN VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... A risk for a couple of tornadoes and damaging thunderstorm wind gusts exists across parts of North Carolina into southern Virginia on Friday. ...NC/VA... Strong low to midlevel southeasterly flow fields associated with the remnants of Tropical Cyclone Helene will persist through Friday afternoon across the southern Mid-Atlantic vicinity. Onshore low-level flow will maintain a high theta-e airmass, with surface dewpoints in the mid 70s F expected. Forecast soundings across the area show favorable low-level hodographs supporting rotation within cells in northwest moving convective bands. While lapse rates will remain poor, rich boundary-layer moisture should provide enough low-level instability to support occasional strong gusts and a couple of tornadoes through late afternoon/early evening. The northward extent of severe potential will be limited by weakening deep-layer flow beyond the 21-00z time frame and a cold front sagging southeast across VA. ..Leitman.. 09/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA INTO SOUTHERN VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... A risk for a couple of tornadoes and damaging thunderstorm wind gusts exists across parts of North Carolina into southern Virginia on Friday. ...NC/VA... Strong low to midlevel southeasterly flow fields associated with the remnants of Tropical Cyclone Helene will persist through Friday afternoon across the southern Mid-Atlantic vicinity. Onshore low-level flow will maintain a high theta-e airmass, with surface dewpoints in the mid 70s F expected. Forecast soundings across the area show favorable low-level hodographs supporting rotation within cells in northwest moving convective bands. While lapse rates will remain poor, rich boundary-layer moisture should provide enough low-level instability to support occasional strong gusts and a couple of tornadoes through late afternoon/early evening. The northward extent of severe potential will be limited by weakening deep-layer flow beyond the 21-00z time frame and a cold front sagging southeast across VA. ..Leitman.. 09/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA INTO SOUTHERN VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... A risk for a couple of tornadoes and damaging thunderstorm wind gusts exists across parts of North Carolina into southern Virginia on Friday. ...NC/VA... Strong low to midlevel southeasterly flow fields associated with the remnants of Tropical Cyclone Helene will persist through Friday afternoon across the southern Mid-Atlantic vicinity. Onshore low-level flow will maintain a high theta-e airmass, with surface dewpoints in the mid 70s F expected. Forecast soundings across the area show favorable low-level hodographs supporting rotation within cells in northwest moving convective bands. While lapse rates will remain poor, rich boundary-layer moisture should provide enough low-level instability to support occasional strong gusts and a couple of tornadoes through late afternoon/early evening. The northward extent of severe potential will be limited by weakening deep-layer flow beyond the 21-00z time frame and a cold front sagging southeast across VA. ..Leitman.. 09/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA INTO SOUTHERN VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... A risk for a couple of tornadoes and damaging thunderstorm wind gusts exists across parts of North Carolina into southern Virginia on Friday. ...NC/VA... Strong low to midlevel southeasterly flow fields associated with the remnants of Tropical Cyclone Helene will persist through Friday afternoon across the southern Mid-Atlantic vicinity. Onshore low-level flow will maintain a high theta-e airmass, with surface dewpoints in the mid 70s F expected. Forecast soundings across the area show favorable low-level hodographs supporting rotation within cells in northwest moving convective bands. While lapse rates will remain poor, rich boundary-layer moisture should provide enough low-level instability to support occasional strong gusts and a couple of tornadoes through late afternoon/early evening. The northward extent of severe potential will be limited by weakening deep-layer flow beyond the 21-00z time frame and a cold front sagging southeast across VA. ..Leitman.. 09/25/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be low on Thursday. Hurricane Helene will be absorbed into the upper-level flow across the eastern US with widespread rainfall anticipated. Across the central and western US, a ridge of high pressure will remain in place with generally light winds. As such, no overlap of critically dry fuels with Elevated/Critical conditions is expected. ..Thornton.. 09/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be low on Thursday. Hurricane Helene will be absorbed into the upper-level flow across the eastern US with widespread rainfall anticipated. Across the central and western US, a ridge of high pressure will remain in place with generally light winds. As such, no overlap of critically dry fuels with Elevated/Critical conditions is expected. ..Thornton.. 09/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be low on Thursday. Hurricane Helene will be absorbed into the upper-level flow across the eastern US with widespread rainfall anticipated. Across the central and western US, a ridge of high pressure will remain in place with generally light winds. As such, no overlap of critically dry fuels with Elevated/Critical conditions is expected. ..Thornton.. 09/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more