Severe Storms

MD 2108 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS TO CENTRAL GEORGIA
Mesoscale Discussion 2108 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Areas affected...southwestern Virginia and the western Carolinas to central Georgia Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 251926Z - 252130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated strong storms -- a few of which reaching severe levels -- are expected near and east of the higher terrain of the Appalachians. All-hazards severe risk -- including a brief tornado or two -- will be possible with the strongest of these storms, but coverage of the more substantial convection may preclude the need for WW issuance. DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery shows high cloudiness expanding across the pre-frontal warm sector at this time, though until now, ample heating has resulted in modest destabilization (around 1000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE) near and just ahead of the slowly advancing cold front. Convection continues to gradually increase across the area, with one particularly organized storm now affecting the Habersham/Rabun County Georgia area, and -- soon -- portions of Oconee County South Carolina. The somewhat modest warm-sector CAPE is being partially offset -- in terms of potential for robust convection -- by relatively strong southwesterlies at mid levels southeast/east of the upper low near the confluence of the Ohio and Mississippi Rivers. This flow, atop low-level southeasterlies, is providing shear sufficient for both mid-level and -- to some degree -- low-level rotation. Though overall coverage of the more robust storms is expected to remain limited, the area bears watching given the favorable kinematic environment. While current expectations are that a WW will not be required, we will continue to monitor convective evolution and possible/additional destabilization this afternoon. ..Goss/Guyer.. 09/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC... LAT...LON 32858455 35038307 37168089 36938007 35928020 33098306 32678379 32858455 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 09/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be low on Thursday. Hurricane Helene will be absorbed into the upper-level flow across the eastern US with widespread rainfall anticipated. Across the central and western US, a ridge of high pressure will remain in place with generally light winds. As such, no overlap of critically dry fuels with Elevated/Critical conditions is expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 09/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be low on Thursday. Hurricane Helene will be absorbed into the upper-level flow across the eastern US with widespread rainfall anticipated. Across the central and western US, a ridge of high pressure will remain in place with generally light winds. As such, no overlap of critically dry fuels with Elevated/Critical conditions is expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 09/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be low on Thursday. Hurricane Helene will be absorbed into the upper-level flow across the eastern US with widespread rainfall anticipated. Across the central and western US, a ridge of high pressure will remain in place with generally light winds. As such, no overlap of critically dry fuels with Elevated/Critical conditions is expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 09/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be low on Thursday. Hurricane Helene will be absorbed into the upper-level flow across the eastern US with widespread rainfall anticipated. Across the central and western US, a ridge of high pressure will remain in place with generally light winds. As such, no overlap of critically dry fuels with Elevated/Critical conditions is expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 09/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be low on Thursday. Hurricane Helene will be absorbed into the upper-level flow across the eastern US with widespread rainfall anticipated. Across the central and western US, a ridge of high pressure will remain in place with generally light winds. As such, no overlap of critically dry fuels with Elevated/Critical conditions is expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 09/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be low on Thursday. Hurricane Helene will be absorbed into the upper-level flow across the eastern US with widespread rainfall anticipated. Across the central and western US, a ridge of high pressure will remain in place with generally light winds. As such, no overlap of critically dry fuels with Elevated/Critical conditions is expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 09/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be low on Thursday. Hurricane Helene will be absorbed into the upper-level flow across the eastern US with widespread rainfall anticipated. Across the central and western US, a ridge of high pressure will remain in place with generally light winds. As such, no overlap of critically dry fuels with Elevated/Critical conditions is expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE CAROLINAS AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... A risk for a couple of tornadoes and damaging thunderstorm wind gusts exists from the central Appalachians into the Carolinas and southern Virginia. ...Synopsis... Upper ridging centered over the Southwest/northern Mexico is forecast to remain in place on Friday, with some modest northward expansion possible. To the east of this ridging, complex interaction is expected between a cold-core upper low initially over the Mid-South and Tropical Cyclone Helene, which will likely be centered over northern GA. Strong westerlies will remain along and north of the US/Canada border, and stable conditions will persist west of the Mississippi River. As such, tornadoes and strong convective gusts associated with Helene will constitute the only severe risk across the CONUS on Friday. ...Central Appalachians into the Carolinas and southern VA... Strong low to mid level flow will persist throughout the eastern periphery of Helene on Friday, over an area characterized by low to mid 70s dewpoints and modest buoyancy. This modest buoyancy could support some deeper convective cores, particularly within any rainbands. The combination of deeper, more persistent updrafts with the strong low to mid level flow could support strong, convectively augmented gusts and/or a few tornadoes. ..Mosier.. 09/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE CAROLINAS AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... A risk for a couple of tornadoes and damaging thunderstorm wind gusts exists from the central Appalachians into the Carolinas and southern Virginia. ...Synopsis... Upper ridging centered over the Southwest/northern Mexico is forecast to remain in place on Friday, with some modest northward expansion possible. To the east of this ridging, complex interaction is expected between a cold-core upper low initially over the Mid-South and Tropical Cyclone Helene, which will likely be centered over northern GA. Strong westerlies will remain along and north of the US/Canada border, and stable conditions will persist west of the Mississippi River. As such, tornadoes and strong convective gusts associated with Helene will constitute the only severe risk across the CONUS on Friday. ...Central Appalachians into the Carolinas and southern VA... Strong low to mid level flow will persist throughout the eastern periphery of Helene on Friday, over an area characterized by low to mid 70s dewpoints and modest buoyancy. This modest buoyancy could support some deeper convective cores, particularly within any rainbands. The combination of deeper, more persistent updrafts with the strong low to mid level flow could support strong, convectively augmented gusts and/or a few tornadoes. ..Mosier.. 09/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE CAROLINAS AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... A risk for a couple of tornadoes and damaging thunderstorm wind gusts exists from the central Appalachians into the Carolinas and southern Virginia. ...Synopsis... Upper ridging centered over the Southwest/northern Mexico is forecast to remain in place on Friday, with some modest northward expansion possible. To the east of this ridging, complex interaction is expected between a cold-core upper low initially over the Mid-South and Tropical Cyclone Helene, which will likely be centered over northern GA. Strong westerlies will remain along and north of the US/Canada border, and stable conditions will persist west of the Mississippi River. As such, tornadoes and strong convective gusts associated with Helene will constitute the only severe risk across the CONUS on Friday. ...Central Appalachians into the Carolinas and southern VA... Strong low to mid level flow will persist throughout the eastern periphery of Helene on Friday, over an area characterized by low to mid 70s dewpoints and modest buoyancy. This modest buoyancy could support some deeper convective cores, particularly within any rainbands. The combination of deeper, more persistent updrafts with the strong low to mid level flow could support strong, convectively augmented gusts and/or a few tornadoes. ..Mosier.. 09/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE CAROLINAS AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... A risk for a couple of tornadoes and damaging thunderstorm wind gusts exists from the central Appalachians into the Carolinas and southern Virginia. ...Synopsis... Upper ridging centered over the Southwest/northern Mexico is forecast to remain in place on Friday, with some modest northward expansion possible. To the east of this ridging, complex interaction is expected between a cold-core upper low initially over the Mid-South and Tropical Cyclone Helene, which will likely be centered over northern GA. Strong westerlies will remain along and north of the US/Canada border, and stable conditions will persist west of the Mississippi River. As such, tornadoes and strong convective gusts associated with Helene will constitute the only severe risk across the CONUS on Friday. ...Central Appalachians into the Carolinas and southern VA... Strong low to mid level flow will persist throughout the eastern periphery of Helene on Friday, over an area characterized by low to mid 70s dewpoints and modest buoyancy. This modest buoyancy could support some deeper convective cores, particularly within any rainbands. The combination of deeper, more persistent updrafts with the strong low to mid level flow could support strong, convectively augmented gusts and/or a few tornadoes. ..Mosier.. 09/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE CAROLINAS AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... A risk for a couple of tornadoes and damaging thunderstorm wind gusts exists from the central Appalachians into the Carolinas and southern Virginia. ...Synopsis... Upper ridging centered over the Southwest/northern Mexico is forecast to remain in place on Friday, with some modest northward expansion possible. To the east of this ridging, complex interaction is expected between a cold-core upper low initially over the Mid-South and Tropical Cyclone Helene, which will likely be centered over northern GA. Strong westerlies will remain along and north of the US/Canada border, and stable conditions will persist west of the Mississippi River. As such, tornadoes and strong convective gusts associated with Helene will constitute the only severe risk across the CONUS on Friday. ...Central Appalachians into the Carolinas and southern VA... Strong low to mid level flow will persist throughout the eastern periphery of Helene on Friday, over an area characterized by low to mid 70s dewpoints and modest buoyancy. This modest buoyancy could support some deeper convective cores, particularly within any rainbands. The combination of deeper, more persistent updrafts with the strong low to mid level flow could support strong, convectively augmented gusts and/or a few tornadoes. ..Mosier.. 09/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE CAROLINAS AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... A risk for a couple of tornadoes and damaging thunderstorm wind gusts exists from the central Appalachians into the Carolinas and southern Virginia. ...Synopsis... Upper ridging centered over the Southwest/northern Mexico is forecast to remain in place on Friday, with some modest northward expansion possible. To the east of this ridging, complex interaction is expected between a cold-core upper low initially over the Mid-South and Tropical Cyclone Helene, which will likely be centered over northern GA. Strong westerlies will remain along and north of the US/Canada border, and stable conditions will persist west of the Mississippi River. As such, tornadoes and strong convective gusts associated with Helene will constitute the only severe risk across the CONUS on Friday. ...Central Appalachians into the Carolinas and southern VA... Strong low to mid level flow will persist throughout the eastern periphery of Helene on Friday, over an area characterized by low to mid 70s dewpoints and modest buoyancy. This modest buoyancy could support some deeper convective cores, particularly within any rainbands. The combination of deeper, more persistent updrafts with the strong low to mid level flow could support strong, convectively augmented gusts and/or a few tornadoes. ..Mosier.. 09/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE CAROLINAS AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... A risk for a couple of tornadoes and damaging thunderstorm wind gusts exists from the central Appalachians into the Carolinas and southern Virginia. ...Synopsis... Upper ridging centered over the Southwest/northern Mexico is forecast to remain in place on Friday, with some modest northward expansion possible. To the east of this ridging, complex interaction is expected between a cold-core upper low initially over the Mid-South and Tropical Cyclone Helene, which will likely be centered over northern GA. Strong westerlies will remain along and north of the US/Canada border, and stable conditions will persist west of the Mississippi River. As such, tornadoes and strong convective gusts associated with Helene will constitute the only severe risk across the CONUS on Friday. ...Central Appalachians into the Carolinas and southern VA... Strong low to mid level flow will persist throughout the eastern periphery of Helene on Friday, over an area characterized by low to mid 70s dewpoints and modest buoyancy. This modest buoyancy could support some deeper convective cores, particularly within any rainbands. The combination of deeper, more persistent updrafts with the strong low to mid level flow could support strong, convectively augmented gusts and/or a few tornadoes. ..Mosier.. 09/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE CAROLINAS AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... A risk for a couple of tornadoes and damaging thunderstorm wind gusts exists from the central Appalachians into the Carolinas and southern Virginia. ...Synopsis... Upper ridging centered over the Southwest/northern Mexico is forecast to remain in place on Friday, with some modest northward expansion possible. To the east of this ridging, complex interaction is expected between a cold-core upper low initially over the Mid-South and Tropical Cyclone Helene, which will likely be centered over northern GA. Strong westerlies will remain along and north of the US/Canada border, and stable conditions will persist west of the Mississippi River. As such, tornadoes and strong convective gusts associated with Helene will constitute the only severe risk across the CONUS on Friday. ...Central Appalachians into the Carolinas and southern VA... Strong low to mid level flow will persist throughout the eastern periphery of Helene on Friday, over an area characterized by low to mid 70s dewpoints and modest buoyancy. This modest buoyancy could support some deeper convective cores, particularly within any rainbands. The combination of deeper, more persistent updrafts with the strong low to mid level flow could support strong, convectively augmented gusts and/or a few tornadoes. ..Mosier.. 09/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Tropical Cyclone Helene is forecast to move inland across northern Florida and Georgia on Thursday. A risk for tropical-cyclone tornadoes will accompany this system, particularly from the central Florida Peninsula into southeast Georgia and parts of the Midlands and Low Country of South Carolina. ...FL/GA/SC/southeast NC... Latest forecast track guidance from the National Hurricane Center has Hurricane Helene over the eastern Gulf of Mexico (about 225 miles west-southwest of SRQ) early Thursday morning. This system is forecast to continue northward and make landfall in the FL Big Bend vicinity just east of AAF Thursday evening. As the storm moves northward throughout the day, the strong wind field accompanying it will expand northward as well, beginning over the FL Peninsula Thursday morning before reaching into GA during the afternoon and into SC by Thursday evening. These increased winds will result in long, looping hodographs with more than enough low-level shear to support tornadogenesis. As such, buoyancy-related updraft strength/persistence will be the primary factor determining thunderstorm severity and overall tornado potential and frequency. Initial rainbands will likely be impacting the west coast of the FL Peninsula at the beginning of the period before gradually spreading northward/northeastward throughout the day as the system moves northward. Tornadoes are most likely within the low-topped convection within these rainbands, so a low-probability tornado risk will begin early across the FL Peninsula before spreading northeastward over time. A relatively greater tornado risk is anticipated later, with best overlap between these rainbands and the strong low/mid-level flow beginning over FL during the late afternoon and moving into GA and SC during the evening and overnight. Highest tornado potential is still anticipated across coastal GA and SC Low Country after 00Z Friday. ...Southern New England/Hudson Valley... A compact upper low is forecast to progress eastward across southern Quebec and adjacent portions of New England on Thursday. Strong large-scale forcing for ascent will aid in the development of a convective line during the afternoon from southern New England into the Hudson Valley. Buoyancy will be modest, but enhanced mid-level flow through the base of the upper low will support moderate to strong deep-layer vertical shear. Consequently, a few stronger storms capable of damaging gusts are possible. Overall coverage of damaging gusts is currently expected to remain below 5%. ..Mosier.. 09/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Tropical Cyclone Helene is forecast to move inland across northern Florida and Georgia on Thursday. A risk for tropical-cyclone tornadoes will accompany this system, particularly from the central Florida Peninsula into southeast Georgia and parts of the Midlands and Low Country of South Carolina. ...FL/GA/SC/southeast NC... Latest forecast track guidance from the National Hurricane Center has Hurricane Helene over the eastern Gulf of Mexico (about 225 miles west-southwest of SRQ) early Thursday morning. This system is forecast to continue northward and make landfall in the FL Big Bend vicinity just east of AAF Thursday evening. As the storm moves northward throughout the day, the strong wind field accompanying it will expand northward as well, beginning over the FL Peninsula Thursday morning before reaching into GA during the afternoon and into SC by Thursday evening. These increased winds will result in long, looping hodographs with more than enough low-level shear to support tornadogenesis. As such, buoyancy-related updraft strength/persistence will be the primary factor determining thunderstorm severity and overall tornado potential and frequency. Initial rainbands will likely be impacting the west coast of the FL Peninsula at the beginning of the period before gradually spreading northward/northeastward throughout the day as the system moves northward. Tornadoes are most likely within the low-topped convection within these rainbands, so a low-probability tornado risk will begin early across the FL Peninsula before spreading northeastward over time. A relatively greater tornado risk is anticipated later, with best overlap between these rainbands and the strong low/mid-level flow beginning over FL during the late afternoon and moving into GA and SC during the evening and overnight. Highest tornado potential is still anticipated across coastal GA and SC Low Country after 00Z Friday. ...Southern New England/Hudson Valley... A compact upper low is forecast to progress eastward across southern Quebec and adjacent portions of New England on Thursday. Strong large-scale forcing for ascent will aid in the development of a convective line during the afternoon from southern New England into the Hudson Valley. Buoyancy will be modest, but enhanced mid-level flow through the base of the upper low will support moderate to strong deep-layer vertical shear. Consequently, a few stronger storms capable of damaging gusts are possible. Overall coverage of damaging gusts is currently expected to remain below 5%. ..Mosier.. 09/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Tropical Cyclone Helene is forecast to move inland across northern Florida and Georgia on Thursday. A risk for tropical-cyclone tornadoes will accompany this system, particularly from the central Florida Peninsula into southeast Georgia and parts of the Midlands and Low Country of South Carolina. ...FL/GA/SC/southeast NC... Latest forecast track guidance from the National Hurricane Center has Hurricane Helene over the eastern Gulf of Mexico (about 225 miles west-southwest of SRQ) early Thursday morning. This system is forecast to continue northward and make landfall in the FL Big Bend vicinity just east of AAF Thursday evening. As the storm moves northward throughout the day, the strong wind field accompanying it will expand northward as well, beginning over the FL Peninsula Thursday morning before reaching into GA during the afternoon and into SC by Thursday evening. These increased winds will result in long, looping hodographs with more than enough low-level shear to support tornadogenesis. As such, buoyancy-related updraft strength/persistence will be the primary factor determining thunderstorm severity and overall tornado potential and frequency. Initial rainbands will likely be impacting the west coast of the FL Peninsula at the beginning of the period before gradually spreading northward/northeastward throughout the day as the system moves northward. Tornadoes are most likely within the low-topped convection within these rainbands, so a low-probability tornado risk will begin early across the FL Peninsula before spreading northeastward over time. A relatively greater tornado risk is anticipated later, with best overlap between these rainbands and the strong low/mid-level flow beginning over FL during the late afternoon and moving into GA and SC during the evening and overnight. Highest tornado potential is still anticipated across coastal GA and SC Low Country after 00Z Friday. ...Southern New England/Hudson Valley... A compact upper low is forecast to progress eastward across southern Quebec and adjacent portions of New England on Thursday. Strong large-scale forcing for ascent will aid in the development of a convective line during the afternoon from southern New England into the Hudson Valley. Buoyancy will be modest, but enhanced mid-level flow through the base of the upper low will support moderate to strong deep-layer vertical shear. Consequently, a few stronger storms capable of damaging gusts are possible. Overall coverage of damaging gusts is currently expected to remain below 5%. ..Mosier.. 09/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Tropical Cyclone Helene is forecast to move inland across northern Florida and Georgia on Thursday. A risk for tropical-cyclone tornadoes will accompany this system, particularly from the central Florida Peninsula into southeast Georgia and parts of the Midlands and Low Country of South Carolina. ...FL/GA/SC/southeast NC... Latest forecast track guidance from the National Hurricane Center has Hurricane Helene over the eastern Gulf of Mexico (about 225 miles west-southwest of SRQ) early Thursday morning. This system is forecast to continue northward and make landfall in the FL Big Bend vicinity just east of AAF Thursday evening. As the storm moves northward throughout the day, the strong wind field accompanying it will expand northward as well, beginning over the FL Peninsula Thursday morning before reaching into GA during the afternoon and into SC by Thursday evening. These increased winds will result in long, looping hodographs with more than enough low-level shear to support tornadogenesis. As such, buoyancy-related updraft strength/persistence will be the primary factor determining thunderstorm severity and overall tornado potential and frequency. Initial rainbands will likely be impacting the west coast of the FL Peninsula at the beginning of the period before gradually spreading northward/northeastward throughout the day as the system moves northward. Tornadoes are most likely within the low-topped convection within these rainbands, so a low-probability tornado risk will begin early across the FL Peninsula before spreading northeastward over time. A relatively greater tornado risk is anticipated later, with best overlap between these rainbands and the strong low/mid-level flow beginning over FL during the late afternoon and moving into GA and SC during the evening and overnight. Highest tornado potential is still anticipated across coastal GA and SC Low Country after 00Z Friday. ...Southern New England/Hudson Valley... A compact upper low is forecast to progress eastward across southern Quebec and adjacent portions of New England on Thursday. Strong large-scale forcing for ascent will aid in the development of a convective line during the afternoon from southern New England into the Hudson Valley. Buoyancy will be modest, but enhanced mid-level flow through the base of the upper low will support moderate to strong deep-layer vertical shear. Consequently, a few stronger storms capable of damaging gusts are possible. Overall coverage of damaging gusts is currently expected to remain below 5%. ..Mosier.. 09/25/2024 Read more