Severe Storms

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0104 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE GULF COAST INTO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible later today from parts of the Southeast and central/southern Appalachians to the Texas/Louisiana Gulf Coast. Some tornado threat may develop across the Florida Peninsula by this evening, in association with Tropical Cyclone Helene. ...Synopsis... The upper-level pattern across much of the CONUS will become rather complex today and tonight. Tropical Cyclone Helene is forecast to intensify as a hurricane as it begins to move north-northeastward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico; see NHC forecasts and advisories for more information. A mid/upper-level low that will initially be over the mid MS Valley is expected to slow down and eventually move southward, as it begins to interact with Helene. A northern-stream mid/upper-level trough is expected to amplify as it moves east-southeastward toward the lower Great Lakes region. A seasonably strong mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move across the Northwest through the day and into the evening. ...Parts of the TX Gulf Coast into the Southeast and southern Appalachians... Widespread precipitation is expected from parts of the Southeast into the southern Appalachians, due to the combined influence of the mid/upper-level flow to the west and moisture streaming north from the Gulf of Mexico and Helene. While this will tend to limit available buoyancy with time, a few strong storms will be possible with initial development, with preconvective MLCAPE of around 1000 J/kg and generally favorable deep-layer shear. Locally damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado could accompany the strongest storms, before low/midlevel lapse rates and buoyancy become increasingly weak with time, and an outflow-reinforced front sags southward across the region. Compared to areas farther east, somewhat stronger diurnal destabilization will be possible from parts of central/east TX into LA, and perhaps into MS, with MLCAPE potentially increasing above 1500 J/kg. Isolated to widely scattered storm development will be possible near a southward-moving cold front. Effective shear will generally range from 25-35 kt, and a few modestly organized storms are possible. Isolated damaging gusts could accompany the strongest storms within this regime. ...Florida Peninsula and Keys... Helene's wind field is forecast to be rather large, especially on the east side of the circulation. This will result in strengthening low-level shear/SRH across the Florida Peninsula during the day and especially into the evening/overnight. Instability will likely remain rather weak, and details regarding the intensity of any outer rain bands remain uncertain, but some tropical-cyclone tornado threat could evolve across parts of the peninsula and Keys, especially later in the period. ...Upper Ohio Valley into the lower Great Lakes... Weak to locally moderate buoyancy may develop later today from parts of the upper OH Valley into the lower Great Lakes region, between a weakening cold front approaching from the west, and a slow-moving warm front draped from central PA into western NY. Moderate southwesterly midlevel flow will support effective shear of 35-45 kt, sufficient for storm organization. However, with midlevel lapse rates expected to remain rather weak, storm intensity and any attendant severe threat could be relatively limited. Confidence in sufficient destabilization is too low to add probabilities at this time. ...Eastern WA into northern ID and northwest MT... While buoyancy is expected to remain quite weak, relatively steep midlevel lapse rates will support thunderstorm potential from eastern WA into northern ID and northwest MT, in advance of the approaching shortwave trough. Most guidance suggests that instability will remain too weak for an organized severe threat, though rather strong deep-layer flow/shear could support a strong storm or two with locally gusty winds and small hail. Severe probabilities may eventually be needed if confidence increases regarding the development of sufficient instability. ..Dean/Thornton.. 09/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0104 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE GULF COAST INTO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible later today from parts of the Southeast and central/southern Appalachians to the Texas/Louisiana Gulf Coast. Some tornado threat may develop across the Florida Peninsula by this evening, in association with Tropical Cyclone Helene. ...Synopsis... The upper-level pattern across much of the CONUS will become rather complex today and tonight. Tropical Cyclone Helene is forecast to intensify as a hurricane as it begins to move north-northeastward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico; see NHC forecasts and advisories for more information. A mid/upper-level low that will initially be over the mid MS Valley is expected to slow down and eventually move southward, as it begins to interact with Helene. A northern-stream mid/upper-level trough is expected to amplify as it moves east-southeastward toward the lower Great Lakes region. A seasonably strong mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move across the Northwest through the day and into the evening. ...Parts of the TX Gulf Coast into the Southeast and southern Appalachians... Widespread precipitation is expected from parts of the Southeast into the southern Appalachians, due to the combined influence of the mid/upper-level flow to the west and moisture streaming north from the Gulf of Mexico and Helene. While this will tend to limit available buoyancy with time, a few strong storms will be possible with initial development, with preconvective MLCAPE of around 1000 J/kg and generally favorable deep-layer shear. Locally damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado could accompany the strongest storms, before low/midlevel lapse rates and buoyancy become increasingly weak with time, and an outflow-reinforced front sags southward across the region. Compared to areas farther east, somewhat stronger diurnal destabilization will be possible from parts of central/east TX into LA, and perhaps into MS, with MLCAPE potentially increasing above 1500 J/kg. Isolated to widely scattered storm development will be possible near a southward-moving cold front. Effective shear will generally range from 25-35 kt, and a few modestly organized storms are possible. Isolated damaging gusts could accompany the strongest storms within this regime. ...Florida Peninsula and Keys... Helene's wind field is forecast to be rather large, especially on the east side of the circulation. This will result in strengthening low-level shear/SRH across the Florida Peninsula during the day and especially into the evening/overnight. Instability will likely remain rather weak, and details regarding the intensity of any outer rain bands remain uncertain, but some tropical-cyclone tornado threat could evolve across parts of the peninsula and Keys, especially later in the period. ...Upper Ohio Valley into the lower Great Lakes... Weak to locally moderate buoyancy may develop later today from parts of the upper OH Valley into the lower Great Lakes region, between a weakening cold front approaching from the west, and a slow-moving warm front draped from central PA into western NY. Moderate southwesterly midlevel flow will support effective shear of 35-45 kt, sufficient for storm organization. However, with midlevel lapse rates expected to remain rather weak, storm intensity and any attendant severe threat could be relatively limited. Confidence in sufficient destabilization is too low to add probabilities at this time. ...Eastern WA into northern ID and northwest MT... While buoyancy is expected to remain quite weak, relatively steep midlevel lapse rates will support thunderstorm potential from eastern WA into northern ID and northwest MT, in advance of the approaching shortwave trough. Most guidance suggests that instability will remain too weak for an organized severe threat, though rather strong deep-layer flow/shear could support a strong storm or two with locally gusty winds and small hail. Severe probabilities may eventually be needed if confidence increases regarding the development of sufficient instability. ..Dean/Thornton.. 09/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0104 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE GULF COAST INTO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible later today from parts of the Southeast and central/southern Appalachians to the Texas/Louisiana Gulf Coast. Some tornado threat may develop across the Florida Peninsula by this evening, in association with Tropical Cyclone Helene. ...Synopsis... The upper-level pattern across much of the CONUS will become rather complex today and tonight. Tropical Cyclone Helene is forecast to intensify as a hurricane as it begins to move north-northeastward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico; see NHC forecasts and advisories for more information. A mid/upper-level low that will initially be over the mid MS Valley is expected to slow down and eventually move southward, as it begins to interact with Helene. A northern-stream mid/upper-level trough is expected to amplify as it moves east-southeastward toward the lower Great Lakes region. A seasonably strong mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move across the Northwest through the day and into the evening. ...Parts of the TX Gulf Coast into the Southeast and southern Appalachians... Widespread precipitation is expected from parts of the Southeast into the southern Appalachians, due to the combined influence of the mid/upper-level flow to the west and moisture streaming north from the Gulf of Mexico and Helene. While this will tend to limit available buoyancy with time, a few strong storms will be possible with initial development, with preconvective MLCAPE of around 1000 J/kg and generally favorable deep-layer shear. Locally damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado could accompany the strongest storms, before low/midlevel lapse rates and buoyancy become increasingly weak with time, and an outflow-reinforced front sags southward across the region. Compared to areas farther east, somewhat stronger diurnal destabilization will be possible from parts of central/east TX into LA, and perhaps into MS, with MLCAPE potentially increasing above 1500 J/kg. Isolated to widely scattered storm development will be possible near a southward-moving cold front. Effective shear will generally range from 25-35 kt, and a few modestly organized storms are possible. Isolated damaging gusts could accompany the strongest storms within this regime. ...Florida Peninsula and Keys... Helene's wind field is forecast to be rather large, especially on the east side of the circulation. This will result in strengthening low-level shear/SRH across the Florida Peninsula during the day and especially into the evening/overnight. Instability will likely remain rather weak, and details regarding the intensity of any outer rain bands remain uncertain, but some tropical-cyclone tornado threat could evolve across parts of the peninsula and Keys, especially later in the period. ...Upper Ohio Valley into the lower Great Lakes... Weak to locally moderate buoyancy may develop later today from parts of the upper OH Valley into the lower Great Lakes region, between a weakening cold front approaching from the west, and a slow-moving warm front draped from central PA into western NY. Moderate southwesterly midlevel flow will support effective shear of 35-45 kt, sufficient for storm organization. However, with midlevel lapse rates expected to remain rather weak, storm intensity and any attendant severe threat could be relatively limited. Confidence in sufficient destabilization is too low to add probabilities at this time. ...Eastern WA into northern ID and northwest MT... While buoyancy is expected to remain quite weak, relatively steep midlevel lapse rates will support thunderstorm potential from eastern WA into northern ID and northwest MT, in advance of the approaching shortwave trough. Most guidance suggests that instability will remain too weak for an organized severe threat, though rather strong deep-layer flow/shear could support a strong storm or two with locally gusty winds and small hail. Severe probabilities may eventually be needed if confidence increases regarding the development of sufficient instability. ..Dean/Thornton.. 09/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0104 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE GULF COAST INTO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible later today from parts of the Southeast and central/southern Appalachians to the Texas/Louisiana Gulf Coast. Some tornado threat may develop across the Florida Peninsula by this evening, in association with Tropical Cyclone Helene. ...Synopsis... The upper-level pattern across much of the CONUS will become rather complex today and tonight. Tropical Cyclone Helene is forecast to intensify as a hurricane as it begins to move north-northeastward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico; see NHC forecasts and advisories for more information. A mid/upper-level low that will initially be over the mid MS Valley is expected to slow down and eventually move southward, as it begins to interact with Helene. A northern-stream mid/upper-level trough is expected to amplify as it moves east-southeastward toward the lower Great Lakes region. A seasonably strong mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move across the Northwest through the day and into the evening. ...Parts of the TX Gulf Coast into the Southeast and southern Appalachians... Widespread precipitation is expected from parts of the Southeast into the southern Appalachians, due to the combined influence of the mid/upper-level flow to the west and moisture streaming north from the Gulf of Mexico and Helene. While this will tend to limit available buoyancy with time, a few strong storms will be possible with initial development, with preconvective MLCAPE of around 1000 J/kg and generally favorable deep-layer shear. Locally damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado could accompany the strongest storms, before low/midlevel lapse rates and buoyancy become increasingly weak with time, and an outflow-reinforced front sags southward across the region. Compared to areas farther east, somewhat stronger diurnal destabilization will be possible from parts of central/east TX into LA, and perhaps into MS, with MLCAPE potentially increasing above 1500 J/kg. Isolated to widely scattered storm development will be possible near a southward-moving cold front. Effective shear will generally range from 25-35 kt, and a few modestly organized storms are possible. Isolated damaging gusts could accompany the strongest storms within this regime. ...Florida Peninsula and Keys... Helene's wind field is forecast to be rather large, especially on the east side of the circulation. This will result in strengthening low-level shear/SRH across the Florida Peninsula during the day and especially into the evening/overnight. Instability will likely remain rather weak, and details regarding the intensity of any outer rain bands remain uncertain, but some tropical-cyclone tornado threat could evolve across parts of the peninsula and Keys, especially later in the period. ...Upper Ohio Valley into the lower Great Lakes... Weak to locally moderate buoyancy may develop later today from parts of the upper OH Valley into the lower Great Lakes region, between a weakening cold front approaching from the west, and a slow-moving warm front draped from central PA into western NY. Moderate southwesterly midlevel flow will support effective shear of 35-45 kt, sufficient for storm organization. However, with midlevel lapse rates expected to remain rather weak, storm intensity and any attendant severe threat could be relatively limited. Confidence in sufficient destabilization is too low to add probabilities at this time. ...Eastern WA into northern ID and northwest MT... While buoyancy is expected to remain quite weak, relatively steep midlevel lapse rates will support thunderstorm potential from eastern WA into northern ID and northwest MT, in advance of the approaching shortwave trough. Most guidance suggests that instability will remain too weak for an organized severe threat, though rather strong deep-layer flow/shear could support a strong storm or two with locally gusty winds and small hail. Severe probabilities may eventually be needed if confidence increases regarding the development of sufficient instability. ..Dean/Thornton.. 09/25/2024 Read more

WW 0682 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 682 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE DUA TO 35 S CQB TO 10 SE CQB TO 20 S TUL. ..THORNTON..09/25/24 ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 682 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC005-029-063-091-107-111-121-123-133-250440- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATOKA COAL HUGHES MCINTOSH OKFUSKEE OKMULGEE PITTSBURG PONTOTOC SEMINOLE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 682 SEVERE TSTM OK 242245Z - 250400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 682 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 545 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central Oklahoma * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 545 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Widely scattered thunderstorms will intensify early this evening across central Oklahoma and drift eastward across the watch area. Initial storms will pose a risk of large hail, with an increasing threat of gusty/damaging winds later this evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles northwest of Chickasha OK to 15 miles east northeast of Mcalester OK. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 681... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 28030. ...Hart Read more

WW 0682 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 682 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 SSE ADM TO 25 E OKC TO 35 SSE PNC. ..THORNTON..09/25/24 ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 682 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC005-029-037-063-069-081-091-107-111-119-121-123-125-133- 250340- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATOKA COAL CREEK HUGHES JOHNSTON LINCOLN MCINTOSH OKFUSKEE OKMULGEE PAYNE PITTSBURG PONTOTOC POTTAWATOMIE SEMINOLE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 2106 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 682... FOR CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 2106 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0810 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Areas affected...central Oklahoma Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 682... Valid 250110Z - 250215Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 682 continues. SUMMARY...Severe wind and hail threat within WW682. DISCUSSION...Supercell activity continues across central Oklahoma along and north of a warm frontal boundary across central Oklahoma. Hail up to baseball size was reported earlier near the Oklahoma City metro. This cell has since weakened and moved southward. Additional supercell development is ongoing across the I-40 corridor east of Oklahoma City. Strong deep layer shear around 40-45 kts and MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg remains in place across central Oklahoma. This environment will continue to support supercells with potential for large hail and damaging wind to continue across this region, spreading southward with time through the evening. ..Thornton.. 09/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN... LAT...LON 34349695 34549734 35069738 35539715 35839703 35939699 35999697 36079645 35609533 35269520 34869518 34479549 34279579 34159598 34129626 34349695 Read more

WW 0682 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 682 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE FSI TO 35 N CQB. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2106 ..THORNTON..09/25/24 ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 682 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC005-027-029-037-049-063-069-081-087-091-099-107-109-111-119- 121-123-125-133-250240- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATOKA CLEVELAND COAL CREEK GARVIN HUGHES JOHNSTON LINCOLN MCCLAIN MCINTOSH MURRAY OKFUSKEE OKLAHOMA OKMULGEE PAYNE PITTSBURG PONTOTOC POTTAWATOMIE SEMINOLE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Valid 250100Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN OK... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms remain possible this evening across parts of central and southern Oklahoma into north Texas. Strong to locally severe storms also remain possible across parts of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the southern Appalachians region. ...Central OK into north TX... A hail-producing supercell that earlier moved through the OKC metro area has weakened, but additional development is underway across central OK. A cluster of strong to locally severe storms may continue southeastward into north TX through late evening, with moderate buoyancy and relatively strong deep-layer shear continuing to support a threat for at least isolated hail and damaging wind. Increasing CINH should eventually result in a weakening trend, though a few stronger elevated storms will remain possible into the overnight hours. ...Ohio/Tennessee Valleys into the southern Appalachians... Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing this evening across parts of the OH/TN Valleys into the southern Appalachians, within a relatively moist and favorably sheared environment. A gradual decreasing trend is expected to continue with time, due to diurnal cooling and weakening instability. However, ascent attendant to a mid/upper-level trough digging southeastward from the lower MO/mid MS Valley will help to sustain multicell clusters and possibly a couple supercells into late evening, with a threat of isolated damaging gusts and hail. ..Dean.. 09/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Valid 250100Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN OK... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms remain possible this evening across parts of central and southern Oklahoma into north Texas. Strong to locally severe storms also remain possible across parts of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the southern Appalachians region. ...Central OK into north TX... A hail-producing supercell that earlier moved through the OKC metro area has weakened, but additional development is underway across central OK. A cluster of strong to locally severe storms may continue southeastward into north TX through late evening, with moderate buoyancy and relatively strong deep-layer shear continuing to support a threat for at least isolated hail and damaging wind. Increasing CINH should eventually result in a weakening trend, though a few stronger elevated storms will remain possible into the overnight hours. ...Ohio/Tennessee Valleys into the southern Appalachians... Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing this evening across parts of the OH/TN Valleys into the southern Appalachians, within a relatively moist and favorably sheared environment. A gradual decreasing trend is expected to continue with time, due to diurnal cooling and weakening instability. However, ascent attendant to a mid/upper-level trough digging southeastward from the lower MO/mid MS Valley will help to sustain multicell clusters and possibly a couple supercells into late evening, with a threat of isolated damaging gusts and hail. ..Dean.. 09/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Valid 250100Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN OK... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms remain possible this evening across parts of central and southern Oklahoma into north Texas. Strong to locally severe storms also remain possible across parts of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the southern Appalachians region. ...Central OK into north TX... A hail-producing supercell that earlier moved through the OKC metro area has weakened, but additional development is underway across central OK. A cluster of strong to locally severe storms may continue southeastward into north TX through late evening, with moderate buoyancy and relatively strong deep-layer shear continuing to support a threat for at least isolated hail and damaging wind. Increasing CINH should eventually result in a weakening trend, though a few stronger elevated storms will remain possible into the overnight hours. ...Ohio/Tennessee Valleys into the southern Appalachians... Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing this evening across parts of the OH/TN Valleys into the southern Appalachians, within a relatively moist and favorably sheared environment. A gradual decreasing trend is expected to continue with time, due to diurnal cooling and weakening instability. However, ascent attendant to a mid/upper-level trough digging southeastward from the lower MO/mid MS Valley will help to sustain multicell clusters and possibly a couple supercells into late evening, with a threat of isolated damaging gusts and hail. ..Dean.. 09/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Valid 250100Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN OK... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms remain possible this evening across parts of central and southern Oklahoma into north Texas. Strong to locally severe storms also remain possible across parts of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the southern Appalachians region. ...Central OK into north TX... A hail-producing supercell that earlier moved through the OKC metro area has weakened, but additional development is underway across central OK. A cluster of strong to locally severe storms may continue southeastward into north TX through late evening, with moderate buoyancy and relatively strong deep-layer shear continuing to support a threat for at least isolated hail and damaging wind. Increasing CINH should eventually result in a weakening trend, though a few stronger elevated storms will remain possible into the overnight hours. ...Ohio/Tennessee Valleys into the southern Appalachians... Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing this evening across parts of the OH/TN Valleys into the southern Appalachians, within a relatively moist and favorably sheared environment. A gradual decreasing trend is expected to continue with time, due to diurnal cooling and weakening instability. However, ascent attendant to a mid/upper-level trough digging southeastward from the lower MO/mid MS Valley will help to sustain multicell clusters and possibly a couple supercells into late evening, with a threat of isolated damaging gusts and hail. ..Dean.. 09/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Valid 250100Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN OK... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms remain possible this evening across parts of central and southern Oklahoma into north Texas. Strong to locally severe storms also remain possible across parts of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the southern Appalachians region. ...Central OK into north TX... A hail-producing supercell that earlier moved through the OKC metro area has weakened, but additional development is underway across central OK. A cluster of strong to locally severe storms may continue southeastward into north TX through late evening, with moderate buoyancy and relatively strong deep-layer shear continuing to support a threat for at least isolated hail and damaging wind. Increasing CINH should eventually result in a weakening trend, though a few stronger elevated storms will remain possible into the overnight hours. ...Ohio/Tennessee Valleys into the southern Appalachians... Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing this evening across parts of the OH/TN Valleys into the southern Appalachians, within a relatively moist and favorably sheared environment. A gradual decreasing trend is expected to continue with time, due to diurnal cooling and weakening instability. However, ascent attendant to a mid/upper-level trough digging southeastward from the lower MO/mid MS Valley will help to sustain multicell clusters and possibly a couple supercells into late evening, with a threat of isolated damaging gusts and hail. ..Dean.. 09/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Valid 250100Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN OK... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms remain possible this evening across parts of central and southern Oklahoma into north Texas. Strong to locally severe storms also remain possible across parts of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the southern Appalachians region. ...Central OK into north TX... A hail-producing supercell that earlier moved through the OKC metro area has weakened, but additional development is underway across central OK. A cluster of strong to locally severe storms may continue southeastward into north TX through late evening, with moderate buoyancy and relatively strong deep-layer shear continuing to support a threat for at least isolated hail and damaging wind. Increasing CINH should eventually result in a weakening trend, though a few stronger elevated storms will remain possible into the overnight hours. ...Ohio/Tennessee Valleys into the southern Appalachians... Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing this evening across parts of the OH/TN Valleys into the southern Appalachians, within a relatively moist and favorably sheared environment. A gradual decreasing trend is expected to continue with time, due to diurnal cooling and weakening instability. However, ascent attendant to a mid/upper-level trough digging southeastward from the lower MO/mid MS Valley will help to sustain multicell clusters and possibly a couple supercells into late evening, with a threat of isolated damaging gusts and hail. ..Dean.. 09/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Valid 250100Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN OK... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms remain possible this evening across parts of central and southern Oklahoma into north Texas. Strong to locally severe storms also remain possible across parts of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the southern Appalachians region. ...Central OK into north TX... A hail-producing supercell that earlier moved through the OKC metro area has weakened, but additional development is underway across central OK. A cluster of strong to locally severe storms may continue southeastward into north TX through late evening, with moderate buoyancy and relatively strong deep-layer shear continuing to support a threat for at least isolated hail and damaging wind. Increasing CINH should eventually result in a weakening trend, though a few stronger elevated storms will remain possible into the overnight hours. ...Ohio/Tennessee Valleys into the southern Appalachians... Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing this evening across parts of the OH/TN Valleys into the southern Appalachians, within a relatively moist and favorably sheared environment. A gradual decreasing trend is expected to continue with time, due to diurnal cooling and weakening instability. However, ascent attendant to a mid/upper-level trough digging southeastward from the lower MO/mid MS Valley will help to sustain multicell clusters and possibly a couple supercells into late evening, with a threat of isolated damaging gusts and hail. ..Dean.. 09/25/2024 Read more

MD 2105 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 681... FOR EASTERN KY/TN INTO SOUTHWEST WV/WESTERN VA
Mesoscale Discussion 2105 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0552 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Areas affected...Eastern KY/TN into southwest WV/western VA Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 681... Valid 242252Z - 250045Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 681 continues. SUMMARY...Some hail/wind threat continues with scattered storms this evening. DISCUSSION...Short-wave trough is ejecting across the OH Valley early this evening and scattered strong/severe convection continues within the warm-advection zone, well ahead of the front. Over the last few hours, greatest concentration of robust, long-lived updrafts/supercells is beneath the strongest mid-level flow across eastern KY/northeast TN. Radar data suggests at least 4-6 supercells, extending 50mi either side of the TN/KY border, moving east-northeast toward western VA/southwest WV. However, air mass is notably less buoyant downstream and these updrafts will encounter increasingly hostile environment across the higher terrain and points east. Until then, hail/wind threat will continue with these storms. ..Darrow.. 09/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX... LAT...LON 37058475 38078251 37298155 36198246 36218544 37058475 Read more

WW 0681 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 681 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..09/24/24 ATTN...WFO...LMK...ILN...JKL...OHX...MRX...MEG... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 681 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC019-029-047-077-115-137-143-155-161-242340- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLARK DEARBORN FRANKLIN JEFFERSON OHIO RIPLEY SCOTT SWITZERLAND UNION KYC001-003-005-009-011-013-015-017-021-023-029-037-041-045-049- 051-053-057-061-065-067-069-073-077-079-081-085-087-093-097-099- 103-109-111-113-117-121-123-125-129-135-137-141-147-151-155-161- 165-167-169-171-173-179-181-185-187-189-191-197-199-201-203-205- 207-209-211-213-215-217-223-227-229-231-235-237-239-242340- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ALLEN ANDERSON BARREN BATH BELL BOONE BOURBON BOYLE BRACKEN BULLITT CAMPBELL CARROLL CASEY CLARK CLAY CLINTON CUMBERLAND EDMONSON ESTILL FAYETTE Read more

WW 0681 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 681 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..09/24/24 ATTN...WFO...LMK...ILN...JKL...OHX...MRX...MEG... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 681 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC019-029-047-077-115-137-143-155-161-242340- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLARK DEARBORN FRANKLIN JEFFERSON OHIO RIPLEY SCOTT SWITZERLAND UNION KYC001-003-005-009-011-013-015-017-021-023-029-037-041-045-049- 051-053-057-061-065-067-069-073-077-079-081-085-087-093-097-099- 103-109-111-113-117-121-123-125-129-135-137-141-147-151-155-161- 165-167-169-171-173-179-181-185-187-189-191-197-199-201-203-205- 207-209-211-213-215-217-223-227-229-231-235-237-239-242340- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ALLEN ANDERSON BARREN BATH BELL BOONE BOURBON BOYLE BRACKEN BULLITT CAMPBELL CARROLL CASEY CLARK CLAY CLINTON CUMBERLAND EDMONSON ESTILL FAYETTE Read more

WW 0681 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 681 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..09/24/24 ATTN...WFO...LMK...ILN...JKL...OHX...MRX...MEG... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 681 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC019-029-047-077-115-137-143-155-161-242340- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLARK DEARBORN FRANKLIN JEFFERSON OHIO RIPLEY SCOTT SWITZERLAND UNION KYC001-003-005-009-011-013-015-017-021-023-029-037-041-045-049- 051-053-057-061-065-067-069-073-077-079-081-085-087-093-097-099- 103-109-111-113-117-121-123-125-129-135-137-141-147-151-155-161- 165-167-169-171-173-179-181-185-187-189-191-197-199-201-203-205- 207-209-211-213-215-217-223-227-229-231-235-237-239-242340- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ALLEN ANDERSON BARREN BATH BELL BOONE BOURBON BOYLE BRACKEN BULLITT CAMPBELL CARROLL CASEY CLARK CLAY CLINTON CUMBERLAND EDMONSON ESTILL FAYETTE Read more