Severe Storms

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis... The upper-level low across the Ohio Valley will be in the process of weakening on Saturday. There will be a lingering mid-level jet across parts of Southeast into the southern Appalachians. However, dry air wrapping into the Southeast, along with remaining cloud cover and precipitation, should keep convection shallow and surface-based buoyancy to a minimum. Rich moisture will remain across much of the Florida Peninsula. Sufficient surface heating is expected to promote the development of isolated thunderstorms during the afternoon. Poor lapse rates aloft and the displacement of the stronger mid-level winds well to the north will keep severe potential low with this activity. A pocket of mid-level moisture in the Four Corners vicinity may promote some convection in the higher terrain of south-central Colorado into north-central New Mexico. Forecast soundings suggest most convection will not be deep enough for charge separation except perhaps on an isolated basis. Thunderstorm potential should remain below 10%. ..Wendt.. 09/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE SC/NC COASTAL PLAIN... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes will be most likely during the morning and remain possible into the afternoon across parts of the Carolinas and Virginia, in association with Tropical Cyclone Helene. ...Carolinas/Virginia... Helene is forecast by NHC to weaken into a tropical storm by the start of the forecast period. Continued weakening and eventual evolution into a post-tropical cyclone is forecast by later tonight, as the cyclone interacts with a mid/upper-level low over the Mid South and curls northwestward toward the Ohio Valley. The associated low-level wind field, coincident with a rich tropical moisture plume (with mid to upper 70s F dewpoints) in the eastern semicircle of the cyclone, will be strongest at the start of the period and substantially weaken during the afternoon. One or more bands of relatively low-topped supercells may be ongoing at the start of the period across parts of the Carolinas, immediately in advance of an increasingly pronounced midlevel dry slot. Low-level shear/SRH will remain quite strong in the morning, and the greatest relative tornado threat is still expected early in the period from the Pee Dee region of SC into the NC Coastal Plain. Convective bands will move northward into the afternoon, with some tornado potential spreading across parts of southern and central Virginia. Weakening low-level flow/shear and increasing influence of the midlevel dry slot should result in decreasing tornado potential by late afternoon into the evening. ..Dean/Barnes.. 09/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE SC/NC COASTAL PLAIN... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes will be most likely during the morning and remain possible into the afternoon across parts of the Carolinas and Virginia, in association with Tropical Cyclone Helene. ...Carolinas/Virginia... Helene is forecast by NHC to weaken into a tropical storm by the start of the forecast period. Continued weakening and eventual evolution into a post-tropical cyclone is forecast by later tonight, as the cyclone interacts with a mid/upper-level low over the Mid South and curls northwestward toward the Ohio Valley. The associated low-level wind field, coincident with a rich tropical moisture plume (with mid to upper 70s F dewpoints) in the eastern semicircle of the cyclone, will be strongest at the start of the period and substantially weaken during the afternoon. One or more bands of relatively low-topped supercells may be ongoing at the start of the period across parts of the Carolinas, immediately in advance of an increasingly pronounced midlevel dry slot. Low-level shear/SRH will remain quite strong in the morning, and the greatest relative tornado threat is still expected early in the period from the Pee Dee region of SC into the NC Coastal Plain. Convective bands will move northward into the afternoon, with some tornado potential spreading across parts of southern and central Virginia. Weakening low-level flow/shear and increasing influence of the midlevel dry slot should result in decreasing tornado potential by late afternoon into the evening. ..Dean/Barnes.. 09/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE SC/NC COASTAL PLAIN... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes will be most likely during the morning and remain possible into the afternoon across parts of the Carolinas and Virginia, in association with Tropical Cyclone Helene. ...Carolinas/Virginia... Helene is forecast by NHC to weaken into a tropical storm by the start of the forecast period. Continued weakening and eventual evolution into a post-tropical cyclone is forecast by later tonight, as the cyclone interacts with a mid/upper-level low over the Mid South and curls northwestward toward the Ohio Valley. The associated low-level wind field, coincident with a rich tropical moisture plume (with mid to upper 70s F dewpoints) in the eastern semicircle of the cyclone, will be strongest at the start of the period and substantially weaken during the afternoon. One or more bands of relatively low-topped supercells may be ongoing at the start of the period across parts of the Carolinas, immediately in advance of an increasingly pronounced midlevel dry slot. Low-level shear/SRH will remain quite strong in the morning, and the greatest relative tornado threat is still expected early in the period from the Pee Dee region of SC into the NC Coastal Plain. Convective bands will move northward into the afternoon, with some tornado potential spreading across parts of southern and central Virginia. Weakening low-level flow/shear and increasing influence of the midlevel dry slot should result in decreasing tornado potential by late afternoon into the evening. ..Dean/Barnes.. 09/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE SC/NC COASTAL PLAIN... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes will be most likely during the morning and remain possible into the afternoon across parts of the Carolinas and Virginia, in association with Tropical Cyclone Helene. ...Carolinas/Virginia... Helene is forecast by NHC to weaken into a tropical storm by the start of the forecast period. Continued weakening and eventual evolution into a post-tropical cyclone is forecast by later tonight, as the cyclone interacts with a mid/upper-level low over the Mid South and curls northwestward toward the Ohio Valley. The associated low-level wind field, coincident with a rich tropical moisture plume (with mid to upper 70s F dewpoints) in the eastern semicircle of the cyclone, will be strongest at the start of the period and substantially weaken during the afternoon. One or more bands of relatively low-topped supercells may be ongoing at the start of the period across parts of the Carolinas, immediately in advance of an increasingly pronounced midlevel dry slot. Low-level shear/SRH will remain quite strong in the morning, and the greatest relative tornado threat is still expected early in the period from the Pee Dee region of SC into the NC Coastal Plain. Convective bands will move northward into the afternoon, with some tornado potential spreading across parts of southern and central Virginia. Weakening low-level flow/shear and increasing influence of the midlevel dry slot should result in decreasing tornado potential by late afternoon into the evening. ..Dean/Barnes.. 09/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE SC/NC COASTAL PLAIN... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes will be most likely during the morning and remain possible into the afternoon across parts of the Carolinas and Virginia, in association with Tropical Cyclone Helene. ...Carolinas/Virginia... Helene is forecast by NHC to weaken into a tropical storm by the start of the forecast period. Continued weakening and eventual evolution into a post-tropical cyclone is forecast by later tonight, as the cyclone interacts with a mid/upper-level low over the Mid South and curls northwestward toward the Ohio Valley. The associated low-level wind field, coincident with a rich tropical moisture plume (with mid to upper 70s F dewpoints) in the eastern semicircle of the cyclone, will be strongest at the start of the period and substantially weaken during the afternoon. One or more bands of relatively low-topped supercells may be ongoing at the start of the period across parts of the Carolinas, immediately in advance of an increasingly pronounced midlevel dry slot. Low-level shear/SRH will remain quite strong in the morning, and the greatest relative tornado threat is still expected early in the period from the Pee Dee region of SC into the NC Coastal Plain. Convective bands will move northward into the afternoon, with some tornado potential spreading across parts of southern and central Virginia. Weakening low-level flow/shear and increasing influence of the midlevel dry slot should result in decreasing tornado potential by late afternoon into the evening. ..Dean/Barnes.. 09/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE SC/NC COASTAL PLAIN... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes will be most likely during the morning and remain possible into the afternoon across parts of the Carolinas and Virginia, in association with Tropical Cyclone Helene. ...Carolinas/Virginia... Helene is forecast by NHC to weaken into a tropical storm by the start of the forecast period. Continued weakening and eventual evolution into a post-tropical cyclone is forecast by later tonight, as the cyclone interacts with a mid/upper-level low over the Mid South and curls northwestward toward the Ohio Valley. The associated low-level wind field, coincident with a rich tropical moisture plume (with mid to upper 70s F dewpoints) in the eastern semicircle of the cyclone, will be strongest at the start of the period and substantially weaken during the afternoon. One or more bands of relatively low-topped supercells may be ongoing at the start of the period across parts of the Carolinas, immediately in advance of an increasingly pronounced midlevel dry slot. Low-level shear/SRH will remain quite strong in the morning, and the greatest relative tornado threat is still expected early in the period from the Pee Dee region of SC into the NC Coastal Plain. Convective bands will move northward into the afternoon, with some tornado potential spreading across parts of southern and central Virginia. Weakening low-level flow/shear and increasing influence of the midlevel dry slot should result in decreasing tornado potential by late afternoon into the evening. ..Dean/Barnes.. 09/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE SC/NC COASTAL PLAIN... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes will be most likely during the morning and remain possible into the afternoon across parts of the Carolinas and Virginia, in association with Tropical Cyclone Helene. ...Carolinas/Virginia... Helene is forecast by NHC to weaken into a tropical storm by the start of the forecast period. Continued weakening and eventual evolution into a post-tropical cyclone is forecast by later tonight, as the cyclone interacts with a mid/upper-level low over the Mid South and curls northwestward toward the Ohio Valley. The associated low-level wind field, coincident with a rich tropical moisture plume (with mid to upper 70s F dewpoints) in the eastern semicircle of the cyclone, will be strongest at the start of the period and substantially weaken during the afternoon. One or more bands of relatively low-topped supercells may be ongoing at the start of the period across parts of the Carolinas, immediately in advance of an increasingly pronounced midlevel dry slot. Low-level shear/SRH will remain quite strong in the morning, and the greatest relative tornado threat is still expected early in the period from the Pee Dee region of SC into the NC Coastal Plain. Convective bands will move northward into the afternoon, with some tornado potential spreading across parts of southern and central Virginia. Weakening low-level flow/shear and increasing influence of the midlevel dry slot should result in decreasing tornado potential by late afternoon into the evening. ..Dean/Barnes.. 09/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE SC/NC COASTAL PLAIN... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes will be most likely during the morning and remain possible into the afternoon across parts of the Carolinas and Virginia, in association with Tropical Cyclone Helene. ...Carolinas/Virginia... Helene is forecast by NHC to weaken into a tropical storm by the start of the forecast period. Continued weakening and eventual evolution into a post-tropical cyclone is forecast by later tonight, as the cyclone interacts with a mid/upper-level low over the Mid South and curls northwestward toward the Ohio Valley. The associated low-level wind field, coincident with a rich tropical moisture plume (with mid to upper 70s F dewpoints) in the eastern semicircle of the cyclone, will be strongest at the start of the period and substantially weaken during the afternoon. One or more bands of relatively low-topped supercells may be ongoing at the start of the period across parts of the Carolinas, immediately in advance of an increasingly pronounced midlevel dry slot. Low-level shear/SRH will remain quite strong in the morning, and the greatest relative tornado threat is still expected early in the period from the Pee Dee region of SC into the NC Coastal Plain. Convective bands will move northward into the afternoon, with some tornado potential spreading across parts of southern and central Virginia. Weakening low-level flow/shear and increasing influence of the midlevel dry slot should result in decreasing tornado potential by late afternoon into the evening. ..Dean/Barnes.. 09/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE SC/NC COASTAL PLAIN... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes will be most likely during the morning and remain possible into the afternoon across parts of the Carolinas and Virginia, in association with Tropical Cyclone Helene. ...Carolinas/Virginia... Helene is forecast by NHC to weaken into a tropical storm by the start of the forecast period. Continued weakening and eventual evolution into a post-tropical cyclone is forecast by later tonight, as the cyclone interacts with a mid/upper-level low over the Mid South and curls northwestward toward the Ohio Valley. The associated low-level wind field, coincident with a rich tropical moisture plume (with mid to upper 70s F dewpoints) in the eastern semicircle of the cyclone, will be strongest at the start of the period and substantially weaken during the afternoon. One or more bands of relatively low-topped supercells may be ongoing at the start of the period across parts of the Carolinas, immediately in advance of an increasingly pronounced midlevel dry slot. Low-level shear/SRH will remain quite strong in the morning, and the greatest relative tornado threat is still expected early in the period from the Pee Dee region of SC into the NC Coastal Plain. Convective bands will move northward into the afternoon, with some tornado potential spreading across parts of southern and central Virginia. Weakening low-level flow/shear and increasing influence of the midlevel dry slot should result in decreasing tornado potential by late afternoon into the evening. ..Dean/Barnes.. 09/27/2024 Read more

WW 0686 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 686 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..09/27/24 ATTN...WFO...JAX...MLB...TBW...TAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 686 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC001-003-007-009-015-017-019-023-027-029-031-035-041-047-049- 053-055-057-065-067-069-071-075-079-081-083-089-095-097-101-103- 105-107-109-115-117-119-121-123-125-127-270640- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALACHUA BAKER BRADFORD BREVARD CHARLOTTE CITRUS CLAY COLUMBIA DESOTO DIXIE DUVAL FLAGLER GILCHRIST HAMILTON HARDEE HERNANDO HIGHLANDS HILLSBOROUGH JEFFERSON LAFAYETTE LAKE LEE LEVY MADISON MANATEE MARION NASSAU ORANGE OSCEOLA PASCO PINELLAS POLK PUTNAM ST. JOHNS SARASOTA SEMINOLE SUMTER SUWANNEE TAYLOR UNION VOLUSIA GAC001-003-005-017-019-025-027-039-049-065-069-071-075-101-127- 155-161-173-185-229-275-277-287-299-305-321-270640- Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Increasing southerly surface winds are expected to develop across the Great Basin Saturday afternoon, as a mid-level shortwave trough within relatively stronger southerly flow approaches the CA coast. Relative humidity in the low teens will coincide with these higher wind speeds (around 15 mph sustained) yielding at least localized elevated fire weather conditions near and south of the Toiyabe National Forest of NV, where 100-hour fuel moisture continues to decrease. Given the very localized nature of any higher wind potential, however, an Elevated area will not be included in the forecast at this time. ..Barnes.. 09/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Increasing southerly surface winds are expected to develop across the Great Basin Saturday afternoon, as a mid-level shortwave trough within relatively stronger southerly flow approaches the CA coast. Relative humidity in the low teens will coincide with these higher wind speeds (around 15 mph sustained) yielding at least localized elevated fire weather conditions near and south of the Toiyabe National Forest of NV, where 100-hour fuel moisture continues to decrease. Given the very localized nature of any higher wind potential, however, an Elevated area will not be included in the forecast at this time. ..Barnes.. 09/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Increasing southerly surface winds are expected to develop across the Great Basin Saturday afternoon, as a mid-level shortwave trough within relatively stronger southerly flow approaches the CA coast. Relative humidity in the low teens will coincide with these higher wind speeds (around 15 mph sustained) yielding at least localized elevated fire weather conditions near and south of the Toiyabe National Forest of NV, where 100-hour fuel moisture continues to decrease. Given the very localized nature of any higher wind potential, however, an Elevated area will not be included in the forecast at this time. ..Barnes.. 09/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Increasing southerly surface winds are expected to develop across the Great Basin Saturday afternoon, as a mid-level shortwave trough within relatively stronger southerly flow approaches the CA coast. Relative humidity in the low teens will coincide with these higher wind speeds (around 15 mph sustained) yielding at least localized elevated fire weather conditions near and south of the Toiyabe National Forest of NV, where 100-hour fuel moisture continues to decrease. Given the very localized nature of any higher wind potential, however, an Elevated area will not be included in the forecast at this time. ..Barnes.. 09/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Increasing southerly surface winds are expected to develop across the Great Basin Saturday afternoon, as a mid-level shortwave trough within relatively stronger southerly flow approaches the CA coast. Relative humidity in the low teens will coincide with these higher wind speeds (around 15 mph sustained) yielding at least localized elevated fire weather conditions near and south of the Toiyabe National Forest of NV, where 100-hour fuel moisture continues to decrease. Given the very localized nature of any higher wind potential, however, an Elevated area will not be included in the forecast at this time. ..Barnes.. 09/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Increasing southerly surface winds are expected to develop across the Great Basin Saturday afternoon, as a mid-level shortwave trough within relatively stronger southerly flow approaches the CA coast. Relative humidity in the low teens will coincide with these higher wind speeds (around 15 mph sustained) yielding at least localized elevated fire weather conditions near and south of the Toiyabe National Forest of NV, where 100-hour fuel moisture continues to decrease. Given the very localized nature of any higher wind potential, however, an Elevated area will not be included in the forecast at this time. ..Barnes.. 09/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Increasing southerly surface winds are expected to develop across the Great Basin Saturday afternoon, as a mid-level shortwave trough within relatively stronger southerly flow approaches the CA coast. Relative humidity in the low teens will coincide with these higher wind speeds (around 15 mph sustained) yielding at least localized elevated fire weather conditions near and south of the Toiyabe National Forest of NV, where 100-hour fuel moisture continues to decrease. Given the very localized nature of any higher wind potential, however, an Elevated area will not be included in the forecast at this time. ..Barnes.. 09/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Increasing southerly surface winds are expected to develop across the Great Basin Saturday afternoon, as a mid-level shortwave trough within relatively stronger southerly flow approaches the CA coast. Relative humidity in the low teens will coincide with these higher wind speeds (around 15 mph sustained) yielding at least localized elevated fire weather conditions near and south of the Toiyabe National Forest of NV, where 100-hour fuel moisture continues to decrease. Given the very localized nature of any higher wind potential, however, an Elevated area will not be included in the forecast at this time. ..Barnes.. 09/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Increasing southerly surface winds are expected to develop across the Great Basin Saturday afternoon, as a mid-level shortwave trough within relatively stronger southerly flow approaches the CA coast. Relative humidity in the low teens will coincide with these higher wind speeds (around 15 mph sustained) yielding at least localized elevated fire weather conditions near and south of the Toiyabe National Forest of NV, where 100-hour fuel moisture continues to decrease. Given the very localized nature of any higher wind potential, however, an Elevated area will not be included in the forecast at this time. ..Barnes.. 09/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more