Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1022 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed. Dry conditions are noted this morning across much of the West, but low-level winds should remain benign for today. Locally elevated conditions may develop in the lee of the Lewis Range and Big Belt mountains in central MT where downslope winds may gust up to 20-30 mph with RH in the 20-25% range; however, these conditions should remain too localized for a broader risk area. ..Moore.. 09/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1237 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... On Friday an upper-level ridge will remain in place over the Southwest and Rocky Mountains, while the remnants of Hurricane Helene rotate over the eastern CONUS centered near TN. This pattern will not favor widespread fire weather conditions, as any stronger mid-level flow and associated surface winds, accompanying a high latitude zonal jet streak, are expected to remain over the western and central provinces of Canada. Due to a lack of appreciable rainfall over the northern Great Plains, however, fuels will continue to become more receptive to ignition and spread there. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1022 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed. Dry conditions are noted this morning across much of the West, but low-level winds should remain benign for today. Locally elevated conditions may develop in the lee of the Lewis Range and Big Belt mountains in central MT where downslope winds may gust up to 20-30 mph with RH in the 20-25% range; however, these conditions should remain too localized for a broader risk area. ..Moore.. 09/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1237 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... On Friday an upper-level ridge will remain in place over the Southwest and Rocky Mountains, while the remnants of Hurricane Helene rotate over the eastern CONUS centered near TN. This pattern will not favor widespread fire weather conditions, as any stronger mid-level flow and associated surface winds, accompanying a high latitude zonal jet streak, are expected to remain over the western and central provinces of Canada. Due to a lack of appreciable rainfall over the northern Great Plains, however, fuels will continue to become more receptive to ignition and spread there. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1022 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed. Dry conditions are noted this morning across much of the West, but low-level winds should remain benign for today. Locally elevated conditions may develop in the lee of the Lewis Range and Big Belt mountains in central MT where downslope winds may gust up to 20-30 mph with RH in the 20-25% range; however, these conditions should remain too localized for a broader risk area. ..Moore.. 09/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1237 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... On Friday an upper-level ridge will remain in place over the Southwest and Rocky Mountains, while the remnants of Hurricane Helene rotate over the eastern CONUS centered near TN. This pattern will not favor widespread fire weather conditions, as any stronger mid-level flow and associated surface winds, accompanying a high latitude zonal jet streak, are expected to remain over the western and central provinces of Canada. Due to a lack of appreciable rainfall over the northern Great Plains, however, fuels will continue to become more receptive to ignition and spread there. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0688 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 688 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE CHS TO 15 WNW FAY TO 20 NNW GSO. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2124. ..GRAMS..09/27/24 ATTN...WFO...RAH...MHX...AKQ...ILM...GSP...RNK...CAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 688 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC001-013-015-017-019-029-031-033-037-041-047-049-051-053-055- 061-063-065-069-073-077-079-081-083-085-091-095-101-103-105-107- 117-127-129-131-133-135-137-139-141-143-145-147-155-157-163-169- 177-181-183-185-187-191-195-271540- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALAMANCE BEAUFORT BERTIE BLADEN BRUNSWICK CAMDEN CARTERET CASWELL CHATHAM CHOWAN COLUMBUS CRAVEN CUMBERLAND CURRITUCK DARE DUPLIN DURHAM EDGECOMBE FRANKLIN GATES GRANVILLE GREENE GUILFORD HALIFAX HARNETT HERTFORD HYDE JOHNSTON JONES LEE LENOIR MARTIN NASH NEW HANOVER NORTHAMPTON ONSLOW ORANGE PAMLICO PASQUOTANK PENDER PERQUIMANS PERSON PITT ROBESON ROCKINGHAM Read more

WW 0688 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 688 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE CHS TO 25 WSW SOP TO 5 NE CLT. ..GRAMS..09/27/24 ATTN...WFO...RAH...MHX...AKQ...ILM...GSP...RNK...CAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 688 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC001-013-015-017-019-025-029-031-033-037-041-047-049-051-053- 055-057-059-061-063-065-067-069-073-077-079-081-083-085-091-093- 095-101-103-105-107-117-119-123-125-127-129-131-133-135-137-139- 141-143-145-147-151-153-155-157-159-163-165-167-169-171-177-181- 183-185-187-191-195-197-271440- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALAMANCE BEAUFORT BERTIE BLADEN BRUNSWICK CABARRUS CAMDEN CARTERET CASWELL CHATHAM CHOWAN COLUMBUS CRAVEN CUMBERLAND CURRITUCK DARE DAVIDSON DAVIE DUPLIN DURHAM EDGECOMBE FORSYTH FRANKLIN GATES GRANVILLE GREENE GUILFORD HALIFAX HARNETT HERTFORD HOKE HYDE JOHNSTON JONES LEE LENOIR MARTIN MECKLENBURG MONTGOMERY MOORE NASH NEW HANOVER NORTHAMPTON ONSLOW ORANGE PAMLICO PASQUOTANK PENDER Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 271300Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERNMOST SOUTH CAROLINA OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN/EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes will be most likely through midday and remain possible into afternoon across parts of the Carolinas and Virginia. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, a zonal to west-southwesterly belt of flow will persist from the northwestern CONUS and western Canada into central Canada, well-removed from a cut-off, cold-core low now evident in moisture-channel imagery over northern MS. This low is expected to pivot slowly northeastward into middle TN by 00Z, then wobble erratically over that area and/or south-central KY through the night as it absorbs the remnant vorticity max from what is now Tropical Storm Helene. ...SC/NC/VA... The path of center of Tropical Storm Helene finally has turned northward. See SPC Tornado watch 688 and associated mesoscale discussions for near-term coverage of the tornado threat over the region. Refer to NHC advisories for the latest track/intensity guidance on Helene. The NHC forecast shows that the center should bend northwestward across southwestern NC, eastern TN and into southern KY through tonight, weakening greatly and becoming more closely conjoined with the mid/upper cyclone. For several more hours, into at least midday, a broad area of strong low-level flow above the surface, and related large low-level shear/hodographs, should extend well east and northeast of center across the outlook area, superimposed over: 1. Relatively maximized low-level convergence, in an arc initially located over eastern SC into southern NC, preceded by well-backed surface winds, and forecast to shift northward to northeastward today; 2. A richly moist, high-theta-e and weak-MLCINH boundary layer advecting inland from the Atlantic and characterized by surface dewpoints commonly in the 70s F. These conditions will yield a favorable environment for tornadoes from any supercells that can cross it, whether within or ahead of the main spiral/convergence band. The most probable area for several supercells to interact with this favorable airmass is over the 10%/"enhanced" tornado-risk area, with potential decreasing westward and northward from there due to weaker instability. Although the supportive low-level airmass will continue to shift northeastward over eastern NC and south-central/southeastern VA this afternoon, tornado potential will diminish with time from midafternoon into early evening. This will occur as convection decreases in coverage and intensity across the area due to a combination of weakening lift and shear, as the remnants of Helene decay rapidly and back well westward away from the area. This process will decouple the remaining stronger low-level flow and isallobaric forcing away from the most-favorable boundary layer near the coast, where hodographs should shrink by the hour this afternoon into evening. ..Edwards/Broyles.. 09/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 271300Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERNMOST SOUTH CAROLINA OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN/EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes will be most likely through midday and remain possible into afternoon across parts of the Carolinas and Virginia. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, a zonal to west-southwesterly belt of flow will persist from the northwestern CONUS and western Canada into central Canada, well-removed from a cut-off, cold-core low now evident in moisture-channel imagery over northern MS. This low is expected to pivot slowly northeastward into middle TN by 00Z, then wobble erratically over that area and/or south-central KY through the night as it absorbs the remnant vorticity max from what is now Tropical Storm Helene. ...SC/NC/VA... The path of center of Tropical Storm Helene finally has turned northward. See SPC Tornado watch 688 and associated mesoscale discussions for near-term coverage of the tornado threat over the region. Refer to NHC advisories for the latest track/intensity guidance on Helene. The NHC forecast shows that the center should bend northwestward across southwestern NC, eastern TN and into southern KY through tonight, weakening greatly and becoming more closely conjoined with the mid/upper cyclone. For several more hours, into at least midday, a broad area of strong low-level flow above the surface, and related large low-level shear/hodographs, should extend well east and northeast of center across the outlook area, superimposed over: 1. Relatively maximized low-level convergence, in an arc initially located over eastern SC into southern NC, preceded by well-backed surface winds, and forecast to shift northward to northeastward today; 2. A richly moist, high-theta-e and weak-MLCINH boundary layer advecting inland from the Atlantic and characterized by surface dewpoints commonly in the 70s F. These conditions will yield a favorable environment for tornadoes from any supercells that can cross it, whether within or ahead of the main spiral/convergence band. The most probable area for several supercells to interact with this favorable airmass is over the 10%/"enhanced" tornado-risk area, with potential decreasing westward and northward from there due to weaker instability. Although the supportive low-level airmass will continue to shift northeastward over eastern NC and south-central/southeastern VA this afternoon, tornado potential will diminish with time from midafternoon into early evening. This will occur as convection decreases in coverage and intensity across the area due to a combination of weakening lift and shear, as the remnants of Helene decay rapidly and back well westward away from the area. This process will decouple the remaining stronger low-level flow and isallobaric forcing away from the most-favorable boundary layer near the coast, where hodographs should shrink by the hour this afternoon into evening. ..Edwards/Broyles.. 09/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 271300Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERNMOST SOUTH CAROLINA OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN/EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes will be most likely through midday and remain possible into afternoon across parts of the Carolinas and Virginia. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, a zonal to west-southwesterly belt of flow will persist from the northwestern CONUS and western Canada into central Canada, well-removed from a cut-off, cold-core low now evident in moisture-channel imagery over northern MS. This low is expected to pivot slowly northeastward into middle TN by 00Z, then wobble erratically over that area and/or south-central KY through the night as it absorbs the remnant vorticity max from what is now Tropical Storm Helene. ...SC/NC/VA... The path of center of Tropical Storm Helene finally has turned northward. See SPC Tornado watch 688 and associated mesoscale discussions for near-term coverage of the tornado threat over the region. Refer to NHC advisories for the latest track/intensity guidance on Helene. The NHC forecast shows that the center should bend northwestward across southwestern NC, eastern TN and into southern KY through tonight, weakening greatly and becoming more closely conjoined with the mid/upper cyclone. For several more hours, into at least midday, a broad area of strong low-level flow above the surface, and related large low-level shear/hodographs, should extend well east and northeast of center across the outlook area, superimposed over: 1. Relatively maximized low-level convergence, in an arc initially located over eastern SC into southern NC, preceded by well-backed surface winds, and forecast to shift northward to northeastward today; 2. A richly moist, high-theta-e and weak-MLCINH boundary layer advecting inland from the Atlantic and characterized by surface dewpoints commonly in the 70s F. These conditions will yield a favorable environment for tornadoes from any supercells that can cross it, whether within or ahead of the main spiral/convergence band. The most probable area for several supercells to interact with this favorable airmass is over the 10%/"enhanced" tornado-risk area, with potential decreasing westward and northward from there due to weaker instability. Although the supportive low-level airmass will continue to shift northeastward over eastern NC and south-central/southeastern VA this afternoon, tornado potential will diminish with time from midafternoon into early evening. This will occur as convection decreases in coverage and intensity across the area due to a combination of weakening lift and shear, as the remnants of Helene decay rapidly and back well westward away from the area. This process will decouple the remaining stronger low-level flow and isallobaric forcing away from the most-favorable boundary layer near the coast, where hodographs should shrink by the hour this afternoon into evening. ..Edwards/Broyles.. 09/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 271300Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERNMOST SOUTH CAROLINA OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN/EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes will be most likely through midday and remain possible into afternoon across parts of the Carolinas and Virginia. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, a zonal to west-southwesterly belt of flow will persist from the northwestern CONUS and western Canada into central Canada, well-removed from a cut-off, cold-core low now evident in moisture-channel imagery over northern MS. This low is expected to pivot slowly northeastward into middle TN by 00Z, then wobble erratically over that area and/or south-central KY through the night as it absorbs the remnant vorticity max from what is now Tropical Storm Helene. ...SC/NC/VA... The path of center of Tropical Storm Helene finally has turned northward. See SPC Tornado watch 688 and associated mesoscale discussions for near-term coverage of the tornado threat over the region. Refer to NHC advisories for the latest track/intensity guidance on Helene. The NHC forecast shows that the center should bend northwestward across southwestern NC, eastern TN and into southern KY through tonight, weakening greatly and becoming more closely conjoined with the mid/upper cyclone. For several more hours, into at least midday, a broad area of strong low-level flow above the surface, and related large low-level shear/hodographs, should extend well east and northeast of center across the outlook area, superimposed over: 1. Relatively maximized low-level convergence, in an arc initially located over eastern SC into southern NC, preceded by well-backed surface winds, and forecast to shift northward to northeastward today; 2. A richly moist, high-theta-e and weak-MLCINH boundary layer advecting inland from the Atlantic and characterized by surface dewpoints commonly in the 70s F. These conditions will yield a favorable environment for tornadoes from any supercells that can cross it, whether within or ahead of the main spiral/convergence band. The most probable area for several supercells to interact with this favorable airmass is over the 10%/"enhanced" tornado-risk area, with potential decreasing westward and northward from there due to weaker instability. Although the supportive low-level airmass will continue to shift northeastward over eastern NC and south-central/southeastern VA this afternoon, tornado potential will diminish with time from midafternoon into early evening. This will occur as convection decreases in coverage and intensity across the area due to a combination of weakening lift and shear, as the remnants of Helene decay rapidly and back well westward away from the area. This process will decouple the remaining stronger low-level flow and isallobaric forcing away from the most-favorable boundary layer near the coast, where hodographs should shrink by the hour this afternoon into evening. ..Edwards/Broyles.. 09/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 271300Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERNMOST SOUTH CAROLINA OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN/EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes will be most likely through midday and remain possible into afternoon across parts of the Carolinas and Virginia. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, a zonal to west-southwesterly belt of flow will persist from the northwestern CONUS and western Canada into central Canada, well-removed from a cut-off, cold-core low now evident in moisture-channel imagery over northern MS. This low is expected to pivot slowly northeastward into middle TN by 00Z, then wobble erratically over that area and/or south-central KY through the night as it absorbs the remnant vorticity max from what is now Tropical Storm Helene. ...SC/NC/VA... The path of center of Tropical Storm Helene finally has turned northward. See SPC Tornado watch 688 and associated mesoscale discussions for near-term coverage of the tornado threat over the region. Refer to NHC advisories for the latest track/intensity guidance on Helene. The NHC forecast shows that the center should bend northwestward across southwestern NC, eastern TN and into southern KY through tonight, weakening greatly and becoming more closely conjoined with the mid/upper cyclone. For several more hours, into at least midday, a broad area of strong low-level flow above the surface, and related large low-level shear/hodographs, should extend well east and northeast of center across the outlook area, superimposed over: 1. Relatively maximized low-level convergence, in an arc initially located over eastern SC into southern NC, preceded by well-backed surface winds, and forecast to shift northward to northeastward today; 2. A richly moist, high-theta-e and weak-MLCINH boundary layer advecting inland from the Atlantic and characterized by surface dewpoints commonly in the 70s F. These conditions will yield a favorable environment for tornadoes from any supercells that can cross it, whether within or ahead of the main spiral/convergence band. The most probable area for several supercells to interact with this favorable airmass is over the 10%/"enhanced" tornado-risk area, with potential decreasing westward and northward from there due to weaker instability. Although the supportive low-level airmass will continue to shift northeastward over eastern NC and south-central/southeastern VA this afternoon, tornado potential will diminish with time from midafternoon into early evening. This will occur as convection decreases in coverage and intensity across the area due to a combination of weakening lift and shear, as the remnants of Helene decay rapidly and back well westward away from the area. This process will decouple the remaining stronger low-level flow and isallobaric forcing away from the most-favorable boundary layer near the coast, where hodographs should shrink by the hour this afternoon into evening. ..Edwards/Broyles.. 09/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 271300Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERNMOST SOUTH CAROLINA OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN/EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes will be most likely through midday and remain possible into afternoon across parts of the Carolinas and Virginia. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, a zonal to west-southwesterly belt of flow will persist from the northwestern CONUS and western Canada into central Canada, well-removed from a cut-off, cold-core low now evident in moisture-channel imagery over northern MS. This low is expected to pivot slowly northeastward into middle TN by 00Z, then wobble erratically over that area and/or south-central KY through the night as it absorbs the remnant vorticity max from what is now Tropical Storm Helene. ...SC/NC/VA... The path of center of Tropical Storm Helene finally has turned northward. See SPC Tornado watch 688 and associated mesoscale discussions for near-term coverage of the tornado threat over the region. Refer to NHC advisories for the latest track/intensity guidance on Helene. The NHC forecast shows that the center should bend northwestward across southwestern NC, eastern TN and into southern KY through tonight, weakening greatly and becoming more closely conjoined with the mid/upper cyclone. For several more hours, into at least midday, a broad area of strong low-level flow above the surface, and related large low-level shear/hodographs, should extend well east and northeast of center across the outlook area, superimposed over: 1. Relatively maximized low-level convergence, in an arc initially located over eastern SC into southern NC, preceded by well-backed surface winds, and forecast to shift northward to northeastward today; 2. A richly moist, high-theta-e and weak-MLCINH boundary layer advecting inland from the Atlantic and characterized by surface dewpoints commonly in the 70s F. These conditions will yield a favorable environment for tornadoes from any supercells that can cross it, whether within or ahead of the main spiral/convergence band. The most probable area for several supercells to interact with this favorable airmass is over the 10%/"enhanced" tornado-risk area, with potential decreasing westward and northward from there due to weaker instability. Although the supportive low-level airmass will continue to shift northeastward over eastern NC and south-central/southeastern VA this afternoon, tornado potential will diminish with time from midafternoon into early evening. This will occur as convection decreases in coverage and intensity across the area due to a combination of weakening lift and shear, as the remnants of Helene decay rapidly and back well westward away from the area. This process will decouple the remaining stronger low-level flow and isallobaric forcing away from the most-favorable boundary layer near the coast, where hodographs should shrink by the hour this afternoon into evening. ..Edwards/Broyles.. 09/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 271300Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERNMOST SOUTH CAROLINA OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN/EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes will be most likely through midday and remain possible into afternoon across parts of the Carolinas and Virginia. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, a zonal to west-southwesterly belt of flow will persist from the northwestern CONUS and western Canada into central Canada, well-removed from a cut-off, cold-core low now evident in moisture-channel imagery over northern MS. This low is expected to pivot slowly northeastward into middle TN by 00Z, then wobble erratically over that area and/or south-central KY through the night as it absorbs the remnant vorticity max from what is now Tropical Storm Helene. ...SC/NC/VA... The path of center of Tropical Storm Helene finally has turned northward. See SPC Tornado watch 688 and associated mesoscale discussions for near-term coverage of the tornado threat over the region. Refer to NHC advisories for the latest track/intensity guidance on Helene. The NHC forecast shows that the center should bend northwestward across southwestern NC, eastern TN and into southern KY through tonight, weakening greatly and becoming more closely conjoined with the mid/upper cyclone. For several more hours, into at least midday, a broad area of strong low-level flow above the surface, and related large low-level shear/hodographs, should extend well east and northeast of center across the outlook area, superimposed over: 1. Relatively maximized low-level convergence, in an arc initially located over eastern SC into southern NC, preceded by well-backed surface winds, and forecast to shift northward to northeastward today; 2. A richly moist, high-theta-e and weak-MLCINH boundary layer advecting inland from the Atlantic and characterized by surface dewpoints commonly in the 70s F. These conditions will yield a favorable environment for tornadoes from any supercells that can cross it, whether within or ahead of the main spiral/convergence band. The most probable area for several supercells to interact with this favorable airmass is over the 10%/"enhanced" tornado-risk area, with potential decreasing westward and northward from there due to weaker instability. Although the supportive low-level airmass will continue to shift northeastward over eastern NC and south-central/southeastern VA this afternoon, tornado potential will diminish with time from midafternoon into early evening. This will occur as convection decreases in coverage and intensity across the area due to a combination of weakening lift and shear, as the remnants of Helene decay rapidly and back well westward away from the area. This process will decouple the remaining stronger low-level flow and isallobaric forcing away from the most-favorable boundary layer near the coast, where hodographs should shrink by the hour this afternoon into evening. ..Edwards/Broyles.. 09/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 271300Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERNMOST SOUTH CAROLINA OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN/EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes will be most likely through midday and remain possible into afternoon across parts of the Carolinas and Virginia. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, a zonal to west-southwesterly belt of flow will persist from the northwestern CONUS and western Canada into central Canada, well-removed from a cut-off, cold-core low now evident in moisture-channel imagery over northern MS. This low is expected to pivot slowly northeastward into middle TN by 00Z, then wobble erratically over that area and/or south-central KY through the night as it absorbs the remnant vorticity max from what is now Tropical Storm Helene. ...SC/NC/VA... The path of center of Tropical Storm Helene finally has turned northward. See SPC Tornado watch 688 and associated mesoscale discussions for near-term coverage of the tornado threat over the region. Refer to NHC advisories for the latest track/intensity guidance on Helene. The NHC forecast shows that the center should bend northwestward across southwestern NC, eastern TN and into southern KY through tonight, weakening greatly and becoming more closely conjoined with the mid/upper cyclone. For several more hours, into at least midday, a broad area of strong low-level flow above the surface, and related large low-level shear/hodographs, should extend well east and northeast of center across the outlook area, superimposed over: 1. Relatively maximized low-level convergence, in an arc initially located over eastern SC into southern NC, preceded by well-backed surface winds, and forecast to shift northward to northeastward today; 2. A richly moist, high-theta-e and weak-MLCINH boundary layer advecting inland from the Atlantic and characterized by surface dewpoints commonly in the 70s F. These conditions will yield a favorable environment for tornadoes from any supercells that can cross it, whether within or ahead of the main spiral/convergence band. The most probable area for several supercells to interact with this favorable airmass is over the 10%/"enhanced" tornado-risk area, with potential decreasing westward and northward from there due to weaker instability. Although the supportive low-level airmass will continue to shift northeastward over eastern NC and south-central/southeastern VA this afternoon, tornado potential will diminish with time from midafternoon into early evening. This will occur as convection decreases in coverage and intensity across the area due to a combination of weakening lift and shear, as the remnants of Helene decay rapidly and back well westward away from the area. This process will decouple the remaining stronger low-level flow and isallobaric forcing away from the most-favorable boundary layer near the coast, where hodographs should shrink by the hour this afternoon into evening. ..Edwards/Broyles.. 09/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 271300Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERNMOST SOUTH CAROLINA OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN/EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes will be most likely through midday and remain possible into afternoon across parts of the Carolinas and Virginia. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, a zonal to west-southwesterly belt of flow will persist from the northwestern CONUS and western Canada into central Canada, well-removed from a cut-off, cold-core low now evident in moisture-channel imagery over northern MS. This low is expected to pivot slowly northeastward into middle TN by 00Z, then wobble erratically over that area and/or south-central KY through the night as it absorbs the remnant vorticity max from what is now Tropical Storm Helene. ...SC/NC/VA... The path of center of Tropical Storm Helene finally has turned northward. See SPC Tornado watch 688 and associated mesoscale discussions for near-term coverage of the tornado threat over the region. Refer to NHC advisories for the latest track/intensity guidance on Helene. The NHC forecast shows that the center should bend northwestward across southwestern NC, eastern TN and into southern KY through tonight, weakening greatly and becoming more closely conjoined with the mid/upper cyclone. For several more hours, into at least midday, a broad area of strong low-level flow above the surface, and related large low-level shear/hodographs, should extend well east and northeast of center across the outlook area, superimposed over: 1. Relatively maximized low-level convergence, in an arc initially located over eastern SC into southern NC, preceded by well-backed surface winds, and forecast to shift northward to northeastward today; 2. A richly moist, high-theta-e and weak-MLCINH boundary layer advecting inland from the Atlantic and characterized by surface dewpoints commonly in the 70s F. These conditions will yield a favorable environment for tornadoes from any supercells that can cross it, whether within or ahead of the main spiral/convergence band. The most probable area for several supercells to interact with this favorable airmass is over the 10%/"enhanced" tornado-risk area, with potential decreasing westward and northward from there due to weaker instability. Although the supportive low-level airmass will continue to shift northeastward over eastern NC and south-central/southeastern VA this afternoon, tornado potential will diminish with time from midafternoon into early evening. This will occur as convection decreases in coverage and intensity across the area due to a combination of weakening lift and shear, as the remnants of Helene decay rapidly and back well westward away from the area. This process will decouple the remaining stronger low-level flow and isallobaric forcing away from the most-favorable boundary layer near the coast, where hodographs should shrink by the hour this afternoon into evening. ..Edwards/Broyles.. 09/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 271300Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERNMOST SOUTH CAROLINA OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN/EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes will be most likely through midday and remain possible into afternoon across parts of the Carolinas and Virginia. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, a zonal to west-southwesterly belt of flow will persist from the northwestern CONUS and western Canada into central Canada, well-removed from a cut-off, cold-core low now evident in moisture-channel imagery over northern MS. This low is expected to pivot slowly northeastward into middle TN by 00Z, then wobble erratically over that area and/or south-central KY through the night as it absorbs the remnant vorticity max from what is now Tropical Storm Helene. ...SC/NC/VA... The path of center of Tropical Storm Helene finally has turned northward. See SPC Tornado watch 688 and associated mesoscale discussions for near-term coverage of the tornado threat over the region. Refer to NHC advisories for the latest track/intensity guidance on Helene. The NHC forecast shows that the center should bend northwestward across southwestern NC, eastern TN and into southern KY through tonight, weakening greatly and becoming more closely conjoined with the mid/upper cyclone. For several more hours, into at least midday, a broad area of strong low-level flow above the surface, and related large low-level shear/hodographs, should extend well east and northeast of center across the outlook area, superimposed over: 1. Relatively maximized low-level convergence, in an arc initially located over eastern SC into southern NC, preceded by well-backed surface winds, and forecast to shift northward to northeastward today; 2. A richly moist, high-theta-e and weak-MLCINH boundary layer advecting inland from the Atlantic and characterized by surface dewpoints commonly in the 70s F. These conditions will yield a favorable environment for tornadoes from any supercells that can cross it, whether within or ahead of the main spiral/convergence band. The most probable area for several supercells to interact with this favorable airmass is over the 10%/"enhanced" tornado-risk area, with potential decreasing westward and northward from there due to weaker instability. Although the supportive low-level airmass will continue to shift northeastward over eastern NC and south-central/southeastern VA this afternoon, tornado potential will diminish with time from midafternoon into early evening. This will occur as convection decreases in coverage and intensity across the area due to a combination of weakening lift and shear, as the remnants of Helene decay rapidly and back well westward away from the area. This process will decouple the remaining stronger low-level flow and isallobaric forcing away from the most-favorable boundary layer near the coast, where hodographs should shrink by the hour this afternoon into evening. ..Edwards/Broyles.. 09/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 271300Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERNMOST SOUTH CAROLINA OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN/EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes will be most likely through midday and remain possible into afternoon across parts of the Carolinas and Virginia. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, a zonal to west-southwesterly belt of flow will persist from the northwestern CONUS and western Canada into central Canada, well-removed from a cut-off, cold-core low now evident in moisture-channel imagery over northern MS. This low is expected to pivot slowly northeastward into middle TN by 00Z, then wobble erratically over that area and/or south-central KY through the night as it absorbs the remnant vorticity max from what is now Tropical Storm Helene. ...SC/NC/VA... The path of center of Tropical Storm Helene finally has turned northward. See SPC Tornado watch 688 and associated mesoscale discussions for near-term coverage of the tornado threat over the region. Refer to NHC advisories for the latest track/intensity guidance on Helene. The NHC forecast shows that the center should bend northwestward across southwestern NC, eastern TN and into southern KY through tonight, weakening greatly and becoming more closely conjoined with the mid/upper cyclone. For several more hours, into at least midday, a broad area of strong low-level flow above the surface, and related large low-level shear/hodographs, should extend well east and northeast of center across the outlook area, superimposed over: 1. Relatively maximized low-level convergence, in an arc initially located over eastern SC into southern NC, preceded by well-backed surface winds, and forecast to shift northward to northeastward today; 2. A richly moist, high-theta-e and weak-MLCINH boundary layer advecting inland from the Atlantic and characterized by surface dewpoints commonly in the 70s F. These conditions will yield a favorable environment for tornadoes from any supercells that can cross it, whether within or ahead of the main spiral/convergence band. The most probable area for several supercells to interact with this favorable airmass is over the 10%/"enhanced" tornado-risk area, with potential decreasing westward and northward from there due to weaker instability. Although the supportive low-level airmass will continue to shift northeastward over eastern NC and south-central/southeastern VA this afternoon, tornado potential will diminish with time from midafternoon into early evening. This will occur as convection decreases in coverage and intensity across the area due to a combination of weakening lift and shear, as the remnants of Helene decay rapidly and back well westward away from the area. This process will decouple the remaining stronger low-level flow and isallobaric forcing away from the most-favorable boundary layer near the coast, where hodographs should shrink by the hour this afternoon into evening. ..Edwards/Broyles.. 09/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 271300Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERNMOST SOUTH CAROLINA OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN/EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes will be most likely through midday and remain possible into afternoon across parts of the Carolinas and Virginia. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, a zonal to west-southwesterly belt of flow will persist from the northwestern CONUS and western Canada into central Canada, well-removed from a cut-off, cold-core low now evident in moisture-channel imagery over northern MS. This low is expected to pivot slowly northeastward into middle TN by 00Z, then wobble erratically over that area and/or south-central KY through the night as it absorbs the remnant vorticity max from what is now Tropical Storm Helene. ...SC/NC/VA... The path of center of Tropical Storm Helene finally has turned northward. See SPC Tornado watch 688 and associated mesoscale discussions for near-term coverage of the tornado threat over the region. Refer to NHC advisories for the latest track/intensity guidance on Helene. The NHC forecast shows that the center should bend northwestward across southwestern NC, eastern TN and into southern KY through tonight, weakening greatly and becoming more closely conjoined with the mid/upper cyclone. For several more hours, into at least midday, a broad area of strong low-level flow above the surface, and related large low-level shear/hodographs, should extend well east and northeast of center across the outlook area, superimposed over: 1. Relatively maximized low-level convergence, in an arc initially located over eastern SC into southern NC, preceded by well-backed surface winds, and forecast to shift northward to northeastward today; 2. A richly moist, high-theta-e and weak-MLCINH boundary layer advecting inland from the Atlantic and characterized by surface dewpoints commonly in the 70s F. These conditions will yield a favorable environment for tornadoes from any supercells that can cross it, whether within or ahead of the main spiral/convergence band. The most probable area for several supercells to interact with this favorable airmass is over the 10%/"enhanced" tornado-risk area, with potential decreasing westward and northward from there due to weaker instability. Although the supportive low-level airmass will continue to shift northeastward over eastern NC and south-central/southeastern VA this afternoon, tornado potential will diminish with time from midafternoon into early evening. This will occur as convection decreases in coverage and intensity across the area due to a combination of weakening lift and shear, as the remnants of Helene decay rapidly and back well westward away from the area. This process will decouple the remaining stronger low-level flow and isallobaric forcing away from the most-favorable boundary layer near the coast, where hodographs should shrink by the hour this afternoon into evening. ..Edwards/Broyles.. 09/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 271300Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERNMOST SOUTH CAROLINA OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN/EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes will be most likely through midday and remain possible into afternoon across parts of the Carolinas and Virginia. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, a zonal to west-southwesterly belt of flow will persist from the northwestern CONUS and western Canada into central Canada, well-removed from a cut-off, cold-core low now evident in moisture-channel imagery over northern MS. This low is expected to pivot slowly northeastward into middle TN by 00Z, then wobble erratically over that area and/or south-central KY through the night as it absorbs the remnant vorticity max from what is now Tropical Storm Helene. ...SC/NC/VA... The path of center of Tropical Storm Helene finally has turned northward. See SPC Tornado watch 688 and associated mesoscale discussions for near-term coverage of the tornado threat over the region. Refer to NHC advisories for the latest track/intensity guidance on Helene. The NHC forecast shows that the center should bend northwestward across southwestern NC, eastern TN and into southern KY through tonight, weakening greatly and becoming more closely conjoined with the mid/upper cyclone. For several more hours, into at least midday, a broad area of strong low-level flow above the surface, and related large low-level shear/hodographs, should extend well east and northeast of center across the outlook area, superimposed over: 1. Relatively maximized low-level convergence, in an arc initially located over eastern SC into southern NC, preceded by well-backed surface winds, and forecast to shift northward to northeastward today; 2. A richly moist, high-theta-e and weak-MLCINH boundary layer advecting inland from the Atlantic and characterized by surface dewpoints commonly in the 70s F. These conditions will yield a favorable environment for tornadoes from any supercells that can cross it, whether within or ahead of the main spiral/convergence band. The most probable area for several supercells to interact with this favorable airmass is over the 10%/"enhanced" tornado-risk area, with potential decreasing westward and northward from there due to weaker instability. Although the supportive low-level airmass will continue to shift northeastward over eastern NC and south-central/southeastern VA this afternoon, tornado potential will diminish with time from midafternoon into early evening. This will occur as convection decreases in coverage and intensity across the area due to a combination of weakening lift and shear, as the remnants of Helene decay rapidly and back well westward away from the area. This process will decouple the remaining stronger low-level flow and isallobaric forcing away from the most-favorable boundary layer near the coast, where hodographs should shrink by the hour this afternoon into evening. ..Edwards/Broyles.. 09/27/2024 Read more

WW 0688 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 688 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..09/27/24 ATTN...WFO...RAH...MHX...AKQ...ILM...GSP...RNK...CAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 688 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC001-007-013-015-017-019-025-029-031-033-037-041-047-049-051- 053-055-057-059-061-063-065-067-069-073-077-079-081-083-085-091- 093-095-101-103-105-107-117-119-123-125-127-129-131-133-135-137- 139-141-143-145-147-151-153-155-157-159-163-165-167-169-171-177- 179-181-183-185-187-191-195-197-271340- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALAMANCE ANSON BEAUFORT BERTIE BLADEN BRUNSWICK CABARRUS CAMDEN CARTERET CASWELL CHATHAM CHOWAN COLUMBUS CRAVEN CUMBERLAND CURRITUCK DARE DAVIDSON DAVIE DUPLIN DURHAM EDGECOMBE FORSYTH FRANKLIN GATES GRANVILLE GREENE GUILFORD HALIFAX HARNETT HERTFORD HOKE HYDE JOHNSTON JONES LEE LENOIR MARTIN MECKLENBURG MONTGOMERY MOORE NASH NEW HANOVER NORTHAMPTON ONSLOW ORANGE PAMLICO PASQUOTANK PENDER PERQUIMANS PERSON Read more

No watches are valid as of Fri Sep 27 12:02:02 UTC 2024.