SPC Sep 27, 2024 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

11 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes will be possible this afternoon across parts of North Carolina and Virginia. ...Synopsis... The center of Helene is tracking quickly northward across the mountains over western NC/east TN, with a band of strong convection to the east of the low extending from southern VA into eastern NC. Local VAD profiles, surface observations, and model guidance indicate a continuing very favorable environment for transient rotating updrafts along this line and the risk of a few tornadoes. Guidance suggests that low-level wind shear will slowly weaken this afternoon throughout the northeastern quadrant of the system, with the line of convection lifting northeastward into a progressively less moist air mass. Little diurnal heating is expected ahead of the line, limiting destabilization. These trends would suggest the overall risk of tornadoes will also slowly weaken by evening. ..Hart/Weinman.. 09/27/2024 Read more

SPC Sep 27, 2024 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

11 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes will be possible this afternoon across parts of North Carolina and Virginia. ...Synopsis... The center of Helene is tracking quickly northward across the mountains over western NC/east TN, with a band of strong convection to the east of the low extending from southern VA into eastern NC. Local VAD profiles, surface observations, and model guidance indicate a continuing very favorable environment for transient rotating updrafts along this line and the risk of a few tornadoes. Guidance suggests that low-level wind shear will slowly weaken this afternoon throughout the northeastern quadrant of the system, with the line of convection lifting northeastward into a progressively less moist air mass. Little diurnal heating is expected ahead of the line, limiting destabilization. These trends would suggest the overall risk of tornadoes will also slowly weaken by evening. ..Hart/Weinman.. 09/27/2024 Read more

SPC Sep 27, 2024 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

11 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes will be possible this afternoon across parts of North Carolina and Virginia. ...Synopsis... The center of Helene is tracking quickly northward across the mountains over western NC/east TN, with a band of strong convection to the east of the low extending from southern VA into eastern NC. Local VAD profiles, surface observations, and model guidance indicate a continuing very favorable environment for transient rotating updrafts along this line and the risk of a few tornadoes. Guidance suggests that low-level wind shear will slowly weaken this afternoon throughout the northeastern quadrant of the system, with the line of convection lifting northeastward into a progressively less moist air mass. Little diurnal heating is expected ahead of the line, limiting destabilization. These trends would suggest the overall risk of tornadoes will also slowly weaken by evening. ..Hart/Weinman.. 09/27/2024 Read more

SPC Sep 27, 2024 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

11 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes will be possible this afternoon across parts of North Carolina and Virginia. ...Synopsis... The center of Helene is tracking quickly northward across the mountains over western NC/east TN, with a band of strong convection to the east of the low extending from southern VA into eastern NC. Local VAD profiles, surface observations, and model guidance indicate a continuing very favorable environment for transient rotating updrafts along this line and the risk of a few tornadoes. Guidance suggests that low-level wind shear will slowly weaken this afternoon throughout the northeastern quadrant of the system, with the line of convection lifting northeastward into a progressively less moist air mass. Little diurnal heating is expected ahead of the line, limiting destabilization. These trends would suggest the overall risk of tornadoes will also slowly weaken by evening. ..Hart/Weinman.. 09/27/2024 Read more

SPC Sep 27, 2024 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

11 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes will be possible this afternoon across parts of North Carolina and Virginia. ...Synopsis... The center of Helene is tracking quickly northward across the mountains over western NC/east TN, with a band of strong convection to the east of the low extending from southern VA into eastern NC. Local VAD profiles, surface observations, and model guidance indicate a continuing very favorable environment for transient rotating updrafts along this line and the risk of a few tornadoes. Guidance suggests that low-level wind shear will slowly weaken this afternoon throughout the northeastern quadrant of the system, with the line of convection lifting northeastward into a progressively less moist air mass. Little diurnal heating is expected ahead of the line, limiting destabilization. These trends would suggest the overall risk of tornadoes will also slowly weaken by evening. ..Hart/Weinman.. 09/27/2024 Read more

SPC Sep 27, 2024 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

11 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes will be possible this afternoon across parts of North Carolina and Virginia. ...Synopsis... The center of Helene is tracking quickly northward across the mountains over western NC/east TN, with a band of strong convection to the east of the low extending from southern VA into eastern NC. Local VAD profiles, surface observations, and model guidance indicate a continuing very favorable environment for transient rotating updrafts along this line and the risk of a few tornadoes. Guidance suggests that low-level wind shear will slowly weaken this afternoon throughout the northeastern quadrant of the system, with the line of convection lifting northeastward into a progressively less moist air mass. Little diurnal heating is expected ahead of the line, limiting destabilization. These trends would suggest the overall risk of tornadoes will also slowly weaken by evening. ..Hart/Weinman.. 09/27/2024 Read more

SPC Sep 27, 2024 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

11 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes will be possible this afternoon across parts of North Carolina and Virginia. ...Synopsis... The center of Helene is tracking quickly northward across the mountains over western NC/east TN, with a band of strong convection to the east of the low extending from southern VA into eastern NC. Local VAD profiles, surface observations, and model guidance indicate a continuing very favorable environment for transient rotating updrafts along this line and the risk of a few tornadoes. Guidance suggests that low-level wind shear will slowly weaken this afternoon throughout the northeastern quadrant of the system, with the line of convection lifting northeastward into a progressively less moist air mass. Little diurnal heating is expected ahead of the line, limiting destabilization. These trends would suggest the overall risk of tornadoes will also slowly weaken by evening. ..Hart/Weinman.. 09/27/2024 Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 688 Status Reports

11 months 2 weeks ago
WW 0688 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 688 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S CRE TO 10 E FAY TO 15 W RDU TO 20 W DAN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2124. ..GRAMS..09/27/24 ATTN...WFO...RAH...MHX...AKQ...ILM...GSP...RNK...CAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 688 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC013-015-017-019-029-031-033-041-047-049-053-055-061-063-065- 069-073-077-079-083-085-091-095-101-103-107-117-127-129-131-133- 135-137-139-141-143-145-147-163-177-181-183-185-187-191-195- 271640- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAUFORT BERTIE BLADEN BRUNSWICK CAMDEN CARTERET CASWELL CHOWAN COLUMBUS CRAVEN CURRITUCK DARE DUPLIN DURHAM EDGECOMBE FRANKLIN GATES GRANVILLE GREENE HALIFAX HARNETT HERTFORD HYDE JOHNSTON JONES LENOIR MARTIN NASH NEW HANOVER NORTHAMPTON ONSLOW ORANGE PAMLICO PASQUOTANK PENDER PERQUIMANS PERSON PITT SAMPSON TYRRELL VANCE WAKE WARREN WASHINGTON WAYNE Read more

SPC MD 2124

11 months 2 weeks ago
MD 2124 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 688... FOR SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL/EASTERN NC AND SOUTHERN VA
Mesoscale Discussion 2124 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0848 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Areas affected...Southern to central/eastern NC and southern VA Concerning...Tornado Watch 688... Valid 271348Z - 271545Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 688 continues. SUMMARY...Tornado threat is expected to peak into early afternoon across southern, eastern, and central North Carolina, into a part of southern Virginia. This threat will abruptly end in the wake of ongoing band passage associated with Tropical Storm Helene. DISCUSSION...Several supercells are ongoing within a roughly 300-km long convective band, with the inland portion approaching the Raleigh-Durham Metro Area and the trailing portion to along the NC/SC border area. Individual cells are largely transient and progressing north at 45-55 kts. The overall band will rapidly sweep across much of central and eastern North Carolina into midday before entering southern VA. Low-level hodographs are currently maximized, with 0-1 km SRH around 500-600 m2/s2 per LTX/RAX VWP data. These are expected to shrink during the afternoon, suggesting the tornado threat will wane later today. Boundary-layer heating will remain limited by pervasive cloud coverage downstream, but even minor insolation amid mid 70s surface dew points should provide enough boost to increase daytime tornado potential. In the wake of the band, substantial mid-level warming/drying will curtail additional development and the threat will be confined along/ahead of the ongoing band. ..Grams.. 09/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK... LAT...LON 35907983 36187990 36707984 37377940 37507891 37387841 37027759 35977679 35177666 34627648 33777797 33827883 35217924 35907983 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

11 months 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1022 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed. Dry conditions are noted this morning across much of the West, but low-level winds should remain benign for today. Locally elevated conditions may develop in the lee of the Lewis Range and Big Belt mountains in central MT where downslope winds may gust up to 20-30 mph with RH in the 20-25% range; however, these conditions should remain too localized for a broader risk area. ..Moore.. 09/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1237 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... On Friday an upper-level ridge will remain in place over the Southwest and Rocky Mountains, while the remnants of Hurricane Helene rotate over the eastern CONUS centered near TN. This pattern will not favor widespread fire weather conditions, as any stronger mid-level flow and associated surface winds, accompanying a high latitude zonal jet streak, are expected to remain over the western and central provinces of Canada. Due to a lack of appreciable rainfall over the northern Great Plains, however, fuels will continue to become more receptive to ignition and spread there. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

11 months 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1022 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed. Dry conditions are noted this morning across much of the West, but low-level winds should remain benign for today. Locally elevated conditions may develop in the lee of the Lewis Range and Big Belt mountains in central MT where downslope winds may gust up to 20-30 mph with RH in the 20-25% range; however, these conditions should remain too localized for a broader risk area. ..Moore.. 09/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1237 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... On Friday an upper-level ridge will remain in place over the Southwest and Rocky Mountains, while the remnants of Hurricane Helene rotate over the eastern CONUS centered near TN. This pattern will not favor widespread fire weather conditions, as any stronger mid-level flow and associated surface winds, accompanying a high latitude zonal jet streak, are expected to remain over the western and central provinces of Canada. Due to a lack of appreciable rainfall over the northern Great Plains, however, fuels will continue to become more receptive to ignition and spread there. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

11 months 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1022 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed. Dry conditions are noted this morning across much of the West, but low-level winds should remain benign for today. Locally elevated conditions may develop in the lee of the Lewis Range and Big Belt mountains in central MT where downslope winds may gust up to 20-30 mph with RH in the 20-25% range; however, these conditions should remain too localized for a broader risk area. ..Moore.. 09/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1237 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... On Friday an upper-level ridge will remain in place over the Southwest and Rocky Mountains, while the remnants of Hurricane Helene rotate over the eastern CONUS centered near TN. This pattern will not favor widespread fire weather conditions, as any stronger mid-level flow and associated surface winds, accompanying a high latitude zonal jet streak, are expected to remain over the western and central provinces of Canada. Due to a lack of appreciable rainfall over the northern Great Plains, however, fuels will continue to become more receptive to ignition and spread there. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

11 months 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1022 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed. Dry conditions are noted this morning across much of the West, but low-level winds should remain benign for today. Locally elevated conditions may develop in the lee of the Lewis Range and Big Belt mountains in central MT where downslope winds may gust up to 20-30 mph with RH in the 20-25% range; however, these conditions should remain too localized for a broader risk area. ..Moore.. 09/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1237 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... On Friday an upper-level ridge will remain in place over the Southwest and Rocky Mountains, while the remnants of Hurricane Helene rotate over the eastern CONUS centered near TN. This pattern will not favor widespread fire weather conditions, as any stronger mid-level flow and associated surface winds, accompanying a high latitude zonal jet streak, are expected to remain over the western and central provinces of Canada. Due to a lack of appreciable rainfall over the northern Great Plains, however, fuels will continue to become more receptive to ignition and spread there. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

11 months 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1022 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed. Dry conditions are noted this morning across much of the West, but low-level winds should remain benign for today. Locally elevated conditions may develop in the lee of the Lewis Range and Big Belt mountains in central MT where downslope winds may gust up to 20-30 mph with RH in the 20-25% range; however, these conditions should remain too localized for a broader risk area. ..Moore.. 09/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1237 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... On Friday an upper-level ridge will remain in place over the Southwest and Rocky Mountains, while the remnants of Hurricane Helene rotate over the eastern CONUS centered near TN. This pattern will not favor widespread fire weather conditions, as any stronger mid-level flow and associated surface winds, accompanying a high latitude zonal jet streak, are expected to remain over the western and central provinces of Canada. Due to a lack of appreciable rainfall over the northern Great Plains, however, fuels will continue to become more receptive to ignition and spread there. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

11 months 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1022 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed. Dry conditions are noted this morning across much of the West, but low-level winds should remain benign for today. Locally elevated conditions may develop in the lee of the Lewis Range and Big Belt mountains in central MT where downslope winds may gust up to 20-30 mph with RH in the 20-25% range; however, these conditions should remain too localized for a broader risk area. ..Moore.. 09/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1237 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... On Friday an upper-level ridge will remain in place over the Southwest and Rocky Mountains, while the remnants of Hurricane Helene rotate over the eastern CONUS centered near TN. This pattern will not favor widespread fire weather conditions, as any stronger mid-level flow and associated surface winds, accompanying a high latitude zonal jet streak, are expected to remain over the western and central provinces of Canada. Due to a lack of appreciable rainfall over the northern Great Plains, however, fuels will continue to become more receptive to ignition and spread there. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

11 months 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1022 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed. Dry conditions are noted this morning across much of the West, but low-level winds should remain benign for today. Locally elevated conditions may develop in the lee of the Lewis Range and Big Belt mountains in central MT where downslope winds may gust up to 20-30 mph with RH in the 20-25% range; however, these conditions should remain too localized for a broader risk area. ..Moore.. 09/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1237 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... On Friday an upper-level ridge will remain in place over the Southwest and Rocky Mountains, while the remnants of Hurricane Helene rotate over the eastern CONUS centered near TN. This pattern will not favor widespread fire weather conditions, as any stronger mid-level flow and associated surface winds, accompanying a high latitude zonal jet streak, are expected to remain over the western and central provinces of Canada. Due to a lack of appreciable rainfall over the northern Great Plains, however, fuels will continue to become more receptive to ignition and spread there. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

11 months 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1022 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed. Dry conditions are noted this morning across much of the West, but low-level winds should remain benign for today. Locally elevated conditions may develop in the lee of the Lewis Range and Big Belt mountains in central MT where downslope winds may gust up to 20-30 mph with RH in the 20-25% range; however, these conditions should remain too localized for a broader risk area. ..Moore.. 09/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1237 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... On Friday an upper-level ridge will remain in place over the Southwest and Rocky Mountains, while the remnants of Hurricane Helene rotate over the eastern CONUS centered near TN. This pattern will not favor widespread fire weather conditions, as any stronger mid-level flow and associated surface winds, accompanying a high latitude zonal jet streak, are expected to remain over the western and central provinces of Canada. Due to a lack of appreciable rainfall over the northern Great Plains, however, fuels will continue to become more receptive to ignition and spread there. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

11 months 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1022 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed. Dry conditions are noted this morning across much of the West, but low-level winds should remain benign for today. Locally elevated conditions may develop in the lee of the Lewis Range and Big Belt mountains in central MT where downslope winds may gust up to 20-30 mph with RH in the 20-25% range; however, these conditions should remain too localized for a broader risk area. ..Moore.. 09/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1237 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... On Friday an upper-level ridge will remain in place over the Southwest and Rocky Mountains, while the remnants of Hurricane Helene rotate over the eastern CONUS centered near TN. This pattern will not favor widespread fire weather conditions, as any stronger mid-level flow and associated surface winds, accompanying a high latitude zonal jet streak, are expected to remain over the western and central provinces of Canada. Due to a lack of appreciable rainfall over the northern Great Plains, however, fuels will continue to become more receptive to ignition and spread there. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

11 months 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1022 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed. Dry conditions are noted this morning across much of the West, but low-level winds should remain benign for today. Locally elevated conditions may develop in the lee of the Lewis Range and Big Belt mountains in central MT where downslope winds may gust up to 20-30 mph with RH in the 20-25% range; however, these conditions should remain too localized for a broader risk area. ..Moore.. 09/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1237 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... On Friday an upper-level ridge will remain in place over the Southwest and Rocky Mountains, while the remnants of Hurricane Helene rotate over the eastern CONUS centered near TN. This pattern will not favor widespread fire weather conditions, as any stronger mid-level flow and associated surface winds, accompanying a high latitude zonal jet streak, are expected to remain over the western and central provinces of Canada. Due to a lack of appreciable rainfall over the northern Great Plains, however, fuels will continue to become more receptive to ignition and spread there. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

11 months 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1022 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed. Dry conditions are noted this morning across much of the West, but low-level winds should remain benign for today. Locally elevated conditions may develop in the lee of the Lewis Range and Big Belt mountains in central MT where downslope winds may gust up to 20-30 mph with RH in the 20-25% range; however, these conditions should remain too localized for a broader risk area. ..Moore.. 09/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1237 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... On Friday an upper-level ridge will remain in place over the Southwest and Rocky Mountains, while the remnants of Hurricane Helene rotate over the eastern CONUS centered near TN. This pattern will not favor widespread fire weather conditions, as any stronger mid-level flow and associated surface winds, accompanying a high latitude zonal jet streak, are expected to remain over the western and central provinces of Canada. Due to a lack of appreciable rainfall over the northern Great Plains, however, fuels will continue to become more receptive to ignition and spread there. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
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