Aggregator

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH AND TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely across portions of the Mid-South, Tennessee Valley, and lower Ohio River Valley on Tuesday, including damaging winds and tornadoes, a few of which could be strong. ...Mid-South and Tennessee/Lower Ohio Valleys... Residual thunderstorms and associated cloud cover are expected to be ongoing across the Mid-South to lower Ohio Valley Tuesday morning, with the early day extensiveness of these storms, and related outflow/differential heating, to be key factors, and points of uncertainty, regarding later-day severe potential. This will especially be the case with northward extent toward the Ohio River and northern parts of the Cumberland Plateau. On the south/southwest edge of this early day activity, relatively rapid air mass recovery and destabilization can be expected, owing to sustained low-level moisture transport from the southwest in tandem with cloud breaks and an advancing mid-level dry slot. This will be as an upper low shifts northeastward over the middle Missouri Valley and Upper Midwest, with a cyclonically curved mid/upper-level jet streak overspreading the warm sector, which could be convectively contaminated near/north of the Ohio River. At least moderate buoyancy is forecast to develop across the unperturbed and weakly capped warm sector by early afternoon. It should be noted that multiple sub-regional areas, particularly across central/eastern portions of Kentucky and Tennessee, could receive multiple repeat-rounds of severe storms on Tuesday. Thunderstorm development will likely occur rather early in the afternoon as inhibition will be quickly eroded and dynamic forcing for ascent overspreads the warm sector. Very favorable supercell wind profiles will exist across most of the region via the mid-level jet and a diurnally sustained 30+ kt low-level jet. Initial supercells will pose a threat for all severe weather hazards including the potential for strong tornadoes, but a mixed convective mode should evolve as upscale growth occurs into multiple clusters. Relatively widespread damaging winds, along with a continued mixed-mode tornado potential, may occur by late afternoon and evening as storms spread east-southeastward toward the Appalachians vicinity. ...Carolinas and far southern Virginia... Weak height falls will begin to influence the region by late in the day with a warm front beginning to shift northward across the region. At least a conditional or isolated potential for severe storms including supercells will exist near the warm front and within the immediately adjacent warm sector. ..Guyer.. 05/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH AND TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely across portions of the Mid-South, Tennessee Valley, and lower Ohio River Valley on Tuesday, including damaging winds and tornadoes, a few of which could be strong. ...Mid-South and Tennessee/Lower Ohio Valleys... Residual thunderstorms and associated cloud cover are expected to be ongoing across the Mid-South to lower Ohio Valley Tuesday morning, with the early day extensiveness of these storms, and related outflow/differential heating, to be key factors, and points of uncertainty, regarding later-day severe potential. This will especially be the case with northward extent toward the Ohio River and northern parts of the Cumberland Plateau. On the south/southwest edge of this early day activity, relatively rapid air mass recovery and destabilization can be expected, owing to sustained low-level moisture transport from the southwest in tandem with cloud breaks and an advancing mid-level dry slot. This will be as an upper low shifts northeastward over the middle Missouri Valley and Upper Midwest, with a cyclonically curved mid/upper-level jet streak overspreading the warm sector, which could be convectively contaminated near/north of the Ohio River. At least moderate buoyancy is forecast to develop across the unperturbed and weakly capped warm sector by early afternoon. It should be noted that multiple sub-regional areas, particularly across central/eastern portions of Kentucky and Tennessee, could receive multiple repeat-rounds of severe storms on Tuesday. Thunderstorm development will likely occur rather early in the afternoon as inhibition will be quickly eroded and dynamic forcing for ascent overspreads the warm sector. Very favorable supercell wind profiles will exist across most of the region via the mid-level jet and a diurnally sustained 30+ kt low-level jet. Initial supercells will pose a threat for all severe weather hazards including the potential for strong tornadoes, but a mixed convective mode should evolve as upscale growth occurs into multiple clusters. Relatively widespread damaging winds, along with a continued mixed-mode tornado potential, may occur by late afternoon and evening as storms spread east-southeastward toward the Appalachians vicinity. ...Carolinas and far southern Virginia... Weak height falls will begin to influence the region by late in the day with a warm front beginning to shift northward across the region. At least a conditional or isolated potential for severe storms including supercells will exist near the warm front and within the immediately adjacent warm sector. ..Guyer.. 05/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH AND TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely across portions of the Mid-South, Tennessee Valley, and lower Ohio River Valley on Tuesday, including damaging winds and tornadoes, a few of which could be strong. ...Mid-South and Tennessee/Lower Ohio Valleys... Residual thunderstorms and associated cloud cover are expected to be ongoing across the Mid-South to lower Ohio Valley Tuesday morning, with the early day extensiveness of these storms, and related outflow/differential heating, to be key factors, and points of uncertainty, regarding later-day severe potential. This will especially be the case with northward extent toward the Ohio River and northern parts of the Cumberland Plateau. On the south/southwest edge of this early day activity, relatively rapid air mass recovery and destabilization can be expected, owing to sustained low-level moisture transport from the southwest in tandem with cloud breaks and an advancing mid-level dry slot. This will be as an upper low shifts northeastward over the middle Missouri Valley and Upper Midwest, with a cyclonically curved mid/upper-level jet streak overspreading the warm sector, which could be convectively contaminated near/north of the Ohio River. At least moderate buoyancy is forecast to develop across the unperturbed and weakly capped warm sector by early afternoon. It should be noted that multiple sub-regional areas, particularly across central/eastern portions of Kentucky and Tennessee, could receive multiple repeat-rounds of severe storms on Tuesday. Thunderstorm development will likely occur rather early in the afternoon as inhibition will be quickly eroded and dynamic forcing for ascent overspreads the warm sector. Very favorable supercell wind profiles will exist across most of the region via the mid-level jet and a diurnally sustained 30+ kt low-level jet. Initial supercells will pose a threat for all severe weather hazards including the potential for strong tornadoes, but a mixed convective mode should evolve as upscale growth occurs into multiple clusters. Relatively widespread damaging winds, along with a continued mixed-mode tornado potential, may occur by late afternoon and evening as storms spread east-southeastward toward the Appalachians vicinity. ...Carolinas and far southern Virginia... Weak height falls will begin to influence the region by late in the day with a warm front beginning to shift northward across the region. At least a conditional or isolated potential for severe storms including supercells will exist near the warm front and within the immediately adjacent warm sector. ..Guyer.. 05/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH AND TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely across portions of the Mid-South, Tennessee Valley, and lower Ohio River Valley on Tuesday, including damaging winds and tornadoes, a few of which could be strong. ...Mid-South and Tennessee/Lower Ohio Valleys... Residual thunderstorms and associated cloud cover are expected to be ongoing across the Mid-South to lower Ohio Valley Tuesday morning, with the early day extensiveness of these storms, and related outflow/differential heating, to be key factors, and points of uncertainty, regarding later-day severe potential. This will especially be the case with northward extent toward the Ohio River and northern parts of the Cumberland Plateau. On the south/southwest edge of this early day activity, relatively rapid air mass recovery and destabilization can be expected, owing to sustained low-level moisture transport from the southwest in tandem with cloud breaks and an advancing mid-level dry slot. This will be as an upper low shifts northeastward over the middle Missouri Valley and Upper Midwest, with a cyclonically curved mid/upper-level jet streak overspreading the warm sector, which could be convectively contaminated near/north of the Ohio River. At least moderate buoyancy is forecast to develop across the unperturbed and weakly capped warm sector by early afternoon. It should be noted that multiple sub-regional areas, particularly across central/eastern portions of Kentucky and Tennessee, could receive multiple repeat-rounds of severe storms on Tuesday. Thunderstorm development will likely occur rather early in the afternoon as inhibition will be quickly eroded and dynamic forcing for ascent overspreads the warm sector. Very favorable supercell wind profiles will exist across most of the region via the mid-level jet and a diurnally sustained 30+ kt low-level jet. Initial supercells will pose a threat for all severe weather hazards including the potential for strong tornadoes, but a mixed convective mode should evolve as upscale growth occurs into multiple clusters. Relatively widespread damaging winds, along with a continued mixed-mode tornado potential, may occur by late afternoon and evening as storms spread east-southeastward toward the Appalachians vicinity. ...Carolinas and far southern Virginia... Weak height falls will begin to influence the region by late in the day with a warm front beginning to shift northward across the region. At least a conditional or isolated potential for severe storms including supercells will exist near the warm front and within the immediately adjacent warm sector. ..Guyer.. 05/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH AND TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely across portions of the Mid-South, Tennessee Valley, and lower Ohio River Valley on Tuesday, including damaging winds and tornadoes, a few of which could be strong. ...Mid-South and Tennessee/Lower Ohio Valleys... Residual thunderstorms and associated cloud cover are expected to be ongoing across the Mid-South to lower Ohio Valley Tuesday morning, with the early day extensiveness of these storms, and related outflow/differential heating, to be key factors, and points of uncertainty, regarding later-day severe potential. This will especially be the case with northward extent toward the Ohio River and northern parts of the Cumberland Plateau. On the south/southwest edge of this early day activity, relatively rapid air mass recovery and destabilization can be expected, owing to sustained low-level moisture transport from the southwest in tandem with cloud breaks and an advancing mid-level dry slot. This will be as an upper low shifts northeastward over the middle Missouri Valley and Upper Midwest, with a cyclonically curved mid/upper-level jet streak overspreading the warm sector, which could be convectively contaminated near/north of the Ohio River. At least moderate buoyancy is forecast to develop across the unperturbed and weakly capped warm sector by early afternoon. It should be noted that multiple sub-regional areas, particularly across central/eastern portions of Kentucky and Tennessee, could receive multiple repeat-rounds of severe storms on Tuesday. Thunderstorm development will likely occur rather early in the afternoon as inhibition will be quickly eroded and dynamic forcing for ascent overspreads the warm sector. Very favorable supercell wind profiles will exist across most of the region via the mid-level jet and a diurnally sustained 30+ kt low-level jet. Initial supercells will pose a threat for all severe weather hazards including the potential for strong tornadoes, but a mixed convective mode should evolve as upscale growth occurs into multiple clusters. Relatively widespread damaging winds, along with a continued mixed-mode tornado potential, may occur by late afternoon and evening as storms spread east-southeastward toward the Appalachians vicinity. ...Carolinas and far southern Virginia... Weak height falls will begin to influence the region by late in the day with a warm front beginning to shift northward across the region. At least a conditional or isolated potential for severe storms including supercells will exist near the warm front and within the immediately adjacent warm sector. ..Guyer.. 05/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH AND TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely across portions of the Mid-South, Tennessee Valley, and lower Ohio River Valley on Tuesday, including damaging winds and tornadoes, a few of which could be strong. ...Mid-South and Tennessee/Lower Ohio Valleys... Residual thunderstorms and associated cloud cover are expected to be ongoing across the Mid-South to lower Ohio Valley Tuesday morning, with the early day extensiveness of these storms, and related outflow/differential heating, to be key factors, and points of uncertainty, regarding later-day severe potential. This will especially be the case with northward extent toward the Ohio River and northern parts of the Cumberland Plateau. On the south/southwest edge of this early day activity, relatively rapid air mass recovery and destabilization can be expected, owing to sustained low-level moisture transport from the southwest in tandem with cloud breaks and an advancing mid-level dry slot. This will be as an upper low shifts northeastward over the middle Missouri Valley and Upper Midwest, with a cyclonically curved mid/upper-level jet streak overspreading the warm sector, which could be convectively contaminated near/north of the Ohio River. At least moderate buoyancy is forecast to develop across the unperturbed and weakly capped warm sector by early afternoon. It should be noted that multiple sub-regional areas, particularly across central/eastern portions of Kentucky and Tennessee, could receive multiple repeat-rounds of severe storms on Tuesday. Thunderstorm development will likely occur rather early in the afternoon as inhibition will be quickly eroded and dynamic forcing for ascent overspreads the warm sector. Very favorable supercell wind profiles will exist across most of the region via the mid-level jet and a diurnally sustained 30+ kt low-level jet. Initial supercells will pose a threat for all severe weather hazards including the potential for strong tornadoes, but a mixed convective mode should evolve as upscale growth occurs into multiple clusters. Relatively widespread damaging winds, along with a continued mixed-mode tornado potential, may occur by late afternoon and evening as storms spread east-southeastward toward the Appalachians vicinity. ...Carolinas and far southern Virginia... Weak height falls will begin to influence the region by late in the day with a warm front beginning to shift northward across the region. At least a conditional or isolated potential for severe storms including supercells will exist near the warm front and within the immediately adjacent warm sector. ..Guyer.. 05/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH AND TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely across portions of the Mid-South, Tennessee Valley, and lower Ohio River Valley on Tuesday, including damaging winds and tornadoes, a few of which could be strong. ...Mid-South and Tennessee/Lower Ohio Valleys... Residual thunderstorms and associated cloud cover are expected to be ongoing across the Mid-South to lower Ohio Valley Tuesday morning, with the early day extensiveness of these storms, and related outflow/differential heating, to be key factors, and points of uncertainty, regarding later-day severe potential. This will especially be the case with northward extent toward the Ohio River and northern parts of the Cumberland Plateau. On the south/southwest edge of this early day activity, relatively rapid air mass recovery and destabilization can be expected, owing to sustained low-level moisture transport from the southwest in tandem with cloud breaks and an advancing mid-level dry slot. This will be as an upper low shifts northeastward over the middle Missouri Valley and Upper Midwest, with a cyclonically curved mid/upper-level jet streak overspreading the warm sector, which could be convectively contaminated near/north of the Ohio River. At least moderate buoyancy is forecast to develop across the unperturbed and weakly capped warm sector by early afternoon. It should be noted that multiple sub-regional areas, particularly across central/eastern portions of Kentucky and Tennessee, could receive multiple repeat-rounds of severe storms on Tuesday. Thunderstorm development will likely occur rather early in the afternoon as inhibition will be quickly eroded and dynamic forcing for ascent overspreads the warm sector. Very favorable supercell wind profiles will exist across most of the region via the mid-level jet and a diurnally sustained 30+ kt low-level jet. Initial supercells will pose a threat for all severe weather hazards including the potential for strong tornadoes, but a mixed convective mode should evolve as upscale growth occurs into multiple clusters. Relatively widespread damaging winds, along with a continued mixed-mode tornado potential, may occur by late afternoon and evening as storms spread east-southeastward toward the Appalachians vicinity. ...Carolinas and far southern Virginia... Weak height falls will begin to influence the region by late in the day with a warm front beginning to shift northward across the region. At least a conditional or isolated potential for severe storms including supercells will exist near the warm front and within the immediately adjacent warm sector. ..Guyer.. 05/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH AND TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely across portions of the Mid-South, Tennessee Valley, and lower Ohio River Valley on Tuesday, including damaging winds and tornadoes, a few of which could be strong. ...Mid-South and Tennessee/Lower Ohio Valleys... Residual thunderstorms and associated cloud cover are expected to be ongoing across the Mid-South to lower Ohio Valley Tuesday morning, with the early day extensiveness of these storms, and related outflow/differential heating, to be key factors, and points of uncertainty, regarding later-day severe potential. This will especially be the case with northward extent toward the Ohio River and northern parts of the Cumberland Plateau. On the south/southwest edge of this early day activity, relatively rapid air mass recovery and destabilization can be expected, owing to sustained low-level moisture transport from the southwest in tandem with cloud breaks and an advancing mid-level dry slot. This will be as an upper low shifts northeastward over the middle Missouri Valley and Upper Midwest, with a cyclonically curved mid/upper-level jet streak overspreading the warm sector, which could be convectively contaminated near/north of the Ohio River. At least moderate buoyancy is forecast to develop across the unperturbed and weakly capped warm sector by early afternoon. It should be noted that multiple sub-regional areas, particularly across central/eastern portions of Kentucky and Tennessee, could receive multiple repeat-rounds of severe storms on Tuesday. Thunderstorm development will likely occur rather early in the afternoon as inhibition will be quickly eroded and dynamic forcing for ascent overspreads the warm sector. Very favorable supercell wind profiles will exist across most of the region via the mid-level jet and a diurnally sustained 30+ kt low-level jet. Initial supercells will pose a threat for all severe weather hazards including the potential for strong tornadoes, but a mixed convective mode should evolve as upscale growth occurs into multiple clusters. Relatively widespread damaging winds, along with a continued mixed-mode tornado potential, may occur by late afternoon and evening as storms spread east-southeastward toward the Appalachians vicinity. ...Carolinas and far southern Virginia... Weak height falls will begin to influence the region by late in the day with a warm front beginning to shift northward across the region. At least a conditional or isolated potential for severe storms including supercells will exist near the warm front and within the immediately adjacent warm sector. ..Guyer.. 05/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH AND TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely across portions of the Mid-South, Tennessee Valley, and lower Ohio River Valley on Tuesday, including damaging winds and tornadoes, a few of which could be strong. ...Mid-South and Tennessee/Lower Ohio Valleys... Residual thunderstorms and associated cloud cover are expected to be ongoing across the Mid-South to lower Ohio Valley Tuesday morning, with the early day extensiveness of these storms, and related outflow/differential heating, to be key factors, and points of uncertainty, regarding later-day severe potential. This will especially be the case with northward extent toward the Ohio River and northern parts of the Cumberland Plateau. On the south/southwest edge of this early day activity, relatively rapid air mass recovery and destabilization can be expected, owing to sustained low-level moisture transport from the southwest in tandem with cloud breaks and an advancing mid-level dry slot. This will be as an upper low shifts northeastward over the middle Missouri Valley and Upper Midwest, with a cyclonically curved mid/upper-level jet streak overspreading the warm sector, which could be convectively contaminated near/north of the Ohio River. At least moderate buoyancy is forecast to develop across the unperturbed and weakly capped warm sector by early afternoon. It should be noted that multiple sub-regional areas, particularly across central/eastern portions of Kentucky and Tennessee, could receive multiple repeat-rounds of severe storms on Tuesday. Thunderstorm development will likely occur rather early in the afternoon as inhibition will be quickly eroded and dynamic forcing for ascent overspreads the warm sector. Very favorable supercell wind profiles will exist across most of the region via the mid-level jet and a diurnally sustained 30+ kt low-level jet. Initial supercells will pose a threat for all severe weather hazards including the potential for strong tornadoes, but a mixed convective mode should evolve as upscale growth occurs into multiple clusters. Relatively widespread damaging winds, along with a continued mixed-mode tornado potential, may occur by late afternoon and evening as storms spread east-southeastward toward the Appalachians vicinity. ...Carolinas and far southern Virginia... Weak height falls will begin to influence the region by late in the day with a warm front beginning to shift northward across the region. At least a conditional or isolated potential for severe storms including supercells will exist near the warm front and within the immediately adjacent warm sector. ..Guyer.. 05/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH AND TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely across portions of the Mid-South, Tennessee Valley, and lower Ohio River Valley on Tuesday, including damaging winds and tornadoes, a few of which could be strong. ...Mid-South and Tennessee/Lower Ohio Valleys... Residual thunderstorms and associated cloud cover are expected to be ongoing across the Mid-South to lower Ohio Valley Tuesday morning, with the early day extensiveness of these storms, and related outflow/differential heating, to be key factors, and points of uncertainty, regarding later-day severe potential. This will especially be the case with northward extent toward the Ohio River and northern parts of the Cumberland Plateau. On the south/southwest edge of this early day activity, relatively rapid air mass recovery and destabilization can be expected, owing to sustained low-level moisture transport from the southwest in tandem with cloud breaks and an advancing mid-level dry slot. This will be as an upper low shifts northeastward over the middle Missouri Valley and Upper Midwest, with a cyclonically curved mid/upper-level jet streak overspreading the warm sector, which could be convectively contaminated near/north of the Ohio River. At least moderate buoyancy is forecast to develop across the unperturbed and weakly capped warm sector by early afternoon. It should be noted that multiple sub-regional areas, particularly across central/eastern portions of Kentucky and Tennessee, could receive multiple repeat-rounds of severe storms on Tuesday. Thunderstorm development will likely occur rather early in the afternoon as inhibition will be quickly eroded and dynamic forcing for ascent overspreads the warm sector. Very favorable supercell wind profiles will exist across most of the region via the mid-level jet and a diurnally sustained 30+ kt low-level jet. Initial supercells will pose a threat for all severe weather hazards including the potential for strong tornadoes, but a mixed convective mode should evolve as upscale growth occurs into multiple clusters. Relatively widespread damaging winds, along with a continued mixed-mode tornado potential, may occur by late afternoon and evening as storms spread east-southeastward toward the Appalachians vicinity. ...Carolinas and far southern Virginia... Weak height falls will begin to influence the region by late in the day with a warm front beginning to shift northward across the region. At least a conditional or isolated potential for severe storms including supercells will exist near the warm front and within the immediately adjacent warm sector. ..Guyer.. 05/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH AND TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely across portions of the Mid-South, Tennessee Valley, and lower Ohio River Valley on Tuesday, including damaging winds and tornadoes, a few of which could be strong. ...Mid-South and Tennessee/Lower Ohio Valleys... Residual thunderstorms and associated cloud cover are expected to be ongoing across the Mid-South to lower Ohio Valley Tuesday morning, with the early day extensiveness of these storms, and related outflow/differential heating, to be key factors, and points of uncertainty, regarding later-day severe potential. This will especially be the case with northward extent toward the Ohio River and northern parts of the Cumberland Plateau. On the south/southwest edge of this early day activity, relatively rapid air mass recovery and destabilization can be expected, owing to sustained low-level moisture transport from the southwest in tandem with cloud breaks and an advancing mid-level dry slot. This will be as an upper low shifts northeastward over the middle Missouri Valley and Upper Midwest, with a cyclonically curved mid/upper-level jet streak overspreading the warm sector, which could be convectively contaminated near/north of the Ohio River. At least moderate buoyancy is forecast to develop across the unperturbed and weakly capped warm sector by early afternoon. It should be noted that multiple sub-regional areas, particularly across central/eastern portions of Kentucky and Tennessee, could receive multiple repeat-rounds of severe storms on Tuesday. Thunderstorm development will likely occur rather early in the afternoon as inhibition will be quickly eroded and dynamic forcing for ascent overspreads the warm sector. Very favorable supercell wind profiles will exist across most of the region via the mid-level jet and a diurnally sustained 30+ kt low-level jet. Initial supercells will pose a threat for all severe weather hazards including the potential for strong tornadoes, but a mixed convective mode should evolve as upscale growth occurs into multiple clusters. Relatively widespread damaging winds, along with a continued mixed-mode tornado potential, may occur by late afternoon and evening as storms spread east-southeastward toward the Appalachians vicinity. ...Carolinas and far southern Virginia... Weak height falls will begin to influence the region by late in the day with a warm front beginning to shift northward across the region. At least a conditional or isolated potential for severe storms including supercells will exist near the warm front and within the immediately adjacent warm sector. ..Guyer.. 05/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH AND TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely across portions of the Mid-South, Tennessee Valley, and lower Ohio River Valley on Tuesday, including damaging winds and tornadoes, a few of which could be strong. ...Mid-South and Tennessee/Lower Ohio Valleys... Residual thunderstorms and associated cloud cover are expected to be ongoing across the Mid-South to lower Ohio Valley Tuesday morning, with the early day extensiveness of these storms, and related outflow/differential heating, to be key factors, and points of uncertainty, regarding later-day severe potential. This will especially be the case with northward extent toward the Ohio River and northern parts of the Cumberland Plateau. On the south/southwest edge of this early day activity, relatively rapid air mass recovery and destabilization can be expected, owing to sustained low-level moisture transport from the southwest in tandem with cloud breaks and an advancing mid-level dry slot. This will be as an upper low shifts northeastward over the middle Missouri Valley and Upper Midwest, with a cyclonically curved mid/upper-level jet streak overspreading the warm sector, which could be convectively contaminated near/north of the Ohio River. At least moderate buoyancy is forecast to develop across the unperturbed and weakly capped warm sector by early afternoon. It should be noted that multiple sub-regional areas, particularly across central/eastern portions of Kentucky and Tennessee, could receive multiple repeat-rounds of severe storms on Tuesday. Thunderstorm development will likely occur rather early in the afternoon as inhibition will be quickly eroded and dynamic forcing for ascent overspreads the warm sector. Very favorable supercell wind profiles will exist across most of the region via the mid-level jet and a diurnally sustained 30+ kt low-level jet. Initial supercells will pose a threat for all severe weather hazards including the potential for strong tornadoes, but a mixed convective mode should evolve as upscale growth occurs into multiple clusters. Relatively widespread damaging winds, along with a continued mixed-mode tornado potential, may occur by late afternoon and evening as storms spread east-southeastward toward the Appalachians vicinity. ...Carolinas and far southern Virginia... Weak height falls will begin to influence the region by late in the day with a warm front beginning to shift northward across the region. At least a conditional or isolated potential for severe storms including supercells will exist near the warm front and within the immediately adjacent warm sector. ..Guyer.. 05/19/2025 Read more

595
ABPZ20 KNHC 191727
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon May 19 2025

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Berg

MD 0874 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0874 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Areas affected...parts of central and northeast Texas...southeastern Oklahoma and adjacent southwestern Arkansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 191528Z - 191730Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...An increase in strong thunderstorm development appears possible through Noon to 2 PM CDT. This may include evolving supercells, accompanied by a risk for tornadoes, in addition to large hail. Trends are being monitored for the possibility of a severe weather watch. DISCUSSION...A few cells have begun intensifying within a broader area of convective development now spreading northeast of the I-35 corridor of central Texas. This appears to have been initially supported by large-scale forcing for ascent associated with warm advection based near the 700 mb level, downstream of a mid/upper perturbation within the belt of westerlies emanating from the lower-latitude eastern Pacific. However, the stronger convective cores have probably begun to acquire updraft inflow emanating from the seasonably moist boundary-layer. The downstream downstream environment remains capped by an elevated mixed layer based near/above 850 mb, but is warming with insolation. Coupled with the forcing for ascent, erosion of the inhibition may allow for a substantive further increase in stronger thunderstorm development during the next several hours. This may include a few intensifying supercells. In the presence of at least modestly enlarging, clockwise curved low-level hodographs, this activity may become accompanied by a risk for tornadoes, in addition to large hail. ..Kerr/Hart.. 05/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 33739702 35249571 34519382 32819447 31729549 31629667 33069712 33739702 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

WW 0292 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0292 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0292 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0292 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1145 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2025 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the central and southern Plains and the Ozarks later today and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Much of Missouri Central and Eastern Oklahoma Northwest Arkansas Eastern Kansas North-Central Texas Far Southeast Nebraska * HAZARDS... Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force Several tornadoes, a few intense Widespread large hail, some baseball size * SUMMARY... Significant severe weather is likely from the central/southern Plains into the the Ozarks today into tonight. All severe weather hazards are expected, to include tornadoes (some potentially strong to intense), very large hail, and severe winds. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms over the next several hours. If a severe thunderstorm warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1145 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2025 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the central and southern Plains and the Ozarks later today and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Much of Missouri Central and Eastern Oklahoma Northwest Arkansas Eastern Kansas North-Central Texas Far Southeast Nebraska * HAZARDS... Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force Several tornadoes, a few intense Widespread large hail, some baseball size * SUMMARY... Significant severe weather is likely from the central/southern Plains into the the Ozarks today into tonight. All severe weather hazards are expected, to include tornadoes (some potentially strong to intense), very large hail, and severe winds. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms over the next several hours. If a severe thunderstorm warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1145 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2025 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the central and southern Plains and the Ozarks later today and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Much of Missouri Central and Eastern Oklahoma Northwest Arkansas Eastern Kansas North-Central Texas Far Southeast Nebraska * HAZARDS... Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force Several tornadoes, a few intense Widespread large hail, some baseball size * SUMMARY... Significant severe weather is likely from the central/southern Plains into the the Ozarks today into tonight. All severe weather hazards are expected, to include tornadoes (some potentially strong to intense), very large hail, and severe winds. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms over the next several hours. If a severe thunderstorm warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1145 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2025 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the central and southern Plains and the Ozarks later today and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Much of Missouri Central and Eastern Oklahoma Northwest Arkansas Eastern Kansas North-Central Texas Far Southeast Nebraska * HAZARDS... Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force Several tornadoes, a few intense Widespread large hail, some baseball size * SUMMARY... Significant severe weather is likely from the central/southern Plains into the the Ozarks today into tonight. All severe weather hazards are expected, to include tornadoes (some potentially strong to intense), very large hail, and severe winds. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms over the next several hours. If a severe thunderstorm warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Read more