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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1054 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... Mostly clear to clear skies in place over the Desert Southwest into the southern High Plains, are fostering robust boundary layer heating, with 15-20 percent RH already common over most locales. Surface observations also show widespread 10-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds coinciding the aforementioned dry air across most of the post-dryline environment. With continued surface heating, sustained wind speeds should easily reach 20-30 mph, as indicated by the latest guidance consensus. Isolated high-based thunderstorms have recently developed along the northern Arizona/New Mexico border area. Approaching upper support suggests that isolated lightning flashes should continue into the afternoon, atop fuels receptive to wildfire spread. Furthermore, the ambient dry/windy conditions may exacerbate wildfire-spread potential with any lightning-induced ignitions. Elevated dry and breezy conditions are still expected across portions of the central California Valley area later this afternoon. ..Squitieri.. 05/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of an amplified large-scale trough over the West, a 70-80-kt midlevel speed maximum will overspread parts of the Southwest into the southern High Plains. As a result, dry/downslope flow will overspread much of central/southern NM into West TX -- where Critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Upstream of the large-scale trough, enhanced northwesterly flow will persist across central CA, favoring elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Central/Southern New Mexico into West Texas... The dry/downslope flow and ample diurnal heating will contribute to deep boundary-layer mixing into the belt of strong deep-layer westerly flow beneath the midlevel speed maximum. At the same time, the pressure gradient will tighten along the peripheries of a deepening synoptic-scale surface low over the southern Plains. These factors will yield an expansive area of 20-30 mph sustained westerly surface winds and around 15 percent RH extending from central/southern NM into West TX during the afternoon. Given dry/ receptive fuels, critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Central California... Boundary-layer heating/mixing amid the enhanced northerly flow aloft will favor dry/breezy conditions across parts of the southern Sacramento Valley into the San Joaquin Valley during the afternoon -- where elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1054 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... Mostly clear to clear skies in place over the Desert Southwest into the southern High Plains, are fostering robust boundary layer heating, with 15-20 percent RH already common over most locales. Surface observations also show widespread 10-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds coinciding the aforementioned dry air across most of the post-dryline environment. With continued surface heating, sustained wind speeds should easily reach 20-30 mph, as indicated by the latest guidance consensus. Isolated high-based thunderstorms have recently developed along the northern Arizona/New Mexico border area. Approaching upper support suggests that isolated lightning flashes should continue into the afternoon, atop fuels receptive to wildfire spread. Furthermore, the ambient dry/windy conditions may exacerbate wildfire-spread potential with any lightning-induced ignitions. Elevated dry and breezy conditions are still expected across portions of the central California Valley area later this afternoon. ..Squitieri.. 05/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of an amplified large-scale trough over the West, a 70-80-kt midlevel speed maximum will overspread parts of the Southwest into the southern High Plains. As a result, dry/downslope flow will overspread much of central/southern NM into West TX -- where Critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Upstream of the large-scale trough, enhanced northwesterly flow will persist across central CA, favoring elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Central/Southern New Mexico into West Texas... The dry/downslope flow and ample diurnal heating will contribute to deep boundary-layer mixing into the belt of strong deep-layer westerly flow beneath the midlevel speed maximum. At the same time, the pressure gradient will tighten along the peripheries of a deepening synoptic-scale surface low over the southern Plains. These factors will yield an expansive area of 20-30 mph sustained westerly surface winds and around 15 percent RH extending from central/southern NM into West TX during the afternoon. Given dry/ receptive fuels, critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Central California... Boundary-layer heating/mixing amid the enhanced northerly flow aloft will favor dry/breezy conditions across parts of the southern Sacramento Valley into the San Joaquin Valley during the afternoon -- where elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

Kyle has stage 3 water restrictions in effect, which limit outdoor watering to once every other week and prohibit new landscape installations and some outdoor water uses. The City of Kyle has embarked upon a new incentive program to help the public conserve water and lower their utility bills. The "Native Landscaping Pilot Rebate Program" promotes the replacement of traditional turf lawns with native, drought-resistant plants. Kyle water customers can receive a $1 rebate for every square foot of irrigated turf they replace with approved native landscaping, up to 250 square feet. The maximum rebate per household is $250. KVUE (Austin, Texas), May 16, 2025

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon May 19 13:55:02 UTC 2025.

Cape Coral residents received letters about new water restrictions due to critically low aquifer levels, requiring them to connect to the city's irrigation system within 180 days. Gulf Coast News Now (Fort Myers, Fla.),May 19, 2025

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 191300Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FAR NORTH TEXAS...MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA...SOUTHEAST KANSAS...AND THE OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Significant severe weather is likely from the central/southern Plains into the the Ozarks today into tonight. All severe weather hazards are expected, to include tornadoes (some potentially strong to intense), very large hail, and severe winds. ... Synopsis ... A large, amplified trough over the Rockies will shift slowly eastward into the Plains today. Embedded within this longwave trough, a complex evolution is expected. Downstream of the trough, a negatively tilted shortwave trough will deepen and close off across the northern Plains. Meanwhile, upstream, a closed low currently over Idaho will dig southeastward, open up, and eject into the central Plains. As this evolution occurs, strong midlevel flow (in excess of 50 knots) will remain across much of the central and southern Plains through the forecast period. By late in the afternoon, midlevel flow will strengthen to perhaps 70 knots in response to the ejecting low into the central Plains. At the surface, the main synoptic low will be somewhat diffuse/elongated over northwest Kansas into southwest Nebraska this morning. Extending southward from this low, a dryline will stretch through western Kansas into the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles, continuing into west Texas. A warm front will extend eastward near the Kansas-Nebraska border before curving southeastward into Missouri into the southern Appalachians. The surface low is expected to gradually fill today as it slowly moves east/northeast into south-central Nebraska, Despite this, rich Gulf moisture will be maintained across the central and southern Plains. Dewpoint temperatures at or above 70F will advect northward from Texas through Oklahoma perhaps to as far north as northeast Kansas. During the afternoon, strong diurnal heating along the dryline may result in a sub-synoptic low developing across northwest Oklahoma. This low will slowly progress east along the Oklahoma-Kansas border during the afternoon, weakening with time. ... Southern and Central Plains into the Ozarks ... A strongly sheared atmosphere will already be in place at the start of the forecast period. As diurnal heating commences and 70F dewpoints advect northward, the atmosphere across much of the central and southern Plains will become strongly to extremely unstable as well, with surface-based CAPE values between 3000-5000 J/kg across the region. Multiple rounds of storms are expected across the region today. One such initiating mechanism looks to be a subtle shortwave trough embedded in the larger scale flow currently across eastern New Mexico. This wave should initiate thunderstorms across eastern Oklahoma northward into eastern Kansas by midday. It is unclear if these storms will initially be elevated, but as they move east and the atmosphere destabilizes further ahead of the line, a transition to more surface-based convection should occur. At the same time, the low-level jet is forecast to strengthen/reorganize across eastern Oklahoma/western Arkansas into western Missouri. This will yield ample low-level curvature to the hodograph. Thus, given the strongly sheared environment in place, supercells capable of producing all severe hazards, including strong tornadoes, will be possible with this first round of storms. By mid-to-late afternoon, 30-60 meter mid-level height falls should overspread the dryline as it mixes east into central Kansas southward into western north Texas. Rapid thunderstorm development is expected along the dryline given the forecast extreme instability. These thunderstorms should develop west of the better low-level jet/flow, where the low-level flow is expected to be a little more veered than across eastern Kansas/Oklahoma. This veered low-level flow still will result in a strongly sheered environment, but with more straight hodographs and less low-level curvature. The result should be another round of supercells, albeit with a tendency to split. These supercells will be capable of producing very large hail and tornadoes. The number of supercells across the dryline combined with a propensity to split, may result in destructive interference and result in a more episodic hail and tornado threat. In addition to the hail and tornado threat, the number of expected thunderstorms in the presence of a very moist and unstable atmosphere with steep lapse rates may result in strong downdraft winds. The most likely region for this will be across portions of northeast Oklahoma, northwest Arkansas, southeast Kansas, and southwest Missouri. A 45% wind area was included in this outlook. ... Southern Illinois into Southern Appalachians ... Along the northern periphery of shortwave ridging over the Southeast, a midlevel jet streak will cross the southern Appalachians during the afternoon. Here, an influx of steep midlevel lapse rates atop rich boundary-layer moisture will yield strong surface-based instability along/south of a warm front draped across the region. Scattered thunderstorms will spread east-southeastward along/south of the front from TN into the southern Appalachians, where the favorable buoyancy and around 40-50 kt of effective shear will promote organization into clusters and a couple splitting supercell structures. Damaging winds and large hail will be possible with the strongest storms. Overnight, additional thunderstorms may develop across southern Illinois and western Kentucky in association with warm-air advection ahead of the main area of thunderstorms to the west. These thunderstorms will also pose the potential for small hail and isolated wind damage. ..Marsh/Smith.. 05/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 191300Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FAR NORTH TEXAS...MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA...SOUTHEAST KANSAS...AND THE OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Significant severe weather is likely from the central/southern Plains into the the Ozarks today into tonight. All severe weather hazards are expected, to include tornadoes (some potentially strong to intense), very large hail, and severe winds. ... Synopsis ... A large, amplified trough over the Rockies will shift slowly eastward into the Plains today. Embedded within this longwave trough, a complex evolution is expected. Downstream of the trough, a negatively tilted shortwave trough will deepen and close off across the northern Plains. Meanwhile, upstream, a closed low currently over Idaho will dig southeastward, open up, and eject into the central Plains. As this evolution occurs, strong midlevel flow (in excess of 50 knots) will remain across much of the central and southern Plains through the forecast period. By late in the afternoon, midlevel flow will strengthen to perhaps 70 knots in response to the ejecting low into the central Plains. At the surface, the main synoptic low will be somewhat diffuse/elongated over northwest Kansas into southwest Nebraska this morning. Extending southward from this low, a dryline will stretch through western Kansas into the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles, continuing into west Texas. A warm front will extend eastward near the Kansas-Nebraska border before curving southeastward into Missouri into the southern Appalachians. The surface low is expected to gradually fill today as it slowly moves east/northeast into south-central Nebraska, Despite this, rich Gulf moisture will be maintained across the central and southern Plains. Dewpoint temperatures at or above 70F will advect northward from Texas through Oklahoma perhaps to as far north as northeast Kansas. During the afternoon, strong diurnal heating along the dryline may result in a sub-synoptic low developing across northwest Oklahoma. This low will slowly progress east along the Oklahoma-Kansas border during the afternoon, weakening with time. ... Southern and Central Plains into the Ozarks ... A strongly sheared atmosphere will already be in place at the start of the forecast period. As diurnal heating commences and 70F dewpoints advect northward, the atmosphere across much of the central and southern Plains will become strongly to extremely unstable as well, with surface-based CAPE values between 3000-5000 J/kg across the region. Multiple rounds of storms are expected across the region today. One such initiating mechanism looks to be a subtle shortwave trough embedded in the larger scale flow currently across eastern New Mexico. This wave should initiate thunderstorms across eastern Oklahoma northward into eastern Kansas by midday. It is unclear if these storms will initially be elevated, but as they move east and the atmosphere destabilizes further ahead of the line, a transition to more surface-based convection should occur. At the same time, the low-level jet is forecast to strengthen/reorganize across eastern Oklahoma/western Arkansas into western Missouri. This will yield ample low-level curvature to the hodograph. Thus, given the strongly sheared environment in place, supercells capable of producing all severe hazards, including strong tornadoes, will be possible with this first round of storms. By mid-to-late afternoon, 30-60 meter mid-level height falls should overspread the dryline as it mixes east into central Kansas southward into western north Texas. Rapid thunderstorm development is expected along the dryline given the forecast extreme instability. These thunderstorms should develop west of the better low-level jet/flow, where the low-level flow is expected to be a little more veered than across eastern Kansas/Oklahoma. This veered low-level flow still will result in a strongly sheered environment, but with more straight hodographs and less low-level curvature. The result should be another round of supercells, albeit with a tendency to split. These supercells will be capable of producing very large hail and tornadoes. The number of supercells across the dryline combined with a propensity to split, may result in destructive interference and result in a more episodic hail and tornado threat. In addition to the hail and tornado threat, the number of expected thunderstorms in the presence of a very moist and unstable atmosphere with steep lapse rates may result in strong downdraft winds. The most likely region for this will be across portions of northeast Oklahoma, northwest Arkansas, southeast Kansas, and southwest Missouri. A 45% wind area was included in this outlook. ... Southern Illinois into Southern Appalachians ... Along the northern periphery of shortwave ridging over the Southeast, a midlevel jet streak will cross the southern Appalachians during the afternoon. Here, an influx of steep midlevel lapse rates atop rich boundary-layer moisture will yield strong surface-based instability along/south of a warm front draped across the region. Scattered thunderstorms will spread east-southeastward along/south of the front from TN into the southern Appalachians, where the favorable buoyancy and around 40-50 kt of effective shear will promote organization into clusters and a couple splitting supercell structures. Damaging winds and large hail will be possible with the strongest storms. Overnight, additional thunderstorms may develop across southern Illinois and western Kentucky in association with warm-air advection ahead of the main area of thunderstorms to the west. These thunderstorms will also pose the potential for small hail and isolated wind damage. ..Marsh/Smith.. 05/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 191300Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FAR NORTH TEXAS...MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA...SOUTHEAST KANSAS...AND THE OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Significant severe weather is likely from the central/southern Plains into the the Ozarks today into tonight. All severe weather hazards are expected, to include tornadoes (some potentially strong to intense), very large hail, and severe winds. ... Synopsis ... A large, amplified trough over the Rockies will shift slowly eastward into the Plains today. Embedded within this longwave trough, a complex evolution is expected. Downstream of the trough, a negatively tilted shortwave trough will deepen and close off across the northern Plains. Meanwhile, upstream, a closed low currently over Idaho will dig southeastward, open up, and eject into the central Plains. As this evolution occurs, strong midlevel flow (in excess of 50 knots) will remain across much of the central and southern Plains through the forecast period. By late in the afternoon, midlevel flow will strengthen to perhaps 70 knots in response to the ejecting low into the central Plains. At the surface, the main synoptic low will be somewhat diffuse/elongated over northwest Kansas into southwest Nebraska this morning. Extending southward from this low, a dryline will stretch through western Kansas into the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles, continuing into west Texas. A warm front will extend eastward near the Kansas-Nebraska border before curving southeastward into Missouri into the southern Appalachians. The surface low is expected to gradually fill today as it slowly moves east/northeast into south-central Nebraska, Despite this, rich Gulf moisture will be maintained across the central and southern Plains. Dewpoint temperatures at or above 70F will advect northward from Texas through Oklahoma perhaps to as far north as northeast Kansas. During the afternoon, strong diurnal heating along the dryline may result in a sub-synoptic low developing across northwest Oklahoma. This low will slowly progress east along the Oklahoma-Kansas border during the afternoon, weakening with time. ... Southern and Central Plains into the Ozarks ... A strongly sheared atmosphere will already be in place at the start of the forecast period. As diurnal heating commences and 70F dewpoints advect northward, the atmosphere across much of the central and southern Plains will become strongly to extremely unstable as well, with surface-based CAPE values between 3000-5000 J/kg across the region. Multiple rounds of storms are expected across the region today. One such initiating mechanism looks to be a subtle shortwave trough embedded in the larger scale flow currently across eastern New Mexico. This wave should initiate thunderstorms across eastern Oklahoma northward into eastern Kansas by midday. It is unclear if these storms will initially be elevated, but as they move east and the atmosphere destabilizes further ahead of the line, a transition to more surface-based convection should occur. At the same time, the low-level jet is forecast to strengthen/reorganize across eastern Oklahoma/western Arkansas into western Missouri. This will yield ample low-level curvature to the hodograph. Thus, given the strongly sheared environment in place, supercells capable of producing all severe hazards, including strong tornadoes, will be possible with this first round of storms. By mid-to-late afternoon, 30-60 meter mid-level height falls should overspread the dryline as it mixes east into central Kansas southward into western north Texas. Rapid thunderstorm development is expected along the dryline given the forecast extreme instability. These thunderstorms should develop west of the better low-level jet/flow, where the low-level flow is expected to be a little more veered than across eastern Kansas/Oklahoma. This veered low-level flow still will result in a strongly sheered environment, but with more straight hodographs and less low-level curvature. The result should be another round of supercells, albeit with a tendency to split. These supercells will be capable of producing very large hail and tornadoes. The number of supercells across the dryline combined with a propensity to split, may result in destructive interference and result in a more episodic hail and tornado threat. In addition to the hail and tornado threat, the number of expected thunderstorms in the presence of a very moist and unstable atmosphere with steep lapse rates may result in strong downdraft winds. The most likely region for this will be across portions of northeast Oklahoma, northwest Arkansas, southeast Kansas, and southwest Missouri. A 45% wind area was included in this outlook. ... Southern Illinois into Southern Appalachians ... Along the northern periphery of shortwave ridging over the Southeast, a midlevel jet streak will cross the southern Appalachians during the afternoon. Here, an influx of steep midlevel lapse rates atop rich boundary-layer moisture will yield strong surface-based instability along/south of a warm front draped across the region. Scattered thunderstorms will spread east-southeastward along/south of the front from TN into the southern Appalachians, where the favorable buoyancy and around 40-50 kt of effective shear will promote organization into clusters and a couple splitting supercell structures. Damaging winds and large hail will be possible with the strongest storms. Overnight, additional thunderstorms may develop across southern Illinois and western Kentucky in association with warm-air advection ahead of the main area of thunderstorms to the west. These thunderstorms will also pose the potential for small hail and isolated wind damage. ..Marsh/Smith.. 05/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 191300Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FAR NORTH TEXAS...MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA...SOUTHEAST KANSAS...AND THE OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Significant severe weather is likely from the central/southern Plains into the the Ozarks today into tonight. All severe weather hazards are expected, to include tornadoes (some potentially strong to intense), very large hail, and severe winds. ... Synopsis ... A large, amplified trough over the Rockies will shift slowly eastward into the Plains today. Embedded within this longwave trough, a complex evolution is expected. Downstream of the trough, a negatively tilted shortwave trough will deepen and close off across the northern Plains. Meanwhile, upstream, a closed low currently over Idaho will dig southeastward, open up, and eject into the central Plains. As this evolution occurs, strong midlevel flow (in excess of 50 knots) will remain across much of the central and southern Plains through the forecast period. By late in the afternoon, midlevel flow will strengthen to perhaps 70 knots in response to the ejecting low into the central Plains. At the surface, the main synoptic low will be somewhat diffuse/elongated over northwest Kansas into southwest Nebraska this morning. Extending southward from this low, a dryline will stretch through western Kansas into the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles, continuing into west Texas. A warm front will extend eastward near the Kansas-Nebraska border before curving southeastward into Missouri into the southern Appalachians. The surface low is expected to gradually fill today as it slowly moves east/northeast into south-central Nebraska, Despite this, rich Gulf moisture will be maintained across the central and southern Plains. Dewpoint temperatures at or above 70F will advect northward from Texas through Oklahoma perhaps to as far north as northeast Kansas. During the afternoon, strong diurnal heating along the dryline may result in a sub-synoptic low developing across northwest Oklahoma. This low will slowly progress east along the Oklahoma-Kansas border during the afternoon, weakening with time. ... Southern and Central Plains into the Ozarks ... A strongly sheared atmosphere will already be in place at the start of the forecast period. As diurnal heating commences and 70F dewpoints advect northward, the atmosphere across much of the central and southern Plains will become strongly to extremely unstable as well, with surface-based CAPE values between 3000-5000 J/kg across the region. Multiple rounds of storms are expected across the region today. One such initiating mechanism looks to be a subtle shortwave trough embedded in the larger scale flow currently across eastern New Mexico. This wave should initiate thunderstorms across eastern Oklahoma northward into eastern Kansas by midday. It is unclear if these storms will initially be elevated, but as they move east and the atmosphere destabilizes further ahead of the line, a transition to more surface-based convection should occur. At the same time, the low-level jet is forecast to strengthen/reorganize across eastern Oklahoma/western Arkansas into western Missouri. This will yield ample low-level curvature to the hodograph. Thus, given the strongly sheared environment in place, supercells capable of producing all severe hazards, including strong tornadoes, will be possible with this first round of storms. By mid-to-late afternoon, 30-60 meter mid-level height falls should overspread the dryline as it mixes east into central Kansas southward into western north Texas. Rapid thunderstorm development is expected along the dryline given the forecast extreme instability. These thunderstorms should develop west of the better low-level jet/flow, where the low-level flow is expected to be a little more veered than across eastern Kansas/Oklahoma. This veered low-level flow still will result in a strongly sheered environment, but with more straight hodographs and less low-level curvature. The result should be another round of supercells, albeit with a tendency to split. These supercells will be capable of producing very large hail and tornadoes. The number of supercells across the dryline combined with a propensity to split, may result in destructive interference and result in a more episodic hail and tornado threat. In addition to the hail and tornado threat, the number of expected thunderstorms in the presence of a very moist and unstable atmosphere with steep lapse rates may result in strong downdraft winds. The most likely region for this will be across portions of northeast Oklahoma, northwest Arkansas, southeast Kansas, and southwest Missouri. A 45% wind area was included in this outlook. ... Southern Illinois into Southern Appalachians ... Along the northern periphery of shortwave ridging over the Southeast, a midlevel jet streak will cross the southern Appalachians during the afternoon. Here, an influx of steep midlevel lapse rates atop rich boundary-layer moisture will yield strong surface-based instability along/south of a warm front draped across the region. Scattered thunderstorms will spread east-southeastward along/south of the front from TN into the southern Appalachians, where the favorable buoyancy and around 40-50 kt of effective shear will promote organization into clusters and a couple splitting supercell structures. Damaging winds and large hail will be possible with the strongest storms. Overnight, additional thunderstorms may develop across southern Illinois and western Kentucky in association with warm-air advection ahead of the main area of thunderstorms to the west. These thunderstorms will also pose the potential for small hail and isolated wind damage. ..Marsh/Smith.. 05/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 191300Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FAR NORTH TEXAS...MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA...SOUTHEAST KANSAS...AND THE OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Significant severe weather is likely from the central/southern Plains into the the Ozarks today into tonight. All severe weather hazards are expected, to include tornadoes (some potentially strong to intense), very large hail, and severe winds. ... Synopsis ... A large, amplified trough over the Rockies will shift slowly eastward into the Plains today. Embedded within this longwave trough, a complex evolution is expected. Downstream of the trough, a negatively tilted shortwave trough will deepen and close off across the northern Plains. Meanwhile, upstream, a closed low currently over Idaho will dig southeastward, open up, and eject into the central Plains. As this evolution occurs, strong midlevel flow (in excess of 50 knots) will remain across much of the central and southern Plains through the forecast period. By late in the afternoon, midlevel flow will strengthen to perhaps 70 knots in response to the ejecting low into the central Plains. At the surface, the main synoptic low will be somewhat diffuse/elongated over northwest Kansas into southwest Nebraska this morning. Extending southward from this low, a dryline will stretch through western Kansas into the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles, continuing into west Texas. A warm front will extend eastward near the Kansas-Nebraska border before curving southeastward into Missouri into the southern Appalachians. The surface low is expected to gradually fill today as it slowly moves east/northeast into south-central Nebraska, Despite this, rich Gulf moisture will be maintained across the central and southern Plains. Dewpoint temperatures at or above 70F will advect northward from Texas through Oklahoma perhaps to as far north as northeast Kansas. During the afternoon, strong diurnal heating along the dryline may result in a sub-synoptic low developing across northwest Oklahoma. This low will slowly progress east along the Oklahoma-Kansas border during the afternoon, weakening with time. ... Southern and Central Plains into the Ozarks ... A strongly sheared atmosphere will already be in place at the start of the forecast period. As diurnal heating commences and 70F dewpoints advect northward, the atmosphere across much of the central and southern Plains will become strongly to extremely unstable as well, with surface-based CAPE values between 3000-5000 J/kg across the region. Multiple rounds of storms are expected across the region today. One such initiating mechanism looks to be a subtle shortwave trough embedded in the larger scale flow currently across eastern New Mexico. This wave should initiate thunderstorms across eastern Oklahoma northward into eastern Kansas by midday. It is unclear if these storms will initially be elevated, but as they move east and the atmosphere destabilizes further ahead of the line, a transition to more surface-based convection should occur. At the same time, the low-level jet is forecast to strengthen/reorganize across eastern Oklahoma/western Arkansas into western Missouri. This will yield ample low-level curvature to the hodograph. Thus, given the strongly sheared environment in place, supercells capable of producing all severe hazards, including strong tornadoes, will be possible with this first round of storms. By mid-to-late afternoon, 30-60 meter mid-level height falls should overspread the dryline as it mixes east into central Kansas southward into western north Texas. Rapid thunderstorm development is expected along the dryline given the forecast extreme instability. These thunderstorms should develop west of the better low-level jet/flow, where the low-level flow is expected to be a little more veered than across eastern Kansas/Oklahoma. This veered low-level flow still will result in a strongly sheered environment, but with more straight hodographs and less low-level curvature. The result should be another round of supercells, albeit with a tendency to split. These supercells will be capable of producing very large hail and tornadoes. The number of supercells across the dryline combined with a propensity to split, may result in destructive interference and result in a more episodic hail and tornado threat. In addition to the hail and tornado threat, the number of expected thunderstorms in the presence of a very moist and unstable atmosphere with steep lapse rates may result in strong downdraft winds. The most likely region for this will be across portions of northeast Oklahoma, northwest Arkansas, southeast Kansas, and southwest Missouri. A 45% wind area was included in this outlook. ... Southern Illinois into Southern Appalachians ... Along the northern periphery of shortwave ridging over the Southeast, a midlevel jet streak will cross the southern Appalachians during the afternoon. Here, an influx of steep midlevel lapse rates atop rich boundary-layer moisture will yield strong surface-based instability along/south of a warm front draped across the region. Scattered thunderstorms will spread east-southeastward along/south of the front from TN into the southern Appalachians, where the favorable buoyancy and around 40-50 kt of effective shear will promote organization into clusters and a couple splitting supercell structures. Damaging winds and large hail will be possible with the strongest storms. Overnight, additional thunderstorms may develop across southern Illinois and western Kentucky in association with warm-air advection ahead of the main area of thunderstorms to the west. These thunderstorms will also pose the potential for small hail and isolated wind damage. ..Marsh/Smith.. 05/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 191300Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FAR NORTH TEXAS...MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA...SOUTHEAST KANSAS...AND THE OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Significant severe weather is likely from the central/southern Plains into the the Ozarks today into tonight. All severe weather hazards are expected, to include tornadoes (some potentially strong to intense), very large hail, and severe winds. ... Synopsis ... A large, amplified trough over the Rockies will shift slowly eastward into the Plains today. Embedded within this longwave trough, a complex evolution is expected. Downstream of the trough, a negatively tilted shortwave trough will deepen and close off across the northern Plains. Meanwhile, upstream, a closed low currently over Idaho will dig southeastward, open up, and eject into the central Plains. As this evolution occurs, strong midlevel flow (in excess of 50 knots) will remain across much of the central and southern Plains through the forecast period. By late in the afternoon, midlevel flow will strengthen to perhaps 70 knots in response to the ejecting low into the central Plains. At the surface, the main synoptic low will be somewhat diffuse/elongated over northwest Kansas into southwest Nebraska this morning. Extending southward from this low, a dryline will stretch through western Kansas into the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles, continuing into west Texas. A warm front will extend eastward near the Kansas-Nebraska border before curving southeastward into Missouri into the southern Appalachians. The surface low is expected to gradually fill today as it slowly moves east/northeast into south-central Nebraska, Despite this, rich Gulf moisture will be maintained across the central and southern Plains. Dewpoint temperatures at or above 70F will advect northward from Texas through Oklahoma perhaps to as far north as northeast Kansas. During the afternoon, strong diurnal heating along the dryline may result in a sub-synoptic low developing across northwest Oklahoma. This low will slowly progress east along the Oklahoma-Kansas border during the afternoon, weakening with time. ... Southern and Central Plains into the Ozarks ... A strongly sheared atmosphere will already be in place at the start of the forecast period. As diurnal heating commences and 70F dewpoints advect northward, the atmosphere across much of the central and southern Plains will become strongly to extremely unstable as well, with surface-based CAPE values between 3000-5000 J/kg across the region. Multiple rounds of storms are expected across the region today. One such initiating mechanism looks to be a subtle shortwave trough embedded in the larger scale flow currently across eastern New Mexico. This wave should initiate thunderstorms across eastern Oklahoma northward into eastern Kansas by midday. It is unclear if these storms will initially be elevated, but as they move east and the atmosphere destabilizes further ahead of the line, a transition to more surface-based convection should occur. At the same time, the low-level jet is forecast to strengthen/reorganize across eastern Oklahoma/western Arkansas into western Missouri. This will yield ample low-level curvature to the hodograph. Thus, given the strongly sheared environment in place, supercells capable of producing all severe hazards, including strong tornadoes, will be possible with this first round of storms. By mid-to-late afternoon, 30-60 meter mid-level height falls should overspread the dryline as it mixes east into central Kansas southward into western north Texas. Rapid thunderstorm development is expected along the dryline given the forecast extreme instability. These thunderstorms should develop west of the better low-level jet/flow, where the low-level flow is expected to be a little more veered than across eastern Kansas/Oklahoma. This veered low-level flow still will result in a strongly sheered environment, but with more straight hodographs and less low-level curvature. The result should be another round of supercells, albeit with a tendency to split. These supercells will be capable of producing very large hail and tornadoes. The number of supercells across the dryline combined with a propensity to split, may result in destructive interference and result in a more episodic hail and tornado threat. In addition to the hail and tornado threat, the number of expected thunderstorms in the presence of a very moist and unstable atmosphere with steep lapse rates may result in strong downdraft winds. The most likely region for this will be across portions of northeast Oklahoma, northwest Arkansas, southeast Kansas, and southwest Missouri. A 45% wind area was included in this outlook. ... Southern Illinois into Southern Appalachians ... Along the northern periphery of shortwave ridging over the Southeast, a midlevel jet streak will cross the southern Appalachians during the afternoon. Here, an influx of steep midlevel lapse rates atop rich boundary-layer moisture will yield strong surface-based instability along/south of a warm front draped across the region. Scattered thunderstorms will spread east-southeastward along/south of the front from TN into the southern Appalachians, where the favorable buoyancy and around 40-50 kt of effective shear will promote organization into clusters and a couple splitting supercell structures. Damaging winds and large hail will be possible with the strongest storms. Overnight, additional thunderstorms may develop across southern Illinois and western Kentucky in association with warm-air advection ahead of the main area of thunderstorms to the west. These thunderstorms will also pose the potential for small hail and isolated wind damage. ..Marsh/Smith.. 05/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 191300Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FAR NORTH TEXAS...MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA...SOUTHEAST KANSAS...AND THE OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Significant severe weather is likely from the central/southern Plains into the the Ozarks today into tonight. All severe weather hazards are expected, to include tornadoes (some potentially strong to intense), very large hail, and severe winds. ... Synopsis ... A large, amplified trough over the Rockies will shift slowly eastward into the Plains today. Embedded within this longwave trough, a complex evolution is expected. Downstream of the trough, a negatively tilted shortwave trough will deepen and close off across the northern Plains. Meanwhile, upstream, a closed low currently over Idaho will dig southeastward, open up, and eject into the central Plains. As this evolution occurs, strong midlevel flow (in excess of 50 knots) will remain across much of the central and southern Plains through the forecast period. By late in the afternoon, midlevel flow will strengthen to perhaps 70 knots in response to the ejecting low into the central Plains. At the surface, the main synoptic low will be somewhat diffuse/elongated over northwest Kansas into southwest Nebraska this morning. Extending southward from this low, a dryline will stretch through western Kansas into the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles, continuing into west Texas. A warm front will extend eastward near the Kansas-Nebraska border before curving southeastward into Missouri into the southern Appalachians. The surface low is expected to gradually fill today as it slowly moves east/northeast into south-central Nebraska, Despite this, rich Gulf moisture will be maintained across the central and southern Plains. Dewpoint temperatures at or above 70F will advect northward from Texas through Oklahoma perhaps to as far north as northeast Kansas. During the afternoon, strong diurnal heating along the dryline may result in a sub-synoptic low developing across northwest Oklahoma. This low will slowly progress east along the Oklahoma-Kansas border during the afternoon, weakening with time. ... Southern and Central Plains into the Ozarks ... A strongly sheared atmosphere will already be in place at the start of the forecast period. As diurnal heating commences and 70F dewpoints advect northward, the atmosphere across much of the central and southern Plains will become strongly to extremely unstable as well, with surface-based CAPE values between 3000-5000 J/kg across the region. Multiple rounds of storms are expected across the region today. One such initiating mechanism looks to be a subtle shortwave trough embedded in the larger scale flow currently across eastern New Mexico. This wave should initiate thunderstorms across eastern Oklahoma northward into eastern Kansas by midday. It is unclear if these storms will initially be elevated, but as they move east and the atmosphere destabilizes further ahead of the line, a transition to more surface-based convection should occur. At the same time, the low-level jet is forecast to strengthen/reorganize across eastern Oklahoma/western Arkansas into western Missouri. This will yield ample low-level curvature to the hodograph. Thus, given the strongly sheared environment in place, supercells capable of producing all severe hazards, including strong tornadoes, will be possible with this first round of storms. By mid-to-late afternoon, 30-60 meter mid-level height falls should overspread the dryline as it mixes east into central Kansas southward into western north Texas. Rapid thunderstorm development is expected along the dryline given the forecast extreme instability. These thunderstorms should develop west of the better low-level jet/flow, where the low-level flow is expected to be a little more veered than across eastern Kansas/Oklahoma. This veered low-level flow still will result in a strongly sheered environment, but with more straight hodographs and less low-level curvature. The result should be another round of supercells, albeit with a tendency to split. These supercells will be capable of producing very large hail and tornadoes. The number of supercells across the dryline combined with a propensity to split, may result in destructive interference and result in a more episodic hail and tornado threat. In addition to the hail and tornado threat, the number of expected thunderstorms in the presence of a very moist and unstable atmosphere with steep lapse rates may result in strong downdraft winds. The most likely region for this will be across portions of northeast Oklahoma, northwest Arkansas, southeast Kansas, and southwest Missouri. A 45% wind area was included in this outlook. ... Southern Illinois into Southern Appalachians ... Along the northern periphery of shortwave ridging over the Southeast, a midlevel jet streak will cross the southern Appalachians during the afternoon. Here, an influx of steep midlevel lapse rates atop rich boundary-layer moisture will yield strong surface-based instability along/south of a warm front draped across the region. Scattered thunderstorms will spread east-southeastward along/south of the front from TN into the southern Appalachians, where the favorable buoyancy and around 40-50 kt of effective shear will promote organization into clusters and a couple splitting supercell structures. Damaging winds and large hail will be possible with the strongest storms. Overnight, additional thunderstorms may develop across southern Illinois and western Kentucky in association with warm-air advection ahead of the main area of thunderstorms to the west. These thunderstorms will also pose the potential for small hail and isolated wind damage. ..Marsh/Smith.. 05/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 191300Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FAR NORTH TEXAS...MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA...SOUTHEAST KANSAS...AND THE OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Significant severe weather is likely from the central/southern Plains into the the Ozarks today into tonight. All severe weather hazards are expected, to include tornadoes (some potentially strong to intense), very large hail, and severe winds. ... Synopsis ... A large, amplified trough over the Rockies will shift slowly eastward into the Plains today. Embedded within this longwave trough, a complex evolution is expected. Downstream of the trough, a negatively tilted shortwave trough will deepen and close off across the northern Plains. Meanwhile, upstream, a closed low currently over Idaho will dig southeastward, open up, and eject into the central Plains. As this evolution occurs, strong midlevel flow (in excess of 50 knots) will remain across much of the central and southern Plains through the forecast period. By late in the afternoon, midlevel flow will strengthen to perhaps 70 knots in response to the ejecting low into the central Plains. At the surface, the main synoptic low will be somewhat diffuse/elongated over northwest Kansas into southwest Nebraska this morning. Extending southward from this low, a dryline will stretch through western Kansas into the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles, continuing into west Texas. A warm front will extend eastward near the Kansas-Nebraska border before curving southeastward into Missouri into the southern Appalachians. The surface low is expected to gradually fill today as it slowly moves east/northeast into south-central Nebraska, Despite this, rich Gulf moisture will be maintained across the central and southern Plains. Dewpoint temperatures at or above 70F will advect northward from Texas through Oklahoma perhaps to as far north as northeast Kansas. During the afternoon, strong diurnal heating along the dryline may result in a sub-synoptic low developing across northwest Oklahoma. This low will slowly progress east along the Oklahoma-Kansas border during the afternoon, weakening with time. ... Southern and Central Plains into the Ozarks ... A strongly sheared atmosphere will already be in place at the start of the forecast period. As diurnal heating commences and 70F dewpoints advect northward, the atmosphere across much of the central and southern Plains will become strongly to extremely unstable as well, with surface-based CAPE values between 3000-5000 J/kg across the region. Multiple rounds of storms are expected across the region today. One such initiating mechanism looks to be a subtle shortwave trough embedded in the larger scale flow currently across eastern New Mexico. This wave should initiate thunderstorms across eastern Oklahoma northward into eastern Kansas by midday. It is unclear if these storms will initially be elevated, but as they move east and the atmosphere destabilizes further ahead of the line, a transition to more surface-based convection should occur. At the same time, the low-level jet is forecast to strengthen/reorganize across eastern Oklahoma/western Arkansas into western Missouri. This will yield ample low-level curvature to the hodograph. Thus, given the strongly sheared environment in place, supercells capable of producing all severe hazards, including strong tornadoes, will be possible with this first round of storms. By mid-to-late afternoon, 30-60 meter mid-level height falls should overspread the dryline as it mixes east into central Kansas southward into western north Texas. Rapid thunderstorm development is expected along the dryline given the forecast extreme instability. These thunderstorms should develop west of the better low-level jet/flow, where the low-level flow is expected to be a little more veered than across eastern Kansas/Oklahoma. This veered low-level flow still will result in a strongly sheered environment, but with more straight hodographs and less low-level curvature. The result should be another round of supercells, albeit with a tendency to split. These supercells will be capable of producing very large hail and tornadoes. The number of supercells across the dryline combined with a propensity to split, may result in destructive interference and result in a more episodic hail and tornado threat. In addition to the hail and tornado threat, the number of expected thunderstorms in the presence of a very moist and unstable atmosphere with steep lapse rates may result in strong downdraft winds. The most likely region for this will be across portions of northeast Oklahoma, northwest Arkansas, southeast Kansas, and southwest Missouri. A 45% wind area was included in this outlook. ... Southern Illinois into Southern Appalachians ... Along the northern periphery of shortwave ridging over the Southeast, a midlevel jet streak will cross the southern Appalachians during the afternoon. Here, an influx of steep midlevel lapse rates atop rich boundary-layer moisture will yield strong surface-based instability along/south of a warm front draped across the region. Scattered thunderstorms will spread east-southeastward along/south of the front from TN into the southern Appalachians, where the favorable buoyancy and around 40-50 kt of effective shear will promote organization into clusters and a couple splitting supercell structures. Damaging winds and large hail will be possible with the strongest storms. Overnight, additional thunderstorms may develop across southern Illinois and western Kentucky in association with warm-air advection ahead of the main area of thunderstorms to the west. These thunderstorms will also pose the potential for small hail and isolated wind damage. ..Marsh/Smith.. 05/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 191300Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FAR NORTH TEXAS...MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA...SOUTHEAST KANSAS...AND THE OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Significant severe weather is likely from the central/southern Plains into the the Ozarks today into tonight. All severe weather hazards are expected, to include tornadoes (some potentially strong to intense), very large hail, and severe winds. ... Synopsis ... A large, amplified trough over the Rockies will shift slowly eastward into the Plains today. Embedded within this longwave trough, a complex evolution is expected. Downstream of the trough, a negatively tilted shortwave trough will deepen and close off across the northern Plains. Meanwhile, upstream, a closed low currently over Idaho will dig southeastward, open up, and eject into the central Plains. As this evolution occurs, strong midlevel flow (in excess of 50 knots) will remain across much of the central and southern Plains through the forecast period. By late in the afternoon, midlevel flow will strengthen to perhaps 70 knots in response to the ejecting low into the central Plains. At the surface, the main synoptic low will be somewhat diffuse/elongated over northwest Kansas into southwest Nebraska this morning. Extending southward from this low, a dryline will stretch through western Kansas into the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles, continuing into west Texas. A warm front will extend eastward near the Kansas-Nebraska border before curving southeastward into Missouri into the southern Appalachians. The surface low is expected to gradually fill today as it slowly moves east/northeast into south-central Nebraska, Despite this, rich Gulf moisture will be maintained across the central and southern Plains. Dewpoint temperatures at or above 70F will advect northward from Texas through Oklahoma perhaps to as far north as northeast Kansas. During the afternoon, strong diurnal heating along the dryline may result in a sub-synoptic low developing across northwest Oklahoma. This low will slowly progress east along the Oklahoma-Kansas border during the afternoon, weakening with time. ... Southern and Central Plains into the Ozarks ... A strongly sheared atmosphere will already be in place at the start of the forecast period. As diurnal heating commences and 70F dewpoints advect northward, the atmosphere across much of the central and southern Plains will become strongly to extremely unstable as well, with surface-based CAPE values between 3000-5000 J/kg across the region. Multiple rounds of storms are expected across the region today. One such initiating mechanism looks to be a subtle shortwave trough embedded in the larger scale flow currently across eastern New Mexico. This wave should initiate thunderstorms across eastern Oklahoma northward into eastern Kansas by midday. It is unclear if these storms will initially be elevated, but as they move east and the atmosphere destabilizes further ahead of the line, a transition to more surface-based convection should occur. At the same time, the low-level jet is forecast to strengthen/reorganize across eastern Oklahoma/western Arkansas into western Missouri. This will yield ample low-level curvature to the hodograph. Thus, given the strongly sheared environment in place, supercells capable of producing all severe hazards, including strong tornadoes, will be possible with this first round of storms. By mid-to-late afternoon, 30-60 meter mid-level height falls should overspread the dryline as it mixes east into central Kansas southward into western north Texas. Rapid thunderstorm development is expected along the dryline given the forecast extreme instability. These thunderstorms should develop west of the better low-level jet/flow, where the low-level flow is expected to be a little more veered than across eastern Kansas/Oklahoma. This veered low-level flow still will result in a strongly sheered environment, but with more straight hodographs and less low-level curvature. The result should be another round of supercells, albeit with a tendency to split. These supercells will be capable of producing very large hail and tornadoes. The number of supercells across the dryline combined with a propensity to split, may result in destructive interference and result in a more episodic hail and tornado threat. In addition to the hail and tornado threat, the number of expected thunderstorms in the presence of a very moist and unstable atmosphere with steep lapse rates may result in strong downdraft winds. The most likely region for this will be across portions of northeast Oklahoma, northwest Arkansas, southeast Kansas, and southwest Missouri. A 45% wind area was included in this outlook. ... Southern Illinois into Southern Appalachians ... Along the northern periphery of shortwave ridging over the Southeast, a midlevel jet streak will cross the southern Appalachians during the afternoon. Here, an influx of steep midlevel lapse rates atop rich boundary-layer moisture will yield strong surface-based instability along/south of a warm front draped across the region. Scattered thunderstorms will spread east-southeastward along/south of the front from TN into the southern Appalachians, where the favorable buoyancy and around 40-50 kt of effective shear will promote organization into clusters and a couple splitting supercell structures. Damaging winds and large hail will be possible with the strongest storms. Overnight, additional thunderstorms may develop across southern Illinois and western Kentucky in association with warm-air advection ahead of the main area of thunderstorms to the west. These thunderstorms will also pose the potential for small hail and isolated wind damage. ..Marsh/Smith.. 05/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 191300Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FAR NORTH TEXAS...MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA...SOUTHEAST KANSAS...AND THE OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Significant severe weather is likely from the central/southern Plains into the the Ozarks today into tonight. All severe weather hazards are expected, to include tornadoes (some potentially strong to intense), very large hail, and severe winds. ... Synopsis ... A large, amplified trough over the Rockies will shift slowly eastward into the Plains today. Embedded within this longwave trough, a complex evolution is expected. Downstream of the trough, a negatively tilted shortwave trough will deepen and close off across the northern Plains. Meanwhile, upstream, a closed low currently over Idaho will dig southeastward, open up, and eject into the central Plains. As this evolution occurs, strong midlevel flow (in excess of 50 knots) will remain across much of the central and southern Plains through the forecast period. By late in the afternoon, midlevel flow will strengthen to perhaps 70 knots in response to the ejecting low into the central Plains. At the surface, the main synoptic low will be somewhat diffuse/elongated over northwest Kansas into southwest Nebraska this morning. Extending southward from this low, a dryline will stretch through western Kansas into the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles, continuing into west Texas. A warm front will extend eastward near the Kansas-Nebraska border before curving southeastward into Missouri into the southern Appalachians. The surface low is expected to gradually fill today as it slowly moves east/northeast into south-central Nebraska, Despite this, rich Gulf moisture will be maintained across the central and southern Plains. Dewpoint temperatures at or above 70F will advect northward from Texas through Oklahoma perhaps to as far north as northeast Kansas. During the afternoon, strong diurnal heating along the dryline may result in a sub-synoptic low developing across northwest Oklahoma. This low will slowly progress east along the Oklahoma-Kansas border during the afternoon, weakening with time. ... Southern and Central Plains into the Ozarks ... A strongly sheared atmosphere will already be in place at the start of the forecast period. As diurnal heating commences and 70F dewpoints advect northward, the atmosphere across much of the central and southern Plains will become strongly to extremely unstable as well, with surface-based CAPE values between 3000-5000 J/kg across the region. Multiple rounds of storms are expected across the region today. One such initiating mechanism looks to be a subtle shortwave trough embedded in the larger scale flow currently across eastern New Mexico. This wave should initiate thunderstorms across eastern Oklahoma northward into eastern Kansas by midday. It is unclear if these storms will initially be elevated, but as they move east and the atmosphere destabilizes further ahead of the line, a transition to more surface-based convection should occur. At the same time, the low-level jet is forecast to strengthen/reorganize across eastern Oklahoma/western Arkansas into western Missouri. This will yield ample low-level curvature to the hodograph. Thus, given the strongly sheared environment in place, supercells capable of producing all severe hazards, including strong tornadoes, will be possible with this first round of storms. By mid-to-late afternoon, 30-60 meter mid-level height falls should overspread the dryline as it mixes east into central Kansas southward into western north Texas. Rapid thunderstorm development is expected along the dryline given the forecast extreme instability. These thunderstorms should develop west of the better low-level jet/flow, where the low-level flow is expected to be a little more veered than across eastern Kansas/Oklahoma. This veered low-level flow still will result in a strongly sheered environment, but with more straight hodographs and less low-level curvature. The result should be another round of supercells, albeit with a tendency to split. These supercells will be capable of producing very large hail and tornadoes. The number of supercells across the dryline combined with a propensity to split, may result in destructive interference and result in a more episodic hail and tornado threat. In addition to the hail and tornado threat, the number of expected thunderstorms in the presence of a very moist and unstable atmosphere with steep lapse rates may result in strong downdraft winds. The most likely region for this will be across portions of northeast Oklahoma, northwest Arkansas, southeast Kansas, and southwest Missouri. A 45% wind area was included in this outlook. ... Southern Illinois into Southern Appalachians ... Along the northern periphery of shortwave ridging over the Southeast, a midlevel jet streak will cross the southern Appalachians during the afternoon. Here, an influx of steep midlevel lapse rates atop rich boundary-layer moisture will yield strong surface-based instability along/south of a warm front draped across the region. Scattered thunderstorms will spread east-southeastward along/south of the front from TN into the southern Appalachians, where the favorable buoyancy and around 40-50 kt of effective shear will promote organization into clusters and a couple splitting supercell structures. Damaging winds and large hail will be possible with the strongest storms. Overnight, additional thunderstorms may develop across southern Illinois and western Kentucky in association with warm-air advection ahead of the main area of thunderstorms to the west. These thunderstorms will also pose the potential for small hail and isolated wind damage. ..Marsh/Smith.. 05/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 191300Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FAR NORTH TEXAS...MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA...SOUTHEAST KANSAS...AND THE OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Significant severe weather is likely from the central/southern Plains into the the Ozarks today into tonight. All severe weather hazards are expected, to include tornadoes (some potentially strong to intense), very large hail, and severe winds. ... Synopsis ... A large, amplified trough over the Rockies will shift slowly eastward into the Plains today. Embedded within this longwave trough, a complex evolution is expected. Downstream of the trough, a negatively tilted shortwave trough will deepen and close off across the northern Plains. Meanwhile, upstream, a closed low currently over Idaho will dig southeastward, open up, and eject into the central Plains. As this evolution occurs, strong midlevel flow (in excess of 50 knots) will remain across much of the central and southern Plains through the forecast period. By late in the afternoon, midlevel flow will strengthen to perhaps 70 knots in response to the ejecting low into the central Plains. At the surface, the main synoptic low will be somewhat diffuse/elongated over northwest Kansas into southwest Nebraska this morning. Extending southward from this low, a dryline will stretch through western Kansas into the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles, continuing into west Texas. A warm front will extend eastward near the Kansas-Nebraska border before curving southeastward into Missouri into the southern Appalachians. The surface low is expected to gradually fill today as it slowly moves east/northeast into south-central Nebraska, Despite this, rich Gulf moisture will be maintained across the central and southern Plains. Dewpoint temperatures at or above 70F will advect northward from Texas through Oklahoma perhaps to as far north as northeast Kansas. During the afternoon, strong diurnal heating along the dryline may result in a sub-synoptic low developing across northwest Oklahoma. This low will slowly progress east along the Oklahoma-Kansas border during the afternoon, weakening with time. ... Southern and Central Plains into the Ozarks ... A strongly sheared atmosphere will already be in place at the start of the forecast period. As diurnal heating commences and 70F dewpoints advect northward, the atmosphere across much of the central and southern Plains will become strongly to extremely unstable as well, with surface-based CAPE values between 3000-5000 J/kg across the region. Multiple rounds of storms are expected across the region today. One such initiating mechanism looks to be a subtle shortwave trough embedded in the larger scale flow currently across eastern New Mexico. This wave should initiate thunderstorms across eastern Oklahoma northward into eastern Kansas by midday. It is unclear if these storms will initially be elevated, but as they move east and the atmosphere destabilizes further ahead of the line, a transition to more surface-based convection should occur. At the same time, the low-level jet is forecast to strengthen/reorganize across eastern Oklahoma/western Arkansas into western Missouri. This will yield ample low-level curvature to the hodograph. Thus, given the strongly sheared environment in place, supercells capable of producing all severe hazards, including strong tornadoes, will be possible with this first round of storms. By mid-to-late afternoon, 30-60 meter mid-level height falls should overspread the dryline as it mixes east into central Kansas southward into western north Texas. Rapid thunderstorm development is expected along the dryline given the forecast extreme instability. These thunderstorms should develop west of the better low-level jet/flow, where the low-level flow is expected to be a little more veered than across eastern Kansas/Oklahoma. This veered low-level flow still will result in a strongly sheered environment, but with more straight hodographs and less low-level curvature. The result should be another round of supercells, albeit with a tendency to split. These supercells will be capable of producing very large hail and tornadoes. The number of supercells across the dryline combined with a propensity to split, may result in destructive interference and result in a more episodic hail and tornado threat. In addition to the hail and tornado threat, the number of expected thunderstorms in the presence of a very moist and unstable atmosphere with steep lapse rates may result in strong downdraft winds. The most likely region for this will be across portions of northeast Oklahoma, northwest Arkansas, southeast Kansas, and southwest Missouri. A 45% wind area was included in this outlook. ... Southern Illinois into Southern Appalachians ... Along the northern periphery of shortwave ridging over the Southeast, a midlevel jet streak will cross the southern Appalachians during the afternoon. Here, an influx of steep midlevel lapse rates atop rich boundary-layer moisture will yield strong surface-based instability along/south of a warm front draped across the region. Scattered thunderstorms will spread east-southeastward along/south of the front from TN into the southern Appalachians, where the favorable buoyancy and around 40-50 kt of effective shear will promote organization into clusters and a couple splitting supercell structures. Damaging winds and large hail will be possible with the strongest storms. Overnight, additional thunderstorms may develop across southern Illinois and western Kentucky in association with warm-air advection ahead of the main area of thunderstorms to the west. These thunderstorms will also pose the potential for small hail and isolated wind damage. ..Marsh/Smith.. 05/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 191300Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FAR NORTH TEXAS...MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA...SOUTHEAST KANSAS...AND THE OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Significant severe weather is likely from the central/southern Plains into the the Ozarks today into tonight. All severe weather hazards are expected, to include tornadoes (some potentially strong to intense), very large hail, and severe winds. ... Synopsis ... A large, amplified trough over the Rockies will shift slowly eastward into the Plains today. Embedded within this longwave trough, a complex evolution is expected. Downstream of the trough, a negatively tilted shortwave trough will deepen and close off across the northern Plains. Meanwhile, upstream, a closed low currently over Idaho will dig southeastward, open up, and eject into the central Plains. As this evolution occurs, strong midlevel flow (in excess of 50 knots) will remain across much of the central and southern Plains through the forecast period. By late in the afternoon, midlevel flow will strengthen to perhaps 70 knots in response to the ejecting low into the central Plains. At the surface, the main synoptic low will be somewhat diffuse/elongated over northwest Kansas into southwest Nebraska this morning. Extending southward from this low, a dryline will stretch through western Kansas into the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles, continuing into west Texas. A warm front will extend eastward near the Kansas-Nebraska border before curving southeastward into Missouri into the southern Appalachians. The surface low is expected to gradually fill today as it slowly moves east/northeast into south-central Nebraska, Despite this, rich Gulf moisture will be maintained across the central and southern Plains. Dewpoint temperatures at or above 70F will advect northward from Texas through Oklahoma perhaps to as far north as northeast Kansas. During the afternoon, strong diurnal heating along the dryline may result in a sub-synoptic low developing across northwest Oklahoma. This low will slowly progress east along the Oklahoma-Kansas border during the afternoon, weakening with time. ... Southern and Central Plains into the Ozarks ... A strongly sheared atmosphere will already be in place at the start of the forecast period. As diurnal heating commences and 70F dewpoints advect northward, the atmosphere across much of the central and southern Plains will become strongly to extremely unstable as well, with surface-based CAPE values between 3000-5000 J/kg across the region. Multiple rounds of storms are expected across the region today. One such initiating mechanism looks to be a subtle shortwave trough embedded in the larger scale flow currently across eastern New Mexico. This wave should initiate thunderstorms across eastern Oklahoma northward into eastern Kansas by midday. It is unclear if these storms will initially be elevated, but as they move east and the atmosphere destabilizes further ahead of the line, a transition to more surface-based convection should occur. At the same time, the low-level jet is forecast to strengthen/reorganize across eastern Oklahoma/western Arkansas into western Missouri. This will yield ample low-level curvature to the hodograph. Thus, given the strongly sheared environment in place, supercells capable of producing all severe hazards, including strong tornadoes, will be possible with this first round of storms. By mid-to-late afternoon, 30-60 meter mid-level height falls should overspread the dryline as it mixes east into central Kansas southward into western north Texas. Rapid thunderstorm development is expected along the dryline given the forecast extreme instability. These thunderstorms should develop west of the better low-level jet/flow, where the low-level flow is expected to be a little more veered than across eastern Kansas/Oklahoma. This veered low-level flow still will result in a strongly sheered environment, but with more straight hodographs and less low-level curvature. The result should be another round of supercells, albeit with a tendency to split. These supercells will be capable of producing very large hail and tornadoes. The number of supercells across the dryline combined with a propensity to split, may result in destructive interference and result in a more episodic hail and tornado threat. In addition to the hail and tornado threat, the number of expected thunderstorms in the presence of a very moist and unstable atmosphere with steep lapse rates may result in strong downdraft winds. The most likely region for this will be across portions of northeast Oklahoma, northwest Arkansas, southeast Kansas, and southwest Missouri. A 45% wind area was included in this outlook. ... Southern Illinois into Southern Appalachians ... Along the northern periphery of shortwave ridging over the Southeast, a midlevel jet streak will cross the southern Appalachians during the afternoon. Here, an influx of steep midlevel lapse rates atop rich boundary-layer moisture will yield strong surface-based instability along/south of a warm front draped across the region. Scattered thunderstorms will spread east-southeastward along/south of the front from TN into the southern Appalachians, where the favorable buoyancy and around 40-50 kt of effective shear will promote organization into clusters and a couple splitting supercell structures. Damaging winds and large hail will be possible with the strongest storms. Overnight, additional thunderstorms may develop across southern Illinois and western Kentucky in association with warm-air advection ahead of the main area of thunderstorms to the west. These thunderstorms will also pose the potential for small hail and isolated wind damage. ..Marsh/Smith.. 05/19/2025 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 191113
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Mon May 19 2025

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... A dry airmass will be in place across most of the eastern CONUS on Thursday/D4 as a cold front moves into the western Atlantic and stalls near the Gulf Coast. This will likely represent the minimum threat during the extended severe weather period, with isolated strong to severe storms across Texas likely the only threat area. Starting Friday/D5, richer low-level moisture will advect over the southern High Plains. However, this will also correspond to shortwave ridging building across the Plains over the weekend followed by zonal flow into early next week. This pattern may support some localized threat each day, but more widespread, predictable severe weather is unlikely at an extended range. As these days draw closer, more confined regions of threat may become more clear and allow for severe weather probabilities to be added. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... A dry airmass will be in place across most of the eastern CONUS on Thursday/D4 as a cold front moves into the western Atlantic and stalls near the Gulf Coast. This will likely represent the minimum threat during the extended severe weather period, with isolated strong to severe storms across Texas likely the only threat area. Starting Friday/D5, richer low-level moisture will advect over the southern High Plains. However, this will also correspond to shortwave ridging building across the Plains over the weekend followed by zonal flow into early next week. This pattern may support some localized threat each day, but more widespread, predictable severe weather is unlikely at an extended range. As these days draw closer, more confined regions of threat may become more clear and allow for severe weather probabilities to be added. Read more