SPC May 19, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

2 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe storms are possible Wednesday mainly across parts of North Carolina and nearby parts of southern Virginia and/or eastern South Carolina. ...Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic/Southeast States... Within the base of the Great Lakes-centered upper trough, strong westerlies aloft will exist over the Carolinas, central/southern Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic States on Wednesday. Scattered thunderstorms will likely be ongoing in the morning, potentially complexifying the details of where the north/south extent of most-favorable severe storm ingredients will materialize. However, severe-weather potential currently seems most likely to set up across North Carolina and possibly southern Virginia in vicinity of the warm front and a weak surface wave. A semi-focused corridor of supercell/severe-storm potential could materialize with hail/damaging wind and tornado potential. Slight Risk-caliber severe probabilities are plausible into the Day 2 or Day 1 time frame as forecast details are refined. Other more isolated severe storms may occur through the afternoon with southwestward extent along the southeastward-advancing cold front into southeast Georgia and northern Florida, where moderate buoyancy is expected coincident with the southern edge of stronger westerlies aloft. ..Guyer.. 05/19/2025 Read more

SPC May 19, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

2 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe storms are possible Wednesday mainly across parts of North Carolina and nearby parts of southern Virginia and/or eastern South Carolina. ...Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic/Southeast States... Within the base of the Great Lakes-centered upper trough, strong westerlies aloft will exist over the Carolinas, central/southern Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic States on Wednesday. Scattered thunderstorms will likely be ongoing in the morning, potentially complexifying the details of where the north/south extent of most-favorable severe storm ingredients will materialize. However, severe-weather potential currently seems most likely to set up across North Carolina and possibly southern Virginia in vicinity of the warm front and a weak surface wave. A semi-focused corridor of supercell/severe-storm potential could materialize with hail/damaging wind and tornado potential. Slight Risk-caliber severe probabilities are plausible into the Day 2 or Day 1 time frame as forecast details are refined. Other more isolated severe storms may occur through the afternoon with southwestward extent along the southeastward-advancing cold front into southeast Georgia and northern Florida, where moderate buoyancy is expected coincident with the southern edge of stronger westerlies aloft. ..Guyer.. 05/19/2025 Read more

SPC May 19, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

2 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe storms are possible Wednesday mainly across parts of North Carolina and nearby parts of southern Virginia and/or eastern South Carolina. ...Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic/Southeast States... Within the base of the Great Lakes-centered upper trough, strong westerlies aloft will exist over the Carolinas, central/southern Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic States on Wednesday. Scattered thunderstorms will likely be ongoing in the morning, potentially complexifying the details of where the north/south extent of most-favorable severe storm ingredients will materialize. However, severe-weather potential currently seems most likely to set up across North Carolina and possibly southern Virginia in vicinity of the warm front and a weak surface wave. A semi-focused corridor of supercell/severe-storm potential could materialize with hail/damaging wind and tornado potential. Slight Risk-caliber severe probabilities are plausible into the Day 2 or Day 1 time frame as forecast details are refined. Other more isolated severe storms may occur through the afternoon with southwestward extent along the southeastward-advancing cold front into southeast Georgia and northern Florida, where moderate buoyancy is expected coincident with the southern edge of stronger westerlies aloft. ..Guyer.. 05/19/2025 Read more

SPC May 19, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

2 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe storms are possible Wednesday mainly across parts of North Carolina and nearby parts of southern Virginia and/or eastern South Carolina. ...Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic/Southeast States... Within the base of the Great Lakes-centered upper trough, strong westerlies aloft will exist over the Carolinas, central/southern Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic States on Wednesday. Scattered thunderstorms will likely be ongoing in the morning, potentially complexifying the details of where the north/south extent of most-favorable severe storm ingredients will materialize. However, severe-weather potential currently seems most likely to set up across North Carolina and possibly southern Virginia in vicinity of the warm front and a weak surface wave. A semi-focused corridor of supercell/severe-storm potential could materialize with hail/damaging wind and tornado potential. Slight Risk-caliber severe probabilities are plausible into the Day 2 or Day 1 time frame as forecast details are refined. Other more isolated severe storms may occur through the afternoon with southwestward extent along the southeastward-advancing cold front into southeast Georgia and northern Florida, where moderate buoyancy is expected coincident with the southern edge of stronger westerlies aloft. ..Guyer.. 05/19/2025 Read more

SPC May 19, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

2 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe storms are possible Wednesday mainly across parts of North Carolina and nearby parts of southern Virginia and/or eastern South Carolina. ...Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic/Southeast States... Within the base of the Great Lakes-centered upper trough, strong westerlies aloft will exist over the Carolinas, central/southern Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic States on Wednesday. Scattered thunderstorms will likely be ongoing in the morning, potentially complexifying the details of where the north/south extent of most-favorable severe storm ingredients will materialize. However, severe-weather potential currently seems most likely to set up across North Carolina and possibly southern Virginia in vicinity of the warm front and a weak surface wave. A semi-focused corridor of supercell/severe-storm potential could materialize with hail/damaging wind and tornado potential. Slight Risk-caliber severe probabilities are plausible into the Day 2 or Day 1 time frame as forecast details are refined. Other more isolated severe storms may occur through the afternoon with southwestward extent along the southeastward-advancing cold front into southeast Georgia and northern Florida, where moderate buoyancy is expected coincident with the southern edge of stronger westerlies aloft. ..Guyer.. 05/19/2025 Read more

SPC May 19, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

2 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe storms are possible Wednesday mainly across parts of North Carolina and nearby parts of southern Virginia and/or eastern South Carolina. ...Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic/Southeast States... Within the base of the Great Lakes-centered upper trough, strong westerlies aloft will exist over the Carolinas, central/southern Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic States on Wednesday. Scattered thunderstorms will likely be ongoing in the morning, potentially complexifying the details of where the north/south extent of most-favorable severe storm ingredients will materialize. However, severe-weather potential currently seems most likely to set up across North Carolina and possibly southern Virginia in vicinity of the warm front and a weak surface wave. A semi-focused corridor of supercell/severe-storm potential could materialize with hail/damaging wind and tornado potential. Slight Risk-caliber severe probabilities are plausible into the Day 2 or Day 1 time frame as forecast details are refined. Other more isolated severe storms may occur through the afternoon with southwestward extent along the southeastward-advancing cold front into southeast Georgia and northern Florida, where moderate buoyancy is expected coincident with the southern edge of stronger westerlies aloft. ..Guyer.. 05/19/2025 Read more

SPC May 19, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

2 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe storms are possible Wednesday mainly across parts of North Carolina and nearby parts of southern Virginia and/or eastern South Carolina. ...Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic/Southeast States... Within the base of the Great Lakes-centered upper trough, strong westerlies aloft will exist over the Carolinas, central/southern Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic States on Wednesday. Scattered thunderstorms will likely be ongoing in the morning, potentially complexifying the details of where the north/south extent of most-favorable severe storm ingredients will materialize. However, severe-weather potential currently seems most likely to set up across North Carolina and possibly southern Virginia in vicinity of the warm front and a weak surface wave. A semi-focused corridor of supercell/severe-storm potential could materialize with hail/damaging wind and tornado potential. Slight Risk-caliber severe probabilities are plausible into the Day 2 or Day 1 time frame as forecast details are refined. Other more isolated severe storms may occur through the afternoon with southwestward extent along the southeastward-advancing cold front into southeast Georgia and northern Florida, where moderate buoyancy is expected coincident with the southern edge of stronger westerlies aloft. ..Guyer.. 05/19/2025 Read more

SPC May 19, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

2 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe storms are possible Wednesday mainly across parts of North Carolina and nearby parts of southern Virginia and/or eastern South Carolina. ...Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic/Southeast States... Within the base of the Great Lakes-centered upper trough, strong westerlies aloft will exist over the Carolinas, central/southern Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic States on Wednesday. Scattered thunderstorms will likely be ongoing in the morning, potentially complexifying the details of where the north/south extent of most-favorable severe storm ingredients will materialize. However, severe-weather potential currently seems most likely to set up across North Carolina and possibly southern Virginia in vicinity of the warm front and a weak surface wave. A semi-focused corridor of supercell/severe-storm potential could materialize with hail/damaging wind and tornado potential. Slight Risk-caliber severe probabilities are plausible into the Day 2 or Day 1 time frame as forecast details are refined. Other more isolated severe storms may occur through the afternoon with southwestward extent along the southeastward-advancing cold front into southeast Georgia and northern Florida, where moderate buoyancy is expected coincident with the southern edge of stronger westerlies aloft. ..Guyer.. 05/19/2025 Read more

SPC May 19, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

2 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe storms are possible Wednesday mainly across parts of North Carolina and nearby parts of southern Virginia and/or eastern South Carolina. ...Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic/Southeast States... Within the base of the Great Lakes-centered upper trough, strong westerlies aloft will exist over the Carolinas, central/southern Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic States on Wednesday. Scattered thunderstorms will likely be ongoing in the morning, potentially complexifying the details of where the north/south extent of most-favorable severe storm ingredients will materialize. However, severe-weather potential currently seems most likely to set up across North Carolina and possibly southern Virginia in vicinity of the warm front and a weak surface wave. A semi-focused corridor of supercell/severe-storm potential could materialize with hail/damaging wind and tornado potential. Slight Risk-caliber severe probabilities are plausible into the Day 2 or Day 1 time frame as forecast details are refined. Other more isolated severe storms may occur through the afternoon with southwestward extent along the southeastward-advancing cold front into southeast Georgia and northern Florida, where moderate buoyancy is expected coincident with the southern edge of stronger westerlies aloft. ..Guyer.. 05/19/2025 Read more

SPC May 19, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

2 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe storms are possible Wednesday mainly across parts of North Carolina and nearby parts of southern Virginia and/or eastern South Carolina. ...Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic/Southeast States... Within the base of the Great Lakes-centered upper trough, strong westerlies aloft will exist over the Carolinas, central/southern Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic States on Wednesday. Scattered thunderstorms will likely be ongoing in the morning, potentially complexifying the details of where the north/south extent of most-favorable severe storm ingredients will materialize. However, severe-weather potential currently seems most likely to set up across North Carolina and possibly southern Virginia in vicinity of the warm front and a weak surface wave. A semi-focused corridor of supercell/severe-storm potential could materialize with hail/damaging wind and tornado potential. Slight Risk-caliber severe probabilities are plausible into the Day 2 or Day 1 time frame as forecast details are refined. Other more isolated severe storms may occur through the afternoon with southwestward extent along the southeastward-advancing cold front into southeast Georgia and northern Florida, where moderate buoyancy is expected coincident with the southern edge of stronger westerlies aloft. ..Guyer.. 05/19/2025 Read more

SPC May 19, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

2 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe storms are possible Wednesday mainly across parts of North Carolina and nearby parts of southern Virginia and/or eastern South Carolina. ...Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic/Southeast States... Within the base of the Great Lakes-centered upper trough, strong westerlies aloft will exist over the Carolinas, central/southern Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic States on Wednesday. Scattered thunderstorms will likely be ongoing in the morning, potentially complexifying the details of where the north/south extent of most-favorable severe storm ingredients will materialize. However, severe-weather potential currently seems most likely to set up across North Carolina and possibly southern Virginia in vicinity of the warm front and a weak surface wave. A semi-focused corridor of supercell/severe-storm potential could materialize with hail/damaging wind and tornado potential. Slight Risk-caliber severe probabilities are plausible into the Day 2 or Day 1 time frame as forecast details are refined. Other more isolated severe storms may occur through the afternoon with southwestward extent along the southeastward-advancing cold front into southeast Georgia and northern Florida, where moderate buoyancy is expected coincident with the southern edge of stronger westerlies aloft. ..Guyer.. 05/19/2025 Read more

SPC May 19, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

2 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe storms are possible Wednesday mainly across parts of North Carolina and nearby parts of southern Virginia and/or eastern South Carolina. ...Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic/Southeast States... Within the base of the Great Lakes-centered upper trough, strong westerlies aloft will exist over the Carolinas, central/southern Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic States on Wednesday. Scattered thunderstorms will likely be ongoing in the morning, potentially complexifying the details of where the north/south extent of most-favorable severe storm ingredients will materialize. However, severe-weather potential currently seems most likely to set up across North Carolina and possibly southern Virginia in vicinity of the warm front and a weak surface wave. A semi-focused corridor of supercell/severe-storm potential could materialize with hail/damaging wind and tornado potential. Slight Risk-caliber severe probabilities are plausible into the Day 2 or Day 1 time frame as forecast details are refined. Other more isolated severe storms may occur through the afternoon with southwestward extent along the southeastward-advancing cold front into southeast Georgia and northern Florida, where moderate buoyancy is expected coincident with the southern edge of stronger westerlies aloft. ..Guyer.. 05/19/2025 Read more

SPC May 19, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

2 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe storms are possible Wednesday mainly across parts of North Carolina and nearby parts of southern Virginia and/or eastern South Carolina. ...Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic/Southeast States... Within the base of the Great Lakes-centered upper trough, strong westerlies aloft will exist over the Carolinas, central/southern Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic States on Wednesday. Scattered thunderstorms will likely be ongoing in the morning, potentially complexifying the details of where the north/south extent of most-favorable severe storm ingredients will materialize. However, severe-weather potential currently seems most likely to set up across North Carolina and possibly southern Virginia in vicinity of the warm front and a weak surface wave. A semi-focused corridor of supercell/severe-storm potential could materialize with hail/damaging wind and tornado potential. Slight Risk-caliber severe probabilities are plausible into the Day 2 or Day 1 time frame as forecast details are refined. Other more isolated severe storms may occur through the afternoon with southwestward extent along the southeastward-advancing cold front into southeast Georgia and northern Florida, where moderate buoyancy is expected coincident with the southern edge of stronger westerlies aloft. ..Guyer.. 05/19/2025 Read more

SPC May 19, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

2 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe storms are possible Wednesday mainly across parts of North Carolina and nearby parts of southern Virginia and/or eastern South Carolina. ...Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic/Southeast States... Within the base of the Great Lakes-centered upper trough, strong westerlies aloft will exist over the Carolinas, central/southern Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic States on Wednesday. Scattered thunderstorms will likely be ongoing in the morning, potentially complexifying the details of where the north/south extent of most-favorable severe storm ingredients will materialize. However, severe-weather potential currently seems most likely to set up across North Carolina and possibly southern Virginia in vicinity of the warm front and a weak surface wave. A semi-focused corridor of supercell/severe-storm potential could materialize with hail/damaging wind and tornado potential. Slight Risk-caliber severe probabilities are plausible into the Day 2 or Day 1 time frame as forecast details are refined. Other more isolated severe storms may occur through the afternoon with southwestward extent along the southeastward-advancing cold front into southeast Georgia and northern Florida, where moderate buoyancy is expected coincident with the southern edge of stronger westerlies aloft. ..Guyer.. 05/19/2025 Read more

SPC May 19, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

2 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe storms are possible Wednesday mainly across parts of North Carolina and nearby parts of southern Virginia and/or eastern South Carolina. ...Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic/Southeast States... Within the base of the Great Lakes-centered upper trough, strong westerlies aloft will exist over the Carolinas, central/southern Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic States on Wednesday. Scattered thunderstorms will likely be ongoing in the morning, potentially complexifying the details of where the north/south extent of most-favorable severe storm ingredients will materialize. However, severe-weather potential currently seems most likely to set up across North Carolina and possibly southern Virginia in vicinity of the warm front and a weak surface wave. A semi-focused corridor of supercell/severe-storm potential could materialize with hail/damaging wind and tornado potential. Slight Risk-caliber severe probabilities are plausible into the Day 2 or Day 1 time frame as forecast details are refined. Other more isolated severe storms may occur through the afternoon with southwestward extent along the southeastward-advancing cold front into southeast Georgia and northern Florida, where moderate buoyancy is expected coincident with the southern edge of stronger westerlies aloft. ..Guyer.. 05/19/2025 Read more

SPC May 19, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

2 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe storms are possible Wednesday mainly across parts of North Carolina and nearby parts of southern Virginia and/or eastern South Carolina. ...Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic/Southeast States... Within the base of the Great Lakes-centered upper trough, strong westerlies aloft will exist over the Carolinas, central/southern Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic States on Wednesday. Scattered thunderstorms will likely be ongoing in the morning, potentially complexifying the details of where the north/south extent of most-favorable severe storm ingredients will materialize. However, severe-weather potential currently seems most likely to set up across North Carolina and possibly southern Virginia in vicinity of the warm front and a weak surface wave. A semi-focused corridor of supercell/severe-storm potential could materialize with hail/damaging wind and tornado potential. Slight Risk-caliber severe probabilities are plausible into the Day 2 or Day 1 time frame as forecast details are refined. Other more isolated severe storms may occur through the afternoon with southwestward extent along the southeastward-advancing cold front into southeast Georgia and northern Florida, where moderate buoyancy is expected coincident with the southern edge of stronger westerlies aloft. ..Guyer.. 05/19/2025 Read more

SPC May 19, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

2 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe storms are possible Wednesday mainly across parts of North Carolina and nearby parts of southern Virginia and/or eastern South Carolina. ...Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic/Southeast States... Within the base of the Great Lakes-centered upper trough, strong westerlies aloft will exist over the Carolinas, central/southern Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic States on Wednesday. Scattered thunderstorms will likely be ongoing in the morning, potentially complexifying the details of where the north/south extent of most-favorable severe storm ingredients will materialize. However, severe-weather potential currently seems most likely to set up across North Carolina and possibly southern Virginia in vicinity of the warm front and a weak surface wave. A semi-focused corridor of supercell/severe-storm potential could materialize with hail/damaging wind and tornado potential. Slight Risk-caliber severe probabilities are plausible into the Day 2 or Day 1 time frame as forecast details are refined. Other more isolated severe storms may occur through the afternoon with southwestward extent along the southeastward-advancing cold front into southeast Georgia and northern Florida, where moderate buoyancy is expected coincident with the southern edge of stronger westerlies aloft. ..Guyer.. 05/19/2025 Read more

SPC May 19, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

2 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe storms are possible Wednesday mainly across parts of North Carolina and nearby parts of southern Virginia and/or eastern South Carolina. ...Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic/Southeast States... Within the base of the Great Lakes-centered upper trough, strong westerlies aloft will exist over the Carolinas, central/southern Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic States on Wednesday. Scattered thunderstorms will likely be ongoing in the morning, potentially complexifying the details of where the north/south extent of most-favorable severe storm ingredients will materialize. However, severe-weather potential currently seems most likely to set up across North Carolina and possibly southern Virginia in vicinity of the warm front and a weak surface wave. A semi-focused corridor of supercell/severe-storm potential could materialize with hail/damaging wind and tornado potential. Slight Risk-caliber severe probabilities are plausible into the Day 2 or Day 1 time frame as forecast details are refined. Other more isolated severe storms may occur through the afternoon with southwestward extent along the southeastward-advancing cold front into southeast Georgia and northern Florida, where moderate buoyancy is expected coincident with the southern edge of stronger westerlies aloft. ..Guyer.. 05/19/2025 Read more

SPC May 19, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

2 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe storms are possible Wednesday mainly across parts of North Carolina and nearby parts of southern Virginia and/or eastern South Carolina. ...Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic/Southeast States... Within the base of the Great Lakes-centered upper trough, strong westerlies aloft will exist over the Carolinas, central/southern Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic States on Wednesday. Scattered thunderstorms will likely be ongoing in the morning, potentially complexifying the details of where the north/south extent of most-favorable severe storm ingredients will materialize. However, severe-weather potential currently seems most likely to set up across North Carolina and possibly southern Virginia in vicinity of the warm front and a weak surface wave. A semi-focused corridor of supercell/severe-storm potential could materialize with hail/damaging wind and tornado potential. Slight Risk-caliber severe probabilities are plausible into the Day 2 or Day 1 time frame as forecast details are refined. Other more isolated severe storms may occur through the afternoon with southwestward extent along the southeastward-advancing cold front into southeast Georgia and northern Florida, where moderate buoyancy is expected coincident with the southern edge of stronger westerlies aloft. ..Guyer.. 05/19/2025 Read more

SPC May 19, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

2 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe storms are possible Wednesday mainly across parts of North Carolina and nearby parts of southern Virginia and/or eastern South Carolina. ...Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic/Southeast States... Within the base of the Great Lakes-centered upper trough, strong westerlies aloft will exist over the Carolinas, central/southern Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic States on Wednesday. Scattered thunderstorms will likely be ongoing in the morning, potentially complexifying the details of where the north/south extent of most-favorable severe storm ingredients will materialize. However, severe-weather potential currently seems most likely to set up across North Carolina and possibly southern Virginia in vicinity of the warm front and a weak surface wave. A semi-focused corridor of supercell/severe-storm potential could materialize with hail/damaging wind and tornado potential. Slight Risk-caliber severe probabilities are plausible into the Day 2 or Day 1 time frame as forecast details are refined. Other more isolated severe storms may occur through the afternoon with southwestward extent along the southeastward-advancing cold front into southeast Georgia and northern Florida, where moderate buoyancy is expected coincident with the southern edge of stronger westerlies aloft. ..Guyer.. 05/19/2025 Read more