SPC May 20, 2025 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

2 months 3 weeks ago
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Tue May 20 2025 Valid 231200Z - 281200Z ...DISCUSSION... Strong to severe storms are possible across the southern Plains D4/Friday to D6/Sunday. Beyond Day 6, anomalous troughing is forecast to develop across the Northeast with strong high pressure building into the Plains. This would result in a southward cold frontal surge and a lull in severe weather chances early next week. ...Day 4/Friday to Day 6/Sunday... Mid-level ridging will build across the Plains on D4/Friday and D5/Saturday. Moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop across Texas and Oklahoma as upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints advect northward. A warm front will likely set up somewhere in the northern Oklahoma to central Kansas vicinity as weak lee cyclogenesis occurs near the TX/OK Panhandle. Nocturnal increases in the low-level jet will likely result in convection north of this warm front each night with sufficient shear and instability for some severe storms. Storm development farther south along the dryline remains more questionable due to the weak synoptic scale forcing. Severe weather probabilities will likely be needed eventually across portions of the central/southern Plains, but details remain too nebulous for 15% probabilities at this time. Read more

SPC May 20, 2025 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

2 months 3 weeks ago
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Tue May 20 2025 Valid 231200Z - 281200Z ...DISCUSSION... Strong to severe storms are possible across the southern Plains D4/Friday to D6/Sunday. Beyond Day 6, anomalous troughing is forecast to develop across the Northeast with strong high pressure building into the Plains. This would result in a southward cold frontal surge and a lull in severe weather chances early next week. ...Day 4/Friday to Day 6/Sunday... Mid-level ridging will build across the Plains on D4/Friday and D5/Saturday. Moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop across Texas and Oklahoma as upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints advect northward. A warm front will likely set up somewhere in the northern Oklahoma to central Kansas vicinity as weak lee cyclogenesis occurs near the TX/OK Panhandle. Nocturnal increases in the low-level jet will likely result in convection north of this warm front each night with sufficient shear and instability for some severe storms. Storm development farther south along the dryline remains more questionable due to the weak synoptic scale forcing. Severe weather probabilities will likely be needed eventually across portions of the central/southern Plains, but details remain too nebulous for 15% probabilities at this time. Read more

SPC May 20, 2025 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

2 months 3 weeks ago
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Tue May 20 2025 Valid 231200Z - 281200Z ...DISCUSSION... Strong to severe storms are possible across the southern Plains D4/Friday to D6/Sunday. Beyond Day 6, anomalous troughing is forecast to develop across the Northeast with strong high pressure building into the Plains. This would result in a southward cold frontal surge and a lull in severe weather chances early next week. ...Day 4/Friday to Day 6/Sunday... Mid-level ridging will build across the Plains on D4/Friday and D5/Saturday. Moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop across Texas and Oklahoma as upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints advect northward. A warm front will likely set up somewhere in the northern Oklahoma to central Kansas vicinity as weak lee cyclogenesis occurs near the TX/OK Panhandle. Nocturnal increases in the low-level jet will likely result in convection north of this warm front each night with sufficient shear and instability for some severe storms. Storm development farther south along the dryline remains more questionable due to the weak synoptic scale forcing. Severe weather probabilities will likely be needed eventually across portions of the central/southern Plains, but details remain too nebulous for 15% probabilities at this time. Read more

SPC May 20, 2025 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

2 months 3 weeks ago
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Tue May 20 2025 Valid 231200Z - 281200Z ...DISCUSSION... Strong to severe storms are possible across the southern Plains D4/Friday to D6/Sunday. Beyond Day 6, anomalous troughing is forecast to develop across the Northeast with strong high pressure building into the Plains. This would result in a southward cold frontal surge and a lull in severe weather chances early next week. ...Day 4/Friday to Day 6/Sunday... Mid-level ridging will build across the Plains on D4/Friday and D5/Saturday. Moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop across Texas and Oklahoma as upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints advect northward. A warm front will likely set up somewhere in the northern Oklahoma to central Kansas vicinity as weak lee cyclogenesis occurs near the TX/OK Panhandle. Nocturnal increases in the low-level jet will likely result in convection north of this warm front each night with sufficient shear and instability for some severe storms. Storm development farther south along the dryline remains more questionable due to the weak synoptic scale forcing. Severe weather probabilities will likely be needed eventually across portions of the central/southern Plains, but details remain too nebulous for 15% probabilities at this time. Read more

SPC May 20, 2025 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

2 months 3 weeks ago
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Tue May 20 2025 Valid 231200Z - 281200Z ...DISCUSSION... Strong to severe storms are possible across the southern Plains D4/Friday to D6/Sunday. Beyond Day 6, anomalous troughing is forecast to develop across the Northeast with strong high pressure building into the Plains. This would result in a southward cold frontal surge and a lull in severe weather chances early next week. ...Day 4/Friday to Day 6/Sunday... Mid-level ridging will build across the Plains on D4/Friday and D5/Saturday. Moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop across Texas and Oklahoma as upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints advect northward. A warm front will likely set up somewhere in the northern Oklahoma to central Kansas vicinity as weak lee cyclogenesis occurs near the TX/OK Panhandle. Nocturnal increases in the low-level jet will likely result in convection north of this warm front each night with sufficient shear and instability for some severe storms. Storm development farther south along the dryline remains more questionable due to the weak synoptic scale forcing. Severe weather probabilities will likely be needed eventually across portions of the central/southern Plains, but details remain too nebulous for 15% probabilities at this time. Read more

SPC May 20, 2025 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

2 months 3 weeks ago
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Tue May 20 2025 Valid 231200Z - 281200Z ...DISCUSSION... Strong to severe storms are possible across the southern Plains D4/Friday to D6/Sunday. Beyond Day 6, anomalous troughing is forecast to develop across the Northeast with strong high pressure building into the Plains. This would result in a southward cold frontal surge and a lull in severe weather chances early next week. ...Day 4/Friday to Day 6/Sunday... Mid-level ridging will build across the Plains on D4/Friday and D5/Saturday. Moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop across Texas and Oklahoma as upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints advect northward. A warm front will likely set up somewhere in the northern Oklahoma to central Kansas vicinity as weak lee cyclogenesis occurs near the TX/OK Panhandle. Nocturnal increases in the low-level jet will likely result in convection north of this warm front each night with sufficient shear and instability for some severe storms. Storm development farther south along the dryline remains more questionable due to the weak synoptic scale forcing. Severe weather probabilities will likely be needed eventually across portions of the central/southern Plains, but details remain too nebulous for 15% probabilities at this time. Read more

SPC May 20, 2025 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

2 months 3 weeks ago
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Tue May 20 2025 Valid 231200Z - 281200Z ...DISCUSSION... Strong to severe storms are possible across the southern Plains D4/Friday to D6/Sunday. Beyond Day 6, anomalous troughing is forecast to develop across the Northeast with strong high pressure building into the Plains. This would result in a southward cold frontal surge and a lull in severe weather chances early next week. ...Day 4/Friday to Day 6/Sunday... Mid-level ridging will build across the Plains on D4/Friday and D5/Saturday. Moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop across Texas and Oklahoma as upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints advect northward. A warm front will likely set up somewhere in the northern Oklahoma to central Kansas vicinity as weak lee cyclogenesis occurs near the TX/OK Panhandle. Nocturnal increases in the low-level jet will likely result in convection north of this warm front each night with sufficient shear and instability for some severe storms. Storm development farther south along the dryline remains more questionable due to the weak synoptic scale forcing. Severe weather probabilities will likely be needed eventually across portions of the central/southern Plains, but details remain too nebulous for 15% probabilities at this time. Read more

SPC May 20, 2025 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

2 months 3 weeks ago
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Tue May 20 2025 Valid 231200Z - 281200Z ...DISCUSSION... Strong to severe storms are possible across the southern Plains D4/Friday to D6/Sunday. Beyond Day 6, anomalous troughing is forecast to develop across the Northeast with strong high pressure building into the Plains. This would result in a southward cold frontal surge and a lull in severe weather chances early next week. ...Day 4/Friday to Day 6/Sunday... Mid-level ridging will build across the Plains on D4/Friday and D5/Saturday. Moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop across Texas and Oklahoma as upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints advect northward. A warm front will likely set up somewhere in the northern Oklahoma to central Kansas vicinity as weak lee cyclogenesis occurs near the TX/OK Panhandle. Nocturnal increases in the low-level jet will likely result in convection north of this warm front each night with sufficient shear and instability for some severe storms. Storm development farther south along the dryline remains more questionable due to the weak synoptic scale forcing. Severe weather probabilities will likely be needed eventually across portions of the central/southern Plains, but details remain too nebulous for 15% probabilities at this time. Read more

SPC May 20, 2025 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

2 months 3 weeks ago
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Tue May 20 2025 Valid 231200Z - 281200Z ...DISCUSSION... Strong to severe storms are possible across the southern Plains D4/Friday to D6/Sunday. Beyond Day 6, anomalous troughing is forecast to develop across the Northeast with strong high pressure building into the Plains. This would result in a southward cold frontal surge and a lull in severe weather chances early next week. ...Day 4/Friday to Day 6/Sunday... Mid-level ridging will build across the Plains on D4/Friday and D5/Saturday. Moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop across Texas and Oklahoma as upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints advect northward. A warm front will likely set up somewhere in the northern Oklahoma to central Kansas vicinity as weak lee cyclogenesis occurs near the TX/OK Panhandle. Nocturnal increases in the low-level jet will likely result in convection north of this warm front each night with sufficient shear and instability for some severe storms. Storm development farther south along the dryline remains more questionable due to the weak synoptic scale forcing. Severe weather probabilities will likely be needed eventually across portions of the central/southern Plains, but details remain too nebulous for 15% probabilities at this time. Read more

SPC May 20, 2025 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

2 months 3 weeks ago
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Tue May 20 2025 Valid 231200Z - 281200Z ...DISCUSSION... Strong to severe storms are possible across the southern Plains D4/Friday to D6/Sunday. Beyond Day 6, anomalous troughing is forecast to develop across the Northeast with strong high pressure building into the Plains. This would result in a southward cold frontal surge and a lull in severe weather chances early next week. ...Day 4/Friday to Day 6/Sunday... Mid-level ridging will build across the Plains on D4/Friday and D5/Saturday. Moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop across Texas and Oklahoma as upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints advect northward. A warm front will likely set up somewhere in the northern Oklahoma to central Kansas vicinity as weak lee cyclogenesis occurs near the TX/OK Panhandle. Nocturnal increases in the low-level jet will likely result in convection north of this warm front each night with sufficient shear and instability for some severe storms. Storm development farther south along the dryline remains more questionable due to the weak synoptic scale forcing. Severe weather probabilities will likely be needed eventually across portions of the central/southern Plains, but details remain too nebulous for 15% probabilities at this time. Read more

SPC May 20, 2025 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

2 months 3 weeks ago
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Tue May 20 2025 Valid 231200Z - 281200Z ...DISCUSSION... Strong to severe storms are possible across the southern Plains D4/Friday to D6/Sunday. Beyond Day 6, anomalous troughing is forecast to develop across the Northeast with strong high pressure building into the Plains. This would result in a southward cold frontal surge and a lull in severe weather chances early next week. ...Day 4/Friday to Day 6/Sunday... Mid-level ridging will build across the Plains on D4/Friday and D5/Saturday. Moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop across Texas and Oklahoma as upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints advect northward. A warm front will likely set up somewhere in the northern Oklahoma to central Kansas vicinity as weak lee cyclogenesis occurs near the TX/OK Panhandle. Nocturnal increases in the low-level jet will likely result in convection north of this warm front each night with sufficient shear and instability for some severe storms. Storm development farther south along the dryline remains more questionable due to the weak synoptic scale forcing. Severe weather probabilities will likely be needed eventually across portions of the central/southern Plains, but details remain too nebulous for 15% probabilities at this time. Read more

SPC May 20, 2025 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

2 months 3 weeks ago
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Tue May 20 2025 Valid 231200Z - 281200Z ...DISCUSSION... Strong to severe storms are possible across the southern Plains D4/Friday to D6/Sunday. Beyond Day 6, anomalous troughing is forecast to develop across the Northeast with strong high pressure building into the Plains. This would result in a southward cold frontal surge and a lull in severe weather chances early next week. ...Day 4/Friday to Day 6/Sunday... Mid-level ridging will build across the Plains on D4/Friday and D5/Saturday. Moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop across Texas and Oklahoma as upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints advect northward. A warm front will likely set up somewhere in the northern Oklahoma to central Kansas vicinity as weak lee cyclogenesis occurs near the TX/OK Panhandle. Nocturnal increases in the low-level jet will likely result in convection north of this warm front each night with sufficient shear and instability for some severe storms. Storm development farther south along the dryline remains more questionable due to the weak synoptic scale forcing. Severe weather probabilities will likely be needed eventually across portions of the central/southern Plains, but details remain too nebulous for 15% probabilities at this time. Read more

SPC May 20, 2025 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

2 months 3 weeks ago
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Tue May 20 2025 Valid 231200Z - 281200Z ...DISCUSSION... Strong to severe storms are possible across the southern Plains D4/Friday to D6/Sunday. Beyond Day 6, anomalous troughing is forecast to develop across the Northeast with strong high pressure building into the Plains. This would result in a southward cold frontal surge and a lull in severe weather chances early next week. ...Day 4/Friday to Day 6/Sunday... Mid-level ridging will build across the Plains on D4/Friday and D5/Saturday. Moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop across Texas and Oklahoma as upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints advect northward. A warm front will likely set up somewhere in the northern Oklahoma to central Kansas vicinity as weak lee cyclogenesis occurs near the TX/OK Panhandle. Nocturnal increases in the low-level jet will likely result in convection north of this warm front each night with sufficient shear and instability for some severe storms. Storm development farther south along the dryline remains more questionable due to the weak synoptic scale forcing. Severe weather probabilities will likely be needed eventually across portions of the central/southern Plains, but details remain too nebulous for 15% probabilities at this time. Read more

SPC May 20, 2025 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

2 months 3 weeks ago
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Tue May 20 2025 Valid 231200Z - 281200Z ...DISCUSSION... Strong to severe storms are possible across the southern Plains D4/Friday to D6/Sunday. Beyond Day 6, anomalous troughing is forecast to develop across the Northeast with strong high pressure building into the Plains. This would result in a southward cold frontal surge and a lull in severe weather chances early next week. ...Day 4/Friday to Day 6/Sunday... Mid-level ridging will build across the Plains on D4/Friday and D5/Saturday. Moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop across Texas and Oklahoma as upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints advect northward. A warm front will likely set up somewhere in the northern Oklahoma to central Kansas vicinity as weak lee cyclogenesis occurs near the TX/OK Panhandle. Nocturnal increases in the low-level jet will likely result in convection north of this warm front each night with sufficient shear and instability for some severe storms. Storm development farther south along the dryline remains more questionable due to the weak synoptic scale forcing. Severe weather probabilities will likely be needed eventually across portions of the central/southern Plains, but details remain too nebulous for 15% probabilities at this time. Read more

SPC May 20, 2025 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

2 months 3 weeks ago
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Tue May 20 2025 Valid 231200Z - 281200Z ...DISCUSSION... Strong to severe storms are possible across the southern Plains D4/Friday to D6/Sunday. Beyond Day 6, anomalous troughing is forecast to develop across the Northeast with strong high pressure building into the Plains. This would result in a southward cold frontal surge and a lull in severe weather chances early next week. ...Day 4/Friday to Day 6/Sunday... Mid-level ridging will build across the Plains on D4/Friday and D5/Saturday. Moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop across Texas and Oklahoma as upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints advect northward. A warm front will likely set up somewhere in the northern Oklahoma to central Kansas vicinity as weak lee cyclogenesis occurs near the TX/OK Panhandle. Nocturnal increases in the low-level jet will likely result in convection north of this warm front each night with sufficient shear and instability for some severe storms. Storm development farther south along the dryline remains more questionable due to the weak synoptic scale forcing. Severe weather probabilities will likely be needed eventually across portions of the central/southern Plains, but details remain too nebulous for 15% probabilities at this time. Read more

SPC May 20, 2025 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

2 months 3 weeks ago
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Tue May 20 2025 Valid 231200Z - 281200Z ...DISCUSSION... Strong to severe storms are possible across the southern Plains D4/Friday to D6/Sunday. Beyond Day 6, anomalous troughing is forecast to develop across the Northeast with strong high pressure building into the Plains. This would result in a southward cold frontal surge and a lull in severe weather chances early next week. ...Day 4/Friday to Day 6/Sunday... Mid-level ridging will build across the Plains on D4/Friday and D5/Saturday. Moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop across Texas and Oklahoma as upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints advect northward. A warm front will likely set up somewhere in the northern Oklahoma to central Kansas vicinity as weak lee cyclogenesis occurs near the TX/OK Panhandle. Nocturnal increases in the low-level jet will likely result in convection north of this warm front each night with sufficient shear and instability for some severe storms. Storm development farther south along the dryline remains more questionable due to the weak synoptic scale forcing. Severe weather probabilities will likely be needed eventually across portions of the central/southern Plains, but details remain too nebulous for 15% probabilities at this time. Read more

SPC May 20, 2025 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

2 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Tue May 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms are possible across portions of northwest Texas into southwest Oklahoma on Thursday. ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging is forecast to strengthen somewhat across the central High Plains on Thursday. Low-level southeasterly flow will strengthen across the Plains during the period as lee troughing begins across the High Plains. A dryline will sharpen through the period and may be a focus for strong to severe storms on Thursday afternoon/evening. ...Northwest Texas into Southwest Oklahoma... Strong heating is expected across the southern High Plains on Thursday with weak upslope flow. While large-scale forcing should remain weak with neutral height tendencies, this weak upslope flow, combined with a dryline circulation, may be sufficient for a few strong to severe storms within in uncapped airmass. Storms will be most likely across northwest Texas where upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints should be present east of the dryline with temperatures forecast in the upper 90s west of the dryline. Modest west-northwesterly flow aloft should provide moderate shear, which will support supercells. Supercell mode and relatively high-based storms should support a primary threat of isolated large hail and severe wind gusts. ...Central High Plains... Additional upslope thunderstorms may develop across portions of eastern Colorado, but uncertainties in moisture recovery cast doubts on storm coverage. Therefore, a marginal risk is not warranted at this time. ..Bentley.. 05/20/2025 Read more

SPC May 20, 2025 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

2 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Tue May 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms are possible across portions of northwest Texas into southwest Oklahoma on Thursday. ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging is forecast to strengthen somewhat across the central High Plains on Thursday. Low-level southeasterly flow will strengthen across the Plains during the period as lee troughing begins across the High Plains. A dryline will sharpen through the period and may be a focus for strong to severe storms on Thursday afternoon/evening. ...Northwest Texas into Southwest Oklahoma... Strong heating is expected across the southern High Plains on Thursday with weak upslope flow. While large-scale forcing should remain weak with neutral height tendencies, this weak upslope flow, combined with a dryline circulation, may be sufficient for a few strong to severe storms within in uncapped airmass. Storms will be most likely across northwest Texas where upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints should be present east of the dryline with temperatures forecast in the upper 90s west of the dryline. Modest west-northwesterly flow aloft should provide moderate shear, which will support supercells. Supercell mode and relatively high-based storms should support a primary threat of isolated large hail and severe wind gusts. ...Central High Plains... Additional upslope thunderstorms may develop across portions of eastern Colorado, but uncertainties in moisture recovery cast doubts on storm coverage. Therefore, a marginal risk is not warranted at this time. ..Bentley.. 05/20/2025 Read more

SPC May 20, 2025 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

2 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Tue May 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms are possible across portions of northwest Texas into southwest Oklahoma on Thursday. ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging is forecast to strengthen somewhat across the central High Plains on Thursday. Low-level southeasterly flow will strengthen across the Plains during the period as lee troughing begins across the High Plains. A dryline will sharpen through the period and may be a focus for strong to severe storms on Thursday afternoon/evening. ...Northwest Texas into Southwest Oklahoma... Strong heating is expected across the southern High Plains on Thursday with weak upslope flow. While large-scale forcing should remain weak with neutral height tendencies, this weak upslope flow, combined with a dryline circulation, may be sufficient for a few strong to severe storms within in uncapped airmass. Storms will be most likely across northwest Texas where upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints should be present east of the dryline with temperatures forecast in the upper 90s west of the dryline. Modest west-northwesterly flow aloft should provide moderate shear, which will support supercells. Supercell mode and relatively high-based storms should support a primary threat of isolated large hail and severe wind gusts. ...Central High Plains... Additional upslope thunderstorms may develop across portions of eastern Colorado, but uncertainties in moisture recovery cast doubts on storm coverage. Therefore, a marginal risk is not warranted at this time. ..Bentley.. 05/20/2025 Read more

SPC May 20, 2025 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

2 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Tue May 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms are possible across portions of northwest Texas into southwest Oklahoma on Thursday. ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging is forecast to strengthen somewhat across the central High Plains on Thursday. Low-level southeasterly flow will strengthen across the Plains during the period as lee troughing begins across the High Plains. A dryline will sharpen through the period and may be a focus for strong to severe storms on Thursday afternoon/evening. ...Northwest Texas into Southwest Oklahoma... Strong heating is expected across the southern High Plains on Thursday with weak upslope flow. While large-scale forcing should remain weak with neutral height tendencies, this weak upslope flow, combined with a dryline circulation, may be sufficient for a few strong to severe storms within in uncapped airmass. Storms will be most likely across northwest Texas where upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints should be present east of the dryline with temperatures forecast in the upper 90s west of the dryline. Modest west-northwesterly flow aloft should provide moderate shear, which will support supercells. Supercell mode and relatively high-based storms should support a primary threat of isolated large hail and severe wind gusts. ...Central High Plains... Additional upslope thunderstorms may develop across portions of eastern Colorado, but uncertainties in moisture recovery cast doubts on storm coverage. Therefore, a marginal risk is not warranted at this time. ..Bentley.. 05/20/2025 Read more