SPC May 19, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

2 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe storms are possible Wednesday mainly across parts of North Carolina and nearby parts of southern Virginia and/or eastern South Carolina. ...Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic/Southeast States... Within the base of the Great Lakes-centered upper trough, strong westerlies aloft will exist over the Carolinas, central/southern Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic States on Wednesday. Scattered thunderstorms will likely be ongoing in the morning, potentially complexifying the details of where the north/south extent of most-favorable severe storm ingredients will materialize. However, severe-weather potential currently seems most likely to set up across North Carolina and possibly southern Virginia in vicinity of the warm front and a weak surface wave. A semi-focused corridor of supercell/severe-storm potential could materialize with hail/damaging wind and tornado potential. Slight Risk-caliber severe probabilities are plausible into the Day 2 or Day 1 time frame as forecast details are refined. Other more isolated severe storms may occur through the afternoon with southwestward extent along the southeastward-advancing cold front into southeast Georgia and northern Florida, where moderate buoyancy is expected coincident with the southern edge of stronger westerlies aloft. ..Guyer.. 05/19/2025 Read more

SPC May 19, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

2 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe storms are possible Wednesday mainly across parts of North Carolina and nearby parts of southern Virginia and/or eastern South Carolina. ...Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic/Southeast States... Within the base of the Great Lakes-centered upper trough, strong westerlies aloft will exist over the Carolinas, central/southern Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic States on Wednesday. Scattered thunderstorms will likely be ongoing in the morning, potentially complexifying the details of where the north/south extent of most-favorable severe storm ingredients will materialize. However, severe-weather potential currently seems most likely to set up across North Carolina and possibly southern Virginia in vicinity of the warm front and a weak surface wave. A semi-focused corridor of supercell/severe-storm potential could materialize with hail/damaging wind and tornado potential. Slight Risk-caliber severe probabilities are plausible into the Day 2 or Day 1 time frame as forecast details are refined. Other more isolated severe storms may occur through the afternoon with southwestward extent along the southeastward-advancing cold front into southeast Georgia and northern Florida, where moderate buoyancy is expected coincident with the southern edge of stronger westerlies aloft. ..Guyer.. 05/19/2025 Read more

SPC May 19, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

2 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe storms are possible Wednesday mainly across parts of North Carolina and nearby parts of southern Virginia and/or eastern South Carolina. ...Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic/Southeast States... Within the base of the Great Lakes-centered upper trough, strong westerlies aloft will exist over the Carolinas, central/southern Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic States on Wednesday. Scattered thunderstorms will likely be ongoing in the morning, potentially complexifying the details of where the north/south extent of most-favorable severe storm ingredients will materialize. However, severe-weather potential currently seems most likely to set up across North Carolina and possibly southern Virginia in vicinity of the warm front and a weak surface wave. A semi-focused corridor of supercell/severe-storm potential could materialize with hail/damaging wind and tornado potential. Slight Risk-caliber severe probabilities are plausible into the Day 2 or Day 1 time frame as forecast details are refined. Other more isolated severe storms may occur through the afternoon with southwestward extent along the southeastward-advancing cold front into southeast Georgia and northern Florida, where moderate buoyancy is expected coincident with the southern edge of stronger westerlies aloft. ..Guyer.. 05/19/2025 Read more

SPC May 19, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

2 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe storms are possible Wednesday mainly across parts of North Carolina and nearby parts of southern Virginia and/or eastern South Carolina. ...Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic/Southeast States... Within the base of the Great Lakes-centered upper trough, strong westerlies aloft will exist over the Carolinas, central/southern Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic States on Wednesday. Scattered thunderstorms will likely be ongoing in the morning, potentially complexifying the details of where the north/south extent of most-favorable severe storm ingredients will materialize. However, severe-weather potential currently seems most likely to set up across North Carolina and possibly southern Virginia in vicinity of the warm front and a weak surface wave. A semi-focused corridor of supercell/severe-storm potential could materialize with hail/damaging wind and tornado potential. Slight Risk-caliber severe probabilities are plausible into the Day 2 or Day 1 time frame as forecast details are refined. Other more isolated severe storms may occur through the afternoon with southwestward extent along the southeastward-advancing cold front into southeast Georgia and northern Florida, where moderate buoyancy is expected coincident with the southern edge of stronger westerlies aloft. ..Guyer.. 05/19/2025 Read more

SPC May 19, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

2 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe storms are possible Wednesday mainly across parts of North Carolina and nearby parts of southern Virginia and/or eastern South Carolina. ...Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic/Southeast States... Within the base of the Great Lakes-centered upper trough, strong westerlies aloft will exist over the Carolinas, central/southern Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic States on Wednesday. Scattered thunderstorms will likely be ongoing in the morning, potentially complexifying the details of where the north/south extent of most-favorable severe storm ingredients will materialize. However, severe-weather potential currently seems most likely to set up across North Carolina and possibly southern Virginia in vicinity of the warm front and a weak surface wave. A semi-focused corridor of supercell/severe-storm potential could materialize with hail/damaging wind and tornado potential. Slight Risk-caliber severe probabilities are plausible into the Day 2 or Day 1 time frame as forecast details are refined. Other more isolated severe storms may occur through the afternoon with southwestward extent along the southeastward-advancing cold front into southeast Georgia and northern Florida, where moderate buoyancy is expected coincident with the southern edge of stronger westerlies aloft. ..Guyer.. 05/19/2025 Read more

SPC May 19, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

2 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe storms are possible Wednesday mainly across parts of North Carolina and nearby parts of southern Virginia and/or eastern South Carolina. ...Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic/Southeast States... Within the base of the Great Lakes-centered upper trough, strong westerlies aloft will exist over the Carolinas, central/southern Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic States on Wednesday. Scattered thunderstorms will likely be ongoing in the morning, potentially complexifying the details of where the north/south extent of most-favorable severe storm ingredients will materialize. However, severe-weather potential currently seems most likely to set up across North Carolina and possibly southern Virginia in vicinity of the warm front and a weak surface wave. A semi-focused corridor of supercell/severe-storm potential could materialize with hail/damaging wind and tornado potential. Slight Risk-caliber severe probabilities are plausible into the Day 2 or Day 1 time frame as forecast details are refined. Other more isolated severe storms may occur through the afternoon with southwestward extent along the southeastward-advancing cold front into southeast Georgia and northern Florida, where moderate buoyancy is expected coincident with the southern edge of stronger westerlies aloft. ..Guyer.. 05/19/2025 Read more

SPC May 19, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

2 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe storms are possible Wednesday mainly across parts of North Carolina and nearby parts of southern Virginia and/or eastern South Carolina. ...Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic/Southeast States... Within the base of the Great Lakes-centered upper trough, strong westerlies aloft will exist over the Carolinas, central/southern Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic States on Wednesday. Scattered thunderstorms will likely be ongoing in the morning, potentially complexifying the details of where the north/south extent of most-favorable severe storm ingredients will materialize. However, severe-weather potential currently seems most likely to set up across North Carolina and possibly southern Virginia in vicinity of the warm front and a weak surface wave. A semi-focused corridor of supercell/severe-storm potential could materialize with hail/damaging wind and tornado potential. Slight Risk-caliber severe probabilities are plausible into the Day 2 or Day 1 time frame as forecast details are refined. Other more isolated severe storms may occur through the afternoon with southwestward extent along the southeastward-advancing cold front into southeast Georgia and northern Florida, where moderate buoyancy is expected coincident with the southern edge of stronger westerlies aloft. ..Guyer.. 05/19/2025 Read more

SPC May 19, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

2 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe storms are possible Wednesday mainly across parts of North Carolina and nearby parts of southern Virginia and/or eastern South Carolina. ...Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic/Southeast States... Within the base of the Great Lakes-centered upper trough, strong westerlies aloft will exist over the Carolinas, central/southern Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic States on Wednesday. Scattered thunderstorms will likely be ongoing in the morning, potentially complexifying the details of where the north/south extent of most-favorable severe storm ingredients will materialize. However, severe-weather potential currently seems most likely to set up across North Carolina and possibly southern Virginia in vicinity of the warm front and a weak surface wave. A semi-focused corridor of supercell/severe-storm potential could materialize with hail/damaging wind and tornado potential. Slight Risk-caliber severe probabilities are plausible into the Day 2 or Day 1 time frame as forecast details are refined. Other more isolated severe storms may occur through the afternoon with southwestward extent along the southeastward-advancing cold front into southeast Georgia and northern Florida, where moderate buoyancy is expected coincident with the southern edge of stronger westerlies aloft. ..Guyer.. 05/19/2025 Read more

SPC May 19, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

2 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe storms are possible Wednesday mainly across parts of North Carolina and nearby parts of southern Virginia and/or eastern South Carolina. ...Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic/Southeast States... Within the base of the Great Lakes-centered upper trough, strong westerlies aloft will exist over the Carolinas, central/southern Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic States on Wednesday. Scattered thunderstorms will likely be ongoing in the morning, potentially complexifying the details of where the north/south extent of most-favorable severe storm ingredients will materialize. However, severe-weather potential currently seems most likely to set up across North Carolina and possibly southern Virginia in vicinity of the warm front and a weak surface wave. A semi-focused corridor of supercell/severe-storm potential could materialize with hail/damaging wind and tornado potential. Slight Risk-caliber severe probabilities are plausible into the Day 2 or Day 1 time frame as forecast details are refined. Other more isolated severe storms may occur through the afternoon with southwestward extent along the southeastward-advancing cold front into southeast Georgia and northern Florida, where moderate buoyancy is expected coincident with the southern edge of stronger westerlies aloft. ..Guyer.. 05/19/2025 Read more

SPC MD 876

2 months 3 weeks ago
MD 0876 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 0876 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Areas affected...Eastern Nebraska Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 191737Z - 191930Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing across south-central Nebraska will likely intensify over the next few hours as they spread east/northeast into a destabilizing air mass. Watch issuance is possible. DISCUSSION...Shallow convection is beginning to deepen along a confluence axis to the north of a surface low along the NE/KS border. Early-morning cloud cover has delayed the onset of stronger diurnal warming, but clearing to the south of a diffuse warm frontal zone and ahead of a dryline is allowing temperatures to warm into the upper 70s and low 80s with MLCAPE quickly increasing to over 2000 J/kg per recent RAP mesoanalysis estimates. Clearing ahead of the developing convection coupled with increasing broad-scale ascent should support further deepening/intensification over the next couple of hours, and strong flow within the exit region of a mid-level jet will provide sufficient deep-layer shear for organized convection, including a few splitting supercells. Large hail should be the primary hazard given elongated hodographs and the potential for cells to quickly migrate onto the cool, more stable side of the frontal zone, but cells that can mature across southeastern NE within the clearing warm sector may pose some tornado threat. Convective trends will continue to be monitored and watch issuance is possible by mid-afternoon. ..Moore/Hart.. 05/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID... LAT...LON 40239835 40599851 40919862 41349855 41789825 42469755 42589704 42379660 41939625 41459616 41039626 40609668 40249720 40119750 40099796 40239835 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

2 months 3 weeks ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The main change made to the Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Update was to add Elevated highlights to portions of Minnesota. Here, deep-layer easterly flow north of both a surface low, and developing mid-level cyclone over the Midwest, will encourage dry and breezy conditions by afternoon. 15-20 mph sustained easterly surface winds will coincide with 20-30 percent RH as the boundary layer mixes, supporting elevated conditions atop fuels that are at least marginally supportive of wildfire spread. Across the rest of the CONUS, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 05/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... A large-scale trough will deamplify as it advances eastward into the eastern half of the CONUS on Tuesday. On the backside of this system, dry/breezy post-frontal conditions will develop across parts of the central Plains. However, preceding rainfall and a marginal spatial overlap of the breezy winds and low RH should limit the overall fire-weather risk. Broad/enhanced westerly flow will continue to support dry conditions across the Southwest into the southern High Plains, though surface winds will weaken compared to Monday, as the strongest midlevel flow shifts eastward with the midlevel trough. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

2 months 3 weeks ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The main change made to the Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Update was to add Elevated highlights to portions of Minnesota. Here, deep-layer easterly flow north of both a surface low, and developing mid-level cyclone over the Midwest, will encourage dry and breezy conditions by afternoon. 15-20 mph sustained easterly surface winds will coincide with 20-30 percent RH as the boundary layer mixes, supporting elevated conditions atop fuels that are at least marginally supportive of wildfire spread. Across the rest of the CONUS, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 05/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... A large-scale trough will deamplify as it advances eastward into the eastern half of the CONUS on Tuesday. On the backside of this system, dry/breezy post-frontal conditions will develop across parts of the central Plains. However, preceding rainfall and a marginal spatial overlap of the breezy winds and low RH should limit the overall fire-weather risk. Broad/enhanced westerly flow will continue to support dry conditions across the Southwest into the southern High Plains, though surface winds will weaken compared to Monday, as the strongest midlevel flow shifts eastward with the midlevel trough. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

2 months 3 weeks ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The main change made to the Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Update was to add Elevated highlights to portions of Minnesota. Here, deep-layer easterly flow north of both a surface low, and developing mid-level cyclone over the Midwest, will encourage dry and breezy conditions by afternoon. 15-20 mph sustained easterly surface winds will coincide with 20-30 percent RH as the boundary layer mixes, supporting elevated conditions atop fuels that are at least marginally supportive of wildfire spread. Across the rest of the CONUS, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 05/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... A large-scale trough will deamplify as it advances eastward into the eastern half of the CONUS on Tuesday. On the backside of this system, dry/breezy post-frontal conditions will develop across parts of the central Plains. However, preceding rainfall and a marginal spatial overlap of the breezy winds and low RH should limit the overall fire-weather risk. Broad/enhanced westerly flow will continue to support dry conditions across the Southwest into the southern High Plains, though surface winds will weaken compared to Monday, as the strongest midlevel flow shifts eastward with the midlevel trough. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

2 months 3 weeks ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The main change made to the Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Update was to add Elevated highlights to portions of Minnesota. Here, deep-layer easterly flow north of both a surface low, and developing mid-level cyclone over the Midwest, will encourage dry and breezy conditions by afternoon. 15-20 mph sustained easterly surface winds will coincide with 20-30 percent RH as the boundary layer mixes, supporting elevated conditions atop fuels that are at least marginally supportive of wildfire spread. Across the rest of the CONUS, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 05/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... A large-scale trough will deamplify as it advances eastward into the eastern half of the CONUS on Tuesday. On the backside of this system, dry/breezy post-frontal conditions will develop across parts of the central Plains. However, preceding rainfall and a marginal spatial overlap of the breezy winds and low RH should limit the overall fire-weather risk. Broad/enhanced westerly flow will continue to support dry conditions across the Southwest into the southern High Plains, though surface winds will weaken compared to Monday, as the strongest midlevel flow shifts eastward with the midlevel trough. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

2 months 3 weeks ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The main change made to the Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Update was to add Elevated highlights to portions of Minnesota. Here, deep-layer easterly flow north of both a surface low, and developing mid-level cyclone over the Midwest, will encourage dry and breezy conditions by afternoon. 15-20 mph sustained easterly surface winds will coincide with 20-30 percent RH as the boundary layer mixes, supporting elevated conditions atop fuels that are at least marginally supportive of wildfire spread. Across the rest of the CONUS, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 05/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... A large-scale trough will deamplify as it advances eastward into the eastern half of the CONUS on Tuesday. On the backside of this system, dry/breezy post-frontal conditions will develop across parts of the central Plains. However, preceding rainfall and a marginal spatial overlap of the breezy winds and low RH should limit the overall fire-weather risk. Broad/enhanced westerly flow will continue to support dry conditions across the Southwest into the southern High Plains, though surface winds will weaken compared to Monday, as the strongest midlevel flow shifts eastward with the midlevel trough. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

2 months 3 weeks ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The main change made to the Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Update was to add Elevated highlights to portions of Minnesota. Here, deep-layer easterly flow north of both a surface low, and developing mid-level cyclone over the Midwest, will encourage dry and breezy conditions by afternoon. 15-20 mph sustained easterly surface winds will coincide with 20-30 percent RH as the boundary layer mixes, supporting elevated conditions atop fuels that are at least marginally supportive of wildfire spread. Across the rest of the CONUS, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 05/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... A large-scale trough will deamplify as it advances eastward into the eastern half of the CONUS on Tuesday. On the backside of this system, dry/breezy post-frontal conditions will develop across parts of the central Plains. However, preceding rainfall and a marginal spatial overlap of the breezy winds and low RH should limit the overall fire-weather risk. Broad/enhanced westerly flow will continue to support dry conditions across the Southwest into the southern High Plains, though surface winds will weaken compared to Monday, as the strongest midlevel flow shifts eastward with the midlevel trough. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

2 months 3 weeks ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The main change made to the Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Update was to add Elevated highlights to portions of Minnesota. Here, deep-layer easterly flow north of both a surface low, and developing mid-level cyclone over the Midwest, will encourage dry and breezy conditions by afternoon. 15-20 mph sustained easterly surface winds will coincide with 20-30 percent RH as the boundary layer mixes, supporting elevated conditions atop fuels that are at least marginally supportive of wildfire spread. Across the rest of the CONUS, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 05/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... A large-scale trough will deamplify as it advances eastward into the eastern half of the CONUS on Tuesday. On the backside of this system, dry/breezy post-frontal conditions will develop across parts of the central Plains. However, preceding rainfall and a marginal spatial overlap of the breezy winds and low RH should limit the overall fire-weather risk. Broad/enhanced westerly flow will continue to support dry conditions across the Southwest into the southern High Plains, though surface winds will weaken compared to Monday, as the strongest midlevel flow shifts eastward with the midlevel trough. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

2 months 3 weeks ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The main change made to the Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Update was to add Elevated highlights to portions of Minnesota. Here, deep-layer easterly flow north of both a surface low, and developing mid-level cyclone over the Midwest, will encourage dry and breezy conditions by afternoon. 15-20 mph sustained easterly surface winds will coincide with 20-30 percent RH as the boundary layer mixes, supporting elevated conditions atop fuels that are at least marginally supportive of wildfire spread. Across the rest of the CONUS, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 05/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... A large-scale trough will deamplify as it advances eastward into the eastern half of the CONUS on Tuesday. On the backside of this system, dry/breezy post-frontal conditions will develop across parts of the central Plains. However, preceding rainfall and a marginal spatial overlap of the breezy winds and low RH should limit the overall fire-weather risk. Broad/enhanced westerly flow will continue to support dry conditions across the Southwest into the southern High Plains, though surface winds will weaken compared to Monday, as the strongest midlevel flow shifts eastward with the midlevel trough. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more