SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

2 months 3 weeks ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The main change made to the Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Update was to add Elevated highlights to portions of Minnesota. Here, deep-layer easterly flow north of both a surface low, and developing mid-level cyclone over the Midwest, will encourage dry and breezy conditions by afternoon. 15-20 mph sustained easterly surface winds will coincide with 20-30 percent RH as the boundary layer mixes, supporting elevated conditions atop fuels that are at least marginally supportive of wildfire spread. Across the rest of the CONUS, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 05/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... A large-scale trough will deamplify as it advances eastward into the eastern half of the CONUS on Tuesday. On the backside of this system, dry/breezy post-frontal conditions will develop across parts of the central Plains. However, preceding rainfall and a marginal spatial overlap of the breezy winds and low RH should limit the overall fire-weather risk. Broad/enhanced westerly flow will continue to support dry conditions across the Southwest into the southern High Plains, though surface winds will weaken compared to Monday, as the strongest midlevel flow shifts eastward with the midlevel trough. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

2 months 3 weeks ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The main change made to the Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Update was to add Elevated highlights to portions of Minnesota. Here, deep-layer easterly flow north of both a surface low, and developing mid-level cyclone over the Midwest, will encourage dry and breezy conditions by afternoon. 15-20 mph sustained easterly surface winds will coincide with 20-30 percent RH as the boundary layer mixes, supporting elevated conditions atop fuels that are at least marginally supportive of wildfire spread. Across the rest of the CONUS, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 05/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... A large-scale trough will deamplify as it advances eastward into the eastern half of the CONUS on Tuesday. On the backside of this system, dry/breezy post-frontal conditions will develop across parts of the central Plains. However, preceding rainfall and a marginal spatial overlap of the breezy winds and low RH should limit the overall fire-weather risk. Broad/enhanced westerly flow will continue to support dry conditions across the Southwest into the southern High Plains, though surface winds will weaken compared to Monday, as the strongest midlevel flow shifts eastward with the midlevel trough. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

2 months 3 weeks ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The main change made to the Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Update was to add Elevated highlights to portions of Minnesota. Here, deep-layer easterly flow north of both a surface low, and developing mid-level cyclone over the Midwest, will encourage dry and breezy conditions by afternoon. 15-20 mph sustained easterly surface winds will coincide with 20-30 percent RH as the boundary layer mixes, supporting elevated conditions atop fuels that are at least marginally supportive of wildfire spread. Across the rest of the CONUS, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 05/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... A large-scale trough will deamplify as it advances eastward into the eastern half of the CONUS on Tuesday. On the backside of this system, dry/breezy post-frontal conditions will develop across parts of the central Plains. However, preceding rainfall and a marginal spatial overlap of the breezy winds and low RH should limit the overall fire-weather risk. Broad/enhanced westerly flow will continue to support dry conditions across the Southwest into the southern High Plains, though surface winds will weaken compared to Monday, as the strongest midlevel flow shifts eastward with the midlevel trough. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

2 months 3 weeks ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The main change made to the Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Update was to add Elevated highlights to portions of Minnesota. Here, deep-layer easterly flow north of both a surface low, and developing mid-level cyclone over the Midwest, will encourage dry and breezy conditions by afternoon. 15-20 mph sustained easterly surface winds will coincide with 20-30 percent RH as the boundary layer mixes, supporting elevated conditions atop fuels that are at least marginally supportive of wildfire spread. Across the rest of the CONUS, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 05/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... A large-scale trough will deamplify as it advances eastward into the eastern half of the CONUS on Tuesday. On the backside of this system, dry/breezy post-frontal conditions will develop across parts of the central Plains. However, preceding rainfall and a marginal spatial overlap of the breezy winds and low RH should limit the overall fire-weather risk. Broad/enhanced westerly flow will continue to support dry conditions across the Southwest into the southern High Plains, though surface winds will weaken compared to Monday, as the strongest midlevel flow shifts eastward with the midlevel trough. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

2 months 3 weeks ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The main change made to the Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Update was to add Elevated highlights to portions of Minnesota. Here, deep-layer easterly flow north of both a surface low, and developing mid-level cyclone over the Midwest, will encourage dry and breezy conditions by afternoon. 15-20 mph sustained easterly surface winds will coincide with 20-30 percent RH as the boundary layer mixes, supporting elevated conditions atop fuels that are at least marginally supportive of wildfire spread. Across the rest of the CONUS, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 05/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... A large-scale trough will deamplify as it advances eastward into the eastern half of the CONUS on Tuesday. On the backside of this system, dry/breezy post-frontal conditions will develop across parts of the central Plains. However, preceding rainfall and a marginal spatial overlap of the breezy winds and low RH should limit the overall fire-weather risk. Broad/enhanced westerly flow will continue to support dry conditions across the Southwest into the southern High Plains, though surface winds will weaken compared to Monday, as the strongest midlevel flow shifts eastward with the midlevel trough. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

2 months 3 weeks ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The main change made to the Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Update was to add Elevated highlights to portions of Minnesota. Here, deep-layer easterly flow north of both a surface low, and developing mid-level cyclone over the Midwest, will encourage dry and breezy conditions by afternoon. 15-20 mph sustained easterly surface winds will coincide with 20-30 percent RH as the boundary layer mixes, supporting elevated conditions atop fuels that are at least marginally supportive of wildfire spread. Across the rest of the CONUS, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 05/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... A large-scale trough will deamplify as it advances eastward into the eastern half of the CONUS on Tuesday. On the backside of this system, dry/breezy post-frontal conditions will develop across parts of the central Plains. However, preceding rainfall and a marginal spatial overlap of the breezy winds and low RH should limit the overall fire-weather risk. Broad/enhanced westerly flow will continue to support dry conditions across the Southwest into the southern High Plains, though surface winds will weaken compared to Monday, as the strongest midlevel flow shifts eastward with the midlevel trough. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

2 months 3 weeks ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The main change made to the Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Update was to add Elevated highlights to portions of Minnesota. Here, deep-layer easterly flow north of both a surface low, and developing mid-level cyclone over the Midwest, will encourage dry and breezy conditions by afternoon. 15-20 mph sustained easterly surface winds will coincide with 20-30 percent RH as the boundary layer mixes, supporting elevated conditions atop fuels that are at least marginally supportive of wildfire spread. Across the rest of the CONUS, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 05/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... A large-scale trough will deamplify as it advances eastward into the eastern half of the CONUS on Tuesday. On the backside of this system, dry/breezy post-frontal conditions will develop across parts of the central Plains. However, preceding rainfall and a marginal spatial overlap of the breezy winds and low RH should limit the overall fire-weather risk. Broad/enhanced westerly flow will continue to support dry conditions across the Southwest into the southern High Plains, though surface winds will weaken compared to Monday, as the strongest midlevel flow shifts eastward with the midlevel trough. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

2 months 3 weeks ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The main change made to the Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Update was to add Elevated highlights to portions of Minnesota. Here, deep-layer easterly flow north of both a surface low, and developing mid-level cyclone over the Midwest, will encourage dry and breezy conditions by afternoon. 15-20 mph sustained easterly surface winds will coincide with 20-30 percent RH as the boundary layer mixes, supporting elevated conditions atop fuels that are at least marginally supportive of wildfire spread. Across the rest of the CONUS, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 05/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... A large-scale trough will deamplify as it advances eastward into the eastern half of the CONUS on Tuesday. On the backside of this system, dry/breezy post-frontal conditions will develop across parts of the central Plains. However, preceding rainfall and a marginal spatial overlap of the breezy winds and low RH should limit the overall fire-weather risk. Broad/enhanced westerly flow will continue to support dry conditions across the Southwest into the southern High Plains, though surface winds will weaken compared to Monday, as the strongest midlevel flow shifts eastward with the midlevel trough. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

2 months 3 weeks ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The main change made to the Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Update was to add Elevated highlights to portions of Minnesota. Here, deep-layer easterly flow north of both a surface low, and developing mid-level cyclone over the Midwest, will encourage dry and breezy conditions by afternoon. 15-20 mph sustained easterly surface winds will coincide with 20-30 percent RH as the boundary layer mixes, supporting elevated conditions atop fuels that are at least marginally supportive of wildfire spread. Across the rest of the CONUS, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 05/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... A large-scale trough will deamplify as it advances eastward into the eastern half of the CONUS on Tuesday. On the backside of this system, dry/breezy post-frontal conditions will develop across parts of the central Plains. However, preceding rainfall and a marginal spatial overlap of the breezy winds and low RH should limit the overall fire-weather risk. Broad/enhanced westerly flow will continue to support dry conditions across the Southwest into the southern High Plains, though surface winds will weaken compared to Monday, as the strongest midlevel flow shifts eastward with the midlevel trough. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

2 months 3 weeks ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The main change made to the Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Update was to add Elevated highlights to portions of Minnesota. Here, deep-layer easterly flow north of both a surface low, and developing mid-level cyclone over the Midwest, will encourage dry and breezy conditions by afternoon. 15-20 mph sustained easterly surface winds will coincide with 20-30 percent RH as the boundary layer mixes, supporting elevated conditions atop fuels that are at least marginally supportive of wildfire spread. Across the rest of the CONUS, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 05/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... A large-scale trough will deamplify as it advances eastward into the eastern half of the CONUS on Tuesday. On the backside of this system, dry/breezy post-frontal conditions will develop across parts of the central Plains. However, preceding rainfall and a marginal spatial overlap of the breezy winds and low RH should limit the overall fire-weather risk. Broad/enhanced westerly flow will continue to support dry conditions across the Southwest into the southern High Plains, though surface winds will weaken compared to Monday, as the strongest midlevel flow shifts eastward with the midlevel trough. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

2 months 3 weeks ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The main change made to the Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Update was to add Elevated highlights to portions of Minnesota. Here, deep-layer easterly flow north of both a surface low, and developing mid-level cyclone over the Midwest, will encourage dry and breezy conditions by afternoon. 15-20 mph sustained easterly surface winds will coincide with 20-30 percent RH as the boundary layer mixes, supporting elevated conditions atop fuels that are at least marginally supportive of wildfire spread. Across the rest of the CONUS, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 05/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... A large-scale trough will deamplify as it advances eastward into the eastern half of the CONUS on Tuesday. On the backside of this system, dry/breezy post-frontal conditions will develop across parts of the central Plains. However, preceding rainfall and a marginal spatial overlap of the breezy winds and low RH should limit the overall fire-weather risk. Broad/enhanced westerly flow will continue to support dry conditions across the Southwest into the southern High Plains, though surface winds will weaken compared to Monday, as the strongest midlevel flow shifts eastward with the midlevel trough. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

2 months 3 weeks ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The main change made to the Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Update was to add Elevated highlights to portions of Minnesota. Here, deep-layer easterly flow north of both a surface low, and developing mid-level cyclone over the Midwest, will encourage dry and breezy conditions by afternoon. 15-20 mph sustained easterly surface winds will coincide with 20-30 percent RH as the boundary layer mixes, supporting elevated conditions atop fuels that are at least marginally supportive of wildfire spread. Across the rest of the CONUS, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 05/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... A large-scale trough will deamplify as it advances eastward into the eastern half of the CONUS on Tuesday. On the backside of this system, dry/breezy post-frontal conditions will develop across parts of the central Plains. However, preceding rainfall and a marginal spatial overlap of the breezy winds and low RH should limit the overall fire-weather risk. Broad/enhanced westerly flow will continue to support dry conditions across the Southwest into the southern High Plains, though surface winds will weaken compared to Monday, as the strongest midlevel flow shifts eastward with the midlevel trough. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

2 months 3 weeks ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The main change made to the Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Update was to add Elevated highlights to portions of Minnesota. Here, deep-layer easterly flow north of both a surface low, and developing mid-level cyclone over the Midwest, will encourage dry and breezy conditions by afternoon. 15-20 mph sustained easterly surface winds will coincide with 20-30 percent RH as the boundary layer mixes, supporting elevated conditions atop fuels that are at least marginally supportive of wildfire spread. Across the rest of the CONUS, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 05/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... A large-scale trough will deamplify as it advances eastward into the eastern half of the CONUS on Tuesday. On the backside of this system, dry/breezy post-frontal conditions will develop across parts of the central Plains. However, preceding rainfall and a marginal spatial overlap of the breezy winds and low RH should limit the overall fire-weather risk. Broad/enhanced westerly flow will continue to support dry conditions across the Southwest into the southern High Plains, though surface winds will weaken compared to Monday, as the strongest midlevel flow shifts eastward with the midlevel trough. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC MD 875

2 months 3 weeks ago
MD 0875 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0875 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Areas affected...central Oklahoma into south central Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 191612Z - 191845Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...A few rapidly developing and intensifying supercells appear possible as early as 1-3 PM CDT, accompanied by a risk for large to giant hail and a strong tornado or two. DISCUSSION...Convergence along the dryline appears at least initially weak, and it is not clear how much this will change as it gradually mixes eastward toward the Interstate 35 corridor through 18-20Z. However, deepening convection is evident to the south and southeast of Chickasha OK, which appears rooted within a corridor of stronger warm advection around the 850 mb level. It appears that this may persist and perhaps develop northward into early/mid afternoon, along the western periphery of a 30-40 kt southerly 850 mb jet. At the same time, it appears that at least modest mid-level height falls will begin to overspread the I-35 corridor, coincident with continuing insolation and warming of a seasonably moist boundary layer. A corridor along and east of the dryline is forecast to become characterized by large CAPE on the order of 2000-4000+ J/kg. As the initially elevated convection begins to acquire increasing updraft inflow emanating from the unstable boundary-layer, and inhibition weakens, rapid thunderstorm intensification appears possible. In the presence of west-southwesterly deep-layer shear, this probably will include at least a couple of evolving supercells with potential to produce large to giant hail, along with a risk for a strong tornado. ..Kerr/Hart.. 05/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 36709756 37379681 37459587 36529514 35419585 34209680 33899724 34159790 35359788 36709756 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...4.00+ IN Read more

Large wildfire in eastern Arizona

2 months 3 weeks ago
A wildfire in eastern Arizona has burned more than 19,000 acres since it began on Tuesday, May 13. The blaze was uncontained on Sunday as drought and strong winds made firefighting difficult. KOAT 7 Action News (Albuquerque, N.M.), May 18, 2025

SPC May 19, 2025 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

2 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH AND TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely across portions of the Mid-South, Tennessee Valley, and lower Ohio River Valley on Tuesday, including damaging winds and tornadoes, a few of which could be strong. ...Mid-South and Tennessee/Lower Ohio Valleys... Residual thunderstorms and associated cloud cover are expected to be ongoing across the Mid-South to lower Ohio Valley Tuesday morning, with the early day extensiveness of these storms, and related outflow/differential heating, to be key factors, and points of uncertainty, regarding later-day severe potential. This will especially be the case with northward extent toward the Ohio River and northern parts of the Cumberland Plateau. On the south/southwest edge of this early day activity, relatively rapid air mass recovery and destabilization can be expected, owing to sustained low-level moisture transport from the southwest in tandem with cloud breaks and an advancing mid-level dry slot. This will be as an upper low shifts northeastward over the middle Missouri Valley and Upper Midwest, with a cyclonically curved mid/upper-level jet streak overspreading the warm sector, which could be convectively contaminated near/north of the Ohio River. At least moderate buoyancy is forecast to develop across the unperturbed and weakly capped warm sector by early afternoon. It should be noted that multiple sub-regional areas, particularly across central/eastern portions of Kentucky and Tennessee, could receive multiple repeat-rounds of severe storms on Tuesday. Thunderstorm development will likely occur rather early in the afternoon as inhibition will be quickly eroded and dynamic forcing for ascent overspreads the warm sector. Very favorable supercell wind profiles will exist across most of the region via the mid-level jet and a diurnally sustained 30+ kt low-level jet. Initial supercells will pose a threat for all severe weather hazards including the potential for strong tornadoes, but a mixed convective mode should evolve as upscale growth occurs into multiple clusters. Relatively widespread damaging winds, along with a continued mixed-mode tornado potential, may occur by late afternoon and evening as storms spread east-southeastward toward the Appalachians vicinity. ...Carolinas and far southern Virginia... Weak height falls will begin to influence the region by late in the day with a warm front beginning to shift northward across the region. At least a conditional or isolated potential for severe storms including supercells will exist near the warm front and within the immediately adjacent warm sector. ..Guyer.. 05/19/2025 Read more

SPC May 19, 2025 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

2 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH AND TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely across portions of the Mid-South, Tennessee Valley, and lower Ohio River Valley on Tuesday, including damaging winds and tornadoes, a few of which could be strong. ...Mid-South and Tennessee/Lower Ohio Valleys... Residual thunderstorms and associated cloud cover are expected to be ongoing across the Mid-South to lower Ohio Valley Tuesday morning, with the early day extensiveness of these storms, and related outflow/differential heating, to be key factors, and points of uncertainty, regarding later-day severe potential. This will especially be the case with northward extent toward the Ohio River and northern parts of the Cumberland Plateau. On the south/southwest edge of this early day activity, relatively rapid air mass recovery and destabilization can be expected, owing to sustained low-level moisture transport from the southwest in tandem with cloud breaks and an advancing mid-level dry slot. This will be as an upper low shifts northeastward over the middle Missouri Valley and Upper Midwest, with a cyclonically curved mid/upper-level jet streak overspreading the warm sector, which could be convectively contaminated near/north of the Ohio River. At least moderate buoyancy is forecast to develop across the unperturbed and weakly capped warm sector by early afternoon. It should be noted that multiple sub-regional areas, particularly across central/eastern portions of Kentucky and Tennessee, could receive multiple repeat-rounds of severe storms on Tuesday. Thunderstorm development will likely occur rather early in the afternoon as inhibition will be quickly eroded and dynamic forcing for ascent overspreads the warm sector. Very favorable supercell wind profiles will exist across most of the region via the mid-level jet and a diurnally sustained 30+ kt low-level jet. Initial supercells will pose a threat for all severe weather hazards including the potential for strong tornadoes, but a mixed convective mode should evolve as upscale growth occurs into multiple clusters. Relatively widespread damaging winds, along with a continued mixed-mode tornado potential, may occur by late afternoon and evening as storms spread east-southeastward toward the Appalachians vicinity. ...Carolinas and far southern Virginia... Weak height falls will begin to influence the region by late in the day with a warm front beginning to shift northward across the region. At least a conditional or isolated potential for severe storms including supercells will exist near the warm front and within the immediately adjacent warm sector. ..Guyer.. 05/19/2025 Read more

SPC May 19, 2025 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

2 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH AND TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely across portions of the Mid-South, Tennessee Valley, and lower Ohio River Valley on Tuesday, including damaging winds and tornadoes, a few of which could be strong. ...Mid-South and Tennessee/Lower Ohio Valleys... Residual thunderstorms and associated cloud cover are expected to be ongoing across the Mid-South to lower Ohio Valley Tuesday morning, with the early day extensiveness of these storms, and related outflow/differential heating, to be key factors, and points of uncertainty, regarding later-day severe potential. This will especially be the case with northward extent toward the Ohio River and northern parts of the Cumberland Plateau. On the south/southwest edge of this early day activity, relatively rapid air mass recovery and destabilization can be expected, owing to sustained low-level moisture transport from the southwest in tandem with cloud breaks and an advancing mid-level dry slot. This will be as an upper low shifts northeastward over the middle Missouri Valley and Upper Midwest, with a cyclonically curved mid/upper-level jet streak overspreading the warm sector, which could be convectively contaminated near/north of the Ohio River. At least moderate buoyancy is forecast to develop across the unperturbed and weakly capped warm sector by early afternoon. It should be noted that multiple sub-regional areas, particularly across central/eastern portions of Kentucky and Tennessee, could receive multiple repeat-rounds of severe storms on Tuesday. Thunderstorm development will likely occur rather early in the afternoon as inhibition will be quickly eroded and dynamic forcing for ascent overspreads the warm sector. Very favorable supercell wind profiles will exist across most of the region via the mid-level jet and a diurnally sustained 30+ kt low-level jet. Initial supercells will pose a threat for all severe weather hazards including the potential for strong tornadoes, but a mixed convective mode should evolve as upscale growth occurs into multiple clusters. Relatively widespread damaging winds, along with a continued mixed-mode tornado potential, may occur by late afternoon and evening as storms spread east-southeastward toward the Appalachians vicinity. ...Carolinas and far southern Virginia... Weak height falls will begin to influence the region by late in the day with a warm front beginning to shift northward across the region. At least a conditional or isolated potential for severe storms including supercells will exist near the warm front and within the immediately adjacent warm sector. ..Guyer.. 05/19/2025 Read more