Aggregator

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH AND TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely across portions of the Mid-South, Tennessee Valley, and lower Ohio River Valley on Tuesday, including damaging winds and tornadoes, a few of which could be strong. ...Mid-South and Tennessee/Lower Ohio Valleys... Residual thunderstorms and associated cloud cover are expected to be ongoing across the Mid-South to lower Ohio Valley Tuesday morning, with the early day extensiveness of these storms, and related outflow/differential heating, to be key factors, and points of uncertainty, regarding later-day severe potential. This will especially be the case with northward extent toward the Ohio River and northern parts of the Cumberland Plateau. On the south/southwest edge of this early day activity, relatively rapid air mass recovery and destabilization can be expected, owing to sustained low-level moisture transport from the southwest in tandem with cloud breaks and an advancing mid-level dry slot. This will be as an upper low shifts northeastward over the middle Missouri Valley and Upper Midwest, with a cyclonically curved mid/upper-level jet streak overspreading the warm sector, which could be convectively contaminated near/north of the Ohio River. At least moderate buoyancy is forecast to develop across the unperturbed and weakly capped warm sector by early afternoon. It should be noted that multiple sub-regional areas, particularly across central/eastern portions of Kentucky and Tennessee, could receive multiple repeat-rounds of severe storms on Tuesday. Thunderstorm development will likely occur rather early in the afternoon as inhibition will be quickly eroded and dynamic forcing for ascent overspreads the warm sector. Very favorable supercell wind profiles will exist across most of the region via the mid-level jet and a diurnally sustained 30+ kt low-level jet. Initial supercells will pose a threat for all severe weather hazards including the potential for strong tornadoes, but a mixed convective mode should evolve as upscale growth occurs into multiple clusters. Relatively widespread damaging winds, along with a continued mixed-mode tornado potential, may occur by late afternoon and evening as storms spread east-southeastward toward the Appalachians vicinity. ...Carolinas and far southern Virginia... Weak height falls will begin to influence the region by late in the day with a warm front beginning to shift northward across the region. At least a conditional or isolated potential for severe storms including supercells will exist near the warm front and within the immediately adjacent warm sector. ..Guyer.. 05/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH AND TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely across portions of the Mid-South, Tennessee Valley, and lower Ohio River Valley on Tuesday, including damaging winds and tornadoes, a few of which could be strong. ...Mid-South and Tennessee/Lower Ohio Valleys... Residual thunderstorms and associated cloud cover are expected to be ongoing across the Mid-South to lower Ohio Valley Tuesday morning, with the early day extensiveness of these storms, and related outflow/differential heating, to be key factors, and points of uncertainty, regarding later-day severe potential. This will especially be the case with northward extent toward the Ohio River and northern parts of the Cumberland Plateau. On the south/southwest edge of this early day activity, relatively rapid air mass recovery and destabilization can be expected, owing to sustained low-level moisture transport from the southwest in tandem with cloud breaks and an advancing mid-level dry slot. This will be as an upper low shifts northeastward over the middle Missouri Valley and Upper Midwest, with a cyclonically curved mid/upper-level jet streak overspreading the warm sector, which could be convectively contaminated near/north of the Ohio River. At least moderate buoyancy is forecast to develop across the unperturbed and weakly capped warm sector by early afternoon. It should be noted that multiple sub-regional areas, particularly across central/eastern portions of Kentucky and Tennessee, could receive multiple repeat-rounds of severe storms on Tuesday. Thunderstorm development will likely occur rather early in the afternoon as inhibition will be quickly eroded and dynamic forcing for ascent overspreads the warm sector. Very favorable supercell wind profiles will exist across most of the region via the mid-level jet and a diurnally sustained 30+ kt low-level jet. Initial supercells will pose a threat for all severe weather hazards including the potential for strong tornadoes, but a mixed convective mode should evolve as upscale growth occurs into multiple clusters. Relatively widespread damaging winds, along with a continued mixed-mode tornado potential, may occur by late afternoon and evening as storms spread east-southeastward toward the Appalachians vicinity. ...Carolinas and far southern Virginia... Weak height falls will begin to influence the region by late in the day with a warm front beginning to shift northward across the region. At least a conditional or isolated potential for severe storms including supercells will exist near the warm front and within the immediately adjacent warm sector. ..Guyer.. 05/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH AND TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely across portions of the Mid-South, Tennessee Valley, and lower Ohio River Valley on Tuesday, including damaging winds and tornadoes, a few of which could be strong. ...Mid-South and Tennessee/Lower Ohio Valleys... Residual thunderstorms and associated cloud cover are expected to be ongoing across the Mid-South to lower Ohio Valley Tuesday morning, with the early day extensiveness of these storms, and related outflow/differential heating, to be key factors, and points of uncertainty, regarding later-day severe potential. This will especially be the case with northward extent toward the Ohio River and northern parts of the Cumberland Plateau. On the south/southwest edge of this early day activity, relatively rapid air mass recovery and destabilization can be expected, owing to sustained low-level moisture transport from the southwest in tandem with cloud breaks and an advancing mid-level dry slot. This will be as an upper low shifts northeastward over the middle Missouri Valley and Upper Midwest, with a cyclonically curved mid/upper-level jet streak overspreading the warm sector, which could be convectively contaminated near/north of the Ohio River. At least moderate buoyancy is forecast to develop across the unperturbed and weakly capped warm sector by early afternoon. It should be noted that multiple sub-regional areas, particularly across central/eastern portions of Kentucky and Tennessee, could receive multiple repeat-rounds of severe storms on Tuesday. Thunderstorm development will likely occur rather early in the afternoon as inhibition will be quickly eroded and dynamic forcing for ascent overspreads the warm sector. Very favorable supercell wind profiles will exist across most of the region via the mid-level jet and a diurnally sustained 30+ kt low-level jet. Initial supercells will pose a threat for all severe weather hazards including the potential for strong tornadoes, but a mixed convective mode should evolve as upscale growth occurs into multiple clusters. Relatively widespread damaging winds, along with a continued mixed-mode tornado potential, may occur by late afternoon and evening as storms spread east-southeastward toward the Appalachians vicinity. ...Carolinas and far southern Virginia... Weak height falls will begin to influence the region by late in the day with a warm front beginning to shift northward across the region. At least a conditional or isolated potential for severe storms including supercells will exist near the warm front and within the immediately adjacent warm sector. ..Guyer.. 05/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH AND TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely across portions of the Mid-South, Tennessee Valley, and lower Ohio River Valley on Tuesday, including damaging winds and tornadoes, a few of which could be strong. ...Mid-South and Tennessee/Lower Ohio Valleys... Residual thunderstorms and associated cloud cover are expected to be ongoing across the Mid-South to lower Ohio Valley Tuesday morning, with the early day extensiveness of these storms, and related outflow/differential heating, to be key factors, and points of uncertainty, regarding later-day severe potential. This will especially be the case with northward extent toward the Ohio River and northern parts of the Cumberland Plateau. On the south/southwest edge of this early day activity, relatively rapid air mass recovery and destabilization can be expected, owing to sustained low-level moisture transport from the southwest in tandem with cloud breaks and an advancing mid-level dry slot. This will be as an upper low shifts northeastward over the middle Missouri Valley and Upper Midwest, with a cyclonically curved mid/upper-level jet streak overspreading the warm sector, which could be convectively contaminated near/north of the Ohio River. At least moderate buoyancy is forecast to develop across the unperturbed and weakly capped warm sector by early afternoon. It should be noted that multiple sub-regional areas, particularly across central/eastern portions of Kentucky and Tennessee, could receive multiple repeat-rounds of severe storms on Tuesday. Thunderstorm development will likely occur rather early in the afternoon as inhibition will be quickly eroded and dynamic forcing for ascent overspreads the warm sector. Very favorable supercell wind profiles will exist across most of the region via the mid-level jet and a diurnally sustained 30+ kt low-level jet. Initial supercells will pose a threat for all severe weather hazards including the potential for strong tornadoes, but a mixed convective mode should evolve as upscale growth occurs into multiple clusters. Relatively widespread damaging winds, along with a continued mixed-mode tornado potential, may occur by late afternoon and evening as storms spread east-southeastward toward the Appalachians vicinity. ...Carolinas and far southern Virginia... Weak height falls will begin to influence the region by late in the day with a warm front beginning to shift northward across the region. At least a conditional or isolated potential for severe storms including supercells will exist near the warm front and within the immediately adjacent warm sector. ..Guyer.. 05/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH AND TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely across portions of the Mid-South, Tennessee Valley, and lower Ohio River Valley on Tuesday, including damaging winds and tornadoes, a few of which could be strong. ...Mid-South and Tennessee/Lower Ohio Valleys... Residual thunderstorms and associated cloud cover are expected to be ongoing across the Mid-South to lower Ohio Valley Tuesday morning, with the early day extensiveness of these storms, and related outflow/differential heating, to be key factors, and points of uncertainty, regarding later-day severe potential. This will especially be the case with northward extent toward the Ohio River and northern parts of the Cumberland Plateau. On the south/southwest edge of this early day activity, relatively rapid air mass recovery and destabilization can be expected, owing to sustained low-level moisture transport from the southwest in tandem with cloud breaks and an advancing mid-level dry slot. This will be as an upper low shifts northeastward over the middle Missouri Valley and Upper Midwest, with a cyclonically curved mid/upper-level jet streak overspreading the warm sector, which could be convectively contaminated near/north of the Ohio River. At least moderate buoyancy is forecast to develop across the unperturbed and weakly capped warm sector by early afternoon. It should be noted that multiple sub-regional areas, particularly across central/eastern portions of Kentucky and Tennessee, could receive multiple repeat-rounds of severe storms on Tuesday. Thunderstorm development will likely occur rather early in the afternoon as inhibition will be quickly eroded and dynamic forcing for ascent overspreads the warm sector. Very favorable supercell wind profiles will exist across most of the region via the mid-level jet and a diurnally sustained 30+ kt low-level jet. Initial supercells will pose a threat for all severe weather hazards including the potential for strong tornadoes, but a mixed convective mode should evolve as upscale growth occurs into multiple clusters. Relatively widespread damaging winds, along with a continued mixed-mode tornado potential, may occur by late afternoon and evening as storms spread east-southeastward toward the Appalachians vicinity. ...Carolinas and far southern Virginia... Weak height falls will begin to influence the region by late in the day with a warm front beginning to shift northward across the region. At least a conditional or isolated potential for severe storms including supercells will exist near the warm front and within the immediately adjacent warm sector. ..Guyer.. 05/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH AND TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely across portions of the Mid-South, Tennessee Valley, and lower Ohio River Valley on Tuesday, including damaging winds and tornadoes, a few of which could be strong. ...Mid-South and Tennessee/Lower Ohio Valleys... Residual thunderstorms and associated cloud cover are expected to be ongoing across the Mid-South to lower Ohio Valley Tuesday morning, with the early day extensiveness of these storms, and related outflow/differential heating, to be key factors, and points of uncertainty, regarding later-day severe potential. This will especially be the case with northward extent toward the Ohio River and northern parts of the Cumberland Plateau. On the south/southwest edge of this early day activity, relatively rapid air mass recovery and destabilization can be expected, owing to sustained low-level moisture transport from the southwest in tandem with cloud breaks and an advancing mid-level dry slot. This will be as an upper low shifts northeastward over the middle Missouri Valley and Upper Midwest, with a cyclonically curved mid/upper-level jet streak overspreading the warm sector, which could be convectively contaminated near/north of the Ohio River. At least moderate buoyancy is forecast to develop across the unperturbed and weakly capped warm sector by early afternoon. It should be noted that multiple sub-regional areas, particularly across central/eastern portions of Kentucky and Tennessee, could receive multiple repeat-rounds of severe storms on Tuesday. Thunderstorm development will likely occur rather early in the afternoon as inhibition will be quickly eroded and dynamic forcing for ascent overspreads the warm sector. Very favorable supercell wind profiles will exist across most of the region via the mid-level jet and a diurnally sustained 30+ kt low-level jet. Initial supercells will pose a threat for all severe weather hazards including the potential for strong tornadoes, but a mixed convective mode should evolve as upscale growth occurs into multiple clusters. Relatively widespread damaging winds, along with a continued mixed-mode tornado potential, may occur by late afternoon and evening as storms spread east-southeastward toward the Appalachians vicinity. ...Carolinas and far southern Virginia... Weak height falls will begin to influence the region by late in the day with a warm front beginning to shift northward across the region. At least a conditional or isolated potential for severe storms including supercells will exist near the warm front and within the immediately adjacent warm sector. ..Guyer.. 05/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH AND TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely across portions of the Mid-South, Tennessee Valley, and lower Ohio River Valley on Tuesday, including damaging winds and tornadoes, a few of which could be strong. ...Mid-South and Tennessee/Lower Ohio Valleys... Residual thunderstorms and associated cloud cover are expected to be ongoing across the Mid-South to lower Ohio Valley Tuesday morning, with the early day extensiveness of these storms, and related outflow/differential heating, to be key factors, and points of uncertainty, regarding later-day severe potential. This will especially be the case with northward extent toward the Ohio River and northern parts of the Cumberland Plateau. On the south/southwest edge of this early day activity, relatively rapid air mass recovery and destabilization can be expected, owing to sustained low-level moisture transport from the southwest in tandem with cloud breaks and an advancing mid-level dry slot. This will be as an upper low shifts northeastward over the middle Missouri Valley and Upper Midwest, with a cyclonically curved mid/upper-level jet streak overspreading the warm sector, which could be convectively contaminated near/north of the Ohio River. At least moderate buoyancy is forecast to develop across the unperturbed and weakly capped warm sector by early afternoon. It should be noted that multiple sub-regional areas, particularly across central/eastern portions of Kentucky and Tennessee, could receive multiple repeat-rounds of severe storms on Tuesday. Thunderstorm development will likely occur rather early in the afternoon as inhibition will be quickly eroded and dynamic forcing for ascent overspreads the warm sector. Very favorable supercell wind profiles will exist across most of the region via the mid-level jet and a diurnally sustained 30+ kt low-level jet. Initial supercells will pose a threat for all severe weather hazards including the potential for strong tornadoes, but a mixed convective mode should evolve as upscale growth occurs into multiple clusters. Relatively widespread damaging winds, along with a continued mixed-mode tornado potential, may occur by late afternoon and evening as storms spread east-southeastward toward the Appalachians vicinity. ...Carolinas and far southern Virginia... Weak height falls will begin to influence the region by late in the day with a warm front beginning to shift northward across the region. At least a conditional or isolated potential for severe storms including supercells will exist near the warm front and within the immediately adjacent warm sector. ..Guyer.. 05/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH AND TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely across portions of the Mid-South, Tennessee Valley, and lower Ohio River Valley on Tuesday, including damaging winds and tornadoes, a few of which could be strong. ...Mid-South and Tennessee/Lower Ohio Valleys... Residual thunderstorms and associated cloud cover are expected to be ongoing across the Mid-South to lower Ohio Valley Tuesday morning, with the early day extensiveness of these storms, and related outflow/differential heating, to be key factors, and points of uncertainty, regarding later-day severe potential. This will especially be the case with northward extent toward the Ohio River and northern parts of the Cumberland Plateau. On the south/southwest edge of this early day activity, relatively rapid air mass recovery and destabilization can be expected, owing to sustained low-level moisture transport from the southwest in tandem with cloud breaks and an advancing mid-level dry slot. This will be as an upper low shifts northeastward over the middle Missouri Valley and Upper Midwest, with a cyclonically curved mid/upper-level jet streak overspreading the warm sector, which could be convectively contaminated near/north of the Ohio River. At least moderate buoyancy is forecast to develop across the unperturbed and weakly capped warm sector by early afternoon. It should be noted that multiple sub-regional areas, particularly across central/eastern portions of Kentucky and Tennessee, could receive multiple repeat-rounds of severe storms on Tuesday. Thunderstorm development will likely occur rather early in the afternoon as inhibition will be quickly eroded and dynamic forcing for ascent overspreads the warm sector. Very favorable supercell wind profiles will exist across most of the region via the mid-level jet and a diurnally sustained 30+ kt low-level jet. Initial supercells will pose a threat for all severe weather hazards including the potential for strong tornadoes, but a mixed convective mode should evolve as upscale growth occurs into multiple clusters. Relatively widespread damaging winds, along with a continued mixed-mode tornado potential, may occur by late afternoon and evening as storms spread east-southeastward toward the Appalachians vicinity. ...Carolinas and far southern Virginia... Weak height falls will begin to influence the region by late in the day with a warm front beginning to shift northward across the region. At least a conditional or isolated potential for severe storms including supercells will exist near the warm front and within the immediately adjacent warm sector. ..Guyer.. 05/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH AND TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely across portions of the Mid-South, Tennessee Valley, and lower Ohio River Valley on Tuesday, including damaging winds and tornadoes, a few of which could be strong. ...Mid-South and Tennessee/Lower Ohio Valleys... Residual thunderstorms and associated cloud cover are expected to be ongoing across the Mid-South to lower Ohio Valley Tuesday morning, with the early day extensiveness of these storms, and related outflow/differential heating, to be key factors, and points of uncertainty, regarding later-day severe potential. This will especially be the case with northward extent toward the Ohio River and northern parts of the Cumberland Plateau. On the south/southwest edge of this early day activity, relatively rapid air mass recovery and destabilization can be expected, owing to sustained low-level moisture transport from the southwest in tandem with cloud breaks and an advancing mid-level dry slot. This will be as an upper low shifts northeastward over the middle Missouri Valley and Upper Midwest, with a cyclonically curved mid/upper-level jet streak overspreading the warm sector, which could be convectively contaminated near/north of the Ohio River. At least moderate buoyancy is forecast to develop across the unperturbed and weakly capped warm sector by early afternoon. It should be noted that multiple sub-regional areas, particularly across central/eastern portions of Kentucky and Tennessee, could receive multiple repeat-rounds of severe storms on Tuesday. Thunderstorm development will likely occur rather early in the afternoon as inhibition will be quickly eroded and dynamic forcing for ascent overspreads the warm sector. Very favorable supercell wind profiles will exist across most of the region via the mid-level jet and a diurnally sustained 30+ kt low-level jet. Initial supercells will pose a threat for all severe weather hazards including the potential for strong tornadoes, but a mixed convective mode should evolve as upscale growth occurs into multiple clusters. Relatively widespread damaging winds, along with a continued mixed-mode tornado potential, may occur by late afternoon and evening as storms spread east-southeastward toward the Appalachians vicinity. ...Carolinas and far southern Virginia... Weak height falls will begin to influence the region by late in the day with a warm front beginning to shift northward across the region. At least a conditional or isolated potential for severe storms including supercells will exist near the warm front and within the immediately adjacent warm sector. ..Guyer.. 05/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH AND TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely across portions of the Mid-South, Tennessee Valley, and lower Ohio River Valley on Tuesday, including damaging winds and tornadoes, a few of which could be strong. ...Mid-South and Tennessee/Lower Ohio Valleys... Residual thunderstorms and associated cloud cover are expected to be ongoing across the Mid-South to lower Ohio Valley Tuesday morning, with the early day extensiveness of these storms, and related outflow/differential heating, to be key factors, and points of uncertainty, regarding later-day severe potential. This will especially be the case with northward extent toward the Ohio River and northern parts of the Cumberland Plateau. On the south/southwest edge of this early day activity, relatively rapid air mass recovery and destabilization can be expected, owing to sustained low-level moisture transport from the southwest in tandem with cloud breaks and an advancing mid-level dry slot. This will be as an upper low shifts northeastward over the middle Missouri Valley and Upper Midwest, with a cyclonically curved mid/upper-level jet streak overspreading the warm sector, which could be convectively contaminated near/north of the Ohio River. At least moderate buoyancy is forecast to develop across the unperturbed and weakly capped warm sector by early afternoon. It should be noted that multiple sub-regional areas, particularly across central/eastern portions of Kentucky and Tennessee, could receive multiple repeat-rounds of severe storms on Tuesday. Thunderstorm development will likely occur rather early in the afternoon as inhibition will be quickly eroded and dynamic forcing for ascent overspreads the warm sector. Very favorable supercell wind profiles will exist across most of the region via the mid-level jet and a diurnally sustained 30+ kt low-level jet. Initial supercells will pose a threat for all severe weather hazards including the potential for strong tornadoes, but a mixed convective mode should evolve as upscale growth occurs into multiple clusters. Relatively widespread damaging winds, along with a continued mixed-mode tornado potential, may occur by late afternoon and evening as storms spread east-southeastward toward the Appalachians vicinity. ...Carolinas and far southern Virginia... Weak height falls will begin to influence the region by late in the day with a warm front beginning to shift northward across the region. At least a conditional or isolated potential for severe storms including supercells will exist near the warm front and within the immediately adjacent warm sector. ..Guyer.. 05/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH AND TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely across portions of the Mid-South, Tennessee Valley, and lower Ohio River Valley on Tuesday, including damaging winds and tornadoes, a few of which could be strong. ...Mid-South and Tennessee/Lower Ohio Valleys... Residual thunderstorms and associated cloud cover are expected to be ongoing across the Mid-South to lower Ohio Valley Tuesday morning, with the early day extensiveness of these storms, and related outflow/differential heating, to be key factors, and points of uncertainty, regarding later-day severe potential. This will especially be the case with northward extent toward the Ohio River and northern parts of the Cumberland Plateau. On the south/southwest edge of this early day activity, relatively rapid air mass recovery and destabilization can be expected, owing to sustained low-level moisture transport from the southwest in tandem with cloud breaks and an advancing mid-level dry slot. This will be as an upper low shifts northeastward over the middle Missouri Valley and Upper Midwest, with a cyclonically curved mid/upper-level jet streak overspreading the warm sector, which could be convectively contaminated near/north of the Ohio River. At least moderate buoyancy is forecast to develop across the unperturbed and weakly capped warm sector by early afternoon. It should be noted that multiple sub-regional areas, particularly across central/eastern portions of Kentucky and Tennessee, could receive multiple repeat-rounds of severe storms on Tuesday. Thunderstorm development will likely occur rather early in the afternoon as inhibition will be quickly eroded and dynamic forcing for ascent overspreads the warm sector. Very favorable supercell wind profiles will exist across most of the region via the mid-level jet and a diurnally sustained 30+ kt low-level jet. Initial supercells will pose a threat for all severe weather hazards including the potential for strong tornadoes, but a mixed convective mode should evolve as upscale growth occurs into multiple clusters. Relatively widespread damaging winds, along with a continued mixed-mode tornado potential, may occur by late afternoon and evening as storms spread east-southeastward toward the Appalachians vicinity. ...Carolinas and far southern Virginia... Weak height falls will begin to influence the region by late in the day with a warm front beginning to shift northward across the region. At least a conditional or isolated potential for severe storms including supercells will exist near the warm front and within the immediately adjacent warm sector. ..Guyer.. 05/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH AND TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely across portions of the Mid-South, Tennessee Valley, and lower Ohio River Valley on Tuesday, including damaging winds and tornadoes, a few of which could be strong. ...Mid-South and Tennessee/Lower Ohio Valleys... Residual thunderstorms and associated cloud cover are expected to be ongoing across the Mid-South to lower Ohio Valley Tuesday morning, with the early day extensiveness of these storms, and related outflow/differential heating, to be key factors, and points of uncertainty, regarding later-day severe potential. This will especially be the case with northward extent toward the Ohio River and northern parts of the Cumberland Plateau. On the south/southwest edge of this early day activity, relatively rapid air mass recovery and destabilization can be expected, owing to sustained low-level moisture transport from the southwest in tandem with cloud breaks and an advancing mid-level dry slot. This will be as an upper low shifts northeastward over the middle Missouri Valley and Upper Midwest, with a cyclonically curved mid/upper-level jet streak overspreading the warm sector, which could be convectively contaminated near/north of the Ohio River. At least moderate buoyancy is forecast to develop across the unperturbed and weakly capped warm sector by early afternoon. It should be noted that multiple sub-regional areas, particularly across central/eastern portions of Kentucky and Tennessee, could receive multiple repeat-rounds of severe storms on Tuesday. Thunderstorm development will likely occur rather early in the afternoon as inhibition will be quickly eroded and dynamic forcing for ascent overspreads the warm sector. Very favorable supercell wind profiles will exist across most of the region via the mid-level jet and a diurnally sustained 30+ kt low-level jet. Initial supercells will pose a threat for all severe weather hazards including the potential for strong tornadoes, but a mixed convective mode should evolve as upscale growth occurs into multiple clusters. Relatively widespread damaging winds, along with a continued mixed-mode tornado potential, may occur by late afternoon and evening as storms spread east-southeastward toward the Appalachians vicinity. ...Carolinas and far southern Virginia... Weak height falls will begin to influence the region by late in the day with a warm front beginning to shift northward across the region. At least a conditional or isolated potential for severe storms including supercells will exist near the warm front and within the immediately adjacent warm sector. ..Guyer.. 05/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH AND TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely across portions of the Mid-South, Tennessee Valley, and lower Ohio River Valley on Tuesday, including damaging winds and tornadoes, a few of which could be strong. ...Mid-South and Tennessee/Lower Ohio Valleys... Residual thunderstorms and associated cloud cover are expected to be ongoing across the Mid-South to lower Ohio Valley Tuesday morning, with the early day extensiveness of these storms, and related outflow/differential heating, to be key factors, and points of uncertainty, regarding later-day severe potential. This will especially be the case with northward extent toward the Ohio River and northern parts of the Cumberland Plateau. On the south/southwest edge of this early day activity, relatively rapid air mass recovery and destabilization can be expected, owing to sustained low-level moisture transport from the southwest in tandem with cloud breaks and an advancing mid-level dry slot. This will be as an upper low shifts northeastward over the middle Missouri Valley and Upper Midwest, with a cyclonically curved mid/upper-level jet streak overspreading the warm sector, which could be convectively contaminated near/north of the Ohio River. At least moderate buoyancy is forecast to develop across the unperturbed and weakly capped warm sector by early afternoon. It should be noted that multiple sub-regional areas, particularly across central/eastern portions of Kentucky and Tennessee, could receive multiple repeat-rounds of severe storms on Tuesday. Thunderstorm development will likely occur rather early in the afternoon as inhibition will be quickly eroded and dynamic forcing for ascent overspreads the warm sector. Very favorable supercell wind profiles will exist across most of the region via the mid-level jet and a diurnally sustained 30+ kt low-level jet. Initial supercells will pose a threat for all severe weather hazards including the potential for strong tornadoes, but a mixed convective mode should evolve as upscale growth occurs into multiple clusters. Relatively widespread damaging winds, along with a continued mixed-mode tornado potential, may occur by late afternoon and evening as storms spread east-southeastward toward the Appalachians vicinity. ...Carolinas and far southern Virginia... Weak height falls will begin to influence the region by late in the day with a warm front beginning to shift northward across the region. At least a conditional or isolated potential for severe storms including supercells will exist near the warm front and within the immediately adjacent warm sector. ..Guyer.. 05/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH AND TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely across portions of the Mid-South, Tennessee Valley, and lower Ohio River Valley on Tuesday, including damaging winds and tornadoes, a few of which could be strong. ...Mid-South and Tennessee/Lower Ohio Valleys... Residual thunderstorms and associated cloud cover are expected to be ongoing across the Mid-South to lower Ohio Valley Tuesday morning, with the early day extensiveness of these storms, and related outflow/differential heating, to be key factors, and points of uncertainty, regarding later-day severe potential. This will especially be the case with northward extent toward the Ohio River and northern parts of the Cumberland Plateau. On the south/southwest edge of this early day activity, relatively rapid air mass recovery and destabilization can be expected, owing to sustained low-level moisture transport from the southwest in tandem with cloud breaks and an advancing mid-level dry slot. This will be as an upper low shifts northeastward over the middle Missouri Valley and Upper Midwest, with a cyclonically curved mid/upper-level jet streak overspreading the warm sector, which could be convectively contaminated near/north of the Ohio River. At least moderate buoyancy is forecast to develop across the unperturbed and weakly capped warm sector by early afternoon. It should be noted that multiple sub-regional areas, particularly across central/eastern portions of Kentucky and Tennessee, could receive multiple repeat-rounds of severe storms on Tuesday. Thunderstorm development will likely occur rather early in the afternoon as inhibition will be quickly eroded and dynamic forcing for ascent overspreads the warm sector. Very favorable supercell wind profiles will exist across most of the region via the mid-level jet and a diurnally sustained 30+ kt low-level jet. Initial supercells will pose a threat for all severe weather hazards including the potential for strong tornadoes, but a mixed convective mode should evolve as upscale growth occurs into multiple clusters. Relatively widespread damaging winds, along with a continued mixed-mode tornado potential, may occur by late afternoon and evening as storms spread east-southeastward toward the Appalachians vicinity. ...Carolinas and far southern Virginia... Weak height falls will begin to influence the region by late in the day with a warm front beginning to shift northward across the region. At least a conditional or isolated potential for severe storms including supercells will exist near the warm front and within the immediately adjacent warm sector. ..Guyer.. 05/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH AND TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely across portions of the Mid-South, Tennessee Valley, and lower Ohio River Valley on Tuesday, including damaging winds and tornadoes, a few of which could be strong. ...Mid-South and Tennessee/Lower Ohio Valleys... Residual thunderstorms and associated cloud cover are expected to be ongoing across the Mid-South to lower Ohio Valley Tuesday morning, with the early day extensiveness of these storms, and related outflow/differential heating, to be key factors, and points of uncertainty, regarding later-day severe potential. This will especially be the case with northward extent toward the Ohio River and northern parts of the Cumberland Plateau. On the south/southwest edge of this early day activity, relatively rapid air mass recovery and destabilization can be expected, owing to sustained low-level moisture transport from the southwest in tandem with cloud breaks and an advancing mid-level dry slot. This will be as an upper low shifts northeastward over the middle Missouri Valley and Upper Midwest, with a cyclonically curved mid/upper-level jet streak overspreading the warm sector, which could be convectively contaminated near/north of the Ohio River. At least moderate buoyancy is forecast to develop across the unperturbed and weakly capped warm sector by early afternoon. It should be noted that multiple sub-regional areas, particularly across central/eastern portions of Kentucky and Tennessee, could receive multiple repeat-rounds of severe storms on Tuesday. Thunderstorm development will likely occur rather early in the afternoon as inhibition will be quickly eroded and dynamic forcing for ascent overspreads the warm sector. Very favorable supercell wind profiles will exist across most of the region via the mid-level jet and a diurnally sustained 30+ kt low-level jet. Initial supercells will pose a threat for all severe weather hazards including the potential for strong tornadoes, but a mixed convective mode should evolve as upscale growth occurs into multiple clusters. Relatively widespread damaging winds, along with a continued mixed-mode tornado potential, may occur by late afternoon and evening as storms spread east-southeastward toward the Appalachians vicinity. ...Carolinas and far southern Virginia... Weak height falls will begin to influence the region by late in the day with a warm front beginning to shift northward across the region. At least a conditional or isolated potential for severe storms including supercells will exist near the warm front and within the immediately adjacent warm sector. ..Guyer.. 05/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH AND TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely across portions of the Mid-South, Tennessee Valley, and lower Ohio River Valley on Tuesday, including damaging winds and tornadoes, a few of which could be strong. ...Mid-South and Tennessee/Lower Ohio Valleys... Residual thunderstorms and associated cloud cover are expected to be ongoing across the Mid-South to lower Ohio Valley Tuesday morning, with the early day extensiveness of these storms, and related outflow/differential heating, to be key factors, and points of uncertainty, regarding later-day severe potential. This will especially be the case with northward extent toward the Ohio River and northern parts of the Cumberland Plateau. On the south/southwest edge of this early day activity, relatively rapid air mass recovery and destabilization can be expected, owing to sustained low-level moisture transport from the southwest in tandem with cloud breaks and an advancing mid-level dry slot. This will be as an upper low shifts northeastward over the middle Missouri Valley and Upper Midwest, with a cyclonically curved mid/upper-level jet streak overspreading the warm sector, which could be convectively contaminated near/north of the Ohio River. At least moderate buoyancy is forecast to develop across the unperturbed and weakly capped warm sector by early afternoon. It should be noted that multiple sub-regional areas, particularly across central/eastern portions of Kentucky and Tennessee, could receive multiple repeat-rounds of severe storms on Tuesday. Thunderstorm development will likely occur rather early in the afternoon as inhibition will be quickly eroded and dynamic forcing for ascent overspreads the warm sector. Very favorable supercell wind profiles will exist across most of the region via the mid-level jet and a diurnally sustained 30+ kt low-level jet. Initial supercells will pose a threat for all severe weather hazards including the potential for strong tornadoes, but a mixed convective mode should evolve as upscale growth occurs into multiple clusters. Relatively widespread damaging winds, along with a continued mixed-mode tornado potential, may occur by late afternoon and evening as storms spread east-southeastward toward the Appalachians vicinity. ...Carolinas and far southern Virginia... Weak height falls will begin to influence the region by late in the day with a warm front beginning to shift northward across the region. At least a conditional or isolated potential for severe storms including supercells will exist near the warm front and within the immediately adjacent warm sector. ..Guyer.. 05/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH AND TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely across portions of the Mid-South, Tennessee Valley, and lower Ohio River Valley on Tuesday, including damaging winds and tornadoes, a few of which could be strong. ...Mid-South and Tennessee/Lower Ohio Valleys... Residual thunderstorms and associated cloud cover are expected to be ongoing across the Mid-South to lower Ohio Valley Tuesday morning, with the early day extensiveness of these storms, and related outflow/differential heating, to be key factors, and points of uncertainty, regarding later-day severe potential. This will especially be the case with northward extent toward the Ohio River and northern parts of the Cumberland Plateau. On the south/southwest edge of this early day activity, relatively rapid air mass recovery and destabilization can be expected, owing to sustained low-level moisture transport from the southwest in tandem with cloud breaks and an advancing mid-level dry slot. This will be as an upper low shifts northeastward over the middle Missouri Valley and Upper Midwest, with a cyclonically curved mid/upper-level jet streak overspreading the warm sector, which could be convectively contaminated near/north of the Ohio River. At least moderate buoyancy is forecast to develop across the unperturbed and weakly capped warm sector by early afternoon. It should be noted that multiple sub-regional areas, particularly across central/eastern portions of Kentucky and Tennessee, could receive multiple repeat-rounds of severe storms on Tuesday. Thunderstorm development will likely occur rather early in the afternoon as inhibition will be quickly eroded and dynamic forcing for ascent overspreads the warm sector. Very favorable supercell wind profiles will exist across most of the region via the mid-level jet and a diurnally sustained 30+ kt low-level jet. Initial supercells will pose a threat for all severe weather hazards including the potential for strong tornadoes, but a mixed convective mode should evolve as upscale growth occurs into multiple clusters. Relatively widespread damaging winds, along with a continued mixed-mode tornado potential, may occur by late afternoon and evening as storms spread east-southeastward toward the Appalachians vicinity. ...Carolinas and far southern Virginia... Weak height falls will begin to influence the region by late in the day with a warm front beginning to shift northward across the region. At least a conditional or isolated potential for severe storms including supercells will exist near the warm front and within the immediately adjacent warm sector. ..Guyer.. 05/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH AND TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely across portions of the Mid-South, Tennessee Valley, and lower Ohio River Valley on Tuesday, including damaging winds and tornadoes, a few of which could be strong. ...Mid-South and Tennessee/Lower Ohio Valleys... Residual thunderstorms and associated cloud cover are expected to be ongoing across the Mid-South to lower Ohio Valley Tuesday morning, with the early day extensiveness of these storms, and related outflow/differential heating, to be key factors, and points of uncertainty, regarding later-day severe potential. This will especially be the case with northward extent toward the Ohio River and northern parts of the Cumberland Plateau. On the south/southwest edge of this early day activity, relatively rapid air mass recovery and destabilization can be expected, owing to sustained low-level moisture transport from the southwest in tandem with cloud breaks and an advancing mid-level dry slot. This will be as an upper low shifts northeastward over the middle Missouri Valley and Upper Midwest, with a cyclonically curved mid/upper-level jet streak overspreading the warm sector, which could be convectively contaminated near/north of the Ohio River. At least moderate buoyancy is forecast to develop across the unperturbed and weakly capped warm sector by early afternoon. It should be noted that multiple sub-regional areas, particularly across central/eastern portions of Kentucky and Tennessee, could receive multiple repeat-rounds of severe storms on Tuesday. Thunderstorm development will likely occur rather early in the afternoon as inhibition will be quickly eroded and dynamic forcing for ascent overspreads the warm sector. Very favorable supercell wind profiles will exist across most of the region via the mid-level jet and a diurnally sustained 30+ kt low-level jet. Initial supercells will pose a threat for all severe weather hazards including the potential for strong tornadoes, but a mixed convective mode should evolve as upscale growth occurs into multiple clusters. Relatively widespread damaging winds, along with a continued mixed-mode tornado potential, may occur by late afternoon and evening as storms spread east-southeastward toward the Appalachians vicinity. ...Carolinas and far southern Virginia... Weak height falls will begin to influence the region by late in the day with a warm front beginning to shift northward across the region. At least a conditional or isolated potential for severe storms including supercells will exist near the warm front and within the immediately adjacent warm sector. ..Guyer.. 05/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH AND TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely across portions of the Mid-South, Tennessee Valley, and lower Ohio River Valley on Tuesday, including damaging winds and tornadoes, a few of which could be strong. ...Mid-South and Tennessee/Lower Ohio Valleys... Residual thunderstorms and associated cloud cover are expected to be ongoing across the Mid-South to lower Ohio Valley Tuesday morning, with the early day extensiveness of these storms, and related outflow/differential heating, to be key factors, and points of uncertainty, regarding later-day severe potential. This will especially be the case with northward extent toward the Ohio River and northern parts of the Cumberland Plateau. On the south/southwest edge of this early day activity, relatively rapid air mass recovery and destabilization can be expected, owing to sustained low-level moisture transport from the southwest in tandem with cloud breaks and an advancing mid-level dry slot. This will be as an upper low shifts northeastward over the middle Missouri Valley and Upper Midwest, with a cyclonically curved mid/upper-level jet streak overspreading the warm sector, which could be convectively contaminated near/north of the Ohio River. At least moderate buoyancy is forecast to develop across the unperturbed and weakly capped warm sector by early afternoon. It should be noted that multiple sub-regional areas, particularly across central/eastern portions of Kentucky and Tennessee, could receive multiple repeat-rounds of severe storms on Tuesday. Thunderstorm development will likely occur rather early in the afternoon as inhibition will be quickly eroded and dynamic forcing for ascent overspreads the warm sector. Very favorable supercell wind profiles will exist across most of the region via the mid-level jet and a diurnally sustained 30+ kt low-level jet. Initial supercells will pose a threat for all severe weather hazards including the potential for strong tornadoes, but a mixed convective mode should evolve as upscale growth occurs into multiple clusters. Relatively widespread damaging winds, along with a continued mixed-mode tornado potential, may occur by late afternoon and evening as storms spread east-southeastward toward the Appalachians vicinity. ...Carolinas and far southern Virginia... Weak height falls will begin to influence the region by late in the day with a warm front beginning to shift northward across the region. At least a conditional or isolated potential for severe storms including supercells will exist near the warm front and within the immediately adjacent warm sector. ..Guyer.. 05/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH AND TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely across portions of the Mid-South, Tennessee Valley, and lower Ohio River Valley on Tuesday, including damaging winds and tornadoes, a few of which could be strong. ...Mid-South and Tennessee/Lower Ohio Valleys... Residual thunderstorms and associated cloud cover are expected to be ongoing across the Mid-South to lower Ohio Valley Tuesday morning, with the early day extensiveness of these storms, and related outflow/differential heating, to be key factors, and points of uncertainty, regarding later-day severe potential. This will especially be the case with northward extent toward the Ohio River and northern parts of the Cumberland Plateau. On the south/southwest edge of this early day activity, relatively rapid air mass recovery and destabilization can be expected, owing to sustained low-level moisture transport from the southwest in tandem with cloud breaks and an advancing mid-level dry slot. This will be as an upper low shifts northeastward over the middle Missouri Valley and Upper Midwest, with a cyclonically curved mid/upper-level jet streak overspreading the warm sector, which could be convectively contaminated near/north of the Ohio River. At least moderate buoyancy is forecast to develop across the unperturbed and weakly capped warm sector by early afternoon. It should be noted that multiple sub-regional areas, particularly across central/eastern portions of Kentucky and Tennessee, could receive multiple repeat-rounds of severe storms on Tuesday. Thunderstorm development will likely occur rather early in the afternoon as inhibition will be quickly eroded and dynamic forcing for ascent overspreads the warm sector. Very favorable supercell wind profiles will exist across most of the region via the mid-level jet and a diurnally sustained 30+ kt low-level jet. Initial supercells will pose a threat for all severe weather hazards including the potential for strong tornadoes, but a mixed convective mode should evolve as upscale growth occurs into multiple clusters. Relatively widespread damaging winds, along with a continued mixed-mode tornado potential, may occur by late afternoon and evening as storms spread east-southeastward toward the Appalachians vicinity. ...Carolinas and far southern Virginia... Weak height falls will begin to influence the region by late in the day with a warm front beginning to shift northward across the region. At least a conditional or isolated potential for severe storms including supercells will exist near the warm front and within the immediately adjacent warm sector. ..Guyer.. 05/19/2025 Read more