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SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 200100Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...AND FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... A significant severe weather episode should continue tonight across parts of the South-Central States. Strong tornadoes, scattered to widespread damaging wind swaths, and very large hail remain possible. ...TX/OK to the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valley... While extensive overturning has already occurred, there are several primary areas of concern for severe storms tonight. In the near-term, the greatest tornado/wind potential should exist with a pair of supercells embedded within a broad southwest/northeast-oriented QLCS from the Ozark Plateau to the Red River. With the most pronounced low-level shear ahead of this portion of the QLCS, strong tornado and significant severe wind potential should persist into late evening. Despite stronger large-scale ascent focused west, the organized nature of the QLCS suggests that embedded wind gusts of 60-75 mph could produce a potentially widespread damaging wind swath that may persist east-northeast overnight. Have expanded outlook categories farther east across the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valley. The trailing portion of the QLCS has been stubborn to accelerate east, but should begin to do so in the next couple hours. Short-term guidance has been insistent on additional convection developing back west with strengthening ascent ahead of the primary shortwave trough from central to eastern OK tonight. This could pose another round of severe hail/wind threat persisting into the early morning. ...KS and the Lower/Mid-MO Valley... Scattered severe storms should generally wane during the late evening. But similar to the OK redevelopment, post-dryline/frontal high-based convection should expand east-northeast and likely impinge on lingering strong to severe storms across eastern KS. This could maintain at least isolated severe storms lingering overnight. ..Grams.. 05/20/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 200100Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...AND FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... A significant severe weather episode should continue tonight across parts of the South-Central States. Strong tornadoes, scattered to widespread damaging wind swaths, and very large hail remain possible. ...TX/OK to the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valley... While extensive overturning has already occurred, there are several primary areas of concern for severe storms tonight. In the near-term, the greatest tornado/wind potential should exist with a pair of supercells embedded within a broad southwest/northeast-oriented QLCS from the Ozark Plateau to the Red River. With the most pronounced low-level shear ahead of this portion of the QLCS, strong tornado and significant severe wind potential should persist into late evening. Despite stronger large-scale ascent focused west, the organized nature of the QLCS suggests that embedded wind gusts of 60-75 mph could produce a potentially widespread damaging wind swath that may persist east-northeast overnight. Have expanded outlook categories farther east across the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valley. The trailing portion of the QLCS has been stubborn to accelerate east, but should begin to do so in the next couple hours. Short-term guidance has been insistent on additional convection developing back west with strengthening ascent ahead of the primary shortwave trough from central to eastern OK tonight. This could pose another round of severe hail/wind threat persisting into the early morning. ...KS and the Lower/Mid-MO Valley... Scattered severe storms should generally wane during the late evening. But similar to the OK redevelopment, post-dryline/frontal high-based convection should expand east-northeast and likely impinge on lingering strong to severe storms across eastern KS. This could maintain at least isolated severe storms lingering overnight. ..Grams.. 05/20/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 200100Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...AND FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... A significant severe weather episode should continue tonight across parts of the South-Central States. Strong tornadoes, scattered to widespread damaging wind swaths, and very large hail remain possible. ...TX/OK to the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valley... While extensive overturning has already occurred, there are several primary areas of concern for severe storms tonight. In the near-term, the greatest tornado/wind potential should exist with a pair of supercells embedded within a broad southwest/northeast-oriented QLCS from the Ozark Plateau to the Red River. With the most pronounced low-level shear ahead of this portion of the QLCS, strong tornado and significant severe wind potential should persist into late evening. Despite stronger large-scale ascent focused west, the organized nature of the QLCS suggests that embedded wind gusts of 60-75 mph could produce a potentially widespread damaging wind swath that may persist east-northeast overnight. Have expanded outlook categories farther east across the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valley. The trailing portion of the QLCS has been stubborn to accelerate east, but should begin to do so in the next couple hours. Short-term guidance has been insistent on additional convection developing back west with strengthening ascent ahead of the primary shortwave trough from central to eastern OK tonight. This could pose another round of severe hail/wind threat persisting into the early morning. ...KS and the Lower/Mid-MO Valley... Scattered severe storms should generally wane during the late evening. But similar to the OK redevelopment, post-dryline/frontal high-based convection should expand east-northeast and likely impinge on lingering strong to severe storms across eastern KS. This could maintain at least isolated severe storms lingering overnight. ..Grams.. 05/20/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 200100Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...AND FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... A significant severe weather episode should continue tonight across parts of the South-Central States. Strong tornadoes, scattered to widespread damaging wind swaths, and very large hail remain possible. ...TX/OK to the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valley... While extensive overturning has already occurred, there are several primary areas of concern for severe storms tonight. In the near-term, the greatest tornado/wind potential should exist with a pair of supercells embedded within a broad southwest/northeast-oriented QLCS from the Ozark Plateau to the Red River. With the most pronounced low-level shear ahead of this portion of the QLCS, strong tornado and significant severe wind potential should persist into late evening. Despite stronger large-scale ascent focused west, the organized nature of the QLCS suggests that embedded wind gusts of 60-75 mph could produce a potentially widespread damaging wind swath that may persist east-northeast overnight. Have expanded outlook categories farther east across the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valley. The trailing portion of the QLCS has been stubborn to accelerate east, but should begin to do so in the next couple hours. Short-term guidance has been insistent on additional convection developing back west with strengthening ascent ahead of the primary shortwave trough from central to eastern OK tonight. This could pose another round of severe hail/wind threat persisting into the early morning. ...KS and the Lower/Mid-MO Valley... Scattered severe storms should generally wane during the late evening. But similar to the OK redevelopment, post-dryline/frontal high-based convection should expand east-northeast and likely impinge on lingering strong to severe storms across eastern KS. This could maintain at least isolated severe storms lingering overnight. ..Grams.. 05/20/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 200100Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...AND FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... A significant severe weather episode should continue tonight across parts of the South-Central States. Strong tornadoes, scattered to widespread damaging wind swaths, and very large hail remain possible. ...TX/OK to the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valley... While extensive overturning has already occurred, there are several primary areas of concern for severe storms tonight. In the near-term, the greatest tornado/wind potential should exist with a pair of supercells embedded within a broad southwest/northeast-oriented QLCS from the Ozark Plateau to the Red River. With the most pronounced low-level shear ahead of this portion of the QLCS, strong tornado and significant severe wind potential should persist into late evening. Despite stronger large-scale ascent focused west, the organized nature of the QLCS suggests that embedded wind gusts of 60-75 mph could produce a potentially widespread damaging wind swath that may persist east-northeast overnight. Have expanded outlook categories farther east across the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valley. The trailing portion of the QLCS has been stubborn to accelerate east, but should begin to do so in the next couple hours. Short-term guidance has been insistent on additional convection developing back west with strengthening ascent ahead of the primary shortwave trough from central to eastern OK tonight. This could pose another round of severe hail/wind threat persisting into the early morning. ...KS and the Lower/Mid-MO Valley... Scattered severe storms should generally wane during the late evening. But similar to the OK redevelopment, post-dryline/frontal high-based convection should expand east-northeast and likely impinge on lingering strong to severe storms across eastern KS. This could maintain at least isolated severe storms lingering overnight. ..Grams.. 05/20/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 200100Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...AND FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... A significant severe weather episode should continue tonight across parts of the South-Central States. Strong tornadoes, scattered to widespread damaging wind swaths, and very large hail remain possible. ...TX/OK to the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valley... While extensive overturning has already occurred, there are several primary areas of concern for severe storms tonight. In the near-term, the greatest tornado/wind potential should exist with a pair of supercells embedded within a broad southwest/northeast-oriented QLCS from the Ozark Plateau to the Red River. With the most pronounced low-level shear ahead of this portion of the QLCS, strong tornado and significant severe wind potential should persist into late evening. Despite stronger large-scale ascent focused west, the organized nature of the QLCS suggests that embedded wind gusts of 60-75 mph could produce a potentially widespread damaging wind swath that may persist east-northeast overnight. Have expanded outlook categories farther east across the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valley. The trailing portion of the QLCS has been stubborn to accelerate east, but should begin to do so in the next couple hours. Short-term guidance has been insistent on additional convection developing back west with strengthening ascent ahead of the primary shortwave trough from central to eastern OK tonight. This could pose another round of severe hail/wind threat persisting into the early morning. ...KS and the Lower/Mid-MO Valley... Scattered severe storms should generally wane during the late evening. But similar to the OK redevelopment, post-dryline/frontal high-based convection should expand east-northeast and likely impinge on lingering strong to severe storms across eastern KS. This could maintain at least isolated severe storms lingering overnight. ..Grams.. 05/20/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 200100Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...AND FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... A significant severe weather episode should continue tonight across parts of the South-Central States. Strong tornadoes, scattered to widespread damaging wind swaths, and very large hail remain possible. ...TX/OK to the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valley... While extensive overturning has already occurred, there are several primary areas of concern for severe storms tonight. In the near-term, the greatest tornado/wind potential should exist with a pair of supercells embedded within a broad southwest/northeast-oriented QLCS from the Ozark Plateau to the Red River. With the most pronounced low-level shear ahead of this portion of the QLCS, strong tornado and significant severe wind potential should persist into late evening. Despite stronger large-scale ascent focused west, the organized nature of the QLCS suggests that embedded wind gusts of 60-75 mph could produce a potentially widespread damaging wind swath that may persist east-northeast overnight. Have expanded outlook categories farther east across the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valley. The trailing portion of the QLCS has been stubborn to accelerate east, but should begin to do so in the next couple hours. Short-term guidance has been insistent on additional convection developing back west with strengthening ascent ahead of the primary shortwave trough from central to eastern OK tonight. This could pose another round of severe hail/wind threat persisting into the early morning. ...KS and the Lower/Mid-MO Valley... Scattered severe storms should generally wane during the late evening. But similar to the OK redevelopment, post-dryline/frontal high-based convection should expand east-northeast and likely impinge on lingering strong to severe storms across eastern KS. This could maintain at least isolated severe storms lingering overnight. ..Grams.. 05/20/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 200100Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...AND FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... A significant severe weather episode should continue tonight across parts of the South-Central States. Strong tornadoes, scattered to widespread damaging wind swaths, and very large hail remain possible. ...TX/OK to the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valley... While extensive overturning has already occurred, there are several primary areas of concern for severe storms tonight. In the near-term, the greatest tornado/wind potential should exist with a pair of supercells embedded within a broad southwest/northeast-oriented QLCS from the Ozark Plateau to the Red River. With the most pronounced low-level shear ahead of this portion of the QLCS, strong tornado and significant severe wind potential should persist into late evening. Despite stronger large-scale ascent focused west, the organized nature of the QLCS suggests that embedded wind gusts of 60-75 mph could produce a potentially widespread damaging wind swath that may persist east-northeast overnight. Have expanded outlook categories farther east across the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valley. The trailing portion of the QLCS has been stubborn to accelerate east, but should begin to do so in the next couple hours. Short-term guidance has been insistent on additional convection developing back west with strengthening ascent ahead of the primary shortwave trough from central to eastern OK tonight. This could pose another round of severe hail/wind threat persisting into the early morning. ...KS and the Lower/Mid-MO Valley... Scattered severe storms should generally wane during the late evening. But similar to the OK redevelopment, post-dryline/frontal high-based convection should expand east-northeast and likely impinge on lingering strong to severe storms across eastern KS. This could maintain at least isolated severe storms lingering overnight. ..Grams.. 05/20/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 200100Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...AND FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... A significant severe weather episode should continue tonight across parts of the South-Central States. Strong tornadoes, scattered to widespread damaging wind swaths, and very large hail remain possible. ...TX/OK to the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valley... While extensive overturning has already occurred, there are several primary areas of concern for severe storms tonight. In the near-term, the greatest tornado/wind potential should exist with a pair of supercells embedded within a broad southwest/northeast-oriented QLCS from the Ozark Plateau to the Red River. With the most pronounced low-level shear ahead of this portion of the QLCS, strong tornado and significant severe wind potential should persist into late evening. Despite stronger large-scale ascent focused west, the organized nature of the QLCS suggests that embedded wind gusts of 60-75 mph could produce a potentially widespread damaging wind swath that may persist east-northeast overnight. Have expanded outlook categories farther east across the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valley. The trailing portion of the QLCS has been stubborn to accelerate east, but should begin to do so in the next couple hours. Short-term guidance has been insistent on additional convection developing back west with strengthening ascent ahead of the primary shortwave trough from central to eastern OK tonight. This could pose another round of severe hail/wind threat persisting into the early morning. ...KS and the Lower/Mid-MO Valley... Scattered severe storms should generally wane during the late evening. But similar to the OK redevelopment, post-dryline/frontal high-based convection should expand east-northeast and likely impinge on lingering strong to severe storms across eastern KS. This could maintain at least isolated severe storms lingering overnight. ..Grams.. 05/20/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 200100Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...AND FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... A significant severe weather episode should continue tonight across parts of the South-Central States. Strong tornadoes, scattered to widespread damaging wind swaths, and very large hail remain possible. ...TX/OK to the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valley... While extensive overturning has already occurred, there are several primary areas of concern for severe storms tonight. In the near-term, the greatest tornado/wind potential should exist with a pair of supercells embedded within a broad southwest/northeast-oriented QLCS from the Ozark Plateau to the Red River. With the most pronounced low-level shear ahead of this portion of the QLCS, strong tornado and significant severe wind potential should persist into late evening. Despite stronger large-scale ascent focused west, the organized nature of the QLCS suggests that embedded wind gusts of 60-75 mph could produce a potentially widespread damaging wind swath that may persist east-northeast overnight. Have expanded outlook categories farther east across the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valley. The trailing portion of the QLCS has been stubborn to accelerate east, but should begin to do so in the next couple hours. Short-term guidance has been insistent on additional convection developing back west with strengthening ascent ahead of the primary shortwave trough from central to eastern OK tonight. This could pose another round of severe hail/wind threat persisting into the early morning. ...KS and the Lower/Mid-MO Valley... Scattered severe storms should generally wane during the late evening. But similar to the OK redevelopment, post-dryline/frontal high-based convection should expand east-northeast and likely impinge on lingering strong to severe storms across eastern KS. This could maintain at least isolated severe storms lingering overnight. ..Grams.. 05/20/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 200100Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...AND FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... A significant severe weather episode should continue tonight across parts of the South-Central States. Strong tornadoes, scattered to widespread damaging wind swaths, and very large hail remain possible. ...TX/OK to the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valley... While extensive overturning has already occurred, there are several primary areas of concern for severe storms tonight. In the near-term, the greatest tornado/wind potential should exist with a pair of supercells embedded within a broad southwest/northeast-oriented QLCS from the Ozark Plateau to the Red River. With the most pronounced low-level shear ahead of this portion of the QLCS, strong tornado and significant severe wind potential should persist into late evening. Despite stronger large-scale ascent focused west, the organized nature of the QLCS suggests that embedded wind gusts of 60-75 mph could produce a potentially widespread damaging wind swath that may persist east-northeast overnight. Have expanded outlook categories farther east across the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valley. The trailing portion of the QLCS has been stubborn to accelerate east, but should begin to do so in the next couple hours. Short-term guidance has been insistent on additional convection developing back west with strengthening ascent ahead of the primary shortwave trough from central to eastern OK tonight. This could pose another round of severe hail/wind threat persisting into the early morning. ...KS and the Lower/Mid-MO Valley... Scattered severe storms should generally wane during the late evening. But similar to the OK redevelopment, post-dryline/frontal high-based convection should expand east-northeast and likely impinge on lingering strong to severe storms across eastern KS. This could maintain at least isolated severe storms lingering overnight. ..Grams.. 05/20/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 200100Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...AND FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... A significant severe weather episode should continue tonight across parts of the South-Central States. Strong tornadoes, scattered to widespread damaging wind swaths, and very large hail remain possible. ...TX/OK to the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valley... While extensive overturning has already occurred, there are several primary areas of concern for severe storms tonight. In the near-term, the greatest tornado/wind potential should exist with a pair of supercells embedded within a broad southwest/northeast-oriented QLCS from the Ozark Plateau to the Red River. With the most pronounced low-level shear ahead of this portion of the QLCS, strong tornado and significant severe wind potential should persist into late evening. Despite stronger large-scale ascent focused west, the organized nature of the QLCS suggests that embedded wind gusts of 60-75 mph could produce a potentially widespread damaging wind swath that may persist east-northeast overnight. Have expanded outlook categories farther east across the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valley. The trailing portion of the QLCS has been stubborn to accelerate east, but should begin to do so in the next couple hours. Short-term guidance has been insistent on additional convection developing back west with strengthening ascent ahead of the primary shortwave trough from central to eastern OK tonight. This could pose another round of severe hail/wind threat persisting into the early morning. ...KS and the Lower/Mid-MO Valley... Scattered severe storms should generally wane during the late evening. But similar to the OK redevelopment, post-dryline/frontal high-based convection should expand east-northeast and likely impinge on lingering strong to severe storms across eastern KS. This could maintain at least isolated severe storms lingering overnight. ..Grams.. 05/20/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 200100Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...AND FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... A significant severe weather episode should continue tonight across parts of the South-Central States. Strong tornadoes, scattered to widespread damaging wind swaths, and very large hail remain possible. ...TX/OK to the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valley... While extensive overturning has already occurred, there are several primary areas of concern for severe storms tonight. In the near-term, the greatest tornado/wind potential should exist with a pair of supercells embedded within a broad southwest/northeast-oriented QLCS from the Ozark Plateau to the Red River. With the most pronounced low-level shear ahead of this portion of the QLCS, strong tornado and significant severe wind potential should persist into late evening. Despite stronger large-scale ascent focused west, the organized nature of the QLCS suggests that embedded wind gusts of 60-75 mph could produce a potentially widespread damaging wind swath that may persist east-northeast overnight. Have expanded outlook categories farther east across the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valley. The trailing portion of the QLCS has been stubborn to accelerate east, but should begin to do so in the next couple hours. Short-term guidance has been insistent on additional convection developing back west with strengthening ascent ahead of the primary shortwave trough from central to eastern OK tonight. This could pose another round of severe hail/wind threat persisting into the early morning. ...KS and the Lower/Mid-MO Valley... Scattered severe storms should generally wane during the late evening. But similar to the OK redevelopment, post-dryline/frontal high-based convection should expand east-northeast and likely impinge on lingering strong to severe storms across eastern KS. This could maintain at least isolated severe storms lingering overnight. ..Grams.. 05/20/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 200100Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...AND FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... A significant severe weather episode should continue tonight across parts of the South-Central States. Strong tornadoes, scattered to widespread damaging wind swaths, and very large hail remain possible. ...TX/OK to the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valley... While extensive overturning has already occurred, there are several primary areas of concern for severe storms tonight. In the near-term, the greatest tornado/wind potential should exist with a pair of supercells embedded within a broad southwest/northeast-oriented QLCS from the Ozark Plateau to the Red River. With the most pronounced low-level shear ahead of this portion of the QLCS, strong tornado and significant severe wind potential should persist into late evening. Despite stronger large-scale ascent focused west, the organized nature of the QLCS suggests that embedded wind gusts of 60-75 mph could produce a potentially widespread damaging wind swath that may persist east-northeast overnight. Have expanded outlook categories farther east across the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valley. The trailing portion of the QLCS has been stubborn to accelerate east, but should begin to do so in the next couple hours. Short-term guidance has been insistent on additional convection developing back west with strengthening ascent ahead of the primary shortwave trough from central to eastern OK tonight. This could pose another round of severe hail/wind threat persisting into the early morning. ...KS and the Lower/Mid-MO Valley... Scattered severe storms should generally wane during the late evening. But similar to the OK redevelopment, post-dryline/frontal high-based convection should expand east-northeast and likely impinge on lingering strong to severe storms across eastern KS. This could maintain at least isolated severe storms lingering overnight. ..Grams.. 05/20/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 200100Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...AND FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... A significant severe weather episode should continue tonight across parts of the South-Central States. Strong tornadoes, scattered to widespread damaging wind swaths, and very large hail remain possible. ...TX/OK to the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valley... While extensive overturning has already occurred, there are several primary areas of concern for severe storms tonight. In the near-term, the greatest tornado/wind potential should exist with a pair of supercells embedded within a broad southwest/northeast-oriented QLCS from the Ozark Plateau to the Red River. With the most pronounced low-level shear ahead of this portion of the QLCS, strong tornado and significant severe wind potential should persist into late evening. Despite stronger large-scale ascent focused west, the organized nature of the QLCS suggests that embedded wind gusts of 60-75 mph could produce a potentially widespread damaging wind swath that may persist east-northeast overnight. Have expanded outlook categories farther east across the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valley. The trailing portion of the QLCS has been stubborn to accelerate east, but should begin to do so in the next couple hours. Short-term guidance has been insistent on additional convection developing back west with strengthening ascent ahead of the primary shortwave trough from central to eastern OK tonight. This could pose another round of severe hail/wind threat persisting into the early morning. ...KS and the Lower/Mid-MO Valley... Scattered severe storms should generally wane during the late evening. But similar to the OK redevelopment, post-dryline/frontal high-based convection should expand east-northeast and likely impinge on lingering strong to severe storms across eastern KS. This could maintain at least isolated severe storms lingering overnight. ..Grams.. 05/20/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 200100Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...AND FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... A significant severe weather episode should continue tonight across parts of the South-Central States. Strong tornadoes, scattered to widespread damaging wind swaths, and very large hail remain possible. ...TX/OK to the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valley... While extensive overturning has already occurred, there are several primary areas of concern for severe storms tonight. In the near-term, the greatest tornado/wind potential should exist with a pair of supercells embedded within a broad southwest/northeast-oriented QLCS from the Ozark Plateau to the Red River. With the most pronounced low-level shear ahead of this portion of the QLCS, strong tornado and significant severe wind potential should persist into late evening. Despite stronger large-scale ascent focused west, the organized nature of the QLCS suggests that embedded wind gusts of 60-75 mph could produce a potentially widespread damaging wind swath that may persist east-northeast overnight. Have expanded outlook categories farther east across the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valley. The trailing portion of the QLCS has been stubborn to accelerate east, but should begin to do so in the next couple hours. Short-term guidance has been insistent on additional convection developing back west with strengthening ascent ahead of the primary shortwave trough from central to eastern OK tonight. This could pose another round of severe hail/wind threat persisting into the early morning. ...KS and the Lower/Mid-MO Valley... Scattered severe storms should generally wane during the late evening. But similar to the OK redevelopment, post-dryline/frontal high-based convection should expand east-northeast and likely impinge on lingering strong to severe storms across eastern KS. This could maintain at least isolated severe storms lingering overnight. ..Grams.. 05/20/2025 Read more

MD 0889 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 292... FOR PARTS OF EAST-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO FAR WEST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0889 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0630 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Areas affected...Parts of east-central Oklahoma into far west-central Arkansas Concerning...Tornado Watch 292... Valid 192330Z - 200100Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 292 continues. SUMMARY...Favorable corridor for continuation of strong/intense tornadoes continues across east-central Oklahoma into west-central Arkansas. DISCUSSION...A couple intense supercell clusters are tracking east-northeastward across east-central Oklahoma -- one of which has a history of producing tornadoes (likely strong/intense). These storms are moving into the core of the low-level jet -- where the SRX VWP is sampling around 260 m2/s2 0-500m SRH. Given this very favorable streamwise vorticity, established supercell clusters, and strong surface-based instability, the risk of strong to intense tornadoes should continue for the next few hours. ..Weinman.. 05/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA... LAT...LON 34869546 35499533 35819500 35889459 35809425 35549414 35149425 34639486 34639530 34869546 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...140-170 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

MD 0888 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0888 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0611 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Areas affected...Parts of eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 192311Z - 200045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...A new Tornado Watch will be needed for parts of eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas. This watch will replace parts of Tornado Watch 295. DISCUSSION...Intensifying severe storms will continue spreading/developing east-northeastward across the eastern half of OK into western Arkansas into tonight. Across the area, strong surface-based instability is already in place, and a 40-50 kt low-level jet is yielding clockwise-curved hodographs -- characterized by upwards of 300 m2/s2 0-1km SRH (per regional VWP). While there may be a tendency for storms to gradually grow upscale into intense/organized clusters/bowing segments, the aforementioned wind profile will still support embedded/long-lived supercells -- capable of producing tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail. A Tornado Watch will likely be issued for this area. Farther west into central OK, some guidance indicates additional storm development in the vicinity of the dryline as midlevel ascent overspreads the area into tonight. If this were to occur, ample instability and 50+ kt of effective shear would support organized storms, to include supercells. Severe wind gusts and large hail would likely be the primary threats with this activity, given more unidirectional shear with westward extent (away from the focused low-level jet). Convective and environmental trends are being monitored for the need for an additional watch here. ..Weinman/Gleason.. 05/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 34119586 34629596 35829532 36339481 36559427 36629365 36469273 36179222 35649213 34649262 34019331 33709423 33819522 34119586 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...140-170 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

WW 0293 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 293 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 WNW BIE TO 30 NNE LNK TO 15 WSW TQE. ..BROYLES..05/20/25 ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 293 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC071-129-137-145-155-200140- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FREMONT MILLS MONTGOMERY PAGE POTTAWATTAMIE NEC025-055-067-097-109-127-131-133-147-153-155-177-200140- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CASS DOUGLAS GAGE JOHNSON LANCASTER NEMAHA OTOE PAWNEE RICHARDSON SARPY SAUNDERS WASHINGTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0293 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 293 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 WNW BIE TO 30 NNE LNK TO 15 WSW TQE. ..BROYLES..05/20/25 ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 293 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC071-129-137-145-155-200140- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FREMONT MILLS MONTGOMERY PAGE POTTAWATTAMIE NEC025-055-067-097-109-127-131-133-147-153-155-177-200140- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CASS DOUGLAS GAGE JOHNSON LANCASTER NEMAHA OTOE PAWNEE RICHARDSON SARPY SAUNDERS WASHINGTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more