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...MARIO WEAKENING AND ITS TIME IS FLEETING AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE... As of 2:00 AM PDT Tue Sep 16 the center of Mario was located near 21.9, -115.7 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 16 2025 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 160837 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132025 0900 UTC TUE SEP 16 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 115.7W AT 16/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 4 M SEAS.... 60NE 45SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 115.7W AT 16/0900Z AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 115.5W FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 23.2N 117.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 24.6N 118.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 25.6N 119.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 26.3N 120.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 26.7N 120.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.9N 115.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0309 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe thunderstorm potential is expected to remain low through at least Day 6/Sun. A shortwave upper trough over the north-central U.S. will slowly migrate east across the Great Lakes region through the weekend. Weak deep layer flow and limited large-scale ascent will preclude severe thunderstorms. By the end of the period, around Days 7-8/Mon-Tue, medium range guidance suggests a more substantial upper trough will eject from the northern Rockies and deepen over the Plains/Midwest as a stronger surface cold front moves through the central portions of the CONUS. This could support some increasing severe thunderstorm potential, but large spread remains across various forecast guidance regarding timing and evolution of this feature as it develops east of the Rockies early next week. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0309 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe thunderstorm potential is expected to remain low through at least Day 6/Sun. A shortwave upper trough over the north-central U.S. will slowly migrate east across the Great Lakes region through the weekend. Weak deep layer flow and limited large-scale ascent will preclude severe thunderstorms. By the end of the period, around Days 7-8/Mon-Tue, medium range guidance suggests a more substantial upper trough will eject from the northern Rockies and deepen over the Plains/Midwest as a stronger surface cold front moves through the central portions of the CONUS. This could support some increasing severe thunderstorm potential, but large spread remains across various forecast guidance regarding timing and evolution of this feature as it develops east of the Rockies early next week. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0309 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe thunderstorm potential is expected to remain low through at least Day 6/Sun. A shortwave upper trough over the north-central U.S. will slowly migrate east across the Great Lakes region through the weekend. Weak deep layer flow and limited large-scale ascent will preclude severe thunderstorms. By the end of the period, around Days 7-8/Mon-Tue, medium range guidance suggests a more substantial upper trough will eject from the northern Rockies and deepen over the Plains/Midwest as a stronger surface cold front moves through the central portions of the CONUS. This could support some increasing severe thunderstorm potential, but large spread remains across various forecast guidance regarding timing and evolution of this feature as it develops east of the Rockies early next week. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0309 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe thunderstorm potential is expected to remain low through at least Day 6/Sun. A shortwave upper trough over the north-central U.S. will slowly migrate east across the Great Lakes region through the weekend. Weak deep layer flow and limited large-scale ascent will preclude severe thunderstorms. By the end of the period, around Days 7-8/Mon-Tue, medium range guidance suggests a more substantial upper trough will eject from the northern Rockies and deepen over the Plains/Midwest as a stronger surface cold front moves through the central portions of the CONUS. This could support some increasing severe thunderstorm potential, but large spread remains across various forecast guidance regarding timing and evolution of this feature as it develops east of the Rockies early next week. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0309 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe thunderstorm potential is expected to remain low through at least Day 6/Sun. A shortwave upper trough over the north-central U.S. will slowly migrate east across the Great Lakes region through the weekend. Weak deep layer flow and limited large-scale ascent will preclude severe thunderstorms. By the end of the period, around Days 7-8/Mon-Tue, medium range guidance suggests a more substantial upper trough will eject from the northern Rockies and deepen over the Plains/Midwest as a stronger surface cold front moves through the central portions of the CONUS. This could support some increasing severe thunderstorm potential, but large spread remains across various forecast guidance regarding timing and evolution of this feature as it develops east of the Rockies early next week. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... An upper low will persist over eastern MT/WY with an attendant shortwave trough extending into the central/southern Plains on Thursday. A lack of stronger height falls will preclude much in the way of surface cyclogenesis, with generally broad, weak surface low pressure extending across eastern portions of the Plains into the MO/MS Valley vicinity. Upper 50s to mid 60s F dewpoints will be in place from portions of the southern Plains into the Ozarks and northward to the Upper Midwest. Pockets of weak to moderate instability will foster scattered thunderstorm activity within this zone, but severe potential should remain limited given nebulous forcing for ascent, weak vertical shear and poor lapse rates. ..Leitman.. 09/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... An upper low will persist over eastern MT/WY with an attendant shortwave trough extending into the central/southern Plains on Thursday. A lack of stronger height falls will preclude much in the way of surface cyclogenesis, with generally broad, weak surface low pressure extending across eastern portions of the Plains into the MO/MS Valley vicinity. Upper 50s to mid 60s F dewpoints will be in place from portions of the southern Plains into the Ozarks and northward to the Upper Midwest. Pockets of weak to moderate instability will foster scattered thunderstorm activity within this zone, but severe potential should remain limited given nebulous forcing for ascent, weak vertical shear and poor lapse rates. ..Leitman.. 09/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... An upper low will persist over eastern MT/WY with an attendant shortwave trough extending into the central/southern Plains on Thursday. A lack of stronger height falls will preclude much in the way of surface cyclogenesis, with generally broad, weak surface low pressure extending across eastern portions of the Plains into the MO/MS Valley vicinity. Upper 50s to mid 60s F dewpoints will be in place from portions of the southern Plains into the Ozarks and northward to the Upper Midwest. Pockets of weak to moderate instability will foster scattered thunderstorm activity within this zone, but severe potential should remain limited given nebulous forcing for ascent, weak vertical shear and poor lapse rates. ..Leitman.. 09/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... An upper low will persist over eastern MT/WY with an attendant shortwave trough extending into the central/southern Plains on Thursday. A lack of stronger height falls will preclude much in the way of surface cyclogenesis, with generally broad, weak surface low pressure extending across eastern portions of the Plains into the MO/MS Valley vicinity. Upper 50s to mid 60s F dewpoints will be in place from portions of the southern Plains into the Ozarks and northward to the Upper Midwest. Pockets of weak to moderate instability will foster scattered thunderstorm activity within this zone, but severe potential should remain limited given nebulous forcing for ascent, weak vertical shear and poor lapse rates. ..Leitman.. 09/16/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure will remain in place over much of the central and northern Rockies due to a stationary mid-level trough over the northern High Plains tomorrow (Wednesday). This synoptic pattern will once again promote mainly quiescent fire weather conditions over much of the Interior west. A dry low-level airmass will also linger over portions of the Ohio Valley, atop drying fuels. However, the lack of stronger surface winds suggests that Elevated highlights are not currently warranted. ..Squitieri.. 09/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure will remain in place over much of the central and northern Rockies due to a stationary mid-level trough over the northern High Plains tomorrow (Wednesday). This synoptic pattern will once again promote mainly quiescent fire weather conditions over much of the Interior west. A dry low-level airmass will also linger over portions of the Ohio Valley, atop drying fuels. However, the lack of stronger surface winds suggests that Elevated highlights are not currently warranted. ..Squitieri.. 09/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure will remain in place over much of the central and northern Rockies due to a stationary mid-level trough over the northern High Plains tomorrow (Wednesday). This synoptic pattern will once again promote mainly quiescent fire weather conditions over much of the Interior west. A dry low-level airmass will also linger over portions of the Ohio Valley, atop drying fuels. However, the lack of stronger surface winds suggests that Elevated highlights are not currently warranted. ..Squitieri.. 09/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure will remain in place over much of the central and northern Rockies due to a stationary mid-level trough over the northern High Plains tomorrow (Wednesday). This synoptic pattern will once again promote mainly quiescent fire weather conditions over much of the Interior west. A dry low-level airmass will also linger over portions of the Ohio Valley, atop drying fuels. However, the lack of stronger surface winds suggests that Elevated highlights are not currently warranted. ..Squitieri.. 09/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the Pacific Northwest Coastline as another upper trough farther to the east begins to overspread the northern Plains today. Surface high pressure will become established over the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies, promoting quiescent fire weather conditions. Offshore flow is expected across the Pacific Northwest, especially along the windward side of the Cascades. While locally dry and breezy conditions may occur, the sparse nature of such conditions over modestly receptive fuels precludes fire weather highlights. ..Squitieri.. 09/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the Pacific Northwest Coastline as another upper trough farther to the east begins to overspread the northern Plains today. Surface high pressure will become established over the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies, promoting quiescent fire weather conditions. Offshore flow is expected across the Pacific Northwest, especially along the windward side of the Cascades. While locally dry and breezy conditions may occur, the sparse nature of such conditions over modestly receptive fuels precludes fire weather highlights. ..Squitieri.. 09/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the Pacific Northwest Coastline as another upper trough farther to the east begins to overspread the northern Plains today. Surface high pressure will become established over the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies, promoting quiescent fire weather conditions. Offshore flow is expected across the Pacific Northwest, especially along the windward side of the Cascades. While locally dry and breezy conditions may occur, the sparse nature of such conditions over modestly receptive fuels precludes fire weather highlights. ..Squitieri.. 09/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the Pacific Northwest Coastline as another upper trough farther to the east begins to overspread the northern Plains today. Surface high pressure will become established over the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies, promoting quiescent fire weather conditions. Offshore flow is expected across the Pacific Northwest, especially along the windward side of the Cascades. While locally dry and breezy conditions may occur, the sparse nature of such conditions over modestly receptive fuels precludes fire weather highlights. ..Squitieri.. 09/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential is expected to remain limited on Wednesday. ...Central/Southern High Plains Vicinity... An upper trough will overspread the northern Plains to the southern High Plains. With time, an upper low is forecast to develop within the broader troughing regime over the northern High Plains vicinity. Deep-layer flow will generally be weak, limiting vertical shear. However, a surface front is forecast to be oriented from far southeast CO/northeast NM eastward along the KS/OK border. East/southeasterly low-level flow near the boundary could enhanced vertical shear locally, with effective shear values up to 25-30 kt possible by late afternoon/evening. Boundary layer moisture will be modest, in the 50s to low 60s F from the Raton Mesa vicinity into southwest KS and the OK/TX Panhandles. Nevertheless, steep midlevel lapse rates and cool temperatures aloft will support MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg. Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop by late afternoon in the upslope flow regime. The strongest storms could produce sub-severe hail and gusty winds across southeast CO/northeast NM, southwest KS and portions of the OK/TX Panhandles. ...Northern OK into MN/WI... A seasonally moist airmass will be in place to the east of a surface boundary extending from eastern SD into central/southwest KS by late afternoon. Rounds of showers and thunderstorms are possible, and may be ongoing across parts of the region Wednesday morning. This activity and associated cloud cover cast doubt on where stronger destabilization will occur through peak heating. Furthermore, vertical shear is expected to remain weak, and lapse rates will be poor, especially with northward extent. A strong storm or two will be possible where stronger destabilization occurs, but overall severe potential is expected to remain limited. ..Leitman.. 09/16/2025 Read more