Aggregator

No watches are valid as of Mon Sep 15 23:31:01 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Sep 15 23:31:01 UTC 2025.

MD 2082 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR MUCH OF WYOMING INTO FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 2082 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0433 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025 Areas affected...Much of Wyoming into far western South Dakota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 152133Z - 152330Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A few severe gusts may accompany the stronger storm cores this afternoon into early evening. DISCUSSION...High-based thunderstorms have gradually been increasing in intensity this afternoon. These storms are overspreading a very dry boundary layer, with RAP forecast soundings showing inverted-v profiles extending up to 600 mb, resulting in up to 1200 J/kg DCAPE. Furthermore, these storms are embedded in a 500 mb wind maximum, where 30-40 kts of effective bulk shear are in place. As such, sustained storms atop a well-mixed boundary layer may produce isolated severe gusts, especially where deeper cores may materialize this afternoon into the early evening hours. ..Squitieri/Gleason.. 09/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW... LAT...LON 43281021 44960558 45200369 44890291 44320272 43750295 43360342 42900413 42490515 42250619 42130731 42140834 42310928 43281021 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 152304
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Mon Sep 15 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Mario, located a few hundred miles west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula.

Off the Coast of Southwestern Mexico:
An elongated trough of low pressure located several hundred miles
off the coast of southern Mexico is producing disorganized showers
and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is
likely to form during the middle to latter part of this week as it
moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the central east
Pacific.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

MD 2083 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN IOWA INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS...FAR SOUTHWESTERN TENNESSEE...FAR NORTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI
Mesoscale Discussion 2083 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0449 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025 Areas affected...portions of eastern Iowa into central Missouri...northern and central Arkansas...far southwestern Tennessee...far northwestern Mississippi Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 152149Z - 152315Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A couple instances of damaging gusts or hail may accompany the stronger, longer-lived storm cores this afternoon into early evening. DISCUSSION...Pulse cellular convection has recently intensified and become more widespread through the afternoon, with some 40+ dBZ echoes extending up to 50 kft per latest MRMS mosaic radar data (especially in eastern MO). These storms percolate in intensity amid 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE along a theta-e axis, which is driven primarily by seasonal low-level moisture and steep boundary-layer lapse rates. Despite adequate buoyancy, vertical wind shear over the middle MS Valley is quite poor, suggesting that storm organization should be limited at best. While isolated damaging gusts or an instance of marginally severe hail may occur, the severe threat should remain sparse this afternoon into the evening hours. ..Squitieri/Gleason.. 09/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...DVN...LZK...SGF...DMX...EAX... TSA... LAT...LON 35639405 36219414 37499392 39239333 41829278 42079228 41959200 41559183 40409168 39879167 38929161 38079150 37189102 36689055 36058979 35698939 35318907 34888916 34548948 34429008 34479099 34699203 35119332 35639405 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

Crop and pasture stress remained an issue across the Far West. Limited pockets of precipitation mitigated the stress impacts in some areas. Pima and upland cotton were doing well in the western parts of the district, but yield potential suffered in the east. Scattered rain showers contributed to weeds and grass in alfalfa. Nutritional supplementation was required district-wide as livestock conditions continued to decline in late summer. AgriLife Today (Texas A&M) (College Station, Texas), Sep 3, 2025

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 15 Sep 2025 20:35:36 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 15 Sep 2025 21:22:18 GMT

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0405 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z An upper low is forecast to stall over the central US this week with weak ridging temporarily amplifying on either side. The semi-blocked pattern should persist, keeping fire-weather conditions relatively quiescent through much of the extended forecast period. By this weekend, the ridging will break down as a more progressive upper trough moves from the Northwest into the Rockies, while a stronger upper low will move offshore with a cold front across the Northeast. This, along with an influx of tropical moisture over the West, may bring an increase in fire-weather potential later in the extended forecast period. ...Northwest... A brief period of easterly flow is expected over the western Columbia Basin and Cascade Range late D2/Tuesday into early D3/Wednesday. High pressure behind the departing upper low will support a modest increase in offshore pressure gradients through midweek, before onshore flow returns. Occasional gusts to 25+ mph may briefly overlap with lower humidity supporting some local fire-weather concerns across the higher Cascades and through terrain gaps. High pressure is then forecast to build over much of the West through the end of the week. This will allow for significant warming and some localized fire-weather concerns as fuels dry. Fire-weather concerns may increase across the Columbia Basin through the weekend and into next week as stronger zonal flow returns. ...Eastern US... Warm and dry conditions are expected over much of the eastern/southeastern US through the extended forecast period. However, winds are expected to remain light through the week with high pressure in place. Area fuels will continue to dry with ongoing drought. Some potential for gusty northwest winds may develop D5/Friday through the weekend behind a cold front. The gusty offshore winds and dry conditions could potentially bolster fire-weather concerns into week 2. For now, dry conditions may promote local fire-weather concerns with the driest fuels this weekend. ...Thunderstorms... Associated with the remnants of TS Mario over the eastern Pacific, mid-level moisture and increasingly strong southwesterly/southerly flow will overspread much of the West beginning the middle of this week. The increase in moisture should favor scattered thunderstorms with lightning potential into the weekend, especially over portions of CA and the Southwest. However, wetting rainfall potential also appears high which could temper area fuels. Models vary on the degree of moisture and strength of the upper ridge into the weekend, casting significant uncertainty on the dry thunderstorm potential, especially farther north. Still, some lightning potential may evolve over the Northwest and northern Great Basin later this week into the weekend where fuels are expected to be more receptive. ..Lyons.. 09/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0405 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z An upper low is forecast to stall over the central US this week with weak ridging temporarily amplifying on either side. The semi-blocked pattern should persist, keeping fire-weather conditions relatively quiescent through much of the extended forecast period. By this weekend, the ridging will break down as a more progressive upper trough moves from the Northwest into the Rockies, while a stronger upper low will move offshore with a cold front across the Northeast. This, along with an influx of tropical moisture over the West, may bring an increase in fire-weather potential later in the extended forecast period. ...Northwest... A brief period of easterly flow is expected over the western Columbia Basin and Cascade Range late D2/Tuesday into early D3/Wednesday. High pressure behind the departing upper low will support a modest increase in offshore pressure gradients through midweek, before onshore flow returns. Occasional gusts to 25+ mph may briefly overlap with lower humidity supporting some local fire-weather concerns across the higher Cascades and through terrain gaps. High pressure is then forecast to build over much of the West through the end of the week. This will allow for significant warming and some localized fire-weather concerns as fuels dry. Fire-weather concerns may increase across the Columbia Basin through the weekend and into next week as stronger zonal flow returns. ...Eastern US... Warm and dry conditions are expected over much of the eastern/southeastern US through the extended forecast period. However, winds are expected to remain light through the week with high pressure in place. Area fuels will continue to dry with ongoing drought. Some potential for gusty northwest winds may develop D5/Friday through the weekend behind a cold front. The gusty offshore winds and dry conditions could potentially bolster fire-weather concerns into week 2. For now, dry conditions may promote local fire-weather concerns with the driest fuels this weekend. ...Thunderstorms... Associated with the remnants of TS Mario over the eastern Pacific, mid-level moisture and increasingly strong southwesterly/southerly flow will overspread much of the West beginning the middle of this week. The increase in moisture should favor scattered thunderstorms with lightning potential into the weekend, especially over portions of CA and the Southwest. However, wetting rainfall potential also appears high which could temper area fuels. Models vary on the degree of moisture and strength of the upper ridge into the weekend, casting significant uncertainty on the dry thunderstorm potential, especially farther north. Still, some lightning potential may evolve over the Northwest and northern Great Basin later this week into the weekend where fuels are expected to be more receptive. ..Lyons.. 09/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0405 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z An upper low is forecast to stall over the central US this week with weak ridging temporarily amplifying on either side. The semi-blocked pattern should persist, keeping fire-weather conditions relatively quiescent through much of the extended forecast period. By this weekend, the ridging will break down as a more progressive upper trough moves from the Northwest into the Rockies, while a stronger upper low will move offshore with a cold front across the Northeast. This, along with an influx of tropical moisture over the West, may bring an increase in fire-weather potential later in the extended forecast period. ...Northwest... A brief period of easterly flow is expected over the western Columbia Basin and Cascade Range late D2/Tuesday into early D3/Wednesday. High pressure behind the departing upper low will support a modest increase in offshore pressure gradients through midweek, before onshore flow returns. Occasional gusts to 25+ mph may briefly overlap with lower humidity supporting some local fire-weather concerns across the higher Cascades and through terrain gaps. High pressure is then forecast to build over much of the West through the end of the week. This will allow for significant warming and some localized fire-weather concerns as fuels dry. Fire-weather concerns may increase across the Columbia Basin through the weekend and into next week as stronger zonal flow returns. ...Eastern US... Warm and dry conditions are expected over much of the eastern/southeastern US through the extended forecast period. However, winds are expected to remain light through the week with high pressure in place. Area fuels will continue to dry with ongoing drought. Some potential for gusty northwest winds may develop D5/Friday through the weekend behind a cold front. The gusty offshore winds and dry conditions could potentially bolster fire-weather concerns into week 2. For now, dry conditions may promote local fire-weather concerns with the driest fuels this weekend. ...Thunderstorms... Associated with the remnants of TS Mario over the eastern Pacific, mid-level moisture and increasingly strong southwesterly/southerly flow will overspread much of the West beginning the middle of this week. The increase in moisture should favor scattered thunderstorms with lightning potential into the weekend, especially over portions of CA and the Southwest. However, wetting rainfall potential also appears high which could temper area fuels. Models vary on the degree of moisture and strength of the upper ridge into the weekend, casting significant uncertainty on the dry thunderstorm potential, especially farther north. Still, some lightning potential may evolve over the Northwest and northern Great Basin later this week into the weekend where fuels are expected to be more receptive. ..Lyons.. 09/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0405 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z An upper low is forecast to stall over the central US this week with weak ridging temporarily amplifying on either side. The semi-blocked pattern should persist, keeping fire-weather conditions relatively quiescent through much of the extended forecast period. By this weekend, the ridging will break down as a more progressive upper trough moves from the Northwest into the Rockies, while a stronger upper low will move offshore with a cold front across the Northeast. This, along with an influx of tropical moisture over the West, may bring an increase in fire-weather potential later in the extended forecast period. ...Northwest... A brief period of easterly flow is expected over the western Columbia Basin and Cascade Range late D2/Tuesday into early D3/Wednesday. High pressure behind the departing upper low will support a modest increase in offshore pressure gradients through midweek, before onshore flow returns. Occasional gusts to 25+ mph may briefly overlap with lower humidity supporting some local fire-weather concerns across the higher Cascades and through terrain gaps. High pressure is then forecast to build over much of the West through the end of the week. This will allow for significant warming and some localized fire-weather concerns as fuels dry. Fire-weather concerns may increase across the Columbia Basin through the weekend and into next week as stronger zonal flow returns. ...Eastern US... Warm and dry conditions are expected over much of the eastern/southeastern US through the extended forecast period. However, winds are expected to remain light through the week with high pressure in place. Area fuels will continue to dry with ongoing drought. Some potential for gusty northwest winds may develop D5/Friday through the weekend behind a cold front. The gusty offshore winds and dry conditions could potentially bolster fire-weather concerns into week 2. For now, dry conditions may promote local fire-weather concerns with the driest fuels this weekend. ...Thunderstorms... Associated with the remnants of TS Mario over the eastern Pacific, mid-level moisture and increasingly strong southwesterly/southerly flow will overspread much of the West beginning the middle of this week. The increase in moisture should favor scattered thunderstorms with lightning potential into the weekend, especially over portions of CA and the Southwest. However, wetting rainfall potential also appears high which could temper area fuels. Models vary on the degree of moisture and strength of the upper ridge into the weekend, casting significant uncertainty on the dry thunderstorm potential, especially farther north. Still, some lightning potential may evolve over the Northwest and northern Great Basin later this week into the weekend where fuels are expected to be more receptive. ..Lyons.. 09/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0405 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z An upper low is forecast to stall over the central US this week with weak ridging temporarily amplifying on either side. The semi-blocked pattern should persist, keeping fire-weather conditions relatively quiescent through much of the extended forecast period. By this weekend, the ridging will break down as a more progressive upper trough moves from the Northwest into the Rockies, while a stronger upper low will move offshore with a cold front across the Northeast. This, along with an influx of tropical moisture over the West, may bring an increase in fire-weather potential later in the extended forecast period. ...Northwest... A brief period of easterly flow is expected over the western Columbia Basin and Cascade Range late D2/Tuesday into early D3/Wednesday. High pressure behind the departing upper low will support a modest increase in offshore pressure gradients through midweek, before onshore flow returns. Occasional gusts to 25+ mph may briefly overlap with lower humidity supporting some local fire-weather concerns across the higher Cascades and through terrain gaps. High pressure is then forecast to build over much of the West through the end of the week. This will allow for significant warming and some localized fire-weather concerns as fuels dry. Fire-weather concerns may increase across the Columbia Basin through the weekend and into next week as stronger zonal flow returns. ...Eastern US... Warm and dry conditions are expected over much of the eastern/southeastern US through the extended forecast period. However, winds are expected to remain light through the week with high pressure in place. Area fuels will continue to dry with ongoing drought. Some potential for gusty northwest winds may develop D5/Friday through the weekend behind a cold front. The gusty offshore winds and dry conditions could potentially bolster fire-weather concerns into week 2. For now, dry conditions may promote local fire-weather concerns with the driest fuels this weekend. ...Thunderstorms... Associated with the remnants of TS Mario over the eastern Pacific, mid-level moisture and increasingly strong southwesterly/southerly flow will overspread much of the West beginning the middle of this week. The increase in moisture should favor scattered thunderstorms with lightning potential into the weekend, especially over portions of CA and the Southwest. However, wetting rainfall potential also appears high which could temper area fuels. Models vary on the degree of moisture and strength of the upper ridge into the weekend, casting significant uncertainty on the dry thunderstorm potential, especially farther north. Still, some lightning potential may evolve over the Northwest and northern Great Basin later this week into the weekend where fuels are expected to be more receptive. ..Lyons.. 09/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0405 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z An upper low is forecast to stall over the central US this week with weak ridging temporarily amplifying on either side. The semi-blocked pattern should persist, keeping fire-weather conditions relatively quiescent through much of the extended forecast period. By this weekend, the ridging will break down as a more progressive upper trough moves from the Northwest into the Rockies, while a stronger upper low will move offshore with a cold front across the Northeast. This, along with an influx of tropical moisture over the West, may bring an increase in fire-weather potential later in the extended forecast period. ...Northwest... A brief period of easterly flow is expected over the western Columbia Basin and Cascade Range late D2/Tuesday into early D3/Wednesday. High pressure behind the departing upper low will support a modest increase in offshore pressure gradients through midweek, before onshore flow returns. Occasional gusts to 25+ mph may briefly overlap with lower humidity supporting some local fire-weather concerns across the higher Cascades and through terrain gaps. High pressure is then forecast to build over much of the West through the end of the week. This will allow for significant warming and some localized fire-weather concerns as fuels dry. Fire-weather concerns may increase across the Columbia Basin through the weekend and into next week as stronger zonal flow returns. ...Eastern US... Warm and dry conditions are expected over much of the eastern/southeastern US through the extended forecast period. However, winds are expected to remain light through the week with high pressure in place. Area fuels will continue to dry with ongoing drought. Some potential for gusty northwest winds may develop D5/Friday through the weekend behind a cold front. The gusty offshore winds and dry conditions could potentially bolster fire-weather concerns into week 2. For now, dry conditions may promote local fire-weather concerns with the driest fuels this weekend. ...Thunderstorms... Associated with the remnants of TS Mario over the eastern Pacific, mid-level moisture and increasingly strong southwesterly/southerly flow will overspread much of the West beginning the middle of this week. The increase in moisture should favor scattered thunderstorms with lightning potential into the weekend, especially over portions of CA and the Southwest. However, wetting rainfall potential also appears high which could temper area fuels. Models vary on the degree of moisture and strength of the upper ridge into the weekend, casting significant uncertainty on the dry thunderstorm potential, especially farther north. Still, some lightning potential may evolve over the Northwest and northern Great Basin later this week into the weekend where fuels are expected to be more receptive. ..Lyons.. 09/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0405 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z An upper low is forecast to stall over the central US this week with weak ridging temporarily amplifying on either side. The semi-blocked pattern should persist, keeping fire-weather conditions relatively quiescent through much of the extended forecast period. By this weekend, the ridging will break down as a more progressive upper trough moves from the Northwest into the Rockies, while a stronger upper low will move offshore with a cold front across the Northeast. This, along with an influx of tropical moisture over the West, may bring an increase in fire-weather potential later in the extended forecast period. ...Northwest... A brief period of easterly flow is expected over the western Columbia Basin and Cascade Range late D2/Tuesday into early D3/Wednesday. High pressure behind the departing upper low will support a modest increase in offshore pressure gradients through midweek, before onshore flow returns. Occasional gusts to 25+ mph may briefly overlap with lower humidity supporting some local fire-weather concerns across the higher Cascades and through terrain gaps. High pressure is then forecast to build over much of the West through the end of the week. This will allow for significant warming and some localized fire-weather concerns as fuels dry. Fire-weather concerns may increase across the Columbia Basin through the weekend and into next week as stronger zonal flow returns. ...Eastern US... Warm and dry conditions are expected over much of the eastern/southeastern US through the extended forecast period. However, winds are expected to remain light through the week with high pressure in place. Area fuels will continue to dry with ongoing drought. Some potential for gusty northwest winds may develop D5/Friday through the weekend behind a cold front. The gusty offshore winds and dry conditions could potentially bolster fire-weather concerns into week 2. For now, dry conditions may promote local fire-weather concerns with the driest fuels this weekend. ...Thunderstorms... Associated with the remnants of TS Mario over the eastern Pacific, mid-level moisture and increasingly strong southwesterly/southerly flow will overspread much of the West beginning the middle of this week. The increase in moisture should favor scattered thunderstorms with lightning potential into the weekend, especially over portions of CA and the Southwest. However, wetting rainfall potential also appears high which could temper area fuels. Models vary on the degree of moisture and strength of the upper ridge into the weekend, casting significant uncertainty on the dry thunderstorm potential, especially farther north. Still, some lightning potential may evolve over the Northwest and northern Great Basin later this week into the weekend where fuels are expected to be more receptive. ..Lyons.. 09/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0405 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z An upper low is forecast to stall over the central US this week with weak ridging temporarily amplifying on either side. The semi-blocked pattern should persist, keeping fire-weather conditions relatively quiescent through much of the extended forecast period. By this weekend, the ridging will break down as a more progressive upper trough moves from the Northwest into the Rockies, while a stronger upper low will move offshore with a cold front across the Northeast. This, along with an influx of tropical moisture over the West, may bring an increase in fire-weather potential later in the extended forecast period. ...Northwest... A brief period of easterly flow is expected over the western Columbia Basin and Cascade Range late D2/Tuesday into early D3/Wednesday. High pressure behind the departing upper low will support a modest increase in offshore pressure gradients through midweek, before onshore flow returns. Occasional gusts to 25+ mph may briefly overlap with lower humidity supporting some local fire-weather concerns across the higher Cascades and through terrain gaps. High pressure is then forecast to build over much of the West through the end of the week. This will allow for significant warming and some localized fire-weather concerns as fuels dry. Fire-weather concerns may increase across the Columbia Basin through the weekend and into next week as stronger zonal flow returns. ...Eastern US... Warm and dry conditions are expected over much of the eastern/southeastern US through the extended forecast period. However, winds are expected to remain light through the week with high pressure in place. Area fuels will continue to dry with ongoing drought. Some potential for gusty northwest winds may develop D5/Friday through the weekend behind a cold front. The gusty offshore winds and dry conditions could potentially bolster fire-weather concerns into week 2. For now, dry conditions may promote local fire-weather concerns with the driest fuels this weekend. ...Thunderstorms... Associated with the remnants of TS Mario over the eastern Pacific, mid-level moisture and increasingly strong southwesterly/southerly flow will overspread much of the West beginning the middle of this week. The increase in moisture should favor scattered thunderstorms with lightning potential into the weekend, especially over portions of CA and the Southwest. However, wetting rainfall potential also appears high which could temper area fuels. Models vary on the degree of moisture and strength of the upper ridge into the weekend, casting significant uncertainty on the dry thunderstorm potential, especially farther north. Still, some lightning potential may evolve over the Northwest and northern Great Basin later this week into the weekend where fuels are expected to be more receptive. ..Lyons.. 09/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0405 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z An upper low is forecast to stall over the central US this week with weak ridging temporarily amplifying on either side. The semi-blocked pattern should persist, keeping fire-weather conditions relatively quiescent through much of the extended forecast period. By this weekend, the ridging will break down as a more progressive upper trough moves from the Northwest into the Rockies, while a stronger upper low will move offshore with a cold front across the Northeast. This, along with an influx of tropical moisture over the West, may bring an increase in fire-weather potential later in the extended forecast period. ...Northwest... A brief period of easterly flow is expected over the western Columbia Basin and Cascade Range late D2/Tuesday into early D3/Wednesday. High pressure behind the departing upper low will support a modest increase in offshore pressure gradients through midweek, before onshore flow returns. Occasional gusts to 25+ mph may briefly overlap with lower humidity supporting some local fire-weather concerns across the higher Cascades and through terrain gaps. High pressure is then forecast to build over much of the West through the end of the week. This will allow for significant warming and some localized fire-weather concerns as fuels dry. Fire-weather concerns may increase across the Columbia Basin through the weekend and into next week as stronger zonal flow returns. ...Eastern US... Warm and dry conditions are expected over much of the eastern/southeastern US through the extended forecast period. However, winds are expected to remain light through the week with high pressure in place. Area fuels will continue to dry with ongoing drought. Some potential for gusty northwest winds may develop D5/Friday through the weekend behind a cold front. The gusty offshore winds and dry conditions could potentially bolster fire-weather concerns into week 2. For now, dry conditions may promote local fire-weather concerns with the driest fuels this weekend. ...Thunderstorms... Associated with the remnants of TS Mario over the eastern Pacific, mid-level moisture and increasingly strong southwesterly/southerly flow will overspread much of the West beginning the middle of this week. The increase in moisture should favor scattered thunderstorms with lightning potential into the weekend, especially over portions of CA and the Southwest. However, wetting rainfall potential also appears high which could temper area fuels. Models vary on the degree of moisture and strength of the upper ridge into the weekend, casting significant uncertainty on the dry thunderstorm potential, especially farther north. Still, some lightning potential may evolve over the Northwest and northern Great Basin later this week into the weekend where fuels are expected to be more receptive. ..Lyons.. 09/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0405 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z An upper low is forecast to stall over the central US this week with weak ridging temporarily amplifying on either side. The semi-blocked pattern should persist, keeping fire-weather conditions relatively quiescent through much of the extended forecast period. By this weekend, the ridging will break down as a more progressive upper trough moves from the Northwest into the Rockies, while a stronger upper low will move offshore with a cold front across the Northeast. This, along with an influx of tropical moisture over the West, may bring an increase in fire-weather potential later in the extended forecast period. ...Northwest... A brief period of easterly flow is expected over the western Columbia Basin and Cascade Range late D2/Tuesday into early D3/Wednesday. High pressure behind the departing upper low will support a modest increase in offshore pressure gradients through midweek, before onshore flow returns. Occasional gusts to 25+ mph may briefly overlap with lower humidity supporting some local fire-weather concerns across the higher Cascades and through terrain gaps. High pressure is then forecast to build over much of the West through the end of the week. This will allow for significant warming and some localized fire-weather concerns as fuels dry. Fire-weather concerns may increase across the Columbia Basin through the weekend and into next week as stronger zonal flow returns. ...Eastern US... Warm and dry conditions are expected over much of the eastern/southeastern US through the extended forecast period. However, winds are expected to remain light through the week with high pressure in place. Area fuels will continue to dry with ongoing drought. Some potential for gusty northwest winds may develop D5/Friday through the weekend behind a cold front. The gusty offshore winds and dry conditions could potentially bolster fire-weather concerns into week 2. For now, dry conditions may promote local fire-weather concerns with the driest fuels this weekend. ...Thunderstorms... Associated with the remnants of TS Mario over the eastern Pacific, mid-level moisture and increasingly strong southwesterly/southerly flow will overspread much of the West beginning the middle of this week. The increase in moisture should favor scattered thunderstorms with lightning potential into the weekend, especially over portions of CA and the Southwest. However, wetting rainfall potential also appears high which could temper area fuels. Models vary on the degree of moisture and strength of the upper ridge into the weekend, casting significant uncertainty on the dry thunderstorm potential, especially farther north. Still, some lightning potential may evolve over the Northwest and northern Great Basin later this week into the weekend where fuels are expected to be more receptive. ..Lyons.. 09/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 15 Sep 2025 20:35:36 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 15 Sep 2025 20:35:36 GMT

Issued at 200 PM MST Mon Sep 15 2025 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 152034 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132025 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 200 PM MST Mon Sep 15 2025 The satellite presentation has improved with Mario during the day, with a more circular central dense overcast and consistent convection. A recent 1838Z GPM microwave pass also shows the development of some inner-core features. Subjective and objective Dvorak estimates range from 45-65 kt, a bit higher than earlier, so the initial intensity is set to 55 kt for this advisory. Mario is now moving northwestward (305/11 kt), steered between a mid-level ridge over northern Mexico and a mid-level low to its northwest. The most notable thing about the track forecast is what happens when Mario becomes a remnant low in a couple of days. Model guidance has been leaning more to the northeast during the past few cycles as they seem to have caught onto a more vertically intact Mario. While the new official forecast has been shifted to the north, it remains on the western side of the model consensus, closest to the ECMWF and Google Deep Mind solutions. The intensity forecast is a little tricky for Mario with it soon crossing into cooler waters with higher shear. While the forecast shows weakening, it could hang on a bit stronger in the short-term if it is able to take advantage of its primitive inner-core. Mario should begin to weaken in earnest on Tuesday when it gets over cold waters with much higher shear, causing it to lose convection in about 36 h and totally dissipate by 72h. The new intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, between the model consensus and the HFIP Corrected Consensus model HCCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 20.8N 114.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 16/0600Z 21.8N 115.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 16/1800Z 23.3N 117.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 17/0600Z 24.4N 118.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 17/1800Z 25.4N 119.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 18/0600Z 26.3N 120.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake/Putnam

Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 15 2025 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 152034 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132025 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 2100 UTC MON SEP 15 2025 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 25N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 7(14) 2(16) X(16) X(16) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/PUTNAM