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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into early evening across a portion of the central Great Plains. Large hail, severe gusts, and a tornado or two may occur. ...Eastern Colorado/Wyoming and Central Plains... A semi-closed upper low will continue to spread southeastward today over Wyoming and nearby parts of southern Montana and northern Colorado, as a cold front similarly settles southeastward across the Front Range/central High Plains, while a weak surface wave develops northeastward along the front. Increasing forcing for ascent/strengthening flow aloft related to a lead portion of the upper trough will influence steadily increasing and organized thunderstorm development into the afternoon, especially within the immediate post-frontal environment. Buoyancy will be maximized from far northeast Colorado into central Nebraska where low to mid 60s F dewpoints beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will support MLCAPE around 2000-2500 J/kg. The resulting combination of lift, instability, and moderate shear (generally around 35 kt of effective bulk shear) will support strong to severe storms. Large hail appears to be the most prominent hazard (especially western Nebraska), but some clustering could lead to a few strong gusts as well. Presence of the surface low/boundary and backed low-level flow may result in a low-probability tornado risk as well. ...Iowa/northern Missouri/eastern Nebraska... Some stronger/locally severe pulse-type storms may occur late this afternoon through around sunset within the strong instability/weak deep-layer flow regime. ...Northern Minnesota/Lake Superior... Severe-weather potential should be limited across this region, but will retain low-severe probabilities given somewhat stronger deep-layer shear and a low or conditional-type potential near the advancing front. ...Virginia Tidewater/far northeast North Carolina... Surface reflection of a semi-stacked cyclone is just off the far northeast corner of North Carolina at midday. This low should continue to drift north-northwest today and tonight, while likely gradually weakening, although its northern peripheral strong low-level east/northeasterly winds (reference Wakefield WSR-88D VWP) will likely persist through the day. Dry northerly continental trajectories inland will relegate meaningful (albeit limited) buoyancy to the immediate coasts of the Virginia Tidewater/Maryland shore, and otherwise offshore. This will similarly relegate any transient supercell and low-end tornado/wind risk to the immediate coast, but more likely just offshore. ..Guyer/Thornton.. 09/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into early evening across a portion of the central Great Plains. Large hail, severe gusts, and a tornado or two may occur. ...Eastern Colorado/Wyoming and Central Plains... A semi-closed upper low will continue to spread southeastward today over Wyoming and nearby parts of southern Montana and northern Colorado, as a cold front similarly settles southeastward across the Front Range/central High Plains, while a weak surface wave develops northeastward along the front. Increasing forcing for ascent/strengthening flow aloft related to a lead portion of the upper trough will influence steadily increasing and organized thunderstorm development into the afternoon, especially within the immediate post-frontal environment. Buoyancy will be maximized from far northeast Colorado into central Nebraska where low to mid 60s F dewpoints beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will support MLCAPE around 2000-2500 J/kg. The resulting combination of lift, instability, and moderate shear (generally around 35 kt of effective bulk shear) will support strong to severe storms. Large hail appears to be the most prominent hazard (especially western Nebraska), but some clustering could lead to a few strong gusts as well. Presence of the surface low/boundary and backed low-level flow may result in a low-probability tornado risk as well. ...Iowa/northern Missouri/eastern Nebraska... Some stronger/locally severe pulse-type storms may occur late this afternoon through around sunset within the strong instability/weak deep-layer flow regime. ...Northern Minnesota/Lake Superior... Severe-weather potential should be limited across this region, but will retain low-severe probabilities given somewhat stronger deep-layer shear and a low or conditional-type potential near the advancing front. ...Virginia Tidewater/far northeast North Carolina... Surface reflection of a semi-stacked cyclone is just off the far northeast corner of North Carolina at midday. This low should continue to drift north-northwest today and tonight, while likely gradually weakening, although its northern peripheral strong low-level east/northeasterly winds (reference Wakefield WSR-88D VWP) will likely persist through the day. Dry northerly continental trajectories inland will relegate meaningful (albeit limited) buoyancy to the immediate coasts of the Virginia Tidewater/Maryland shore, and otherwise offshore. This will similarly relegate any transient supercell and low-end tornado/wind risk to the immediate coast, but more likely just offshore. ..Guyer/Thornton.. 09/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into early evening across a portion of the central Great Plains. Large hail, severe gusts, and a tornado or two may occur. ...Eastern Colorado/Wyoming and Central Plains... A semi-closed upper low will continue to spread southeastward today over Wyoming and nearby parts of southern Montana and northern Colorado, as a cold front similarly settles southeastward across the Front Range/central High Plains, while a weak surface wave develops northeastward along the front. Increasing forcing for ascent/strengthening flow aloft related to a lead portion of the upper trough will influence steadily increasing and organized thunderstorm development into the afternoon, especially within the immediate post-frontal environment. Buoyancy will be maximized from far northeast Colorado into central Nebraska where low to mid 60s F dewpoints beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will support MLCAPE around 2000-2500 J/kg. The resulting combination of lift, instability, and moderate shear (generally around 35 kt of effective bulk shear) will support strong to severe storms. Large hail appears to be the most prominent hazard (especially western Nebraska), but some clustering could lead to a few strong gusts as well. Presence of the surface low/boundary and backed low-level flow may result in a low-probability tornado risk as well. ...Iowa/northern Missouri/eastern Nebraska... Some stronger/locally severe pulse-type storms may occur late this afternoon through around sunset within the strong instability/weak deep-layer flow regime. ...Northern Minnesota/Lake Superior... Severe-weather potential should be limited across this region, but will retain low-severe probabilities given somewhat stronger deep-layer shear and a low or conditional-type potential near the advancing front. ...Virginia Tidewater/far northeast North Carolina... Surface reflection of a semi-stacked cyclone is just off the far northeast corner of North Carolina at midday. This low should continue to drift north-northwest today and tonight, while likely gradually weakening, although its northern peripheral strong low-level east/northeasterly winds (reference Wakefield WSR-88D VWP) will likely persist through the day. Dry northerly continental trajectories inland will relegate meaningful (albeit limited) buoyancy to the immediate coasts of the Virginia Tidewater/Maryland shore, and otherwise offshore. This will similarly relegate any transient supercell and low-end tornado/wind risk to the immediate coast, but more likely just offshore. ..Guyer/Thornton.. 09/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into early evening across a portion of the central Great Plains. Large hail, severe gusts, and a tornado or two may occur. ...Eastern Colorado/Wyoming and Central Plains... A semi-closed upper low will continue to spread southeastward today over Wyoming and nearby parts of southern Montana and northern Colorado, as a cold front similarly settles southeastward across the Front Range/central High Plains, while a weak surface wave develops northeastward along the front. Increasing forcing for ascent/strengthening flow aloft related to a lead portion of the upper trough will influence steadily increasing and organized thunderstorm development into the afternoon, especially within the immediate post-frontal environment. Buoyancy will be maximized from far northeast Colorado into central Nebraska where low to mid 60s F dewpoints beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will support MLCAPE around 2000-2500 J/kg. The resulting combination of lift, instability, and moderate shear (generally around 35 kt of effective bulk shear) will support strong to severe storms. Large hail appears to be the most prominent hazard (especially western Nebraska), but some clustering could lead to a few strong gusts as well. Presence of the surface low/boundary and backed low-level flow may result in a low-probability tornado risk as well. ...Iowa/northern Missouri/eastern Nebraska... Some stronger/locally severe pulse-type storms may occur late this afternoon through around sunset within the strong instability/weak deep-layer flow regime. ...Northern Minnesota/Lake Superior... Severe-weather potential should be limited across this region, but will retain low-severe probabilities given somewhat stronger deep-layer shear and a low or conditional-type potential near the advancing front. ...Virginia Tidewater/far northeast North Carolina... Surface reflection of a semi-stacked cyclone is just off the far northeast corner of North Carolina at midday. This low should continue to drift north-northwest today and tonight, while likely gradually weakening, although its northern peripheral strong low-level east/northeasterly winds (reference Wakefield WSR-88D VWP) will likely persist through the day. Dry northerly continental trajectories inland will relegate meaningful (albeit limited) buoyancy to the immediate coasts of the Virginia Tidewater/Maryland shore, and otherwise offshore. This will similarly relegate any transient supercell and low-end tornado/wind risk to the immediate coast, but more likely just offshore. ..Guyer/Thornton.. 09/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into early evening across a portion of the central Great Plains. Large hail, severe gusts, and a tornado or two may occur. ...Eastern Colorado/Wyoming and Central Plains... A semi-closed upper low will continue to spread southeastward today over Wyoming and nearby parts of southern Montana and northern Colorado, as a cold front similarly settles southeastward across the Front Range/central High Plains, while a weak surface wave develops northeastward along the front. Increasing forcing for ascent/strengthening flow aloft related to a lead portion of the upper trough will influence steadily increasing and organized thunderstorm development into the afternoon, especially within the immediate post-frontal environment. Buoyancy will be maximized from far northeast Colorado into central Nebraska where low to mid 60s F dewpoints beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will support MLCAPE around 2000-2500 J/kg. The resulting combination of lift, instability, and moderate shear (generally around 35 kt of effective bulk shear) will support strong to severe storms. Large hail appears to be the most prominent hazard (especially western Nebraska), but some clustering could lead to a few strong gusts as well. Presence of the surface low/boundary and backed low-level flow may result in a low-probability tornado risk as well. ...Iowa/northern Missouri/eastern Nebraska... Some stronger/locally severe pulse-type storms may occur late this afternoon through around sunset within the strong instability/weak deep-layer flow regime. ...Northern Minnesota/Lake Superior... Severe-weather potential should be limited across this region, but will retain low-severe probabilities given somewhat stronger deep-layer shear and a low or conditional-type potential near the advancing front. ...Virginia Tidewater/far northeast North Carolina... Surface reflection of a semi-stacked cyclone is just off the far northeast corner of North Carolina at midday. This low should continue to drift north-northwest today and tonight, while likely gradually weakening, although its northern peripheral strong low-level east/northeasterly winds (reference Wakefield WSR-88D VWP) will likely persist through the day. Dry northerly continental trajectories inland will relegate meaningful (albeit limited) buoyancy to the immediate coasts of the Virginia Tidewater/Maryland shore, and otherwise offshore. This will similarly relegate any transient supercell and low-end tornado/wind risk to the immediate coast, but more likely just offshore. ..Guyer/Thornton.. 09/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into early evening across a portion of the central Great Plains. Large hail, severe gusts, and a tornado or two may occur. ...Eastern Colorado/Wyoming and Central Plains... A semi-closed upper low will continue to spread southeastward today over Wyoming and nearby parts of southern Montana and northern Colorado, as a cold front similarly settles southeastward across the Front Range/central High Plains, while a weak surface wave develops northeastward along the front. Increasing forcing for ascent/strengthening flow aloft related to a lead portion of the upper trough will influence steadily increasing and organized thunderstorm development into the afternoon, especially within the immediate post-frontal environment. Buoyancy will be maximized from far northeast Colorado into central Nebraska where low to mid 60s F dewpoints beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will support MLCAPE around 2000-2500 J/kg. The resulting combination of lift, instability, and moderate shear (generally around 35 kt of effective bulk shear) will support strong to severe storms. Large hail appears to be the most prominent hazard (especially western Nebraska), but some clustering could lead to a few strong gusts as well. Presence of the surface low/boundary and backed low-level flow may result in a low-probability tornado risk as well. ...Iowa/northern Missouri/eastern Nebraska... Some stronger/locally severe pulse-type storms may occur late this afternoon through around sunset within the strong instability/weak deep-layer flow regime. ...Northern Minnesota/Lake Superior... Severe-weather potential should be limited across this region, but will retain low-severe probabilities given somewhat stronger deep-layer shear and a low or conditional-type potential near the advancing front. ...Virginia Tidewater/far northeast North Carolina... Surface reflection of a semi-stacked cyclone is just off the far northeast corner of North Carolina at midday. This low should continue to drift north-northwest today and tonight, while likely gradually weakening, although its northern peripheral strong low-level east/northeasterly winds (reference Wakefield WSR-88D VWP) will likely persist through the day. Dry northerly continental trajectories inland will relegate meaningful (albeit limited) buoyancy to the immediate coasts of the Virginia Tidewater/Maryland shore, and otherwise offshore. This will similarly relegate any transient supercell and low-end tornado/wind risk to the immediate coast, but more likely just offshore. ..Guyer/Thornton.. 09/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into early evening across a portion of the central Great Plains. Large hail, severe gusts, and a tornado or two may occur. ...Eastern Colorado/Wyoming and Central Plains... A semi-closed upper low will continue to spread southeastward today over Wyoming and nearby parts of southern Montana and northern Colorado, as a cold front similarly settles southeastward across the Front Range/central High Plains, while a weak surface wave develops northeastward along the front. Increasing forcing for ascent/strengthening flow aloft related to a lead portion of the upper trough will influence steadily increasing and organized thunderstorm development into the afternoon, especially within the immediate post-frontal environment. Buoyancy will be maximized from far northeast Colorado into central Nebraska where low to mid 60s F dewpoints beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will support MLCAPE around 2000-2500 J/kg. The resulting combination of lift, instability, and moderate shear (generally around 35 kt of effective bulk shear) will support strong to severe storms. Large hail appears to be the most prominent hazard (especially western Nebraska), but some clustering could lead to a few strong gusts as well. Presence of the surface low/boundary and backed low-level flow may result in a low-probability tornado risk as well. ...Iowa/northern Missouri/eastern Nebraska... Some stronger/locally severe pulse-type storms may occur late this afternoon through around sunset within the strong instability/weak deep-layer flow regime. ...Northern Minnesota/Lake Superior... Severe-weather potential should be limited across this region, but will retain low-severe probabilities given somewhat stronger deep-layer shear and a low or conditional-type potential near the advancing front. ...Virginia Tidewater/far northeast North Carolina... Surface reflection of a semi-stacked cyclone is just off the far northeast corner of North Carolina at midday. This low should continue to drift north-northwest today and tonight, while likely gradually weakening, although its northern peripheral strong low-level east/northeasterly winds (reference Wakefield WSR-88D VWP) will likely persist through the day. Dry northerly continental trajectories inland will relegate meaningful (albeit limited) buoyancy to the immediate coasts of the Virginia Tidewater/Maryland shore, and otherwise offshore. This will similarly relegate any transient supercell and low-end tornado/wind risk to the immediate coast, but more likely just offshore. ..Guyer/Thornton.. 09/16/2025 Read more

Middlebury was seeing its lowest levels of the year. An apple grower in Middlebury has struggled to grow apples and has no irrigation for the orchard. Neighboring farmers were working together by pooling resources and trying to get through the dry spell by innovating and creating “Cida,” a blend of apple cider and soda. The orchard was open for business and was selling apples provided by nearby orchards. WPTZ NBC5 Burlington (Vt.), Sep 16, 2025

A Hinesburg well ran dry nearly a month and a half ago, leaving a family of four with dirty laundry and infrequent showers. The tap water has an odd aftertaste. Area monitoring wells were at record lows at many sites across the region. In Rutland, the water flow was the lowest since 1928. WPTZ NBC5 Burlington (Vt.), Sep 16, 2025

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 16 Sep 2025 14:57:22 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 16 Sep 2025 15:21:34 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 16 Sep 2025 14:57:22 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 16 Sep 2025 15:21:32 GMT

Farmers in Stark and Carroll counties were calling this dry spell the worst drought they have seen. Spring was rainy, and then the rain stopped. A farmer who was the former president of the Stark County Farm Bureau attested that drought was significantly affecting grassland, so that cattle were being fed hay already. Normally the cattle remained on pasture through November. Area corn did not receive rain when it was needed most. A farmer near Massillon who raises hogs, cattle and chicken and grows vegetables reported that crops have dried up despite watering so the season was at an end. He anticipated having to begin feeding hay soon because the pasture was struggling as there was just no moisture in the ground for growing grass. It did not regrow after the cows ate it. Early feeding means a greater demand for hay, which will contribute to rising hay prices and the expense of feeding hay longer this winter. Some Carroll County farmers have little to no yield this year, according to the organizational director at the Carroll County Farm Bureau. Several farmers were trucking water to their livestock. Canton Rep (Ohio), Sep 16, 2025

Columbus Water and Power began releasing water from the Doutt Upground Reservoir to bolster the O’Shaugnessy Reservoir. WCMH-TV NBC 4 Columbus (Ohio), Sep 15, 2025

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 16 Sep 2025 14:57:22 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 16 Sep 2025 14:57:22 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 16 Sep 2025 14:57:22 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 16 Sep 2025 14:57:22 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 16 Sep 2025 14:52:04 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 16 Sep 2025 14:52:04 GMT

Issued at 800 AM PDT Tue Sep 16 2025 773 WTPZ43 KNHC 161450 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132025 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 800 AM PDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Convection associated with Mario continues to diminish this morning as the system moves into cooler waters and encounters increasing southwesterly shear. Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are decreasing, and thus the initial intensity was lowered to 40 kt this advisory. The initial location of Mario remains a bit uncertain, although a recent microwave pass from shortly after 09Z indicated the system is likely farther southwest than anticipated. As Mario continues to weaken and lose vertical structure, the expectation is that the shallow low-level circulation will slow down and feel less of an impact from the deep-layer southerly flow. This should result in an increasingly sheared system, with the low-level circulation staying farther west and the mid-level remnants going northward. Given this, the latest track forecast is slightly west of the previous forecast, generally remaining on the western side of the track guidance. Mario will continue to weaken as it moves over cooler waters and increasing shear. As the low-level and mid-level circulation decouple, the system will lose its organized convection and should become a post-tropical remnant low as soon as tonight. Thereafter, the low should dissipate into a trough by 48-60 h. While Mario is forecast to dissipate as a tropical cyclone well to the south of California, its remnant moisture will spread farther north, affecting portions of the southwestern United States by mid to late week. Locally heavy rainfall and some instances of flash flooding will be possible by Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 22.7N 117.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 17/0000Z 23.7N 118.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 17/1200Z 24.9N 119.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 18/0000Z 25.8N 120.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 18/1200Z 26.0N 120.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Chenard/Blake

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 16 2025 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 161449 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132025 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1500 UTC TUE SEP 16 2025 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 25N 120W 34 X 8( 8) 3(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) $$ FORECASTER CHENARD/BLAKE

Issued at 800 AM PDT Tue Sep 16 2025 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 161448 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Mario Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132025 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 800 AM PDT Tue Sep 16 2025 ...MOISTURE FROM MARIO COULD AFFECT THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES BY THURSDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.7N 117.2W ABOUT 465 MI...750 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Mario was located near latitude 22.7 North, longitude 117.2 West. Mario is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue with a decrease in forward speed over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Mario will continue to weaken and is expected to become a post-tropical remnant low within the next day. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Chenard/Blake

...MOISTURE FROM MARIO COULD AFFECT THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES BY THURSDAY... As of 8:00 AM PDT Tue Sep 16 the center of Mario was located near 22.7, -117.2 with movement NW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.