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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday over southeast Colorado and northeast New Mexico during the late afternoon and evening. ...High Plains in lee of the Sangre de Cristos... A mid- to upper-level low/trough centered over the north-central Rockies and adjacent plains, will feature a few embedded mid-level vorticity maxima rotating through the larger-scale trough. The primary disturbance of interest will slowly migrate eastward from northeast CO into central NE during the period. A belt of moderate mid- to high-level westerly flow (i.e., 20-30 kt at 500 mb) will move through the base of the trough across southern CO. In the low levels, a front will become draped from the mid MO Valley south-southwest into the KS-CO-OK-TX-NM border region. Southeasterly moist post-frontal upslope flow will aid in a moist airmass over southeast CO on Wednesday. Steep 700-500 mb lapse rates around 7.5 to 8 deg C/km coupled with diurnal heating on the east-facing slopes, will result in moderate buoyancy by mid afternoon near the I-25 corridor over far northeast NM into southeast CO. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms developing initially over the higher terrain will move east into the high plains/escarpment and gradually mature/strengthen. Forecast soundings show 30-45 kt effective shear and elongated hodographs due to 75-kt 200-mb westerly flow. The magnitude of shear and appreciable buoyancy will probably favor an isolated risk for large hail and severe gusts with the stronger storms during the late afternoon/early evening. ...Northern OK into MN/WI... A seasonally moist airmass will be in place to the east of a surface boundary extending from eastern SD into central/southwest KS by late afternoon. Rounds of showers and thunderstorms are possible, and may be ongoing across parts of the region Wednesday morning. This activity and associated cloud cover cast doubt on where stronger destabilization will occur through peak heating. Furthermore, vertical shear is expected to remain weak, and lapse rates will be poor, especially with northward extent. A strong storm or two will be possible where stronger destabilization occurs, but overall severe potential is expected to remain limited. ..Smith.. 09/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday over southeast Colorado and northeast New Mexico during the late afternoon and evening. ...High Plains in lee of the Sangre de Cristos... A mid- to upper-level low/trough centered over the north-central Rockies and adjacent plains, will feature a few embedded mid-level vorticity maxima rotating through the larger-scale trough. The primary disturbance of interest will slowly migrate eastward from northeast CO into central NE during the period. A belt of moderate mid- to high-level westerly flow (i.e., 20-30 kt at 500 mb) will move through the base of the trough across southern CO. In the low levels, a front will become draped from the mid MO Valley south-southwest into the KS-CO-OK-TX-NM border region. Southeasterly moist post-frontal upslope flow will aid in a moist airmass over southeast CO on Wednesday. Steep 700-500 mb lapse rates around 7.5 to 8 deg C/km coupled with diurnal heating on the east-facing slopes, will result in moderate buoyancy by mid afternoon near the I-25 corridor over far northeast NM into southeast CO. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms developing initially over the higher terrain will move east into the high plains/escarpment and gradually mature/strengthen. Forecast soundings show 30-45 kt effective shear and elongated hodographs due to 75-kt 200-mb westerly flow. The magnitude of shear and appreciable buoyancy will probably favor an isolated risk for large hail and severe gusts with the stronger storms during the late afternoon/early evening. ...Northern OK into MN/WI... A seasonally moist airmass will be in place to the east of a surface boundary extending from eastern SD into central/southwest KS by late afternoon. Rounds of showers and thunderstorms are possible, and may be ongoing across parts of the region Wednesday morning. This activity and associated cloud cover cast doubt on where stronger destabilization will occur through peak heating. Furthermore, vertical shear is expected to remain weak, and lapse rates will be poor, especially with northward extent. A strong storm or two will be possible where stronger destabilization occurs, but overall severe potential is expected to remain limited. ..Smith.. 09/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday over southeast Colorado and northeast New Mexico during the late afternoon and evening. ...High Plains in lee of the Sangre de Cristos... A mid- to upper-level low/trough centered over the north-central Rockies and adjacent plains, will feature a few embedded mid-level vorticity maxima rotating through the larger-scale trough. The primary disturbance of interest will slowly migrate eastward from northeast CO into central NE during the period. A belt of moderate mid- to high-level westerly flow (i.e., 20-30 kt at 500 mb) will move through the base of the trough across southern CO. In the low levels, a front will become draped from the mid MO Valley south-southwest into the KS-CO-OK-TX-NM border region. Southeasterly moist post-frontal upslope flow will aid in a moist airmass over southeast CO on Wednesday. Steep 700-500 mb lapse rates around 7.5 to 8 deg C/km coupled with diurnal heating on the east-facing slopes, will result in moderate buoyancy by mid afternoon near the I-25 corridor over far northeast NM into southeast CO. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms developing initially over the higher terrain will move east into the high plains/escarpment and gradually mature/strengthen. Forecast soundings show 30-45 kt effective shear and elongated hodographs due to 75-kt 200-mb westerly flow. The magnitude of shear and appreciable buoyancy will probably favor an isolated risk for large hail and severe gusts with the stronger storms during the late afternoon/early evening. ...Northern OK into MN/WI... A seasonally moist airmass will be in place to the east of a surface boundary extending from eastern SD into central/southwest KS by late afternoon. Rounds of showers and thunderstorms are possible, and may be ongoing across parts of the region Wednesday morning. This activity and associated cloud cover cast doubt on where stronger destabilization will occur through peak heating. Furthermore, vertical shear is expected to remain weak, and lapse rates will be poor, especially with northward extent. A strong storm or two will be possible where stronger destabilization occurs, but overall severe potential is expected to remain limited. ..Smith.. 09/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday over southeast Colorado and northeast New Mexico during the late afternoon and evening. ...High Plains in lee of the Sangre de Cristos... A mid- to upper-level low/trough centered over the north-central Rockies and adjacent plains, will feature a few embedded mid-level vorticity maxima rotating through the larger-scale trough. The primary disturbance of interest will slowly migrate eastward from northeast CO into central NE during the period. A belt of moderate mid- to high-level westerly flow (i.e., 20-30 kt at 500 mb) will move through the base of the trough across southern CO. In the low levels, a front will become draped from the mid MO Valley south-southwest into the KS-CO-OK-TX-NM border region. Southeasterly moist post-frontal upslope flow will aid in a moist airmass over southeast CO on Wednesday. Steep 700-500 mb lapse rates around 7.5 to 8 deg C/km coupled with diurnal heating on the east-facing slopes, will result in moderate buoyancy by mid afternoon near the I-25 corridor over far northeast NM into southeast CO. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms developing initially over the higher terrain will move east into the high plains/escarpment and gradually mature/strengthen. Forecast soundings show 30-45 kt effective shear and elongated hodographs due to 75-kt 200-mb westerly flow. The magnitude of shear and appreciable buoyancy will probably favor an isolated risk for large hail and severe gusts with the stronger storms during the late afternoon/early evening. ...Northern OK into MN/WI... A seasonally moist airmass will be in place to the east of a surface boundary extending from eastern SD into central/southwest KS by late afternoon. Rounds of showers and thunderstorms are possible, and may be ongoing across parts of the region Wednesday morning. This activity and associated cloud cover cast doubt on where stronger destabilization will occur through peak heating. Furthermore, vertical shear is expected to remain weak, and lapse rates will be poor, especially with northward extent. A strong storm or two will be possible where stronger destabilization occurs, but overall severe potential is expected to remain limited. ..Smith.. 09/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday over southeast Colorado and northeast New Mexico during the late afternoon and evening. ...High Plains in lee of the Sangre de Cristos... A mid- to upper-level low/trough centered over the north-central Rockies and adjacent plains, will feature a few embedded mid-level vorticity maxima rotating through the larger-scale trough. The primary disturbance of interest will slowly migrate eastward from northeast CO into central NE during the period. A belt of moderate mid- to high-level westerly flow (i.e., 20-30 kt at 500 mb) will move through the base of the trough across southern CO. In the low levels, a front will become draped from the mid MO Valley south-southwest into the KS-CO-OK-TX-NM border region. Southeasterly moist post-frontal upslope flow will aid in a moist airmass over southeast CO on Wednesday. Steep 700-500 mb lapse rates around 7.5 to 8 deg C/km coupled with diurnal heating on the east-facing slopes, will result in moderate buoyancy by mid afternoon near the I-25 corridor over far northeast NM into southeast CO. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms developing initially over the higher terrain will move east into the high plains/escarpment and gradually mature/strengthen. Forecast soundings show 30-45 kt effective shear and elongated hodographs due to 75-kt 200-mb westerly flow. The magnitude of shear and appreciable buoyancy will probably favor an isolated risk for large hail and severe gusts with the stronger storms during the late afternoon/early evening. ...Northern OK into MN/WI... A seasonally moist airmass will be in place to the east of a surface boundary extending from eastern SD into central/southwest KS by late afternoon. Rounds of showers and thunderstorms are possible, and may be ongoing across parts of the region Wednesday morning. This activity and associated cloud cover cast doubt on where stronger destabilization will occur through peak heating. Furthermore, vertical shear is expected to remain weak, and lapse rates will be poor, especially with northward extent. A strong storm or two will be possible where stronger destabilization occurs, but overall severe potential is expected to remain limited. ..Smith.. 09/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday over southeast Colorado and northeast New Mexico during the late afternoon and evening. ...High Plains in lee of the Sangre de Cristos... A mid- to upper-level low/trough centered over the north-central Rockies and adjacent plains, will feature a few embedded mid-level vorticity maxima rotating through the larger-scale trough. The primary disturbance of interest will slowly migrate eastward from northeast CO into central NE during the period. A belt of moderate mid- to high-level westerly flow (i.e., 20-30 kt at 500 mb) will move through the base of the trough across southern CO. In the low levels, a front will become draped from the mid MO Valley south-southwest into the KS-CO-OK-TX-NM border region. Southeasterly moist post-frontal upslope flow will aid in a moist airmass over southeast CO on Wednesday. Steep 700-500 mb lapse rates around 7.5 to 8 deg C/km coupled with diurnal heating on the east-facing slopes, will result in moderate buoyancy by mid afternoon near the I-25 corridor over far northeast NM into southeast CO. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms developing initially over the higher terrain will move east into the high plains/escarpment and gradually mature/strengthen. Forecast soundings show 30-45 kt effective shear and elongated hodographs due to 75-kt 200-mb westerly flow. The magnitude of shear and appreciable buoyancy will probably favor an isolated risk for large hail and severe gusts with the stronger storms during the late afternoon/early evening. ...Northern OK into MN/WI... A seasonally moist airmass will be in place to the east of a surface boundary extending from eastern SD into central/southwest KS by late afternoon. Rounds of showers and thunderstorms are possible, and may be ongoing across parts of the region Wednesday morning. This activity and associated cloud cover cast doubt on where stronger destabilization will occur through peak heating. Furthermore, vertical shear is expected to remain weak, and lapse rates will be poor, especially with northward extent. A strong storm or two will be possible where stronger destabilization occurs, but overall severe potential is expected to remain limited. ..Smith.. 09/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday over southeast Colorado and northeast New Mexico during the late afternoon and evening. ...High Plains in lee of the Sangre de Cristos... A mid- to upper-level low/trough centered over the north-central Rockies and adjacent plains, will feature a few embedded mid-level vorticity maxima rotating through the larger-scale trough. The primary disturbance of interest will slowly migrate eastward from northeast CO into central NE during the period. A belt of moderate mid- to high-level westerly flow (i.e., 20-30 kt at 500 mb) will move through the base of the trough across southern CO. In the low levels, a front will become draped from the mid MO Valley south-southwest into the KS-CO-OK-TX-NM border region. Southeasterly moist post-frontal upslope flow will aid in a moist airmass over southeast CO on Wednesday. Steep 700-500 mb lapse rates around 7.5 to 8 deg C/km coupled with diurnal heating on the east-facing slopes, will result in moderate buoyancy by mid afternoon near the I-25 corridor over far northeast NM into southeast CO. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms developing initially over the higher terrain will move east into the high plains/escarpment and gradually mature/strengthen. Forecast soundings show 30-45 kt effective shear and elongated hodographs due to 75-kt 200-mb westerly flow. The magnitude of shear and appreciable buoyancy will probably favor an isolated risk for large hail and severe gusts with the stronger storms during the late afternoon/early evening. ...Northern OK into MN/WI... A seasonally moist airmass will be in place to the east of a surface boundary extending from eastern SD into central/southwest KS by late afternoon. Rounds of showers and thunderstorms are possible, and may be ongoing across parts of the region Wednesday morning. This activity and associated cloud cover cast doubt on where stronger destabilization will occur through peak heating. Furthermore, vertical shear is expected to remain weak, and lapse rates will be poor, especially with northward extent. A strong storm or two will be possible where stronger destabilization occurs, but overall severe potential is expected to remain limited. ..Smith.. 09/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday over southeast Colorado and northeast New Mexico during the late afternoon and evening. ...High Plains in lee of the Sangre de Cristos... A mid- to upper-level low/trough centered over the north-central Rockies and adjacent plains, will feature a few embedded mid-level vorticity maxima rotating through the larger-scale trough. The primary disturbance of interest will slowly migrate eastward from northeast CO into central NE during the period. A belt of moderate mid- to high-level westerly flow (i.e., 20-30 kt at 500 mb) will move through the base of the trough across southern CO. In the low levels, a front will become draped from the mid MO Valley south-southwest into the KS-CO-OK-TX-NM border region. Southeasterly moist post-frontal upslope flow will aid in a moist airmass over southeast CO on Wednesday. Steep 700-500 mb lapse rates around 7.5 to 8 deg C/km coupled with diurnal heating on the east-facing slopes, will result in moderate buoyancy by mid afternoon near the I-25 corridor over far northeast NM into southeast CO. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms developing initially over the higher terrain will move east into the high plains/escarpment and gradually mature/strengthen. Forecast soundings show 30-45 kt effective shear and elongated hodographs due to 75-kt 200-mb westerly flow. The magnitude of shear and appreciable buoyancy will probably favor an isolated risk for large hail and severe gusts with the stronger storms during the late afternoon/early evening. ...Northern OK into MN/WI... A seasonally moist airmass will be in place to the east of a surface boundary extending from eastern SD into central/southwest KS by late afternoon. Rounds of showers and thunderstorms are possible, and may be ongoing across parts of the region Wednesday morning. This activity and associated cloud cover cast doubt on where stronger destabilization will occur through peak heating. Furthermore, vertical shear is expected to remain weak, and lapse rates will be poor, especially with northward extent. A strong storm or two will be possible where stronger destabilization occurs, but overall severe potential is expected to remain limited. ..Smith.. 09/16/2025 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 161720
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Sep 16 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Mario, located a few hundred miles west of the southern tip of
the Baja California Peninsula.

Off the Coast of Southwestern Mexico (EP96):
An area of low pressure located several hundred miles off the coast
of southern Mexico continues to produce a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for additional development of this system, and a tropical
depression is likely to form during the next couple of days as it
moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the central east
Pacific.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...17z Update... No changes. Brief localized fire-weather conditions remain possible across the western Columbia Basin as well as parts of the southern UT and the Four Corners where rain has not recently fallen. However, widespread concerns are not expected, see the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 09/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the Pacific Northwest Coastline as another upper trough farther to the east begins to overspread the northern Plains today. Surface high pressure will become established over the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies, promoting quiescent fire weather conditions. Offshore flow is expected across the Pacific Northwest, especially along the windward side of the Cascades. While locally dry and breezy conditions may occur, the sparse nature of such conditions over modestly receptive fuels precludes fire weather highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...17z Update... No changes. Brief localized fire-weather conditions remain possible across the western Columbia Basin as well as parts of the southern UT and the Four Corners where rain has not recently fallen. However, widespread concerns are not expected, see the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 09/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the Pacific Northwest Coastline as another upper trough farther to the east begins to overspread the northern Plains today. Surface high pressure will become established over the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies, promoting quiescent fire weather conditions. Offshore flow is expected across the Pacific Northwest, especially along the windward side of the Cascades. While locally dry and breezy conditions may occur, the sparse nature of such conditions over modestly receptive fuels precludes fire weather highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...17z Update... No changes. Brief localized fire-weather conditions remain possible across the western Columbia Basin as well as parts of the southern UT and the Four Corners where rain has not recently fallen. However, widespread concerns are not expected, see the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 09/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the Pacific Northwest Coastline as another upper trough farther to the east begins to overspread the northern Plains today. Surface high pressure will become established over the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies, promoting quiescent fire weather conditions. Offshore flow is expected across the Pacific Northwest, especially along the windward side of the Cascades. While locally dry and breezy conditions may occur, the sparse nature of such conditions over modestly receptive fuels precludes fire weather highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...17z Update... No changes. Brief localized fire-weather conditions remain possible across the western Columbia Basin as well as parts of the southern UT and the Four Corners where rain has not recently fallen. However, widespread concerns are not expected, see the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 09/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the Pacific Northwest Coastline as another upper trough farther to the east begins to overspread the northern Plains today. Surface high pressure will become established over the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies, promoting quiescent fire weather conditions. Offshore flow is expected across the Pacific Northwest, especially along the windward side of the Cascades. While locally dry and breezy conditions may occur, the sparse nature of such conditions over modestly receptive fuels precludes fire weather highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...17z Update... No changes. Brief localized fire-weather conditions remain possible across the western Columbia Basin as well as parts of the southern UT and the Four Corners where rain has not recently fallen. However, widespread concerns are not expected, see the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 09/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the Pacific Northwest Coastline as another upper trough farther to the east begins to overspread the northern Plains today. Surface high pressure will become established over the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies, promoting quiescent fire weather conditions. Offshore flow is expected across the Pacific Northwest, especially along the windward side of the Cascades. While locally dry and breezy conditions may occur, the sparse nature of such conditions over modestly receptive fuels precludes fire weather highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...17z Update... No changes. Brief localized fire-weather conditions remain possible across the western Columbia Basin as well as parts of the southern UT and the Four Corners where rain has not recently fallen. However, widespread concerns are not expected, see the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 09/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the Pacific Northwest Coastline as another upper trough farther to the east begins to overspread the northern Plains today. Surface high pressure will become established over the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies, promoting quiescent fire weather conditions. Offshore flow is expected across the Pacific Northwest, especially along the windward side of the Cascades. While locally dry and breezy conditions may occur, the sparse nature of such conditions over modestly receptive fuels precludes fire weather highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...17z Update... No changes. Brief localized fire-weather conditions remain possible across the western Columbia Basin as well as parts of the southern UT and the Four Corners where rain has not recently fallen. However, widespread concerns are not expected, see the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 09/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the Pacific Northwest Coastline as another upper trough farther to the east begins to overspread the northern Plains today. Surface high pressure will become established over the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies, promoting quiescent fire weather conditions. Offshore flow is expected across the Pacific Northwest, especially along the windward side of the Cascades. While locally dry and breezy conditions may occur, the sparse nature of such conditions over modestly receptive fuels precludes fire weather highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...17z Update... No changes. Brief localized fire-weather conditions remain possible across the western Columbia Basin as well as parts of the southern UT and the Four Corners where rain has not recently fallen. However, widespread concerns are not expected, see the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 09/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the Pacific Northwest Coastline as another upper trough farther to the east begins to overspread the northern Plains today. Surface high pressure will become established over the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies, promoting quiescent fire weather conditions. Offshore flow is expected across the Pacific Northwest, especially along the windward side of the Cascades. While locally dry and breezy conditions may occur, the sparse nature of such conditions over modestly receptive fuels precludes fire weather highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...17z Update... No changes. Brief localized fire-weather conditions remain possible across the western Columbia Basin as well as parts of the southern UT and the Four Corners where rain has not recently fallen. However, widespread concerns are not expected, see the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 09/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the Pacific Northwest Coastline as another upper trough farther to the east begins to overspread the northern Plains today. Surface high pressure will become established over the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies, promoting quiescent fire weather conditions. Offshore flow is expected across the Pacific Northwest, especially along the windward side of the Cascades. While locally dry and breezy conditions may occur, the sparse nature of such conditions over modestly receptive fuels precludes fire weather highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into early evening across a portion of the central Great Plains. Large hail, severe gusts, and a tornado or two may occur. ...Eastern Colorado/Wyoming and Central Plains... A semi-closed upper low will continue to spread southeastward today over Wyoming and nearby parts of southern Montana and northern Colorado, as a cold front similarly settles southeastward across the Front Range/central High Plains, while a weak surface wave develops northeastward along the front. Increasing forcing for ascent/strengthening flow aloft related to a lead portion of the upper trough will influence steadily increasing and organized thunderstorm development into the afternoon, especially within the immediate post-frontal environment. Buoyancy will be maximized from far northeast Colorado into central Nebraska where low to mid 60s F dewpoints beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will support MLCAPE around 2000-2500 J/kg. The resulting combination of lift, instability, and moderate shear (generally around 35 kt of effective bulk shear) will support strong to severe storms. Large hail appears to be the most prominent hazard (especially western Nebraska), but some clustering could lead to a few strong gusts as well. Presence of the surface low/boundary and backed low-level flow may result in a low-probability tornado risk as well. ...Iowa/northern Missouri/eastern Nebraska... Some stronger/locally severe pulse-type storms may occur late this afternoon through around sunset within the strong instability/weak deep-layer flow regime. ...Northern Minnesota/Lake Superior... Severe-weather potential should be limited across this region, but will retain low-severe probabilities given somewhat stronger deep-layer shear and a low or conditional-type potential near the advancing front. ...Virginia Tidewater/far northeast North Carolina... Surface reflection of a semi-stacked cyclone is just off the far northeast corner of North Carolina at midday. This low should continue to drift north-northwest today and tonight, while likely gradually weakening, although its northern peripheral strong low-level east/northeasterly winds (reference Wakefield WSR-88D VWP) will likely persist through the day. Dry northerly continental trajectories inland will relegate meaningful (albeit limited) buoyancy to the immediate coasts of the Virginia Tidewater/Maryland shore, and otherwise offshore. This will similarly relegate any transient supercell and low-end tornado/wind risk to the immediate coast, but more likely just offshore. ..Guyer/Thornton.. 09/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into early evening across a portion of the central Great Plains. Large hail, severe gusts, and a tornado or two may occur. ...Eastern Colorado/Wyoming and Central Plains... A semi-closed upper low will continue to spread southeastward today over Wyoming and nearby parts of southern Montana and northern Colorado, as a cold front similarly settles southeastward across the Front Range/central High Plains, while a weak surface wave develops northeastward along the front. Increasing forcing for ascent/strengthening flow aloft related to a lead portion of the upper trough will influence steadily increasing and organized thunderstorm development into the afternoon, especially within the immediate post-frontal environment. Buoyancy will be maximized from far northeast Colorado into central Nebraska where low to mid 60s F dewpoints beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will support MLCAPE around 2000-2500 J/kg. The resulting combination of lift, instability, and moderate shear (generally around 35 kt of effective bulk shear) will support strong to severe storms. Large hail appears to be the most prominent hazard (especially western Nebraska), but some clustering could lead to a few strong gusts as well. Presence of the surface low/boundary and backed low-level flow may result in a low-probability tornado risk as well. ...Iowa/northern Missouri/eastern Nebraska... Some stronger/locally severe pulse-type storms may occur late this afternoon through around sunset within the strong instability/weak deep-layer flow regime. ...Northern Minnesota/Lake Superior... Severe-weather potential should be limited across this region, but will retain low-severe probabilities given somewhat stronger deep-layer shear and a low or conditional-type potential near the advancing front. ...Virginia Tidewater/far northeast North Carolina... Surface reflection of a semi-stacked cyclone is just off the far northeast corner of North Carolina at midday. This low should continue to drift north-northwest today and tonight, while likely gradually weakening, although its northern peripheral strong low-level east/northeasterly winds (reference Wakefield WSR-88D VWP) will likely persist through the day. Dry northerly continental trajectories inland will relegate meaningful (albeit limited) buoyancy to the immediate coasts of the Virginia Tidewater/Maryland shore, and otherwise offshore. This will similarly relegate any transient supercell and low-end tornado/wind risk to the immediate coast, but more likely just offshore. ..Guyer/Thornton.. 09/16/2025 Read more