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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z Shortwave ridging will rapidly build over the western US through midweek while aloft, an upper low will gradually strengthen over the East. There after, the upper-level flow pattern will gradually transition to stronger semi-zonal flow. Warm and dry conditions are likely initially, potentially followed by stronger winds and an increase in thunderstorm potential over the West through this weekend and into early next week. ...Northwest... High pressure will briefly build over the Northwest behind the upper low over the central US through the remainder of this week. This should support a significant warming trend and some fuel drying in response. Gusty west winds are also possible as a lee/thermal trough develops D3/Thursday. Later into the weekend, strong zonal flow will return, potentially supporting dry downslope conditions over the western Columbia Basin. This seem especially likely D5/Saturday and through the remainder of the weekend. With fuels expected to dry, some increase in fire-weather threat is possible into early next week as zonal flow continues. ...Eastern US... Warm and dry conditions are expected over much of the eastern/southeastern US through the extended forecast period. However, winds are expected to remain modest with high pressure in place. Area fuels will continue to dry with ongoing drought. Some potential for gusty northwest winds may develop D4/Friday through the weekend behind a cold front over the Northeast as the upper low moves offshore. The gusty offshore winds and dry conditions could potentially support localized fire-weather conditions through the weekend and into early next week. ...Thunderstorms... A sub-tropical air mass associated with the remnants of TS Mario over the eastern Pacific will overspread much of the West beginning the middle of this week. Accompanying the increase in moisture, strong southwesterly flow should also overspread the West Coast. This should favor scattered, primarily wet thunderstorms into the weekend across southern and central CA. Wetting rainfall potential appears high with PWATS near or exceeding 1 inch at times, which should temper area fuels. Farther north across northern CA and southern OR into the northern Great Basin, drier conditions at the fringes of the moisture surge could favor higher cloud bases and a greater risk for dry lightning through the weekend. The previous warming and drying episode could also allow fuels to be more receptive. However, model guidance continues to vary substantially on the thunderstorm threat and no probabilities will be assessed until a greater agreement in guidance is reached. ..Lyons.. 09/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

Wells were running dry in New Hampshire where almost half of the state depends on private wells for water. Conditions were worst in the north of the state. State officials were warning the public to begin conserving water by foregoing the lawn watering, car washing and lengthy showers before more wells run dry. A well and pump business in Epping was receiving many more calls than usual from homeowners whose wells had run dry. WMUR-TV ABC 9 Manchester (N.H.), Sep 16, 2025

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Sep 16 21:30:20 UTC 2025.

The PGA Tour announced that it will not hold The Sentry at the Plantation Course at Kapalua due to the parched state of the course. “Following discussions with the Governor’s office, as well as leadership from Sentry Insurance, Kapalua Resort and Maui County, the PGA Tour has determined the 2026 playing of The Sentry will not be contested at The Plantation Course at Kapalua due to ongoing drought conditions, water conservation requirements, agronomic conditions and logistical challenges,” the PGA Tour said in an emailed statement. Maui Now (Kahului, Hawaii), Sep 16, 2025

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 16 Sep 2025 20:33:07 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 16 Sep 2025 21:21:18 GMT

MD 2085 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR WEST-CENTRAL NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EXTREME NORTHEAST COLORADO
Mesoscale Discussion 2085 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Areas affected...west-central Nebraska...northwest Kansas and extreme northeast Colorado Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 161926Z - 162130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Severe storms producing damaging winds and localized hail appear likely late this afternoon and evening. DISCUSSION...Strong heating near the surface trough and beneath cool midlevel temperatures has led to a very unstable air mass for this time of year over western NE, though overall shear profiles are weak. Ongoing storms over northwest NE are likely to extend southward over the next few hours. Hail may occur with initial development but the primary risk should be severe winds. Locally stronger shear does exist in the vicinity of far northeast CO where surface winds are backed near the boundary and on the nose of the low-level theta-e plume. A supercell or two may occur in this region prior to larger-scale mergers/wind threat. ..Jewell/Guyer.. 09/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU... LAT...LON 40180031 39840075 39720142 39680212 39920270 40110281 40290280 41300205 41870189 42340191 42560175 42600145 42740096 42480028 41809982 40949996 40180031 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 16 Sep 2025 20:33:07 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 16 Sep 2025 20:33:07 GMT

Issued at 200 PM PDT Tue Sep 16 2025 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 162032 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Mario Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132025 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 200 PM PDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Deep convection around Mario has dissipated with an exposed center visible on satellite imagery. A recent scatterometer pass indicates Mario has weakened to a depression, and thus the initial intensity was lowered to 30 kt. Visible satellite imagery has allowed for a more precise initial position of Mario for this advisory, with the location continuing the trend of being a bit farther southwest than anticipated. As Mario continues to weaken and lose vertical structure, the expectation is that the shallow low-level circulation will slow down and feel less of an impact from the deep-layer southerly flow. This should result in the low-level circulation staying farther west and the mid-level remnants going northward. An initial westward adjustment was made to the track to account for the farther southwest initial position, otherwise minimal changes were made to the previous track. Mario will continue to weaken as it moves over cooler waters and increasing shear. Given the lack of convection, the expectation is that Mario will become a post-tropical remnant low tonight. Thereafter, the low should dissipate into a trough by 36-48 h. While Mario is forecast to dissipate as a tropical cyclone well to the south of California, its remnant moisture will spread farther north, affecting portions of the southwestern United States by mid to late week. Locally heavy rainfall and some instances of flash flooding will be possible by Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/2100Z 23.0N 117.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 17/0600Z 23.9N 118.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 17/1800Z 25.0N 119.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 18/0600Z 25.5N 120.3W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Chenard/Blake

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 16 2025 875 FOPZ13 KNHC 162031 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132025 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 2100 UTC TUE SEP 16 2025 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 25N 120W 34 X 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER CHENARD/BLAKE

Issued at 200 PM PDT Tue Sep 16 2025 890 WTPZ33 KNHC 162031 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Mario Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132025 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 200 PM PDT Tue Sep 16 2025 ...MOISTURE FROM MARIO COULD AFFECT THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES BY THURSDAY... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.0N 117.7W ABOUT 495 MI...800 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Mario was located near latitude 23.0 North, longitude 117.7 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue with a decrease in forward speed over the next day. Satellite-derived winds indicate maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Mario will continue to weaken and is expected to become a post-tropical remnant low tonight. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Chenard/Blake

...MOISTURE FROM MARIO COULD AFFECT THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES BY THURSDAY... As of 2:00 PM PDT Tue Sep 16 the center of Mario was located near 23.0, -117.7 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 16 2025 831 WTPZ23 KNHC 162031 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132025 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 2100 UTC TUE SEP 16 2025 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 117.7W AT 16/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 4 M SEAS.... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 117.7W AT 16/2100Z AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 117.4W FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 23.9N 118.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 25.0N 119.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 25.5N 120.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.0N 117.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z $$ FORECASTER CHENARD/BLAKE

MD 2084 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN NEBRASKA...SOUTHWESTERN IOWA...AND NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 2084 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Areas affected...eastern Nebraska...southwestern Iowa...and northwestern Missouri Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 161921Z - 162115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm activity to increase through the afternoon with risk for a few instances of strong to severe wind. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity is increasing across portions of central Iowa. Strong daytime heating amid mid 60s dew points has aided in MLCAPE around 1500-3000 J/kg. Though temperatures are hot (warming into the mid 80s to 90s F) with moderate instability, deep layer flow remains weak. A few stronger cores may produce some instances of strong to severe wind, however, weaker shear will keep the severe risk limited and localized. Thunderstorm activity should diminish this evening with the loss of daytime heating. ..Thornton/Guyer.. 09/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...GID... LAT...LON 39989570 40329692 40869736 41699753 42709710 43249630 43169532 42819367 42159273 40039225 39149316 39089434 39989570 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

WW 0612 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0612 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0612 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0612 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0612 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0612 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0612 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0612 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 612 SEVERE TSTM CO KS NE 162005Z - 170300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 612 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 305 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northeast Colorado Northwest Kansas Western and Central Nebraska * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 305 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms will continue to develop this afternoon, initially and particularly across west-central/southwest Nebraska and northwest Kansas. Additional and potentially a secondary round of development will occur later this afternoon as stronger upper-level support arrives from the post and the post-frontal low-level upslope environment evolves. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles east and west of a line from 10 miles northwest of Valentine NE to 65 miles south of Imperial NE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 22025. ...Guyer Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into early evening across a portion of the central Great Plains. Large hail, severe gusts, and a tornado or two may occur. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed to reflect recent convective trends. Latest GOES imagery shows a steady uptick in convection across the central High Plains/Plains as lingering inhibition is removed via daytime heating. Elevated convection across western NE has also shown signs of intensification, which should continue as the cluster spreads east/southeast into an unstable air mass developing across central NE (see MCD #2085 for additional details). Additional thunderstorm clustering is likely through the evening hours as convective coverage increases across southwest NE/northwest KS and northeast CO. Elsewhere, the previous forecast remains on track. Consideration was given for removing risk probabilities across northeast MN, but temperatures are currently several degrees warmer than anticipated by recent guidance. With shallow cumulus developing upstream along an advancing front, a conditional severe threat may persist into early evening. See MCD #2084 and the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 09/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1138 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025/ ...Eastern Colorado/Wyoming and Central Plains... A semi-closed upper low will continue to spread southeastward today over Wyoming and nearby parts of southern Montana and northern Colorado, as a cold front similarly settles southeastward across the Front Range/central High Plains, while a weak surface wave develops northeastward along the front. Increasing forcing for ascent/strengthening flow aloft related to a lead portion of the upper trough will influence steadily increasing and organized thunderstorm development into the afternoon, especially within the immediate post-frontal environment. Buoyancy will be maximized from far northeast Colorado into central Nebraska where low to mid 60s F dewpoints beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will support MLCAPE around 2000-2500 J/kg. The resulting combination of lift, instability, and moderate shear (generally around 35 kt of effective bulk shear) will support strong to severe storms. Large hail appears to be the most prominent hazard (especially western Nebraska), but some clustering could lead to a few strong gusts as well. Presence of the surface low/boundary and backed low-level flow may result in a low-probability tornado risk as well. ...Iowa/northern Missouri/eastern Nebraska... Some stronger/locally severe pulse-type storms may occur late this afternoon through around sunset within the strong instability/weak deep-layer flow regime. ...Northern Minnesota/Lake Superior... Severe-weather potential should be limited across this region, but will retain low-severe probabilities given somewhat stronger deep-layer shear and a low or conditional-type potential near the advancing front. ...Virginia Tidewater/far northeast North Carolina... Surface reflection of a semi-stacked cyclone is just off the far northeast corner of North Carolina at midday. This low should continue to drift north-northwest today and tonight, while likely gradually weakening, although its northern peripheral strong low-level east/northeasterly winds (reference Wakefield WSR-88D VWP) will likely persist through the day. Dry northerly continental trajectories inland will relegate meaningful (albeit limited) buoyancy to the immediate coasts of the Virginia Tidewater/Maryland shore, and otherwise offshore. This will similarly relegate any transient supercell and low-end tornado/wind risk to the immediate coast, but more likely just offshore. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into early evening across a portion of the central Great Plains. Large hail, severe gusts, and a tornado or two may occur. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed to reflect recent convective trends. Latest GOES imagery shows a steady uptick in convection across the central High Plains/Plains as lingering inhibition is removed via daytime heating. Elevated convection across western NE has also shown signs of intensification, which should continue as the cluster spreads east/southeast into an unstable air mass developing across central NE (see MCD #2085 for additional details). Additional thunderstorm clustering is likely through the evening hours as convective coverage increases across southwest NE/northwest KS and northeast CO. Elsewhere, the previous forecast remains on track. Consideration was given for removing risk probabilities across northeast MN, but temperatures are currently several degrees warmer than anticipated by recent guidance. With shallow cumulus developing upstream along an advancing front, a conditional severe threat may persist into early evening. See MCD #2084 and the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 09/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1138 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025/ ...Eastern Colorado/Wyoming and Central Plains... A semi-closed upper low will continue to spread southeastward today over Wyoming and nearby parts of southern Montana and northern Colorado, as a cold front similarly settles southeastward across the Front Range/central High Plains, while a weak surface wave develops northeastward along the front. Increasing forcing for ascent/strengthening flow aloft related to a lead portion of the upper trough will influence steadily increasing and organized thunderstorm development into the afternoon, especially within the immediate post-frontal environment. Buoyancy will be maximized from far northeast Colorado into central Nebraska where low to mid 60s F dewpoints beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will support MLCAPE around 2000-2500 J/kg. The resulting combination of lift, instability, and moderate shear (generally around 35 kt of effective bulk shear) will support strong to severe storms. Large hail appears to be the most prominent hazard (especially western Nebraska), but some clustering could lead to a few strong gusts as well. Presence of the surface low/boundary and backed low-level flow may result in a low-probability tornado risk as well. ...Iowa/northern Missouri/eastern Nebraska... Some stronger/locally severe pulse-type storms may occur late this afternoon through around sunset within the strong instability/weak deep-layer flow regime. ...Northern Minnesota/Lake Superior... Severe-weather potential should be limited across this region, but will retain low-severe probabilities given somewhat stronger deep-layer shear and a low or conditional-type potential near the advancing front. ...Virginia Tidewater/far northeast North Carolina... Surface reflection of a semi-stacked cyclone is just off the far northeast corner of North Carolina at midday. This low should continue to drift north-northwest today and tonight, while likely gradually weakening, although its northern peripheral strong low-level east/northeasterly winds (reference Wakefield WSR-88D VWP) will likely persist through the day. Dry northerly continental trajectories inland will relegate meaningful (albeit limited) buoyancy to the immediate coasts of the Virginia Tidewater/Maryland shore, and otherwise offshore. This will similarly relegate any transient supercell and low-end tornado/wind risk to the immediate coast, but more likely just offshore. Read more