Aggregator

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWEST KS AND SOUTHWEST NE... ...SUMMARY... A diminishing severe threat is expected over the central Great Plains tonight. ...CO/KS/NE... Primary severe potential will remain over the next 1-2 hours with several semi-discrete updrafts across northeast CO, southwest NE, and northwest KS. Strong low-level convergence in the tri-state border area will foster amalgamation of these updrafts into a broader cluster. This will hamper sustained hail growth and support a diminishing severe threat. With only moderate mid-level west-southwesterlies sampled in upstream VWPs along the Front Range and nocturnally increasing MLCIN across the warm sector, later evening clusters should struggle to greatly organize and severe wind potential should remain isolated/sporadic. ..Grams.. 09/17/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWEST KS AND SOUTHWEST NE... ...SUMMARY... A diminishing severe threat is expected over the central Great Plains tonight. ...CO/KS/NE... Primary severe potential will remain over the next 1-2 hours with several semi-discrete updrafts across northeast CO, southwest NE, and northwest KS. Strong low-level convergence in the tri-state border area will foster amalgamation of these updrafts into a broader cluster. This will hamper sustained hail growth and support a diminishing severe threat. With only moderate mid-level west-southwesterlies sampled in upstream VWPs along the Front Range and nocturnally increasing MLCIN across the warm sector, later evening clusters should struggle to greatly organize and severe wind potential should remain isolated/sporadic. ..Grams.. 09/17/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWEST KS AND SOUTHWEST NE... ...SUMMARY... A diminishing severe threat is expected over the central Great Plains tonight. ...CO/KS/NE... Primary severe potential will remain over the next 1-2 hours with several semi-discrete updrafts across northeast CO, southwest NE, and northwest KS. Strong low-level convergence in the tri-state border area will foster amalgamation of these updrafts into a broader cluster. This will hamper sustained hail growth and support a diminishing severe threat. With only moderate mid-level west-southwesterlies sampled in upstream VWPs along the Front Range and nocturnally increasing MLCIN across the warm sector, later evening clusters should struggle to greatly organize and severe wind potential should remain isolated/sporadic. ..Grams.. 09/17/2025 Read more

WW 0612 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 612 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE AKO TO 25 ENE IML TO 25 NNE VTN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2089 ..SQUITIERI..09/17/25 ATTN...WFO...BOU...GLD...LBF...CYS...GID... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 612 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC121-125-170140- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE WASHINGTON YUMA KSC023-039-065-137-147-153-163-179-193-170140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE DECATUR GRAHAM NORTON PHILLIPS RAWLINS ROOKS SHERIDAN THOMAS NEC009-017-019-029-041-047-057-061-063-065-073-077-079-083-085- 087-093-099-103-111-113-115-137-145-149-163-171-175-170140- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

MD 2087 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 2087 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0524 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Areas affected...Arrowhead of Minnesota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 162224Z - 170030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A few strong-severe thunderstorms are developing over the Arrowhead region of Minnesota. Some risk for hail/wind can be expected with these storms. DISCUSSION...Southern extent of SK/ON short-wave trough is influencing the international border region, especially the Arrowhead of MN. Strong boundary-layer heating has contributed to substantial buoyancy across this region, and inhibition is currently negligible where temperatures have warmed into the mid 80s. Latest visible imagery supports this with a considerable amount of congestus and towering cu over St. Louis County. Over the last few minutes, a weak shower, with lightning, has developed near Ely and this updraft is likely rooted within a confluent boundary layer characterized by 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Forecast soundings favor some risk for hail/wind as thunderstorms intensify ahead of the short wave. This activity will spread across the Arrowhead into northwest ON, but current thinking is the area is too limited to issue a severe thunderstorm watch. ..Darrow/Gleason.. 09/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DLH... LAT...LON 47409303 48369129 47948953 46749205 47409303 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

MD 2088 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 612... FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST COLORADO...FAR NORTHWESTERN KANSAS...MUCH OF WESTERN NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 2088 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0531 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Areas affected...Portions of northeast Colorado...far northwestern Kansas...much of western Nebraska Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 612... Valid 162231Z - 170000Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 612 continues. SUMMARY...The severe hail and wind threat should persist for at least a few more hours, especially in western to central NE. Portions of northeastern CO are being monitored for convective development. DISCUSSION...A mix of multicells and supercells have become established across portions of western NE into far northwestern KS, with several storms having a history of severe hail (particularly with a stationary supercell over Red Willow County, NE). Storms over northern NE have shown outflow tendencies, though an additional severe gust remains possible. Multicells and supercells should persist in western to central NE with a severe hail threat, as an ambient environment with 2500+ J/kg MLCAPE resides ahead of these storms. Another area of interest for witnessing a potential uptick in severe potential is northeastern CO. Here, multiple baroclinic boundaries are identifiable via surface observations. A boundary supporting convection just west of the KS/CO border (where a landspout was also reported) continues to slowly track westward. Of greater concern is a pronounced baroclinic boundary (accompanied by ample vertical-oriented low-level vorticity per 22Z mesoanalysis) draped across Chase County, NE to Washington County, CO. Mid to upper 50s F surface dewpoints reside along/immediately north of this boundary. Meanwhile, storms are gradually increasing in intensity as they approach this boundary, with MRMS mosaic radar data showing 40-50 dBZ cores quickly exceeding 50 kft. It is plausible that northeast CO may see an increased severe threat with any storms that favorably interact with either of these boundaries over the next few hours. Severe hail/wind are the main threats, though a landspout tornado cannot be ruled out, especially along the northeast CO boundary. ..Squitieri/Gleason.. 09/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 39740366 41360303 42530215 43080091 42810003 42239948 41449954 40649974 39899999 39570018 39380049 39320098 39340180 39450257 39740366 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

MD 2087 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 2087 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0524 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Areas affected...Arrowhead of Minnesota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 162224Z - 170030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A few strong-severe thunderstorms are developing over the Arrowhead region of Minnesota. Some risk for hail/wind can be expected with these storms. DISCUSSION...Southern extent of SK/ON short-wave trough is influencing the international border region, especially the Arrowhead of MN. Strong boundary-layer heating has contributed to substantial buoyancy across this region, and inhibition is currently negligible where temperatures have warmed into the mid 80s. Latest visible imagery supports this with a considerable amount of congestus and towering cu over St. Louis County. Over the last few minutes, a weak shower, with lightning, has developed near Ely and this updraft is likely rooted within a confluent boundary layer characterized by 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Forecast soundings favor some risk for hail/wind as thunderstorms intensify ahead of the short wave. This activity will spread across the Arrowhead into northwest ON, but current thinking is the area is too limited to issue a severe thunderstorm watch. ..Darrow/Gleason.. 09/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DLH... LAT...LON 47409303 48369129 47948953 46749205 47409303 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 162307
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Tue Sep 16 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Mario, located several hundred miles west of the southern
tip of the Baja California Peninsula.

Off the Coast of Southwestern Mexico (EP96):
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area
of low pressure located a few hundred miles off the coast of
southwestern Mexico have become more concentrated over the past
several hours. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
additional development of this system, and a tropical depression is
likely to form during the next couple of days as it moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the central east Pacific.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

MD 2086 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHEAST COLORADO INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 2086 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0447 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Areas affected...portions of far southeast Colorado into far southwestern Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 162147Z - 162315Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A few instances of severe hail may accompany the stronger storms that can mature, and a severe gust also cannot be ruled out. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have been increasing in intensity across southeastern CO into southwestern KS over the past 1-2 hours, with 50+ dBZ cores occasionally exceeding 30 kft per MRMS mosaic radar imagery. These storms are developing amid a steep mid-level lapse rate environment (e.g. 8 C/km), yielding 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE. Despite favorable buoyancy, vertical wind shear is relatively poor, and forcing for ascent should remain weak as well, which should limit the overall severe threat. Nonetheless, given steep mid-level lapse rates, any storm that can mature and achieve at least transient supercell structure may produce isolated instances of severe hail and perhaps a severe gust or two. ..Squitieri/Gleason.. 09/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...PUB... LAT...LON 37420333 38070280 38250125 38150054 37680041 37270053 37040085 36930143 36880202 36950266 37060305 37420333 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

Heat and the lack of rain prompted officials in some Indiana counties to enact burn bans. In Dearborn County, Indiana, the Board of Commissioners announced a burn ban. Other Indiana counties with bans included Franklin, Switzerland, and Union. WCPO-TV ABC 9 Cincinnati (Ohio), Sep 16, 2025

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z Shortwave ridging will rapidly build over the western US through midweek while aloft, an upper low will gradually strengthen over the East. There after, the upper-level flow pattern will gradually transition to stronger semi-zonal flow. Warm and dry conditions are likely initially, potentially followed by stronger winds and an increase in thunderstorm potential over the West through this weekend and into early next week. ...Northwest... High pressure will briefly build over the Northwest behind the upper low over the central US through the remainder of this week. This should support a significant warming trend and some fuel drying in response. Gusty west winds are also possible as a lee/thermal trough develops D3/Thursday. Later into the weekend, strong zonal flow will return, potentially supporting dry downslope conditions over the western Columbia Basin. This seem especially likely D5/Saturday and through the remainder of the weekend. With fuels expected to dry, some increase in fire-weather threat is possible into early next week as zonal flow continues. ...Eastern US... Warm and dry conditions are expected over much of the eastern/southeastern US through the extended forecast period. However, winds are expected to remain modest with high pressure in place. Area fuels will continue to dry with ongoing drought. Some potential for gusty northwest winds may develop D4/Friday through the weekend behind a cold front over the Northeast as the upper low moves offshore. The gusty offshore winds and dry conditions could potentially support localized fire-weather conditions through the weekend and into early next week. ...Thunderstorms... A sub-tropical air mass associated with the remnants of TS Mario over the eastern Pacific will overspread much of the West beginning the middle of this week. Accompanying the increase in moisture, strong southwesterly flow should also overspread the West Coast. This should favor scattered, primarily wet thunderstorms into the weekend across southern and central CA. Wetting rainfall potential appears high with PWATS near or exceeding 1 inch at times, which should temper area fuels. Farther north across northern CA and southern OR into the northern Great Basin, drier conditions at the fringes of the moisture surge could favor higher cloud bases and a greater risk for dry lightning through the weekend. The previous warming and drying episode could also allow fuels to be more receptive. However, model guidance continues to vary substantially on the thunderstorm threat and no probabilities will be assessed until a greater agreement in guidance is reached. ..Lyons.. 09/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z Shortwave ridging will rapidly build over the western US through midweek while aloft, an upper low will gradually strengthen over the East. There after, the upper-level flow pattern will gradually transition to stronger semi-zonal flow. Warm and dry conditions are likely initially, potentially followed by stronger winds and an increase in thunderstorm potential over the West through this weekend and into early next week. ...Northwest... High pressure will briefly build over the Northwest behind the upper low over the central US through the remainder of this week. This should support a significant warming trend and some fuel drying in response. Gusty west winds are also possible as a lee/thermal trough develops D3/Thursday. Later into the weekend, strong zonal flow will return, potentially supporting dry downslope conditions over the western Columbia Basin. This seem especially likely D5/Saturday and through the remainder of the weekend. With fuels expected to dry, some increase in fire-weather threat is possible into early next week as zonal flow continues. ...Eastern US... Warm and dry conditions are expected over much of the eastern/southeastern US through the extended forecast period. However, winds are expected to remain modest with high pressure in place. Area fuels will continue to dry with ongoing drought. Some potential for gusty northwest winds may develop D4/Friday through the weekend behind a cold front over the Northeast as the upper low moves offshore. The gusty offshore winds and dry conditions could potentially support localized fire-weather conditions through the weekend and into early next week. ...Thunderstorms... A sub-tropical air mass associated with the remnants of TS Mario over the eastern Pacific will overspread much of the West beginning the middle of this week. Accompanying the increase in moisture, strong southwesterly flow should also overspread the West Coast. This should favor scattered, primarily wet thunderstorms into the weekend across southern and central CA. Wetting rainfall potential appears high with PWATS near or exceeding 1 inch at times, which should temper area fuels. Farther north across northern CA and southern OR into the northern Great Basin, drier conditions at the fringes of the moisture surge could favor higher cloud bases and a greater risk for dry lightning through the weekend. The previous warming and drying episode could also allow fuels to be more receptive. However, model guidance continues to vary substantially on the thunderstorm threat and no probabilities will be assessed until a greater agreement in guidance is reached. ..Lyons.. 09/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z Shortwave ridging will rapidly build over the western US through midweek while aloft, an upper low will gradually strengthen over the East. There after, the upper-level flow pattern will gradually transition to stronger semi-zonal flow. Warm and dry conditions are likely initially, potentially followed by stronger winds and an increase in thunderstorm potential over the West through this weekend and into early next week. ...Northwest... High pressure will briefly build over the Northwest behind the upper low over the central US through the remainder of this week. This should support a significant warming trend and some fuel drying in response. Gusty west winds are also possible as a lee/thermal trough develops D3/Thursday. Later into the weekend, strong zonal flow will return, potentially supporting dry downslope conditions over the western Columbia Basin. This seem especially likely D5/Saturday and through the remainder of the weekend. With fuels expected to dry, some increase in fire-weather threat is possible into early next week as zonal flow continues. ...Eastern US... Warm and dry conditions are expected over much of the eastern/southeastern US through the extended forecast period. However, winds are expected to remain modest with high pressure in place. Area fuels will continue to dry with ongoing drought. Some potential for gusty northwest winds may develop D4/Friday through the weekend behind a cold front over the Northeast as the upper low moves offshore. The gusty offshore winds and dry conditions could potentially support localized fire-weather conditions through the weekend and into early next week. ...Thunderstorms... A sub-tropical air mass associated with the remnants of TS Mario over the eastern Pacific will overspread much of the West beginning the middle of this week. Accompanying the increase in moisture, strong southwesterly flow should also overspread the West Coast. This should favor scattered, primarily wet thunderstorms into the weekend across southern and central CA. Wetting rainfall potential appears high with PWATS near or exceeding 1 inch at times, which should temper area fuels. Farther north across northern CA and southern OR into the northern Great Basin, drier conditions at the fringes of the moisture surge could favor higher cloud bases and a greater risk for dry lightning through the weekend. The previous warming and drying episode could also allow fuels to be more receptive. However, model guidance continues to vary substantially on the thunderstorm threat and no probabilities will be assessed until a greater agreement in guidance is reached. ..Lyons.. 09/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z Shortwave ridging will rapidly build over the western US through midweek while aloft, an upper low will gradually strengthen over the East. There after, the upper-level flow pattern will gradually transition to stronger semi-zonal flow. Warm and dry conditions are likely initially, potentially followed by stronger winds and an increase in thunderstorm potential over the West through this weekend and into early next week. ...Northwest... High pressure will briefly build over the Northwest behind the upper low over the central US through the remainder of this week. This should support a significant warming trend and some fuel drying in response. Gusty west winds are also possible as a lee/thermal trough develops D3/Thursday. Later into the weekend, strong zonal flow will return, potentially supporting dry downslope conditions over the western Columbia Basin. This seem especially likely D5/Saturday and through the remainder of the weekend. With fuels expected to dry, some increase in fire-weather threat is possible into early next week as zonal flow continues. ...Eastern US... Warm and dry conditions are expected over much of the eastern/southeastern US through the extended forecast period. However, winds are expected to remain modest with high pressure in place. Area fuels will continue to dry with ongoing drought. Some potential for gusty northwest winds may develop D4/Friday through the weekend behind a cold front over the Northeast as the upper low moves offshore. The gusty offshore winds and dry conditions could potentially support localized fire-weather conditions through the weekend and into early next week. ...Thunderstorms... A sub-tropical air mass associated with the remnants of TS Mario over the eastern Pacific will overspread much of the West beginning the middle of this week. Accompanying the increase in moisture, strong southwesterly flow should also overspread the West Coast. This should favor scattered, primarily wet thunderstorms into the weekend across southern and central CA. Wetting rainfall potential appears high with PWATS near or exceeding 1 inch at times, which should temper area fuels. Farther north across northern CA and southern OR into the northern Great Basin, drier conditions at the fringes of the moisture surge could favor higher cloud bases and a greater risk for dry lightning through the weekend. The previous warming and drying episode could also allow fuels to be more receptive. However, model guidance continues to vary substantially on the thunderstorm threat and no probabilities will be assessed until a greater agreement in guidance is reached. ..Lyons.. 09/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z Shortwave ridging will rapidly build over the western US through midweek while aloft, an upper low will gradually strengthen over the East. There after, the upper-level flow pattern will gradually transition to stronger semi-zonal flow. Warm and dry conditions are likely initially, potentially followed by stronger winds and an increase in thunderstorm potential over the West through this weekend and into early next week. ...Northwest... High pressure will briefly build over the Northwest behind the upper low over the central US through the remainder of this week. This should support a significant warming trend and some fuel drying in response. Gusty west winds are also possible as a lee/thermal trough develops D3/Thursday. Later into the weekend, strong zonal flow will return, potentially supporting dry downslope conditions over the western Columbia Basin. This seem especially likely D5/Saturday and through the remainder of the weekend. With fuels expected to dry, some increase in fire-weather threat is possible into early next week as zonal flow continues. ...Eastern US... Warm and dry conditions are expected over much of the eastern/southeastern US through the extended forecast period. However, winds are expected to remain modest with high pressure in place. Area fuels will continue to dry with ongoing drought. Some potential for gusty northwest winds may develop D4/Friday through the weekend behind a cold front over the Northeast as the upper low moves offshore. The gusty offshore winds and dry conditions could potentially support localized fire-weather conditions through the weekend and into early next week. ...Thunderstorms... A sub-tropical air mass associated with the remnants of TS Mario over the eastern Pacific will overspread much of the West beginning the middle of this week. Accompanying the increase in moisture, strong southwesterly flow should also overspread the West Coast. This should favor scattered, primarily wet thunderstorms into the weekend across southern and central CA. Wetting rainfall potential appears high with PWATS near or exceeding 1 inch at times, which should temper area fuels. Farther north across northern CA and southern OR into the northern Great Basin, drier conditions at the fringes of the moisture surge could favor higher cloud bases and a greater risk for dry lightning through the weekend. The previous warming and drying episode could also allow fuels to be more receptive. However, model guidance continues to vary substantially on the thunderstorm threat and no probabilities will be assessed until a greater agreement in guidance is reached. ..Lyons.. 09/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z Shortwave ridging will rapidly build over the western US through midweek while aloft, an upper low will gradually strengthen over the East. There after, the upper-level flow pattern will gradually transition to stronger semi-zonal flow. Warm and dry conditions are likely initially, potentially followed by stronger winds and an increase in thunderstorm potential over the West through this weekend and into early next week. ...Northwest... High pressure will briefly build over the Northwest behind the upper low over the central US through the remainder of this week. This should support a significant warming trend and some fuel drying in response. Gusty west winds are also possible as a lee/thermal trough develops D3/Thursday. Later into the weekend, strong zonal flow will return, potentially supporting dry downslope conditions over the western Columbia Basin. This seem especially likely D5/Saturday and through the remainder of the weekend. With fuels expected to dry, some increase in fire-weather threat is possible into early next week as zonal flow continues. ...Eastern US... Warm and dry conditions are expected over much of the eastern/southeastern US through the extended forecast period. However, winds are expected to remain modest with high pressure in place. Area fuels will continue to dry with ongoing drought. Some potential for gusty northwest winds may develop D4/Friday through the weekend behind a cold front over the Northeast as the upper low moves offshore. The gusty offshore winds and dry conditions could potentially support localized fire-weather conditions through the weekend and into early next week. ...Thunderstorms... A sub-tropical air mass associated with the remnants of TS Mario over the eastern Pacific will overspread much of the West beginning the middle of this week. Accompanying the increase in moisture, strong southwesterly flow should also overspread the West Coast. This should favor scattered, primarily wet thunderstorms into the weekend across southern and central CA. Wetting rainfall potential appears high with PWATS near or exceeding 1 inch at times, which should temper area fuels. Farther north across northern CA and southern OR into the northern Great Basin, drier conditions at the fringes of the moisture surge could favor higher cloud bases and a greater risk for dry lightning through the weekend. The previous warming and drying episode could also allow fuels to be more receptive. However, model guidance continues to vary substantially on the thunderstorm threat and no probabilities will be assessed until a greater agreement in guidance is reached. ..Lyons.. 09/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z Shortwave ridging will rapidly build over the western US through midweek while aloft, an upper low will gradually strengthen over the East. There after, the upper-level flow pattern will gradually transition to stronger semi-zonal flow. Warm and dry conditions are likely initially, potentially followed by stronger winds and an increase in thunderstorm potential over the West through this weekend and into early next week. ...Northwest... High pressure will briefly build over the Northwest behind the upper low over the central US through the remainder of this week. This should support a significant warming trend and some fuel drying in response. Gusty west winds are also possible as a lee/thermal trough develops D3/Thursday. Later into the weekend, strong zonal flow will return, potentially supporting dry downslope conditions over the western Columbia Basin. This seem especially likely D5/Saturday and through the remainder of the weekend. With fuels expected to dry, some increase in fire-weather threat is possible into early next week as zonal flow continues. ...Eastern US... Warm and dry conditions are expected over much of the eastern/southeastern US through the extended forecast period. However, winds are expected to remain modest with high pressure in place. Area fuels will continue to dry with ongoing drought. Some potential for gusty northwest winds may develop D4/Friday through the weekend behind a cold front over the Northeast as the upper low moves offshore. The gusty offshore winds and dry conditions could potentially support localized fire-weather conditions through the weekend and into early next week. ...Thunderstorms... A sub-tropical air mass associated with the remnants of TS Mario over the eastern Pacific will overspread much of the West beginning the middle of this week. Accompanying the increase in moisture, strong southwesterly flow should also overspread the West Coast. This should favor scattered, primarily wet thunderstorms into the weekend across southern and central CA. Wetting rainfall potential appears high with PWATS near or exceeding 1 inch at times, which should temper area fuels. Farther north across northern CA and southern OR into the northern Great Basin, drier conditions at the fringes of the moisture surge could favor higher cloud bases and a greater risk for dry lightning through the weekend. The previous warming and drying episode could also allow fuels to be more receptive. However, model guidance continues to vary substantially on the thunderstorm threat and no probabilities will be assessed until a greater agreement in guidance is reached. ..Lyons.. 09/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z Shortwave ridging will rapidly build over the western US through midweek while aloft, an upper low will gradually strengthen over the East. There after, the upper-level flow pattern will gradually transition to stronger semi-zonal flow. Warm and dry conditions are likely initially, potentially followed by stronger winds and an increase in thunderstorm potential over the West through this weekend and into early next week. ...Northwest... High pressure will briefly build over the Northwest behind the upper low over the central US through the remainder of this week. This should support a significant warming trend and some fuel drying in response. Gusty west winds are also possible as a lee/thermal trough develops D3/Thursday. Later into the weekend, strong zonal flow will return, potentially supporting dry downslope conditions over the western Columbia Basin. This seem especially likely D5/Saturday and through the remainder of the weekend. With fuels expected to dry, some increase in fire-weather threat is possible into early next week as zonal flow continues. ...Eastern US... Warm and dry conditions are expected over much of the eastern/southeastern US through the extended forecast period. However, winds are expected to remain modest with high pressure in place. Area fuels will continue to dry with ongoing drought. Some potential for gusty northwest winds may develop D4/Friday through the weekend behind a cold front over the Northeast as the upper low moves offshore. The gusty offshore winds and dry conditions could potentially support localized fire-weather conditions through the weekend and into early next week. ...Thunderstorms... A sub-tropical air mass associated with the remnants of TS Mario over the eastern Pacific will overspread much of the West beginning the middle of this week. Accompanying the increase in moisture, strong southwesterly flow should also overspread the West Coast. This should favor scattered, primarily wet thunderstorms into the weekend across southern and central CA. Wetting rainfall potential appears high with PWATS near or exceeding 1 inch at times, which should temper area fuels. Farther north across northern CA and southern OR into the northern Great Basin, drier conditions at the fringes of the moisture surge could favor higher cloud bases and a greater risk for dry lightning through the weekend. The previous warming and drying episode could also allow fuels to be more receptive. However, model guidance continues to vary substantially on the thunderstorm threat and no probabilities will be assessed until a greater agreement in guidance is reached. ..Lyons.. 09/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z Shortwave ridging will rapidly build over the western US through midweek while aloft, an upper low will gradually strengthen over the East. There after, the upper-level flow pattern will gradually transition to stronger semi-zonal flow. Warm and dry conditions are likely initially, potentially followed by stronger winds and an increase in thunderstorm potential over the West through this weekend and into early next week. ...Northwest... High pressure will briefly build over the Northwest behind the upper low over the central US through the remainder of this week. This should support a significant warming trend and some fuel drying in response. Gusty west winds are also possible as a lee/thermal trough develops D3/Thursday. Later into the weekend, strong zonal flow will return, potentially supporting dry downslope conditions over the western Columbia Basin. This seem especially likely D5/Saturday and through the remainder of the weekend. With fuels expected to dry, some increase in fire-weather threat is possible into early next week as zonal flow continues. ...Eastern US... Warm and dry conditions are expected over much of the eastern/southeastern US through the extended forecast period. However, winds are expected to remain modest with high pressure in place. Area fuels will continue to dry with ongoing drought. Some potential for gusty northwest winds may develop D4/Friday through the weekend behind a cold front over the Northeast as the upper low moves offshore. The gusty offshore winds and dry conditions could potentially support localized fire-weather conditions through the weekend and into early next week. ...Thunderstorms... A sub-tropical air mass associated with the remnants of TS Mario over the eastern Pacific will overspread much of the West beginning the middle of this week. Accompanying the increase in moisture, strong southwesterly flow should also overspread the West Coast. This should favor scattered, primarily wet thunderstorms into the weekend across southern and central CA. Wetting rainfall potential appears high with PWATS near or exceeding 1 inch at times, which should temper area fuels. Farther north across northern CA and southern OR into the northern Great Basin, drier conditions at the fringes of the moisture surge could favor higher cloud bases and a greater risk for dry lightning through the weekend. The previous warming and drying episode could also allow fuels to be more receptive. However, model guidance continues to vary substantially on the thunderstorm threat and no probabilities will be assessed until a greater agreement in guidance is reached. ..Lyons.. 09/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z Shortwave ridging will rapidly build over the western US through midweek while aloft, an upper low will gradually strengthen over the East. There after, the upper-level flow pattern will gradually transition to stronger semi-zonal flow. Warm and dry conditions are likely initially, potentially followed by stronger winds and an increase in thunderstorm potential over the West through this weekend and into early next week. ...Northwest... High pressure will briefly build over the Northwest behind the upper low over the central US through the remainder of this week. This should support a significant warming trend and some fuel drying in response. Gusty west winds are also possible as a lee/thermal trough develops D3/Thursday. Later into the weekend, strong zonal flow will return, potentially supporting dry downslope conditions over the western Columbia Basin. This seem especially likely D5/Saturday and through the remainder of the weekend. With fuels expected to dry, some increase in fire-weather threat is possible into early next week as zonal flow continues. ...Eastern US... Warm and dry conditions are expected over much of the eastern/southeastern US through the extended forecast period. However, winds are expected to remain modest with high pressure in place. Area fuels will continue to dry with ongoing drought. Some potential for gusty northwest winds may develop D4/Friday through the weekend behind a cold front over the Northeast as the upper low moves offshore. The gusty offshore winds and dry conditions could potentially support localized fire-weather conditions through the weekend and into early next week. ...Thunderstorms... A sub-tropical air mass associated with the remnants of TS Mario over the eastern Pacific will overspread much of the West beginning the middle of this week. Accompanying the increase in moisture, strong southwesterly flow should also overspread the West Coast. This should favor scattered, primarily wet thunderstorms into the weekend across southern and central CA. Wetting rainfall potential appears high with PWATS near or exceeding 1 inch at times, which should temper area fuels. Farther north across northern CA and southern OR into the northern Great Basin, drier conditions at the fringes of the moisture surge could favor higher cloud bases and a greater risk for dry lightning through the weekend. The previous warming and drying episode could also allow fuels to be more receptive. However, model guidance continues to vary substantially on the thunderstorm threat and no probabilities will be assessed until a greater agreement in guidance is reached. ..Lyons.. 09/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more