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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A weakening mid- to upper-level low centered over NE/SD will meander slowly eastward over NE/KS and an associated trough axis pivoting from northeastern NM into OK. Weak surface low pressure will encompass the eastern portions of the Plains into the MO/MS Valley vicinity. Upper 50s to mid 60s F dewpoints will be in place from portions of the southern Plains into the Ozarks and northward to the Upper Midwest. Pockets of weak to moderate instability will promote diurnally driven scattered thunderstorms within this corridor. However, severe potential should remain limited given nebulous forcing for ascent, weak vertical shear and poor lapse rates. ..Smith.. 09/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A weakening mid- to upper-level low centered over NE/SD will meander slowly eastward over NE/KS and an associated trough axis pivoting from northeastern NM into OK. Weak surface low pressure will encompass the eastern portions of the Plains into the MO/MS Valley vicinity. Upper 50s to mid 60s F dewpoints will be in place from portions of the southern Plains into the Ozarks and northward to the Upper Midwest. Pockets of weak to moderate instability will promote diurnally driven scattered thunderstorms within this corridor. However, severe potential should remain limited given nebulous forcing for ascent, weak vertical shear and poor lapse rates. ..Smith.. 09/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A weakening mid- to upper-level low centered over NE/SD will meander slowly eastward over NE/KS and an associated trough axis pivoting from northeastern NM into OK. Weak surface low pressure will encompass the eastern portions of the Plains into the MO/MS Valley vicinity. Upper 50s to mid 60s F dewpoints will be in place from portions of the southern Plains into the Ozarks and northward to the Upper Midwest. Pockets of weak to moderate instability will promote diurnally driven scattered thunderstorms within this corridor. However, severe potential should remain limited given nebulous forcing for ascent, weak vertical shear and poor lapse rates. ..Smith.. 09/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A weakening mid- to upper-level low centered over NE/SD will meander slowly eastward over NE/KS and an associated trough axis pivoting from northeastern NM into OK. Weak surface low pressure will encompass the eastern portions of the Plains into the MO/MS Valley vicinity. Upper 50s to mid 60s F dewpoints will be in place from portions of the southern Plains into the Ozarks and northward to the Upper Midwest. Pockets of weak to moderate instability will promote diurnally driven scattered thunderstorms within this corridor. However, severe potential should remain limited given nebulous forcing for ascent, weak vertical shear and poor lapse rates. ..Smith.. 09/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A weakening mid- to upper-level low centered over NE/SD will meander slowly eastward over NE/KS and an associated trough axis pivoting from northeastern NM into OK. Weak surface low pressure will encompass the eastern portions of the Plains into the MO/MS Valley vicinity. Upper 50s to mid 60s F dewpoints will be in place from portions of the southern Plains into the Ozarks and northward to the Upper Midwest. Pockets of weak to moderate instability will promote diurnally driven scattered thunderstorms within this corridor. However, severe potential should remain limited given nebulous forcing for ascent, weak vertical shear and poor lapse rates. ..Smith.. 09/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A weakening mid- to upper-level low centered over NE/SD will meander slowly eastward over NE/KS and an associated trough axis pivoting from northeastern NM into OK. Weak surface low pressure will encompass the eastern portions of the Plains into the MO/MS Valley vicinity. Upper 50s to mid 60s F dewpoints will be in place from portions of the southern Plains into the Ozarks and northward to the Upper Midwest. Pockets of weak to moderate instability will promote diurnally driven scattered thunderstorms within this corridor. However, severe potential should remain limited given nebulous forcing for ascent, weak vertical shear and poor lapse rates. ..Smith.. 09/16/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0209 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...19z Update... No Changes, see previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 09/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0205 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025/ ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure will remain in place over much of the central and northern Rockies due to a stationary mid-level trough over the northern High Plains tomorrow (Wednesday). This synoptic pattern will once again promote mainly quiescent fire weather conditions over much of the Interior west. A dry low-level airmass will also linger over portions of the Ohio Valley, atop drying fuels. However, the lack of stronger surface winds suggests that Elevated highlights are not currently warranted. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0209 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...19z Update... No Changes, see previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 09/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0205 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025/ ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure will remain in place over much of the central and northern Rockies due to a stationary mid-level trough over the northern High Plains tomorrow (Wednesday). This synoptic pattern will once again promote mainly quiescent fire weather conditions over much of the Interior west. A dry low-level airmass will also linger over portions of the Ohio Valley, atop drying fuels. However, the lack of stronger surface winds suggests that Elevated highlights are not currently warranted. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0209 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...19z Update... No Changes, see previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 09/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0205 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025/ ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure will remain in place over much of the central and northern Rockies due to a stationary mid-level trough over the northern High Plains tomorrow (Wednesday). This synoptic pattern will once again promote mainly quiescent fire weather conditions over much of the Interior west. A dry low-level airmass will also linger over portions of the Ohio Valley, atop drying fuels. However, the lack of stronger surface winds suggests that Elevated highlights are not currently warranted. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0209 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...19z Update... No Changes, see previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 09/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0205 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025/ ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure will remain in place over much of the central and northern Rockies due to a stationary mid-level trough over the northern High Plains tomorrow (Wednesday). This synoptic pattern will once again promote mainly quiescent fire weather conditions over much of the Interior west. A dry low-level airmass will also linger over portions of the Ohio Valley, atop drying fuels. However, the lack of stronger surface winds suggests that Elevated highlights are not currently warranted. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0209 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...19z Update... No Changes, see previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 09/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0205 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025/ ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure will remain in place over much of the central and northern Rockies due to a stationary mid-level trough over the northern High Plains tomorrow (Wednesday). This synoptic pattern will once again promote mainly quiescent fire weather conditions over much of the Interior west. A dry low-level airmass will also linger over portions of the Ohio Valley, atop drying fuels. However, the lack of stronger surface winds suggests that Elevated highlights are not currently warranted. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0209 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...19z Update... No Changes, see previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 09/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0205 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025/ ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure will remain in place over much of the central and northern Rockies due to a stationary mid-level trough over the northern High Plains tomorrow (Wednesday). This synoptic pattern will once again promote mainly quiescent fire weather conditions over much of the Interior west. A dry low-level airmass will also linger over portions of the Ohio Valley, atop drying fuels. However, the lack of stronger surface winds suggests that Elevated highlights are not currently warranted. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0209 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...19z Update... No Changes, see previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 09/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0205 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025/ ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure will remain in place over much of the central and northern Rockies due to a stationary mid-level trough over the northern High Plains tomorrow (Wednesday). This synoptic pattern will once again promote mainly quiescent fire weather conditions over much of the Interior west. A dry low-level airmass will also linger over portions of the Ohio Valley, atop drying fuels. However, the lack of stronger surface winds suggests that Elevated highlights are not currently warranted. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0209 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...19z Update... No Changes, see previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 09/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0205 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025/ ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure will remain in place over much of the central and northern Rockies due to a stationary mid-level trough over the northern High Plains tomorrow (Wednesday). This synoptic pattern will once again promote mainly quiescent fire weather conditions over much of the Interior west. A dry low-level airmass will also linger over portions of the Ohio Valley, atop drying fuels. However, the lack of stronger surface winds suggests that Elevated highlights are not currently warranted. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0209 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...19z Update... No Changes, see previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 09/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0205 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025/ ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure will remain in place over much of the central and northern Rockies due to a stationary mid-level trough over the northern High Plains tomorrow (Wednesday). This synoptic pattern will once again promote mainly quiescent fire weather conditions over much of the Interior west. A dry low-level airmass will also linger over portions of the Ohio Valley, atop drying fuels. However, the lack of stronger surface winds suggests that Elevated highlights are not currently warranted. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0209 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...19z Update... No Changes, see previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 09/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0205 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025/ ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure will remain in place over much of the central and northern Rockies due to a stationary mid-level trough over the northern High Plains tomorrow (Wednesday). This synoptic pattern will once again promote mainly quiescent fire weather conditions over much of the Interior west. A dry low-level airmass will also linger over portions of the Ohio Valley, atop drying fuels. However, the lack of stronger surface winds suggests that Elevated highlights are not currently warranted. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0209 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...19z Update... No Changes, see previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 09/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0205 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025/ ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure will remain in place over much of the central and northern Rockies due to a stationary mid-level trough over the northern High Plains tomorrow (Wednesday). This synoptic pattern will once again promote mainly quiescent fire weather conditions over much of the Interior west. A dry low-level airmass will also linger over portions of the Ohio Valley, atop drying fuels. However, the lack of stronger surface winds suggests that Elevated highlights are not currently warranted. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0209 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...19z Update... No Changes, see previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 09/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0205 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025/ ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure will remain in place over much of the central and northern Rockies due to a stationary mid-level trough over the northern High Plains tomorrow (Wednesday). This synoptic pattern will once again promote mainly quiescent fire weather conditions over much of the Interior west. A dry low-level airmass will also linger over portions of the Ohio Valley, atop drying fuels. However, the lack of stronger surface winds suggests that Elevated highlights are not currently warranted. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday over southeast Colorado and northeast New Mexico during the late afternoon and evening. ...High Plains in lee of the Sangre de Cristos... A mid- to upper-level low/trough centered over the north-central Rockies and adjacent plains, will feature a few embedded mid-level vorticity maxima rotating through the larger-scale trough. The primary disturbance of interest will slowly migrate eastward from northeast CO into central NE during the period. A belt of moderate mid- to high-level westerly flow (i.e., 20-30 kt at 500 mb) will move through the base of the trough across southern CO. In the low levels, a front will become draped from the mid MO Valley south-southwest into the KS-CO-OK-TX-NM border region. Southeasterly moist post-frontal upslope flow will aid in a moist airmass over southeast CO on Wednesday. Steep 700-500 mb lapse rates around 7.5 to 8 deg C/km coupled with diurnal heating on the east-facing slopes, will result in moderate buoyancy by mid afternoon near the I-25 corridor over far northeast NM into southeast CO. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms developing initially over the higher terrain will move east into the high plains/escarpment and gradually mature/strengthen. Forecast soundings show 30-45 kt effective shear and elongated hodographs due to 75-kt 200-mb westerly flow. The magnitude of shear and appreciable buoyancy will probably favor an isolated risk for large hail and severe gusts with the stronger storms during the late afternoon/early evening. ...Northern OK into MN/WI... A seasonally moist airmass will be in place to the east of a surface boundary extending from eastern SD into central/southwest KS by late afternoon. Rounds of showers and thunderstorms are possible, and may be ongoing across parts of the region Wednesday morning. This activity and associated cloud cover cast doubt on where stronger destabilization will occur through peak heating. Furthermore, vertical shear is expected to remain weak, and lapse rates will be poor, especially with northward extent. A strong storm or two will be possible where stronger destabilization occurs, but overall severe potential is expected to remain limited. ..Smith.. 09/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday over southeast Colorado and northeast New Mexico during the late afternoon and evening. ...High Plains in lee of the Sangre de Cristos... A mid- to upper-level low/trough centered over the north-central Rockies and adjacent plains, will feature a few embedded mid-level vorticity maxima rotating through the larger-scale trough. The primary disturbance of interest will slowly migrate eastward from northeast CO into central NE during the period. A belt of moderate mid- to high-level westerly flow (i.e., 20-30 kt at 500 mb) will move through the base of the trough across southern CO. In the low levels, a front will become draped from the mid MO Valley south-southwest into the KS-CO-OK-TX-NM border region. Southeasterly moist post-frontal upslope flow will aid in a moist airmass over southeast CO on Wednesday. Steep 700-500 mb lapse rates around 7.5 to 8 deg C/km coupled with diurnal heating on the east-facing slopes, will result in moderate buoyancy by mid afternoon near the I-25 corridor over far northeast NM into southeast CO. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms developing initially over the higher terrain will move east into the high plains/escarpment and gradually mature/strengthen. Forecast soundings show 30-45 kt effective shear and elongated hodographs due to 75-kt 200-mb westerly flow. The magnitude of shear and appreciable buoyancy will probably favor an isolated risk for large hail and severe gusts with the stronger storms during the late afternoon/early evening. ...Northern OK into MN/WI... A seasonally moist airmass will be in place to the east of a surface boundary extending from eastern SD into central/southwest KS by late afternoon. Rounds of showers and thunderstorms are possible, and may be ongoing across parts of the region Wednesday morning. This activity and associated cloud cover cast doubt on where stronger destabilization will occur through peak heating. Furthermore, vertical shear is expected to remain weak, and lapse rates will be poor, especially with northward extent. A strong storm or two will be possible where stronger destabilization occurs, but overall severe potential is expected to remain limited. ..Smith.. 09/16/2025 Read more