Aggregator

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential is expected to remain limited on Wednesday. ...Central/Southern High Plains Vicinity... An upper trough will overspread the northern Plains to the southern High Plains. With time, an upper low is forecast to develop within the broader troughing regime over the northern High Plains vicinity. Deep-layer flow will generally be weak, limiting vertical shear. However, a surface front is forecast to be oriented from far southeast CO/northeast NM eastward along the KS/OK border. East/southeasterly low-level flow near the boundary could enhanced vertical shear locally, with effective shear values up to 25-30 kt possible by late afternoon/evening. Boundary layer moisture will be modest, in the 50s to low 60s F from the Raton Mesa vicinity into southwest KS and the OK/TX Panhandles. Nevertheless, steep midlevel lapse rates and cool temperatures aloft will support MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg. Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop by late afternoon in the upslope flow regime. The strongest storms could produce sub-severe hail and gusty winds across southeast CO/northeast NM, southwest KS and portions of the OK/TX Panhandles. ...Northern OK into MN/WI... A seasonally moist airmass will be in place to the east of a surface boundary extending from eastern SD into central/southwest KS by late afternoon. Rounds of showers and thunderstorms are possible, and may be ongoing across parts of the region Wednesday morning. This activity and associated cloud cover cast doubt on where stronger destabilization will occur through peak heating. Furthermore, vertical shear is expected to remain weak, and lapse rates will be poor, especially with northward extent. A strong storm or two will be possible where stronger destabilization occurs, but overall severe potential is expected to remain limited. ..Leitman.. 09/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential is expected to remain limited on Wednesday. ...Central/Southern High Plains Vicinity... An upper trough will overspread the northern Plains to the southern High Plains. With time, an upper low is forecast to develop within the broader troughing regime over the northern High Plains vicinity. Deep-layer flow will generally be weak, limiting vertical shear. However, a surface front is forecast to be oriented from far southeast CO/northeast NM eastward along the KS/OK border. East/southeasterly low-level flow near the boundary could enhanced vertical shear locally, with effective shear values up to 25-30 kt possible by late afternoon/evening. Boundary layer moisture will be modest, in the 50s to low 60s F from the Raton Mesa vicinity into southwest KS and the OK/TX Panhandles. Nevertheless, steep midlevel lapse rates and cool temperatures aloft will support MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg. Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop by late afternoon in the upslope flow regime. The strongest storms could produce sub-severe hail and gusty winds across southeast CO/northeast NM, southwest KS and portions of the OK/TX Panhandles. ...Northern OK into MN/WI... A seasonally moist airmass will be in place to the east of a surface boundary extending from eastern SD into central/southwest KS by late afternoon. Rounds of showers and thunderstorms are possible, and may be ongoing across parts of the region Wednesday morning. This activity and associated cloud cover cast doubt on where stronger destabilization will occur through peak heating. Furthermore, vertical shear is expected to remain weak, and lapse rates will be poor, especially with northward extent. A strong storm or two will be possible where stronger destabilization occurs, but overall severe potential is expected to remain limited. ..Leitman.. 09/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential is expected to remain limited on Wednesday. ...Central/Southern High Plains Vicinity... An upper trough will overspread the northern Plains to the southern High Plains. With time, an upper low is forecast to develop within the broader troughing regime over the northern High Plains vicinity. Deep-layer flow will generally be weak, limiting vertical shear. However, a surface front is forecast to be oriented from far southeast CO/northeast NM eastward along the KS/OK border. East/southeasterly low-level flow near the boundary could enhanced vertical shear locally, with effective shear values up to 25-30 kt possible by late afternoon/evening. Boundary layer moisture will be modest, in the 50s to low 60s F from the Raton Mesa vicinity into southwest KS and the OK/TX Panhandles. Nevertheless, steep midlevel lapse rates and cool temperatures aloft will support MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg. Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop by late afternoon in the upslope flow regime. The strongest storms could produce sub-severe hail and gusty winds across southeast CO/northeast NM, southwest KS and portions of the OK/TX Panhandles. ...Northern OK into MN/WI... A seasonally moist airmass will be in place to the east of a surface boundary extending from eastern SD into central/southwest KS by late afternoon. Rounds of showers and thunderstorms are possible, and may be ongoing across parts of the region Wednesday morning. This activity and associated cloud cover cast doubt on where stronger destabilization will occur through peak heating. Furthermore, vertical shear is expected to remain weak, and lapse rates will be poor, especially with northward extent. A strong storm or two will be possible where stronger destabilization occurs, but overall severe potential is expected to remain limited. ..Leitman.. 09/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF NE/CO/KS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into early evening across a portion of the central Great Plains. Large hail, severe gusts, and a tornado or two may occur. ...NE/KS/CO... An elongated, positive-tilt shortwave trough will effectively drift eastward, pivoting across WY, as multiple embedded impulses rotate through it during the period. A confined belt of moderate flow should be centered from the eastern Great Basin to western SD this afternoon. Much of this will lag to the west of the large buoyancy plume from the NE/KS/CO border area northeast to the Upper Midwest. Isolated elevated storms may increase/intensify towards midday across the NE Panhandle. Scattered to eventually widespread surface-based storms are expected through the afternoon, both along the diurnally sharpening front and in the post-frontal environment emanating off the CO Rockies/Front Range. Rather steep mid-level lapse rates will be supportive of large hail. But the modest deep-layer shear along the front and early upscale growth to linear clusters should modulate hail magnitudes. Linear clustering appears most probable over southwest NE, which should support a short-duration uptick in severe wind potential. While most guidance indicates a strengthening low-level jet into early/mid evening, the lack of stronger mid/upper-level winds should foster a waning severe threat after dusk. ...Eastern SD to northeast MN... Mid-level flow will be weak across most of the Upper Midwest, except across northeast MN. This area will remain on the peripheral influence of multiple shortwave impulses over south-central Canada. Low-level convergence should be weak until early evening, with convective coverage appearing isolated northeast of eastern SD. Still, the lobe of steep lapse rates emanating northeast from the central High Plains will support a swath of moderate to large MLCAPE. Any sustained storms along the weak front should pose an isolated threat for severe hail and damaging winds. ...VA Tidewater and far northeast NC... A weak cyclone east of the Outer Banks is progged to drift northwestward towards the NC/VA border area by this afternoon. Low-level flow enhancement to its northwest will promote potential for strong to marginally severe gusts with any sustained convection near the cyclone core. However, the airmass over land should remain thermodynamically limited. Surface winds shifting from the north to northeast will be necessary for the advection of near-70 F surface dew points, supportive of meager surface-based instability. This may only glance the coast later this morning into early afternoon before low-level wind fields subside and the severe risk becomes negligible. ..Grams/Squitieri.. 09/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF NE/CO/KS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into early evening across a portion of the central Great Plains. Large hail, severe gusts, and a tornado or two may occur. ...NE/KS/CO... An elongated, positive-tilt shortwave trough will effectively drift eastward, pivoting across WY, as multiple embedded impulses rotate through it during the period. A confined belt of moderate flow should be centered from the eastern Great Basin to western SD this afternoon. Much of this will lag to the west of the large buoyancy plume from the NE/KS/CO border area northeast to the Upper Midwest. Isolated elevated storms may increase/intensify towards midday across the NE Panhandle. Scattered to eventually widespread surface-based storms are expected through the afternoon, both along the diurnally sharpening front and in the post-frontal environment emanating off the CO Rockies/Front Range. Rather steep mid-level lapse rates will be supportive of large hail. But the modest deep-layer shear along the front and early upscale growth to linear clusters should modulate hail magnitudes. Linear clustering appears most probable over southwest NE, which should support a short-duration uptick in severe wind potential. While most guidance indicates a strengthening low-level jet into early/mid evening, the lack of stronger mid/upper-level winds should foster a waning severe threat after dusk. ...Eastern SD to northeast MN... Mid-level flow will be weak across most of the Upper Midwest, except across northeast MN. This area will remain on the peripheral influence of multiple shortwave impulses over south-central Canada. Low-level convergence should be weak until early evening, with convective coverage appearing isolated northeast of eastern SD. Still, the lobe of steep lapse rates emanating northeast from the central High Plains will support a swath of moderate to large MLCAPE. Any sustained storms along the weak front should pose an isolated threat for severe hail and damaging winds. ...VA Tidewater and far northeast NC... A weak cyclone east of the Outer Banks is progged to drift northwestward towards the NC/VA border area by this afternoon. Low-level flow enhancement to its northwest will promote potential for strong to marginally severe gusts with any sustained convection near the cyclone core. However, the airmass over land should remain thermodynamically limited. Surface winds shifting from the north to northeast will be necessary for the advection of near-70 F surface dew points, supportive of meager surface-based instability. This may only glance the coast later this morning into early afternoon before low-level wind fields subside and the severe risk becomes negligible. ..Grams/Squitieri.. 09/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF NE/CO/KS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into early evening across a portion of the central Great Plains. Large hail, severe gusts, and a tornado or two may occur. ...NE/KS/CO... An elongated, positive-tilt shortwave trough will effectively drift eastward, pivoting across WY, as multiple embedded impulses rotate through it during the period. A confined belt of moderate flow should be centered from the eastern Great Basin to western SD this afternoon. Much of this will lag to the west of the large buoyancy plume from the NE/KS/CO border area northeast to the Upper Midwest. Isolated elevated storms may increase/intensify towards midday across the NE Panhandle. Scattered to eventually widespread surface-based storms are expected through the afternoon, both along the diurnally sharpening front and in the post-frontal environment emanating off the CO Rockies/Front Range. Rather steep mid-level lapse rates will be supportive of large hail. But the modest deep-layer shear along the front and early upscale growth to linear clusters should modulate hail magnitudes. Linear clustering appears most probable over southwest NE, which should support a short-duration uptick in severe wind potential. While most guidance indicates a strengthening low-level jet into early/mid evening, the lack of stronger mid/upper-level winds should foster a waning severe threat after dusk. ...Eastern SD to northeast MN... Mid-level flow will be weak across most of the Upper Midwest, except across northeast MN. This area will remain on the peripheral influence of multiple shortwave impulses over south-central Canada. Low-level convergence should be weak until early evening, with convective coverage appearing isolated northeast of eastern SD. Still, the lobe of steep lapse rates emanating northeast from the central High Plains will support a swath of moderate to large MLCAPE. Any sustained storms along the weak front should pose an isolated threat for severe hail and damaging winds. ...VA Tidewater and far northeast NC... A weak cyclone east of the Outer Banks is progged to drift northwestward towards the NC/VA border area by this afternoon. Low-level flow enhancement to its northwest will promote potential for strong to marginally severe gusts with any sustained convection near the cyclone core. However, the airmass over land should remain thermodynamically limited. Surface winds shifting from the north to northeast will be necessary for the advection of near-70 F surface dew points, supportive of meager surface-based instability. This may only glance the coast later this morning into early afternoon before low-level wind fields subside and the severe risk becomes negligible. ..Grams/Squitieri.. 09/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF NE/CO/KS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into early evening across a portion of the central Great Plains. Large hail, severe gusts, and a tornado or two may occur. ...NE/KS/CO... An elongated, positive-tilt shortwave trough will effectively drift eastward, pivoting across WY, as multiple embedded impulses rotate through it during the period. A confined belt of moderate flow should be centered from the eastern Great Basin to western SD this afternoon. Much of this will lag to the west of the large buoyancy plume from the NE/KS/CO border area northeast to the Upper Midwest. Isolated elevated storms may increase/intensify towards midday across the NE Panhandle. Scattered to eventually widespread surface-based storms are expected through the afternoon, both along the diurnally sharpening front and in the post-frontal environment emanating off the CO Rockies/Front Range. Rather steep mid-level lapse rates will be supportive of large hail. But the modest deep-layer shear along the front and early upscale growth to linear clusters should modulate hail magnitudes. Linear clustering appears most probable over southwest NE, which should support a short-duration uptick in severe wind potential. While most guidance indicates a strengthening low-level jet into early/mid evening, the lack of stronger mid/upper-level winds should foster a waning severe threat after dusk. ...Eastern SD to northeast MN... Mid-level flow will be weak across most of the Upper Midwest, except across northeast MN. This area will remain on the peripheral influence of multiple shortwave impulses over south-central Canada. Low-level convergence should be weak until early evening, with convective coverage appearing isolated northeast of eastern SD. Still, the lobe of steep lapse rates emanating northeast from the central High Plains will support a swath of moderate to large MLCAPE. Any sustained storms along the weak front should pose an isolated threat for severe hail and damaging winds. ...VA Tidewater and far northeast NC... A weak cyclone east of the Outer Banks is progged to drift northwestward towards the NC/VA border area by this afternoon. Low-level flow enhancement to its northwest will promote potential for strong to marginally severe gusts with any sustained convection near the cyclone core. However, the airmass over land should remain thermodynamically limited. Surface winds shifting from the north to northeast will be necessary for the advection of near-70 F surface dew points, supportive of meager surface-based instability. This may only glance the coast later this morning into early afternoon before low-level wind fields subside and the severe risk becomes negligible. ..Grams/Squitieri.. 09/16/2025 Read more

297
ABPZ20 KNHC 160531
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Mon Sep 15 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Mario, located a few hundred miles west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula.

Off the Coast of Southwestern Mexico:
An trough of low pressure located several hundred miles off the
coast of southern Mexico continues to produce a broad area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for additional development of this system, and a
tropical depression is likely to form during the middle to latter
part of this week as it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph
over the central east Pacific.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

Edmonson County was in an emergency burn ban as dry weather intensified rapidly in the region. Burn bans were also in effect for Metcalfe and Warren counties. WNKY-TV (Bowling Green, Ky.), Aug 26, 2025 An open burn ban took effect for Todd County on Tuesday, August 26, as drought persisted with no significant rain chances in the forecast. WHOP-AM (Hopkinsville, Ky.), Aug 26, 2025

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 16 Sep 2025 02:33:51 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 16 Sep 2025 03:22:19 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 16 Sep 2025 02:33:51 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 16 Sep 2025 02:33:51 GMT

Issued at 800 PM PDT Mon Sep 15 2025 261 WTPZ43 KNHC 160234 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132025 800 PM PDT Mon Sep 15 2025 After its strengthening episode earlier today, Mario has begun a weakening trend. There has been a dramatic decrease in the coverage and intensity of the associated deep convection, making Dvorak classifications problematic. The lastest subjective and objective intensity estimates vary substantially, and the advisory intensity is set at a rather uncertain 50 kt. Given the decrease in convection, this may be a generous estimate. Hopefully an upcoming scatterometer pass will provide more information on the strength of the cyclone. There is a fair amount of scatter in the center fixes, and my best estimate for initial motion is 310/11 kt. Mario should continue to move along the western periphery of a mid-level high pressure system centered over northern Mexico for the next couple of days. The official track forecast is just slightly to the right of the previous one and close to the latest corrected consensus model, HCCA, guidance. Mario will be traversing progressively cooler waters for the next couple of days, with the SSTs below the system dropping below 24 deg C by late tomorrow. Moreover, increasingly strong southwesterly vertical wind shear is expected to affect the system for the next 48 hours. The official forecast calls for the system to degenerate into a remnant low in 36 hours, however if the current trend in deep convection persists, this could occur sooner than that. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 21.5N 115.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 22.6N 116.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 17/0000Z 24.0N 118.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 17/1200Z 25.3N 119.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 18/0000Z 26.0N 119.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 18/1200Z 27.2N 119.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 16 Sep 2025 02:33:51 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 16 Sep 2025 02:33:51 GMT

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 16 2025 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 160233 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132025 0300 UTC TUE SEP 16 2025 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 25N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Issued at 800 PM PDT Mon Sep 15 2025 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 160233 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Mario Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132025 800 PM PDT Mon Sep 15 2025 ...MARIO BEGINNING TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.5N 115.0W ABOUT 340 MI...545 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Mario was located near latitude 21.5 North, longitude 115.0 West. Mario is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion with some decrease in forward speed is forecast during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady weakening is forecast, and Mario should become a remnant low by Tuesday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch

...MARIO BEGINNING TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS... As of 8:00 PM PDT Mon Sep 15 the center of Mario was located near 21.5, -115.0 with movement NW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 995 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 16 2025 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 160231 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132025 0300 UTC TUE SEP 16 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 115.0W AT 16/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 15SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 4 M SEAS.... 75NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 115.0W AT 16/0300Z AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 114.6W FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 22.6N 116.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 24.0N 118.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 25.3N 119.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 26.0N 119.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 27.2N 119.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.5N 115.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025 Valid 160100Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN SD/NORTHWEST NE PANHANDLE VICINITY AND FAR NORTHEAST NC... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe gusts remain possible this evening in the western South Dakota and northwest Nebraska Panhandle vicinity. A brief tornado and a severe gust are possible over far northeast North Carolina in the early morning. ...SD/NE vicinity... Scattered high-based convection along the WY/NE/SD border area should continue to pose a near-term threat for sporadic strong to severe gusts as it progresses east-northeast. Nocturnal boundary-layer cooling should yield a rapid weakening in the next couple hours within the mostly meager buoyant airmass. However, a lobe of upper 50s to lower 60s surface dew points across northwest/north-central SD may sustain a marginal severe wind threat in this region through late evening. ...Northeast NC... A weak offshore cyclone is still expected to approach the Outer Banks to Albemarle Sound region by 12Z. Guidance does differ on whether this will actually reach land or remain entirely off the coast. It will depend on the degree of overnight convective development around the cyclone, which most recently has been wobbling to the east. Backing of current northerly surface winds to the northeast will be required to advect around 70 F dew points onto land, necessary for weak surface-based instability. This may occur during the 09-12Z period, coincident with some enlargement to the low-level hodograph. Should this occur, the setup might support a brief tornado and/or a localized severe gust. ..Grams.. 09/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025 Valid 160100Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN SD/NORTHWEST NE PANHANDLE VICINITY AND FAR NORTHEAST NC... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe gusts remain possible this evening in the western South Dakota and northwest Nebraska Panhandle vicinity. A brief tornado and a severe gust are possible over far northeast North Carolina in the early morning. ...SD/NE vicinity... Scattered high-based convection along the WY/NE/SD border area should continue to pose a near-term threat for sporadic strong to severe gusts as it progresses east-northeast. Nocturnal boundary-layer cooling should yield a rapid weakening in the next couple hours within the mostly meager buoyant airmass. However, a lobe of upper 50s to lower 60s surface dew points across northwest/north-central SD may sustain a marginal severe wind threat in this region through late evening. ...Northeast NC... A weak offshore cyclone is still expected to approach the Outer Banks to Albemarle Sound region by 12Z. Guidance does differ on whether this will actually reach land or remain entirely off the coast. It will depend on the degree of overnight convective development around the cyclone, which most recently has been wobbling to the east. Backing of current northerly surface winds to the northeast will be required to advect around 70 F dew points onto land, necessary for weak surface-based instability. This may occur during the 09-12Z period, coincident with some enlargement to the low-level hodograph. Should this occur, the setup might support a brief tornado and/or a localized severe gust. ..Grams.. 09/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025 Valid 160100Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN SD/NORTHWEST NE PANHANDLE VICINITY AND FAR NORTHEAST NC... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe gusts remain possible this evening in the western South Dakota and northwest Nebraska Panhandle vicinity. A brief tornado and a severe gust are possible over far northeast North Carolina in the early morning. ...SD/NE vicinity... Scattered high-based convection along the WY/NE/SD border area should continue to pose a near-term threat for sporadic strong to severe gusts as it progresses east-northeast. Nocturnal boundary-layer cooling should yield a rapid weakening in the next couple hours within the mostly meager buoyant airmass. However, a lobe of upper 50s to lower 60s surface dew points across northwest/north-central SD may sustain a marginal severe wind threat in this region through late evening. ...Northeast NC... A weak offshore cyclone is still expected to approach the Outer Banks to Albemarle Sound region by 12Z. Guidance does differ on whether this will actually reach land or remain entirely off the coast. It will depend on the degree of overnight convective development around the cyclone, which most recently has been wobbling to the east. Backing of current northerly surface winds to the northeast will be required to advect around 70 F dew points onto land, necessary for weak surface-based instability. This may occur during the 09-12Z period, coincident with some enlargement to the low-level hodograph. Should this occur, the setup might support a brief tornado and/or a localized severe gust. ..Grams.. 09/16/2025 Read more