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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...NORTHERN MINNESOTA...MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND COASTAL NC/SC... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind gusts are possible across Wyoming into western South Dakota this afternoon to early evening, as well as portions of the Mid Mississippi Valley. Isolated severe hail and damaging winds are also possible across far northern Minnesota this afternoon. A brief tornado is possible in the northeast North Carolina vicinity in the early morning Tuesday. ...20Z Update... The Marginal Risk in the Mid MS Valley was expanded slightly northward across IA. Diurnal heating/destabilization amid middle/upper 60s dewpoints is yielding moderate-strong surface-based buoyancy along a remnant north-south-oriented surface boundary. Given around 25-30 kt of effective shear, a couple loosely organized storms may become capable of producing strong gusts and marginally severe hail. ..Weinman.. 09/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1132 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025/ ...Wyoming to Black Hills vicinity... A shortwave trough over western Idaho will move east across Wyoming/western South Dakota during the day, as several embedded vorticity maxima contribute regions of enhanced ascent. Steep mid-level lapse rates of 8-9 deg C/km, combined with diurnal heating, will result in MLCAPE of a few hundred J/kg across much of the area. Despite weak buoyancy, the favorably-timed ascent will contribute to thunderstorm development/intensification this afternoon as storms approach northeast Wyoming/western South Dakota. Some hail could occur, and a deep and well-mixed boundary layer will lead to high-based convection capable of isolated strong/damaging gusts through early evening, with intensities diminishing thereafter as nocturnal cooling commences. ...Northeast North Carolina/southeast Virginia... A surface low southeast of Cape Hatteras is forecast to move towards the North Carolina coast through 12z Tuesday, with a belt of stronger low-level flow developing north/northwest of the low. Variability remains regarding the forecast location of the low and strength of low-level winds, however a conditional risk for a tornado would exist late tonight through early Tuesday morning with stronger convective elements, should sufficient low-level hodograph curvature develop as high theta-e air is advected west. ...Far northern Minnesota... Thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon within a northwest-southeast oriented arc from southeast Manitoba across northeast Ontario as a shortwave trough becomes increasingly negatively tilted while lifting northeast. Although development south of the international border is uncertain, some global guidance (and a convection-allowing model or two) suggest isolated development is possible. Moderate buoyancy and effective shear of 35-40 kt over far northern Minnesota suggest a conditional risk for severe wind/hail would exist if/where storm development occurs. ...Missouri/Mid-South.. Near and west/southwest of a residual front, a few strong/locally damaging wind gusts will be possible again this afternoon with pulse-type storms within a weakly-sheared but strongly unstable (MLCAPE of 2500-3000 J/kg) thermodynamic environment. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...NORTHERN MINNESOTA...MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND COASTAL NC/SC... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind gusts are possible across Wyoming into western South Dakota this afternoon to early evening, as well as portions of the Mid Mississippi Valley. Isolated severe hail and damaging winds are also possible across far northern Minnesota this afternoon. A brief tornado is possible in the northeast North Carolina vicinity in the early morning Tuesday. ...20Z Update... The Marginal Risk in the Mid MS Valley was expanded slightly northward across IA. Diurnal heating/destabilization amid middle/upper 60s dewpoints is yielding moderate-strong surface-based buoyancy along a remnant north-south-oriented surface boundary. Given around 25-30 kt of effective shear, a couple loosely organized storms may become capable of producing strong gusts and marginally severe hail. ..Weinman.. 09/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1132 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025/ ...Wyoming to Black Hills vicinity... A shortwave trough over western Idaho will move east across Wyoming/western South Dakota during the day, as several embedded vorticity maxima contribute regions of enhanced ascent. Steep mid-level lapse rates of 8-9 deg C/km, combined with diurnal heating, will result in MLCAPE of a few hundred J/kg across much of the area. Despite weak buoyancy, the favorably-timed ascent will contribute to thunderstorm development/intensification this afternoon as storms approach northeast Wyoming/western South Dakota. Some hail could occur, and a deep and well-mixed boundary layer will lead to high-based convection capable of isolated strong/damaging gusts through early evening, with intensities diminishing thereafter as nocturnal cooling commences. ...Northeast North Carolina/southeast Virginia... A surface low southeast of Cape Hatteras is forecast to move towards the North Carolina coast through 12z Tuesday, with a belt of stronger low-level flow developing north/northwest of the low. Variability remains regarding the forecast location of the low and strength of low-level winds, however a conditional risk for a tornado would exist late tonight through early Tuesday morning with stronger convective elements, should sufficient low-level hodograph curvature develop as high theta-e air is advected west. ...Far northern Minnesota... Thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon within a northwest-southeast oriented arc from southeast Manitoba across northeast Ontario as a shortwave trough becomes increasingly negatively tilted while lifting northeast. Although development south of the international border is uncertain, some global guidance (and a convection-allowing model or two) suggest isolated development is possible. Moderate buoyancy and effective shear of 35-40 kt over far northern Minnesota suggest a conditional risk for severe wind/hail would exist if/where storm development occurs. ...Missouri/Mid-South.. Near and west/southwest of a residual front, a few strong/locally damaging wind gusts will be possible again this afternoon with pulse-type storms within a weakly-sheared but strongly unstable (MLCAPE of 2500-3000 J/kg) thermodynamic environment. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...NORTHERN MINNESOTA...MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND COASTAL NC/SC... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind gusts are possible across Wyoming into western South Dakota this afternoon to early evening, as well as portions of the Mid Mississippi Valley. Isolated severe hail and damaging winds are also possible across far northern Minnesota this afternoon. A brief tornado is possible in the northeast North Carolina vicinity in the early morning Tuesday. ...20Z Update... The Marginal Risk in the Mid MS Valley was expanded slightly northward across IA. Diurnal heating/destabilization amid middle/upper 60s dewpoints is yielding moderate-strong surface-based buoyancy along a remnant north-south-oriented surface boundary. Given around 25-30 kt of effective shear, a couple loosely organized storms may become capable of producing strong gusts and marginally severe hail. ..Weinman.. 09/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1132 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025/ ...Wyoming to Black Hills vicinity... A shortwave trough over western Idaho will move east across Wyoming/western South Dakota during the day, as several embedded vorticity maxima contribute regions of enhanced ascent. Steep mid-level lapse rates of 8-9 deg C/km, combined with diurnal heating, will result in MLCAPE of a few hundred J/kg across much of the area. Despite weak buoyancy, the favorably-timed ascent will contribute to thunderstorm development/intensification this afternoon as storms approach northeast Wyoming/western South Dakota. Some hail could occur, and a deep and well-mixed boundary layer will lead to high-based convection capable of isolated strong/damaging gusts through early evening, with intensities diminishing thereafter as nocturnal cooling commences. ...Northeast North Carolina/southeast Virginia... A surface low southeast of Cape Hatteras is forecast to move towards the North Carolina coast through 12z Tuesday, with a belt of stronger low-level flow developing north/northwest of the low. Variability remains regarding the forecast location of the low and strength of low-level winds, however a conditional risk for a tornado would exist late tonight through early Tuesday morning with stronger convective elements, should sufficient low-level hodograph curvature develop as high theta-e air is advected west. ...Far northern Minnesota... Thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon within a northwest-southeast oriented arc from southeast Manitoba across northeast Ontario as a shortwave trough becomes increasingly negatively tilted while lifting northeast. Although development south of the international border is uncertain, some global guidance (and a convection-allowing model or two) suggest isolated development is possible. Moderate buoyancy and effective shear of 35-40 kt over far northern Minnesota suggest a conditional risk for severe wind/hail would exist if/where storm development occurs. ...Missouri/Mid-South.. Near and west/southwest of a residual front, a few strong/locally damaging wind gusts will be possible again this afternoon with pulse-type storms within a weakly-sheared but strongly unstable (MLCAPE of 2500-3000 J/kg) thermodynamic environment. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...NORTHERN MINNESOTA...MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND COASTAL NC/SC... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind gusts are possible across Wyoming into western South Dakota this afternoon to early evening, as well as portions of the Mid Mississippi Valley. Isolated severe hail and damaging winds are also possible across far northern Minnesota this afternoon. A brief tornado is possible in the northeast North Carolina vicinity in the early morning Tuesday. ...20Z Update... The Marginal Risk in the Mid MS Valley was expanded slightly northward across IA. Diurnal heating/destabilization amid middle/upper 60s dewpoints is yielding moderate-strong surface-based buoyancy along a remnant north-south-oriented surface boundary. Given around 25-30 kt of effective shear, a couple loosely organized storms may become capable of producing strong gusts and marginally severe hail. ..Weinman.. 09/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1132 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025/ ...Wyoming to Black Hills vicinity... A shortwave trough over western Idaho will move east across Wyoming/western South Dakota during the day, as several embedded vorticity maxima contribute regions of enhanced ascent. Steep mid-level lapse rates of 8-9 deg C/km, combined with diurnal heating, will result in MLCAPE of a few hundred J/kg across much of the area. Despite weak buoyancy, the favorably-timed ascent will contribute to thunderstorm development/intensification this afternoon as storms approach northeast Wyoming/western South Dakota. Some hail could occur, and a deep and well-mixed boundary layer will lead to high-based convection capable of isolated strong/damaging gusts through early evening, with intensities diminishing thereafter as nocturnal cooling commences. ...Northeast North Carolina/southeast Virginia... A surface low southeast of Cape Hatteras is forecast to move towards the North Carolina coast through 12z Tuesday, with a belt of stronger low-level flow developing north/northwest of the low. Variability remains regarding the forecast location of the low and strength of low-level winds, however a conditional risk for a tornado would exist late tonight through early Tuesday morning with stronger convective elements, should sufficient low-level hodograph curvature develop as high theta-e air is advected west. ...Far northern Minnesota... Thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon within a northwest-southeast oriented arc from southeast Manitoba across northeast Ontario as a shortwave trough becomes increasingly negatively tilted while lifting northeast. Although development south of the international border is uncertain, some global guidance (and a convection-allowing model or two) suggest isolated development is possible. Moderate buoyancy and effective shear of 35-40 kt over far northern Minnesota suggest a conditional risk for severe wind/hail would exist if/where storm development occurs. ...Missouri/Mid-South.. Near and west/southwest of a residual front, a few strong/locally damaging wind gusts will be possible again this afternoon with pulse-type storms within a weakly-sheared but strongly unstable (MLCAPE of 2500-3000 J/kg) thermodynamic environment. Read more

The fire risk was elevated across the Ozarks, leading fire officials to ask the public to avoid or be especially careful with fire outdoors. The Squires Volunteer Fire Department in Douglas County warned residents via Facebook to be careful burning materials outdoors after a large brush fire on September 11 resulted in two small outbuildings being destroyed by the blaze. Ozarks First (Springfield, Mo.), Sep 15, 2025

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential is low on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough over the central/northern High Plains will make limited progress eastward into the Plains on Wednesday. This feature is expected to broaden and become more disorganized with time. A surface trough/cold front from the central Plains into the southern High Plains will similarly be mostly stationary until later in the period. Mid-level flow in the Plains will generally remain weak with only a modest increase behind the cold front closer to the upper trough. Morning clouds and precipitation are expected to be ongoing in the central Plains and parts of the southern High Plains. Upper 50s to mid 60s F dewpoints will be ahead of the boundary. This will lead to weak to moderate buoyancy. Thunderstorms are likely in the Front Range where low-end moisture and upslope flow overlap. This activity may not be very intense given the buoyancy and uncertain low-level thermodynamics. Thunderstorms in Kansas/Oklahoma will have greater buoyancy, but shear will be more limited. Depending on the position of the front and destabilization, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms could develop in the Raton Mesa vicinity. Marginal northwesterly deep-layer shear could promote a couple of stronger storms given steep lapse rates. However, confidence in a more organized severe threat in the Plains remains low at this time. ..Wendt.. 09/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential is low on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough over the central/northern High Plains will make limited progress eastward into the Plains on Wednesday. This feature is expected to broaden and become more disorganized with time. A surface trough/cold front from the central Plains into the southern High Plains will similarly be mostly stationary until later in the period. Mid-level flow in the Plains will generally remain weak with only a modest increase behind the cold front closer to the upper trough. Morning clouds and precipitation are expected to be ongoing in the central Plains and parts of the southern High Plains. Upper 50s to mid 60s F dewpoints will be ahead of the boundary. This will lead to weak to moderate buoyancy. Thunderstorms are likely in the Front Range where low-end moisture and upslope flow overlap. This activity may not be very intense given the buoyancy and uncertain low-level thermodynamics. Thunderstorms in Kansas/Oklahoma will have greater buoyancy, but shear will be more limited. Depending on the position of the front and destabilization, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms could develop in the Raton Mesa vicinity. Marginal northwesterly deep-layer shear could promote a couple of stronger storms given steep lapse rates. However, confidence in a more organized severe threat in the Plains remains low at this time. ..Wendt.. 09/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential is low on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough over the central/northern High Plains will make limited progress eastward into the Plains on Wednesday. This feature is expected to broaden and become more disorganized with time. A surface trough/cold front from the central Plains into the southern High Plains will similarly be mostly stationary until later in the period. Mid-level flow in the Plains will generally remain weak with only a modest increase behind the cold front closer to the upper trough. Morning clouds and precipitation are expected to be ongoing in the central Plains and parts of the southern High Plains. Upper 50s to mid 60s F dewpoints will be ahead of the boundary. This will lead to weak to moderate buoyancy. Thunderstorms are likely in the Front Range where low-end moisture and upslope flow overlap. This activity may not be very intense given the buoyancy and uncertain low-level thermodynamics. Thunderstorms in Kansas/Oklahoma will have greater buoyancy, but shear will be more limited. Depending on the position of the front and destabilization, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms could develop in the Raton Mesa vicinity. Marginal northwesterly deep-layer shear could promote a couple of stronger storms given steep lapse rates. However, confidence in a more organized severe threat in the Plains remains low at this time. ..Wendt.. 09/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential is low on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough over the central/northern High Plains will make limited progress eastward into the Plains on Wednesday. This feature is expected to broaden and become more disorganized with time. A surface trough/cold front from the central Plains into the southern High Plains will similarly be mostly stationary until later in the period. Mid-level flow in the Plains will generally remain weak with only a modest increase behind the cold front closer to the upper trough. Morning clouds and precipitation are expected to be ongoing in the central Plains and parts of the southern High Plains. Upper 50s to mid 60s F dewpoints will be ahead of the boundary. This will lead to weak to moderate buoyancy. Thunderstorms are likely in the Front Range where low-end moisture and upslope flow overlap. This activity may not be very intense given the buoyancy and uncertain low-level thermodynamics. Thunderstorms in Kansas/Oklahoma will have greater buoyancy, but shear will be more limited. Depending on the position of the front and destabilization, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms could develop in the Raton Mesa vicinity. Marginal northwesterly deep-layer shear could promote a couple of stronger storms given steep lapse rates. However, confidence in a more organized severe threat in the Plains remains low at this time. ..Wendt.. 09/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential is low on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough over the central/northern High Plains will make limited progress eastward into the Plains on Wednesday. This feature is expected to broaden and become more disorganized with time. A surface trough/cold front from the central Plains into the southern High Plains will similarly be mostly stationary until later in the period. Mid-level flow in the Plains will generally remain weak with only a modest increase behind the cold front closer to the upper trough. Morning clouds and precipitation are expected to be ongoing in the central Plains and parts of the southern High Plains. Upper 50s to mid 60s F dewpoints will be ahead of the boundary. This will lead to weak to moderate buoyancy. Thunderstorms are likely in the Front Range where low-end moisture and upslope flow overlap. This activity may not be very intense given the buoyancy and uncertain low-level thermodynamics. Thunderstorms in Kansas/Oklahoma will have greater buoyancy, but shear will be more limited. Depending on the position of the front and destabilization, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms could develop in the Raton Mesa vicinity. Marginal northwesterly deep-layer shear could promote a couple of stronger storms given steep lapse rates. However, confidence in a more organized severe threat in the Plains remains low at this time. ..Wendt.. 09/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential is low on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough over the central/northern High Plains will make limited progress eastward into the Plains on Wednesday. This feature is expected to broaden and become more disorganized with time. A surface trough/cold front from the central Plains into the southern High Plains will similarly be mostly stationary until later in the period. Mid-level flow in the Plains will generally remain weak with only a modest increase behind the cold front closer to the upper trough. Morning clouds and precipitation are expected to be ongoing in the central Plains and parts of the southern High Plains. Upper 50s to mid 60s F dewpoints will be ahead of the boundary. This will lead to weak to moderate buoyancy. Thunderstorms are likely in the Front Range where low-end moisture and upslope flow overlap. This activity may not be very intense given the buoyancy and uncertain low-level thermodynamics. Thunderstorms in Kansas/Oklahoma will have greater buoyancy, but shear will be more limited. Depending on the position of the front and destabilization, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms could develop in the Raton Mesa vicinity. Marginal northwesterly deep-layer shear could promote a couple of stronger storms given steep lapse rates. However, confidence in a more organized severe threat in the Plains remains low at this time. ..Wendt.. 09/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential is low on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough over the central/northern High Plains will make limited progress eastward into the Plains on Wednesday. This feature is expected to broaden and become more disorganized with time. A surface trough/cold front from the central Plains into the southern High Plains will similarly be mostly stationary until later in the period. Mid-level flow in the Plains will generally remain weak with only a modest increase behind the cold front closer to the upper trough. Morning clouds and precipitation are expected to be ongoing in the central Plains and parts of the southern High Plains. Upper 50s to mid 60s F dewpoints will be ahead of the boundary. This will lead to weak to moderate buoyancy. Thunderstorms are likely in the Front Range where low-end moisture and upslope flow overlap. This activity may not be very intense given the buoyancy and uncertain low-level thermodynamics. Thunderstorms in Kansas/Oklahoma will have greater buoyancy, but shear will be more limited. Depending on the position of the front and destabilization, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms could develop in the Raton Mesa vicinity. Marginal northwesterly deep-layer shear could promote a couple of stronger storms given steep lapse rates. However, confidence in a more organized severe threat in the Plains remains low at this time. ..Wendt.. 09/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential is low on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough over the central/northern High Plains will make limited progress eastward into the Plains on Wednesday. This feature is expected to broaden and become more disorganized with time. A surface trough/cold front from the central Plains into the southern High Plains will similarly be mostly stationary until later in the period. Mid-level flow in the Plains will generally remain weak with only a modest increase behind the cold front closer to the upper trough. Morning clouds and precipitation are expected to be ongoing in the central Plains and parts of the southern High Plains. Upper 50s to mid 60s F dewpoints will be ahead of the boundary. This will lead to weak to moderate buoyancy. Thunderstorms are likely in the Front Range where low-end moisture and upslope flow overlap. This activity may not be very intense given the buoyancy and uncertain low-level thermodynamics. Thunderstorms in Kansas/Oklahoma will have greater buoyancy, but shear will be more limited. Depending on the position of the front and destabilization, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms could develop in the Raton Mesa vicinity. Marginal northwesterly deep-layer shear could promote a couple of stronger storms given steep lapse rates. However, confidence in a more organized severe threat in the Plains remains low at this time. ..Wendt.. 09/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential is low on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough over the central/northern High Plains will make limited progress eastward into the Plains on Wednesday. This feature is expected to broaden and become more disorganized with time. A surface trough/cold front from the central Plains into the southern High Plains will similarly be mostly stationary until later in the period. Mid-level flow in the Plains will generally remain weak with only a modest increase behind the cold front closer to the upper trough. Morning clouds and precipitation are expected to be ongoing in the central Plains and parts of the southern High Plains. Upper 50s to mid 60s F dewpoints will be ahead of the boundary. This will lead to weak to moderate buoyancy. Thunderstorms are likely in the Front Range where low-end moisture and upslope flow overlap. This activity may not be very intense given the buoyancy and uncertain low-level thermodynamics. Thunderstorms in Kansas/Oklahoma will have greater buoyancy, but shear will be more limited. Depending on the position of the front and destabilization, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms could develop in the Raton Mesa vicinity. Marginal northwesterly deep-layer shear could promote a couple of stronger storms given steep lapse rates. However, confidence in a more organized severe threat in the Plains remains low at this time. ..Wendt.. 09/15/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Afternoon Update... No changes, periodic offshore flow remains likely over parts of the Northwest Coast D2/Tuesday morning and early afternoon. Winds should weaken and return to onshore into D3/Wednesday keeping fire-weather concerns localized at best. Otherwise, dry conditions will prevail over the Northeast and Midwest, but winds will remain light. This should keep fire-weather concerns low, see the prior outlook. ..Lyons.. 09/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the Plains states tomorrow (Tuesday), resulting in widespread surface high pressure overspreading the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies. Mostly quiescent fire weather conditions are expected for much of the Interior West. One possible exception may be the Pacific Northwest coastline, where modestly dry offshore flow is expected. Despite the offshore flow, the relatively poor fuel receptiveness to wildfire spread west of the Cascades, and the marginal nature of the expected dry/breezy conditions, precludes Elevated highlights this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Afternoon Update... No changes, periodic offshore flow remains likely over parts of the Northwest Coast D2/Tuesday morning and early afternoon. Winds should weaken and return to onshore into D3/Wednesday keeping fire-weather concerns localized at best. Otherwise, dry conditions will prevail over the Northeast and Midwest, but winds will remain light. This should keep fire-weather concerns low, see the prior outlook. ..Lyons.. 09/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the Plains states tomorrow (Tuesday), resulting in widespread surface high pressure overspreading the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies. Mostly quiescent fire weather conditions are expected for much of the Interior West. One possible exception may be the Pacific Northwest coastline, where modestly dry offshore flow is expected. Despite the offshore flow, the relatively poor fuel receptiveness to wildfire spread west of the Cascades, and the marginal nature of the expected dry/breezy conditions, precludes Elevated highlights this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Afternoon Update... No changes, periodic offshore flow remains likely over parts of the Northwest Coast D2/Tuesday morning and early afternoon. Winds should weaken and return to onshore into D3/Wednesday keeping fire-weather concerns localized at best. Otherwise, dry conditions will prevail over the Northeast and Midwest, but winds will remain light. This should keep fire-weather concerns low, see the prior outlook. ..Lyons.. 09/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the Plains states tomorrow (Tuesday), resulting in widespread surface high pressure overspreading the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies. Mostly quiescent fire weather conditions are expected for much of the Interior West. One possible exception may be the Pacific Northwest coastline, where modestly dry offshore flow is expected. Despite the offshore flow, the relatively poor fuel receptiveness to wildfire spread west of the Cascades, and the marginal nature of the expected dry/breezy conditions, precludes Elevated highlights this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Afternoon Update... No changes, periodic offshore flow remains likely over parts of the Northwest Coast D2/Tuesday morning and early afternoon. Winds should weaken and return to onshore into D3/Wednesday keeping fire-weather concerns localized at best. Otherwise, dry conditions will prevail over the Northeast and Midwest, but winds will remain light. This should keep fire-weather concerns low, see the prior outlook. ..Lyons.. 09/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the Plains states tomorrow (Tuesday), resulting in widespread surface high pressure overspreading the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies. Mostly quiescent fire weather conditions are expected for much of the Interior West. One possible exception may be the Pacific Northwest coastline, where modestly dry offshore flow is expected. Despite the offshore flow, the relatively poor fuel receptiveness to wildfire spread west of the Cascades, and the marginal nature of the expected dry/breezy conditions, precludes Elevated highlights this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Afternoon Update... No changes, periodic offshore flow remains likely over parts of the Northwest Coast D2/Tuesday morning and early afternoon. Winds should weaken and return to onshore into D3/Wednesday keeping fire-weather concerns localized at best. Otherwise, dry conditions will prevail over the Northeast and Midwest, but winds will remain light. This should keep fire-weather concerns low, see the prior outlook. ..Lyons.. 09/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the Plains states tomorrow (Tuesday), resulting in widespread surface high pressure overspreading the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies. Mostly quiescent fire weather conditions are expected for much of the Interior West. One possible exception may be the Pacific Northwest coastline, where modestly dry offshore flow is expected. Despite the offshore flow, the relatively poor fuel receptiveness to wildfire spread west of the Cascades, and the marginal nature of the expected dry/breezy conditions, precludes Elevated highlights this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Afternoon Update... No changes, periodic offshore flow remains likely over parts of the Northwest Coast D2/Tuesday morning and early afternoon. Winds should weaken and return to onshore into D3/Wednesday keeping fire-weather concerns localized at best. Otherwise, dry conditions will prevail over the Northeast and Midwest, but winds will remain light. This should keep fire-weather concerns low, see the prior outlook. ..Lyons.. 09/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the Plains states tomorrow (Tuesday), resulting in widespread surface high pressure overspreading the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies. Mostly quiescent fire weather conditions are expected for much of the Interior West. One possible exception may be the Pacific Northwest coastline, where modestly dry offshore flow is expected. Despite the offshore flow, the relatively poor fuel receptiveness to wildfire spread west of the Cascades, and the marginal nature of the expected dry/breezy conditions, precludes Elevated highlights this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more