Aggregator

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 151130
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Mon Sep 15 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Mario, located a few hundred miles south-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula.

Off the Coast of Southwestern Mexico:
An elongated trough of low pressure located several hundred miles
off the coast of southern Mexico is producing disorganized showers
and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could
form by the middle to latter part of this week as it moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the central east Pacific.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Mario are issued under WMO
header WTPZ33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP3.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Mario are issued under WMO
header WTPZ23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP3.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 15 Sep 2025 08:49:46 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 15 Sep 2025 09:22:14 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 15 Sep 2025 08:49:46 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 15 Sep 2025 08:49:46 GMT

Issued at 200 AM MST Mon Sep 15 2025 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 150845 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132025 200 AM MST Mon Sep 15 2025 The satellite presentation of Mario has improved since the previous advisory, with a burst of deep convection and very cold cloud tops persisting over the low-level center. Upper-level outflow appears well established in all quadrants, and more defined curved banding is developing on the northern side of the convective burst. Subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB were 3.0/45 kt and 2.5/35 kt, respectively, while objective estimates from UW-CIMSS have ranged from 40 to 60 kt and have been trending upward. A blend of these data, along with the improved satellite appearance, supports raising the initial intensity to 50 kt for this advisory. Mario is moving west-northwestward, or 295 degrees, at 10 kt. A gradual turn toward the northwest is expected during the next couple of days as the cyclone moves between a mid-level ridge over northern Mexico and a mid-level low to its northwest. Forward speed should decrease after 48 h as Mario weakens and becomes more influenced by the low-level flow. The forecast track is close to the previous one through 24 h, then shifts slightly eastward thereafter to better match the consensus guidance. The track is closest to the GDMI aid, which lies between the consensus and the prior forecast. Mario will remain in a moist, low-shear environment over warm waters for the next 12 h, which should allow for some additional strengthening. Thereafter, the cyclone will move near the 26C isotherm and encounter increasing west-southwesterly vertical wind shear, initiating a weakening trend. Steady weakening is then expected as Mario moves over cooler waters and into stronger shear. The cyclone is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low by 48 h, with dissipation likely by 96 h. The official intensity forecast is near the upper end of the guidance through 24 h, then trends toward the consensus thereafter. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 19.4N 112.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 15/1800Z 20.1N 113.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 16/0600Z 21.4N 115.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 16/1800Z 22.7N 117.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 17/0600Z 24.0N 118.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 17/1800Z 25.2N 120.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 18/0600Z 26.0N 120.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Jelsema (CPHC)

Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 15 2025 959 FOPZ13 KNHC 150845 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132025 0900 UTC MON SEP 15 2025 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 115W 34 3 34(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) 20N 115W 50 X 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 8(13) X(13) X(13) $$ FORECASTER JELSEMA (CPHC)

Issued at 200 AM MST Mon Sep 15 2025 786 WTPZ33 KNHC 150844 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Mario Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132025 200 AM MST Mon Sep 15 2025 ...MARIO STRENGTHENS AS IT HEADS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AWAY FROM SOCORRO ISLAND... SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.4N 112.3W ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM WNW OF SOCORRO ISLAND ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM MST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Mario was located near latitude 19.4 North, longitude 112.3 West. Mario is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). This general motion with a gradual turn toward the northwest is expected over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is expected today, with steady weakening beginning by late tonight and continuing on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Jelsema (CPHC)

...MARIO STRENGTHENS AS IT HEADS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AWAY FROM SOCORRO ISLAND... As of 2:00 AM MST Mon Sep 15 the center of Mario was located near 19.4, -112.3 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 995 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 15 2025 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 150844 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132025 0900 UTC MON SEP 15 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 112.3W AT 15/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 4 M SEAS.... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 112.3W AT 15/0900Z AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 111.8W FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 20.1N 113.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 21.4N 115.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 22.7N 117.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 24.0N 118.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 25.2N 120.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 26.0N 120.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.4N 112.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z $$ FORECASTER JELSEMA (CPHC)

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0306 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025 Valid 181200Z - 231200Z ...DISCUSSION... An upper low/shortwave trough will persist over the north-central U.S. for much of the period. This system is not forecast to deepen, resulting in little surface cyclogenesis, with mainly weak surface troughing persisting over the Plains. Southerly low-level flow will maintain a seasonally moist airmass, and periods of showers and thunderstorms are expected each day across parts of the Plains to the MS Valley. Modest vertical shear and airmass modification from daily rounds of convection will likely limit overall severe potential. Medium range guidance suggests by late in the period, around Day 8/Mon, a stronger surface cold front may sweep across portions of the Plains as a deepening, more progressive upper trough moves from the Rockies into the Plains. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0306 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025 Valid 181200Z - 231200Z ...DISCUSSION... An upper low/shortwave trough will persist over the north-central U.S. for much of the period. This system is not forecast to deepen, resulting in little surface cyclogenesis, with mainly weak surface troughing persisting over the Plains. Southerly low-level flow will maintain a seasonally moist airmass, and periods of showers and thunderstorms are expected each day across parts of the Plains to the MS Valley. Modest vertical shear and airmass modification from daily rounds of convection will likely limit overall severe potential. Medium range guidance suggests by late in the period, around Day 8/Mon, a stronger surface cold front may sweep across portions of the Plains as a deepening, more progressive upper trough moves from the Rockies into the Plains. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0306 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025 Valid 181200Z - 231200Z ...DISCUSSION... An upper low/shortwave trough will persist over the north-central U.S. for much of the period. This system is not forecast to deepen, resulting in little surface cyclogenesis, with mainly weak surface troughing persisting over the Plains. Southerly low-level flow will maintain a seasonally moist airmass, and periods of showers and thunderstorms are expected each day across parts of the Plains to the MS Valley. Modest vertical shear and airmass modification from daily rounds of convection will likely limit overall severe potential. Medium range guidance suggests by late in the period, around Day 8/Mon, a stronger surface cold front may sweep across portions of the Plains as a deepening, more progressive upper trough moves from the Rockies into the Plains. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0306 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025 Valid 181200Z - 231200Z ...DISCUSSION... An upper low/shortwave trough will persist over the north-central U.S. for much of the period. This system is not forecast to deepen, resulting in little surface cyclogenesis, with mainly weak surface troughing persisting over the Plains. Southerly low-level flow will maintain a seasonally moist airmass, and periods of showers and thunderstorms are expected each day across parts of the Plains to the MS Valley. Modest vertical shear and airmass modification from daily rounds of convection will likely limit overall severe potential. Medium range guidance suggests by late in the period, around Day 8/Mon, a stronger surface cold front may sweep across portions of the Plains as a deepening, more progressive upper trough moves from the Rockies into the Plains. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential is low on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A positive-tilt upper shortwave trough over the northern/central High Plains Wednesday morning will meander eastward as a pair of upper lows develop in the vicinity of NE and eastern MT. Deep-layer flow is expected to remain weak over the Plains, limiting vertical shear. However, upper 50s to mid 60s F dewpoints ahead of a weakening/stalled surface front will remain over eastern portions of the Great Plains into the Mid-MO Valley. This will support pockets of weak to moderate destabilization where stronger heating occurs. Morning clouds and ongoing showers/thunderstorms could be in place across portions of the Plains Wednesday morning, resulting in uncertainty in where better destabilization may occur. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms appear likely across parts of OK/KS northward through the Mid-MO Valley vicinity. However, nebulous forcing and weak shear are likely to limit severe potential. ..Leitman.. 09/15/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential is low on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A positive-tilt upper shortwave trough over the northern/central High Plains Wednesday morning will meander eastward as a pair of upper lows develop in the vicinity of NE and eastern MT. Deep-layer flow is expected to remain weak over the Plains, limiting vertical shear. However, upper 50s to mid 60s F dewpoints ahead of a weakening/stalled surface front will remain over eastern portions of the Great Plains into the Mid-MO Valley. This will support pockets of weak to moderate destabilization where stronger heating occurs. Morning clouds and ongoing showers/thunderstorms could be in place across portions of the Plains Wednesday morning, resulting in uncertainty in where better destabilization may occur. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms appear likely across parts of OK/KS northward through the Mid-MO Valley vicinity. However, nebulous forcing and weak shear are likely to limit severe potential. ..Leitman.. 09/15/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential is low on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A positive-tilt upper shortwave trough over the northern/central High Plains Wednesday morning will meander eastward as a pair of upper lows develop in the vicinity of NE and eastern MT. Deep-layer flow is expected to remain weak over the Plains, limiting vertical shear. However, upper 50s to mid 60s F dewpoints ahead of a weakening/stalled surface front will remain over eastern portions of the Great Plains into the Mid-MO Valley. This will support pockets of weak to moderate destabilization where stronger heating occurs. Morning clouds and ongoing showers/thunderstorms could be in place across portions of the Plains Wednesday morning, resulting in uncertainty in where better destabilization may occur. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms appear likely across parts of OK/KS northward through the Mid-MO Valley vicinity. However, nebulous forcing and weak shear are likely to limit severe potential. ..Leitman.. 09/15/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the Plains states tomorrow (Tuesday), resulting in widespread surface high pressure overspreading the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies. Mostly quiescent fire weather conditions are expected for much of the Interior West. One possible exception may be the Pacific Northwest coastline, where modestly dry offshore flow is expected. Despite the offshore flow, the relatively poor fuel receptiveness to wildfire spread west of the Cascades, and the marginal nature of the expected dry/breezy conditions, precludes Elevated highlights this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 09/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the Plains states tomorrow (Tuesday), resulting in widespread surface high pressure overspreading the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies. Mostly quiescent fire weather conditions are expected for much of the Interior West. One possible exception may be the Pacific Northwest coastline, where modestly dry offshore flow is expected. Despite the offshore flow, the relatively poor fuel receptiveness to wildfire spread west of the Cascades, and the marginal nature of the expected dry/breezy conditions, precludes Elevated highlights this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 09/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the Plains states tomorrow (Tuesday), resulting in widespread surface high pressure overspreading the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies. Mostly quiescent fire weather conditions are expected for much of the Interior West. One possible exception may be the Pacific Northwest coastline, where modestly dry offshore flow is expected. Despite the offshore flow, the relatively poor fuel receptiveness to wildfire spread west of the Cascades, and the marginal nature of the expected dry/breezy conditions, precludes Elevated highlights this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 09/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will become situated over the northern Rockies today, promoting mainly quiescent fire weather conditions across the western CONUS. Ahead of the upper trough, thunderstorms may develop over the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains. Some of these storms may be fast moving and high based, accompanied by erratic wind gusts. Nonetheless, fuels are at best marginally receptive to wildfire spread, with no fire weather highlights introduced this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 09/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will become situated over the northern Rockies today, promoting mainly quiescent fire weather conditions across the western CONUS. Ahead of the upper trough, thunderstorms may develop over the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains. Some of these storms may be fast moving and high based, accompanied by erratic wind gusts. Nonetheless, fuels are at best marginally receptive to wildfire spread, with no fire weather highlights introduced this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 09/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more