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SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential is low on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A positive-tilt upper shortwave trough over the northern/central High Plains Wednesday morning will meander eastward as a pair of upper lows develop in the vicinity of NE and eastern MT. Deep-layer flow is expected to remain weak over the Plains, limiting vertical shear. However, upper 50s to mid 60s F dewpoints ahead of a weakening/stalled surface front will remain over eastern portions of the Great Plains into the Mid-MO Valley. This will support pockets of weak to moderate destabilization where stronger heating occurs. Morning clouds and ongoing showers/thunderstorms could be in place across portions of the Plains Wednesday morning, resulting in uncertainty in where better destabilization may occur. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms appear likely across parts of OK/KS northward through the Mid-MO Valley vicinity. However, nebulous forcing and weak shear are likely to limit severe potential. ..Leitman.. 09/15/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential is low on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A positive-tilt upper shortwave trough over the northern/central High Plains Wednesday morning will meander eastward as a pair of upper lows develop in the vicinity of NE and eastern MT. Deep-layer flow is expected to remain weak over the Plains, limiting vertical shear. However, upper 50s to mid 60s F dewpoints ahead of a weakening/stalled surface front will remain over eastern portions of the Great Plains into the Mid-MO Valley. This will support pockets of weak to moderate destabilization where stronger heating occurs. Morning clouds and ongoing showers/thunderstorms could be in place across portions of the Plains Wednesday morning, resulting in uncertainty in where better destabilization may occur. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms appear likely across parts of OK/KS northward through the Mid-MO Valley vicinity. However, nebulous forcing and weak shear are likely to limit severe potential. ..Leitman.. 09/15/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the Plains states tomorrow (Tuesday), resulting in widespread surface high pressure overspreading the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies. Mostly quiescent fire weather conditions are expected for much of the Interior West. One possible exception may be the Pacific Northwest coastline, where modestly dry offshore flow is expected. Despite the offshore flow, the relatively poor fuel receptiveness to wildfire spread west of the Cascades, and the marginal nature of the expected dry/breezy conditions, precludes Elevated highlights this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 09/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the Plains states tomorrow (Tuesday), resulting in widespread surface high pressure overspreading the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies. Mostly quiescent fire weather conditions are expected for much of the Interior West. One possible exception may be the Pacific Northwest coastline, where modestly dry offshore flow is expected. Despite the offshore flow, the relatively poor fuel receptiveness to wildfire spread west of the Cascades, and the marginal nature of the expected dry/breezy conditions, precludes Elevated highlights this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 09/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the Plains states tomorrow (Tuesday), resulting in widespread surface high pressure overspreading the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies. Mostly quiescent fire weather conditions are expected for much of the Interior West. One possible exception may be the Pacific Northwest coastline, where modestly dry offshore flow is expected. Despite the offshore flow, the relatively poor fuel receptiveness to wildfire spread west of the Cascades, and the marginal nature of the expected dry/breezy conditions, precludes Elevated highlights this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 09/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will become situated over the northern Rockies today, promoting mainly quiescent fire weather conditions across the western CONUS. Ahead of the upper trough, thunderstorms may develop over the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains. Some of these storms may be fast moving and high based, accompanied by erratic wind gusts. Nonetheless, fuels are at best marginally receptive to wildfire spread, with no fire weather highlights introduced this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 09/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will become situated over the northern Rockies today, promoting mainly quiescent fire weather conditions across the western CONUS. Ahead of the upper trough, thunderstorms may develop over the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains. Some of these storms may be fast moving and high based, accompanied by erratic wind gusts. Nonetheless, fuels are at best marginally receptive to wildfire spread, with no fire weather highlights introduced this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 09/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will become situated over the northern Rockies today, promoting mainly quiescent fire weather conditions across the western CONUS. Ahead of the upper trough, thunderstorms may develop over the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains. Some of these storms may be fast moving and high based, accompanied by erratic wind gusts. Nonetheless, fuels are at best marginally receptive to wildfire spread, with no fire weather highlights introduced this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 09/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will become situated over the northern Rockies today, promoting mainly quiescent fire weather conditions across the western CONUS. Ahead of the upper trough, thunderstorms may develop over the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains. Some of these storms may be fast moving and high based, accompanied by erratic wind gusts. Nonetheless, fuels are at best marginally receptive to wildfire spread, with no fire weather highlights introduced this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 09/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday across portions of the central Plains. ...Central/Southern Plains... A positively tilted upper shortwave trough will slowly develop east from the northern Great Basin/northern Rockies to the northern/central High Plains on Tuesday. Deep-layer flow is expected to remain fairly weak, limiting stronger vertical shear. At the surface, a weak cold front will extend from northern MN into western/central NE by 00z. A secondary weak surface trough will extend southward across eastern CO into the southern High Plains. Ahead of these surface features, upper 50s to mid 60s F dewpoints will be in place beneath a plume of steep midlevel lapse rates. This will allow for moderate destabilization across a mostly uncapped warm sector. Large-scale ascent associated with the approaching upper trough will likely be ill-timed with peak heating, and may not arrive across the region until after 00z. Nevertheless, low-level frontal convergence may support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development near the surface cold front by late afternoon. Given boundary-parallel deep-layer flow, this activity may quickly become elevated/undercut by the surface front. Nevertheless, sufficient instability, steep low-level lapse rates and at least modest effective shear (less than 25 kt) should support an isolated/marginal severe wind/hail risk from portions of northeast CO/northwest KS into western/central NE and south-central SD through the evening. Additional storms may develop near the weak surface trough from southeastern CO/eastern NM and spread east into adjacent portions of southwest KS and the OK/TX Panhandles. Instability and shear are expected to be very modest across these areas. However, a deeply mixed boundary layer/steep low-level lapse rates could support locally gusty winds with this activity. ...NC/VA Tidewater... A coastal low will be located near the Outer Banks Tuesday morning. Low-level flow will be enhanced near/north of the low center, with some weak instability near the coast. Locally strong gusts may accompany showers and thunderstorms for a few hours during the morning. As the low drifts north through the day, more substantial instability is expected to remain offshore. ..Leitman.. 09/15/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday across portions of the central Plains. ...Central/Southern Plains... A positively tilted upper shortwave trough will slowly develop east from the northern Great Basin/northern Rockies to the northern/central High Plains on Tuesday. Deep-layer flow is expected to remain fairly weak, limiting stronger vertical shear. At the surface, a weak cold front will extend from northern MN into western/central NE by 00z. A secondary weak surface trough will extend southward across eastern CO into the southern High Plains. Ahead of these surface features, upper 50s to mid 60s F dewpoints will be in place beneath a plume of steep midlevel lapse rates. This will allow for moderate destabilization across a mostly uncapped warm sector. Large-scale ascent associated with the approaching upper trough will likely be ill-timed with peak heating, and may not arrive across the region until after 00z. Nevertheless, low-level frontal convergence may support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development near the surface cold front by late afternoon. Given boundary-parallel deep-layer flow, this activity may quickly become elevated/undercut by the surface front. Nevertheless, sufficient instability, steep low-level lapse rates and at least modest effective shear (less than 25 kt) should support an isolated/marginal severe wind/hail risk from portions of northeast CO/northwest KS into western/central NE and south-central SD through the evening. Additional storms may develop near the weak surface trough from southeastern CO/eastern NM and spread east into adjacent portions of southwest KS and the OK/TX Panhandles. Instability and shear are expected to be very modest across these areas. However, a deeply mixed boundary layer/steep low-level lapse rates could support locally gusty winds with this activity. ...NC/VA Tidewater... A coastal low will be located near the Outer Banks Tuesday morning. Low-level flow will be enhanced near/north of the low center, with some weak instability near the coast. Locally strong gusts may accompany showers and thunderstorms for a few hours during the morning. As the low drifts north through the day, more substantial instability is expected to remain offshore. ..Leitman.. 09/15/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday across portions of the central Plains. ...Central/Southern Plains... A positively tilted upper shortwave trough will slowly develop east from the northern Great Basin/northern Rockies to the northern/central High Plains on Tuesday. Deep-layer flow is expected to remain fairly weak, limiting stronger vertical shear. At the surface, a weak cold front will extend from northern MN into western/central NE by 00z. A secondary weak surface trough will extend southward across eastern CO into the southern High Plains. Ahead of these surface features, upper 50s to mid 60s F dewpoints will be in place beneath a plume of steep midlevel lapse rates. This will allow for moderate destabilization across a mostly uncapped warm sector. Large-scale ascent associated with the approaching upper trough will likely be ill-timed with peak heating, and may not arrive across the region until after 00z. Nevertheless, low-level frontal convergence may support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development near the surface cold front by late afternoon. Given boundary-parallel deep-layer flow, this activity may quickly become elevated/undercut by the surface front. Nevertheless, sufficient instability, steep low-level lapse rates and at least modest effective shear (less than 25 kt) should support an isolated/marginal severe wind/hail risk from portions of northeast CO/northwest KS into western/central NE and south-central SD through the evening. Additional storms may develop near the weak surface trough from southeastern CO/eastern NM and spread east into adjacent portions of southwest KS and the OK/TX Panhandles. Instability and shear are expected to be very modest across these areas. However, a deeply mixed boundary layer/steep low-level lapse rates could support locally gusty winds with this activity. ...NC/VA Tidewater... A coastal low will be located near the Outer Banks Tuesday morning. Low-level flow will be enhanced near/north of the low center, with some weak instability near the coast. Locally strong gusts may accompany showers and thunderstorms for a few hours during the morning. As the low drifts north through the day, more substantial instability is expected to remain offshore. ..Leitman.. 09/15/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday across portions of the central Plains. ...Central/Southern Plains... A positively tilted upper shortwave trough will slowly develop east from the northern Great Basin/northern Rockies to the northern/central High Plains on Tuesday. Deep-layer flow is expected to remain fairly weak, limiting stronger vertical shear. At the surface, a weak cold front will extend from northern MN into western/central NE by 00z. A secondary weak surface trough will extend southward across eastern CO into the southern High Plains. Ahead of these surface features, upper 50s to mid 60s F dewpoints will be in place beneath a plume of steep midlevel lapse rates. This will allow for moderate destabilization across a mostly uncapped warm sector. Large-scale ascent associated with the approaching upper trough will likely be ill-timed with peak heating, and may not arrive across the region until after 00z. Nevertheless, low-level frontal convergence may support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development near the surface cold front by late afternoon. Given boundary-parallel deep-layer flow, this activity may quickly become elevated/undercut by the surface front. Nevertheless, sufficient instability, steep low-level lapse rates and at least modest effective shear (less than 25 kt) should support an isolated/marginal severe wind/hail risk from portions of northeast CO/northwest KS into western/central NE and south-central SD through the evening. Additional storms may develop near the weak surface trough from southeastern CO/eastern NM and spread east into adjacent portions of southwest KS and the OK/TX Panhandles. Instability and shear are expected to be very modest across these areas. However, a deeply mixed boundary layer/steep low-level lapse rates could support locally gusty winds with this activity. ...NC/VA Tidewater... A coastal low will be located near the Outer Banks Tuesday morning. Low-level flow will be enhanced near/north of the low center, with some weak instability near the coast. Locally strong gusts may accompany showers and thunderstorms for a few hours during the morning. As the low drifts north through the day, more substantial instability is expected to remain offshore. ..Leitman.. 09/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN WY TO WESTERN SD...NORTHEAST NC...AND FAR NORTHERN MN... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe gusts are possible across Wyoming into western South Dakota this afternoon to early evening. Isolated severe hail and damaging wind are possible across far northern Minnesota in the early to mid-afternoon. A brief tornado is possible in the northeast North Carolina vicinity in the early morning Tuesday. ...WY to western SD... A shortwave trough over the Northwest will gradually move east, with multiple embedded vorticity maxima rotating through the base of the trough. The most substantial of which should yield favorably timed large-scale ascent with peak depth of the boundary layer this afternoon. A belt of enhanced 500-mb west-southwesterlies should progress from the ID/UT/WY border area towards the Black Hills during the afternoon and evening. Scattered convection across northwest WY during the late morning to midday will intensify as it spreads across northeast WY to western SD, with more isolated activity developing southward by late afternoon. With meager buoyancy, high-based/lower-topped convection will be conducive to sporadic, outflow-dominated strong/severe gusts. This threat should diminish later in the evening, especially as nocturnal boundary layer cooling accelerates after sunset. ...Northeast NC vicinity... A weak cyclone should approach but likely remain just offshore of the Outer Banks through 12Z Tuesday. A belt of enhanced low-level winds should strengthen to its northwest, although guidance has large spread in amplitude. The more aggressive guidance indicates that high PW air will be advected across the Outer Banks and Albemarle Sound vicinity by early morning Tuesday. Near 70 to low 70s F surface dew points by would provide adequate buoyancy for a conditional tornado threat if low-level hodograph curvature is enlarged. 00Z HREF and experimental CAMs indicate enough support to warrant a low-probability tornado highlight. ...Far northern MN... A conditional threat for a brief severe storm or two is apparent along the international border. The corridor of peak low-level theta-e, characterized by upper 60s to low 70s surface dew points, across northwest MN to northeast IA should pivot east with the gradual northward progression of the negative-tilt shortwave trough over the Dakotas. While CAM guidance varies, consensus suggests isolated afternoon storms should commence in an arc across southeast MB/northwest ON towards the MN border. Despite a meridional deep-layer wind profile, this could be semi-orthogonal to the arc's orientation and would be conductive to mid-level updraft rotation. But whether storms are able to be sustained in the CONUS or remain confined within Canada is uncertain. ...MO/AR vicinity... Within a weakly sheared but amply buoyant airmass, a few strong gusts are possible this afternoon from pulse-type microbursts. ..Grams/Squitieri.. 09/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN WY TO WESTERN SD...NORTHEAST NC...AND FAR NORTHERN MN... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe gusts are possible across Wyoming into western South Dakota this afternoon to early evening. Isolated severe hail and damaging wind are possible across far northern Minnesota in the early to mid-afternoon. A brief tornado is possible in the northeast North Carolina vicinity in the early morning Tuesday. ...WY to western SD... A shortwave trough over the Northwest will gradually move east, with multiple embedded vorticity maxima rotating through the base of the trough. The most substantial of which should yield favorably timed large-scale ascent with peak depth of the boundary layer this afternoon. A belt of enhanced 500-mb west-southwesterlies should progress from the ID/UT/WY border area towards the Black Hills during the afternoon and evening. Scattered convection across northwest WY during the late morning to midday will intensify as it spreads across northeast WY to western SD, with more isolated activity developing southward by late afternoon. With meager buoyancy, high-based/lower-topped convection will be conducive to sporadic, outflow-dominated strong/severe gusts. This threat should diminish later in the evening, especially as nocturnal boundary layer cooling accelerates after sunset. ...Northeast NC vicinity... A weak cyclone should approach but likely remain just offshore of the Outer Banks through 12Z Tuesday. A belt of enhanced low-level winds should strengthen to its northwest, although guidance has large spread in amplitude. The more aggressive guidance indicates that high PW air will be advected across the Outer Banks and Albemarle Sound vicinity by early morning Tuesday. Near 70 to low 70s F surface dew points by would provide adequate buoyancy for a conditional tornado threat if low-level hodograph curvature is enlarged. 00Z HREF and experimental CAMs indicate enough support to warrant a low-probability tornado highlight. ...Far northern MN... A conditional threat for a brief severe storm or two is apparent along the international border. The corridor of peak low-level theta-e, characterized by upper 60s to low 70s surface dew points, across northwest MN to northeast IA should pivot east with the gradual northward progression of the negative-tilt shortwave trough over the Dakotas. While CAM guidance varies, consensus suggests isolated afternoon storms should commence in an arc across southeast MB/northwest ON towards the MN border. Despite a meridional deep-layer wind profile, this could be semi-orthogonal to the arc's orientation and would be conductive to mid-level updraft rotation. But whether storms are able to be sustained in the CONUS or remain confined within Canada is uncertain. ...MO/AR vicinity... Within a weakly sheared but amply buoyant airmass, a few strong gusts are possible this afternoon from pulse-type microbursts. ..Grams/Squitieri.. 09/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN WY TO WESTERN SD...NORTHEAST NC...AND FAR NORTHERN MN... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe gusts are possible across Wyoming into western South Dakota this afternoon to early evening. Isolated severe hail and damaging wind are possible across far northern Minnesota in the early to mid-afternoon. A brief tornado is possible in the northeast North Carolina vicinity in the early morning Tuesday. ...WY to western SD... A shortwave trough over the Northwest will gradually move east, with multiple embedded vorticity maxima rotating through the base of the trough. The most substantial of which should yield favorably timed large-scale ascent with peak depth of the boundary layer this afternoon. A belt of enhanced 500-mb west-southwesterlies should progress from the ID/UT/WY border area towards the Black Hills during the afternoon and evening. Scattered convection across northwest WY during the late morning to midday will intensify as it spreads across northeast WY to western SD, with more isolated activity developing southward by late afternoon. With meager buoyancy, high-based/lower-topped convection will be conducive to sporadic, outflow-dominated strong/severe gusts. This threat should diminish later in the evening, especially as nocturnal boundary layer cooling accelerates after sunset. ...Northeast NC vicinity... A weak cyclone should approach but likely remain just offshore of the Outer Banks through 12Z Tuesday. A belt of enhanced low-level winds should strengthen to its northwest, although guidance has large spread in amplitude. The more aggressive guidance indicates that high PW air will be advected across the Outer Banks and Albemarle Sound vicinity by early morning Tuesday. Near 70 to low 70s F surface dew points by would provide adequate buoyancy for a conditional tornado threat if low-level hodograph curvature is enlarged. 00Z HREF and experimental CAMs indicate enough support to warrant a low-probability tornado highlight. ...Far northern MN... A conditional threat for a brief severe storm or two is apparent along the international border. The corridor of peak low-level theta-e, characterized by upper 60s to low 70s surface dew points, across northwest MN to northeast IA should pivot east with the gradual northward progression of the negative-tilt shortwave trough over the Dakotas. While CAM guidance varies, consensus suggests isolated afternoon storms should commence in an arc across southeast MB/northwest ON towards the MN border. Despite a meridional deep-layer wind profile, this could be semi-orthogonal to the arc's orientation and would be conductive to mid-level updraft rotation. But whether storms are able to be sustained in the CONUS or remain confined within Canada is uncertain. ...MO/AR vicinity... Within a weakly sheared but amply buoyant airmass, a few strong gusts are possible this afternoon from pulse-type microbursts. ..Grams/Squitieri.. 09/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN WY TO WESTERN SD...NORTHEAST NC...AND FAR NORTHERN MN... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe gusts are possible across Wyoming into western South Dakota this afternoon to early evening. Isolated severe hail and damaging wind are possible across far northern Minnesota in the early to mid-afternoon. A brief tornado is possible in the northeast North Carolina vicinity in the early morning Tuesday. ...WY to western SD... A shortwave trough over the Northwest will gradually move east, with multiple embedded vorticity maxima rotating through the base of the trough. The most substantial of which should yield favorably timed large-scale ascent with peak depth of the boundary layer this afternoon. A belt of enhanced 500-mb west-southwesterlies should progress from the ID/UT/WY border area towards the Black Hills during the afternoon and evening. Scattered convection across northwest WY during the late morning to midday will intensify as it spreads across northeast WY to western SD, with more isolated activity developing southward by late afternoon. With meager buoyancy, high-based/lower-topped convection will be conducive to sporadic, outflow-dominated strong/severe gusts. This threat should diminish later in the evening, especially as nocturnal boundary layer cooling accelerates after sunset. ...Northeast NC vicinity... A weak cyclone should approach but likely remain just offshore of the Outer Banks through 12Z Tuesday. A belt of enhanced low-level winds should strengthen to its northwest, although guidance has large spread in amplitude. The more aggressive guidance indicates that high PW air will be advected across the Outer Banks and Albemarle Sound vicinity by early morning Tuesday. Near 70 to low 70s F surface dew points by would provide adequate buoyancy for a conditional tornado threat if low-level hodograph curvature is enlarged. 00Z HREF and experimental CAMs indicate enough support to warrant a low-probability tornado highlight. ...Far northern MN... A conditional threat for a brief severe storm or two is apparent along the international border. The corridor of peak low-level theta-e, characterized by upper 60s to low 70s surface dew points, across northwest MN to northeast IA should pivot east with the gradual northward progression of the negative-tilt shortwave trough over the Dakotas. While CAM guidance varies, consensus suggests isolated afternoon storms should commence in an arc across southeast MB/northwest ON towards the MN border. Despite a meridional deep-layer wind profile, this could be semi-orthogonal to the arc's orientation and would be conductive to mid-level updraft rotation. But whether storms are able to be sustained in the CONUS or remain confined within Canada is uncertain. ...MO/AR vicinity... Within a weakly sheared but amply buoyant airmass, a few strong gusts are possible this afternoon from pulse-type microbursts. ..Grams/Squitieri.. 09/15/2025 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 150527
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sun Sep 14 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Mario, located a few hundred miles south-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula.

Off the Coast of Southwestern Mexico:
An elongated trough of low pressure located several hundred miles
off the coast of southern Mexico is producing disorganized showers
and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
some gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression
could form during the middle to latter part of this week as it moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the central east Pacific.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Mario are issued under WMO
header WTPZ33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP3.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Mario are issued under WMO
header WTPZ23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP3.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema

Dry weather has led some central Illinois counties and communities to ban outdoor burning. Some of these were Coles County, Christian County and the communities of Athens (Menard Co.), Decatur (Macon Co.), Chatham (Sangamon Co.), Sherman (Sangamon Co.), and Windsor (Shelby Co.). WAND-TV (Champaign, Ill.), Sept 12, 2025 Multiple communities, including Witt, Nokomis, Assumption and Taylorville have burn bans due to very dry conditions and little rain in the forecast. WCIA (Champaign, Ill.), Sep 8, 2025

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 15 Sep 2025 02:38:06 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 15 Sep 2025 03:22:16 GMT