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The city of Newport’s reservoirs have reached a critical low point with pumping to resume from the Siletz River. Newport voluntarily suspended pumping from the river on July 29, due to low flows. All non-essential water use was suspended and water conservation was encouraged. The cities of Newport, Toledo and Siletz and the Seal Rock Water District encourage water conservation until the flow of the Siletz River improves. News Lincoln County.com (Newport, Ore.), Sept. 7, 2019 Lincoln County residents were urged to limit their water use because the Siletz River was low. Newport officials stopped pumping water from the Siletz River, but will do so when necessary. Residents of Newport, Toledo and Siletz were asked to curb water use as much as possible. Newport News Times (Ore.), Aug. 6, 2019

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 PM CDT Fri Sep 06 2019 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough -- located over the northern Rockies vicinity Day 1/Saturday morning -- is forecast to move eastward over the northern/central plains through the day. Meanwhile, an upstream negatively tilted mid-level trough and attendant area of enhanced mid-level flow are forecast to move onshore over portions of the western CONUS through the overnight. ...Southern California: Santa Barbara South Coast... Sundowner winds are expected to increase across portions of the Santa Barbara South Coast and adjacent foothills Day 1/Saturday afternoon/evening as northerly low-level flow is enhanced with the aforementioned trough passing over the Pacific Northwest. While sustained surface winds will generally remain around 15-20 mph, strong wind gusts of 25-40 mph are possible (locally 50+ mph in terrain favored areas). Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are expected as these winds overlap areas with minimum RH value around 15-20% (locally below 15%) and receptive fuels for fire spread. Poor RH recoveries may promote elevated fire weather conditions through the overnight and into Day 2/Sunday morning -- especially in areas above 1000 ft where RH values may remain below 20%. ...Pacific Northwest into Nevada... Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage over portions of the Cascades in Oregon/Washington (and perhaps far Northern California) during the late afternoon/evening as ascent associated with the aforementioned negatively tilted trough moves onshore. While a lightning ignition remains possible, thunderstorms should remain mostly wet precluding an isolated dry thunderstorm area. A slightly better chance for a lightning ignition exists across Nevada, where thunderstorms should develop during the afternoon. While storm motions will be relatively fast and precipitable water values generally around 0.75", recent precipitation over the past few days coupled with the expected scattered to widespread coverage precludes an isolated dry thunderstorm area at this time. ..Elliott.. 09/07/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 PM CDT Fri Sep 06 2019 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough -- located over the northern Rockies vicinity Day 1/Saturday morning -- is forecast to move eastward over the northern/central plains through the day. Meanwhile, an upstream negatively tilted mid-level trough and attendant area of enhanced mid-level flow are forecast to move onshore over portions of the western CONUS through the overnight. ...Southern California: Santa Barbara South Coast... Sundowner winds are expected to increase across portions of the Santa Barbara South Coast and adjacent foothills Day 1/Saturday afternoon/evening as northerly low-level flow is enhanced with the aforementioned trough passing over the Pacific Northwest. While sustained surface winds will generally remain around 15-20 mph, strong wind gusts of 25-40 mph are possible (locally 50+ mph in terrain favored areas). Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are expected as these winds overlap areas with minimum RH value around 15-20% (locally below 15%) and receptive fuels for fire spread. Poor RH recoveries may promote elevated fire weather conditions through the overnight and into Day 2/Sunday morning -- especially in areas above 1000 ft where RH values may remain below 20%. ...Pacific Northwest into Nevada... Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage over portions of the Cascades in Oregon/Washington (and perhaps far Northern California) during the late afternoon/evening as ascent associated with the aforementioned negatively tilted trough moves onshore. While a lightning ignition remains possible, thunderstorms should remain mostly wet precluding an isolated dry thunderstorm area. A slightly better chance for a lightning ignition exists across Nevada, where thunderstorms should develop during the afternoon. While storm motions will be relatively fast and precipitable water values generally around 0.75", recent precipitation over the past few days coupled with the expected scattered to widespread coverage precludes an isolated dry thunderstorm area at this time. ..Elliott.. 09/07/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 PM CDT Fri Sep 06 2019 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough -- located over the northern Rockies vicinity Day 1/Saturday morning -- is forecast to move eastward over the northern/central plains through the day. Meanwhile, an upstream negatively tilted mid-level trough and attendant area of enhanced mid-level flow are forecast to move onshore over portions of the western CONUS through the overnight. ...Southern California: Santa Barbara South Coast... Sundowner winds are expected to increase across portions of the Santa Barbara South Coast and adjacent foothills Day 1/Saturday afternoon/evening as northerly low-level flow is enhanced with the aforementioned trough passing over the Pacific Northwest. While sustained surface winds will generally remain around 15-20 mph, strong wind gusts of 25-40 mph are possible (locally 50+ mph in terrain favored areas). Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are expected as these winds overlap areas with minimum RH value around 15-20% (locally below 15%) and receptive fuels for fire spread. Poor RH recoveries may promote elevated fire weather conditions through the overnight and into Day 2/Sunday morning -- especially in areas above 1000 ft where RH values may remain below 20%. ...Pacific Northwest into Nevada... Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage over portions of the Cascades in Oregon/Washington (and perhaps far Northern California) during the late afternoon/evening as ascent associated with the aforementioned negatively tilted trough moves onshore. While a lightning ignition remains possible, thunderstorms should remain mostly wet precluding an isolated dry thunderstorm area. A slightly better chance for a lightning ignition exists across Nevada, where thunderstorms should develop during the afternoon. While storm motions will be relatively fast and precipitable water values generally around 0.75", recent precipitation over the past few days coupled with the expected scattered to widespread coverage precludes an isolated dry thunderstorm area at this time. ..Elliott.. 09/07/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 PM CDT Fri Sep 06 2019 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough -- located over the northern Rockies vicinity Day 1/Saturday morning -- is forecast to move eastward over the northern/central plains through the day. Meanwhile, an upstream negatively tilted mid-level trough and attendant area of enhanced mid-level flow are forecast to move onshore over portions of the western CONUS through the overnight. ...Southern California: Santa Barbara South Coast... Sundowner winds are expected to increase across portions of the Santa Barbara South Coast and adjacent foothills Day 1/Saturday afternoon/evening as northerly low-level flow is enhanced with the aforementioned trough passing over the Pacific Northwest. While sustained surface winds will generally remain around 15-20 mph, strong wind gusts of 25-40 mph are possible (locally 50+ mph in terrain favored areas). Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are expected as these winds overlap areas with minimum RH value around 15-20% (locally below 15%) and receptive fuels for fire spread. Poor RH recoveries may promote elevated fire weather conditions through the overnight and into Day 2/Sunday morning -- especially in areas above 1000 ft where RH values may remain below 20%. ...Pacific Northwest into Nevada... Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage over portions of the Cascades in Oregon/Washington (and perhaps far Northern California) during the late afternoon/evening as ascent associated with the aforementioned negatively tilted trough moves onshore. While a lightning ignition remains possible, thunderstorms should remain mostly wet precluding an isolated dry thunderstorm area. A slightly better chance for a lightning ignition exists across Nevada, where thunderstorms should develop during the afternoon. While storm motions will be relatively fast and precipitable water values generally around 0.75", recent precipitation over the past few days coupled with the expected scattered to widespread coverage precludes an isolated dry thunderstorm area at this time. ..Elliott.. 09/07/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 07 Sep 2019 02:33:07 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 07 Sep 2019 02:33:07 GMT

Issued at 500 PM HST Fri Sep 06 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 070231 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Juliette Discussion Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019 500 PM HST Fri Sep 06 2019 Juliette continues to slowly weaken. Cloud tops have gradually warmed since the last advisory and several recent microwave overpasses show that convection is now limited to the eastern half of the cyclone. The intensity has been lowered to 55 kt based on the latest TAFB Dvorak fix. No substantial changes were made to the NHC track or intensity forecasts. Juliette is located over 23-24 deg C waters, and will remain over fairly cool waters for the next several days. Continued weakening appears inevitable and Juliette is forecast to become a remnant low within 48 h. Although the system will reach marginally warmer waters to the west by the end of the forecast period, it will have weakened enough that significant regeneration is unlikely at that time. The initial motion remains west-northwestward at 11 kt. Juliette should turn westward on Saturday as it weakens further and is steered entirely by low-level easterly flow. All of the models forecast that the tropical storm/remnant low will then continue westward for several days thereafter. The NHC forecast is very close to the East Pacific multi-model consensus TVCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0300Z 23.7N 126.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 07/1200Z 24.1N 127.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 08/0000Z 24.2N 129.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 08/1200Z 24.1N 132.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 09/0000Z 24.0N 134.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 10/0000Z 23.9N 138.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 11/0000Z 24.0N 142.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 12/0000Z 24.0N 145.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 07 2019 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 070231 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019 0300 UTC SAT SEP 07 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 126.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 25N 125W 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 130W 34 1 32(33) 6(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) 25N 130W 50 X 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 25N 130W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 6(19) X(19) X(19) 25N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 7(13) 1(14) 25N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

Issued at 500 PM HST Fri Sep 06 2019 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 070231 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Juliette Advisory Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019 500 PM HST Fri Sep 06 2019 ...JULIETTE SLOWLY WEAKENING... SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.7N 126.0W ABOUT 1020 MI...1645 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Juliette was located near latitude 23.7 North, longitude 126.0 West. Juliette is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). The tropical storm is forecast to turn westward on Saturday, and it should continue moving westward through early next week. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady weakening is forecast and Juliette will likely become a remnant low by Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

...JULIETTE SLOWLY WEAKENING... As of 5:00 PM HST Fri Sep 6 the center of Juliette was located near 23.7, -126.0 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 07 2019 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 070230 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019 0300 UTC SAT SEP 07 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 126.0W AT 07/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 50SE 50SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 126.0W AT 07/0300Z AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.6N 125.5W FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 24.1N 127.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 30SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 24.2N 129.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 20SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 24.1N 132.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 24.0N 134.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 23.9N 138.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 24.0N 142.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 24.0N 145.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.7N 126.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 PM CDT Fri Sep 06 2019 Valid 070100Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong storms could still pose at least some risk for severe hail and wind across parts of eastern Wyoming into mid evening. ...01Z Outlook Update... Strong convection lingers within weak surface troughing north through east of the Laramie mountains. This includes a small cluster of storms north of Douglas WY, which may be supported by forcing associated with a locally enhanced area of warm advection. Beneath 30-40 kt west-southwesterly 500 mb flow, deep layer shear across eastern Wyoming is strong, and boundary layer instability may remain sufficient to maintain at least some severe hail/wind risk into the 01-03Z time frame. Overnight, a broader area of lower/mid tropospheric warm advection may maintain thunderstorm development eastward through portions of western and central South Dakota and Nebraska, before diminishing. Otherwise, a couple of strong storms may linger through mid evening across parts of the northern intermountain region and Great Basin. However, due to increasingly sparse coverage, severe weather potential is becoming increasingly negligible. ..Kerr.. 09/07/2019 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 PM CDT Fri Sep 06 2019 Valid 070100Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong storms could still pose at least some risk for severe hail and wind across parts of eastern Wyoming into mid evening. ...01Z Outlook Update... Strong convection lingers within weak surface troughing north through east of the Laramie mountains. This includes a small cluster of storms north of Douglas WY, which may be supported by forcing associated with a locally enhanced area of warm advection. Beneath 30-40 kt west-southwesterly 500 mb flow, deep layer shear across eastern Wyoming is strong, and boundary layer instability may remain sufficient to maintain at least some severe hail/wind risk into the 01-03Z time frame. Overnight, a broader area of lower/mid tropospheric warm advection may maintain thunderstorm development eastward through portions of western and central South Dakota and Nebraska, before diminishing. Otherwise, a couple of strong storms may linger through mid evening across parts of the northern intermountain region and Great Basin. However, due to increasingly sparse coverage, severe weather potential is becoming increasingly negligible. ..Kerr.. 09/07/2019 Read more

No watches are valid as of Fri Sep 6 23:26:04 UTC 2019.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 062307
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Fri Sep 6 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Juliette, located nearly 1000 miles west of the southern tip
of the Baja California peninsula.

An area of low pressure is expected to form early next week a few
hundred miles southwest of the southern coast of Mexico. Gradual
development of this system is possible thereafter as it moves
west-northwestward at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Latto

MD 1936 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN WY
Mesoscale Discussion 1936 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0605 PM CDT Fri Sep 06 2019 Areas affected...Eastern WY Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 062305Z - 070100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Isolated strong wind gusts are possible across eastern WY for the next several hours. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm coverage has gradually increased over the past few hours as lift attendant to the shortwave trough moving through the northern Rockies interacts with an air mass destabilized by daytime heating and modest upslope flow. Overall, storms have quickly become outflow dominant, largely a result of limited instability and strong dry air entrainment. Well-defined outflow moving northeastward into east-central WY will continue to promote brief updrafts along its leading edge. Some additional, more cellular activity is possible along the lee troughing. A deeply mixed boundary layer will contribute to the potential for strong downbursts. ..Mosier/Thompson.. 09/06/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...RIW... LAT...LON 42990749 43610742 44440653 44370476 42980425 41130415 41090563 42260675 42990749 Read more

The Canyon 66 prescribed burn began Tuesday, September 3 on the Lookout Mountain Ranger District of Ochoco National Forest with the intent to treat just over 5,000 acres over the course of two or three days.The Lookout Mountain Ranger District of the Ochoco National Forest first attempted the treatment last fall, but called off the project because fuels were too dry. This year, fuels within the unit have been too wet and green to attempt the burn. Managers expect that with current hot weather, fuels within the Canyon 66 unit will dry enough to adequately consume and meet prescription.Preparation work that began last year was finished prior to the burn. Workers prepared containment lines around the unit by removing brush, tree limbs, and other fuels, and digging hand lines in strategic places. Signs notifying the public of the planned activities are located around the unit. Drone reconnaissance is ongoing. Firefighters from Crook County Fire & Rescue, the Sunriver Fire Department, and...

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Sep 6 21:25:03 UTC 2019.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 06 Sep 2019 20:38:19 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 06 Sep 2019 21:38:29 GMT

Issued at 1100 AM HST Fri Sep 06 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 062037 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Juliette Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019 1100 AM HST Fri Sep 06 2019 Deep convection associated with Juliette has continued to gradually decrease in coverage and organization today. The various satellite intensity estimates have continued to slowly decline, and now support an initial intensity of 60 kt. The tropical storm will be moving over cooler waters and into a more stable environment during the next 24 to 36 hours. This should result in steady weakening and Juliette is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low in 36 to 48 hours. The system will be moving back over slightly warmer waters later in the forecast period, but westerly shear should prevent any re-organization. Juliette is now moving west-northwestward or 295/11 kt. There has been no change to the track forecast reasoning. The cyclone should continue west-northwestward tonight, and then turn westward on Saturday as it weakens and is steered by the low-level easterly flow. The track guidance remains in good agreement but has trended slightly faster once again. The new official forecast was adjusted accordingly, and is once again near the TVCE multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 23.4N 124.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 07/0600Z 23.8N 126.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 07/1800Z 24.1N 128.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 08/0600Z 24.1N 130.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 08/1800Z 23.9N 133.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 09/1800Z 23.7N 137.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 10/1800Z 23.5N 140.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 11/1800Z 24.0N 144.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown